The Speeches of JohnEnoch Powell

POLL 4/1/16Speeches, January 1983-December

1984, 4 files

POLL 4/1/16 File 4, January-May 1983

Image t The Literary Executors of the late Rt. Hon. J. Enoch Powell & content ti the copyright owner. 2011.

8/1/1983 Northern Ireland The Assembly - Threats To The Union AGM, East Down Divisional Unionist Assoc., Downpatrick Jan-May 1983 Page 76

21/1/1983 The Economy/Industry Export Surplus South East Motor Agents Assoc., Balham Jan-May 1983 Page 72

28/1/1983 Religion and Faith New Testament Oxford University Literary Society Jan-May 1983 Page 64

4/2/1983 Defence and Foreign Policy United Nations And The Falklands North Hants Cons. Assoc., Aldershot Jan-May 1983 Page 59

18/2/1983 The Economy/Industry International Dept Marlow Cons. Supper Club Jan-May 1983 Page 54

26/2/1983 Defence and Foreign Policy The Lebanon Southend Cons. Assoc. Dinner Jan-May 1983 Page 48

4/3/1983 Northern Ireland Ulster - The Union Co. Down Jan-May 1983 Page 45

11/3/1983 The Economy/Industry North Sea Oil - Economic Impact Institute of Bankers, Newport Jan-May 1983 Page 41

18/3/1983 The Economy/Industry . Energy and Environment U.K. Economy Assoc. of management Studies, Teeside Jan-May 1983 Page 33

22/3/1983 Education and Literature Duke Of Norfolk Foyle's Literary Luncheon, Norfolk Jan-May 1983 Page 27

22/3/1983 Education and Literature (Alt.) Duke Of Norfolk Foyle's Literary Luncheon, Norfolk Jan-May 1983 Page 30

25/3/1983 The Economy/Industry International Monetary System Ashridge College Assoc. Dinner Jan-May 1983 Page 22

13/5/1983 Northern Ireland Ulster - Northern Ireland Office North Antrim Ulster Unionist Assoc. Jan-May 1983 Page 17

28/5/1983 Northern Ireland Ulster - Effects Of E.E.C. Membership Public Meeting, Saintfield Jan-May 1983 Page 10

31/5/1983 Defence and Foreign Policy Nuclear Weapons Election Meeting, Downpatrick Jan-May 1983 Page 3

Foa 1-JJ3LICTICU DITLco77.77vri BETJOHE TIldE OF DETVERY

Speech by the Rt Hon I. Enoch P)well to an election meet-ing at Downatrick, Co Down, on Tuesday, 31 Pay 1983

The debate about nuclear weapons, nuclear deterrence and the

British nuclear deterrent is not a debate about peace. The Eisuse

of that word Theace" in this context is not confined to such groun‘s

as peace campaigners. The misconception that undrIies it is sl-h.redthe

and encouraged by official apologists for nuclear weapons,/indepen-

dent deterrent and the rest, when t'hey assert that forty years of

peace in Europe is owed to the availability of nuclear arms.

Par can not be banished from h=n. life on this planet by

eithor the invention 3r the disinvention of particular weapons,

whether they are bowsand arrows and catapults or bombs with high

explosive or thermonuclear warheads. 7ar is implicit in the human

condltien: like otLe-r evils incident to "our -proud and an,c;ry

dust", it ° is frcE eternity and shall not fail".

The debate is about something much more rational and nore

practical. It has to do with human reason, with what 1', logical

or absurd, d.;fensible or indefensible, ana with the n 2ptation of

maPPs to an,3, The true case -,gangt the nucluar weapon is tho

ni,ghtmarish unreality and criminal levity•of the grounds upon which.::

its acauisition and multiblication aro advocated ana defended

found it unforgivable that the old r.,;---triiiunt wPs cmcsolved wlthout

the House of Commons having deb5-vted T3ritain's mud ar strated7y.

.:hatever the deficioneis of th Po c e Coomons, at least

it is a olace where reason can. be moasured agalns-t unro.ason and

sense ar7ainst nonsence me-re e-F'fectjvelv than ir tho 5:--t-gos-rhare

electjon argumert between. ba7- 7as adi' olitici s nacd -in the

acquisition of votes Tr opportlinitj ,(7;)--: to 1"P.; T'7r

voice, Iam reassured to rerall that as long ago 6 ',larch 1967,Conservativea,

whe2..-i,euprosition sbokesmall T put c,H r(:cr)rd — it is thr:2

—2—

in the colum=_sof Hansard — a refutation of the theory of the nuclear

deterrent which no one then or since has seriously attempted to

meet: at least, my colleagues and my fellow spokesmon showed no

disposition to do so or to repudiate it.

In one of her most recent utterances on this subject ln the

bear garden of Prime Tidnister's Question 7ime,Iirs Thatcher asserted

that Britain's nuclear arm is our defence- "of last rosortn. It was

no slip of the tongue for she rep atcd the description more than

once. So it is fair to enquire what might be the circumstances of

that ° last resort° , what is the meaning behind the expression,and

how the Prime Kinister understands it.

Suppose that the Soviet Union, which seems always to be assumed

to be the enemy in question, ° roved so victorious in a war of

aggression in Europe • as to stand upon the verge of invadin

these islands — the pesition, in other words, in which. Germany

found itself in the summer of 1940. Surely nobody can dispute that

that would be for Britain a situation of extreme peril and that a

case for our "defence of last resort° vioula arise if the Russian

Kigh Command unleashed the equivalent of Hitler's Ctro.tion

Suppose further — becauce thig is necossary to the alleged case for

our nuclear weapon as the defence of last resort — that, as in ler'Ae0,---

the United '"tates wes standirg aloof from the cortest but that, in'respectively

contrast with 1940, Britein ecYld the '.Iarsaw 1act/posseesed theuust

nuclear weaponry which they do today. Such / surely be.

sort ofthe/scene in which the T'rim s assertjne that Britain

would be seved by possession of her present nuclear armament.

I can only say, "One must bp m;.d te think it". Tobody dispute.s,

T believe , that cur necl,,,ar weponry is neolisibl ie comparison

w.ith thbt of Russia; if we could deqtroy sixteen Russian cities,

,,he could destroy practically ever: vesti e of life on these islands

several times over, eer us to use the weaeon would therefore be

ecuivaleet to more thae suicide; it would Le goeocide — the

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extinction of our race - in the moot literal brecise mean-irg

of that much abused expression anybody in their senses -

I will not say "advocate" (though thet must be implicit in the

Prime Ilinister's argument) - I merely say "contemplte that this

ought to be our choice or would be our choice? An off-,cor may,

in the hour of hic country's defeat and disgrace, com7,itin

honourably and rationally with his service revolver; but/any collect-

ive context the choice of non-existence,of the obliteration of all

future hope, is insanity. 'Jhatever it is, who dare call it "defence° ?

It may be objected that the aggressor would not have pushed

his aggression so far if he thought that it might, hoever

improbably, cost him the existence of sixteen of his cities. Well,

let us susbose that. Let us suppose that hi,. contents himself withav1;ay

advancing no nearer to the Channel than a hundred miles/and makes

no move thereafter to threaten imminent invasion of these islands.

'Jould that be all right? 1cpuld that be not a case of last resort?

Apparently so; for we are ass:ired that the contin=natal nations

(who, on that assumption, would havr= been overrun and occupied,)

rebose sucL confidence in the nuclear deterrent - in this case, in

the nuclear deterrent possessed by the United States - that they

are satisfied with a level of non-nuclear armiament and forces

manifestly inadequate to impose more than brief delay upon an

assault from the East.

The theory of nuclear deterrerice states that, should Warsaw

Pact forces score substantial military successes or make subs.tantial

advances this side the Iron Curtain, tho United States would initiat

the suicidal duel of strategic nuclear enchangos with the Soviet

Union. Onc can only .greet this idca with an ovoh more embhatic

"Ono must be mad to think it", That . nation staring ultimate

Trilitary defeat in the face would choose self-extrmiination is

unbelievable enough; but that the Unitd States, separated from

2uropc by the :,tlantic Ocean, would regard the loss of thc first

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pc:un in a lon7=7 game as necessitating hara kari is not describable

by the ordinary resources of language. If the calculation is taken

to be a uilitary one, it is nonsensical. If the calculation is

bemoral, the act would/not ,altruis 7-uttsr:,.adness. The 11-mericans have

shown themselves ready, in South last Asia, in Central America and

in other regions of the globe, to em-oloy military force and sub-

version in pursuit of strategic ends which orly indir;-ctly and

motely touch their own safety; but nothing in their behaviour SUS-

gests that theymuld court their own destruction not to protect, but

crlYto avenge, a distaYit satellite.•Mon such a transparent absurdity as the thoory of ruclear

deterrence is professed and earnestly proclaimcd by :7overnments

around the world, and our own amon:7st them, the phenomenon calls

for cx-olanation daresa,: that part of the rcason lies in the

obstiliacv with which ,covernments and lholitcians 770 ()-T re-fatin:=7

absurditiec when onc,e they have committed thomsolves t() them. I

dares-ay too that, in A17,erica and poseibly elsewhere, enormous

econ=ic ant financial interests are vosted in the oo-otnuatich

and elmbaration of nuclear armaments a nonsnse, arov i ded it is

bic enoun5 acquires r momPntu7 of its own which carries it forward.

believe, however, that the crucial .xolanatian lios in anothor

direction: the nuclear hypothesis -crovides froirfinhnts with an

excusc for not doing what they havo no intention ofe' dc-inc a yhew

b, for reasons which they find it inconvenlent to specify.

'Jhen the ILK wanted to end national service in 1957, it dis-

covered the nuclear deterrnt I ouh-,- te knew, for 7 was .at tin

1roasury when it was discovered. Ihftor all the comithents which

we had 7.-Iade on thh continent sillce 1945 it yould nbarroo-

sing to.-7-11,7e the real reason, nanoly, that a conscrit amy ln

peacetime makes no sense for an island nation which de7ends for its

safety on a balance of nilitary power. "But where are your divisiens?L

0112 continental allies would have enquired; and what would we have

had to say? Tnstead we declared that there was no need for large

conventional armanents because Anerica and its nuclear deterreut

would frighten our enemies off.

The nuclear theory was equally conveniert for our continental

neighbours, none of whoa seriously intends anyhow to uaintain con-socle

ventionol forces on a sufficient/to defeat a hypothetical Soviet

invasion. Thdr true reason is that they do not anticipte such an

invasion but re,,,ard it as remotely inprobable. Can anyone seriously

imagine that the 1est Germans, with their obssessive hatred and feor

of Russia and their bast experiences, would be content, if they

thought Russia was likely to attack them, to deoelid on an army of

twelve divisions on the assunption tbat ths Tnited Stdtes would

fire off its nuclears in time? Yet how awkward it would be for

tharl to make a clear breast of their true state of mind.

Thus the nuclear nonsense is an exanalo of the most d=ble

brand of nenoenso - the kind that io hihly convenieut and profit-

able for those who talk it. ITevertheless, it is so norsnsical• that it constantly thloeotens to colla-ose, to tno al=:: of -its

'cractiticners. H=co the efforts which have 7-.eatedly ts be rTad--

to shore it up, One of the latest of th,se is T,rosidont 171.eaan's

to.

•

.* -6-pro-

Ta/ject, which is essentially a device for pretending that resort

to th- nuclear weapon does not equal suicide. "Don't worry", says

Reagan; "w-'ll destroy the Soviet, without the Soviet being able

to destroy us. How's that for a nuclear deterrent?° Anyone who

can believe that after the last thirty years of Russo-Anerican

rivalry, is beyond help.

lore directly aimed at us in Britain is a ploy which has lasted

somewhat longer - the classification of nuclear weapons as tactical

or strategic, intercontinental or intermediate. This ardounts toan

asserting that if the enemy makes / unacceptable penetration in

Europe - whether the unacceptable penetration is defined as deep or

shallow - we will just destroy two or three of his armies and in-

cidentally any cities or other centres of population where they

hap,,Den to be deployed. "He won't mind that, of course", we say,

"or if he is so unreasonable as to resent such gentlemanly behaviour,

he will do no -more than destroy a British army or a British baseof

or two, just to show that it's all part/a gaue° 0 I should like to

know whether the Prime Ilinister, who is dedicated to the distinction

between one class of nuclar weapons and another, would explain

the use of tactical nuclears in the situation of last resort to

which I invitd your attention earlier. With a victorious enemy in

• - the r-lative sitation of the ("Tern= aruy in 1940 let us assi:mGintermediate

that we use the woapon of last resort by/nuclear ca struction cf tho

continental Channol ports, tho centres of coo=nication and concen-

tration ard thetilitary and civil popultions What would bo the

conseauoncos of that course, and whother th_ decision to take lt

would b. tantaount to suicide, T au willing to levo to cor7or

sense.

One thing I will not believe. I will not beli 1e that it is

wise cr safe or right for the doctrine of tho nuclo= doterromL,

with all its iumonso iuplications for tho defence a2J for th-,

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international relations of Britain, to bo takeri on trust without

serious debate or ex=ination on the pretoxt that thoso who dare

to discuss or exaEine it rust bo evill: or lu'ooatriatically clis_posed.

There are things too iE ,ortant to be left to the experts. There are

things too imbortalit to bo left to the bol-itcians. The nuclear

(--lest-lor is ono of the:1. 71b.„;urople at lr:-To oth,ht to:be flabl.;:d

take it in hand, and this olction ought to bo thoir opp,B7tunity.

NOT FOR ULLICATION OR REFER NCE TOCONTENT' EEFORE OF DEL1Vix

upeech by the Rt Hon. J. Enoch Powell to a Pu lic Neetinaat Saintfield, Co. Down, at 8 p.m., Saturday, 26tn :I.ay 1983.

A month ago the people of Ulster were shocked when they hearo the

news that tid European Assemoly haat decided, even against t e objections

and warnings of tne Eritish aovernment, to institute an investigation

into the political affairs of Northern Irelan-. It was sharp reminder

of the consequences of Eritain 'being cart of the PEC. People's

intelligence told them truly tnat continental Europe is no friend of

Ulster as part of the United Kingdom. e contrary, the EEC, naving

conferred upon the Republic tne title of "Ireland", is gispo,=ed to treat

as an absurd and evanescent anomaly the fact that this province and

intends cy the majority voice of its inhabitants to remain, a part of

triP United Kingdom, to wnich we belong 5..kft-ce oefore most of the states

of the Common harket had even come into existence.

T e Ulster Unionist Party, faithful y represent' a in this as in

ail else the instincts and interests of the Ulster deople, has aiwaId

known, and always assertea, that membership of the EEC was disastrous

for Ulster even more than for the rest of the United gdom.

predicted triat, as time went on, and es-pecially after being provided

with an elected oseudo-,dariia ent, the European E;conomic Community would

not confine itseif to matters of trade cut would extcoa its cretens ons

and i .= interference into e scneres poll ics, international affairs,

and cefence. The truth is trat inside the EEC there is no room for a

sovereign sei: -governing par liarertary naEion ±ice ours: and that is

y, in order for Eritain to oolonq to the EEC, Pariiame t had to

acknowle, _e in tne most solemn and comprehensive mannar the suEerior

rig or the Coms,unitv to leaisata, to tax, and to exrcias ar ° -

diction n the United Kingdom.

It was an aonegation hicn neiE er the self-reap -E nor tr. el

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being of the nation can indefinitely survive. Tn *nr, Common Yark,-t

Britain nas no tra-,e molicy of its own: toe laws and agreements

governing its trade, not only with the other member states tut with

the outside world at large, are those which the Community negotiates

and makes. 4e are bound hand and foot by them. tiler has Britain

an agricultural or food policy of its own any longer. 4e are Powerless

to take account, in the way we would wisn, of the special characteristics

of British agriculture generally or of the agriculture of our regions.

