jp associates 4q fy 2013

14
 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1  Quarterly highlights – Standalone Y/E March ( ` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg(yoy) 3QFY13 % chg(qoq) Net sales 3,907 4,062 (3.8) 3,431 13.9 Operating profit 894 1,019 (12.3) 795 12.4 Adj. Net profit 119 279 (57.3) 110 8.3  Source: Company, Angel Research For 4QFY2013, Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) posted a mixed set of numbers. The performance on the revenue front was above our estimate; however earnings were lower than our estimate, owing to lower-than-expected operating performance and high interest cost. The performa nce on t he reven ue front was owing to real estate revenue surprise. However, lower-than-expected performance of the cement (3.0% yoy decline) and construction segment (13.4% yoy decline) led to a decline in the blended EBITDAM.  Execution improves, operating margins disappoint:  On the top-line front, JAL reported a revenue of  ` 3,907cr in 4QFY2013 (against our estimate of  ` 3,365cr), indicating a decline of 3.8% yoy. The real estate segment grew 14.3% on a yoy basis, however cement and construction segment revenues declined by 3.0% and 13.4% respectively on yoy basis.  The blended EBITDA margin declined by 222bp/424bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 22.9% in 4QFY2013 which was below our estimate of 26.4%. Interest cost increased by 3.1% on a sequential basis to  ` 549cr and was higher than our estimate by 2.8%. The depreciation cost came in at  ` 191cr for 4QFY2013, a jump of 16.5%/5.2% on a yoy/qoq basis. On the bottom-line front, the company reported a PAT of  ` 124cr in 4QFY2013, registering a decline of 56.5% yoy owing to lower-than-expected performance at the operating level and high interest cost. Outlook and valuation : Going forward, we believe deleveraging the balance sheet through monetization of land parcel and stake sale in cement business would help the company in reducing its huge debt, which continues to remain an overhang on the stock. Hence closure of such a deal would be positive for the company. We recommend Buy rating on the stock with a SOTP target price of ` 90 . Key financials (Standalone) Y/E March ( ` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E Net sales 12,709 13,358 14,850 15,631 % chg (3.4) 5.1 11.2 5.3 Adj. net profit 882 489 562 633 % chg 23.7 (44.6) 14.9 12.7 FDEPS ( ` ) 4.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 EBITDA margin (%) 25.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 P/E (x) 18.2 34.3 28.6 25.4 RoAE (%) 8.1 3.8 4.2 4.7 RoACE (%) 8.0 6.8 6.9 7.0 P/BV (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 EV/Sales (x) 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 12.7 11.8 11.5 Source: Company, Angel Research BUY CMP  ` 76 Target Price  ` 90 Investment Period 12 Months Stock Info Sector Net Debt (  ` cr) 20,325 Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 46.1  MF / Banks / Indian Fls 13.9  FII / NRIs / OCBs 22.5  Indian Public / Others 17.5   Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex ( 0.5) 16.9 17.3 JAL ( 9.2) 6. 4 ( 41.8) Face Value (  ` ) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code 16,776 1.6 107/58 1,864,819 Infrastructure  Avg. D aily Volume Market Cap (  ` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low 2 19,674 5,971 JAIA.BO JPA@IN  Viral Shah 022-39357800 Ext: 6842 [email protected] Jaiprakash Associates Performance Highlights 4QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastruct ure May 6, 2013

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Page 1: JP Associates 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1

 

Quarterly highlights – StandaloneY/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg(yoy) 3QFY13 % chg(qoq)

Net sales 3,907 4,062 (3.8) 3,431 13.9

Operating profit 894 1,019 (12.3) 795 12.4

Adj. Net profit 119 279 (57.3) 110 8.3

 Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2013, Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) posted a mixed set of numbers.

