jordan’s nuclear power programme meetings/09-30 iaea/10... · 2019-10-03 · median load forecast...

Jordan Atomic Energy Commission

Jordan’s Nuclear Power Programme:

SMR Assessment and Costing Issues in Jordan

Oct 3rd , 2019

Rakan AyoubJordan Atomic Energy Commission

1


Jordan’s Country Profile

- Total Area: 89,213 Km2

- Sea Port: Aqaba

- Coastline: 26 Km

- Population: 9.956 million (2016)*60% (15- 64) 35% (below 15)

- Climate: Mediterranean & Arid Desert

- GDP: $42.29 billion (2018)*

- Per Capita: $4,247 (2018)*

- GDP Growth: 1.94% (2018)*

- GDP Growth: 2.2% - 2.6% f (2019-2020+)*

* WORLD BANKf WORLD BANK - Forecasted

2


Generated Energy by Fuel

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GW

h

NG HFO LFO Renewable Imp. Electricity

Gas Interruption

LNG Terminal

3


Generating Plants Capacity [MW]

11.89%

55.21%1.18%

16.00%

7.31%

8.18%0.24%

Steam TurbinesGas Turbines CCGas Turbines SCDiesel EnginesWindPVHydro

Total: 5088 MW

2018

4


Available and Committed Capacities versus the Electricity Median Load Forecast (OLD)

0 0 0 0 0

561

821

1200

1539

1832

2100

2670

3045

3634

3974

4336

4721

5095

5490

5908

6352

6839

7740

8579

9151

10138

10783

11754

12846

14022

14824

15676

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

20242025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040M

W

Existing & Committed Capacity Capacity Shortage Peak Load

e

5


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

MW

Conventional Coincident Renewable Gap Load

166409

663931

11671413

24052672

29513535

42444944

52725613

59707640

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

MW

Gap

Jordan Power Balance (Updated) (2017-2040)

6


Available Areas and Sites

7


Amra Region

8


Sites for Majdal

3 Candidate Areas 6 Candidate Sites

9


Aqaba North

Region 3

Aqaba East

Sites for Aqaba

10


Siting Activities Update

Plant Design Specific

11


Project targeted for implementation past 2030

Perform technical & economic assessment to down-select to the most viable and suitable SMR options;

Conduct detailed feasibility studies on the short-listed SMRs.

Assess the Feasibility Studies and select a preferred technology vendor by end or year.

Large Reactor (1000 MWe) SMR

Parallel Tracks

12


SMRs in Consideration ACP-100 HTR-PM SMART RITM-200 NuScale Xe-100

Chinese iPWR

• 125MWe/ module

• 0.3 g seismicity

• 2 passive safety

trains

• 24 month refueling

cycle

Chinese HTR

• 105MWe/ module


• Passive (inherent)

and active safety

trains

• Online refueling

South Korean iPWR

• 110MWe/ module


• 4 passive safety

trains


cycle

Russian iPWR

• 52MWe/ module


• 2 safety trains (passive

and active)


cycle

American iPWR

• 60MWe/ module


• 2 passive safety trains


cycle

American HTR

• 75MWe/ module


• 4 passive (inherent)

safety trains

• Online refueling

13


Matrix Assessment CriteriaFollowing is a detailed Assessment Criteria Matrix:

General ( meeting current international licenseability requirements, areas of risks, vendor and owner responsibilities, etc.)

Design ( design lifetime, efficiency, design adaptation to Jordan’s environment and site characteristics, cooling, foot print and plant layout, etc)

Operation and maintenance (refueling outages, regular maintenance, staffing for operation and maintenance, etc.)

Construction (Construction period, approach of modular construction and assembly, manufacturing capabilities, transportation of heavy equipment, etc.)

Reactor performance (Availability, efficiency, load follow capability, etc.) Nuclear Safety (Defense in depth, operational safety, internal and external hazards,

passive safety features, grace period, CDF, LERF, etc.) Fuel cycle, waste management and non-proliferation (Nuclear Fuel design and safety,

SNF pool design and capacity, fuel handling system to deal with failed fuel elements, experience in fuel supply, experience in waste management and reduction of waste, etc)

Licensing and operating experience ( proven design, compliance with IAEA safety standards, reference design, etc.)