We are obliged to sell subsidised surpluses to Soviet Russia when we

would prefer to let our own people take advantage of world markets

while protecting the interest and survival of our farmers by the means

which we ourselves thought test.

The consequences of this loss of national freedom 40446 felt oarticu-

larly severely in this province. It is tne Common !v:arket and not our own

government and parliament whic. -eciges whether and how hill-farming

shall pe supported and which forbids tne dairy industry in this brovince

to enjoy a separate regime from that on the mainland. Only last week,

in the dying -iays of the old parliament, we were informed that we snail

no :longer Pe allowed to maintain in the matter of milk the more stringent

precautions which nave nitherto helped to keep the standard of animal

health in this province uniquely high. ainolarly, the manner in which

the textile industry ef Ulster and its transformation to meet co-hde.....

conditions are nandied is outside the control_ of tne United .1<ingdom.

There may te room for derua,.e about wnat the richt measures are; but

it is a oieoate wnich toe United ?Oinogom will not be aliowea to conduct

or to decide.

There is another and more powerful, though subtler, way in which

Ulster is prejudiced by membership of the LEC. The resu t of frita in

joining w g forcibly to alter the whole aspect arid outlook of our

relations with the rest of the world. The strongly marKed continental

character of the CoTimunity, whicn of course is reflected by the Common

Agricultural Policy, which 15 essentially a policy for Eurooean self-

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ensures _sufficie- cyhat Eri.ain becomeSmerely the offshore island of a main-

land arouoing. The westward-looking, outward-looking, oceanic stance,

which was historically Eritain'slwas destroyed not just ny tnis continen-

tal alignment but by the brusque rupture of our natural economic lin s

with the Gld Commonwealth and with the New horid.

The result of this is Ulster has exchanged its old c sition

on the Atlantic flank of Eritain for that of a peripheral province

of a Eritain which has itself become peripheral in relation to the

contlental heartiandjof the EEC. This is one of those changes which

are none the less profound for 'being imoossible to quantify. Yet there

are thousands in this province who could testify from their daily

experience to the truth of what i am aescrioing, not least those who

have occasion to transbort and export Ulster's products to the Continent.

My fellow candidate in East Antrim, Alderman Eeags, recently made a

very proper protest against the treatment received in Fr.: ce ny

Ulstermen taking a consignment of meat ty refrigerated lorry, wno were

both physically and bureaucratically harassed with official connivance.

The uncomprehending might object "3ut would not that sort of

thing occur all the more if Eritain were not a member of the EC?".

The answer is No, and tne reason goes near to the seart of the

matter. Apart from the EEC, any country ,,inich behaved in this -ay

would soon be made to realise the unfavourabl,- re rcussions upon tneir

own trade. An independent nation has always its leverage and caroaininc

counters, as little Iceland crcvd ell too cle arly vr-en she excloitea'

to the full the power of those new fishery limits wh ch ncr action

he ped to estaciisn. Contrast the situa,_ion of britain, wich, havinc

surrenderes to the Community Its mower cf Inoemeflcient action, lies

tethered hand ana feet, like Guiliver amohc the Lillimutians , at the

mercy of any country tnat cares to taba anvantaqe -t-- her.

The reference just fisheries was act, es ecially to this

maritime province. r:aving t._iro over to the EEC o 1r aovereivr aters

we were powerless to prayer— the ruination of cur fishri stocks cv tn

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continental nations or to resist the ter-s dictated to as in the

Common Fisheries Policy on pain of having our comcetitors fisn riant

up to our beacnes. Tnst is tne answer to those wrio moan tnat WE would

not be able to make fair terms for ourselves with the other meper

states once we recealed tne European Communities Act ane announced

cur intention to witnaraw from tne xeme ana Erussels Treaties. Tne

moaners and faintnearts nave got it exactly wrong. Tne coo' wcu

on the other foot. A Britain wnicn resumed its national inciepenoence

would hold tne aces of the cacK wnen it came to caraaihino witn those

who want access to our energy, our markets ano our seas; nc,r wcula 4e

need, as ncw, to ao cap in nano to a European summit, like Emperor henry

performing penance to tne Pope at Canossa, to see now meth of our cwh

Toney the ctners are prepared to a ve us tack - we wouiu not oe divind

it to tnem in tne first 'place.

No longer wcula r aggerep ana the Eurecean sci-aistant Parlia-lent

to come tack to tnem - be atie to c_ 17 _ne right, just because tney

aole out largesse to Ulster at our own expense, to Coke tneir ncses

into Ulster's and tritain's affairs. In oar situation in this erovince,

exposed as is no ctner part of the Kingaom to international pressare

ana external aggression, we nave a unique vested interest ih the

national sovereignty of tne Unitea Kingeom. After ali, it is cer

ultimate reliance ana guarantee, tne carrier which stenos between ue

ana a pigoted ano hostile outsi:le world. Smell wonder if Lister

Unionists were Prominent amend those who foagnt to prevent tnet

sovereignty being surrenaerea an'a ere 'prominent amona tnose ,ho will

fiant to win it tack.

A month ago the people of Ulster were shocked when they heard the newsthat the European Assembly had decided, even against the objections anwarnings of the British government, to institute an investigation intothe political affairs of Northern Ireland. It was a sharp reminder ofthe consequences of Britain being part of the EEC. People'sintelligence told them truly that continental Europe is no friend ofUlster as part of the United Kingdom. On the contrary, the EEC, havingconferred unon the Republic the title of "Ireland", is disposed to trustas an absurd 3n:.1 evanescent anomaly the fact that this province is, ;:mdintends by the majority voice of its inhabitants to remain, a part ofthe United Iungclom, to which we belonged before most of the states ofthe Common liarket had even cone into existence.The Ulster Unionist Party, faithfully representing in this as in allelse the instincts and interests of the Ulster people, has always known,and always asserted, that membership of the EEC was disastrous for Ulsto::-even more than for the rest of the United Kingdom. It predicted that,as time went on, and especially after being provided with an electedpseudo-parlinent, the European Economic Community would not confineitself to matters of trade but would extend its pretensions and itsinterference into the sphere of policies, international affairs, anddefence. The truth is that inside the EEC thnre is no room for a sov a.se -governing narIiamentary nation like ours; and that is why, in ol-deror Britain to belong to the EEC, Parliament had to acknowledge in tfL.::ost solemn anc: comprehensive manner the superior right of the Communityto legislate, to tax, and to exercise jurisdiction in the UnitedKingdom.

It was an abnegation which neither the self-respect nor the well-beingof the nation cnn indefinitely survive. In the Common Market Britainhas no trnde policy of its own: the laws and agreements governing itstrade, not only with the other member states but with the outside worldat large, are those which the Community negotiates and makes. Ue arebound hand n:nd foot by them. Neither has Britain an agriculturnl orfood policy of its own any longer. We are powerless to take account,in the way we would wish, of the special characteristics of Britishagriculture generally or of the agriculture of our regions. We areobliged to sell subsidised surpluses to Soviet Russia when we wouldprefer to lot our own people take advantage of world markets whileprotecting the interest and survival of our farmers by the means whichwe ourselves thought best.

The consequences of this loss of national freedom are felt particu-larly severely in this province. It is the Common Market and not ourown government end parliament which decides whether and how hill-farming shall be supported and which forbids the dairy industry inthis province to enjoy a separate regime from that on the mainland.Only last week, in the dying days of the old parliament, we wereinformed that we shnll no longer be allowed to maintain in thematter of milk the more stringentprecautions which have hithertohelped to keep the standard of animal health in this province uniquelyhigh. Similarly, the manner in which the textile industry of Ulsterand its transformntion to meet changed conditions are handled isoutside the control of the United Kingdom. There may be room fordebate about what the right measures are: but it is a debate whichthe United Kingdom will not be allowed to conduct or to decide.

There is another nnd more powerful, though subtler, way in which Ulstee.is re'udiced by membershi of the EEC. The result of Britain joining

, was forcibly to alter the whole aspect and outlook of our relationsWith the rest of the world. The strongly marked continental chnrncterwof the Community, which of course is reflected by the Common

Agricultural Policy, which is essentially a policy for European self-sufficiency ensures that Britain becomes merely the offshore island ofa mainland grouping. The westward-looking, outward-looking, oceanicstance, which was historically Britain's, wns destroyed not just bythis continental alignment but by the brusque rupture of our naturnleconomic links with the Old Commonwealth and with the New 'dorld.

The result of this is that Ulster has exchanged its old position onthe Atlantic flnnk of Britain for thnt of a peripheral province ofBritain which hes., itself become peripheral in relation to thecontinental heartlands of the EEC. This is one of those changes whichare none the leas profound for being impossible to quantify. Yetthere are thousands in this province who could testify from their d:,ailvexperience to the truth of what I am describing, not least those whohave occasion to transport and export Ulster's products to theContinent. Lly fellow candidate in East Antrim, Alderman Beggs, recenmade a very proper protest agaiwtthe treatment received in France byUlstermen taking a consignment of meat by refrigerated lorry, who woneboth physically nnd bureaucratically harassed with official connivnnce,

The uncomprehending might object "But would not that sort of thinglireccur all the more if Britain were not a member of the EEC?". Theglignswbr is No, a-Ac: the reason goes near to the heart of the matter.Apart from the E:C, any country which behaved in this way would soonbe made to renlise the unfavourabl0 repercussions upon their own trae.An independent nation has always its leverage and bnrgaining counters,as little Icelnnf: proved all too clearly when.she exploited to the fullthe power of those new fishery limits which her action helpPd toestablish. Contrnst the situation of Britain, which, having surrendenedto the Community its power of independent action, lies tethered hnndand foot, like Gulliver amond the Lilliputians, at the mercy of nnycountry thnt cares to take advantage of her.

The reference just now to fisheries was npt, especially to thismaritime province. Hnving turned over to the EEC our sovereign wnterewe were powerless to prevent the ruination of our fishing stocks by thecontinental nntions or to resist the terms dictnted to us in the ComnenFisheries Policy on pain of hnving our competitors fish right up to ouebeaches. That is the answer to those who moan that we would not be ebleto mnke fair tereis for ourselves with the other member states once ,2repealed the Zuropenn Communities Act nnd announced our intention inwithdrnw fron the Rome nnd Brussels Trenties. The moaners and

•fainthearts have got it exactly wrong. The boot would be on the other

foot. A Brit,T.iIl ,:rhich resumed its national independence would hold the

aces of the pac:: -;Then it came to bargaining with those who want access

to our energy, Our markets and our seas; nor would we need, as now, togo cap in hand to a European summit, like Emperor Henry performing

penance to the Po-oe at Canossn, to see how much of our own money the

others are prepareC: to give us back - we would not be giving it to them

in the first place.

No longer woulc: Lir Haggerup and the European soi-distant Parliament -

to come back to them - be able to claim the right, just because they

dole out largesse to Ulster at our own expense, to poke their noses

into Ulster's anc: Britain's affairs. In our situation in this provino

exposed as is no other part of the kingdom to international pressureand external aggression, we have a unique vested interest in thenational sovereignty of the United Kingdom. After nll, it is our own

_ultimate reliance :ald_guarantee, the barrier which stands between us

and a bigoted an:: hostile outside world. Small wonder if Ulster

Unionists were prominent among those who fought to prevent thatsovereignty bei=g surrendered and are prominent among those who willIIIfight to win it b::ck.

All i i01 FOR PUBLICATION OR REFERENCBTO WelNT eutUHF 'f-1B OH DLLlv'BRi

Speech by the Rt Hon D. Enoch Powttil, ae, to the AnnualDinner of the North Antrim Ulster Unionist Associationat Tuliymore House Hotel, Brounsnane, Co. Antrim, at

8 pm '-oiciay 13th May 1983

Tne four years wnien eave ended wit the dissolution of

Parliament today have eeeh a bad four years for 'ulster. Ihe toil

of life exactea by reeeeest violence die r.et continue aftcr 1979

the hopeful donoar' H on whiee it seen-iee to be spt 1977 and

197t, Inere was -.16 ..peekl.hg the chili ninh nese—hex, en us

immediately the, rae eret Teeek over, thoun oniv edeseduent

events were to eneele eb e eentetntane ree sinister the change

really was. Ail we saw at 4a.s a re,,ei Secretary o i- State wno

had to be aloet physically rectainee fee,: rusning over to New

fee.rk to eeeneb wtth the or and his Iree'r repueiican cronies,

ehe and :Jdet re a en ';ee eide o the Atiantic peddling a united

leeiand,

Those of us eee saee aet tne time, and I was one of them, that

tne Ulster cuestiee ,:ead ueen internationalleed were nearer the: mark

than we knew, thouh still not quite on tne pull's eye. There had

always been an int-ernational dimension, in the sense that a neutral,

and therefore potentiaiiy tangerous, -Ireland was al*,/ays historically

a source of anxiety to eritain and thud to 31-itain's allies and thaet-

Hritain was consequently aiays vulnerable to beihg tempted or black-

mailed into trying to purchase irisn goodvTiIi t sellinc, Ulster,

The documents now avaiia3le aftply ileustrate that theme in

1939 and 1940, when Chamberlain and onurchill seriously toyed with

the idea of an all-Ireland state as the eventual quid pro duo - if

not the cash payment eewn - _C(.,1- the estate•s collaboration

against iazi Germany. The sa.72e synhrohe recurred, though witn a

diti-erent potential enemy, at tne enb of the 1940's ohon NHTu w;,.F

formed under the aegis of the Unitee States, lreis brought America

and also Europe into the J,yeme as principals. Once aeeain ar; now knu

•tnat Churcnill and the eunservative uovernment were anytning nut

disinclined to CO a acal at Ulster's epehse. fro:;.1 onc lato 1960•s

on,;ards Soviet equality and the Soviet threat of superiority gave

a new interest and a ncw impetus to tne oid ieea and the State

Department and tne Foreign Orfice, represented locally in Ulster

after 1972 by the r4ortnenn lreiano Offiee, set to woro with renewea

incentive and dotormlnaeoh. That is t]ne nackground against which

all that has hapenoI .co since lij69 nas nu P, understood.

Easically, tn(:, .Jas a simple ono. it was the :formula

wnicn de Valera ni'd oLotud ali his Ilfe: the two keys to a

united Ireland were. nt words, Jlster autonomy and the English

interest. Tne only condi j:13 that Uistor autonomy must bo so

designed as to DO anis eveheIly to be tricked, Pribed or brow-

beaten into joining in a deal ,;ith tne :c-public while Eritain stoorj

riy- playing 1,or tnis purpose, of course, the

.port of a,:ollomy itormont constitution represented was

oorse than clsief::: • would bo an obstacle, not a help. So it

nad co be got rioo'io. but r rn tno moment that It:as achieved, the

orthern Ireland :Lee and the Foreign Office, with American en-

couragement ann connivance, worec unceasingly to ropiace it oy a

form of autonomy tnat would be amHonaDie,

The storyo the last four years is the story of a series of

atter.,pts to do just tnat. -t is a story stained w_Ltn olood, tne

blood of thosc 1,i10 nad to de murcereC in order to Keeio up the

pressure wnenover tiritain's entnusiasm was tnought to oe in clangor

of fiagging Toe Liovernmt,ent, I am sorry to say, were in it up to

tn- h,ck right from the start. nybo,:::: 000 supposes trot the

Prime ,Iirlister, fro:ii hen. first taiks with t - Jack Lyncn woo pd•liciy

.c ared that -devolution in iiltmris t.he fLIJ'st StL0 to a dnit-d

IreLand-, aid not Khoo wnat It was aii about, snows _Little r:,sp::et

for thAt lacy's natin,e izitefligene., In any ds , If

ture she hau not hanr.. 2nod to notice, t'ho c om,,anin.=; was brow7;I:t.

to nor attention over and over again. Read the succ•ssive

communicues of ner meetings with Charles haugney and Garrett

FitzGerald It is like -,iatching a stately and planndd progression,

from conceding thd .Pc:,public a role in the intcrnal affairs of Ulster,

through acknowledging "the totality of these iSlants to establishing

an Anglo-irisn Council Uistr ,.;ould be represented s,,:parately

through an electd

It was in pursunee uf tnec procoss last year Parliament

was forced undr gut to perpetrat, the Prior assembly, with

its 'roiling devolution tied to tne tail of built-in power-snaring.

