june 15, 2012 rbc wealth management global insight weekly...spanish banks hold outsized positions in...

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JUNE 15, 2012 All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Priced as of June 15, 2012, market close (unless otherwise stated). For Important Disclosures, see pages 5-6. Equity Scorecard - June 15, 2012 » Despite numerous shortcomings in Spain’s bailout plan and negative U.S. economic data, equities rallied on hopes central bankers and policymakers would once again come to the rescue. » The upcoming Greek election results may not provide a clear signal about what could happen next. » Europe’s leaders must ultimately decide whether they want to go “all in” or if they are willing to watch global markets unravel the euro system altogether. (page 2) » Global Roundup: Updates from the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Asia. (pages 3-4) Global Insight Weekly RBC Wealth Management Author Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, USA [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC Contributors Mark Allen, Adrian Brown – Toronto, Canada [email protected], [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Frederique Carrier – London, UK [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd. Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Index (local currency ) Lev el Weekly MTD YTD S&P 500 1,342.83 1.3% 2.5% 6.8% S&P/TSX Comp 11,524.07 0.2% 0.1% -3.6% FTSE 100 5,478.81 0.8% 3.0% -1.7% H ang Seng 19,233.94 4.0% 3.2% 4.3% Dow (DJIA) 12,767.17 1.7% 3.0% 4.5% NASDAQ 2,872.80 0.5% 1.6% 10.3% Russell 2000 771.32 0.3% 1.2% 4.1% STOXX Europe 600 244.21 0.9% 1.9% -0.1% German DAX 6,229.41 1.6% -0.6% 5.6% Nikkei 225 8,569.32 1.3% 0.3% 1.3% Straits Times 2,811.00 2.7% 1.4% 6.2% Shanghai C omp 2,306.85 1.1% -2.8% 4.9% Brazil Bovespa 56,104.69 3.1% 3.0% -1.1%

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Page 1: June 15, 2012 RBC Wealth Management Global Insight Weekly...Spanish banks hold outsized positions in Spanish sovereign debt. It represents 8% of banks’ assets. When sovereigns sell

June 15, 2012

All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.Priced as of June 15, 2012, market close

(unless otherwise stated).For Important Disclosures, see pages 5-6.

Equity Scorecard - June 15, 2012

» Despite numerous shortcomings in Spain’s bailout plan and negative U.S.

economic data, equities rallied on hopes central bankers and policymakers

would once again come to the rescue.

» The upcoming Greek election results may not provide a clear signal about what

could happen next.

» Europe’s leaders must ultimately decide whether they want to go “all in” or if

they are willing to watch global markets unravel the euro system altogether.

(page 2)

» Global Roundup: Updates from the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Asia. (pages 3-4)

Global Insight WeeklyRBC Wealth Management

Author Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, USA [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Contributors Mark Allen, Adrian Brown – Toronto, Canada [email protected], [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Frederique Carrier – London, UK [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Ltd.

Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Index (local currency) Level Weekly MTD YTD

S&P 500 1,342.83 1.3% 2.5% 6.8%S&P/TSX Comp 11,524.07 0.2% 0.1% -3.6%FTSE 100 5,478.81 0.8% 3.0% -1.7%Hang Seng 19,233.94 4.0% 3.2% 4.3%

Dow (DJIA) 12,767.17 1.7% 3.0% 4.5%NASDAQ 2,872.80 0.5% 1.6% 10.3%Russell 2000 771.32 0.3% 1.2% 4.1%STOXX Europe 600 244.21 0.9% 1.9% -0.1%German DAX 6,229.41 1.6% -0.6% 5.6%Nikkei 225 8,569.32 1.3% 0.3% 1.3%Straits Times 2,811.00 2.7% 1.4% 6.2%Shanghai Comp 2,306.85 1.1% -2.8% 4.9%Brazil Bovespa 56,104.69 3.1% 3.0% -1.1%

Page 2: June 15, 2012 RBC Wealth Management Global Insight Weekly...Spanish banks hold outsized positions in Spanish sovereign debt. It represents 8% of banks’ assets. When sovereigns sell

2 gLoBAL InSIgHT weeKLy – JUne 15, 2012

Markets & the EconomyMarket Scorecard - June 15, 2012

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Page 1 equity returns do not include dividends. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 9:00 pm GMT 6/15/12.

Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.98 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.98 U.S. dollars. CAD/USD 0.0% return means the Canadian dollar is flat vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 78.68 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 78.68 yen. USD/JPY 2.3% return means the U.S. dollar rose 2.3% vs. the yen year to date.2.3

Bond Yields 6/15/12 6/8/12 12/30/11 YTD ChgUS 2-Yr Tsy 0.274% 0.266% 0.239% 0.04%US 10-Yr Tsy 1.579% 1.635% 1.876% -0.30%Canada 2-Yr 0.965% 1.038% 0.956% 0.01%Canada 10-Yr 1.730% 1.808% 1.941% -0.21%UK 2-Yr 0.219% 0.235% 0.327% -0.11%UK 10-Yr 1.666% 1.627% 1.977% -0.31%Germany 2-Yr 0.068% 0.043% 0.144% -0.08%Germany 10-Yr 1.437% 1.329% 1.829% -0.39% Commodities (USD) Price Weekly MTD YTDGold (spot $/oz) 1,625.70 2.0% 4.2% 4.0%Silver (spot $/oz) 28.65 0.5% 3.4% 2.9%Copper ($/ton) 7,405.50 1.7% -0.4% -2.4%Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 84.03 -0.1% -2.9% -15.0%Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 97.86 -2.6% -5.0% -10.0%Natural Gas ($/mlnBtu) 2.44 10.3% 4.5% -18.0%Agriculture Index 384.78 -4.5% -2.6% -11.4% Currencies Rate Weekly MTD YTD

US Dollar Index 81.52 -1.21% -1.8% 1.7%CAD/USD 0.98 0.42% 1.1% 0.0%USD/CAD 1.02 -0.48% -1.1% 0.0%EUR/USD 1.27 1.17% 2.4% -2.3%GBP/USD 1.57 1.52% 2.0% 1.1%AUD/USD 1.01 1.74% 3.6% -1.2%USD/CHF 0.95 -1.17% -2.4% 1.1%USD/JPY 78.68 -1.02% 0.5% 2.3%EUR/JPY 99.64 0.18% 2.9% 0.0%EUR/GBP 0.81 -0.35% 0.4% -3.3%EUR/CHF 1.20 -0.03% 0.0% -1.3%USD/SGD 1.27 -1.04% -1.5% -2.1%USD/CNY 6.37 -0.08% -0.1% 1.1%USD/BRL 2.04 1.04% 1.1% 9.5%

No Fiesta for Spain, So What’s Next?The euphoria over Spain’s €100 billion ($125 billion) bailout lasted a couple of hours and then the party ended. The plan has numerous shortcomings:

• Itaddsroughly9%toSpain’sdebt-to-GDPratio.Government and IMF estimates peg the ratio at 89% including the bailout, but we suspect it’s higher due to health care liabilities and other off-balance-sheet debts. Our national research correspondent argues if the government’s balance sheet ends up absorbing one-third of the excess private sector leverage (19% of GDP), it “would put Spain on the edge of insolvency.”

• Itfailstobreakthenegativefeedbackloop.Spanish banks hold outsized positions in Spanish sovereign debt. It represents 8% of banks’ assets. When sovereigns sell off, bank balance sheets become even weaker.

• €100billionmaynotbeenough. According to press reports, a forthcoming independent

Exhibit 1: When U.S. Retail Sales Growth Pulls Back, Employment Growth Tends to Follow Shortly Thereafter

% change, year-over-year, seasonally adjusted

Source: RBC Capital Markets uS Market economics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Haver Analytics * Retail Sales exclude autos dealers, gasoline, and building materials

Amid volatile trading and as an immense number of European headlines streamed across the globe, equity markets rallied for the week. Much of the activity was driven by hedge funds, with individual investors and large institutions standing on the sidelines ahead of the Greek election on June 17.Regardless of the election winner, and assuming a government can be formed within days, the market anticipates the Greek bailout will be renegotiated, and central bankers stand ready to act if necessary.

