(johnny) rsif fund 2.1
TRANSCRIPT
Buy: Sun Hydraulics Inc. (SNHY)
Sell: Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD)
! Hydraulics are mechanical system used to produce power and motion.
Control Produce Sustain
! Specializes in the manufacturing of custom fluid valves ! Direct sales to distributors and customers ! Has the most range and depth of fluid valves of any
manufacturer
Directs and regulates flow of fluid within a hydraulic system
Screw-in cartridge valves
Manifolds/Integrated solutions
Functions like a electronic switch board
Electronics
Digital controllers use to digitally regulate valves
INDUSTRY SIZE
! The Global Power fluid industry is $20 Billion
! Valves grows at 2x industry rates ! Cartridge valves grows at 4x GDP
• Cartridges valves are replacing traditional hydraulic valves: ! Flexibility ! Durable ! Cost effective
Industry Valves Cartridges
100%
0.46%
Sales % VS. Peers
Other Sun
30%
60%
10%
Industrial Mobile Other
Industrial: 30% • Machine
Tools • Automation • Testing • Packaging
Mobile: 60% • Aerial • Construction • Mining • Energy
Other: 10% • Wind • Animation • Solar • Stage
Shows $4B
$20B
$1.5B
$205 Mil
MARKETS SERVED
49% 30%
21%
Global Sales break down
Americas
Europe, Africa, Middle East
Asia/Pacific Region
Sales breakdown • Total sales (2013) = 205 Mil
! Americas = 100 Mil ! Europe = 62 Mil ! Asia/Pacific = 43 Mil
Regional EBITDA breakdown • EBITDA (2013) = 63 Mil
" The United States = 26 Mil " Germany = 6.2 Mil " Scandinavia = 4.1 mil " Korea, South = 6 Mil " China = 3.8 Mil
# Grade: A (9)
• Global and domestic trends are favorable across all markets # PMI shows confidence
in all markets
! Conservative capital allocation • Uses debt only when necessary: D/E =0 • Has paid dividends since public and been profitable
since 1972 ! Strategic acquisition
• Acquired White Oak and integrated it into High Country Tek, Inc. to add digital capability to control cartridge valves ! The only known company to offer digitally controlled valves
! “Horizontal” style of management and culture • Lean process focused organization ! Shortest Inventory on Hand 39.30 VS 92.73 days among peers ! Sun’s COSG/Sales ratio: 60% VS 75% average amongst peers ! Quality distributor and supplier relationships
! MANY ORIGINAL DISTRIBUTORS FROM 1980S ARE STILL WITH SUN TODAY
! LIVE INVENTORY UPDATES WITH SUPPLIERS TO BALANCE DEMAND # Grade: A (9)
! Market Capitalization 1.1B ! Cash & Equivalents: 93.6 Mil ! Key Metrics
" P/E: 28.27 " ROA: 19.5% " ROC: 21.9% " ROE: 21.9% " ROIC: 20.62% " D/E: 0 " Price/Book: 5.6
! Growth: 12% per annum for the next 5 years
! Revenue • Industrials: 30% • Mobile: 60%
! Profitability • Operating Margins: X>20%
COSG/Sales: 60% VS 75% (Peers)
• Inventory turnover: 9.26 VS 4.76 (Peers)
# Grade: A (9.5)
Balance sheet
Growth rate:
8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
P/E = 24 $51.49 $56.43 $61.75 $67.47 $73.60
Upside 27.19% 39.41% 52.55% 66.67% 81.81%
Expectations and current records ! Price = $40.48 ! Sun is projected to grow at 12% for the next 5 year per annum ! Current P/E = 28 Conservative assumptions ! Sun grows at 10% for the next 5 year per annum ! P/E = 24 (Avg = 27; Median = 24) ! Price = $56.43 ! Upside = 39.41% ! EPS = $2.35, Return on EPS = 61% ((2.35-1.46)/1.46)
# Grade: A (9)
! Industry standard on fluid valves • Sun’s niche market advantage will diminish
! Shareholder control • Brown Capital Management owns 15% • The Koski family owns 10%
! Natural disaster • Majority of Sun’s operation is in Sarasota, FL
! Acquisition • Sun is a small player in the Power fluid industry: ! EV = 1.1Bllion VS. 18.7Billion Parker-Hannifin Corporation
(PH)
! Business: A (9) • Favorable economic conditions • Offers the broadest and most in depth products in the fluid-power
valve industry • Digital control system has high potential in mobile applications
! Management: A (9.5) • Conservative capital allocation • Horizontal style of management
" Continuous process improvement ! Balance Sheet: A(9)
• Strong balance sheet: no debt and plenty of cash • Strong metrics: P/E = 28, ROE = 21.9%, ROA = 19.5%, ROIC = 20.6%
! Price: A(9) • Stock is on the pricy side, but Sun is a quality company • Upside/Margin of safety is 39.41% at conservative estimates of 10%
per annum
! Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
! Supplier of Chemical for industrial applications ! Sells directly to large customers directly on-site
with APD’s own facility " Large capital requirement
! Sells to customers through either customer picks or direct delivery
40%
31%
26%
3%
Revenue by product segment
Merchant Gases
Tonnage Gases
Electronics and Perf. Materials Equipment & Energy
46%
3%
27%
24%
Reveunes by region
US & Canada
Latin America
Europe