Vendor long term commitment (vendor readiness, localization, etc.) Economic (Capex, O&M, LCOE)

14


Key Factor EvaluationKey Factor 1 2 3

General Safety Design Criteria

Exclusion Zone

Seismic

Aircraft Crash

Fukushima Dai-ichi Lessons

Digital I&C Systems

Licensing & Design Certification

Fuel Supply and Security

Back End of the Fuel Cycle

Radioactive Waste Management

Non-proliferation

Thermal Efficiency

Operability & Maintainability (including availability)

Cooling Water Design

Vendor Long Term Sustainability

Economic

15


Overall Evaluation

Weight 1 Weight 2

Technical 80% 70%

Economic 20% 30%

16


Economic Evaluation ApproachEconomic Evaluation process: Detailed review of Capital Cost

and adjustments.

Adjusted Capital Cost input toLCOE.

Technical Evaluation input forFuel and O&M prepared forLCOE analysis.

Sensitivity and Risks.

17


The next phase will be the preparation of a FeasibilityStudies (FS) based on the selected technologies anddetailed information provided including project specificinformation prepared jointly.

Following detailed Technical and Economic Analysis/FS,one technology will be selected to move on with detaileddiscussions and negotiations for deployment.

As per the results of the Assessment and FS, aJustification of Investment analysis will be made toproceed forward with the technology to deployment.

Technology Assessment (1)

18


Next Steps

Finalize Technical Evaluation

Conduct Economic & Financial Assessment

Prepare Feasibility Report

Select Preferred Technology Provider

Justification of Investment

19


Project Structure Proposal

PROJECT COMPANY

Main Contractor ()

Jordanian Party

Vendor

Operation and Maintenance

Regulator (EMRC)

Lenders

Fuel Supply

Water Supply(MOWI)

Finan

cing Equity

PPA

Water Agreement

Fuel Agreement

O&M Agreements

Electricity off-taker (NEPCO)

Permits and Licenses

EPCContract

Equity

(Sub-Contractor)

20


Required Rate of Return

Discussions are currently being held with potential investors on the Required Rate of Returns acceptable to parties for the Project.

The project returns should be attractive to both the project sponsors and potential third party investors so that they can invest in the project

The price of electricity produced taking into consideration all the economics and financial factors should be competitive to the off-taker (the market).

The project long term viability and success is determined by finding the right balance between the two variables.

The Government of Jordan as a partner, mitigates some of the project risks and exposures. Discussions on optimal Rate of Return and Price of Electricity are ongoing.

21


Security Package (1)Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

Duration: Up to the Agreed termCoverage: 100% of the Plant outputTerm: Take-or-PayGuarantees: Government of Jordan Exchange Rate: Stable exchange rate (PPA)Inflation: PPA price indexed with local and foreign inflation

rates.

Tax Regime

Incentives: Attractive Tax Incentives(Similar to existing IPPs and Renewable Projects)

Water Supply

The GoJ will guarantee the source of water for operation during the lifetime of the project.

22


Security Package (2)Legal and Regulatory Framework

Regulations: Comply with IAEA Guidelines, country of origin, and international best practice

Laws: The GoJ will update required laws to accommodate NPP accordingly

Import/Export: The GoJ will update import/export controls accordingly to allow implementation of NPP

Stability of Law: The GoJ guarantees stability of law during the lifetime of the project

Non-Discrimination: The GoJ guarantees that there will be no discrimination against NPP in future laws and regulations.

23


Security Package (3)Legal and Regulatory Framework

Foreign Currency: The Project Company (as per the law) will be extended all ease in foreign currency transactions for their operations.

Force Majeure

Political Force The investors and lenders will be protected against Majeure (PFM): any local PFM.

Natural Force Balanced risk allocation between parties during NFM. Majeure (NFM):

Any new investment laws that are beneficial for the project will be applied.

24


Thank You

25

jordan’s nuclear power programme meetings/09-30 iaea/10... · 2019-10-03 · median load forecast...

Documents