joint eurostat/unece work session on demographic projections
DESCRIPTION
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections. Trend reversal in Childlessness in Sweden. Lisbon 28-30 April 2010. Lotta Persson Forecast Institute Statistics Sweden. The model for fertility assumptions. Assumptions for 7 groups. Different methods. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections
Trend reversal in Childlessness in Sweden
Lotta Persson
Forecast InstituteStatistics Sweden
Lisbon 28-30 April 2010
2389Vill du avs1
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The model for fertility assumptions
Group % 2009
Swedish-born 77Foreign-born
Nordic countries 2 EU-countries 3 remaining Europe 4 countries with high HDI 2 countries with medium HDI 10 countries with low HDI 2
Assumptions for 7 groups
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Different methods
• Swedish-born: assumptions on the probability to give birth to the first, second, third or fourth (or more) child for each age and cohort
• Foreign-born: The age specific fertility is projected forward
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Method for Swedish-born
First birth incidence rates for cohorts born 1970, 1975 and 1980
1970
1975 1980
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Method for Swedish-born
Fertility for cohort born in 1975
Observed Predicted
First child
Second
child
Third child
Fourth child
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Development of childlessness
Percent childless
17 %
15 %
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Development of childlessnessSwedish born
Percent childless
1960
1965
19701975
1977
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Rapid educational expansion
Educational level at age 30
0
20
40
60
80
100
1960 1965 1970 1975Cohort
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary education < 3
Tertiary education > 3
Year
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
Mean age at first birth
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Educational level and childlessness
1960
1965
1970
1975
1977
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Possible reasons for the trend reversal in childlessness
• Increased possibility to get infecundity treatments (IVF treatments increased from 3 000 in 1991 to 12 000 in 2007).
• Survey in 2009 shows that it is common to have used aid to have children (40 percent of those who had their child after age 34 had used aid).
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Aid to have children – more common among women with higher education
05
101520253035404550
Primary school
Secondary school
Tertiary education
-27 years
28-33 years
34-40 years
Share of women who used aid to have children by educational level
and age at birth of first child
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More positive attitude towards having children among women with higher education
Share of childless cohabiting or married women who answer “yes” to
the question: Do you think you will have children in the future?” by
age and educational level
and age at birth of first child
0102030405060708090
100
Primary school
Secondary school
Tertiary education
-27 years
28-33 years
34-40 years
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Future development?
Percent childless
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Thank you for listening!
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How many of them will be childless in the
future?