job displacement and crime: evidence from danish micro data · what we’re doing i unique danish...
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Job Displacement and Crime:Evidence from Danish Micro Data
Patrick Bennett (Norwegian School of Economics)
Amine Ouazad (Ecole polytechnique)
Global Labor Markets Conference, September 2016
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Unemployment ! Crime
IWhat are the consequences of unemployment?
I Impacts above and beyond the employer-employee pair ! jobseparations may not be efficient.
IWhat causes crime?
I Significant social costs of crime. Crime a key driver ofpoliticians’ approval rates.
I1990-2016: coincidence of crime and unemployment peaks inthe US and in Denmark.
I But Levitt (2004): the economy has too small an effect.I Studies of the effect of unemployment on crime combine
county-level (or equiv) data with an IV (exchange rate,industrial spec. a la Bartik).
I ) Captures the overall impacts of unemployment conditionalon validity of IV.
I Significant impacts of unemployment on property crime.
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What we’re doingI Unique Danish administrative 1985-2000 individual data to
estimate the impact of individual job separation )individual crime.
I Using job displacement as an arguably idiosyncratic driver ofjob separations.
I Checks placebo tests and pre-displacement trends.I Estimates family dynamics following displacement.I How local income inequality magnifies displacement impacts.I Incarceration periods correlated with largers earnings losses
post-displacement.I
Prior contributions use county-level or equivalent analysis:I Split total impact of unemployment on crime = Individual
impact + Spillover effects.I Unemployment effects vs Separations.
ITest of economic theory of crime:
I Earnings losses literature (Jacobson, Lalonde, Sullivan, AER,1993)with Becker’s (1968) theory of crime. Earnings losses !Property crime ?
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Outline
1. Danish registry: longitudinal individual history.2. Correlations of crime and transitions into unemployment.3. Idiosyncratic drivers of job separations: Mass layoffs and job
displacement.4. Main Results.5. Two extensions:
5.1 Family spillovers.5.2 Inequality and Crime.
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Danish Registry
I Database of every individuals residing in Denmark from1980-present.
1. Employment spells: Integrated Database for Labor Market
Research.
2. Unemployment spells: Central Register of Labor Market
Statistics.
3. Citations, arrests, convictions, prison terms: Central Police
Register.
4. Family ties, education: Population Register.
I Tied by an individual Central Person Register (CPR).I Focus on men, born 1945 to 1960, continuously in the sample.
Endogenous exit and reentry not a significant issue.
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Baseline Sample (1/2)
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Baseline Sample (2/2)
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Crime: Citations/Arrests ! Conviction
I We focus on citations/arrests occuring after job loss, andwhich lead to a conviction.
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Unemployment Transitions are Endogenous
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Unemployment Transitions are Endogenous
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Correlations between Observables and UnemploymentTransitions
I Similar signs for the correlation with crime and withdisplacement ! overestimate.
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Mass Layoffs and Job Displacement
Focusing on a sample of arguably sudden and unexpected jobseparations.
IMass layoffs: a decline in firm size of 30% or 40% comparedto
I (i) peak firm size in 1985-1990 (JLS definition)I (ii) average firm size in 1985-1990.I (iii) firm-specific size trend in 1985-1990 for declining firms.
I nj,t = ↵j + �j · t + "j,t on 1985 � 1990 used to predict
n̂j,t = ↵̂j + �̂j · t for t � 1990
IDisplaced workers: focus on workers least likely to loseemployment during a mass layoff event.
I Workers continuously employed between 1987 and 1989. Fulltime employment. Ten or more employees. Not enrolled ineducation.
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Displacement Rate along the Business Cycle
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Specification
I Baseline regression.
Crimeit =+7X
k=�5
�k · 1(Displaced in year t � k) + Individuali
+Yeart +Municipalitym(i ,t) + xit� + Constant + "it
I Effects �0, . . . , �7 relative to the pre-displacement year �1.I Placebo coefficients: ��5, ..., ��2.I Individual fixed effect: individual unobservables.I
Municipalitym(i ,t): municipality unobservables, differences inpolicing efforts.
I Multinomial, propensity score matching, fixed effect f.d./within! similar results.
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Impact of Job Displacement on Crime
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−4 −2 0 2 4 6
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Year Relative to Displacement
Pane
l Reg
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ion
Coe
ffici
ent
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Total
Property
DUI
Violent
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Robustness to Alternative Definitions
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0 2 4 6
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Year Relative to Displacement
Pane
l Reg
ress
ion
Coe
ffici
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Original
40% Threshold
Average 1985−1989
Firm−Specific Trend
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Placebo Test:Current convictions of Future Displaced Workers
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Incarceration: Larger Earnings Losses?I Mechanical incapacitation effect of incarceration on earnings.
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0 2 4 6
−120
000
−800
00−6
0000
−400
00−2
0000
0
years
earn
ings
.loss
es.c
onvi
cted
.not
.to.p
rison
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Convicted, not to prison
Convicted, to prison
Convicted, to prison (Predicted)
I Larger earnings losses than what is predicted by theincapacitation effect.
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Local Income Inequality and Displacement Impacts
I Impact of displacement is twice as high at P75 of Gini (+0.43)than at the P25 of Gini (+0.2 ppt).
I Results hold when excluding Copenhagen and Frederiksberg.
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Family Dissolution, Marital Status,and Intra-Family Crime Spillovers
I Pre-displacement marital status is a statistical predictor of theimpact of displacement on crime.
I Impact of job displacement on crime is +0.9 ppt for singleindividuals, +0.3 ppt for individuals with children, and +0.19ppt for 2-adult or more families.
I Displacement leads to long-run increases in the probability ofmariage dissolution.
I 0.9 ppt in the short run (year of displacement), 3.5 ppt sevenyears after displacement.
I Weak evidence of impacts of parental displacement on youngerfamily members’ crime.
I one year after displacement for sons’ property crime (+0.3ppt).
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Conclusion
I Find economically and statistically significant impacts ofdisplacement on crime.
I Inequality seems to magnify the impact of mass layoffs oncrime.
I Displacement leads to separations, but little evidence of familyspillovers.
I Incarceration correlated with larger, non-mechanical, earningslosses.
IInstitutional differences? External validity?
IPrior literature: Unemployment and Crime. Our paper:Displacement and crime.
I �Separation Rate + �Arrival Rate + �Wage distribution '�Unemployment
IPolicy implications: Impacts beyond employer-employee pair.
I Separations unlikely to be efficient: Blanchard and Tirole’s(2008) tax on layoffs.