jun 12 the worst performer - singapore property research · in the last 5 years, the property...

THE WORST PERFORMERIN THE BEST PERFORMING PERIOD

JUNE 2012 / ISSUE 1

The property market experienced one of its best performing 5‐year periods from 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2012. One project defies all odds and leave buyers who bought in 2007 in the red. But there is more to it than just past price performance.

SQUARE FOOT RESEARCH PTE. LTD. For enquiries, call +65 6315 9289 www.squarefoot.com.sg

JUNE 2012 – THE WORST PERFORMER IN THE BEST PERFORMING PERIOD – SQUARE FOOT RESEARCH PTE. LTD. PAGE 1

The Worst Performer I N T H E B E S T P E R F O RM I N G P E R I O D

In the last 5 years, the property market in Singapore

experienced one of its best performing 5‐year

periods, with property prices rising by more than

50% (from 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2012). The gain is not

shared equally by all segments. Non‐landed property

prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) rose by a

more moderate 37.5% over the same period,

compared to that in the Rest of Central Region (RCR)

and the Outside of Central Region (OCR), which rose

50.8% and 68.3%, respectively. Interestingly, non‐

landed property rental rates in the CCR rose by 36.7%

over the same period, supporting the segment’s

capital value appreciation. However, rental rates in

the RCR and the OCR saw increases of 40.5% and

45.4%, falling behind their respective capital value

appreciations.

Of course, each property within the same segment

would have performed differently as well over the

same 5‐year period from 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2012. As we

would expect following how the indices performed

for the three segments, the top 5 performers were

located outside of the CCR and the bottom 5

performers were located within the CCR. Among the

bottom 5, St Regis Residences Singapore, actually

registered a fall in capital value by 16.2% (about 3%

annually) from an average value of $2,671psf in 1Q

2007 to $2,237psf in 1Q 2012. Sherwood Tower, a

residential block within Bukit Timah Plaza, tops the

chart with a capital value appreciation of 174.8%

(22.4% annually). Interestingly, Summerdale, an

Executive Condominium, appeared in top 5 with a

gain of 125.9% (17.7% annually).

While the high‐end may be a laggard in the past 5

years, its more moderate price appreciation is fully

supported by a proportionate increase in its rental

rates, and the mass market rally has given the

segment a new price support. Supply in the high‐end

is limited. The subdued en bloc market helps limit the

supply to just what it is today. The mass market, on

the other hand, is being inflated with new supply

from the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme.

In addition, the high‐end segment is attractive from

the point of view of its replacement cost. The

average price for a non‐landed property in the

outskirts stood at about $990psf in 1Q 2012 while

land costs average at $450psf ppr, i.e. the selling

price is more than twice its cost of land. On the other

hand, the average price for non‐landed properties in

districts 9 to 11 stood at about $1,800psf in 1Q 2012,

just about what a site within the three prime districts

would sell for, in our opinion.

Top 5 Performer from 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2012

Project

ASP in 1Q 2007* ($psf)

ASP in 1Q 2012*($psf)

Change (%)

Sherwood Tower 258 709 174.8Northvale 329 754 129.2Summerdale 305 689 125.9Grande Vista 365 792 117.0Loyang Valley 280 607 116.8

*With at least 3 transactions in the quarter Source: URA, squarefoot.com.sg

Bottom 5 Performer from 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2012

Project

ASP in 1Q 2007* ($psf)

ASP in 1Q 2012*($psf)

Change (%)

St Regis Residences Singapore

2,671 2,237 ‐16.2

Waterford Residence

1,301 1,385 6.5

One Shenton 1,884 2,083 10.6The Sail @ Marina Bay

1,722 1,963 14.0

Rivergate 1,614 1,951 20.9*With at least 3 transactions in the quarter Source: URA, squarefoot.com.sg


St Regis Residences Singapore

T R E N D S A N D A N A L Y S I S

See complete analysis at

www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends‐and‐analysis/residential?p=st‐regis‐residences‐singapore


St Regis Residences Singapore (Cont’d) T R E N D S A N D A N A L Y S I S


Selected Land Sales (Sold) T R E N D S A N D A N A L Y S I S

See complete analysis at http://www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends‐and‐analysis/land‐sales?p=sengkang‐square‐compassvale‐drive


Selected Land Sales (Closing) T R E N D S A N D A N A L Y S I S

See complete analysis at http://www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends‐and‐analysis/land‐sales?p=farrer‐drive


New Launch – Sky Habitat

T R E N D S A N D A N A L Y S I S

See complete analysis at http://www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends‐and‐analysis/residential?p=sky‐habitat


New Launch – Sky Habitat (Cont’d) T R E N D S A N D A N A L Y S I S


Appendix

D I S C L A I M E R

This report provides information and opinions as reference resource only. This report is not intended to be and does not constitute

financial advice, investment advice or any other advice. The report has been prepared without regard to the individual financial

circumstances, needs or objectives of persons who receive it. Readers should not rely on any of the information herein as

authoritative or substitute for the exercise of their own skill and judgment in making any investment or other decision. You agree

that any and all use of this report which you make, is solely at your own risk and without any recourse whatsoever to Square Foot

Research Pte. Ltd., its related and affiliate companies and/or their employees. You understand that you are using this report at your

own risk. Square Foot Research Pte. Ltd. makes reasonable effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no

representation that it is accurate or complete.

© 2012 Square Foot Research Pte. Ltd.. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Square Foot Research Pte. Ltd.. Square Foot Research Pte. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

jun 12 the worst performer - singapore property research · in the last 5 years, the property...

Documents