jmtaberne msc essay effective development planning

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University of Bristol

Department of Social Policy & Social Planning

MSc course in Development Administration & Planning

Name: José-María Taberné Abad

Essay Title: What do you consider to be the major constraints on effective planning inthe developing countries? Which of these constraints can be overcome and how?.

Module Title: Development Planning: Theory, Policy and Process.

Lecturer: Pervaiz Nazir

Spring Term 1995



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Development is a much more complex concept than was once imagined; there are no

obvious answers to many of the most fundamental problems affecting the Third World1.

Among the tools devised to solve these problems is Planning: a continuous process

which involves decisions, or choices, about alternative ways of using available

resources, with the aim of achieving particular goals at some time in the future2. This

inter-disciplinary process entered into crisis from its very beginning: Soviet Union's

'planned economy' of the Gosplan, whose essential business was to create new

industries rather than run them, chose to give immediate priority to the basic heavy

industries and energy-production which were the foundation of any industrial economy.

The drawback of this procedure was an enormous bureaucratisation and malfunction of

the economic apparatus as well as other parts of the system3. As long as the economy

remained at semi-subsistence level and had to merely lay the foundation for modern

industry, this rough-and-ready system worked. In an economy isolated from foreign

influence, command industrialization, with all its waste and inefficiencies, worked

impressively4; things are different in the sophisticated labyrinth of modern, mixed

economies.

The 'crisis of planning' unfolded during the 1960s, especially in the developing

countries: The concern with economic objectives was manifested in a preoccupation

with macroeconomic planning and to a lesser extent, with the planning of major

economic development projects. The other important aspect of development planning at

the time was its methodological approach. This approach could be criticized on a

number of counts: Firstly, there tended to be far too much emphasis on simply writing



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plans or vetting projects. This blueprint for the future, often incorporating totally

unrealistic objectives, frequently became an end in itself rather than a means for

achieving development. Secondly, such plans were rarely 'operationally oriented' and no

real attempt was made to consider how they might be implemented. Indeed, the gap

between planning and implementation was, and still is, one of the major shortcomings

of planning in the Third World, and it is consequently an issue which has received

significant attention in recent years. Thirdly, many economic development plans were

excessively rigid. Killick (1981) suggests that this may be counter-productive, if not

damaging, to a country's interests if the government's ability to adjust and respond to

changes in economic environment is impaired. He also argues that the need for short-

term economic management may not be adequately recognized if government is

preoccupied with medium-term development planning. Fourthly, there were problems

resulting from the nature of the relationships and the interactions that occured between

the politician, the planner and the traditional administrator, what Seers 5 termed 'the

basic triangle of forces'.

This list of planning shortcomings, already detected over a decade of global steady

economic progress, has grown bigger in the latter times because of the globalization of

the economy and the various crises which have occured since the 1970s. The many

practical problems facing the planner in the Third World -ranging from inadequate data

to acute shortages of essential administrative resources to rapid internal and external

political and economic changes- limit the extent to which any systematic approach to

planning can be adopted.



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Roughly speaking, there are internal and external constraints to planning. More

specifically, in this essay I will attempt firstly to describe the major constraints on

effective planning in the Third World at the organizational, operational and spatial levels

of planning. Secondly I will review some empirical evidence gathered from the National

Development Plan documents of a number of countries, namely Swaziland, Papua-New

Guinea, Tanzania, Zambia and Pakistan. To conclude, I will suggest the possibility of

overcoming some of the problems examined.

Internal and external constraints

An important part of planning involves forecasting, deciding what should be done and

the sequence in which the various activities should be performed in order to proceed in

a logical and orderly manner6. Thus modelling and forecasting occupy an important

place in the planning process, being models idealized representations of real-world

situations7. The concept of rationality is central to the notion of a cyclical planning

process, which is founded in principles of reasoning rather than simply on emotions or

guesswork. To be rational is necessary to be comprehensive. In the real world this is

quite impossible. Rationality must inevitably be limited8.

At the organizational level, it is especially important to take into consideration the

political system in the country concerned (for example, the way in which political

leaders come to power, whether it is one-party or multi-party system and the degree of

centralization or decentralization), the political ideology of the government in power and



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the social structure of the society. The situation in most developing countries is so

different from that in the countries where many of the basic concepts and techniques of

planning have evolved that one is forced on many occasions to question the applicability

of these concepts and techniques9.

We can also distinguish two different aspects of planning organization: organizational

structures and organizational procedures. The former refers to the division of labour

into various tasks to be performed and the coordination of these tasks to accomplish the

activity. The latter refers to the various administrative procedures which can be used to

achieve either the vertical or horizontal coordination within an organization10. The

organization of planning is an extremely complex affair because it involves coordination

between so many different groups, each one with its own interests and priorities11.

