Journalism 614:Public Opinion and Policy Making

Changes in Global Warming Opinion

Same-Sex Marriage Opinion by Party ID

Gun Ownership and Geography

Opinion and Policy

What influence do these indicators of public opinion have on public policy?

Are our elites responsive to public opinion? Do special interests have a greater influence

over policy making than public opinion? Under what conditions do governments act

in accordance with mass opinion?

Policy Responsiveness “Open interplay of opinion and policy is the

distinguishing mark of popular rule” - H. Lasswell

– A normative view of democracy– Concerns the way things should be

Conversely, “Democratic government only amounts to a hoax, a ritual whose performance serves only to delude the people and thereby to convert them into willing subjects of the powers that be -- V.O. Key

Various Possibilities

Public opinion constrains public policy

Public opinion exerts strong influence to direct or redirect government policy

Public opinion ignored in policy making

Public opinion is molded by elites into alignment with preferred policies

Opinion as Policy Influence

Foreign policy– Iran-Contra Affair - Growing Awareness– Vietnam War - Public Call for Withdrawal– China in UN - Public Opposition Eroded

Domestic Policy– Roe v. Wade - Growing support for abortion– Civil Rights Act - Calls for desegregation– Capital Punishment - Legalized, again but…

Opinion Ignored, Sometimes

Reduce Foreign Aid Cut Back on Space Program Support School Prayer Support More Stringent Gun Control

– Often the influence of strong lobbying groups– Often in response to international threats

Responsiveness Heightened When…

Elected officials more responsive near elections - often through party influence

Elected officials who view themselves as “delegates” — not “politicos” — respond

Elected officials respond to interest groups that reflect the views of public groups– Aggregate and articulate: Democratic pluralism

Elected officials respond to dominant elites

Evidence of Responsiveness

Monroe - studied 222 cases of consistency or inconsistency between government policy and majority public opinion– 64% of the cases were consistent– 28% of the cases, public wanted change,

government stayed with the status quo– 8% of the cases, public wanted status quo,

government adopted a change of policy

Examining Response to Change

Page and Shapiro - Do changes in opinion produce changes in policy?

Policy congruent with opinion 66% of time– The larger the shift in the opinion the more

responsive government was to opinion

Localized Responsiveness

Vietnam and Troop Withdrawals Defense Spending

– Respond to aggregated national opinion

Roll Call Voting - Community Focused– Miller and Stokes find that elected officials are

responsive to the opinions of constituents – Greater for highly salient issues - e.g., Race

Ideological Responsiveness

Respond to ideological climate — public mood — not specific policy preferences– The notion of “public sentiment”– Sense of support for an ideology– Used as basis for range of policies

Long-term responsiveness of ideological mood to public policy change– Stimson, MacKuen, & Erikson

Portrait of Responsiveness?

Do we have democratic decision-making through the influence of mass opinion?

If policies don’t reflect view of majority or growing minority, who do they support?

Is the government responsive or do they move opinion in advance of policy change?

How is opinion manufactured to support certain perspectives?