The performance on the revenue front was above our estimate; however

earnings were lower than our estimate, owing to lower-than-expected

operating performance and high interest cost. The performance on the revenue

front was owing to real estate revenue surprise. However, lower-than-expected

performance of the cement (3.0% yoy decline) and construction segment

(13.4% yoy decline) led to a decline in the blended EBITDAM. 

Execution improves, operating margins disappoint:  On the top-line front, JAL

reported a revenue of  ` 3,907cr in 4QFY2013 (against our estimate of

 ` 3,365cr), indicating a decline of 3.8% yoy. The real estate segment grew

14.3% on a yoy basis, however cement and construction segment revenues

declined by 3.0% and 13.4% respectively on yoy basis. The blended EBITDA 

margin declined by 222bp/424bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 22.9% in

4QFY2013 which was below our estimate of 26.4%. Interest cost increased by 

3.1% on a sequential basis to  ` 549cr and was higher than our estimate by 

2.8%. The depreciation cost came in at  ` 191cr for 4QFY2013, a jump of

16.5%/5.2% on a yoy/qoq basis. On the bottom-line front, the company 

reported a PAT of  ` 124cr in 4QFY2013, registering a decline of 56.5% yoy 

owing to lower-than-expected performance at the operating level and high

interest cost. 

Outlook and valuation: Going forward, we believe deleveraging the balance

sheet through monetization of land parcel and stake sale in cement business

would help the company in reducing its huge debt, which continues to remain an

overhang on the stock. Hence closure of such a deal would be positive for the

company. We recommend Buy rating on the stock with a SOTP target price of `90.

Key financials (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Net sales 12,709 13,358 14,850 15,631

% chg (3.4) 5.1 11.2 5.3

Adj. net profit 882 489 562 633

% chg 23.7 (44.6) 14.9 12.7

FDEPS (`) 4.0 2.2 2.5 2.9

EBITDA margin (%) 25.9 24.9 24.9 25.0

P/E (x) 18.2 34.3 28.6 25.4

RoAE (%) 8.1 3.8 4.2 4.7

RoACE (%) 8.0 6.8 6.9 7.0

P/BV (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2

EV/Sales (x) 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 12.7 11.8 11.5

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP  ` 76

Target Price  ` 90

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt ( `  cr) 20,325

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 46.1 

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 13.9 

FII / NRIs / OCBs 22.5 

Indian Public / Others 17.5 

 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (0.5) 16.9 17.3

JAL (9.2) 6.4 (41.8)

Face Value ( ` )BSE Sensex

Nifty 

Reuters Code

16,776

1.6

107/58

1,864,819

Infrastructure

 Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap ( `  cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

219,674

5,971

JAIA.BO

JPA@IN

 

Viral Shah

022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Jaiprakash Associates

Performance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure

May 6, 2013

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 2

Exhibit 1: 4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg(yoy) 3QFY13 % chg(qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg(yoy)

Net sales 3,907 4,062 (3.8) 3,431 13.9 13,358 12,853 3.9

Total exp. 3,014 3,043 (1.0) 2,636 14.3 10,033 9,413 6.6Op. profit 894 1,019 (12.3) 795 12.4 3,325 3,440 (3.3)

OPM (%) 22.9 25.1 (222)bp 27.1 (424)bp 24.9 26.7 (179)bp

Int. 549 580 (5.3) 533 3.1 2,011 1,782 12.9

Dep. 191 164 16.5 181 5.2 726 614 18.2

Non op. inc. 25 32 (22.2) 85 (71.0) 154 264 (41.9)

Non recurring 4 5 - 1 - 9 6 -

PBT 183 312 (41) 167 9.6 751 1,314 (42.9)

Tax 60 29 109 56 6.2 249 288 (13.4)

Reported PAT 124 284 (56.5) 111 11.3 501 1,026 (51.2)

PAT (%) 3.2 7.0 (383)bp 4.6 (146)bp 3.8 7.4 (368)bp

Adj. PAT 119 279 (57.3) 110 8.3 492 1,020 (51.8)

