joint unece/eurostat work session on migration statistics 3 march, 2008, geneva, switzerland...

Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland

Selected methods to improve emigration estimates

MEASURING OF UNDECLARED EMIGRATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS

DALIA AMBROZAITIENĖ

STATISTICS LITHUANIA



OVERVIEW

GENERAL INFORMATION

NEW DEVEPOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA

MEASURING UNDECLARED MIGRATION

FUTURE WORK ON THE IMPROVEMENT OF AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA

CONCLUSIONS



EU MEMBER STATES CRUDE NET MIGRATION RATE (2007, per thousand population, Eurostat provisional data)

-4,7-4,4

-3,6-1,6-1,5

-0,8-0,4

0,41,0

1,61,71,7

3,23,43,6

4,04,54,64,6

5,4 5,75,8

7,79,0

14,315,3

18,5

-6 0 6 12 18

RomaniaBulgaria

PolandLITHUANIA

EstoniaLatvia

NetherlandsGermanySlovak ia

FranceFinland

HungaryPortugalAustriaGreece

UKDenmark

MaltaCzech Republic

BelgiumSweden

SloveniaItaly

LuxembourgIreland

SpainCyprus



LITHUANIA - THE COUNTRY OF EMIGRANTS

IN 1990–2007

482 THOUSAND PERSONS EMIGRATED FROM LITHUANIA

(about 15 per cent of total population)

96 THOUSANDS IMIGRATED



USER NEEDS

GOOD QUALITY AND ACCURATE STATISTICAL INFORMATION ON:

International migration statistics, especially emigration flows

Main demographic and socio-economic characteristics of emigrants, etc.

Timeliness

International comparability

Statistical analytical information on economic emigration phenomena, complex analysis of migration processes



CHALLANGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA

Persons leaving the country difficult to count due to their absence, significant share of emigrants do not declare emigration (free movement of persons within the enlarged EU, mobility of population, abolition of border control in the Shengen area)

Problems of statistical observation of outflows; undeclared status of movements, short–term migrant became emigrant (change of place of the residence for more then 12 months)

Combination of administrative data sources does not ensure sufficient quality of emigration statistics



NATIONAL METHODOLOGY ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS

UN RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION (1998)

THE LAW ON DECLARATION OF RESIDENCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA

REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON COMMUNITY STATISTICS ON MIGRATION AND INTERNATIONAL PROTECTION No 862/2007



NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MIGRATION STATISTICS

UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY

UNDECLARED EMIGRANT

IS A PERSON WHO HAS NOT DECLARED HIS/HER DEPARTURE FROM THE COUNTRY AND HIS USUAL PLACE OF RESIDENCE IN AN OTHER COUNTRY OR S/HE IS

INTENDING TO STAY IN ANOTHER COUNTRY FOR A PERIOD 12 MONTHS OR LONGER



UNDERCLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY

QUESTIONNAIRE

Questions about PERSON WHO EMIGRATED

New country of residence;

How many years /months ago s/he left Lithuania

MAIN DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIO-ECONOMICCHARACTERISTICS

Age, sex

Educational attainment

Occupation before leaving

Current status (worker, student, other)

REASON FOR EMIGRATION (2007)

FAMILY (trans-national family) - whether all family left, where and with whom are children, who (relatives, grandparents, etc.) take care about children if both parents emigrated (2007)




Annual household survey, I quarter (2006, 2007, 2008)

Framework of the LFS by supplementing module on undeclared migration

One-stage simple random size, sampling frame – Population register

2006 4.000 households (0.3 per cent of pop.)






Data on emigrants who not declared their departure are in population register database with any changes

Auxiliary information

(population number by municipality, breakdown of population by sex, age group and urban/rural area)

USUAL RESIDENTS OF LITHUANIA =

EMPLOYED POPULATION +

UNEMPLOYED POPULATION +

INACTIVE POPULATION +

EMIGRANTS WHO HAVE NO DECLARED THEIR DEPARTURE



UNDECLARED MIGRATION SURVEY

Data obtained compared (at personal level,

according to confidentiality rules) with database of Population Register and the State Social Insurance Fund Board

Accuracy: coefficient of variation for the number of emigrants who had not declared their departure in 2003-2006 ranged between 12.6 – 19.2 percent



UNDECLARED MIGRATION SURVEY

RESULTS – FOR EVALUATION

OF UNDECLARED AND TOTAL EMIGRATION FLOWS

EACH SECOND–THIRD EMIGRANT DECLARES HIS/HER DEPARTURE

FROM LITHUANIA



EMIGRATION FLOWS FROM LITHUANIA 2001–2006, thousand

Evaluation based on the Undeclared emigration survey and the data of declaration of place of residence.

7,3 7,111,0

15,2 15,6 12,6

15,8

7,4

11,7

17,3

32,5

15,2

0

10

20

30

40

50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Persons, who notdeclare their departure

Persons, who declaretheir departure

23,1

14,5

22,7

48,1

27,8

32,5



CHALLENGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA

Great need to develop specific studies HOW TO INTEGRATE statistical estimates

Estimated figure is used ADITIONALLY

to register-based demographic and migration statistics



MEASURING UNDECLARED MIGRATION. INTEGRATION TO REGISTER-BASED STATISTICS

CONTINUATION OF EMIGRATION SURVEY

IMMIGRATION SURVEY 2008 focusing on assessment of undeclared return migration

Field work – II quarter

Results – IV quarter

To estimate number and main characteristics on return migrants

Studies, how to integrate results of survey to migration and demographic statistics?



INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

HOUSEHOLDSSURVEYS

POPULATION REGISTER DATABASE

UNDECLARED

EMIGRATION

SURVEY

STATE SOCIAL INSURANCE DATABASE

DECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS UNDECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS

EVALUATION OF TOTAL MIGRATION FLOWS

UNDECLARED

IMMIGRATION

SURVEY



CONCLUSIONS

Find the best solution aimed at further development of migration and demographic statistics. Due to existing undeclared migration, to work on the methodologies for combining the administrative data sources, households surveys, scientifically based estimations methods for the improving quality of statistics

Collaboration with scientific community, international experts, Eurostat and NSI’s on methodological issues

Full implementation of European Regulation on Community migration statistics

Exchange of data on migrants between countries

Preparation for Population and housing census 2011

User needs satisfaction, more complex analysis, etc.

THANK YOU !

www.stat.gov.lt

[email protected]

joint unece/eurostat work session on migration statistics 3 march, 2008, geneva, switzerland...

Documents

community statistics

emigration estimates

statistics lithuania

switzerland selected

economic emigration

international protection

lithuania conclusions

thousands imigrated