john dumas director of wholesale market operations jeff billo manager of mid term planning dan jones...
TRANSCRIPT
John DumasDirector of Wholesale Market OperationsJeff BilloManager of Mid Term PlanningDan JonesDirector with Potomac Economics, the ERCOT IMM
Board of Directors Meeting
ERCOT PublicSeptember 18, 2012
Tab 6: ERCOT West Texas Congestion Management
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$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120
W_TO_N(-)
VALIMP(-)
LON_HI_NEDIN1_1(LON_HILL-NEDIN)
AIR_W_DE_1(W_DENT-JMCRSTL)
ODNTH_FMR1(ODNTH-ODNTH)
GT_MID90_A(GT-MID)
591__A(CRLNW-LKPNT)
MARION_4AT2(MARION-MARION)
SNGZEN99_A(SNG-ZEN)
NICOLE_OAKC1_1(NICOLE-OAKC)
Congestion Rent in $ million
Nam
e of
Con
stra
ints
Top 10 Constraints by Total Congestion Rent (Jan-Dec, 2011)
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
2011 Top 10 Constraints by Total RT Congestion Rent
ERCOT PublicTab 6 2
• Source: Potomac Economics, the Independent Market Monitor for the ERCOT Region
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2012 YTD Top 10 Constraints by Total RT Congestion Rent
• Source: Potomac Economics, the Independent Market Monitor for the ERCOT Region
ERCOT PublicTab 6 3
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120
ODNTH_FMR1(ODNTH-ODNTH)
6215__A(BCKSW-CGRSW)
W_TO_N(W_TO_N)
2585_1(MOORE-DOWNIES)
SARC-SARC(SARC-SARC)
6475__F(ODESA-ODNTH)
590__A(LWSSW-LWVJS)
258T380_1(TURNER-BUDA)
6430__C(MOSSW-ANCTP)
269T362_1(BUTTER-WHITES)
Congestion Rent in $ million
Nam
e of
Con
stra
ints
Top 10 Constraints by Total Congestion Rent (Jan-Aug, 2012)
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
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Frequency of Odessa-area Constraints
ERCOT PublicTab 6 4
Sum of Duration HR:MN:SCRow Labels 6865__B 6915__A ODNTH_FMR1 6475__F Grand TotalBinding: At Limit 16:00:56 18:20:18 1041:38:50 27:59:57 1104:00:01Binding: Limit Violated 18:20:03 15:29:49 206:48:29 16:54:57 257:33:18Grand Total 34:20:59 33:50:07 1248:27:19 44:54:54 1361:33:19
Percent in TimeRow Labels 6865__B 6915__A ODNTH_FMR1 6475__F Grand TotalBinding: At Limit 0.27% 0.31% 17.79% 0.48% 18.85%Binding: Limit Violated 0.31% 0.26% 3.53% 0.29% 4.40%Grand Total 0.59% 0.58% 21.32% 0.77% 23.25%
End Time September 1, 2012Start Time January 1, 2012Difference (Hrs) 5856:00:00
Jan – Aug 2012 (Binding: At Limit and Binding: Limit Violated)
• Source: Potomac Economics, the Independent Market Monitor for the ERCOT Region
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West Texas Congestion
Source: July 2012 ERCOT System Planning Report presented at the August 16 2012 Reliability and Operations Subcommittee Meeting. The Estimated Congestion Rent is 2012 year-to-date through the end of July.
ERCOT PublicTab 6 5
Contingency Binding ElementEstimated Congestion Rent
$ (Shadow Price*Limit)
Amoco North Cowden Tap - Moss 138kV Odessa North 138/69 kV Autotransformer 73,038,421
Sacroc - Sun Switch 138 kV; or Golden Switch - Sun Switch 138 kV
China Grove - Bluff Creek 138 kV 27,183,561
BASE CASE West to North Stability Limit 26,831,248
Twin Buttes 345/138 kV AutotransformerSan Angelo Red Creek 345/138 kV
Autotransformer 218,360,051
Lewisville - Carrollton Northwest 345 kV Lewisville - Jones Street TNP 138 kV 16,918,023
Batesville 138/69 kV Autotransformer; or Batesville Switching Station - Paloduro
Substation 138 kV
Moore Switching Station - Downie Switching Station 138 kV
14,934,701
Midland East - Odessa EHV 345 kV Odessa - Odessa North 138 kV 14,524,826
*Highlighted cells represent West Texas-related congestion
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Load Growth in Far West Texas is the Primary Driver of the Increased Congestion Costs
• Load in the Far West Load Area increased by approximately 6.7% for the month of June between 2011 and 2012– For the month of July, the increase is approximately 7.3%
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Load
(MW
)
Hour Ending
Far West Load Comparison for June and July
2011 2012
ERCOT PublicTab 6 6
7
Price Spread Between West Load Zone and West Hub
• The table below shows the average real-time price difference between the LZ_WEST and HB_WEST comparing June and July of 2012 with June and July of 2011
Month
Avg. Real-Time SPPDifference
Between LZ and HB
CRR Monthly Auction HUB-LZ
PeakWD
2012 Annual CRR Auction HUB-LZ
PeakWDHB_WEST LZ_WEST
Jun.'11 31.26 38.44 7.18 3.00 N/AJul. '11 47.03 52.21 5.18 5.78 N/AJun.'12 26.57 44.23 17.66 8.15 3.46Jul. '12 26.21 50.50 24.29 13.41 3.88
6/11/126/25/12 7/12/12-
7/15/12
ERCOT PublicTab 6 7
8
Real-time Price Comparison Between Load Zones