 Adj.PAT (%) 3.1 6.9 (381)bp 3.2 (16)bp 3.7 7.4 (376)bp

Adj. EPS (`) 0.5 1.3 (57.3) 0.5 8.3 2.2 4.6 (51.8)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 4QFY2013 Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)

Net Sales 3,907 3,365 16.1

EBITDA 894 890 0.4

Interest 549 534  2.8

Tax 60 83 (28.2)

PAT 124 176 (29.9)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 3

Exhibit 3: Segmental performance

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY2013 4QFY2012 % Chg yoy FY2013 FY2012 % Chg yoy

Segment Revenue

Cement and Cement Products 1,636 1,687 (3.0) 6,046 5,465 10.6Construction 1,533 1,771 (13.4) 5,314 5,842 (9.0)

Power 5 4 19.3 38 36 7.4

Hotel/Hospitality and Golf Course 69 56  22.8 231 197 17.7

Real Estate 641 560 14.3 1,686 1,417 19.0

Investment 16 19 (18.9) 121 201 (40.0)

Others 50 0 - 155 1 -

Unallocated 15 15 (0.9) 60 72 (16.4)

Less: Inter-Segmental Performance 31 18 70.5 140 113  23.5

Total Sales Income 3,932 4,094 (4.0) 13,512 13,118 3.0

Segment Results

Cement & Cement Products 224 213 5.2 702 653 7.6

Construction 293 423 (30.8) 1,382 1,605 (13.9)

Power (0) (1) (84.6) 18 16 12.2

Hotel/Hospitality and Golf Course 13 3 324.3 21 4  484.6

Real Estate 203 245 (17.2) 585 665 (11.9)

Investment 15 19 (20.7) 120 201 (40.6)

Others (1) (1) (41.0) (4) (5) (19.2)

Excep : Profit on Sale of Shares - - - - - -

Total PBIT 747 901 (17.1) 2,824 3,138 (10.0)

Less: Interest Expense 549 580 (5.3) 2,011 1,782 12.9

Less: Exceptional Item - - - - - -

Less: Unallocable Expense 15 9 69.8 62 42  45.8

PBT 183 312 (41.4) 751 1,314 (42.9)

PBIT Margin (%) bp chg. bp chg.

Cement & Cement Products 13.7 12.6 107 11.6 11.9 (33)

Construction 19.1 23.9 (478) 26.0 27.5 (147)

Power (2.3) (18.2) 1,584 45.9 43.9 199

Hotel/Hospitality and Golf Course 18.6 5.4 1,320 9.0 1.8 722

Real Estate 31.6 43.7 (1,205) 34.7 46.9 (1,219)

Investment 97.8 100.0 (223) 99.0 100.0 (104)

Others (1.6) (406.1) - (2.4) (351.9) -Unallocated - - - - - -

Capital Employed in Segment

Cement & Cement Products 13,547 11,670 16.1 13,547 11,670 16.1

Construction 4,742 4,080 16.2 4,742 4,080 16.2

Power 2,469 2,072 19.2 2,469 2,072 19.2

Hotel/Hospitality and Golf Course 633 618  2.3 633 618  2.3

Real Estate 3,610 3,556 1.5 3,610 3,556 1.5

Investment 8,891 6,693 32.8 8,891 6,693 32.8

Others 343 169 102.7 343 169 102.7

Unallocated 4,766 5,661 (15.8) 4,766 5,661 (15.8)

Total 39,001 34,519 13.0 39,001 34,519 13.0

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 4

Segment-wise performance

Cement division

JAL’s cement division reported a 3.0% yoy decline in revenue to ` 1,636cr, againstour estimate of ` 1,385cr, primarily due to an 8.8% yoy fall in cement realisation to

 ` 3,636/ton. Cement volumes increased by 5.9% yoy to 4.5mn tonne (excluding

the Gujarat [4.8 mtpa] and Andhra Pradesh [5 mtpa] plants) in 4QFY2013. For

FY2013, the segment reported a revenue of  ` 6,046cr, indicating a growth of

10.6% yoy while its divisional EBIT margins came in at 11.6%

Construction division

The construction division continued its poor performance on the revenue front;

however was in line with our estimate. Revenue from the division reported a

decline of 13.4% yoy to  ` 1,533cr (in line with our estimate) in 4QFY2013.