Whatever the outcome, however, the election result may not provide a clear signal about what could happen next. The Greek political situation and Europe’s options are less black-and-white than many news reports are portraying. (For more information, see our Greece, Elections & Euro Exits article in the June Global Insight monthly report.)

Yet Greece wasn’t the sole focus. Spain’s new bailout plan received an unenthusiastic response. The yield on 10-year Spanish sovereign bonds spiked 66 basis points for the week to close at 6.874%. Italian bonds also came under pressure as contagion fears accelerated.

Lost in the shuffle were disappointing U.S. economic data. Retail sales, weekly jobless claims, industrial production, consumer confidence, and an important regional manufacturing survey (Empire) fell short of expectations. The equity market brushed aside these data on hopes the Federal Reserve will deliver another round of quantitative easing.

To us, the retail sales report stuck out like a sore thumb. Not only did May sales miss the mark, but previous months were revised lower. Because retail sales growth has slid notably on a year-over-year basis, we wouldn’t be surprised to see employment growth follow suit (see Exhibit 1).

The sloppy retail data prompted Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC, to lower his second-quarter GDP forecast to 1.5% from 1.7% (the consensus forecast is around 2.0%).

-5%

-4%

-2%

-1%

1%

3%

4%

6%

7%

9%

10%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Nonfarm Payrolls Growth with 3-month lag (left axis)

Retail Sales Growth* (right axis)

r = 0.94

Page 3: June 15, 2012 RBC Wealth Management Global Insight Weekly...Spanish banks hold outsized positions in Spanish sovereign debt. It represents 8% of banks’ assets. When sovereigns sell

3 gLoBAL InSIgHT weeKLy – JUne 15, 2012

Markets & the Economy

Global RoundupUnited States• Despite the increase in the major U.S. equity

indices for the week, single-stock trading was rather tentative due to the European uncertainties, and the volatile swings were mainly dominated by futures and options activity. Defensive sectors led.

• Technical trends improved as the Dow punched through the 12,600 level and the S&P 500 closed above the 1,335 resistance level.

• The Treasury yield curve flattened modestly as short yields rose and 10- and 30-year yields declined. The yield spread between the 10-year German Bund and Treasury tightened to its lowest level since late February.

• Coming up: Supreme Court to rule on Affordable Care Act (by end of June); FedEx reports (Jun 19); FOMC meeting and Bernanke press conference (Jun 20); Oracle reports (Jun 21).

audit may indicate banks need only €60-€70 billion to recapitalize. Over time, if the banking system is deemed as stressed as Bankia (a recently nationalized bank), RBC Capital Markets calculates the full €100 billion would be necessary. Furthermore, it estimates a total of €159.5 billion would be required if a worse-case scenario Irish-style housing market collapse were to unfold—not its base-case forecast but a possibility if the economy deteriorates meaningfully.

• Liquidityproblemscouldresurface.If businesses and households lack confidence in the plan or euro system, they may continue to pull deposits from Spanish banks. Counterparty banks may also withdraw more liquidity.

• Itcreatesuncertaintyforprivatesovereigndebtholders. If any portion of the €100 billion loan to Spain comes from the yet-to-be-passed ESM bailout fund rather than the EFSF, that debt would be senior to existing private sector debt. A decision about the structure is expected soon.

Spain’s dilemma (and Greece’s) is indicative of the region’s wider problem. The euro currency union, as it was originally designed, seems unworkable.

Theregion’sleadersmustdecidewhethertheywanttogo“allin”withapolitical,fiscal,andbankingsystemunionoriftheyarewillingtowatchglobalmarketsunraveltheeurosystemaltogether.

Continued sovereign stress in Spain, mounting stress in Italy, and the Greek election outcome (regardless of which party ends up leading a government coalition) has intensified pressure on European officials to make these decisions sooner rather than later.

Anumberofoptionsareonthetable,including:

Eurozonebankdepositguarantees– The European Central Bank (ECB) is now pushing for this but doesn’t have the authority to implement it.