The Prime Minist r it bo ±nown that she did not like tne

animal; see might con-cv, ndr caebenendrs that eh would thank

tnem to -ring its dirty rick.'; she might allou her opposition to

it in eabinet to be sedulousiy ieaked. Ihe fact rnmains she let

it nappen, Sh(3 mi?2rt not altog,thr have eporov e ci what tno Foreign

Office and the irc,land Gtfee iero up to but tny b:Jat

ti,?r, and thoy nace inisned :et.

.‘ct this pa'ta, lar moment James Prior and nis senior minister

o..ro not thinking Uout Ulster at ail. Tho e ttLn,'ing auout what

thc: General Electlon will mean for t om if the Govo:rnment wins:

new joOs in mieront departmo Ls, promotion porna s to Minister

of State or, vilo knows hinersteli.'sec.;;,tary oI State

wondering if Mi- Thatcher el drop nik, 2t last dnd wntur tneh to

spend Lis retirement on his farm oc In t:u2 Lords. Not so the

Northern Ireland Office, T,Tho car for -ione of tneso things, hey

are t inking 7bout tno n rt m.e.e in th,=1' g.:am,o, and hoping

tnat good luck ,lel err the- ne mastors enguiiir) and as va n

tne two tne navd had .sinco 179.

It is impor,ssibid to uit.hcc1c n b.-t-ia grudging ad,iration

for th, patidnt and unwar ing p' --ist cc of the Northern irdiand

Office. J4hen ond schcre of tnoirs (201.1o553, tme just put 1-1-0

anoth - one, When ene b.niti -to of th 'i-s for Mr Pliability

•

-4-

, turns out to have clay foet, they proilrptly start groominganother one, or somotimos tuo or throo of tnem at tno same time.Let us admit that thcy nave had t.imir successes. They SWOPtj in

1979 that they would nava an elected assembl-y, puwors or no powors,- with no powersand exactl th-ree years iater they nave got one. They nave the

steady support, intentional or unintontional, tacit or conniving,of ono of the political parties in tne Ass,Iply, and on a second

party there they can alw.ays rely for was not the Alliance ?arty expressly invented ard 'o-opt in artificial ani-ation for th'et verypurposo?

It is the Ulster Unionist ?arty under the: loadorsnip of Jim

411Molynoauc: that is their -ft is tnot part allo that loaderwhcciathey loyo to aate. 'Yet e;r. there thelr offorts have not poenwholly nglaaol foe orehern Trlau u lie haw: wado a Sostainoo

a orriinu con-3tic.utonaliy te infiltrate

the upper eehbcro 1.OLS Party, So as to ce in ci position, nocessary for some special purpose, to manipulate the ,Jecisions ofitt office uearors and its executive, 011eOt thoy came to griei oat

with tia, rank and file, witn the grrn_ss rcots, with the lien and 4c)o,nwho always, when oirthright of Tist,rr has neon threatened or cilod in question, are found uncorrunt, ci rsignc:1 and invin=

cible,

it an time for those en and ,7orri,:n tnir voice noard

agrain now. At this election - no tn.,-,nks to to Aorth._:on irc:iandOffaco, whicn trioo again and again to sabotr.e it Uister till Po

reortsenteO in tne house of Comons ty ato full quota of momcerfor the first tiz:e h•=L3 it in its power to send

to 1/2ho stnci

togtrar for the Union, as ;7n DTIrri.Jr all

future atteli,pts to oarter or Octray bartrinL of,is oeople, Inosu c.c cute I Unionist, aR_r, of ths

too par'ty of spel-

that has lain so neavy and so long ubon this land,

hav,2, one thing to adt. Ulster's cause is neither local

nor carocniai. Ulster's onus:,is th hause of the UniteL KingCoLl.

That is what idakes the i_dsotic)n ner,e in this province an integral

and vital part of tne eibtoral decision of tna whole nation.

Supreme among the issua of this election are tne relations of

Uurota ant with Ablei•a, Is,T-,ritain to be a nation

in her o;in r L,nt or tn:: siabect provincb bf a ..3ont7.n,.:htl state'i;

Is dritain to be a ri:2.tio ncr (7) riht c ti-1(3obedient srf

and satcilite of tne (hi_t—!tStates? j-ist,h—s o. Ils are britain.s

The forces tr :enore10 tb destroy nr birthrint

ar.; thb forces worin.g tb j dci ooi L-ti'thrisht. t it i2e

undiirst:Do, tnen n aht sore, T:* fight not col; fel' Iiisto

cut for jibitain, wbcn we here, vO i no't 0:1 Jister,

•

i'-U3LICA1IONTOIOI LO

Addrs by the ho. J. Ehodn Fowe.L1 r:_q], MP, to theAshrlje College ei.ociation Dinner at tne Ashri':,;ekanagent College, i.erts, at 1.30 pm, Friday, 25th i•iarch

1983

The air '- full of forebodinig about tne imminent orealkaown of

the international monetary system, That to s calamity which will

be viewed with considerable equahinlity by connoiss•3urs of the politi-

cal vocabulary and the conjuring tricks that can be played with it,

There is no such thin; as "the international -1Ionetary system".

It :4-aite simply does not exist. Thero is suer, a thing as national

money, wnicn circulates and passes current within tne ,00rders or

• •• individual states; and if anyone wished to 117; froci-1 the innabitants

of other countries or to invest in tneir businesses, he must obtain

some of their money in cxci:laRgc for ns coo ocu ::,any units of

theirs he will get for now mlany of nis own, will dcbend on how much

demand. there is for the one and for tno otne.. , find out what

the other follow offers, end If satisfieU; you clinch. It is all

beautifully free and voluntary, like pays swapping stamps or conkers,

Ath no playground Dully in sight anywhere.

If what tOe citizens of a country nave to sell ocCorriCs scarcer

or morc de-siraPle, they w 11 get more units of othe: ff,oneuy in oxenange

for trio same number of tncAr own. .,,Itcf-nativc,iy, of the govornJ:ent

of ono country makes the urits 3f ic moi liarc plentiful, its

4111 oitizons will got fewer units of other money in excr-r17ig, for the

same number of their 000, Li3m,2tming of tnc samc cours,

is producci if 'r,h3S-:: changt:s nave not 7;,:t occuci but Fr :o:n. or

less oonfidently anticipated,

In aii this there is nctillnj, that C::_:scrvcs to bc calic a

eccpic carry cn aric I. quit ccritcntaly anci

nappily - cr rather trey -,Joulo, if tneir igovornnts doe not try te

cnoat, Inc irriat,o dehlr:: of ail govo=ents to choat is like lye

apple, the sourco of enlless thochle,

-2-

p .

The simpiestform is when governmpnts cheat their (--)n bitizehs.

This they co by manufactering extrn money and spending it themselves -

on palaces or cannon or duying votes fro.m old age pensioners. "Jut

though they can successfuily cheat their own citizens, the same trick

will not work on foreigners,who just demand more units of that coun-

try's money in exchange for the same number of their own. So, in

order to cht3at the foreigh,ers too, thc dishonest government forbids

s own citizens to exchange their money .with foreigners - or to ex-

change more than a permitted quantity for permitted purboses. This

keps it artificealiysearce and thus maintains the o-zcnange rate un-

chahed, so that the foreigner is cheated like the native.

Compulsion ant crimchave now arrived upon the scene. Inn inher-

ently innocent act of doinc, a kioluntary swap with the other fellow

b:icomes a Lilac* deed of unpriotic treacher-,:. i'olice arrive; courts

are 11 session; offeners ae jailed; btaci< ma;:ets flourish, spies

and informers auound. ,nd all this, because the government set out

to cheat. the hiss of th- serpent can just be heard as he glicus

away.

Itut rogues are less dangerous sirwly tnan in gangs; and govern-

ments have long ago discovered that they can cheat more successfuily

if they do it in collaboration ;,Jlth other governments. So they con-

spire to assist one another en the trick. bet U , tne:i say, weep

the rates at wnich our respeeria. citizens can ehahange their money

permanently fl-wed. If one of us finds his money LecominF, mor.e plenti-

ful aid therefor- cnear, ;,-;e lend nem enough o ow:' own to hoid

the rate up; and converse y, ct one of ua fends :Its nioney becoming

scarcer and therefore darer, hr will manufacturs r,-;ore of it to un-

load on tne market and SO keep tbe ra,e dour',

This is what is called a -monetary system-, in H.Irope it is

called the ;dropuan ken term System. Unen it existed eisenere

tne principal nations of th so riot efore 971, it was balled -tr1H

international rilobh;:tary mc. A mcnetar:: system is a high-faiutln

•

• - 3-

'expressien for a cohsplracy between governments to cheat. Governments,

nowsrer, nave not ohli nappy kn,lok of devising pompous eupnemisms

for their villainies. They has aiso a grim so:nse of humour, which

they indulge at the expense of their victims in this instance the

joke is a doubie one. The governments make their citizens pay for

tne cost of cheating them, either through inflation when governiffents

buy their own currency or throuzn raising loahs to buy other people's

currency. The other and more clelicious refinement is that governme.nts

persuade their citizens not just that they like being cheated but that

they would be downright miserable if they 1,iere not cheated. 1

•Thus it w'as that tnroun ail tne years beteen 194 and 1971,

britain lurched from one e');dnange crisis to another, the 'dritish

peop_Le were implicitly convinced that they vuuld stare ruin in the

face if the government ever stopped cheating - sorry, if the inter-

national monetary syste- over broke In feot, it did, but they

didn't. And thht brings me to a 'paradox of the sort which makes tim

fascination of 'Ale political scene ior those ',4ho oiserve it clo7 5.

Three years ago Thatcher and her government i'onsword cheat-

ing. All controls and pronibitions upon the diti'z,en e.,“in,c)ngirig hlp

money for tnt. money of other countries were swopt a'way, I remember

how I greeted the announc•ment in the tiouse of COraDoilsOy telling the

Cnancellor that I envihd nip. the privilege of having made it. vthat

was more, the government clear thot st ulU ne iohpar play

the cncating gam of sefling or Puying stesingH and snce enough

La-part from 'a f,:w lapses nn's Thatcher's Ode?.a o turned ahd the

b7'A.C,K of England got ao to its oe trlozs again, tne pr-nciple nas been

adhered to riigh or lo the npide of sterling: on the exonanges

these itst three yu71rs 'cis talc: tree truth about the ifct3 and tne

prospects as these wer,e or s,,en the o Jpie ,ho did the

veiuntar:j dealings, 'do, trl, government

hot flinched.

irld now here comes the paradox. All this notwithstanding,

britain continues to be a member of the International .;ionetary Fund

anu to support and approve it, though it is an institution created anc.

endowed for cheating as the casino at Monte Carle is organised for

gambling. It exists to borrow and lend in order to prevent currencies

from being freely exchanged at the values which correspond with tthel:'

relative scarcity and desirability in the light of ail the relevant

facts and expectations. What is worse, the Ohancellor not only pre-

sided at the recent meeting of the European monetary System but has

publicly -lauded as ideal a state of affairs in -,[hich the relative

411values of toe respective currencies coujh bh stable.(I

1-io,,4 is the parauox to us resolved? I believe there al', explana-

tions at more levels tan one.

J,t, the most superficial level one miht say that wilticians ancl

governments tsie to be still imprisoned by their pat 1Jords ano for-

lae even wnen theseappear to have ben rcnounceC hh practice. it is

one thin,s for hi,IG to reovo controls over dritish citizens and rein

the 'Eank of England in. it woula bo quite another to affront the

institutionalised majesty of those same worhs ann ormula and trvei

to Washington for the pleasure of telling the international monotany

coven wner tiley are '.,,elcome to go to. Lt last evn Luther had th_.,,Kes,d,e7 the officialstact to nail his tnesis uh: in ,,,iittenberg and nc:t fh ..hho• serve 500 att.ind upon regenerate politicians still oar livry of

thc unrgenerato whom tney have servO and attenc'eo u-,Ton nithrto.

this le7l the phenomenon would be no y,or, than a symptom of

the friction ahcl oustruction wl'iich all Oh,lhe of .,hion generates,

a part of thh inevitadie price of r-L;sipiserlc. but Ceoer fcro,.:s

arcelsa at work. in the recent ,:2risis of the EP,L., a word frequently

heard was "cohvergcnoe". the pr-establis:eh stablc. rLi_atjonship'4

betwcen tnc wliues of curr:.:ncis had come acril't, so it apocaz'eci,

tecaus... the r,sp:ective econies nad failee 05 convergc- sihCficientl

'Inc implication toot this 4as because t anerro:i ccilcies of the

•

r spective countries had diverg-a too much is of course an ahsurciu

coo are many factors other than domestic econoplic ant monetary poll

which go to determine the relative scarcity and desirability of a

currency. Technical changes, newly discoverd resources, variations

of taste and fashion thro ghout toe world are only soma of them.

Nevertheless, ther,.: lies beneaTh that absurd implication an important

verity. Tnere is one way, ana only one way, in which the respectivc

values of national currencies can remain stable: it is not the

"convergence' of the economies of the respoctive regions; it is the-•

merging of the national currencies into one curr-ncy, and that is

tantamount to the merging of the national sovpr-ignties into one

sovereignty.

At noart of ail government es the ape ite for power.

system which dcpends for its operation upon co-rcion is inher

attractive to government; for it is a field ld ihicti pouer can be

ex rcised, When governments exelcisc pow r ir non.o.r with. one anothe

not only is that field e::tended hut the inpunity of t.ri ...y(i3rcis,:,of

power is Lucreasec: seat of decisien and responsibility is one

stage further o . oied fr,rii the reach of tL citizenry datever past

courses this present go\lernment has aured, tde pursuit of enhanced

.7,.uthority through supranationai and international irstitutions iL]

among tnem. If therefore ;:a. are present-d std The contradicti 01

govarn,.ent at one and tn ear. time Pisa- anwor end courting

ther is no reason f()r to ..outt our ecnceuoeLons or tC) DC:sur-

prised by them.

•

A.A.0e,ee-ce‘.t.t'. 9 1-kevierek7,a,e4-ic_it,e, .2z

/t e law of averaso there oust ce scveral

pec;, n in tni, roonr wnt are ..'ascen"eO fro'shenry LP. nnrn is ale',ost, certainly o:Ila ens -eerson in this :coo, tne orson itn

wno Knows that n in , ano wno KnotTe nowhe is. We have of - an ese.siiv Lenn scletichistory; ans, those i,ienetici0m21O , shly

—rerear,Kacie events: ilesvas of valonr, oel,nts ecn:iihense, aistant ana roa,antie iatereasrriees,all sorts of varistionZuen t-nuc.an fortunes and nu:ton chan_seelitios.

,4-2'-toC1144.j-.,er nearly ail uf us tne Lies

— niOlrien in tns nacKness of a vast tnstnever ne exolnrea,ceasase the :sons isr ex:Inre:vsit uo net exist. enst la losK se:t soxith envy as with ,=:lor ineso sithfaelina;1 aKin t aratituil,u:son one efwho can trace cis line cacKvirmobs*, thro,,s evensnort a s'oan as aix nanorei vssors.ana oar tnanKfuinesa are in,creseen xaon

0"7,1-41,

of asseent senaist:a not of „, aeries of sLi hotanshyvcua ani feeicas ioL isuoLn, voriel,,aes;vinsi sna

tne ,:ent.,,ries- or oniatory, tao history thnt lives eo ea: Innesnrto setn a f,-,no, e =.,:f-eineat,,, env

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-E-

On the law of averages there must be several

people in this room who are descended from King

Henry III. There is almost certainly only one

person in this room, the person sittir cesidesme,

who knows that he is, and wno is that

he is. Ne have ail of us an ne.ii loe genetic

history; and those genetic histories, it only we

know them 4ould all be equally chnr ith

remarkaule events: deeds of valour, heights of

emiclehe ant and romantic

ali varition upon tne or

Ls crass oi tae

„ ist

tr co „„is lion

teat 0-ill

so much

a

number

even so

short a span as six hundred years. Our wonder

thankfulness are increased when that line

of unscent consists not of a series of ali but

an onnus nro faceless individuals, verified as

iivee and died and little more else, but

scores o passage across the centuries of our

history, the history that lives in cur own

hearts and minds, with a face, a personality and

a human story to mark each intersection.

