july 2018 market summary - tokyo commodity exchange · increased production in saudi arabia and...

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1 TOCOM October 2018 Market Summary (Tokyo, November 5, 2018The Tokyo Commodity Exchange reported October average daily volume of 86,331 contracts, up 6.0% month-over-month and down 3.2% year-over-year. The Gold Standard contract, TOCOMs most active, rose 10.2% m-o-m and 49.8% y-o-y, to 34,507 contracts. Gold Mini was down 1.2% m-o-m and up 19.2% y-o-y to 2,880 contracts. Dubai Crude Oil was up 19.6% m-o-m and up 0.4% y-o-y, to 19,506 contracts. Platinum Standard was down 22.8% m-o-m and down 9.1% to 8,135 contracts. TOCOMs Gold market attracted safe haven seekers as the US-China trade war and the Saudi Arabia situations destabilized world stock markets and a risk-offsentiment pervaded. On October 24, prices hit a 3 month high of 4,458 yen per gram. TOCOM Dubai Crude Oil prices fell and remained bearish after hitting 58,300 yen per kiloliter on October 24. Increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia eased concerns for an oil supply crunch and inventories rose in preparation for annual refinery maintenance. Open interest for all products fell by139,547 contracts to 439,529 contracts, a decrease of 24.1% from the end of October 2017. 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 Inde Point October 2018 Daily Volume Averaged 86,331 Contracts, Up 6.0% M-o-M. Risk-off Sentiment Led to Increased Trading, with Gold Shining at Near 3 Month High - ADV Was Up 10.2% M-o-M and Up 49.8% Y-o-Y Performance of Nikkei-TOCOM Commodity Index July 2013- October 2018 End of October 2018: 297.20, Year-over-Year Change: 15.4

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Page 1: July 2018 Market Summary - Tokyo Commodity Exchange · Increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia eased concerns for an oil supply crunch and inventories rose in preparation

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TOCOM October 2018 Market Summary

(Tokyo, November 5, 2018)The Tokyo Commodity Exchange reported October average daily

volume of 86,331 contracts, up 6.0% month-over-month and down 3.2% year-over-year. The

Gold Standard contract, TOCOM’s most active, rose 10.2% m-o-m and 49.8% y-o-y, to 34,507

contracts. Gold Mini was down 1.2% m-o-m and up 19.2% y-o-y to 2,880 contracts. Dubai Crude

Oil was up 19.6% m-o-m and up 0.4% y-o-y, to 19,506 contracts. Platinum Standard was down

22.8% m-o-m and down 9.1% to 8,135 contracts.

TOCOM’s Gold market attracted safe haven seekers as the US-China trade war and the Saudi

Arabia situations destabilized world stock markets and a “risk-off” sentiment pervaded. On

October 24, prices hit a 3 month high of 4,458 yen per gram.

TOCOM Dubai Crude Oil prices fell and remained bearish after hitting 58,300 yen per kiloliter on

October 24. Increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia eased concerns for an oil supply

crunch and inventories rose in preparation for annual refinery maintenance.

Open interest for all products fell by139,547 contracts to 439,529 contracts, a decrease of 24.1%

from the end of October 2017.

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380Inde Point

October 2018 Daily Volume Averaged 86,331 Contracts, Up 6.0% M-o-M.

Risk-off Sentiment Led to Increased Trading, with Gold Shining at Near 3 Month High -

ADV Was Up 10.2% M-o-M and Up 49.8% Y-o-Y

◆ Performance of Nikkei-TOCOM Commodity Index – July 2013- October 2018 End of October 2018: 297.20, Year-over-Year Change: 15.4%

Page 2: July 2018 Market Summary - Tokyo Commodity Exchange · Increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia eased concerns for an oil supply crunch and inventories rose in preparation

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Average Daily Volume (unit: 1,000 contracts)

Month-End Open Interest (unit: 1,000 contracts)

Month-End Open Interest Average Daily Volume

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000unit: 1,000 contracts

Day Session Night Session Ratio of Night Session

◆ Daily Average Volume and Month-End Open Interest – June 2014-October 2018 October 2018: 86,331 contracts, Month-End Open Interest: 439,529 contracts

◆ Monthly Futures Trading Volume by Session – July 2014- October 2018

October 2018 monthly night session volume: 959,301 contracts (50.7% of total volume)

Page 3: July 2018 Market Summary - Tokyo Commodity Exchange · Increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia eased concerns for an oil supply crunch and inventories rose in preparation

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◆ October 2018 Nikkei-TOCOM Commodity Index Monthly Change

