1

105%

96%

47%

39%

37%

36%

34%

31%

31%

30%

Solar photovoltaic installers

Wind turbine service technicians

Home health aides

Personal care aides

Physician assistants

Nurse practitioners

Statisticians

Physical therapist assistants

Software developers, applications

Mathematicians

The 10 fastest growing occupations

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

The 10 fastest declining occupations

-79%

-56%

-35%

-33%

-30%

-26%

-24%

-23%

-23%

-23%

Locomotive firers

Respiratory therapy technicians

Parking enforcement workers

Word processors and typists

Watch repairers

Electronic equipment installers and

Foundry mold and coremakers

Pourers and casters, metal

Computer operators

Telephone operators

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

[VALUE]k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2016-2026, Tables 1.3 and 1.5, 2

JOBS OF THE FUTURE VS. JOBS OF THE PAST

TREND: APPLICATIONS USING ROBOTICS INCREASING

ROBOT BARISTA AT CAFÉ X BURGER FLIPPING ROBOT AT CALIBURGER

AUTOMATED DELIVERY AT WOW BAO

ROBOT BARTENDER AT TIPSY ROBOT AUTOMATED MCDONALD’S KIOSK

3

Source: Freelancing in America 2017, Freelancers Union & Upwork

TREND: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EXPANDING

4

BASED ON RECENT MCKINSEY ANALYSIS, UP TO 33 PERCENT OF THE U.S. WORKFORCE MAY NEED TO CHANGE OCCUPATIONS BY 2030

CHALLENGE: WORKERS POTENTIALLY DISPLACED BY AUTOMATION

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, December 2017

[CATEGORY NAME]

[VALUE] million

[CATEGORY NAME]

[VALUE] million

[CATEGORY NAME]

[VALUE] million

NUMBER OF U.S. WORKERS DISPLACED BY AUTOMATION BY 2030

(in rapid automation scenario)

5

PREPARING WORKERS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY ECONOMY

WORKERS NEED ACCESS TO TRAINING THAT IS…

Ø  QUALITY Ø  AFFORDABLE Ø  SKILLS-BASED

6

U.S. WORKFORCE TRAINING SYSTEM HAS THREE MAIN COMPONENTS

7

3

GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT

1

TRADITIONAL EDUCATION

2

BUSINESS INVESTMENT

POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION & TRAINING

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of 2013 data from the Department of Education, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Government Accountability Office.

[CATEGORY NAME]

$413 billion

[CATEGORY NAME]

$177 billion

[CATEGORY NAME]

$347 billion

[CATEGORY NAME]

$60 billion

[CATEGORY NAME]

$47 billion

[CATEGORY NAME]

$18 billion

EMPLOYER-PROIVDED TRAINING AND TRADITIONAL FOUR-YEAR COLLEGES REPRESENT OVER 85% OF THE TOTAL $1.1 TRILLION INVESTED IN POSTSECONDARY WORKFORCE EDUCATION & TRAINING

ANNUAL U.S. SPENDING

8

9

$15.00

$17.00

$19.00

$21.00

$23.00

$25.00

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Rea

l hou

rly w

age

(201

3 do

llars

)

REAL ENTRY-LEVEL WAGES OF MALE AND FEMALE COLLEGE GRADUATES, 1979–2013

Men

Women

TRADITIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION

ENTRY-LEVEL HOURLY WAGES FELL BY OVER 5 PERCENT FOR COLLEGE GRADUATES FROM 2000 TO 2013

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of 2013 data from the Department of Education, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Government Accountability Office.

DECLINING EMPLOYER INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING

19.4

16.7

12.4 11.2

13.1 11.7

8.6 8.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

1996 2001 2004 2008

PERCENT OF U.S. WORKERS RECEIVING JOB-RELATED TRAINING

Employer-Paid Training On-the-Job Training

Note: Fraction of workers ages 18-65 receiving training of any duration last year. Source: Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (Employment and Training Topical Module); CEA calculation 10

11

TRAINING BY EDUCATION LEVEL

58%

25%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Bachelor's degree or higher

Some college High school diploma or less

SHARE OF FORMAL TRAINING SPENDING BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF TRAINEE, 2013

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce estimates based on analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Survey of Employer-Provided Training (1995) and U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (2013).

EMPLOYERS SPEND 58 PERCENT OF THEIR FORMAL TRAINING DOLLARS ON COLLEGE-EDUCATED WORKERS

Source: Future of Work Initiative analysis of OECD data, “Public expenditure and participant stocks on LMP,” August 2018.

LOW PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING

BETWEEN 1985 AND 2016, SPENDING ON WORKFORCE TRAINING PROGRAMS FELL AS A PERCENT OF GDP FROM 0.14% TO 0.03% IN THE UNITED STATES

12

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Trai

ning

exp

endi

ture

as

% o

f GD

P

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON U.S. WORKER TRAINING AS A PERCENTAGE

OF GDP

Source: Future of Work Initiative analysis of OECD data. 13

LOW PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING

60%

48%

37%

27%

20% 17% 16% 15%

12% 10% 7% 7%

4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Expe

nditu

re a

s pe

rcen

t of G

DP

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON WORKER TRAINING AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 2015

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

WE NEED A 21ST CENTURY TRAINING SYSTEM THAT:

•  Focuses on teaching in-demand skills •  Encourages lifelong learning •  Provides an alternative to college •  Incorporates – but is not dependent on – employers

14

TWO APPROACHES TO WORKER TRAINING

•  Worker Training Tax Credit: Establish a tax credit that could be used by small and large businesses to invest in training for their low- and middle-income workers

•  Corporate Accounting: Reform corporate accounting practices to treat training as an investment rather than expense.

•  Worker Representation: Corporate boards should worker representatives that are elected by the employees of the corporation.

ENCOURAGE BUSINESSES TO INVEST

•  Lifelong Learning & Training Accounts: Establish accounts that would be funded by workers, employers, and government, and could be used by workers to pay for education and training opportunities

•  JOBS Act: Expand Pell Grant eligibility to cover high-quality and rigorous short-term job training programs

•  Income Share Agreements (ISAs): Student receives education funding in exchange for an agreed upon percentage of post-graduation income over a defined number of years

HELP WORKERS GET TRAINING OUTSIDE OF EMPLOYERS

15

16

CONTACT INFORMATION

Ethan.Pollack@aspeninstitute.org

@EthanPollack @AspenFutureWork

www.aspeninstitute.org/futureofwork