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Wisconsin Credit Union League

January 25, 2011

The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath

John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science

University of Wisconsin-Madison

John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011

In the words of the President… A “shellacking”

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

Seat

Ch

ange

in U

S H

ou

se

Seat

Ch

ange

in S

tate

s

Presidential Party Seat Change, US House and Lower Houses in States

States' lowerhouse

U.S. House

Incumbents in US House

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2004 2006 2008 2010

Dem lost

Dem <55%

Dem >60%

Rep lost

Rep <55%

Rep >60%



The biggest seat swing in over 60 years

-50

0

50

100

150

De

mo

cra

tic S

ea

t A

dvan

tag

e

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

*

Congress

Source: Barry Burden, UW-Madison

Why a shellacking?

Bad fundamentals: presidential approval


Why a shellacking?

Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy



Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy

Republican support among

voters who said:

House

2010 Vote R

House

2008 Vote R R Improvement

Nation’s economy in poor condition 71 29 42

Family’s financial situation worse 63 28 35

Very worried about economy 70 37 33

Why a shellacking?

Bad fundamentals: many seats up for grabs


Why a shellacking?

Bad fundamentals: many recently won seats


Add the common problems of a party regaining

unified control of government

Add a well-mobilized, motivated grassroots

opposition

Add a stronger, more experienced pool of

Republican candidates

And a shellacking is the result

Why a shellacking?



Fundamentals at work

Source: Eric McGhee

Democrats lost

vote share in 89

percent of

House districts

Nearly every

demographic

group moved

toward the GOP


Strongest Republican supporters

The result?

From the most liberal to most conservative

House overnight

Source: Adam Bonica,

ideologicalcartography.com John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011

http://abonica.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/median_party_means_102_1121.jpg

The result?

And the return of divided government…

- Reagan 1981-86 (Rep Senate, Dem House)

- Reagan 1987-88 (Dem Senate, Dem House)

- Bush 1989-92 (Dem Senate, Dem House)

- Clinton 1995-2000 (Rep Senate, Rep House)

- Bush 2001-02 (Dem Senate, Rep House)

- Bush 2007-08 (Dem Senate, Dem House)

- Obama 2011-? (Dem Senate, Rep House)


. . . in a time of historically high party conflict

The result?

John Coleman and Charles Franklin, Wisconsin Credit Union League, January 25, 2011 Source: Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal

The result?

Major accomplishments are possible under these

conditions, but extremely difficult

Parties have different priorities, solutions, and electoral

incentives



What about Citizens United?

86.6%

House

Interest

group ads

Candidate

and party

ads

85.5%

Senate

Interest

group ads

Candidate

and party

ads

87.0%

Governor

Interest

group ads

Candidate

and party

ads

The vast majority of ads

were still run by candidates

and parties in 2010.

Source: Wesleyan Media Project

GOP holds its most seats in state legislatures since 1928

GOP gained about 700 seats nationally, most by either

party since 1966

Over 20 state legislative chamber switches to GOP. To

Dems: 0

Republicans control over 55 chambers, their most since

1952

Fifty fewer Democrats ran than in 2008, while 820 more

Republicans ran

The wave in the states: five quick facts


Republicans in Assembly, Wisconsin

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1947

1949

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1953

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1957

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1961

1963

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1969

1971

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1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011


Republicans in Senate, Wisconsin

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011


Largest postwar gains, Wisconsin legislature

Assembly Senate

Year Party Gain Year Party Gain

1958 Dem 22 1946 Rep 5

1970 Dem 19 1976 Dem 5

1948 Dem 15 1950 Dem 4

2010 Rep 14 1980 Rep 4

1946 Rep 13 2006 Dem 4

1954 Dem 11 2010 Rep 4

john coleman and charles franklin department of … credit union... · john coleman and charles...

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