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Joint Research Centrethe European Commission's in-house science service
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Environmental impact assessment in the JRC
BIOMASS project
Jacopo Giuntoli, Luisa Marelli
13 June 2017
Environmental impacts in the BIOMASS project
Supply-chains definition, data collection and
impact assessment
Integrated Assessment
Model àEnvironmental
indicators
Commodity-level System-level
(Task 3) (Task 5)
Two different LCA modelling principles
Theattributional lifecyclemodeldepictsitsactualorforecastedspecificoraveragesupply-chainplusitsuseandend-of-lifevaluechain.Theexistingorforecastedsystemisembeddedintoastatictechnosphere.
Theconsequential lifecyclemodeldepictsthegenericsupply-chainasitistheoreticallyexpectedinconsequenceoftheanalyseddecision.Thesysteminteractswiththemarketsandthosechangesaredepictedthatanadditionaldemandfortheanalysedsystemisexpectedtohaveinadynamictechnosphere thatisreactingtothisadditionaldemand.
Because the scope of the analysis in the two tasks is different, we need two modelling principles.
Task 3 is based on A-LCA modelling, while Task 5 follows more consequential principles.
Supply-chain impacts
Silviculture Logging Transport Processing Commodity+ + + +
Total GHG emissions=
Task 3: Database
30
343 PATHWAYS
FEEDSTOCKS
100%Coverage for GHG emissions
≈15%Coverage for Acidification, Particulate, Eutrophication, Ozone formation, Primary energy use
Databaseof supply chains LCAs*
Energy
Bio-materials
Waste disposal
Food
Biofuels for transport
Electricity
Heating
Milk
Food waste to biogas
Food waste to compost
Bio-materials
Wood products
Polyactic acid
Polyhydroxyalkanoates
1,3 - Propanediol
Lactic acid
Acetic acid
Succinic acid
Adipic acid
Lysine
Sawnwood
Plywood
Particleboard
Fiberboard
Laminated board
Corrugated board
Newsprint
Graphic paper
Kraft paper
Tissue paper
Melamine impregnated paper
Testliner paper
Task 3: Supply chains results
Notabene:
• ThesevaluesrepresentonlySUPPLYCHAINSimpact.
q NOmarket-mediatedimpacts
q NObiogenic-Cemissionand
q NOcounterfactualconsideration
• SeenextsectiononAdvancedA-LCAforan
integrationoftheseissuesinLCAofbioenergy
pathways
Task 3: Supply chains results
Task 3: Supply chains results
Task 3: Supply chains results
An "Advanced" approach to attributional-LCA?
Consequential thinking and advanced tools applied to A-LCA studies.
This analysis can provide relevant information on feedstocks, systems, configurations and management practices that carry potential environmental risks, highlighting particular red flags that will need to be looked at carefully (especially at local scale)
Our definition of "Advanced A-LCA":
o Multiple systems and storylines are compared including alternative uses of biomass (multiple "counterfactuals");
o Climate change is evaluated with normalized-cumulative metric (GWP(100)) and with absolute, time-explicit, end point metric (AGTP);
o Impact on climate change accounts also for Near Term Climate Forcers (NTCF) and for biogeophysical forcers;
o Advanced tools are used where possible, for instance:
q Forest management and ecosystem models (e.g. CBM, EFISCEN, G4M)
q Agricultural cropping system models (e.g. Cropsyst, Century, DNDC)
q Energy system models (e.g. JRC EU-TIMES, PRIMES, POLES)
•Advancedtools(Century)toassessSOCchangeduetostrawremovalinEU-28countries
N.B: results based on 1 MJ el. per year
2030 2044 2058 2072 20862016 2100-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
Slurry biogas (Close digestate)
Slurry biogas (Open digestate)
Straw
FRel vs. Ref_FRel STel vs. Ref_STel Biogas OD vs. Ref_OD Biogas CD vs. Ref_CD
[x 10-15]
Years
Surfa
ce T
empe
ratu
re R
espo
nse
- ins
tant
aneo
us (K
MJ-1
)
Wor
seC
limat
e ch
ange
miti
gatio
n
Forest residues
2030 2044 2058 2072 20862016 2100-100.0
-75.0
-50.0
-25.0
0.0
25.0
50.0(a)
FRel vs. Ref_FRel STel vs. Ref_STel Biogas OD vs. Ref_OD Biogas CD vs. Ref_CD
[x 10-15]
Years
Surfa
ce T
empe
ratu
re R
espo
nse
- cum
ulat
ive
(K a
MJ-1
) (b)
Clim
ate
chan
ge m
itiga
tion
Clim
ate
wor
seni
ng
Slurry biogas (Close digestate)Slurry biogas (O
pen digestate)
Straw
Forest residues
• ResultsobtainedapplyingAGTPmodelformulationsfromIPCCAR5,2013.
• IncludingWMGHG(CO2,CH4,N2O)andNTCF(NOx,CO,NMVOC,SO2,BC,OC).
•Mitigationpotential:ImpactofBioenergy– ImpactofReference•Reference=EU27powergenerationMix
Source: Giuntolietal.,BiomassandBioenergy(2016),89:146
Example: Climate change mitigation potential of power generation from forest residues
• ResultsobtainedapplyingAGTPmodelformulationsfromIPCCAR5,2013.
• IncludingWMGHG(CO2,CH4,N2O)andNTCF(NOx,CO,NMVOC,SO2,BC,OC).