• The table below shows the average real-time SPPs for the major Load Zones comparing June and July of 2012 with June and July of 2011
• West Load Zone prices in 2012 remain relatively unchanged from last year while other Load Zone prices have decreased
MonthAvg. Real-Time SPP
LZ_HOUSTON LZ_NORTH LZ_SOUTH LZ_WEST
Jun.'11 42.21 42.54 39.83 38.44
Jul. '11 43.21 46.52 41.73 52.21
Jun.'12 28.82 29.09 31.68 44.23
Jul. '12 26.09 26.91 26.58 50.50
6/26/12
ERCOT PublicTab 6 8
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History of Shadow Price Caps for West Congestion
• The shadow price cap was changed for the Odessa North 138/69 kV Autotransformer constraint on 1/1/12 to $2,274.64– This constraint was changed with the approval of the
new methodology for setting the caps– The limit was lowered starting 8/6/12 to $2,000 after
the net margin of $95,000 was met• The shadow price cap was also changed for Bluff
Creek Switch – China Grove Switch 138 kV on 5/3/12 to $2,000
ERCOT PublicTab 6 9
10 ERCOT PublicTab 6 10
Odessa North Area History
391 MW
480 MW
453 MW
465 MW
2009 2010 2011 2012
Five-Year Transmission Plan (5YTP) Peak Load for 2012 Actual Peak Load
2009 5YTP first identifies Odessa North-North Cowden upgrade (superseded in 2010 5YTP)
ERCOT 5YTP recommends convert part of Odessa 69 kV system to 138 kV serviceOncor plans
project
Oncor modifies plan to rebuild line as double circuit (2013, 2014: see next slide)
Oil = $53.48/
bbl
Oil = $71.21/
bbl
Oil = $87.04/
bbl
Oil = $93.02/
bbl
Permian Basin Units 5 and 6 RMR
Permian Basin Units 5 and 6 Mothball
375 MW
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Odessa North Area Planned Improvements
• Fall 2012 – Convert ~10-12 MW load from 69 kV to 138 kV service
• December 2013 – Rebuild Holt to Goldsmith South 69 kV line as double circuit 138/ 69 kV line; transfer 20-30 MW of load from 69 kV to 138 kV system (plan initiated in 2010)
• November 2014 – Rebuild Goldsmith South to Odessa North 69 kV line as double circuit 138/ 69 kV line (plan initiated in 2010)
• November 2014 – Rebuild Odessa to Odessa North 138 kV line (plan initiated in 2010)
• ~$20.3M cost estimate for above upgrades• Planned improvements solve Odessa North area reliability
problems in near term• ERCOT and Oncor are continuing to evaluate with latest load
projections
ERCOT PublicTab 6 11
12
Other West Texas Planned Improvements
• China Grove-Bluff Creek Planned Improvements– Located northeast of Midland
• Similar load growth to Odessa North Area
– June 2013 - Faraday/ Willow Valley Switch Station with 345/138 kV autotransformer will solve reliability issue
• Connects CREZ 345 kV line to existing 138 kV system• Planned in 2011 as economic project• ~$14.5M cost estimate
• San Angelo Red Creek Improvements– 2012 Congestion caused by forced outage of San Angelo Red Creek
Autotransformer 1– Autotransformer 1 placed back in service in July
• Solves reliability and congestion problem for 2012
– 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan identified need for additional autotransformer capacity at San Angelo Red Creek by 2014
– December 2014 – Replace both San Angelo Red Creek 345/138 kV autotransformers; ~$18.2M cost estimate
ERCOT PublicTab 6 12
13
Moore-Downie Area Planned Improvements
• Located southwest of San Antonio• New Uvalde to Castroville 138 kV line will solve
reliability problem• Approved by ERCOT Board of Directors in August
2006• Original planned in-service date was June 2010• Current in-service date projection is December 2012• ~$76.8M cost estimate
ERCOT PublicTab 6 13
14
Reliability – Congestion Cost Relationship
ERCOT PublicTab 6 14
Production cost impact of congestion
Price of congestion
Rel
iabi
lity
Lim
it
Constraint Loading
$
*Note: Curves are hypothetical and cost/price curves of a given constraint may differ
ReliabilityEconomic
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Summary
• West Load Zone prices in 2012 remain relatively unchanged from last year while other Load Zone prices have decreased– Load in West Texas has increased due to oil field activity– Prices in the rest of the system reflect lower loads due to lower
temperatures• The average real-time price difference between the LZ_WEST
and HB_WEST has increased in 2012 versus 2011 due to the management of overloaded elements.
• ERCOT has applied the “Holistic Solution” that was adopted by TAC & the Board in 2011 for the following Irresolvable by SCED constraints – Odessa North 138/69 kV Autotransformer– Bluff Creek Switch – China Grove Switch 138kV
• There are a number of Transmission upgrade initiatives that should improve the West Texas area
ERCOT PublicTab 6 15