Planning and policy-making are not always clearly separable activities. The question of

what is and what is not a policy issue depends very much on what sort of issues happen

to be especially controversial, sensitive or 'political' in any particular situation12. So the

division of responsibility between politicians, planners and administrators is a gross

over-simplification of reality. Politicians often provide actual directives about alternative

courses of action. The administrators involvement is very important because they are

the people who will have to implement the plans and they are unlikely to be

enthusiastic about the implementation if they consider the plans to be unworkable or

undesirable13. The main role of the professional planner is to act as a coordinator,

collecting and analyzing the information and proposals for action provided by the others,

rather than actually making the decisions himself 14. Professional planners are frequently



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frustrated by what they often regard as 'political interference' 15. Progress is also

impeded by disorganized competition in some countries among more or less

autonomous public and semipublic agencies and local, state and central governments

for foreign exchange, local currency and other scarce resources essential for carrying

out investment projects and programs16.

From the operational standpoint, Central planning agencies' credibility, impartiality and

technical competence are likely to be questioned as a result of the power struggles over

short-term practical issues. The consequence has been either giving up the quest for

relevance to actual decisionmaking and taking refuge in the preparation of medium- and

long-term plans for their own sake, or a concentration on providing technical support for

short-term political decisions and the abandonment of any serious attempt at examining

medium- and long-term development issues17. However, in most developing countries

the basic weakness is not the absence of a comprehensive approach to development

planning, but a shortage of soundly conceived projects. Most countries run into great

difficulties, not in formulating over-all plans, but in preparing and carrying out projects

and in operating them efficiently when completed. In part, this is because planners,

who are mostly trained as economists, are better versed in the broader "macro-

economics" of model-building than they are in "micro-economics" of project preparation

and evaluation18.

Unfortunately, it is all too often the case that technical sophistication assumes too

important role in planning, and that the development and application of particular



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techniques become ends in themselves19. In many Third World countries data problems

are extremely acute and this factor, coupled with shortages of skilled manpower and

resources, make it even more necessary to adopt a pragmatic approach. In advocating

a rational approach to decision-making it is often all too easy to create the impression

that both planning and decision-making should be viewed as objective, technical

processes. This is a dangerous fallacy as it ignores the fundamentally political nature of

the decision-making process20 as explained in the above organisational aspects. To

devise 'quick and reasonably clean' methods of data collection is not an easy task since

there are four general approaches: Natural resource surveys; collection of national

statistics; social surveys for specific purposes; and participant observation21 all of which

suppose many operational difficulties. Also the same data may have to be treated in

several different ways, and that different kinds of data require different form of

treatment22 adding complexities to the generally resource-scarce planning systems.

Again, political evolutions may affect development planning like in India, whose

infirmities have arisen less from the deficiencies in the planning system than from a

fading national consensus on development goals and a decline in the commitment of

governments at the centre and in the states to substain the development process23.

Implementation is often regarded as something which is beyond the scope of planning

or planners. However, this does not mean that planners can ignore the implementation

stage24. Among specific operational limitations, we find that many times the main

barriers to be overcome are the lack of capital stock both in quantity and quality; so the



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development process would require the generation of adequate savings for rapid growth

of investment. These investible resources would have to be found mainly out of growing

incomes or external borrowing, as the average consumption levels are normally low25.

Also the rate of increase of the population often proves to be much higher than

assumed when drafting the Plans26. The centrality of capital goods and technology in the

development process may result in contradictions, for whilst considerable growth can be

achieved in the short run, it creates a dependence on the international economy

dominated by the developed countries27; a strategy of development that relies heavily

on imported technology can create a disjuncture between agriculture and industry, each

one depending on the outside economy for its inputs for production28. The process of

capital accumulation and transformation of the national economy may slow because the

production of capital goods and equipment and therefore capital expansion takes place

outside the national economy29, so affecting future operational results. Taking such

problems into account, especially in terms of the choice of planning techniques and the

operational aspects of planning does not prevent from being over-ambitious in

expectations.

At the spatial level of planning, we have comprehensive national development planning,

project planning, sectoral planning and 'integrated area' planning30. Ideas about what

would constitute effective local level economic planning remain ambiguous31. Too much

emphasis on projects tend to lead to a 'shopping list' approach to planning, in which

plans consist of no more than lists of projects (especially capital projects) submitted by

individual sectors, regions or other interest groups. Many national and, in particular,



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regional and local development plans are like this32. Inter-sectoral consistency and

spatial planning of infrastructure would continue to require effective forecasting of the

development of the private sector of industry33.

