jtac welcome2005 jo1jtac.uchicago.edu/conferences/05/resources/jtac_welcome2005.pdf · terrorism,...
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TThreat Anticipation:Social Science Methods & Models
Welcome
Kathleen D. MorrisonProfessor of Anthropology
Director, Center for International StudiesUniversity of Chicago
Charles MacalDirector, Center for Complex Adaptive Agent
System SimulationArgonne National Laboratory
April 8, 2005
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Threat Anticipation and the Social Sciences
University of Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory Joint Threat Anticipation Center
•Nature of threats diverseand changeable
•Most problems are global inscale, but with specific localimplications
•Threat reduction operatesat multiple levels
•Human behavior always atissue
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Terrorism, for example:Understanding the Terrorist Threat Requires an Understanding
of Social and Cultural FactorsSocial Sciences•Sociology•Political Science•Anthropology, Economics•Divinity, Cultural Studies•Languages
Complexity Science•Network Analysis•Complexity Science•Genetic algorithms
Systems Sciences•Decision Sciences•Modeling•Agent-based Simulation•Validation•Social Networks
Computational Science•Languages, toolkits•User interfaces•Distributed computation
Organizational Science•Business Processes•Communication•Information theory
Cognition/AI•Psychology•Multi-Agent Systems
A Useful ModelA Useful Modelfor Understandingfor Understanding
Terrorism Terrorism
Other
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Argonne/Chicago Collaboration in the Social Sciences
University of Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory Joint Threat Anticipation Center
• Argonne: Decision and Information Sciences• Multidisciplinary approach to research• Systems: analysis, integration, engineering• Computational social sciences, agent-based modeling and
simulation• The University of Chicago: world class social sciences
• Political science, economics, sociology, anthropology,psychology, linguistics, history, human development
• Area Studies and language• Center for International Studies
• On-going Collaborations• Conferences: Agent 2004: Social Dynamics: Interaction,
Reflexivity and Emergence http://agent2004.anl.gov/proc.html
• Courses: ABMS 2004: Agent-Based Modeling & Simulation• Projects: The Micro-Macro Dynamics of Suicide Terrorism
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University of Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory Joint Threat Anticipation Center
Center for Middle Eastern Studies*
South Asia Language & Area Studies Center*
Center for South Asian Studies*
Center for Latin American Studies*
Center for East Asian Studies*
Center for Eastern European, Russian & Eurasian Studies
Committee on African and African-American Studies
Committee on Central Eurasian Studies
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University of Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory Joint Threat Anticipation Center
Human Rights Program
Program for the Study of Violence, Conflict, & Security
Joint Threat Anticipation Center
Degree Programs & Courses
Public Outreach & Education
Transnationalism Project
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Argonne/Chicago Collaboration in the Social Sciences
University of Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory Joint Threat Anticipation Center
•The Joint Argonne/UCStructure PromotesProgrammatic Collaboration
•DTRA Charter to theJoint Center for ThreatAnticipation:
“Develop baselinecapability to expandand accelerate the artand science ofanticipating threats.”
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University of Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory Joint Threat Anticipation Center
The Joint Threat Anticipation Center
• Phase I Goals• Develop frameworks and models for integrating
cultural knowledge in meaningful ways to supportpolicy analysis.
• Identify areas of knowledge relevant to future securitythreats.
• Review ASCO models from the standpoint of theirtheoretical and methodological underpinnings.
• Facilitate a broader dialogue• Within the research community• Between the research and policy communities.