Asia
24%
28% 12%
36%
Market Share by revenue
APD
PX
ARG
LNAGF
70% of the world market
! Business segments • Merchant gases (40%) " Atmospheric gases: oxygen, nitrogen, and argon " Used in wide variety of industrial applications
• Tonnage gases (31%) " Provides hydrogen, carbon monoxide, nitrogen, oxygen,
and syngas for energy production and refining • Electronics and Performance Materials (26%) " Applications technology to provide integrated solutions
• Equipment and Energy (3%) " Cryogenic equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon
recovery and purification, natural gas liquefaction, helium distribution, and variety of services
! Business: A (9.5) • Oligarchy type of market • Recession resilient • Profit margin could be greater if facilities are regionally
concentrated ! Balance Sheet: A (9)
• Okay use of debt: ! Current debt = 3227.6 Mil VS. Cash & Equivalents = 450 Mil ! Current ratio = 1.1; Quick ratio = 0.6; Interest coverage = 10.52
• A/R Turnover = 6.55 VS 8.07 (peers) ! Management: B+ (85%)
• Management shake up - Pershing Square ! Corporate restructuring; cost cutting
• Repurchase of 5.7 million shares at $416 million • APD is currently under 33 environmental regulatory Settlements
Expectations and current records ! Price = $118.47 ! APD is projected to grow at 9% for the next 5 year per annum ! P/E = 21 Conservative assumptions ! APD grows at 8% for the next 5 year per annum ! P/E = 16 (Both the mean and average = 17) ! Price = $135.88 ! Upside = 14.70% ! EPS = $8.49, Return on EPS = 47% ((8.49-5.78)/5.78)
# Grade: A (90%)
Growth rate: 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00%
P/E = 16 $129.71 $135.88 $142.29 $148.94 $155.83 upside 9.49% 14.70% 20.11% 25.72% 31.54%
Sun Hydraulics (SNHY) Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
1. Niche market in the fluid-‐power
valve industry Defensible moat
2. Strong balance sheet with no debt Balanced balance sheet
3. Stable management with a clear profit driven focus
Current management changes
4. Has margin of safety with conservaVve esVmates
Has margin of safety with conservaVve esVmates
5. PotenVal moat: Digitally controlled
fluid valves In constant threat of regulations and
litigation
SNHY APD
Business A (9) A(9.5)
Management A (9) B (8.5)
Balance sheet A (9.5) A (9)
Price A (9) A (9)
Total A (9.1) A (9)
Buy Sell
SNHY APD
! Key Metrics • Market Cap = 1.1B • Pretax Margin = 27.9% • ROA = 19.5% • ROE = 21.9% • ROC = 21.9% • ROIC = 20.62% • D/E = 0 • R&D/Sales = 0 • Retention ratio = 68.9% • 5 Yr. CAGR – EPS% = 61%
! Key Metrics • Market Cap = 35B • Pretax Margin = 13.3% • ROA = 5.7% • ROE = 14.5% • ROC = 8.5% • ROIC = 9.63% • D/E = 89% • R&D/Sales = 1.3% • Retention ratio = 42.2% • 5 Yr. CAGR – EPS% = 47%
Bottom line: Sun still has much room to grow and Sun grows on pure equity
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
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4.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% C
han
ge
Years
GDP % Change: Americas
United States Canada Mexico
-2 -1.5
-1 -0.5
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3 3.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% C
han
ge
Years
GDP % Change: Europe/ Africa/ME
Germany Finland Norway
Sweden United Kingdom
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% C
han
ge
Years
GDP % Change: Asia/Pacific
Australia France Japan Korea China
In summary: • Global and domestic business
trends are favorable for growth • Sun’s customers are expected
to experience favorable growth
• Sun grows well with the economy: X>20% EBTIDA YoY margin
Name Mkt Cap (USD) P/E D/E ROIC
Gross Profit (millions) EV/EBITDA Revenue COSG
COSG/Sales
Average 3.75B 22.296859 41.10129175 14.383107 182395001.6 12.487924 594494411.9 444.61M 75%
SUN HYDRAULICS CORP 1.06B 27.657536 0 20.615738 19442000 15.590652 49050000 29.61M 60%
PARKER HANNIFIN CORP 17.77B 16.616457 43.254799 12.872805 686035008 11.446257 3106006016 2.42B 78%
DANFOSS POWER SOLUTIONS INC 0 25.663996 29.02021 121923000 6.973162 413007008 291.08M 70%
CIRCOR INTERNATIONAL INC 1.25B 25.283865 10.408755 12.590307 67507000 13.208073 214035008 146.53M 68%
SPX CORP 4.28B 20.698988 77.145485 397600000 11.815258 1319000064 921.4M 70%
FLOWSERVE CORP 10.34B 21.810791 63.943508 17.572884 470472000 13.256067 1389440000 918.97M 66%
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS INC-A 1.44B 38.442566 186.668732 8.939021 67100000 12.066719 257400000 190.3M 74%
RTI INTERNATIONAL METALS INC 831.61M 24.253677 55.596184 5.36216 45684000 9.509752 200011008 154.33M 77%
GORMAN-RUPP CO 782.60M 24.842344 3.407284 21465000 15.40765 91607000 70.14M 77%
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC CO INC 1.89B 23.048388 31.410852 12.124647 76011000 14.064094 229651008 153.64M 67%