Revenue performance was sluggish owing to slowdown in new order inflows andcompletion of key construction projects- Yamuna Expressway and Karcham

 Wangtoo projects. For the full year, the construction segment’s revenue declined by 

9% to ` 5,314cr, while its divisional EBIT margin witnessed a decline of 147bp yoy 

to 26.0%. Since the past few quarters, there has been huge volatility in the

construction segment in terms of revenue and EBIT margins. 

Real estate division

The real estate division continued its good show on the revenue front. It reported a

revenue of ` 641cr in 4QFY2013, indicating an increase of 14.3% yoy, which was

significantly above our estimate of ` 336cr. As per the Management, the real estate

segment saw an increase in revenue owing to revenue booking in projects where

threshold level has been achieved. The divisional EBIT margin of the segment

witnessed a dip of 1,205bp yoy and came in at 31.6% in 4QFY2013.

Exhibit 4: Subdued top-line performance

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: EBITDAM continues to disappoint

 Source: Company, Angel Research 

   2 ,

   9   0   3 

   2 ,

   9   6   9 

   4 ,

   0   6   2 

   3 ,

   0   0   8 

   3 ,

   0   0   5 

   3 ,

   4   3   1 

   3 ,

   9   0   7 

(5.5)

0.7

2.9 3.1 3.5

15.5

(3.8)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)

   7   4   8 

   8   6   7 

   1 ,

   0   1   9 

   8   1   6 

   8   1   4 

   7   9   5 

   8   9   4 

25.8

29.2

25.127.1 27.1

23.2

22.9

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 5

Operating performance disappoints

Blended EBITDA margins declined by 222bp/424bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 22.9%

in 4QFY2013 which was below our estimate of 26.4%. This was mainly due to

lower-than-expected performance of the cement (3.0% yoy decline) and

construction (13.4% yoy decline) segment.  Interest cost increased by 3.1% on a

sequential basis to  ` 549cr and was higher than our estimate by 2.8%. The

depreciation cost came in at  ` 191cr in 4QFY2013, a jump of 16.5%/5.2% on a

yoy/qoq basis. On the bottom-line front, the company reported a PAT of  ` 124cr in

4QFY2013, registering a decline of 56.5% yoy, mainly due to lower-than-expected

performance at the operating level and high interest cost.

Exhibit 6: Lower operating performance dents PAT margins

 Source: Company, Angel Research;

   1   2   9 

   3   1   0 

   2   8   4 

   1   3   9 

   1   2   8 

   1   1   1 

   1   1   9 

4.4

10.4

7.0

4.64.3

3.23.1

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 6

Outlook and valuation

To capture high interest cost from rising debt level we have revised our FY2014

EPS downward to ` 2.5/ share (from an earlier ` 4.3/share) and introduce FY2015

EPS at ` 2.9 respectively. The Management has guided to reduce its consolidated

debt by  ` 6,000cr in FY2014 through monetization of land parcel in JIL and stake

sale in its cement business. Going forward, we believe deleveraging the balance

sheet through monetization of assets would help reduce the huge debt which

continues to remain an overhang on the stock. Hence closure of such a deal would

be positive for the company.