-2-

Here is a genealogy which is the roll of

honour of England itself, that roll that every

Englishman should know and be proud to recite.

will call it off:

The foundation of English I andEnglish jurisprudence.

The House of York, that riao:t a:L3 fiest flower cf the English AiJadle A.

TL.; luocr monarchy and the i-eformatioh,finai recoonit-ion of itb own

^ICC

ichtary

-

. ' .lerance

l3th

The self-confident t n f :tctorianera In industry, science ano the'arts.

From NOMeh of these episodes was the name of

Hrd nhsent? On which of these periods did

the life or the death of a Norfolk, a Surrey

or an Arundel net leave its mark?

The meation of those placenames, like the

titles recited in the Agincourt Speech, recalls

the other dimension of history besides time -

•

-3-

the dimension of place, the stage upon which

the drama of the nation's history is acted.

All across the face of England we w7..tch the

Howards plant and build - in

in Nottinghamshire, in Sussex,

ffolk,

in Yorkshire. Their houses and their

lie the emblems on an old-fashionec. mac', declare

no j ist their lands and titles but our own

cowatcy Dur lovinu pride iii it.

C deleand ' s

Ltor of

, .t.sty '

' +- hat

its

or. s

tnot e, wnose own story

hi t oday.

it

ice

SO

Talk by the Rt Hon. J. Enoch Powell, MBE, MP, to theAssociation of Management Studies, Teesside, at theDragonara Hotel, Middlesbrough, at 7.30 p.m., Friday,

18th March 1963.

When a professional politician is invited to discourse to such

an audience as yourselves upon what Macbeth called "the coming on of

time", it is a salutary procedure for him to imagine that he is a

part-time member of the Board of a company with wide-ranging opera-

tions and investments and that the agenda of a board meeting having

been completed half an hour or so earlier than it is decent to have

the luncheon served, his colleagues have sugaested that he might

think aloud for their benefit about the political and economic

future as he discerns it.

There is one warning with which he would be sure to commence,

a warning all the more appropriate when speaking here, almost within

earshot of Darlington. "You may think you know", he would say, "the

outcome of the next general election. In that respect you are differ-

ent from me. I not only do not know, but, unlike you, I know that I

do not know. Consequently I do not permit myself any views or con-

clusions which depend upon assumptions about the outcome of that

event".

The disclaimer is not really as disabling as might at first be

thought. If anything is usefully to be conjectured as to the future,

•the conjectures will concern those kinds of development which are

likely to be much the same irrespective of the party livery of the

government of the day and of the professions which that party made

at the time of its election. Take inflation for example. The io-

flation launched by Heath's Conservative government was prolonged

by the successor Labour government until intervention by the Inter-

national Monetary Fund caused thbalt and a reversal, just- as it had

done a decade earlier when the milder inflation planted by Macmillan

and watered by Wilson was withered by a blast from the International

Wankers.

-2-4E1..

Having mentioned inflation, I should perhaps make that thp

subject of my first substantive observation. My own view would be

that inflation has probably had its day and that, although a lot

of people now feign to have lost interest in it, politicians when

actually in office will be extremely chary of getting that bonfire

ablaze again. I know that Peter Shore's speeches as Shadow Chancellor

are wildly inflationary if you take them at face value; but Chancellor

Shore would bear much more resemblance to Chancellor Howe than either

of them would probably regard as a compliment. There is such a thing

ac havi±n had the measles: you don't want to have the measles again,• -

* • unless it chooses. So to my colleagues on the Board I say: "If weand you don't have them again, and a government doesn't have inflation

must take decisions which necessitate assumptions about inflation,

IV! please play it low for I should not be surprised if we arefor a

period when the internal value of money will be as near stable as

it was before 1972, if not as it was before 1872".

To that proposition I would lAke to append a further reflection.

During a period when expectations of continued or resumed inflation

have rarely or never been disappointed, industrial relations and

collective bargaining have lived a hothouse existence. When annual

increases 615 money remuneration of 10%, 20% or even higher do not

prove to be out of line with the course of monetary events, every-

* body's attention is absorbed in putting up wages, and for those

professionally employed by the workers to do that job the greater

risks are in aithMng too low, not too high. But bargaining about

remuneration is concerned with something else besides the track of

future inflation: it is also concerned, and I may say predominantly

concerned, with changes in the supply and demand for different sorts

of work and skill. This seco function has for a long time now been

hopelessly tangled up with the first, but the nearer inflation

approaches to zero, the more exclusively industrial relations and

union activity will be related to real instead of random changes in

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•difffeentials. Judgment and leadership will be exercised in con-ditions which put a premium on shrewd judgment and accurate fore-sight. There was a world of instruction for the future in the outcomeof the recent strike ballot of the N.U.M.

In trade union management and industrial relations there area lot of stereotypes in existence which are going to be shattered.There is no benefit for this company in being obsessed with themin the way that many in politics appear to be obsessed.

It is tempting to move straight from the trend of inflationto the trend of unemployment - and no harm in doing so, so long as_a causal connection between the two trends is not implied. Thestatistics of unemployment, like those of inflation, have been norespecters of parties: the party or government which consiouslycreates unemployment belongs to the world of witches and hobgoblins,as the party or government which cures unemployment belongs to theworld of good fairies and marzipan cottages. Whatever the causesand I will come to some of them - which account for the climacticrise of unemployment through the last ten years, they lie in regionsoutside the ebb and flow of political parties and are likely to obeylong-lasting and slow-changing influences of a secular rather than anaccidental character. Those influences may very much concern the

' future fortunes and business decisions of this company.411 One of those influences is not difficult to distinguish. Thetechnologies which economise manpower in our staple industries haveoutstripped the discovery of opportunities for utilising in otherdirections the manpower rendered supppus. This has thrown out ofphase the normal process by which ability to perform existing taskswith reduced effort enables tasks previously uneconomic to be under-taken successfully. In Britain's case the oPeration of this techno-logical factor, which must be common to the world's developed industrial

- economies, has been reinforced by changes which are special to ourselves

-4-

and of these the most important is the fantastic turn-round in our

external trading position, with which politicians and non-politicians

alike have been slow and reluctant to come to terms.

The turn-round can be crudely expressed in two figures. In

1974-79 Britain had a cumulative trading (more accurately, current)cumulative

account deficit of learly £5 billion; in 1979-83 Britain had a trading

surplus of over £.13 billion. It stands to reason that a turn-round of

'this magnitude on our trading account, with the corresponding switch. •

from a large import of capital to a massive export of capital, con--

• fronsithe pattern of our economy with demands to which it could not

Orespond so suddenly. From an 'Expqrt or Die' nation we had become,

with permissible exaggeration, an 'Export and Suffocate' nation:

The conditioned reflex of attempting to meet mass unemployment by

increasing our exports was exactly wrong. The question to ask our-

selves ought rather to have been whether we could afford to be export-

ing so much.

It thus becomes crucial to attempt ttodecide whether this

experience is likely to prove transitory, so that its implications

can be shrugged off, or whether we need to accept, as a change that

has come to stay, the reality of a Britain which with 31 million

statistically unemployed can obtaiRlind more than all it is worth-/while obtaining by way of imports and which therefore must apply its

11,surplus resources to producing goods and services for its own internal

consumption. In forming that judgment, we need to address ourselves

to four highly topical and controversial itidues: oil prices, the

future of exchange rates, the relation of our economy to the

Common Market, and the exportation of capital to the.Third World.

That is a formidable but unavoidable quartet.

When Britain found an oil gusher in its backyard, that was bound

to upset the pattern of her faxternal trade and therefore of her whole

economy; but certainly North Sea oil and gas are not the sole cause,

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perhaps not even the preponderant cause, of our new trading position.

It does happen however that the coming into production of our Continent-

al shelf coincided with a period of artificially high oil costs - how

artificially, we can measure by watching the frantic attempts of the

OPEC countries to shore up a falling market by restricting supply.

It will not succeed. The world is like an over-saturated sponge

dripping petroleum from every pore, while at the same time it develops

alternative sources of energy and enhances the efficiency of energy

consumpttio. No barriers could hold against that combination. For

the temporary benefit of selling our expensive oil on a high market

we shall be forced to accept in exchange the benefits of cheap energy,

Ilks cheap perhaps in real terms as before 1973. How the balance will

work out in terms of our trading pattern is anybody's guess: it

would be prudent to regard cheap energy as only partially offsetting

the reduction in the contribution which oil will make to our net

trading surplus. The mistake we must not make is to imagine that

the collapse of world oil prices will bring back the conditions and

the trading pattern which obtained before 1973.

A feature of the last four years which has surprised many people

is how little the emergence of our new trading pattern has been

affected by the wide fluctuations in the exchange rate of the free

• floating pound sterling. Alike when the pound stood high and exporters

Illcomplained that they were being ruined, and wehn their prayers were

answered and the pound swung down to levels which turned haiir grey

in the Bank of England, Britain's trading surplus forged ahead

apparently undeterred. At no time was the exchange value of the

pound in any natural sense "too high" or "too low": high or low,---

it stood at its market value, and what other meaning can value on

an exchange have? On the other hand, the pound actually way over-

valued for most of the time between 1945 and 1971: the international

arrangements, observed with religious awe up to the last moments when

observance became impossible, for maintaining fixed exchange rates

!JAL

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between the principal currencies put Britain especially at an almost

continuous trading disadvantage. It is natural therefore to wonder

if those years are destined to return, for there is no doubt that the

priesthood who worked that particular oracle would like to see them

return.

I think they will not, and that, despite all the clamour which

those who make their livelihood out of the chaggeability of markets

are apt to raise for governments to give them stable prices, and

despite the near squeak in the summer of 1978, when Callaghan was

40pulled back by the coat tails from tumbling into the European

Economic System. The reason for my hunch is that when people have

once tasted the fruits of liberty, they will always have a repugnance

to losing it again when it comes to the pbint. The foPlowing, from

a financial writer,this week, put the matter graphically: "Unlike

Britain, which can let its currency float freely, the French are oblig

by virtue of membership of the E.M.S., to maintain the franc within

a parity which cannot be changed without the agreement of all member

countries. Any devaluation of the franc will affect their economies,

damaging exports to France and giving French exports a competitive

edge in their own home markets".

There it is in a nutshell; and tt r in a nutshell is also

the reason why sooner rather than later the U.K. is no longer going

to be part of the E.E.C. itself. people are told that this is impos-

sib4e, because 40% of our export trade would be lost; but those who

tell them that are the same crowd who until 1971 were threatening

that international trade would come to a halt if the pound were to

be floated. You cannot indefinitely keep a nationaor an economy

in subrodination to.the decisions of others, when the interests and

habits and situation of those others are so divergent from its own.

Horace's "Nature", which Heath "expelled with a fork" in 1972, will

make its come-back, and probably, in true British fashion, through

-7-

the agency of those who most loudly disclaim any intention of letting

it do so. The result, pace the bogey-mongers, may not at first bestriking in terms of trade and economic patterns; but in the longer

run there would be a shift in the direction of those markets and

those opportunities from which membership of the E.E.C. has been

withholding Britain compulsorily.

That in itself might tend marginally to counteract the bias

towards production for meeting internal demands, which Britain's

recent trade pattern foreshadows. But if so, the fourth member of

the controversial quartet points strongly the other way. It is

what I denoted as "the export of capital to the Third World". Brandt

or no Brandt - dare I say, Heath or no Heath? - doubts which had

formerly been repressed or suppressed as disreputable or downright

immoral have broken through recently and will hardly go back again

into the bottle. I have glanced already at the iron law of the

universe which decrees that a current surplus must be balanced by

a capital deficit, or in other words that those who persistently

sell more than they buy must equally persistently lend to the rest

of the world the wherewithal to pay. That might have been all very

well if the rest of the world would pay you back (with interest) so

long as you had the patience to wait. But we are now receiving a

different message: the rest of the world is not going , pay cack,

0 with or without interest. That was what the meeting in Mexico was

all about.

Brandtism, or aid to developing countries (which, disturbingly,

have turned out to include the Argentine), puts a cruel gloss uponb:the iron law now has to run: those who sell more than they

buy must pay for their own products and give them away. That is

exactly what it sounds like, namely, a mug's game; aad the trouble

with mug's games is that individuals and nations eventually get

tired of being had for mugs. Under one guise or another - banking

or benevolence - no small section of the British economy is sustained

• -8-

in its present form by playing just that sort of game. Sooner or

later people are bound to say to themselves: let us at least pro-

duce what we want and not what is wanted by others who will not pay_

for it. That would not, of course, put an/ end to overseas invest-

ment, not even to net overseas investment; but it would limit it

to investment undertaken on its own merits in terms of risk and return.

This, by diminishing Britain's capital deficit, would automatically

7K. diminish its current surplus/rith corresponding consequences for the

economic pattern of our production.

My colleawaims on the Board are now beginning to show more interest- -

in the prospect of luncheon than in the random thoughts of their parti.

'rime colleague. They may be right; but before the aperitifs are

served, I want to leave one thought in their minds. Success in

business depends not on being right when everybody else is right

but upon being right when everybody, or nearly everybody, else is

wrong. This does not of course mean that views which diverge from

popular expectations and common parlance are thereby automatically

validated. It means no more than that they should not on that

account be disregarded, especially by those whose role in society

does not require them always to locate majority opcbnion and be

heard voicing it.

NOT FOR RUoLICaTION UR REFERENeETO CONTLNf BEFGRE, TIME, OF DELIVERY

Speech by the Rt Hon J. Enoch Powell, MBE, M , to theInstitute of Bankers at the Ladbroke Mercury Hotel,Newport, Gwent, at 7.15 p.m., Friday 11th March, 1983.

In the last three and three-quarter :years the United Kingdom

has nad a surplus on current account with the outside world of

E13.1 billion. I will repeat that -statement In other terms. In

the last three and three-quarter years the United Kingdom has been

a net lender to the outside world (inciudinp:: repayment of debt) to

the tune of £13.1 billion. Things had not been like that before.

In tne preceaing five years, 1974-79, the United Kingdom's current

account with the rest of the world had turned in a deficit of £4.8

billion, in other terms, the United Kingdom during that period had

benn a net borrower from the rest of the eorld to the tune of E4.8

billion.

To what extent that nieture is due to the development of

Britain's indigenous sources of oil and gas is an unkno no It comes

as a shock to be told firmly by the Government statisticians that

is not possible to provide a reasonable estimate of the contri-

bution of North Sea oil and as to the balance of payments". Tne

reason is that "no estimate can reasonably oc prepar:a of what the

current account would hanJe been in the absenne of North Sea oil and

s". The same, needless to add, applies to what the capital account

0 would have been. Se, while it is a fact that in ti-R, three one tnr-e-,

quarter years our crude balance of trade in oil v,ees about i7 eiliie

we must beware against simply setting th t fi-ure against tne current

surplus of £13,1 billion.

This is a chastening se ne for us to nontemplate. do may, in-

deed, witn some convictien conclude that the dramatic turn-around

in Dritain's current ind capital accounts witn the rest of the worie

must nave had much to do witn the exnloitaton of the Continenta

shelt, though we do not ana cannot know now mucn. 'ioe may aio go

on to conjecture that the equaar aramatec rise 0: uneenleyment during

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the very years when that turn-around was taking place was connecteh

with it as cause and effect are connected; but tnat is one degree

more impossible still to prove or to quantify.

