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Tracking ‐‐ and Modeling ‐‐ Nativity In State and Sub‐state
Population Projections for California
John PitkinAnalysis and Forecasting, Inc, Cambridge, MA
Presentation to USC Annual Demographic Workshop
Los Angeles, CA, June 9, 2014
Components of Population Change, Southern California, 1970‐2010Period Population Change Change (average annual)
Births Deaths Natural Net MigrationIncrease Domestic Inter‐ Total
1970 9,956,000 1975 10,473,000 518,000 163,000 85,000 78,000 ‐94,000 119,000 25,0001980 11,622,000 1,149,000 181,000 85,000 95,000 ‐41,000 175,000 134,0001985 13,064,000 1,442,000 220,000 92,000 128,000 18,000 143,000 160,0001990 14,602,000 1,538,000 276,000 100,000 176,000 ‐37,000 168,000 131,0001995 15,195,000 593,000 327,000 102,000 225,000 ‐299,000 192,000 ‐107,0002000 16,443,000 1,248,000 288,000 105,000 184,000 ‐96,000 162,000 66,0002005 17,324,000 881,000 270,000 107,000 163,000 ‐112,000 125,000 13,0002010 18,052,000 728,000 273,000 108,000 165,000 ‐120,000 100,000 ‐19,000
Components of Population Change, Southern California, 1970‐2010Population Change Change (average annual)
Births DeathsNatura Net MigrationIncreasDomes Total
1970 9,956,000 1975 10,473,000 518,000 #### #### #### ##### #### 25,000
1980 11,622,000 1,149,000 #### #### #### ##### #### 134,000
1985 13,064,000 1,442,000 #### #### #### 18,000 #### 160,000
1990 14,602,000 1,538,000 #### #### #### ##### #### 131,000
1995 15,195,000 593,000 #### #### #### ##### #### ‐107,000
2000 16,443,000 1,248,000 #### #### #### ##### #### 66,000
2005 17,324,000 881,000 #### #### #### ##### #### 13,000
2010 18,052,000 728,000 #### #### #### ##### #### ‐19,000
national
Period ending Apr. 1
Components of Population Change, Southern California, 1970‐2010Populat Change Change (average annual)
Births Deaths Natural Net MigrationIncrease Domes Total
1970 #######
1975 ####### 518,000 163,000 85,000 78,000 ##### #### 25,000
1980 ####### ####### 181,000 85,000 95,000 ##### #### 134,000
1985 ####### ####### 220,000 92,000 128,000 18,000 #### 160,000
1990 ####### ####### 276,000 100,000 176,000 ##### #### 131,000
1995 ####### 593,000 327,000 102,000 225,000 ##### #### ‐107,000
2000 ####### ####### 288,000 105,000 184,000 ##### #### 66,000
2005 ####### 881,000 270,000 107,000 163,000 ##### #### 13,000
2010 ####### 728,000 273,000 108,000 165,000 ##### #### ‐19,000
national
Period ending Apr. 1
Components of Population Change, Southern California, 1970‐2010Populat Change Change (average annual)
Births DeathNaturaNet MigrationIncreaDomestic Total
1970 #######
1975 ####### 518,000 #### #### #### ‐94,000 119,000 25,0001980 ####### ####### #### #### #### ‐41,000 175,000 134,0001985 ####### ####### #### #### #### 18,000 143,000 160,0001990 ####### ####### #### #### #### ‐37,000 168,000 131,0001995 ####### 593,000 ### ### ### ‐299,000 192,000 ‐107,0002000 ####### ####### #### #### #### ‐96,000 162,000 66,0002005 ####### 881,000 #### #### #### ‐112,000 125,000 13,0002010 ####### 728,000 #### #### #### ‐120,000 100,000 ‐19,000
Inter‐national
Period ending Apr. 1
Components of Population Change, Southern California, 1970‐2010
Population Components of Change, average annualTotal ChangeBirths DeathsNaturaMigration
IncreasNet Domestic
(April 1)1970 #####
1975 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐79,531 ‐14,064 ‐356 ‐93,951 ##### #####
1980 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐55,215 14,057 432 ‐40,727 ##### #####
1985 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐43,618 47,964 13,617 17,962 ##### #####
1990 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐42,950 8,174 ‐2,106 ‐36,882 ##### #####
1995 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐123,165 ‐82,975 ‐92,644 ‐298,784 ##### #####
2000 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐64,995 ‐6,439 ‐24,498 ‐95,932 ##### #####
2005 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐57,683 ‐12,521 ‐41,394 ‐111,598 ##### #####
2010 ##### ##### ##### ##### ##### ‐86,862 ‐14,223 ‐18,605 ‐119,690 ##### #####
Im‐migra
Total MigraBorn in
CaliforniaOther U.S. Born Foreign Born
Total Domestic
Components of Population Change, Southern California, 1970‐2010Period Pop Change Change (average annual)
Births Deaths Natural Net MigrationIncrease Domestic Inter‐ Total
1970 ##1975 ## 518,000 163,000 85,000 78,000 ‐94,000 119,000 25,0001980 ## 1,149,000 181,000 85,000 95,000 ‐41,000 175,000 134,0001985 ## 1,442,000 220,000 92,000 128,000 18,000 143,000 160,0001990 ## 1,538,000 276,000 100,000 176,000 ‐37,000 168,000 131,0001995 ## 593,000 327,000 102,000 225,000 ‐299,000 192,000 ‐107,0002000 ## 1,248,000 288,000 105,000 184,000 ‐96,000 162,000 66,000