 We have valued JAL’s cement business and construction business at 7.5x

EV/EBITDA and 5x EV/EBITDA, ie  ` 81.5/share and ` 24.1/share, respectively. We

have valued the company’s power and real estate businesses on a market cap

basis (giving 20% holding company discount), which contributes  ` 44.5/share to

our target price. The hotel segment contributes  ` 1.2/share. Treasury shares

( ` 7.5/share) have been valued at the current market price, whereas net debt is

accounted for on a per-share basis in our valuation at  ` 68.6. We recommend a

Buy rating on the stock with a SOTP target price of `90. 

Exhibit 7: SOTP valuation

Business Segment Methodology ` cr `/share % to Target Price

Cement EV/EBITDA (x) 7.5x EV/EBITDA 17,339 81.5 91.1

Construction EV/EBITDA (x) 5x EV/EBITDA 5,122 24.1 26.9

Power Mcap of JPVL (@ 20% holding company discount) 4,632 21.8 24.4

Real Estate NAV/Mcap Jayppe InfraTech + Jaypee Greens 4,825 22.7 25.4

Hotels 8x FY2015E Net Profit 260 1.2 1.4

Treasury Stock At CMP 1,431 6.7 7.5

Net Debt Net Debt for Cement, Construction and Real Estate Business (14,567) (68.6) (76.6)

Total 19,043 90 100.0

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 8:  Angel EPS forecast vs consensus

Angel Forecast Bloomberg Consensus Variation (%)

FY2014E 2.5 3.3 (23.3)

FY2015E 2.9 4.4 (35.2)

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 7

Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary 

Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E OB/

FY13E FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13E FY14E FY15E CAGR (%) FY13E FY14E FY15E Sales(x)

 ABL 219 272 Buy 1,866 2,013 2,293 10.8 24.3 26.0 24.4 0.0 9.0 8.4 9.0 2.9CCCL 12 - Neutral 1,931 2,281 2,492 13.6 (3.3) 0.7 2.0 - (3.5) 17.0 5.8 2.2

IRB Infra 118 167 Buy 3,843 4,152 4,624 9.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 1.2 7.0 7.0 6.8 2.8

ITNL 182 230 Buy 6,564 7,177 7,772 8.8 26.3 29.4 32.4 11.1 6.9 6.2 5.6 1.5

IVRCL 20 35 Buy 3,773 6,287 6,836 34.6 (3.9) 2.3 3.0 - - 8.5 6.5 4.9

JP Assoc. 76 90 Buy 13,358 14,850 15,631 8.2 2.2 2.5 2.9 13.8 34.3 32.2 30.6 -

L&T 1,561 1,795 Buy 60,837 69,586 79,247 14.1 63.4 75.1 84.8 15.7 24.6 20.8 18.4 2.7

NCC 33 45 Buy 5,863 6,576 7,264 11.3 3.1 4.1 4.8  24.6 10.7 8.0 6.9 3.3

Punj Lloyd 54 - Neutral 11,892 13,116 15,119 12.8 (0.4) 3.0 4.7 - - 18.1 11.3 2.0

Sadbhav 114 153 Buy 1,565 2,511 2,736 32.2 1.5 7.3 7.8 131.3 78.2 15.7 14.6 3.3

Simplex In. 116 164 Buy 6,026 6,824 7,563 12.0 14.1 18.0 23.4  28.8 8.2 6.4 5.0 2.5

Unity Infra 31 45 Buy 2,180 2,455 2,734 12.0 12.7 14.6 14.9 8.0 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: SOTP break up

Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total

`  % to TP `  % to TP `  % to TP `  % to TP `  % to TP `  ABL 86 32 - - 182 68 - - - - 268

CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16

IRB Infra 54 32 - - 113 68 - - - - 167

ITNL 80 35 - - 120 52 - - 30 13 230IVRCL 15  43 - - - - 20 57 - - 35

JP Assoc. 24 27 23 25 - - - - 43 48 90

L&T 1,358 76 - - - - 437  24 - - 1,795

NCC 25 57 - - 7 16 - - 12  27 44

Punj Lloyd 64 100 - - - - - - - - 64

Sadbhav 54 35 - - 99 65 - - - - 153

Simplex In. 164 100 - - - - - - - - 164

Unity Infra 45 100 - - - - - - - - 45

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 8

Company background

JAL, the flagship company of Jaypee Group, was set up in 1958 by Jai Prakash

Gaur, who started as a small-time construction contractor in Kota, Rajasthan. Over

the years, JAL has transformed itself into a large infrastructure conglomerate in