ITT CORP 3.86B 6.886014 0 208600000 11.374283 645500032 436.9M 68%
GRAHAM CORP 321.53M 26.82353 0.145507 6090000 15.456705 23385000 17.3M 74%
INGERSOLL-RAND INDIA LTD 232.12M 17.974518 0 4.061966 14.372974 106905423.1 0%
CRANE CO 4.02B 16.409613 72.035522 15.035235 226851008 11.242914 681449024 454.6M 67%
GRACO INC 4.37B 21.407738 65.885414 20.188869 147199008 14.895597 271923008 124.72M 46%
GARDNER DENVER INC #NAME? 22.05463 14.213444 173946000 9.126627 513540992 339.6M 66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
COSG/Sales
COSG/Sales
Avg. = 75%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008
Per
cen
tage
(%)
Years
YoY growth
EBITDA
Profit Margin
EPS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average
EBITDA 13.81% 3.70% 101.01% 39.56% 24.68% 29.37% 8.75% 19.98%
Profit Margin 88.43% 11.58% 169.57% 32.40% 3.94% 15.97% 9.17% 26.92%
EPS 86.67% 17.86% 245.45% 55.26% 26.27% 35.91% 14.81% 39.46%
*Data excludes yr. 2004
! Current ratio: 9.2 ! D/E: 0 ! EV/EBITDA: 16 ! Gross Margin 23.20% ! ROA: 19.5% ! ROC: 21.9% ! ROE: 21.9% ! ROI: 19.3 ! ROIC: 20.62% ! Quick ratio: 8.2 ! Oper Margin: 23.2%
! P/B: 5.6 ! P/E : 28 ! P/FCF: 54.77 ! P/S: 5.18 ! PEG: 2.32
8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
14 $30.03 $32.92 $36.02 $39.36 $42.93 16 $34.32 $37.62 $41.17 $44.98 $49.06 18 $38.61 $42.32 $46.31 $50.60 $55.20 20 $42.90 $47.03 $51.46 $56.22 $61.33 22 $47.19 $51.73 $56.61 $61.84 $67.46 23 $49.34 $54.08 $59.18 $64.66 $70.53 24 $51.49 $56.43 $61.75 $67.47 $73.60 28 $60.07 $65.84 $72.04 $78.71 $85.86 27 $57.92 $63.49 $69.47 $75.90 $82.80 31 $66.50 $72.89 $79.76 $87.14 $95.06
8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
14 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 16 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 18 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 20 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 22 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 23 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 24 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 28 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 27 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07 31 $2.15 $2.35 $2.57 $2.81 $3.07
8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
14 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 16 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 18 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 20 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 22 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 23 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 24 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 28 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 27 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03% 31 46.93% 61.05% 76.23% 92.54% 110.03%
! Current ratio: 1.10 ! Gross Margin 26.80% ! D/E: 0.85 ! EV/EBITDA: 12.4 ! Oper Margin: 15.6% ! P/B: 3.45 ! P/C: 64.69 ! P/E : 21.3 ! PEG: 2.71 ! P/S: 2.47
! ROA: 5.7% ! ROC 8.6% ! ROE: 14.8% ! ROI: 7.6 ! Quick ratio: 0.8
7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00%
14 $113.49 $118.90 $124.51 $130.32 $136.35 15 $121.60 $127.39 $133.40 $139.63 $146.09 16 $129.71 $135.88 $142.29 $148.94 $155.83 17 $137.81 $144.38 $151.19 $158.25 $165.57 20 $162.13 $169.85 $177.86 $186.17 $194.79 22 $178.35 $186.84 $195.65 $204.79 $214.27 24 $194.56 $203.83 $213.44 $223.41 $233.75 26 $210.78 $220.81 $231.22 $242.03 $253.23 28 $226.99 $237.80 $249.01 $260.64 $272.71 30 $243.20 $254.78 $266.80 $279.26 $292.19
7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00%
14 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 16 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 18 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 20 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 22 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 23 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 24 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 28 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 30 $8.11 $8.49 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74
7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00%
14 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 16 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 18 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 20 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 22 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 23 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 24 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 28 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51% 30 40.26% 46.93% 53.86% 61.05% 68.51%