All the elements in the total picture are interdependent.

cannot, as if it were a painting, obliterate one of the fiures or

features and then stand back and see now the pictuoe would nave

looked without it. Alter one element, and all the r-st change so

as to accommodate tnemselvcs to the alteration: it is a seamless

could forbid the oil to

stillflow or the capital to be e::ported ana.be-adie to command the con-/

sequences. The iron law which ehuates the current account and the

411capital account at a zero sum fulfils itself through a myriad ofchanges.

This is an uncomfortable reflection for those who believe that

spucific economic rasults can be produced by national - or, for that

matter, by international - planning and compt sion, Yet it may bring

some reassurance to those who are inclined to e:kpect little more fro

government than that it snould refrain from making things worse, and

even that, more by luck than good judgment. L-t us come back to oil

for a moment.

When a combination of events in 1973 pushed th-, priee of oil

on tne world market to dizzying heights, there were tnosa who aI irm-•

411ed that what went up would come uewn, and sooner rat; than later.

here are some words used in December 1973

6 As for oil, let but the hrice ofcil inc ease - anu I mc,an

real increase, an increase relative to other prices, not an increase

which simplh r fleets inflation and tne Sheikns will wonder what

nas hit tnem. The resources of substitution and d;;ennity, not to

mention the abundant sources of petrocnemleal and etn r enk.rgy

throu nout the world, wil spring to our assistanoe once we allow

crice Lc tell us the truth about supply and d•ma d.

Contemplating the procaotlity of tnis parabola to th, price of o

webo. Not ev n the ukaze of a 6taiin

• -3-

soak, of the same people drew attsntion 'to tee dilemma whicn britain

mignt then face. In December 1977 one of them said this NThe

delusion tnat oil helps our balance of payments is nnotably the

original cause of tie whole lamentable nonsense about North Ssa.

oil. Of course if we do not import so much, we aa not need to export

so mucn. What ls more, if we continue to export ana even to increase

our exports, the only result is that we should have to inesease our

lending and investment overseas. acne of this in itself makes us

either richer or poorer; it only means tnat toe fraction of our

national product that is exchanged with tho rest of the world is

less tnan before, and the fraction exchanged amonst ourselves pro-

411portionately more than before,"How stands the prospect now for a Britain with an exuberant

current account surplus related, to an indeterminate extent, to the

development of its oil ana gas resousces? That relationsnip will

change as the world market price of oil declines and the compensatory

forces work out a new pattern of britain's current and capital accounts,

utilising as a cosputor the mechanism of the exchange rate, through

which, directly or indiroctl , all the relevant data are fed.

If tn(J result of that is either a low current surplus or even

a resumption of tne inward flow of capital paiment'z which was the

n counterpart of our current deficit jn tha 1970's, where is the tragedy

410in that? it is certainly not clear enough to justify britain attempt-.

ing to keep the price of oil up by encerene iota cartels and con-

spiracies. The Government has 'seen ant to stick by the world mar-

ket price and to sell rrut it non enere it cae whiAs the going lasts.

With luck, tne Government will also resist any temptation to paint

the Union jack on the i4orth Sea arums and tsist our arms to be .good

patriots and 'hey 'british'. Unlike tho s,:-'armer who nangea himself

in the expectation of nlenta- It ns hole to the common sense which

tells Us tnat cneap energy eas got to r-.) good ZIWS,

zients and wnosir investments have to tie wsitten eff in the nrocess.

!We sroulo De ace however, not to e.s.pect a simple :E3,:ersa.

of tne exi.Jerlohoe of the past iOur years True, if our oil surpluz

(whatever it is) diminishes or disapT:ears, it be reasonable to

anticipate a growth of the imput Into the United'iingdom's

of payments from the ma;-4ufacturing sector, na hitherto

squeezed to aocommo•abe the oil factor. Lven 50, the contin

trene in the cire:Aion of manpower supstitution in Lianufact1::Jj.

iniLustry stands as a warning against tremting as superficial or

volatile many of the causes of the prevaleht niL:h levels of unemploy-

rLent. The notion that, stripped of our oil Eurplus, 1-e shall compete

* our way into full er.,ployment turou:c.h eH:ortin ;11(J. repiacinL irnr_)orts

410looks more and more like a chimer, it was a -egativ attacnee.

tLiat the la:)el of 'the workshop world" wa first tied to

r-_:ritain, when Disraeli rear.'ked that orlt would never suffer

us tc riefloac pjut tnat, will they, nor can e, new ec,uiii-

triuLl of tritain's tradc a,aca tri;- ratt-J computer will pr-L7it

out is to fatur'e a massi. curr,crt LurlJlus sutained by

a massive epart (D._ ca:Dita.

If that ls so, it will be in for:(3 of procor and servie5

whir'll Ho not, an,i largely .)y their natl:,f;e (afi into the

i',aiance of international ti-ade tflat resi--,2s. of unuse

. and underused macipowr brainpc havr_: to find teir cut1-1:t.,

- That may mark tn carr0 or cc ca will n',t ":1-:al* a

.7:aterial or national.

britain is r.[.A a r'n Ocif , a ir a:3mt,fr

out the history of toss isiLnd nation it naL

thot it was h,ot to L. its

T',1ost ext.-±nsave ' It cc,litinuf

to ma its 5T,rn Jtanclars arc.:1 to fc',11c r):=1,L: h

an futuro too.

.

á

á

iOT 'EOE t"UbLICATIO OR HEFEEEU'CE 'TO LOTEh'f Ebl,'OE11, ii_u,,t-..: (_.'i: DCLIVEE

Speech by toe Et Hon J. Enocn Powell. ,i,i.',, to to SouthendConseruative Association Dinner at the Westclif-f- Hotel,Southend-on-Sea, at 8 p.m., Saturday, 26th 'hebruary,

Tilre are now british forces in trw I,osanon They are d.e.-

cribsd as being "part of a multinational forco'T Pot in response

to an enquiry which i addr,d;ssoe to Hd Government I ;ias informed

not only that they are "under british jurisaiction but that

"coman„1 authority" over them "will po e7,,cr'ciseu e:clusively by

the britisn government tnrougn diplomatic and military. channels".

That is a curious expression, but it clearly means tnat tho

- British ambassador and the foreign Office snare wito the m iitarys commandor on the spot anO tne inistry of Defnee tie operational

direction of the force. The rcfrenco, tnerefore, to thelf beJng

'part of a multinational force.' is misicac'ing. Operationally they

arc tneir oma snow and not part of anything eise Strategy and

tactics alike are exclusively the responsibility of H..X.O„ which -

to take tho matter a stage further - is to say tnat thoy are

exclusively the responsibility of the british farliament.

This position nas apparently o'en acc.:ptod by the government

of the Lebanon, which agreed to thb presonc,--i of our forces in trt

country by means of what is called "a fo=i :;;:chang of letters

Con Ui 0 .tut.n" the two r.::.overnments, tilougn the Jotters thuL7

III changed have not T(o Pori pubi:Ise,.-1 ani tir:.. 't'orein Offic, 1,;nen

I invited them to •uolisn tn,:m, s1m).:4 ref._,rree me to a forthcominF

cemmand 1,-apzr, whion na-3 not f7; 7_ipar,

eresu:,:ah;ly the situation of t,:. opiler forcign forces in

L.Joan,o,n is on ail fours witil e,r,:.=.,t of our (i,Irl Thoy Poo are totaTly

soparate units witn no corimon commanc and no common soure of

,ThrCil'S, Any co-ordinatich t,e tn.317, .rt ' ..s f choctives or

of operations, is porej,y inciuotal or iformal _ in:_y :_r_-‘:. rat.,::r

iirct. motor oar criving about on a ::.-ia:.:sy::,to-::: -.L1Pn0ut any ro.d

tl'ffic 1.,,::t3, C2 at any rat witr.,:a;-: 17.1-,.7zit:-1::;wnroJid tralOfle

for you will note that the service personnel remainT'uhoer

british jurisdictionlcarryiroj (as It were) a juri(lical 2.hc1ave about

with them wherever they go. Presulhably tne British Tommy Thfcrms

the Leoanese policeman, in tems borrowed from Paul of Tarsus not

so far away, that ne is "a citizen of no mean countr-2, even

britain", and prosuLnaOly tne soldiers of the other forces reply

correspondingly. in short, our force is .present ant operatirig in

nc Lebanon neither through nor undr any sort of international

authority and mandate. g Now, our serviceman, needless to say,

nave arms and ammunition, ard these not f'or purely ceremonial use.

It may be saiC that they hov.. cnLu for self-teforce: but according

111 to where ono chooses to put oneself and to tnc., tactical situaticn

the time, efence and offence are not aays sharply differentiated.

I pose therefore the following question which at pre.rsent, so

far as I know, is only a theoretical one but which at any moLent -

pernr,ps as I stand Lore now - can oCoca. a '1.'acticai c-,uestIon.

We may as well tnink about It a little, before someone else asks it

ant insists on an answer, Suppose of our coo in accordance

with a lawful comi.iland and in course of file Juty , fios at somo,.2.v

Airri no ',11c2P if this .FUalt:." Leeanese, or

. e‘ise?alostinian, or Syrian, or 1:srail, or anytrin,yo;..1. caro to naTo

my :,411estion is still the same, and it is tis_ What ano

what justifiaation rave He Majesty's sritish

foo' oing to Ihri".;n nflci cc. ot:L..1::c that c.an?

L. not tor-c6tor,., ror was not atta:::-

log it, z..u1c1 tnor no brItl- ih c. oo are

not o± nocno tne iives british civilians nn .,:or„..n soil. for

near not attac:kThg

trl'itory and lives cf any allies bf a

ujc, So fou- us istunri Or

answor, it "iqouidrs); fo ono, nc_:

.L.3 but wnat a. ao. tni? it Aot

s

•

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peac, fol' the Queen's peace doos not e,d3; in th L:banon. -Xt

must then be "peace" in general, meaning tht, aosenee of violence

and sartioularly of armed violence.

Sec where this has taken us alrcaiy i,:_:,t',-,12.ritish govern-

ment, parliament and peole, :who arc not responsiDie for tho

governnt, the administration, the policin :DI- the good order of

t-i-e Lebanon and who could not b'o responsible for these th ngs oven

i.f we wanted to be, nave taken arms and crossed the sea and shot

th,it man. 1 ask again T,:hat conceivabl argument of reason or law

or morality can justify it? 'irlc. I ask that question with the moro

insistence and warmth beeausn tho Eousc, of t_;ommons, of whioh 1 =

a Membr, never approv, and never c-c,s initeJ. to approve, what

has her, done on my responsibility Enf. on -ycr's

1 do not know the answul' to :!, ,74-stt_, :..,.:;,Laileit has hot

been --,Iven. So 1 must guss unat it would J fio'vl, cc pr

sure miy guess will be on ttl: ,7Y.:, lb:.:answer coJ.t. 0, W. (nr

it in our national interest, for we have7'n national interest in

peace in the Lebanon an,i cv aF.i breci<ing it-, -..o not misunderstanc

ille: thc,re in a national interest of w•bichif I am convinced 1 will

ask no furtner qu stionc. but come again, if 1-1,2ed bc, from the

antipodes to,i.a..1, th Queen's coat - supposin she would give one

to an olq age pnsionr, uut„ wnat 1:±:cni 'las a national inter,st

ih peace in thc Lebanon tnat would justify tuo deliberate risking

of oritisn life or tne taking of foreicm ilf?

i will examine tnat nuection seriouly arc :,,i'll not L::_3mis

it - as one well could do - by sicipiy L:vin.,s tnat,

pace in th,,,:Leoanon (whatover it m.:anh is not som,tiingtnat

'ritain can estaolish e'4en witn 0 sc.ra.-.-.-r c.,r f,:aintain

force, any more tllan aii_ the mignt of ,11,,rica coulo establish or

naencain it in lndo-Ohin. Since "T_Deac,..;- -,7,aci:=; in t!-La_[ont..:=:t

tri.:: absence or violence, tht7, Inii.lt oorr„_, bout _r-, variety of

It could come about oy t.),oupation (,)[.. t•_. Lo.1.11-0:.1-y ..'y an

4external power or by its partition or by an equillorium of force

amonst its neighbours - I mention but a few •f the almost infinite

number of nypotnetical situations. What interest does *ritain have

in any one of these in preference to any othor of thcso or to things

as they are';

The safety, the economic .4elfare, the good oruer, the happiness

of the United Kingdom are not lessened tv tile stato of misery and

violence wnich we understand to prevail in tne Lebanon, except in so

far as no part of mankind is totally and aDsolutely exempt from the

remote and indirect consequences of what happens to any other part

• of manind - but that is the very opposite of a national interest.

11/ it is true tnat tne present pattern cf rowe. in th,::Lervant could

alter in ways that mip:ht ultimately affect in sonic ,,,,ay the safety,

economy, ete., of the United Kingciflm. In this way a Syrian peace in

the Lebanon or an Isra,_:li pac-3 in the Lebanon er a lalestinian

peace in tno Lebanon might, in long historical l'etrospect, prove to

nave had different implications no.' tre Uniteu Kingdom. There are

indoecl such currents in world history, enereby what happens on the

frontier of (;hina in one century can be shown, or argued, to rave

affected what ha!Jpned some hundreds of -yar:' lator to burgundy or

Bysantium; but that dorls not makE: evonts on tnc Groat ',alii an

identiflarle national intst at eonsrant,inc.c -.)r Di on, nor

signify that tne state of affairs in -.Lbanon ooncrns britain atly

mor than the state ef aff:Lirs in S,,,ii.,on t :wwc out to hav,:.J conoornO

t; unit€:cl Litats.

L':-y concluion is r-tiLtin no :tion:11 ,r1s; can it be said that

"peace in the Lebanon- ib a hritisn 1:*tiJnE.':I intk.:r,,Lt. it would

follcc that the pinc::: of p. :,ritisn niliitA.ry fol: In 1..La.(7,n,

its ii]licit accptanct. of ti,_ 1.os5 f initish lifc an,- tnr.

ta;,:eng of forei;;1L lii',2, (7:an:, ration,E,11:r: 0.51111 .:-:-,., Ufli rti fi_ ,:.

..4ell wonuc, ton, now sun a t:E ooni !lav,.: (-:::::. _IJOI,ItirtuF1lii

C.it'ficut -,L,(.,bt,;,-2and certainiy witnolit (iliThrtoi au(iIoi,. i

am sure that i cannot give any oxhaustive e7xpianation of that

curious and potentially dangerous pnenomonon cut onb or 1:,wo

causes of it I think I can detect.

One is that even now, after a quartr of a contury, we still

nave not fully digested trin i'act tLat britain is neither a.

Nediterranean nor a Middle .Eastern nor an Indian nor a Far Eastern

power. Consequently we do not analyso, an6 probably prefer not

to analyse, language which only made sense in that past era and

which makes sense no Longer. Half conscious of that contradiction,

we devise expodients for keeping tne obsolete vocabulary alive,

and the United States has Ok--en happy for us to do so because thereby

we assjsted it in its diffr,int nut no less hallucinatory pursuit

of power ana influence in other countribs, continents and hemispheros!

we and they could sass tne time wa'itin;_:,P for Codot tno more agree-

ably for having one another's company.