Among the external constraints to effective development planning, international

relationships between developed and developing countries34 play a particularly important

part. The concentration and internationalization of capital at the global level make

dependent development both a cause and consequence of the process of

internationalization, charaterised by two facets: centralization and concentration in the

one hand, and increasing though uneven penetration into various spheres of the global

economy. The increasing domination of the world economy by different circuits of

capital -productive, money and commodity capitals- can result in the incorporation of

segments of the national and local economy hitherto unincorporated or only partially

incorporated35. The 1980 report of the Brandt Commission adopted the view that

continued interdependence between North and South is more or less inevitable but

maintained that both parties can benefit fron this relationship. It recommended a

number of measures-including more aid from the North to the South, improvements of

the terms of trade and a new international monetary order- designed to improve the

relative position of the South36. The deteriorating terms of trade make most developing

countries heavily dependent economically on the North and also, through more subtle

ties, socially and politically dependent37. Currency exchange rates, the formation and

exclusion of trading blocks, international energy and financial crisis, even the role of the

MNCs through which many international economic relations are mediated38 are



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elements, among others, that inevitably affect effective planning. The current orthodoxy

of the World Bank that 'comprehensive planning' has not worked39 is a clear example of

direct external influences on the matter.

Empirical evidence

Factual evidence of the above elements can be found in several development plans: The

Government of Papua-New Guinea identified a series of problems affecting the success

in achieving its 1984 development objectives: a clear definition of the role of the public

sector in development was required; co-ordination of national policy between central

and operating bodies of government needed to be improved; management, planning

and priority setting capabilities within departments needed to be improved to enable

increased delegation of responsibility to implementing and sectoral agencies; manpower

development programmes were required in the public sector; and personnel and

general government procedures needed to be codified40.

The evaluation of Tanzania's First Plan indicated the following shortfalls: Crop

husbandry, following the sharp change in market prospects; failure to generate

industrial growth at the rates suggested in the Plan; growth in the construction sector

was dissipated in rising prices; and overestimation of the rate of growth generated by

the service sector41. Zambia's Second Plan was marked by difficulties compounded by

the oil crisis, break-up of international monetary system, world inflation and recession

and the consequent collapse in copper prices42. Also in Africa, Swaziland is part of the



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Common Monetary Area with the Lilangeni linked to South Africa's Rand at par. Thus

changes in South Africa's economic performance and policies were of major concern for

the Government of Swaziland43. The scenario of development achievements described in

the Plan were based in the crucial assumption that the negotiations between the ANC

and the Government would be resumed in 1993.

In Pakistan, the dimensions of the First Plan were modest: it did not receive formal

approval of the government until 1957, and never received full support till the new

Government came into power. The financial resources available for development

purposes fell short of expectations. Prices of exports, agriculture sector imports and

cutbacks in allocations to the private sector severely affected Plan implementation,

upsetting the cost calculation. Its Second Plan placed greater reliance on market

mechanisms and fiscal and monetary policies, although identifying a delicate problem of

balance in the decision concerning what share of production of goods and services

should go to improve living standards, and what share be withheld to build up the

nation's capital stock. It also took into account the problems of technical and

administrative feasibility. Third Plan was the first Perspective Plan as planners felt that

five-year plans were inadequate as a framework for long-term growth. These Plans

were successful even with the increases of population, defence expenditure,

concentration of economic power and the traumatic separation of East Pakistan as

internal events, plus the rise in energy prices and World inflation in the international

scenario44.

Possible solutions



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Planning is itself an attempt to reduce uncertainity. The problem can be tackled firstly

by looking at the sources of uncertainity and secondly by adopting a flexible approach.

There are uncertainities about the general environment within which planning takes

place -the world that is outside of the specific decision-making systems actually involved

in planning, such as what changes will occur in the international economic situation.

There are uncertainities also in what are termed 'related fields of choice' as well as

about the appropriate value judgements, such as the preferences that politicians and

the general public have with regard to different policy options45.

As people became aware during the 1960s that development involves more than just

economic growth and that, in fact, economic growth may sometimes hamper the

achievement of other goals -such as social equity- it became obvious that development

planning must also adopt a broader approach. The scope of development planning

should include more than just the economic aspects of planning46, thus taking into

account political, social and physical environmental considerations as well as economic

factors47. Even economists -a notably contentious tribe48-, agree that the project-by-

project approach has serious shortcomings. Sometimes accompanied by economic

policies intended to promote development, the approach is nevertheless characteristic

of governments without a clearly defined long-term outlook. An Integrated Public

Investment Plan starts with individual projects which are combined into sector programs

and then into an investment plan for the public sector. As for comprehensive planning,

without having first learned how to prepare and execute the two abovementioned



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methodologies, it has generally proved impossible for less developed countries to take

on simultaneously the more difficult task of planning comprehensively for both public

and private sectors49.