India. The company is present across the following sectors: 1) cement (the third

largest group, ~33mt capacity in FY2012); 2) power (the largest private sector

hydro-electric power utility, ~1,700MW operational capacity); 3) real estate (one

of the largest land banks in NCR, with over 695mn sq. ft. area; 4) engineering

and construction (E&C, the largest company in the hydro-electric power sector);

5) expressways/highways (Yamuna expressway is one of the biggest toll projects);

and 6) hospitality.

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 JP Associates | 4QFY2013 Result Update

 

May 6, 2013 9

Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Net Sales 10,355 13,151 12,709 13,358 14,850 15,631

Other operating incomeTotal operating income 10,355 13,151 12,709 13,358 14,850 15,631

% chg 68.4 27.0 (3.4) 5.1 11.2 5.3

Total Expenditure 7,465 10,011 9,413 10,033 11,150 11,716

Net Raw Materials 4,290 6,330 5,906 3,063 3,621 3,812

Other Mfg costs 1,497 1,500 1,139 4,200 4,603 4,814

Personnel 453 596 661 808 898 945

Other 1,225 1,585 1,707 1,962 2,227 2,345

EBITDA 2,891 3,141 3,296 3,325 3,700 3,915

% chg 40.1 8.6 4.9 0.9 11.3 5.8

(% of Net Sales) 27.9 23.9 25.9 24.9 24.9 25.0

Depreciation & Amortisation 456 609 614 726 787 854

EBIT 2,435 2,531 2,681 2,599 2,912 3,061

% chg 38.7 4.0 5.9 (3.1) 12.1 5.1

(% of Net Sales) 23.5 19.2 21.1 19.5 19.6 19.6

Interest & other Charges 1,056 1,458 1,782 2,011 2,235 2,288

Other Income - 225.9 264 154 169 186

(% of PBT) - - - - - -

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 1,379 1,299 1,164 741 846 959

% chg 10.2 (5.8) (10.4) (36.3) 14.2 13.3

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 719.5 514.0 6.1 9.3 - -

PBT (reported) 2,098 1,814 1,170 751 846 959

Tax 390 587 288 253 285 326

(% of PBT) 18.6 32.3 24.6 33.6 33.6 34.0

PAT (reported) 1,708 1,227 882 498 562 633

 Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 1,708 1,227 882 498 562 633

ADJ. PAT 989 713 882 489 562 633

% chg 10.2 (27.9) 23.7 (44.6) 14.9 12.7(% of Net Sales) 9.5 5.4 6.9 3.7 3.8 4.0

Basic EPS (` ) 4.7 3.4 4.1 2.2 2.6 3.0

Fully Diluted EPS (̀ ) 4.5 3.2 4.0 2.2 2.5 2.9

% chg 10.2 (27.9) 23.7 (44.6) 14.9 12.7

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May 6, 2013 10

Balance Sheet (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 425 425 425 444 425 425Preference Capital - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 8,076 8,972 11,879 12,889 13,045 13,265

Shareholders Funds 8,501 9,397 12,304 13,332 13,470 13,690

Minority Interest - - - - - -

Total Loans 17,909 21,505 21,039 26,608 27,938 29,335

Deferred Tax Liability 956 1,194 1,244 1,373 1,373 1,373

Total Liabilities 27,366 32,096 34,587 41,313 42,781 44,398

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 12,847 14,796 14,276 23,016 25,394 27,543