Hecently, and in the Middle i-ast esbecially, we have found a

no,4 fiction as the American fiction has worn tnreadbane and fashion

has turned against it. This is the new fiction of something calle

-iturope" behaving as an international ]:Jower and advisin, s,ormen-

ising, pontificating in the Lovant, for all tne world llo the

concert of Europe after the iapoleonic wars when it presided criJi'

the dissolution of tho. Uttoman. :Lmpirc. It ls as a part of the !f.0

and in pursuance of "Coroics" Middle Eastern :)olicy• unveiled in

tc,e qenice Declaration ,Lnat britain pr cIties pacc in that re!4ion

to t-)o our concern an'e cuzz_s, busy .as a Pee, ronC thh Yanious

intrestscapitals promoting uhtPle solutions to tn.J, conunnuL ot/that are

irreconcilable by acfinitir)n and re7.01wlie on ;r t arhitram,nt

of successfui forcn.

fhrc ls easy excue for our Irrational haYiour in

wnich we ought not to i oulg It ib tn: excus- tnat after all

tt can o iittL, or no nt=. Ail decebcaon, ineludln,g self-

:.ception, does ,,arm. ieace in tt'IC, in the ':.liddiaJ

•

Last, there will be one day, when a new equiLit:ricm of local

forces has evoived and been povec and tested. What will b-

the pattern of that equilibrium, neither we nor anyone else can

predict, still less contrive. It iS in any casQ:t, to be

a pattern that we would not nave chossen or constructed.

cannot nasten toe arrival of that equilinrium. but we can do

sometning to delay its arrival py acting en tho fals:_: premise

that peace in tho Middlo t:ast is 'Britain's national interest.

Not rarely thL3 true benevolence of nations towards tne rest of

eenS-ists in recop:nisinE; t.• nits of thesr own interests,

411 responsibility r.,-nd power, and in c()nforminE; to tnoso lifLits not

only in their actions but -in th,=.1r words.

•

u ic i. hon. ilk-,00 ck .

dO b

L,UOUS Ol10ILnot

cialmln(s tnat for. Lin oo a lai 0 ri1C0 tnere

:.re no excevtion:3. I sipi.j L;Li;, It 2L.1e

tu cein6

'taken fc..r a rine or at ...a3t t() kno tilat o 2 oo ta'ken

a ricie' if you cannnt 001 It,

nen pc.:opici near that b:italn Is 1..ncing ioney

00 11..1.p It rei_.1acu toe a',.':;;aunts It ic,:2:t In 116

411aet of eosorin, tney o Our tt an ir thlnL; to do,"

ls

of colLTIon if

irio. a

ncYc.. 1dt0.0 It io 0 11cus-nf,c that L:1-it10

a.1c0Ld00tI0 Oo, a nonsuns,

a

.,unsn.so 15 ah

surfL. ariu nctle a .•,art of

vastr of una.

;Inc ide r. Iada on orc 0. 'foz a

SUillit'd•

is Gut, o .

tn

not-, at

O:.,Ct._L_ 0,0 . ;')s

--‘n(Jt

- nFly, 6,1 -

HE: "=;..5

11-0, 1, 3. arr.: 0 ,H-10

nonsensos 0ibit- ,7Lnd. for -rasc-,n. it is 1 'v;

ann to fiorisn so vp_oousl-',.. =-n?c', so lnL,0 an

e.nvironnt is tneir 10;01for c C0S onc

is lioutc to t)(- mor crirtici of of,:lifsoc1;ractioc:s

to ue ic)cai or pc1_111r, notnin is so W,.untint:i; orthount-stoppinL,

aL, appro7;LI on :7111 Liues.d,iorl.u. it is

tricK of St Aui7,,,ustinovt,:r seenrus iuclicat

"%4nat ev-Lrywouy tnini,(s osOt to b:0 r-Lbl.,t-, Alas, tnat

or r,i74 not cio for combatinii r)ut when tne nti0n3

in sL;re,:: upon somtninL;, tht

warnInL, to look out for trouoi'-.

It rc 00cf.:0 to ps tn-Ht rlum0r of cwvnt, suen

1,exic0 7J1d tn /.t1n, incluinL;tje) som, whion ar':2

0sst,0 of 61';_t 0710urai 00S0UL0.S , 0nc)17,C tr' - or

7,ny rnt. UISOU U tro,t intntion cr

ts or tno 111)n Thif3 condition s

Cescriboc: is

ne;ep i02s th

try: in0

onc uf t.hesinc c ',icr0

r'tnc:ct..Lt

0 tv troat,). 07:,••

410 c,r_c,d on. r s

countyri,..0si -711 to•

icm:s tn,

frcm trsi2tupo

frim

s;i:"

•

•

F.•os into.'ntinO1 or oit Moro !.s crlt ono,or—

DC.ti'k, I trust, sc,und - rInd tfl,...ru. Is i it in s

Out in aon-t Orno

tauy nr.V lost it, it

"Idi tn, fin nc zt"01.it

cc) tr--.cu. not r:uy CU0L;oocs if thoy v--ty

fur tnom- So tn: rrIzu.Innt Is toot uo :314uid •v for oui-

toum oory ths ois Cots Cr nlx. 000:t

thiC tflo o OtnO countrius 000CC t UltoCOt inIpart1nc.2;

t rm

'tnoir c:ocIts ,;)ff, Is ,xotly

IIIsn. tnin , thc:y or it,

it ls too 1):yili„.; of ci,ots, riot 0 n01n0 o

s to intcrilioni

wr,o o.l co no no 0,, sio terIm,

.L7St o. C 1)::n= 110 O0C- COO

h1PLI ilk, to shru yo).-1 -If

sh, p[:.st .1,rosnt

of p..'-onts" - tht, sulicts un

oh wcul v fr tri.:Dr, 11,1,11d cs'L- 17.:7

c:i.rourristnees thr:n If fr.Y1y1,or

[-i1ri1st! 0 051 10, -to

- t o 1.:i• • -I;

r'r _oLO 01-1 th-lt "110I0

1:3 0Tf--.0i7,

c•-• I t.; 1 I' .

irocL *G"

of tL,, ';: 0,

_ V •

1

1 1 t

t1•7.

1

L

•k_

„

it

si:a..ret, ' t•

H

„

CI

C

t •

cni;v:L du -.1 '

r is L n3

tr3.1 Litc

c

11t1C2M 71. UC1L ;

15 Sti 1.1

t

„

7.o.L_11), n 0 5;

-

^

,

3Lt t

• ..„HLI0...11.0 0Y10

Steech oy The Rt hon. U. Lhoch 5O0OL, tothe Annual Dinner of the f.luersnct noon ,antsConservative Association at o b.m. -,rida:", 4th.i,euruary,Y1T,, at tn Princo,'s hmli,

P.ftr fifteen hours of deOate on toe antceent:,, of the in-

vasion of tne -alkiand Islands and enormous coverage bv the news-

papers and other media, anyone could be f:oriven f,pr supposing tnat

there was not a single paagraph in the report of tnE, ranks 1-eview

upon which the spotlight of attention had not rested he would,

however, be mistaKen. There is such a bararaph, it is one of the:

' •ost arresting; and if the purpos of stucly:ThE-2, thE.: ReT,:)ort was t0

(1raw wessons, for the future, it was argilaoy tr..7: most irriportant

passac of P.11.

%as to blame for the invasion happenin ar*.n.ow? : sy

Eenerl Galtieri and t(1., Argentin,.7:. Some oy no 1.natchr and her

administration. T soy neitner I say; moreover, 'v."rahks

mai,ces it irrsistibly -:Dlain woo tL,rI culT:rit 74as. vkly

hOt nobor_:: - untU now at - narien to mntion rr real culprit

hecausc: ai_.os-ie-terybody has a ..;:isted inhOrhOt or (wnat :unts to to

samu thing) almost ,_-..verynody ho 1:;.s avShO,0 iotst in

not doiag so. Th,J cu_Lprit was te Un...teH lt is with

United ations that th,: -11.,s fop

. (On,:t)loodsnd967 a r.Jsiutl,

is quotd in tne i::ranks lor

th _,t'fort mad, to

l00-111tat pro,,ss or t;!,

populatIon ro thh th,,n

gov,.72fhments of nno

cL.motiations LO ;:tr', 7 5-1“::

oeneril soon as pos11,1;;: on th_

Losu7Lig 1y

-

a sickjo',at, it would o. difficult to if:ino nOr cyrkloally

(.):' criminally absurcl or insultingly provoctiv actiofl.

a p(ody whicn pup-ports to do in thc, businoss of i0 anu

JUStICe tn.7puL,;houtto osrin, a body h.jann or tht tr-1 ar. im-

partial fora for pronouncing_ on trritorIai disuts, a oody, mor-

'kmows to c nc such forum has found aainst L4'itain's

rightful possaalif tn,-; Fal1Jahd Th7Yt body takes upon

dQA_ic):ratly to insult oritairt ny voting its L:ratituclE; to

rgntina for end(aavouring to acquirc toa islands from thir lauful

ownrs ann to annex th,,:m to its own territorios,

I ilvE; to add that th..:3 Ganral asse:71oly -passd tha rsoiution•y102 votos to orn:: (britain) witn i2ans.Lantions.

I sly- tnat it i2 Iss disgrc:ful fop tho Unitd iatins to

hav paszd that -i'solution than it 1s disracfl for britin to

culnn?2; to a body which would pe St trot, so fiono affront to

justic, to rason anb to good .'ltlons sonr,ij7n 5tates,

It was an action wnicn could 0. motl ;OteO.lot by cohotrn for tn..:

of or' flypociy out only Py

puOc sitc f(_)r spite's sok tnt this

wLs samtt Rc:s0J._ucion 52 pre2,_ad ourv5

utn tr,ating on mancti.)ry uH:n (JJ:tifulL 11,.11 n pro-

to our inhor,:nt an(i Of

to r,:possdss what 0'.0 us could

ding to tu justifid in th7_t

Action - t_)cdy

trp_ it j..f to 0. n 1:.1,

s ° ph

wiil ri-;y

tdo of innincsrity y,:art -

an

:hu5J!-)u2:,, it t,or- tht

3

not alcno in that, and tnat ail around u wrocIggrcd in thc sam,

hypocrisy. Soon,n- or iat,,r numbug catchos up iatn you and wrc,aks

its rovng,3 by d_nrinding tnat you troat as fact 41:laa you nau only

moant as pri.tnc. This is vJny it is so dangorous to snrug our

shouldors and go on taiing tnroun our nT.Its with tt-I r„J!Dry oxcuso,

- inat 111.rm rocs it cc? Anyhow, it's too '.1.71.t now to start tcilini;

thE, trutn".

Tncr is Icgitim-itc room for doubt wnothcr any insLitution

could Do invcnt C to uo what tno Augustan Homans imagincd Was

tni_ function and Ustiny of tnir city, "co is.pos(: tno v.?_ys of

poacro" - and ,von th,oy clic, nut supposd it could r), dono 1/4ithout

• 4i fordo and war._ 'tnat is not opn to dPubt onctk r ro was tnc evidone

of at in our own caso staring us in tnc fac - is that tho Unitod

ations as inherently unfitto to bo Elnytnirg but soundin-borc

for prjud:cc, vc:nom anP tn wi._11to por as v rdicts arQ: tho

vrdicbs of a pacd jury,

All tnis is not narc!ilss, -Ft rorra lirc yost, arousing

aniz:osity anu stirring cupidity - as I said publicly at a parlia-

mntary gnrai loction tnirty yors go, 'c,:;accroating ail con-

flicts and solvir, nonc". nor did britain co,-clt: to tTho. th.At first

fatcful stcp of c_Iparting in 1967 frnm our :2ositIon tnat ttu

custion of aovrolg-nty ovr tno 'not nego-

't a st,p fror ahieDi th.c chin of ':;...A1S,„; and o'ffoct str•,tcns

dc-vn tnrour tno yars to folly of 3 I •;r3r,

.rcn -198 Inc mswr is in Hr inn, On V.An a ror 1965 t.,

lisse.mly of tn.: Unitp a r,sciution

aUcir.,..:ss to Lrg...ntin:,. and its -ohorlshou Lim

of L,r11-iing OO OOi i.a n

ono.. of wnich aOV,rS tin d:asc

and is, only oO. ipproprit f'usponst:: to

rot•. d..:finitlon of

co=cion.Snss:r oxt..n.: to inl a -1:-.--±-vt-ras, Its Inn-Lints

Lt

not, inosed - tncir numbers are, in any cJBsu, et Ireseric too

small - rpresuntcd :L71 ehrIiment, any more than are tna innabito.nts

of ::Lrsey or 7my more than the inhatitaints of i'llerto -tico (which

-y force of arms from Snain in 186) arc represented

in Congress; put tht no mors mayes Bnitisn sovoreignty of the

xuiiflt Islands '.coloniiism" then Uritish sovurcifnty of tioi Isle

of l'an is "coioniails-.

med with this ugregious ipiece00 nonsense, which Britain,

being integral to tho grand numoug of tho United .2ations, oas in-

niotod from repuoiating, could it be wondered at tht the Argentine

proceuded year by ymr to nag and threaten, ontli it had naggsd and

•nreatenod itself into an act of open nggression, only to be tah

by surprise whun British public obi!lion forced tnc t.iovernment and

?ariiamsnt to go to war instead of acquiescing? Thus Britain, dnd

not just one political party or Anothur, not just one F,overnment

or ,f1notnr, snaros the United Nations guilt by viotuu of having

tolerated and not ropudiated pot's, its unural nussoug and this

particular uynlpl,: of that humbug onion affected Britain itself

I sui::...pcse one might stretch a point 71nd fesct':IoJu cur guilt as guilt

by association - association with h:?.tons at all.

I Uego.n by saying that touou is 1:n:son here, 7f we 1,-aht to

learn it, for tie future: uut 5 LS 5 LoSOn OI Ltio 11,1L.

4 4110 politician ur p,T.rty wants to listen tG, let alonu to learn. IL:

00001 7s to ocaoe to ehge 7n ,,umbldg which all;I:ost oilnav. happl

and self-rigntuosly ended in for generotio11: cif. limit s.yaelf

to one :eneratinn, beause tre huuuF] of tn.e Legue of r2tions ond

wrs hum,

humbug' of a distinctly uifferent order:; Bperlerice sn0u2 that

ta-re is ('Jni-: cne s.:t of eincumstances in which n-is kono' oi•

lE st :into practic ls rio ttu ciiscorifr)rt ;m6 Inec)nv,:n-

c:, of continuing the ril_bw;i; is uotenti_y ano i1. excess ul

tOusoy ctiscomfort of evoryuody eting orhs,. rine icyel

fat which that 0ancQ; of hiscomfort shifts ,41i1

to ,ut it anothr 1,i'ly, ttl strchtfl of t.h,l,inrtia t.:D

,fili bo rducd to tho xtcot tnat '.4_1s31dontvoius, voics cry-

iag Haon't t):J daft' and "don't tali< nonsons aa.v piriousiy '01

audil).1. Such at Iost is tn,,,nopo anu assuTiL!DLlon of thos,_,

Joliticians - tilt- r2.r always a l'il of ti-, :-=ui- 1 - 0,.) ar: 50

situatU or sr.. conditiond tht th,..:y c,an ra7s t:Lui- voic_s whil

still ,-_,,f,h-' sii,::nc,,

Peper re-ed by the Ht Hen.,j.Enech Powell, lit?, on 28 January 19:3to the Oxford University Literary 2ociety.

Tn the library of Christian books which we know as the Uew

Testament the first four on the shelf purbort to be narratives of

the life, or bart of the llfe, of Jesus Those four bresumably all

originally cirfulated as separate works; but in the collection

they stand in an invariable order. All four have material in

common?, but the fourth is distinctive from the other three,which

are called the synoptic gospels because of the idea that, having

so much in common, they could be "viewed togetherVsynopticallyV

in such a way as to create a composite narrative_

There is no internal or reliable external evidence of the names

or identities of the authors of those first three iooks. This is

particularly regrettable in the se of the Puthor of -Peek

whose literary, critical and editorial achievement I want tc cele-brate this evening; for he was a person of groat importance in his

own right - second, if second at all, only to the author of the

principal Pauline letters as 7 f:-)U,-H,7rof Christian belief.It js

for pure convenience that T chil refer to him by the treditioned

name of Luke.