•Mitigationpotential:ImpactofBioenergy– ImpactofReference•Reference=EU27powergenerationMix
Example: Climate change mitigation potential of power generation from forest residues
• Negative values: potential CC mitigation• Positive Values: potential CC worsening
2030 2044 2058 2072 2086 21002016
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
-4.0 Clim
ate
chan
ge m
itiga
tion
Decay rate 11.5% a-1
(e.g. branches in temperate climate)
Decay rate 40% a-1
(e.g. needles, twigs)
Decay rate 2% a-1 (e.g. coarse deadwood)
Surfa
ce T
empe
ratu
re R
espo
nse
- ins
tant
aneo
us (K
MJ-1
)
Years
[x 10-15]
Clim
ate
chan
ge w
orse
ning
Sensitivitytodecayrateofresidueswhenleftonforestfloor
Source: Giuntolietal.,BiomassandBioenergy(2016),89:146
Task 5: System level analysis
Notabene:
• Thelistofindicatorsispreliminary.
• Relativeimpactsamongdifferentscenarios/
storylines.
Indicators of DRIVERS• GDPtrend
• Populationtrend
• Overalllevelofconsumptionandproduction:Biomassflowsthroughsectors.
Indicators of PRESSURESLandUsechange
(pressureson)Biodiversity (pressureson)ClimateChange Landmanagementintensification• Conversion/productiononProtectedareas
à worlddatabaseonprotectedareas/NATURA2000areas
• Conversion/productiononintactforestlandscapes
• Conversion/productiononpeatlands
• Conversion/productiononareasofhighbiodiversityvalue(includinggrasslandandforests).
• Conversion/intensificationofproductiononhighcarbonstockforests
• Conversion/intensificationofproductiononwetlands
• Conversion/intensificationofproductiononpeatlands(histosoils)
• Conversionofabandoned/marginal/fallowland;
• Conversionofgrasslandtocropland
• Conversionofforesttocropland
• Deforestation/Afforestation
• C-stocksinforests,woodproducts(andlandfills)
• Intensificationofagriculturalmanagement:
o Indexonagriculturalinputs:e.g.Totalmineralfertilization
o Agriculturalresiduesmanagement:increasedremovalofresidues
o Areawithconventional/conservationagriculture.
• Intensificationofforestmanagement:
o Rotationtimes
o Areaundermineralfertilization
Soilquality Wateruseandquality ILCDIndicatorsandmodelsatMidpoint• Biomassextractiononsteepslopes
• Shareofresiduesremoved
• Extractionofbiomassfromsoilsdefinedasstony
• Biomass cultivation with irrigation in areas with highlevel of water scarcity
• ClimateChange
• OzoneDepletion
• Ecotoxicity foraquaticfreshwater
• HumanToxicity- cancereffects
• HumanToxicity– non-cancereffects
• ParticulateMatter/RespiratoryInorganics
• IonisingRadiation– humanhealtheffects
• PhotochemicalOzoneFormation
• Acidification
• Eutrophication– terrestrial/aquatic
• ResourceDepletion– water
• ResourceDepletion– mineral,fossil
• LandUse
DESCRIPTIVE INDICATORS
DESCRIPTIVE INDICATORSIndicators of IMPACTS
ILCDIndicatorsandmodelsatEndpoint Impactsonresourceefficiency/Naturalresources• Landtake/Urbanization
• Recyclingrate/cascadingindexes
• Carbonintensityofeconomyà GDP(orValueAdded)/kgCO2
• Energyintensityofeconomyà GDP(orValueadded)/MJprimaryenergy
• Freshwaterextraction/consumption
• (Humanappropriationofnetprimaryproduction)
• (Transnational land acquisition)
PERFORMANCE INDICATORSCarbonstocksandGHGemissions EU2030targets
• LULUCFà aggregationofvariousC-stockdatatocomplywithaccountingrulesdefinedatEUlevel.
• GHGemissionsfromlivestocksector
• GHGemissionsfromenergysector
• Potential leakages (emissions outside EU borders associated with importedbiomass and with indirect effects)
• GHGemissionreductionascomparedtoEUtargetsfor2030.
• Energyefficiency:Primaryenergyconsumptionreduction
• RESshareinfinalenergyconsumption
• RESshareelectricitygeneration
• RESintransport
SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS (proposals)
• Priceandsupplyofnationalfoodbasket• Definitionofanindextoaccountfordisplacementofbiomassbetweensectors:e.g.asproxy,
stemwood/sawnlogs tobioenergy;agriculturallandconvertedtoenergycrop.• Definitionofacascadedindexofwood• Energysecurityindexes:e.g.domesticbiomassforbioenergyoverimportedbiomassfor
bioenergy;domesticprimaryenergysupplyoverimportedprimaryenergy.• Foodsecurity:domesticfood/feedproductionoverimport.• Jobscreated:estimateofjobscreatedperunitofresiduedeliveredtotheplant;employment
indicesinfeedstockcollectionandinplantconstructionandoperation• Processingefficienciesbytechnologyandfeedstock• Productioncosts• GrossValueAdded(GVA)atfactorcostandcontributiontogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)• Averageproductioncost(APC)andshareofcostofwood-basedmaterials• Importsandexportsofwoodandproductsderivedfromwood,andnettrade• Useofrenewableandnon-renewablematerials,classifiedbyvirginandrecycledmaterial• Labourproductivity• ShareofforestscertifiedforSustainableManagement• Consumptionofwoodpercapita
Impact assessment: conclusions and outlook
o LCAs of supply chains: we know how to do itü We will continue to expand the database (e.g. algal biofuels, waste-
derived products, bio-plastics)
o Consequential thinking in attributional LCA: we are
improving methodological understandingü More and more studies following these approaches for strategic
assessment
o Impact assessment of large-scale models: we are learning
how to do itü Good examples available in the literature;
ü Important integration of multiple expertise and modelers.
o Social and economic dimensions to be addressed in the
future.
@Jacopo_Giuntoli