jrv – narrowing co2 uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts and adaptation
TRANSCRIPT
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Narrowing CO2 response uncertainty in projections of climate impacts and
adaptationDr. Julian Ramirez-Villegas
Prof. Andy Challinor
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• Background on direct and indirect CO2 effects• Climate change impacts on crop
yields– Summary of evidence–With or without CO2 fertilisation?
• A case study with Indian groundnut using an ensemble of simulations
Outline
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Direct and indirect CO2 effects
• Direct effects: related to the physiological changes in the crop as a result of increased CO2 concentrations (aka CO2 fertilization)
Long et al. (2006) Science
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Direct and indirect CO2 effects
• Indirect effects: changes associated with the effect of CO2 concentrations on the climate system.
Knutti and Sedlacek (2012)Van Vuuren et al. (2011)
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Climate change impacts on agriculture: summary of evidence
Challinor et al. (2014) NCC and Chapter 7 IPCC AR5 (2014)
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Climate change impacts on agriculture: summary of evidence
Wheeler and von Brauun (2013)
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Climate change impacts: with or without CO2 response?
Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) Nature
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Rosenzweig et al. (2014) PNAS
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Uncertainty decomposition suggests CO2 response is not the largest of uncertainties
(high VPD) (low VPD)
Ramirez-Villegas and Challinor (in prep)Orange = natural variabilityLight green = CO2 responseDark green = Crop modelBlue = GCM
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An ensemble approach to designing genotypic adaptation strategies
• General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM)
• Projections as ensemble of:– Parameters– Climate models (GCMs)– GCM bias correction
methods– CO2 response
• One forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and time period (2030s)
Focus on Indian groundnutTraits: improved water use efficiency, improved partitioning, heat tolerance, duration
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HISTORICAL CHANGE (2030s, RCP4.5)
Ramirez-Villegas and Challinor, Climatic Change (in revision)
Impacts without adaptation
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Impacts with adaptation
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Robustness and uncertainties in genotypic adaptation options
• R>0.5: moderately robust projections• R>0.8: very robust projections
Low GLAM skill –model improvement
Very low cropping intensity
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Uncertainty decomposition
Ramirez-Villegas and Challinor, Climatic Change (in revision)
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Key messages• Better study designs that quantify CO2-
response parameter uncertainty are needed.• Framework to quantify and partition
uncertainty and assess robustness can help determining where investment has the lowest risk, and where and how uncertainties can be reduced.
• Latest and data knowledge on CO2 fertilization effect needs to be incorporated into crop models