In order to ppbreciate the magnitude of Luke's achievement,

it is necessary to endeavour to reead -Reek ne.1 as shall argue

thet Thtlk,='reed it - with no col'ateral mats sill tO ubon. If

we do so, we find that it is not inthe creHnary sense a book at all

but a clmbilation or jumble of matoriial whose juxtaposition is

as bewildering as its content. Out of this, Luke &'.ethimself

create, and largely succeeded in creating, an intelligible narrative

which wo-e-id stand up to Thtellectual and rerhabs sceptical reading.

The breef of the rather statemert T 171:77E: j-W-St

' there in front of ue in Tn endeevourins: to read ane under-

stand" :"Tatthew - the traditional name for look no.1, Wlich aHeut

for convenience even more reluctantly than the name of Luke for

Ecak no.3 because of its misleading imedijeatien that look no.l had

an "author" at all in the seme sense as Boek ne - thore "s

scarcely any difficulty which we erceunter, on small or a 7,ergeseale, that does not fill,f ite cohhitfon, if net its remedy, in

1r,tn - ne.,cut

hand such as he one mcdueintence wd shall m-ke. -Ps*e

ncyer be turned into Matthew by any numen being er by wry ceren.te-

nation of textual occurronces.

--e make of the art ef Luke fe ieeelf -Lehrt ef ps I eif the ee

,

-

cild Griesbach hypothesis that eatthew was Lulie‘s source and, in4-1,enatural sense of "source", his jar source.

As such, and perhaps for other rr,ce,r-cnLu o had great respectreverence for the book, despite the irtensitv and beldness of

the critical and literary treatment to ohich he found himself underthe necessity of subjecting it, How far hc really understoed whatLiatthew is, is another question. :le, ppen to lievocen be.plausibly arued, tyo hundred years of el evolutien bad ,e.ereto create the document which not be surptising if some of

lay on the alsk before Luke, the underlying elements were

it younot fully

comprehended by him in their original historical and theologicalcontexts. He did the best he coud, and a wonderful best it was;but there is no qirilarity betweer his work ard the Pevereign free-dom with whicTh the author of Book no.4 used the basic material fromBoois :Tosl- to 3, while re-makirg the theolo7y.

A full demonstration of the literar, critical and imaginativebowers which Luke brought to bear 11,-Do-rL his task would involvecomparative study of almoot every sentence in Elatthew alongsideits treatment by Luke. In the compass of this paper I can do no17nr=' tIrs.n illustrote the subject cy ex9mples, first or a 1 rge andthen on a small scale, of Luke's reebonse to the challenge pre-sented to him by his source. ky large-scals enarsblss will behis handliny of the coim7ercenent ' the conclusion oT tbe whole book.

y -.7h,„VJvr started tthew without orccncotjonscan have failed to be disapp,cinted and bewi72 red.eourters three distinct problems, ia rising order of difficulty.The least of t*em is the stylistically and literarily i',possible

with a goneTiloEy, ,Thich incientally etarts -riot2avid but fram I',.brahez co=non T.)aront 7.11 1Sr

This sasily salt- rrin :777 Tfllater loint an:d turni 7_,ZESide - rds fremfssus, aftor the reador has be-- p,mrsen

"i-o-rficanco. conter F_braham, Luketook._ ths line back

bat the reader next encounters in-crablersatic. 7he child, irlentifi, ri

a-CrS'_ i2 inhertcricus ie intel=ibe Lrtb -779. hiS

ely looreits fat-bn

:oryill, •:ClalQ

-7-

laughed at him, with his travelling star whirh goes down the

chimney of an individual house, but would have said to himz

"Even if the movements of visitors who set all Jerusalom in an

uproar escaped further observation, 7-Terod's massacre of tho

children - unnecessary anyway, because the coincidence of star

and birth would scarcely have fitted more th:hn ore B.Pthlehem baby-

is simply not history. We know a great deal about Herod's reign,

and this just did not happen. As for your flight to Egypt and

return to 1.Tazareth instead of Bethlehem, either it was safe to

come back to Palestine at all aftsr Herod's death or else it

would have been as dangerous to go to Galilee as to Bethlehem,

because both were ir the tetr4Chy of a sOr nf Herod".

The reader however has made his way to Erazhreth threwfn all

‘.hee difficulties only to encounter a still severor shock, Tn those days", continues the narrative immediately after the

settlement at 1Tazoreth, "oppearsd Johr the -Paptist," a characterwhose origin and identity are left unexplained but who, after a

brief summary of his doctrine, is said to have recognised Jesus

and reluctantly baptized him in the Tower Jordan. "Flow celile?

and what wrns the point of the whole exercise?" Luke's reaaers

would have asked; "surely Jesus must heve gro,zn up in the mean-

time? so what do you mean by 'in those days', which leaves us

back in dbout 2 or 7 R..C."

Tt wds in pondering above all the -IPTIPssiy t exblain whoJohn was and why he knew Jesus, that L7..117,-- conceived thP most

daring of all his literary operations, one which would remove

every difficulty without exception: Jelc and Jesus nad to hove

known one another already, and th, respect-77P parts they wero to

play in the drama of salvation had to hove been revealed

authoritatively L,:hed yet privately to the porents of both. Luke

ti-Prefero 7tde them not only close cont=peraries but relatives

or ehe 70ther ' s-He. 7hy on tho reethers', nht the thers' s-7de?

7dre draw near at t---7s pe-7rt te the bapby otroke of E. •hius

Tuke's part wh-ich was to be of boundless importance for 17hr-isterde,h

artistically, theolo.,;;:icolly and socially. The only mTeterials he

had for orer.tjnr n-fs new struoture were the ei u bald verses of

where an angel in a dream tells the fatner Joseph tht- hisrife ieary has supernaturally conceived Tsrael's shviour. Cut of

this he nad to reanufacture two annunciatic s t two parents --.1hut

two cenceptions. :or symmetry, if far no other reason, it had to

be ene father ond one mother whe'tet There was 01o

-4-

room for hesitation which way round it had to be. It was tho

supernatural conception that would reduire the annunciation to the

mother. The other annunciation therefore would be to the father,

as orlce upon a time to Keraham, arother father of a late-born

child. It only then required the prompting of the angel - and

they are actual angels, not dream angels in Luke - for Diary to

go from Galilee to visit Tlizabeth in Judaea, and for the whole

story to be shared between the two families - -rd

to explain why Jesus in Galilee and John in Judaea would later

on know all about one another.

The magnitude of Zuke's achievement can be assessed by reading

the first chapter of Luke immr-diately after ile.tthew's eight

verses - and also by comparing the vast pictorial inspiration

Luke's rarrativP with the regligib+e echo that vIrs evoked by

1:Latthew's.

Thr-re however remained tbL jag.ged chrontlogical gap to be

filled and the impossible irr.nzitin straight frflifl the nativity

in Eethlehem to the baptism at Jordh.n to be replaced. The gap

was filled by what was rIlissing - a story of a childhood,

si:2ple yet pre=nitory, and an elaborate socular dating of the

baptisE, which fi ed it ln 28-29 ThP probein of tho

inexplicable notoriety and Tcublicity of birth naTrative in

hatthLwhadived by replacng it wth a coinp 7 ot=,ly dlfdorent

one, for which, as for the childhood incidents, 1;:ry horself

1 4-CQUld be the solo but saff-r:cio-nt SCU-0,-"C;Mut hi? 7other Kep,,

:all these sayings in her huort°.

Ths achieverlent of Luke at tho co=ence-n.ent of the work was

roatched by an ocually bold =d brognant cop-ipositisn at tho

70bdy whos-- peroptions wore blunt.A by -f'=iliarity with

7,11ke, CCiala reach the conclusion f atthew 7:7-1t,eut a aenso Df

deer-' lsalr)pc'rntseent, not to so oh ok.Twc wtr= war shown byan angel that the torib is einpty and then 17.1,:etJesus: bers-,a,

who ?nds by theri a rie??agr- t- izoirTho t0 -meet hir-. in

They dc so, s=e th= ti7L, pTanounces

eTie or two, perfunctory E=entences, aw tht, isaTh - all, excopt

for a bit ?f by-play otout th,e priosts bribing Pilate'st ;guards

to plead guilty t? havinF,-: slept at their post. The ..j7reates,

:-.J.77-=tin the history of the 'Tr71±,as-cass -,7itLmt

nt.tice tr cr_L-

seuence,

-5—

Three (not two) women flrd the temb empty and infermed by

tro anEels(not sne that Jesus hos risen as fereshadoueed; but .,he,„

ere d-igbel'eved bv the disciples when thoy give them the news.

Everything else in T:atthew is then scrapped — the corrupt soldiers,

the personal appearance which renders the angelic announcement super—

fluous, and the rendesvous in Galilee — and the reader, like the

discipl, is left in susperse and disbelief. The Lrouxi;1, thus

cleared is occupied by two marvollous scenes, eaually imaginativo

and profound. The first is the jeurney to Emmaus and th0 recognitiooi

of Jesus by the two travellers Hir the breaking of the bread".

Their return to Jerusalem with the news is the introduction to the

second scene, where Jesus materialises in the middle of the dis2'r1es

ond ev'nces his corporeality by eating a piece of cooked fish,

Both scenes include the exposition by Jesus of the rer-essity for

everything that has haptesenod. Both take up the so—ca.-lied In'st

Supper and enable the reader to interpret the resurrection in terms

of it. The proof being thus provided, the bock can bo simply and

satisfactorily concluded: Jesus leads the discipls outside the

city and in the act of blessinE them js taken up into heaven.

Onoe agan, the artistjc pro,geny of Tukets narrativo is bract'—

cal evidence of its pictorial vividness: th• writet creation is

"tself cr_at've.Bighteen or ninoteor centurs heve quarrid tris

material and found artistic and sp.iritual inspiration in it. It wrec,

so te zs-1:, Luke whs wrete "AbiZe with me' and who sot it to music.

Like the .Lnnunciatien, the ..iscensieri, and all tte de=

th• 6-,gs, are Luke'q. It was hio reEpeose t: the d[erand that was

placed uhhon hin by the r'jef-70-1-ercy, the crudily, the very absurditiesof the only material he hed te -mork 7:"th.

Having ehibited Tuite's eerftrm aPee er, the ,c;erard 0007e,

he met the supreme challenges cf th, incarnatiee end th.. resurrectiohl,

I 7.,=tte offer specime, just as impressive in their 'voy, upnn e

smaller scale.

ny fe.miliLr-ity 7i-re-vents us filedihg incrhilele the merretive'Dv — e,c• elaiilee.

erd the rest "s as unrietretdi elk ulliexpirehird es the r(e—

=r:-7:"I will Icelce you catch menh. Tuke preceedied teor vide what h,

wes -esin,-7. He did so by the Thviee, w;eich h_ used el-Isewher

of e m"racre, a marvel-h. uely 17.*!7.fl.C1 — tl7W

drauht.

ti-LE sup)erneturel eat- rty te}74, i -, Lon c.e-Ivillicineey

-esta-clisher]. Th, critical -cerceictiep_ -Jie the ore

the 1—ss because Luke --ot, ,anH did thiok

— —

that he was,remedying the defici nciee of his source by restoring anearlier form ef it which acceuntsd for tLca I happen to believe, but T nientien it nly in pcssing, because 1 do not want to distractattention from the purely literary bherome17"of Luke's achievemont,that the reason why Simon and the rest oboyed the call was that theyknew Jesus already, that he whs the risen Jesus who haa returned(ashe said he weuld) to Galilee. 7ven if -11:Lk,' suspected this or torl,'w

t.icish or tbY—it,his business was rot higher criticism or source critual criticism thos gh h did som m feties go in or a beit of that —but to render intelligible and acceptable the only authority he knewfor the news he had to deliver.

mentioned just new that this was net the only place where Lukefound that a miracle woulf sclve a problem neatly. He applied thedevice to remove a difficulty encountered ot the arrest in the gar—den, when, in :int-thew, - fisciple cuts off -flcs of the e-ers of thehighpriest's servant and Jr-sus simply remarks:"Put up your swordthose that toke the sword will be destroyed by the awerd". "Thgt igall vero well", thouht Tuke!"but there was the fellow bleeding pr:—fusely, Inc yet nothing happ,eng. Thes:aatter could net have beenleft there". 2o he proce dod to fill the gap which he perceived."Jesus said,'Ho more ef ard he touchod the and hoales it."mh(_ was thua rationally rounded off; ',Dut at the sara tine the whhle tone —as changed and softened, with e-r..at psycholegicTaltact. The cuestionable reasoning,"dor, t fight, bcause these who doend up the loso-rs" has disappearod, and so has the unfolfillef endurverifi,-bl,,boast of beinig able to sal=en a dczsh legions of hnels.

This psycheloogical touch is evident in th• s.. lutihn which Lukefeunato certain of the logical and literary ehoblems of tho Trg-ns—f-nratior where, on Jesus ansfig'ured, 'hattiew relatoes that "Eosog and 71ijah were seon by the disciprios conversing with hih.'H-w the rHgdsr wul bo t..]:1-LL-":7:/.-.. 77 ehinire, did the disciples that tb-- tw• interdocutors were 't:7:s and 711jah, and. oh what didthey b se thoir rpporentiv confident identification? Thsreupon, —ever, Petr ih with the extrgordirary prpesa-1!"-Tord, it is .7:7) for us to be here. Lot ne, if :hes pihese, make three boths,ene for you, for h for Tlijah".

Iuko set about this• as follows H. first narrated the tr:ha:—as a fact! Jesug went j'.-) into the n-unthin th pray, _7-1as

he 7.';=-5L; transforned"ane tv men tom7od wito him, we.ss a haiiah, and foretold the ito ahab as •ostinee

m,e t in Je•rlsalen." 7-.Uk then t

7 1.4

panians had been overcosee by sleep.; but when they woke, they saw the

two roen standinF with Jesus. n:lt whsn the twe were lee,ving his

sid.e,then Peter burst out with the stuse sug•gestien as in Lratthew.

On this, however, Luke c=erts, "Thus saii Feter, nst khowihg what

he was saviLL" the rrina loccl7iLs intelligible, tleougn

still extraordinary. The =isciples have been in a trance ars.' on

e. Ler:ging f= it are sure that they hb_ve seen Ises and Eliah,

but are still sr reuch under thu influence of -it tht. Pter talks

rionsense:".Obn't ge away, says he; we will build huts here far all ef

you'. It has becesis a .d.ral -1, witheut bsins directly se called. IT

in a dream we de say and try te .da absurd thlngs. Tn a ,cir7.17

recognise specific rersans net because the 4.r features are ti

us but because we jaast kn've wb they are, or ften eriewTz-os 1)7

arsig says,""I drearet rrly father es here and then, all sf a sudden,

Aunt Agnes came in ,.." Ue-ither faSher ner Aunt .Lusn-s has toni sn

anr.7 rec.gnisec:i as in ,--aking life: they were known rresencen, and Mat

W.n.2al there was about- il. :Tote tue lenve the

that Luke has rrovided infayreatt_r ea the 7E::.tj_ct1::altter of the

versatiin, thus giving anar'!tln(es a dArtHc rurrose, tgat of

2r phetic anneuncsrlent.It haprens thrt all thb•e d=f-icultibs could have been resolve=

a dgiffer,cet an. bin. choasa sf t7;r•.: 7,etturs will corvert Ts)-

er's outburst inta sehsen it is r-ight for u_s, ify)u--,- 1- - - 1 cairns)" - tho no1-1 c. crf .1-Jarkin

the spat where a supernatural visitati a has ccurreai. n.

havu been pfls wit very little alturation, t) havb Iseste thots the end of the beek se as te :orovide tho asrensibh

as we hav.:_. seoh, was ruinfully obissing ft is far

fren. th.bt esisTl actually is nn aseshsisn, or

rather a caabinfa.ti)n.af ascehsi nos, -e-dob I'Lvu been hr yo.ward -irt- the -',)re -crucf-i- i.Haer col-text. 7.-lio-lar17 L c:u*

Tsst Surper, thereby ress-ibly rests.ring it t)

fb= of 7 irst ti. ,ds bar-, hnning t- cr.bats.the episa'.'..e e= the urney and the 4gnn

That was ne.., orecar , ?or--:77 his aateral, 7P."1=dua

a-ad 2reat-ivelv t-k-,euh fem.: -prscood,

o-no,orn,, - d to- ot the be k ..ghich he hre.cbg'grTed. Tts auth"rlty forbae h-i:r to le that.His wae

what h). h d„ t !mprly ..vf.litTy

s'tructurE, 771-L. inc

7-,1-Her

- 8 -

p(=are- so. He wTrkr with a .-ood conscionce because, given the mtn-

enticity of his ource, whatever its deficiencirs, noting that culd

be deduced - rrojected fror. it.:Jold be .otlier than authentic too. He

vit;u1 net reLelly have understood our question, if we had asked hila,

about the Inlra^uleus drau7ht or the hoalln of the ear or the supper

at Erereaus,"'orhat was ycur evtlenco fer that?", but he reight have en-deavoured tc. answ,-r us with another Questim"Can't you see that lt

rousthave been like tht?"Failure to understand the nature ef this st-r-t of lttrary creation

has been the couse of endless pertlexity =rf error in the textual

critioIsre of th- 1Tew mestmanet. Scholars and d-IvInes vthcfund an

eT)isode in Luke that 77asnot in loatthiew started fror--the ssu=ti•en

that Luke c 1:1 nr-t have invnted it. The,refor,-, they :rgued,

there F:Just have 1::een another source. Thus a 7Yncle catscradle of;,t_r was elaborated.