Index Value on

Month-end M/M

Change Monthly Change

1 Nikkei-TOCOM Platinum Index 176.89 5.03 2.9%

2 Nikkei-TOCOM Gold Index 328.49 8.32 2.6%

3 Nikkei-TOCOM Precious Metals Index 264.05 4.32 1.7%

4 Nikkei-TOCOM Corn Index 79.82 1.18 1.5%

5 Nikkei-TOCOM Azuki Index 120.45 1.70 1.4%

6 Nikkei-TOCOM Silver Index 259.31 -0.50 -0.2%

7 Nikkei-TOCOM Palladium Index 246.16 -1.01 -0.4%

8 Nikkei-TOCOM Agricultural Product & Sugar Index 83.14 -0.39 -0.5%

9 Nikkei-TOCOM Commodity Index 297.20 -7.59 -2.5%

10 Nikkei-TOCOM Industrial Commodity Index 297.30 -7.88 -2.6%

11 Nikkei-TOCOM Nearby Month Commodity Index 411.50 -12.36 -2.9%

12 Nikkei-TOCOM Rubber Index 68.08 -2.32 -3.3%

13 Nikkei-TOCOM Crude Oil Index 280.44 -11.21 -3.8%

14 Nikkei-TOCOM Soybean Index 85.74 -3.64 -4.1%

15 Nikkei-TOCOM Oil Index 240.59 -11.82 -4.7%

16 Nikkei-TOCOM Kerosene Index 231.38 -11.72 -4.8%

17 Nikkei-TOCOM Gasoline Index 202.22 -16.50 -7.5%

* Nikkei-TOCOM Leveraged Index and Nikkei-TOCOM Inverse Index are excluded from this ranking.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

International Customer Trades Ratio against Total Trades

unit: 1,000 contracts

◆ International Customer Trades (in Futures) – July 2014– September 2018

Customer trades (combined sell & buy orders) originating overseas for September 2018:

1,599,035 contracts (54.5% of all TOCOM trades- all time high)

Page 4: July 2018 Market Summary - Tokyo Commodity Exchange · Increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia eased concerns for an oil supply crunch and inventories rose in preparation

TOCOM October 2018 Trading Volume

Contracts

M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y

Change Change Change Change

Gold Standard 759,164 34.7% 56.9% 34,507 10.2% 49.8%

Gold Mini 63,369 20.8% 24.9% 2,880 -1.2% 19.2%

Gold Rolling Spot 144,396 26.9% -49.6% 6,563 3.8% -51.9%

Silver 1,348 -8.7% 54.2% 61 -25.3% 45.2%

Platinum Standard 178,978 -5.6% -4.8% 8,135 -22.8% -9.1%

Platinum Mini 9,520 -5.0% 42.6% 433 -22.3% 36.2%

Platinum Rolling Spot 20,934 -49.2% -88.9% 952 -58.5% -89.4%

Palladium 3,148 31.1% 1.5% 143 7.3% -3.4%

Gold Option (Call) 1,372 6.3% 9.1% 62 -13.0% 3.3%

Gold Option (Put) 1,360 5.4% 7.9% 62 -13.7% 3.3%

Dubai Crude Oil 429,128 46.2% 5.2% 19,506 19.6% 0.4%

Gasoline 83,734 94.5% 31.1% 3,806 59.1% 25.1%

Kerosene 18,370 55.2% -23.8% 835 26.9% -27.3%

Gas Oil 0 -- -- 0 -- --

Cash-settled Barge Gasoline 276 2.2% -58.7% 13 -16.4% -59.4%

Cash-settled Barge Kerosene 264 -2.6% -60.0% 12 -20.3% -61.3%

Cash-settled Barge Gas Oil 264 -2.2% -60.0% 12 -20.0% -61.3%

Cash-settled Lorry Gasoline 264 -2.2% -60.0% 12 -20.0% -61.3%

Cash-settled Lorry Kerosene 264 -2.2% -60.1% 12 -20.0% -61.3%

Cash-settled Lorry Gas Oil 264 -2.2% -60.0% 12 -20.0% -61.3%

Chukyo-Gasoline 2,784 547.4% 377.5% 127 429.7% 353.6%

Chukyo-Kerosene 1,201 528.8% -12.4% 55 414.5% -15.4%

RSS3 Rubber 128,468 -1.9% -0.9% 5,839 -19.7% -5.4%

TSR20 Rubber 39,093 -- -- 2,300 -- --

Corn 10,613 54.1% -53.8% 482 26.0% -55.9%

Soybean 300 141.9% -92.6% 14 97.9% -92.7%

Azuki (Red beans) 386 -57.3% -89.1% 18 -65.1% -89.3%

Total 1,899,262 29.5% 1.4% 86,330 6.0% -3.2%

Physical

Gold (100g) 22 29.4% 10.0% 1 5.9% 5.0%

Gold(1kg) 5 25.0% 0.0% 0 2.3% -4.5%

Total 27 28.6% 8.0% 1 5.2% 3.1%

Grand Total Volume 1,899,289 29.5% 1.4% 86,331 6.0% -3.2%

Futures

Contracts

Monthly Trading Volume Average Daily Volume

1,899,262

October

2018

October

2018

Gold Standard

40.0%

Gold Mini 3.3% Gold Rolling Spot7.6% Silver 0.1%

Platinum Standard

9.4%

Platinum Mini 0.5%

Platinum Rolling Spot 1.1%

Palladium 0.2%

Dubai Crude Oil

22.6%

Gasoline 4.4%

Kerosene 1.0%

RSS3 Rubber 6.8%

TSR20 Rubber 2.1%

Corn 0.6%

October 2018 Monthly Futures Volume