july 22, 2003. model objectives forecast adt on the rural state highway system autos & trucks...
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Model ObjectivesModel Objectives
Forecast ADT on the Rural State Highway SystemForecast ADT on the Rural State Highway System Autos & TrucksAutos & Trucks Arterial SystemArterial System
Complement, But Not Compete With, 9 MPO ModelsComplement, But Not Compete With, 9 MPO Models Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within.Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within.
Why Practice?Why Practice?
Traffic forecasts affect every aspect of a State DOT’s Traffic forecasts affect every aspect of a State DOT’s core business activities:core business activities: planning & finance, programming, design, planning & finance, programming, design,
construction & maintenanceconstruction & maintenance
A useful, cost-effective toolA useful, cost-effective tool system, corridor, project level data for evaluating system, corridor, project level data for evaluating
needs & alternativesneeds & alternatives reliable & timely forecastsreliable & timely forecasts consistent methodologyconsistent methodology
Dear Office of Homeland Security:Dear Office of Homeland Security:
OK,OK,
I have my duck taped.I have my duck taped.
Now how about a Now how about a statewide model? statewide model?
TomTom
Why Not?Why Not?Urban ModelsUrban Models
Federal mandate, 40+ Federal mandate, 40+ years R&Dyears R&D
Predictable travel Predictable travel behavior, specialized behavior, specialized tools.tools.
Attractive career paths for Attractive career paths for modelers.modelers.
Statewide ModelsStatewide Models
No federal mandate, No federal mandate, little R&D or datalittle R&D or data
Travel behavior less Travel behavior less predictable, modeling predictable, modeling tools less useful.tools less useful.
Limited career paths Limited career paths for DOT modelers.for DOT modelers.
Available Demographic DataAvailable Demographic Data
1990 & 2000 Census Geography & Data1990 & 2000 Census Geography & Data
Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS)Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS)
1997 Economic Census 1997 Economic Census
Woods & Poole Economic, Demographic Woods & Poole Economic, Demographic Data Data
Claritas Demographic & Lifestyle DataClaritas Demographic & Lifestyle Data
D&B Employment DataD&B Employment Data
Regional Demographic DataRegional Demographic Data
Available Network DataAvailable Network Data
National Highway Planning Network (NHPN) National Highway Planning Network (NHPN)
NORTAD 1998 DatabaseNORTAD 1998 Database
2000 National Transportation Atlas Database 2000 National Transportation Atlas Database (NTAD) (NTAD)
FHWA’s National HPMS Data FHWA’s National HPMS Data
GDT National Traffic Count Data GDT National Traffic Count Data
KyTC Highway Information System (HIS)KyTC Highway Information System (HIS)
Available Travel DataAvailable Travel Data
1990, 2000 CTPP1990, 2000 CTPP
American Travel Survey (ATS), National American Travel Survey (ATS), National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)
Reebie Commodity Flow DataReebie Commodity Flow Data
Commodity Flow SurveyCommodity Flow Survey
Vehicle Inventory & Use SurveyVehicle Inventory & Use Survey
MPO Trip Generation, Distribution, Mode MPO Trip Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice & External Survey DataChoice & External Survey Data
Statewide Travel ModelsStatewide Travel Models
Mark ByramMark ByramOhioOhio
Vince Bernardin & Steve SmithVince Bernardin & Steve SmithIndianaIndiana
Paul HershkowitzPaul HershkowitzMissouri, MichiganMissouri, Michigan
Tom CooneyTom CooneyKentucky, Wisconsin, South Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, MississippiVirginia, Mississippi
Statewide Travel ModelsStatewide Travel Models
Mark ByramMark ByramOhioOhio
Vince Bernardin & Steve SmithVince Bernardin & Steve SmithIndianaIndiana
Paul HershkowitzPaul HershkowitzMissouri, MichiganMissouri, Michigan
Tom CooneyTom CooneyKentucky, Wisconsin, South Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, MississippiVirginia, Mississippi
Key FeaturesKey Features
Macro-Micro Modeling FrameworkMacro-Micro Modeling Framework
Preservation of linkages to KYTC HISPreservation of linkages to KYTC HIS
Use of ATS, NPTS & NHTS For Travel Market Use of ATS, NPTS & NHTS For Travel Market SegmentationSegmentation
Activity Based Zone StructureActivity Based Zone Structure
Claritas Lifestyle Clusters For Trip Household Claritas Lifestyle Clusters For Trip Household Trip GenerationTrip Generation
Reebie Data for Heavy Truck Flows Reebie Data for Heavy Truck Flows
Passenger ModelPassenger Model
ModesModes
Network and zone systemsNetwork and zone systems
Trip generationTrip generation
Trip distributionTrip distribution
Mode choiceMode choice
AssignmentAssignment
Freight ModelFreight Model
ModesModes
Network and zone systemsNetwork and zone systems
Trip generationTrip generation
Trip distributionTrip distribution
Mode choiceMode choice
AssignmentAssignment
Calibration & ValidationCalibration & Validation
FHWA’s “Calibrating and Adjustment of System Planning Models” (NCHRP 365)
TMIP “Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual”
Task # Milestone/Activity Completion Date
Task 1.0 Draft Specifications / Stakeholder Workshop Summer 2003
Final Model Specifications Summer 2003
Task 2.0 Data Compilation / Acquisition Fall 2003
Forecast Year Model Inputs Winter 2003
Freight Forecasts Winter 2004
Task 3.0 Model Development, Validation, and Calibration Spring 2004
Submit Draft Report and Model Files Spring 2004
Task 4.0 Develop Model Application and Interface Summer 2004
Model Training Summer 2004
Final Report and Deliverables Summer 2004
KYSTM Brainstorming SessionKYSTM Brainstorming SessionPriority TopicsPriority Topics
Goal Statement?Goal Statement?
Model users, uses and outputsModel users, uses and outputs Who should use info from model?Who should use info from model? What information do they want/need?What information do they want/need? How should they get the information?How should they get the information?
Data resources?Data resources?
KYSTM Brainstorming SessionKYSTM Brainstorming SessionPriority TopicsPriority Topics
Passenger modeling proceduresPassenger modeling procedures
Freight modeling proceduresFreight modeling procedures
Calibration/Validation criteria, standardsCalibration/Validation criteria, standards
Data/Model management proceduresData/Model management procedures