john promise, p.e. director of environment &...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sustainable North Texas
John Promise, P.E.
Director of Environment & Development
North Central Texas Council of Governments
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Sustainable North Texas
“Building cities that are green, inclusive and sustainable should be the foundation of any local and national climate change agenda.”
Cities and Climate Change: An Urgent Agenda The World Bank
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Sustainable North Texas1950
Region’s development pattern in 1950
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Sustainable North Texas1980
Dallas & Tarrant Co grow - 1980
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Sustainable North Texas2000
Growth spreads - 2000
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Sustainable North Texas
6.5 Million per 2010 Census
More Growth, More Spreading
Under “BAU”
9 Million by
2030
12 Million by 2050
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Sustainable North Texas
• Rail
• HOV/ Managed
• Tollways
• Freeways
• Intelligent
Transportation
Systems
• And more
2007
2030
From Mobility 2030
Even after $71 billion we will have more congestion in 2030
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Sustainable North Texas
We do not meet the
8-hour ozone air quality standard
Area
4%
Non-Road
Engines
36%
Point
10%
On-Road
Vehicles
50%
Few smokestacks Many engines
Engines
Engines
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Sustainable North Texas
WATER
NEEDS IN 2050
2.1 billion
gallons
per day
AVAILABLE
1.25 billion gallons
per day
Lawns are significant water guzzlers
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Sustainable North Texas
Transportation
Air Quality
Water Supply
Environment
Vision North Texas launched in 2005
Energy
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Sustainable North Texas
Private-public-academic partnership
Objectives
Increase awareness about expected growth
Serve as a forum for dialogue among all stakeholders about critical issues
Build support for initiatives that create a successful and sustainable future for North Texas
NCTCOG
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Sustainable North Texas
April 2005
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Sustainable North Texas
NCTCOG 2000-2030 ForecastTable # 7 Model
Table 7 Headline: Emerging New Growth Centers Through
Transit Oriented Development
Challenge: Can your table accommodate growth in a
way that is more successful & sustainable?
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Sustainable North TexasLots of Awareness & Dialogue
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Sustainable North Texas
Connected Centers Return on Investment
Diverse, Distinct Communities Green Region
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Sustainable North Texas
4.3 persons per acre = existing average
density of all urban land
down to 3.1 ppa in 2030 under BAU
4.2 to 5.2 ppa in 2030 under the
different scenarios
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Sustainable North Texas
DISCLAIMER: Each scenario represents a different development concept. Regional household and employment growth are assumed to be the same in each scenario; however, the
location of the growth varies. Development intensity was manually redistributed to best represent each scenario’s regional development pattern. This data was created specifically for
Vision North Texas and has not been evaluated for other uses. Responsibility for the use of this data lies solely with the user.
LowLow-
ModerateModerate
Moderate-
HighHigh
COG 2030 Forecast
Connected Centers
Diverse, Distinct Communities
Return on Investment
Green Region
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Households by Intensity Range (in thousands)
Comparison of Vision North Texas Scenarios
Less low density
More low-moderate
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Sustainable North Texas
All scenarios reduce the average trip length by over 10% from “BAU”
Hours stuck in traffic reduced up to 19%
40% to 150% more households within ¼ mile of
a rail station
Up to $6.9 billion saved in infrastructure costs
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Sustainable North Texas
From 7% to 10% lower CO2 emissions from transportation than “BAU”
Lower building energy consumption with higher intensity of development
Less paving = less impacts
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Sustainable North Texas
More than half of ag land consumed by BAU would not be needed under all other scenarios
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Sustainable North Texas
All scenarios have significantly fewer new households in water supply watersheds than BAU
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Sustainable North Texas
1. Overview
2. People of North Texas
3. A Vision for North Texas
a. Vision Statement
b. Guiding Principles
c. Preferred Future
4. Action Package
a. Priority Action Tools
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Sustainable North Texas
Regional Ecosystem Framework ECONOMY
HousingMobility
Community Character & Form
EducationHEALTH
Climate Resilience
Policy Recommendations For:
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Sustainable North Texas
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Sustainable North Texas
Preferred Future
Reinvest in Inner Tier
Support Local Agriculture in Rural Areas
Be More Efficient in Outer Tier
Enhance Separate Communities
Protect Natural Assets
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Sustainable North Texas
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Sustainable North Texas
Postscript
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Sustainable North Texas2012 CongestionLevels
2035 Future Congestion Levels
Cost of Congestion $4.5 Billion Annually
Cost of Congestion $10.1 Billion Annually