2005 ## 881,000 270,000 107,000 163,000 ‐112,000 125,000 13,0002010 ## 728,000 273,000 108,000 165,000 ‐120,000 100,000 ‐19,000
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
• Developed in collaboration with Dowell Myers and the Population Dynamics Research Group at the University of Southern California
• To project policy‐relevant impacts of nativity and immigrant duration (Year of Entry)
• First generation in 2001, second in 2005• Third generation (2012) also classifies the native population by birth state
California Demographic Futures (CDF) projections of State population
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
• With Pitkin‐Myers Regional “Generational” model
• 6‐County Southern California (SCAG) Region in 2012
• Los Angeles County, 2012• Santa Clara County, 2013
Pitkin‐Myers “Generational” Model developed to project population for sub‐regions within CA
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
• By age• Sex• Race and Hispanic origin• Foreign‐born, First Generation by
– Year of entry to the U.S. (before 1980,1980,…..)• Native‐born, Second Generation by
– Birth state (CA or other)• Native‐born, Third Generation by
– Birth state (CA or other)
CDF and P‐M models categorize population
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
CDF and P‐M Models are annual, cohort‐component
• Annual, from 2010 to 2030 or 2040• Two regions in CDF: California, other U.S.Three in P‐M: Region, Rest of CA, other U.S.
• Demographic rates are calibrated between 2000 and 2010 Censuses
• Post‐2000 birthplace and YOA are carried forward to 2010 and future, e.g., as race
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Nativity and Fertility in California Hispanic women
3.3 3.3
3.0
2.2
1.9 1.8
2.8
2.42.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2000‐2009 2010
Total Fertility
Rate (TFR
)
Foreign born
Native born
All women
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Nativity mix affects projected Fertility of Hispanics in California
2000
2010 2020
2030 2040
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Perio
d Total Fertility
Rate
Foreign‐born share / Women age 15‐44
Observed < > Projected
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Domestic Migration rates from California 1995‐2000, Hispanics
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
5 15 25 35 45 55 65
5‐year m
overs from
CA / Po
pulatio
n in CA
Age in 2000
Born in CA
Born in other US
Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Domestic Migration rates from California 1995‐2000, Non‐Hispanic Whites
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
5 15 25 35 45 55 65
5‐year m
overs from
CA / Po
pulatio
n in CA
Age in 2000
Born in CA
Born in other US
Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Non‐Hispanic Whites
‐100000
‐80000
‐60000
‐40000
‐20000
0
20000
40000
60000
2010 2020 2030
Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Non‐Hispanic Whites
‐100000
‐80000
‐60000
‐40000
‐20000
0
20000
40000
60000
2010 2020 2030
Total Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Hispanic
‐80000
‐60000
‐40000
‐20000
0
20000
40000
60000
2010 2020 2030
Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Hispanic
‐80000
‐60000
‐40000
‐20000
0
20000
40000
60000
2010 2020 2030
Total Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Asian, Pacific Islander
‐15000
‐10000
‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2010 2020 2030
Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Asian, Pacific Islander
‐20000
‐10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
2010 2020 2030
Total Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Non‐Hispanic Black
‐15000
‐10000
‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
2010 2020 2030
Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Non‐Hispanic Black
‐15000
‐10000
‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
2010 2020 2030
Total Other native California native Foreign born
John Pitkin for USC, June 9, 2014
Net Domestic Migration to California 2010‐2040 Projected, Non‐Hispanic Whites
‐100000
‐80000
‐60000
‐40000
‐20000
0
20000
40000
60000
2010 2020 2030
Total Other native California native Foreign born
Thank You
John Pitkin <[email protected]>
Analysis and Forecasting. Inc. 18 Brattle St. #356 Cambridge, MA 02138
California Demographic Futuresreports and information on projections of California and Los Angeles Countysearch for “USC popdynamics projection”
John Pitkin for FSCPP, April 30, 2014