Job Vacancy Durations Climb to Another New PeakAverage Duration Exceeds Six Weeks for Openings in Manufacturing

Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business

July 8, 2014

http://dicehiringindicators.com/

Statistical Products Derived from JOLTS Data

Charts and tables produced using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey following the analytical framework and measurement methods in Davis, Faberman and Haltiwanger (2012, 2013).

Steven J. Davisfaculty.chicagobooth.edu/steven.davis/

July 8, 2014

DecennialCensusHiring

Three-Month Moving Averages

Three-Month Moving Averages

Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working Days)By Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

May 2014Resources 12.0 12.1 17.8 17.9 13.7 18.9 18.9 20.0Construction 7.8 7.9 10.1 7.3 4.5 6.2 9.8 10.8Manufacturing 17.4 19.4 24.2 21.5 13.6 23.5 28.3 29.1Wholesale and Retail Trade 14.2 15.4 16.5 15.3 13.2 15.9 19.9 19.1Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 18.5 15.4 21.1 20.8 10.5 18.1 22.4 21.6Information 25.9 31.7 45.2 34.5 24.8 41.1 36.4 38.7Financial Services 28.0 31.0 34.7 27.6 25.7 33.8 35.6 36.3Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 20.3Education 21.2 24.1 26.4 22.5 18.3 20.8 23.4 23.7Health Services 39.1 34.6 38.3 36.3 29.8 33.6 34.9 35.3Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 14.2 16.2 14.9 10.6 13.4 16.7 19.7Other Services 22.3 17.5 20.2 23.8 17.1 18.6 20.1 20.1Government 32.9 29.7 32.6 35.9 32.2 33.1 35.5 35.4Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 23.3

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

May 2014Resources 0.99 1.08 1.03 1.05 0.70 1.01 0.98 1.08Construction 1.07 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.89 1.01 0.93 0.85Manufacturing 1.02 1.08 1.09 0.94 0.85 0.93 0.88 0.87Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.05 1.10 1.10 0.96 0.84 0.89 0.94 1.01Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 0.96 1.13 1.11 0.93 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.10Information 1.10 1.05 1.13 0.87 0.82 0.92 1.04 1.06Financial Services 1.05 1.07 1.13 0.99 0.84 0.86 0.98 0.90Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 1.00Education 1.00 0.97 1.03 1.05 0.97 0.98 0.94 0.99Health Services 1.08 1.03 1.04 1.01 0.93 0.89 0.93 0.94Leisure and Hospitality 1.08 1.08 1.09 0.97 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.93Other Services 1.01 1.10 1.01 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.97 0.94Government 1.06 1.02 1.09 0.92 0.86 0.93 0.94 0.96Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.97

Focus on Professional & Business Services Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working days)

By Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

May 2014Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 20.3Private 18.3 18.6 21.0 20.0 15.5 19.0 21.6 22.5Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 23.3

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period

 2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 Jan. 2014-

May 2014Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 1.00Private 1.05 1.08 1.07 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.96Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.97

Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment SizeSelected Time Periods

Class Size 2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Feb. 2014

1-9 19.25 18.29 17.30 19.83 12.76 16.55 18.89 21.5010-49 15.17 14.87 17.53 16.19 13.02 15.74 19.15 18.4350-249 15.72 16.87 19.44 18.33 15.26 17.93 20.96 20.44250-999 20.97 21.87 25.74 24.91 17.99 24.54 24.24 25.261000-4999 36.21 35.03 44.24 35.62 30.73 34.32 37.72 39.135000+ 47.41 43.67 37.06 39.56 40.61 55.09 56.44 65.76

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Establishment Size and Time Period

Class Size 2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Feb. 2014

1-9 0.99 1.10 1.06 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.9110-49 1.05 1.10 1.07 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.94 0.9350-249 1.09 1.07 1.09 0.93 0.81 0.90 0.92 0.95

250-999 1.06 1.07 1.07 0.91 0.83 0.94 1.00 0.97

1000-4999 1.06 1.06 0.99 1.04 0.84 0.94 0.96 0.945000+ 0.97 1.11 1.38 1.13 0.76 0.78 0.83 0.79

ReferencesDavis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2012), 

“Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 102, no. 3 (May), 584-588.

Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2013), “The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128, no. 2 (May), 581-622.

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