joe twyman, yougov: fruitcakes, loonies, closet racists and winners
DESCRIPTION
Joe Twyman's presentation from Policy Exchange's event "Battle of the Pollsters: What do the European and local election results reveal about the prospects of our political parties?" Video and audio of the event can be found at http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/modevents/item/battle-of-the-pollsters-what-do-the-european-and-local-election-results-reveal-about-the-prospects-of-our-political-partiesTRANSCRIPT
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@JoeTwyman
Fruitcakes, Loonies, Closet Racists and Winners
Joe Twyman
Head of Political and Social Research (Europe, Middle East and Africa)
YouGov
Europe, the European Elections and the Rise of Ukip
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@JoeTwyman
Sticks and Stones
‘Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruit cakes and loonies and closet racists mostly’
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David Cameron, 4th April 2006
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@JoeTwyman
What the World Thinks
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@JoeTwyman4
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
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Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month
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@JoeTwyman5
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
April 2004 December 2013
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Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month
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@JoeTwyman6
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
April 2004 December 2013
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Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month
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@JoeTwyman7
The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)
April 2004 December 2013
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Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month
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R² = 0.70884020328559
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The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2012 – 2014)
3rd Jan 2012 9th May 2014
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Source: YouGov Daily Polling for News UK
Sample: c1,500 British adults per day
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The Rise of UKIP: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2014)
April 2004 May 2014Source: House of Commons Library
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@JoeTwyman10
The Rise of UKIP: The European Election Context
European Election
Result (May 2009)
European ElectionResult
(May 2014)
Conservative 28% 24%
UKIP 17% 27%
Labour 16% 25%
Liberal Democrat 14% 7%
Green 8% 8%
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@JoeTwyman11
The Rise of UKIP: The European Election Context
ActualResult
YouGov
UKIP 27 27
Lab 25 26
Con 24 22
Green 8 10
Lib Dem 7 9
Average Error
1.4
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@JoeTwyman12
The Rise of UKIP: The European Election Context
ActualResult
YouGov ICM Opinium TNS ComRes Survation
UKIP 27 27 25 32 31 33 32
Lab 25 26 29 25 28 27 27
Con 24 22 26 21 21 20 23
Green 8 10 6 6 6 6 4
Lib Dem 7 9 7 6 7 7 9
Average Error
1.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.8
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@JoeTwyman
Why They Think That
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@JoeTwyman14
The Ukip Vote: Winning here?
Source: YouGov Daily Polling Fieldwork: 31st March – 30th April 2014 Sample: 8,894 British Adults
Scotland
Under 40
Voted Lab in 2010
Voted Lib Dem in 2010
ABC 1
London
Women
All
Midlands / Wales
North
Men
40-59
South excl. London
C2DE
Aged 60+
Voted Con in 2010
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
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24
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36
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Percentage Voting Ukip in 2014 European Elections
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@JoeTwyman15
Most Important Issues Facing the Country
Source: YouGov for News UK Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British Adults
None of these
Don’t know
Transport
Family life & childcare
Tax
The environment
Crime
Pensions
Education
Europe
Housing
Welfare benefits
Health
Immigration & Asylum
The economy
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
1
2
3
7
10
11
12
14
15
17
18
28
34
51
57
Percentage of All Voters
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@JoeTwyman16
Most Important Issues Facing the Country
Source: YouGov for News UK Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2014 Sample: 2,144 British Adults
None of these
Don’t know
Transport
Family life & childcare
Tax
The environment
Crime
Pensions
Education
Europe
Housing
Welfare benefits
Health
Immigration & Asylum
The economy
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
1
0
2
3
6
4
10
12
5
49
13
28
25
85
45
Percentage of Ukip Voters
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@JoeTwyman17
Support for Europe versus Support for UKIP
April 2004 December 2013Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month
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10
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UKIP Support
Approve of Brit Membership of EU
Disapprove of Brit Membership of EU
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@JoeTwyman
The Three Ds
Dissatisfied Distrusting Disapproving
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@JoeTwyman19
In general, how much do you trust leading politicians from the main parties in Britain to tell the truth?
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28th April – 6th May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British Adults
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2 4 2 2 0
20
36
18
34
4
36
40
39
35
28
36
18
3720
67
62 4
91
Trust a great deal Trust to some extent Do not trust much Do not trust at all Don’t know
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@JoeTwyman20
On balance, do you think Britain is a better or worse place in which to grow up than it was thirty or forty years ago?
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28th April – 6th May 2014 Sample: 1,805 British Adults
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1826
19
38
6
19
23
20
19
11
55
45
55
36
82
8 5 6 61
It is better today than 30-40 years ago Neither better nor worseIt is worse today Don’t know
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@JoeTwyman21
From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is?
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2013 Sample: 1,765 British Adults
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
88
99
85 84
72
6
1
312
28
60
123
0
Safe (All) Unsafe (All) Don’t know
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@JoeTwyman22
From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is?
Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7th – 8th April 2013 Sample: 1,765 British Adults
GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 0 0 0
13
Dangerous
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@JoeTwyman
The 2014 European Elections in Context
The rise of Ukip is on a different scale to previous occasions and is not just about Europe
Part of a wider scepticism across many parts of Europe
European Elections have major implications for 2015 General Election
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