But no such hyl) theses are necessary. Of course, if we enquire what

was the history and -'17enesis of the text ef IJatthew itself, we enbark

upon c)uite a different and Tperha-;ps inexhaustifie kind 'of investi-gaticr. But frori that text orwardsur _Ariadre thread to us

thrugh the 71a7e is the sinnle Tpronosition2 no ore, havin what iE

in Luke, •ctld have turned it mt wh7t is in 15f-ntthew - on coulr

have olkitted the J7,i'-'7.ci:js end tho story of Erquaus- leut s n whn

hf-d 7,Tatthew a il Iv v tuJi-n.. it inte what iv ire Tuke. That so one

was Luke hi=elf, arZ his achievent a rerlarkable yrt a iossible

anl a mat-I:nal co

Helarew hf-s a w:ord for the. Iprocess,

•farn:ntary, nt x acts, -

c.un,ely expresses.The wer,f is ha;t7a'.ah, we hav:t in the first

ks ef th,J: i_stf-.aent Is Theut-1:::nt an

hai7aahs ur7n it, at • nly 7:tic?. ft -.s b.een rtssibl

.,tlanc,e within the scnpe of this aer, But i: k:72 ,..cvwas itself alrea,]y el, el--7 in titn., I in ovoluti-n. ttiany

hun:hs lIi-thsh lq cuestin which e

laay atle sfitist'rect --•-• 17,7;.]:t tht lt

'Tir-,7“-)2 u'AUOUIanoj pnoqu snTqJnp opuT

pPAGT, punp;o:P,.: T'OUTST

pnq ?uTunicaPA- p; op ;:u.p o pup 'nal: P„TH2 OS,

uppul PPx^Tuo Pcj, 41'70220 3T0C0T

ouoTpun—.42 aT-up op u:!r CT cTup u-lpm

-pTaon upT.1 :300T2T.2

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C.nofrps- LOTC1 7-T„;"i,27JT PiTum

T;OTTTTI:1pu-oTqTL:an TupTppTp.32ps TO sPanTj ,up4

-TT1 '11TTOpps pu.no p 000 TT,Tq0p punod ":fT.I.TpTa 72 sp,PJF

pnaopp '.->qAT2p7rJl0u ino Jo uoTp'eappuP,q

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q,Tpp0nu0 ano Jo sspuATpTpooun Jo suoTql2Tpunu,-_)p LiaTm

op 'I: - rps cT pTaon. 7.,qp ;o pppa p,up u-egp

piJom 'Thq TO 0C T_T'4 Pp Aap000,71"),OC• zwiTTT73 nJ': 77)P, UOTTTTO700TA.

L710 :1720 p-TT .a 00j UT >IUTG c!..eu:p 0,31psnp

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pcL '1:120T0.7 md sL•L 4.73

2ocTICTH LuELITucl-r 91-.ST30qTT0,71:

pga TT?: uoTaTpcss. ,spupF'7T aopoN 0110 JO 20000D °2's

pup op ":4'1- 'TTpmoj T_;00U7 °p uop poOUT 17,(2

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7.1.7777,!7,74'f Y1)77..77-71'1-H' .T.0

,T)Tua sT010Thq

•

-2-

without tt-, pundits predicting a so•,Ly :Jut no

tuo hilB 0tfl, Even my own confich:nt assur7i.ncs tntt tn,. surplus

w2..s going to continu‘.... havc: neon oycrtoppo(i Tht only mr_l_s

ooL ongri;.:r still. ShP2J T tli you why? T73:lus it thr,..:atns to

cuus tnom to stop fl,nj think 000 to j,.:ttison tfto

idos on whicn thy h7;vc,on living. Th-Jr is no grc:7.tor injury or

insult you con off,r thrn to confront hin with tu. 1-1cossity

of thining,

'Potr Shoro anu th,. L-abour Par y; for just no iny n:Tivo

a policy 0 policy for wnat is cllr. 1-co7,Jry; n_nd it incluctos

20'A. d,:vIution of th(-2 pound storiing. To -ricr,_:aso

Alluomanci for british goocis and to poost 0r1tish as though

w,r, not rouy suffocting in our hormous surpius of ,-_;xportsOOuO

l000rts os thougn tno pound h:u., not 7.11A-..udy 0Gr ooun o f u u to

th ',-:,.horo lino' witnout rhyt.)oy, Ip- .st of , 1 t1-1_, LT,bour' Party,

to do., mytning anout it. 'f,or=ily it Ousts mon,y, huz sums

of morly„ to ciprss th, *)1-,' your Or -

your own mo-ny, but ioo. t fl1 0 its C-Jin 7,CCOP'.1,

?iith,out our r1C.u10C to spTod 10-f00 PLrL,-nDrL's

too so l'rlst toot t culto Lnrct

blnk of 1-.0 dish J-1_10

th... tiadlyinks

piTly wyt,-, to

in th,, LnO,.;-_,:our to

I must, huy,_vr, IS

7.citt„_:r of - t ouf tnt.

t,rritVlng curru,nt flccu.:,unt

;,1=st ,,Ts.,,rytnin5z ti 17, surplus

D.ig,r if 'InT.tonr ,,, us

t pounc:

suryius. frtcr i00str7, thu t_xtili

moot industry TInd I know not wnat othdr incustrids w%nt to sorsudc

tric japandsd to sdll 1.(ss to us 71-id ts coy mord fram us tn,it will

only incrdasd tnd surplus. klmst dvdrypody thinits it right to 'suy

dritiot tnat will only incrdaso tro surplus. Ii sp wh:...t is so

wron2: :-fter all with incrcasing thc surplus instdad of tnc surplus

of £7 billion ydar ict's r.P.vd a surplus Lit billion so £21

I wiii tdIi you 'Anat is wrong witn Tnd countdrpart of

thd currnt surplus, a counterpart iznich sticks fster than or hrotncr,

closdr tn:in a man's siadow, is an cxactly dqua ddficit on capitPl

71ccount thc nugu dutwaru flow of cbit7.1 wnicn wd td send to

thd rc-st of thd wsrld or thp conecrnit...m.t and cdndition of thdir pur-

chasc cf our goods PJ-La sdrvicds. As fast 7.1s cquirc wcalth by

trading pour it dut by ldnding or invssting,

Ldt no 0nc, not cvpn trir Labour 27,krt;, prbsuald 0 sq.y• witn

cunning cast in thdir dyd: "Tv;p'il son rc-imposP

controls on capital movdmcnts and sii:riply io:dvont p plcxcging

stdrling into dtndr currdncids". Th.s .ttcfLpt would O.

self-upfbating. 'No capital dpficit, n) currdnt curplus runs thc

izimutp_hic s , dggin4, oiL. thc curs- o]: th Nipciung

tnosd who try tp chpat: thpnt Orcxdort surplus and totji, industry and dmpli,ynlpnt 7.,:hich it

411Vxo 1.-tu for thd ;pound strlih2,7 it Ill bc s:)t

wnich trly2 currrit ,(2..syunt will tf-1

000.%unt 0 hlno. us C tornuror..no f 'british

ci7prt industrids, tha tn, thp indus-

tribs of o,urpost

oot incedd is oo orb os. py f tr.c moo rt urplus, in

ydt orin[:=7.. n n for rn onl fd-tr

airi which on.,k,:s n its inciu:stri,_L:.

c-:ntrcL and its unoli...:L.v.mnt is a

britain which st-Inds on thd inn. so or t r •r• •unc acah •171c ch--

f dc ndEic cnrind painful in i-,,roportih c it is pr..,]; ,und, nm 0-

111knlcn tho cnflicting tnc pclitical prtio

c vrt. Thc changc wiii nc)t baccplishcd until avc

tnat xpLrt surplus and that surplus of uhus,0 nuaan njy

into tHrms of woaith witn which tho orld providc: us

It is a (-Jnyursian of which ri...—itmJr a f.:11Tnissi()il'u exprts nor

govcrnment committe can lay dc,wn th al n. Only tho pcoplo can

discovor .7.nd work it out for theLisolves in thoir own way anc their

or-1 tiuL. 1-1en it n'7:s takon fikh will LJok oack upon it anu

say, as thcy nave saiu wnen comparabio revolutins nad

uccurrt, a. wculd never navo linagincd or fc)rosoch

Somctimos tno best sorvico a politician can ronu or. is, wneh

hc cannot soo, not tc proton that ho doos

Speech by the Rt. Hon. J. ENOCH POWELL, M.P.to the Annual General Meeting of the Enst TownDivisional Unionist Association, Downpatrickat 8 p.m. SATURDAY, 8th JANUARY, 1983.

In 1983 if this is to be General Election year, Ulster willlast have its fair representation in Parliament. The claim put

.torward by the Ulster Unionist Party in 1974, recognise-f, by theLabour government in 1977 and endorsed by the virtually unanimousvoice of the House of Commons in 1978 has at last become 73art of thelaw of the land. Eight years of patience and persistence, eight yearsof opportunities k;oized and obstacles surmounted, have borne theirfruit. Ulster will have 17 seats in the House of Commons - rather morethan the English quota and equal to the Welsh viota. ,;,:tice hasbeen done, but more than that. By this reform Ulster • .oroclaimeL-!an integral part of the United Kingdom in a wny that nemere worC,scould do; for the Union is the ParliamentRry Union, =.c7 ;re belong toit by virtue of our place in Parliamentdplace now fully, fairly andequally accorded.

The importance of the event can not be overestimaterf_. Duringthe ten long years in which our enemies in the province, in GreatBritain and in the world outside have incessantly strive:1 to wrest ourbirthright from us, this is one decisive victory we Unio:lists have won,We must now make it the means of winning the war itself ,7.11c1 of placingthe Union once and for all beyond cavil or danger. To f_o that, is thebusiness of everyone among us; more, it is the business of all in thisprovince who see their future in the Union.

Of those 17 seats, at least twelve ought to returh unionists toWestminster, and maybe one or two more will also do so. Thoseor maybe 13 or 14, unionists must be real Unionists. I riIl not ;Anc,emy words. That means Ulster Unionists, or, if you lihe, Official 2y-/i((Unionists, men or women/of ours. I will tell you why. If they ar& tocarry the weight and exercise the influence they ought, they willhave to be Members who act together as n single difleiplille_boc:y,formidable by their coherence and their unity. We can :afford no longer

the damage which has been inflicted upon the cause of Ulster and theUnion by persons who, masquerading as unionists, oppose us and loseno opportunity to attack and denigrate us inside Parliament and outside,persons whose purpose is not, as ours is, the maintenance and entrenchmentof the Union, but something very different. The situation of Ulster istoo dangerous today to allow electors who are in favour of the Union toreturn to represent them in Parliament any of that kidney.

I say: the situation of Ulster today is too dangerous. Despiteall the efforts of our Party, the enemies of Ulster and of the Unionsucceeded last year in introducing within our defences a Trojan horse.Prior's Assembly is indeed a replica of that hollow horse by which theGreeks succeeded in capturing Troy. It is made of wood; for it isperfectly useless and inert, and has no motion or life of its own. Itwas given as a gift by deceitful enemies: Prior himself did not scrupleto say that he believed it would strengthen the Union, a statement whichset all the cats laughing from Larne to Londonderry. Its intended

victims have been invited to admire it and to worship it as a gravenimage. Yet all the time it contains in its belly armed men, who at agiven siTnal are to emerge by night and admit the besiegers.

Prior's Assembly has one purpose and one purpose only. Thatpurpose has been acknowledged publicly by the Secretary of State himself -though admittedly with greater candour in Washington than in BelfastIt has been proclaimed unashamedly by Garrett FitzGerald. It is toenable Ulster to be drawn or forced into a tripartite or.North-Southarrangement, which is only possible provided Ulster is represented byseparate institution. An autonomous Ulster, coaxed or coerced by theU.K. into an all-Ireland federation, has been the formula patientlypursued all down the years by the Irish Republic as the hey to what theycall 're-unification'. That was why at the very inception of this presentParliament, Jack Lynch was heard telling all who cared to listen that hewanted some form of devolution in Ulster because it was the first stepto a united Ireland. Ulster of course had autonomy uner the Stormontconstitution; but that was an autonomy which blocked the path to aunited Ireland. Once Stormont hnd gone, the way lay oi)en for autonomyof a different style, autonomy with power-sharing and lat7n-FiTeM71-sh

111dimension of a North-South Council. Having failed with this in 1974,the enemy tried again and again - first by one dodge, then by anotheruntil now there is an Assembly which has no powers anc-I never can havethem except at the price of power-sharing but an Assebly which theNorthern Ireland Office and the Republic intend to make the Ulstercomponent of the embryo of their federnl Ireland. So long as they cankeep the Assembly in existence, however shadowy and unsatisfactory anexistence, they are confident they will get their way in the long run.

When I warned of all this at the time of the Ass=bly elections,I foreshadowed that Prior would be counting on two sets of allies, whoulI called respectively "the running dogs of the Northern Ireland Office"and Protestant Sinn Fein, otherwise known as the D.U.P. It will, I amsure, not have escaped notice how warmly the D.U.P. are co-operatingwith the Alliance and Kilfeider to do Jim Prior's worL: for him. Thatought to cause no surprise. Sinn Fein, whether of the Protestant orthe Republican sort, never has been for the Union anf::, to be fair toIan Paisley, he never has been reluctant to adopt attitues andpolicies inconsistent with, when not destructive of, t:le Union. The

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vision which Sinn Fein has of the future is a different one. It isof the Ireland towards which Prior and FitzGerald are steeringlster under the aegis of the Assembly, an Ireland in which the

guarantee for Ulster and its people will consist not in membership ofan integral union with Great Britain but in the negotiated arrangementsto be evolved through a tripartite institution expressing - if I nmyborrow a phrase from the Thatcher-Haughey communique of 1980 - "thetotality of relationships with these islnnds".

. .The object lesson of the Assembly as it is ke7)t.r1liYeartificially rrom weeK to weeK cloy tne Northern ircinnc Emeltheir allies ought to leave no Unionist in ignorance or innocenceof the destination being prepared for Ulster and of t-newhich Ulster will stand unless its representation is firmly in thehands of this Party, the only Party which has no other faith, noother aim, no other loyalty, than to maintain the Union end strengthenit. From now until the General Election, whether it comes in Juneor in October, nothing else matters for us Unionists th.en to makethat result a certainty, so far as it humanly lies in us.