joint horizon scanning
DESCRIPTION
Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making. 16th- 17th October 2008. Joint horizon scanning. Victor van Rij. Netherlands Horizon scan team Knowledge Directorate - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Joint horizon scanningVictor van Rij
Netherlands Horizon scan teamKnowledge Directorate
Ministry of Education, Culture and Science
Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Joint Foresight
•ERA Net For-society, exchange of know how, ultimate goal joint foresight
•Investigation of barriers and advantages of joining foresight
•Search for similar foresight activities and willing partners
•Creative session of the Network --- horizon scanning most promising candidate for joining foresight activities
•Broad scope; Less problems with agenda (opportunity :HS activity in 3 countries more or less at the same time – many countries potentially interested)
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Partners
•Horizon Scanning Centre UK / GOS
•Netherlands Horizon Scan COS / Ministry of Education, Culture and Science
•Danish Horizon Scan / OECD-Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI)
•Maltese Council for Science and Technology (MCST)
•PREST
__________________•Many interested institutions
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Objectives of the Pilot
•exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level;
•compare working methods and methodologies used by the different horizon scans and formulate recommendations for improvement;
•compare basic data (lists of issues and issue descriptions) from the horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark;
•develop a model for continuous data sharing and comparison;
•formulate recommendations for the development of international cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning
Schedule of the Pilot
• Brainstorm with partners and interested institutions (March 19 th 2007)
• Interviews with scan coordinators, representatives several DG’s EC and interested institutions
• Development joint scan base and input data
• Pilot partner meeting October 2007
• Report to the For society Network November 2007
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Working Methods of the different scans
•Different purposes (RD agenda – Public policy)
•Phases and a systematic approach
•Data gathering and selection / using implicit or explicit values /as far as we can see , imagine/ categories
•Literature study complemented by expert panels/interviews
•Synthesis/analysis - clusters/scenario’s using creative group thinking
•Use: Demand driven and supply approach
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Working Methods of the different scans
•widen the scope for policy- and decision-makers
•provide the basis for resilient (cross-departmental) policies
•alert policy-makers to forgotten and emerging (new) risks and opportunities
•point out uncertainties, challenge dominant, implicit assumptions about the future
•stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels
•identify new challenging issues for policy, research, development and innovation; •identify knowledge gaps
•identify possible inter linkages (enhancers, inhibitors, multipliers) between future issues
•identify new trans-disciplinary and policy domain crossing sets of issues
•deliver input to research and innovation, policy, public debate, and departmental policies,
•deliver information that can be used for priority-setting for future investments.
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4. Evaluation and
Weighing of problems andopportunities
List P
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Lijst O
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5. Coupling of opportunitiesand problems through creativesessions and consultations
3. IdentificationProblems and opportunities
10. Report withRecommendations for
-Knowledge and strategicagenda
1. Literature Study
2. Consultation ofnational
International experts
6. Formation of Clustersand connections
domains + disciplines
7. Cluster descriptions
9. Knowledge and strategicQuestions per cluster
8. Essays per cluster
354 6
9
10
12
8
7
Website
R&D agenda
Policy agenda
Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell
Sigma Scan development
Activity Engagements Output
Scan the scans
Categorisedata
Create the E-database
Society & Public Policy High Impact
Issues
Further communication
events
New material
Issue analysis and synthesis
Workshop
Cross-linkages With policy
Themed Scenarios
ExtranetPeer reviewDiscussiongroups
Updateddatabase
Finalised Themed Scenarios
Final database
Reports andmultimedia output
Data AnalysisPhase
ReviewPhase
DeliveryPhase
ResearchPhase
OSTHorizon Scanning Centre
United Kingdom horizon scanning in a nutshell
OECD-DASTI Horizon scan
Opportunities/solutions :Opportunities/solutions : Threats/problems from:Threats/problems from:
And Ecology,And Ecology,
EcosystemEcosystem
BiodiversityBiodiversity
Human:Human:
Survival , HealthSurvival , Health
Welfare, wealthWelfare, wealthWellbeingWellbeing
Democracy, lawDemocracy, law
Self-realizationSelf-realization
Culture, ethicsCulture, ethics
Physical environmentPhysical environment
Natural resources from Natural resources from
(Outer) Space(Outer) Space
SpaceSpace
Sea and watersSea and waters
Earth and soilEarth and soil
Atmosphere Climate Atmosphere Climate
Living worldLiving world
Physical environmentPhysical environment
Shortage/destruction/Shortage/destruction/
(Outer) Space(Outer) Space
SpaceSpace
Sea and waters Sea and waters
Earth and soilEarth and soil