The changes involved in 'egalitarian' planning can be divided into three types: Firstly,

there are changes in the development policies which provide the framework for

planning. Secondly, there are changes in planning techniques. Concern with the

distribution of the benefits -and costs- of development demands a new approach to the

assessment of alternative development policies and programmes. Thirdly, there are

changes in the organization of planning, emphasizing that an egalitarian approach to

planning should involve greater popular participation in the planning process 'so that

social choices reflect the needs and preferences of all social groups'50. Attempts to find

more appropriate political and administrative systems, reform the educational

curriculum, redefine standards for the provision of certain services, and encourage or

revive traditional cultural forms51.

Comprehensive planning, a synoptic view of people, place and work 52, entails ability to

analize; selective involvement in, rather than isolation from the international economy,

and for selective rather than no use of imported technology, which complements

instead of constraining national development53, means pragmatism. Capital and skilled

manpower may be difficult to obtain54. Every effort to gather human and financial

capital, plus realistic opportunism and real world analytic capabilities will result in

improved development planning.



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ENDNOTES

1. Conyers, D. (1994), p.372. Ibid, p.33. Hobsbawm, E. (1994), p.380

4. Conyers, D. (1994), p.465. Ibid, p.xv6. Ibid, p.77. Ibid, p.1178. Ibid, p.689. Ibid, p.1710. Ibid, p.18511. Ibid, p.18912. Ibid, p.1613. Ibid, p.17

14. Ibid, p.1415. Ibid, p.1816. Waterston, A. (1969), p.9017. Sagasti, F. (1988), p.43518. Waterston, A. (1969), p.8319. Conyers, D. (1994), p.8320. Ibid p.6921. Ibid, p.10322. Ibid, p.11023. Byres, T. p.108

24. Conyers, D. (1994), p.8025. Byres, T. p.7526. Ibid, p.7627. Nazir, P. (1991), p.17228. Ibid.29. Ibid.30. Conyers, D. (1994), p.1131. Byres, T. (1993) p.10332. Conyers, D. (1994), p.19533. Byres, T. (1993), p.90

34. Conyers, D. (1994), p.3335. Nazir, P. (1991), p.2736. Conyers, D. (1994), p.3537. Ibid, p.3438. Nazir, P. (1991), p.3439. Byres, T. (1993), p.9040. Papua-New Guinea National Expenditure Plan (1984), p.3941. Tanzania Second Five-year Plan (1969)42. Zambia Third National Development Plan (1967), p.20843. Swaziland Development Plan (1993)44. Second (1960), Third (1965), Fifth (1978) Five-year Plans. Government of



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Pakistan.45. Conyers, D. (1994), p.7046. Ibid, p.4747. Ibid, p.4848. Hobsbawm, E. (1994) p.274

49. Waterston, A. (1969), p.6250. Conyers, D. (1994), p.5051. Ibid, p.3552. Ibid, p.5453. Nazir, P. (1991), p.17754. Conyers, D. (1994), p.84



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BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Conyers, D. (1984) An introduction to development planning in the Third World.Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.

2. Hobsbawm, E. (1994) Age of Extremes. London: Michael Joseph Ltd.

3. Byres, T. (1993) The State and Development Planning in India. New Delhi: OxfordUniversity Press.

4. Sagasti, F. (1988) National Development Planning in Turbulent Times. WorldDevelopment, Vol. 16, No. 4.

5. Waterston, A. (1969) Development Planning: Lessons of Experience. Baltimore: TheJohns Hopkins University Press.

6. Nazir, P. (1991). Local Development in the Global Economy. Hants: Avebury.

7. Papua-New Guinea: The National Public Expenditure Plan 1984/87. National PlanningOffice. Waigani 1993.

8. Tanzania Second Five-year Plan 1969/74. The Government Printer. Dar-es-Salaam,

1969.

9. Zambia Third National Development Plan 1979/83. Office of the President. NationalCommission for Development Planning. Lusaka, 1979.

10. Swaziland Development Plan 1993/96. Economic Planning Office. Mbabane 1993.

11. Second Five-year Plan 1960/65. Government of Pakistan Planning Commission.1960.

12. Third Five-year Plan 1965/70. Government of Pakistan Planning Commission. 1960.

13. Fifth Five-year Plan 1978/83. Government of Pakistan Planning Commission. 1978.

14. Metra Consulting (1986). Handbook of National Development Plans. London:Graham & Trotman.

jmtaberne msc essay effective development planning

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