Jonathan Day, Gregory Ross, and

Roxanne Connelly

University of Florida

Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory

Vero Beach, Florida

A GIS Model of Arboviral Risk Assessment in

Florida

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

No.

WN

V C

ases

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49Week of Year

Human Case EpicurveColorado, 2003

Factors that Drive Vector-borne Disease Epidemics

Pathogen

VectorAmplification Host

Environmental Factors

Culex nigripalpus: An Important Arboviral Vector in Florida

Water Table 1.3 meters below surface

Water Table 0.8 meters below surface

Low areas (ditched, furrows, sinkholes) during periods of drought

Water Table 1.6 meters below surface

Culex nigripalpus ovisposition sites during periods of wetting

Water Table 1.0 meters below surface

Gregg Ross, FMEL

Jeffrey Shaman, Oregon State

University

589 MWTDdata recording stationsacross peninsularFlorida

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

Date

Mod

elle

d W

ater

Tab

le D

ata

19861987198819891990

Figure 3

Modeled Water Table Depth

589Data Points

1 2 3

MWTD values RISK MapsMWTD Maps

GIS RISK Maps3

MWTD values RISK valuesRISK model comparison

Arboviral transmission risk for May 2005

Pinellas County Florida: 2005 Case Study

Onset Dates: 1 June to 22 August, with 15 reported during July, 2005

Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory

MWTD Data for the Pinellas County, FL WNV outbreak of 2005

MWTD recording sites MWTD data for Pinellas County, 2005

2003 2004 2005 2006

Week Number

Mod

eled

Wat

er T

able

Dep

th

Hum

ans

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igSe

ntine

ls