Atmosphere climateAtmosphere climate
Living worldLiving world
Human action/brainpowerHuman action/brainpower
Science & TechnologyScience & Technology
EducationEducation
Social systemSocial system
Political, Government, legal, Political, Government, legal,
economy, financeeconomy, finance
Other Systems Other Systems (infrastructures, production, (infrastructures, production,
transport, ICT, energy, transport, ICT, energy, industry, healthcare, industry, healthcare,
agriculture)agriculture)
Human action/environmentHuman action/environment
Science, technologyScience, technology
Education Education
Social systemSocial system
Political, Government, legalPolitical, Government, legal
Economy, financeEconomy, finance
Systems (infrastructures, Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, production, transport, ICT,
energy, industry, health care, energy, industry, health care, agriculture)agriculture)
COMMONCOMMON
LONG TERMLONG TERM
DESIRESDESIRES
& VALUES& VALUES
With expected With expected large impact onlarge impact on
society:society:
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Explicit values Netherlands Horizonscan
• Biological dimension : Quality of life, Ecological Quality
• Social dimension : Social Quality
• Economic financial dimension: Economic Quality
• Governmental dimension : Juridical and Democratic Quality
• Cultural, ethical and intellectual dimension : Cultural, ethical and intellectual Quality
• Self realization of (future) citizens, freedom of individuals and of religious and cultural expression
• Good neighborhood dimension : International relationship Quality
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Joining data and comparison of contents
Comparison categories:
•Scans are using almost similar main categories
Joining the data:
•Using the Sigma scan database
Comparisons issues:
•Contents of the scans are strongly overlapping but also contain unique issues, some issues are not present in 1 of the three scans
•Scans can therefore be considered as complementary
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Joining data and comparison of contentsategories
Netherlands United Kingdom Denmark
•Social context•Society Incl. Public services
•Culture•Work life•People
•R&D and education • Science &Technology •Development
•Economical context/ Finance • Economics •Economy
•Physical environment •Environment•Nature •Resources
•Political, administrative and legal•Public services
• Politics•State•Global
UK categories
A
B 146 issues
C
DK headings
I
II 125 issues
III
NL domains
a
b 159 issues
c
Combined categories
A a I
B b II total: approx
C c III 430 issues
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Joining data and comparison of contents
Distribution of the selected issues over the main categories
Category United Kingdom Denmark Netherlands total
Society 18,5 22,4 7,5 15,6
Science & technology 16,4 8,8 15,1 13,7
Economy/Finance 21,2 21,6 18,9 20,5
Environment/Ecology 13,7 15,2 23,3 17,7
Politics/Public services 30,1 32,0 35,2 32,6
total number of issues 146 125 159 430
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning results
Positioning , role and impact
•Central positioning (UK, Netherlands, Denmark)
•Different assignments (cross departmental policies, R,D & I agenda setting)
•Informing and stimulating other departments and levels of governance and society (UK )
•Impact on R&D strategic agenda (Denmark, Netherlands)
•Sometimes the value of the scan is still underestimated, despite of the central position
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Conclusions regarding the common database
•It is feasible to join the data for comparable analysis provided that we discuss and agree on common coordinates
•Joining enriches the data and lends itself for the formulation of in-depth scans but also for identification of emerging common challenges
•Issues have been selected according to implicit /explicit value sets which differ per country. It is important to make the selection of issues transparent (especially if this is outsourced)
•The UK sigma scan database could with some adaptation be used to join the input from different countries
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Recommendations joint horizon scanning
•Enriching in depth , connecting with more detailed scans of domains or issues, the role of scientific contributions
•Expansion in width, introducing scans from other angles, using more (new) participatory approaches to collect data (through Weblogs, wiki-like constructions etc) other countries but also OECD,ESF, IPTS etc
•Incorporating and connecting to different Users on the EC level
•Developing instruments for impact measurement /improvement(Lead question: we know there is always impact , but is it effective? Do we reach the real decision makers? Does it hits the right targets? Do we increase the speed of reaction to future threats and opportunities??? Do we create more sustainable and resilient Policies by using HS?)
Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge
Joint Horizon scanning conclusions
Recommendations joint horizon scanning
Further cooperation could be directed to further development of horizon scanning with focus on the following common aspects:
•Recognition and filtering of weak signals (for instance with the help of web-bots)
•Dealing with complexity envisioning long term common challenges on basis of the combined scans
•Widening stakeholder and HL decision makers involvement
•Overcome the dilemma of present day agenda vs long term strategy (time for the future) , using boundary knowledge