Less: Acc. Depreciation 2,228 2,840 3,331 4,057 4,844 5,698

Net Block 10,619 11,957 10,945 18,959 20,550 21,845

Capital Work-in-Progress 3,892 5,593 4,482 - - -

Deferred Tax Asset 32.8 - - - - -

Investments 5,576 6,484 6,882 8,891 9,091 9,291

Current Assets

Cash 3,879 2,463 1,022 1,303 1,090 1,246

Loans & Advances 3,995 4,938 8,929 9,596 9,652 9,691

Other 5,225 6,120 8,484 7,245 7,511 7,736

Current liabilities 5,853 5,458 6,158 4,681 5,114 5,412

Net Current Assets 7,246 8,063 12,278 13,463 13,139 13,262

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 27,366 32,097 34,587 41,313 42,781 44,398

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May 6, 2013 11

Cash Flow Statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

PBT(excl extra ordinary item) 1,065 1,814 1,170 751 846 959

Depreciation 456 611 491 726 787 854Change in Working Capital 2,725 (2,234) (5,655) (904) 110 34

Less: Other income - (226) (264) (154) (169) (186)

Direct taxes paid 271 (587) (288) (253) (285) (326)

Cash Flow from Operations (1,474) (622) (4,546) 166 1,290 1,335

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets 3,077 (3,650) 1,632 (4,258) (2,379) (2,149)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (214) (908) (399) (2,009) (200) (200)

Other income - 226 264 154 169 186

Cash Flow from Investing 2,863 (4,332) 1,498 (6,114) (2,410) (2,163)

Issue of Equity 87 0 - 19 (19) -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 4,803 3,596 (466) 5,569 1,330 1,397

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 176 (166) (124) (130) (136) (143)

Others (594) 106 2,198 770 (269) (269)

Cash Flow from Financing 5,307 3,537 1,608 6,228 906 985

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 971 (1,417) (1,440) 280 (213) 157

Opening Cash balances 2,909 3,879 2,463 1,022 1,303 1,090

Closing Cash balances 3,879 2,463 1,022 1,303 1,090 1,246

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May 6, 2013 12

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E FY2014E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 16.2 22.5 18.2 34.3 28.6 25.4P/CEPS 7.4 8.8 10.7 13.7 11.9 10.8

P/BV 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2

Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

EV/Sales 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.9

EV/EBITDA 10.7 11.4 11.2 12.7 11.8 11.5

EV / Total Assets 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 4.7 3.4 4.1 2.2 2.6 3.0

EPS (fully diluted) 4.7 3.4 4.2 2.3 2.6 3.0

Cash EPS 10.2 8.6 7.0 5.5 6.3 7.0

DPS 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

Book Value 40.0 44.2 57.9 60.1 63.3 64.4

Dupont Analysis

EBIT margin 23.5 19.2 21.1 19.5 19.6 19.6

Tax retention ratio 81.4 67.7 75.4 66.4 66.4 66.0

 Asset turnover (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

ROIC (Post-tax) 9.6 6.4 6.4 4.7 4.7 4.8

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.5 5.0 6.3 5.6 5.4 5.3

Leverage (x) 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0

Operating ROE 16.2 9.1 6.5 3.1 3.4 3.7

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 10.2 8.5 8.0 6.8 6.9 7.0

 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 15.2 11.6 10.1 7.5 7.1 7.2

ROE 13.0 8.0 8.1 3.8 4.2 4.7

Turnover ratios (x)

 Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6

Inventory / Sales (days) 49 45 48 50 50 49

Receivables (days) 58 71 104 94 61 60

Payables (days) 239 191 217 186 148 151

 W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 81 124 242 320 298 281

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1

Net debt to EBITDA 4.9 6.1 6.1 7.6 7.3 7.2

Interest Coverage 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3

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M 6 2013 13

 

Disclosure of Interest Statement JP Associates

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `  1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies

referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment.

 Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, pleaserefer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited andits affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.