Eurozone member states would need to change their existing deposit insurance schemes to set up

a region-wide system that would jointly guarantee bank deposits, likely with funding from insurance premiums on financial institutions and backing by federal governments (similar to the U.S. FDIC program). This would involve parliamentary votes and possibly some constitutional challenges. If implemented, this would be a key component in establishing a common banking union.

Recently a German central bank official said it’s too soon to consider this option and fiscal integration would need to come first … time will tell.

EuropeanRedemptionFund(ERF)– This would usher in common bond issuance, but would be less sweeping than Eurobonds.

The ERF would allow member countries to jointly finance debt above a certain debt-to-GDP level (60%, for example) in exchange for abiding by stringent taxation, spending, and debt restrictions. The fund could be backed by gold or currency reserves.

German officials proposed this as an alternative to Eurobonds, although Chancellor Merkel has yet to embrace it. German leaders will discuss it June 21.

The ERF is not without parliamentary hurdles. Furthermore, because it would likely allow additional European Union oversight of government budgets, it

Exhibit 2: Percentage of Citizens Who Oppose Allowing Additional EU Oversight of National Government Budgets

40%*

51% 54% 56%

75%

Italy France Spain Germany Greece

Source: RBC Wealth Management, Pew Research Center report “european unity on the Rocks,” 5/29/12 * 15% of Italian citizens are undecided, much higher than other nations.

could face public opposition (see Exhibit 2).

Regardless of these challenges, some analysts view the ERF as a potential “game changer.” RBC Capital Markets views common bond issuance as necessary for Spain and the region. Until it is put in place, precautionary funding mechanisms could be established for vulnerable sovereigns.

WhatcouldinspireEuropeanofficialstogetmovingontheseorotherinitiatives,includingthosethatmightcomefromtheECB?It may take an acceleration of capital flight from the region’s banks, heightened risks of a Greek exit, or the failure of a Spanish or Italian sovereign debt offering.

During the next few weeks the schedule is overloaded with meetings, summits, and press conferences—plenty of opportunities for European policymakers to make good or disappoint.

Page 4: June 15, 2012 RBC Wealth Management Global Insight Weekly...Spanish banks hold outsized positions in Spanish sovereign debt. It represents 8% of banks’ assets. When sovereigns sell

4 gLoBAL InSIgHT weeKLy – JUne 15, 2012

Global Roundup

Canada• The TorontoStockExchangewas little

changed by week’s end and remains just a few percent away from the 52-week low set last fall. Commoditystocksremaininthepenaltyboxgiven global, macro-economic concerns. Valuations for Canadian base metal equities continue to discount commodity levels that were last seen in the Q4/08 to Q3/09 period.Large-capenergystocksalsoremaininexpensive as compared to the historical range.

• Canadianmanufacturingsales fell 0.8% in April, muchworsethanconsensusforecasts of a 0.2% decline. This marks the third decline in the last four months.

• Canadiangovernmentbondyields moved loweracrossthecurve, with the largest decline in yield experienced by the 5-year component of the curve. The 2-year Government of Canada yield now sits below the Bank of Canada’s 1.00% target overnight rate.

• Canada’shouseholddebttodisposableincomeratiorosetoarecord154.3% in the first quarter of 2012 from 152.7% three months prior.

• The Bank of Canada stated in its semi-annual Financial System Review that “the elevated level of household indebtedness continues to be the mostimportantdomesticrisktofinancialstability in Canada.”

Europe• In a joint speech late in the week, the U.K.

Chancellor, George Osborne, and the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, set out a programmeforprovidingfurthermonetaryandfinancialstimulus to the faltering U.K. economy.

• The Bank and the Treasury are working together on a“fundingforlending”scheme

that will provide below-market-rate, long-term funding for U.K. banks in return for sustained or increased lending to U.K. households and corporates. These measures couldboostlendingtotheprivatesectorbysome£80bn(5.2% of GDP). In addition, the Governor suggestedthecaseforfurthermonetaryeasingisgrowing with signs of deterioration in the outlook reflected in world markets over the past month.

• Finally, Chancellor Osborne confirmed there will notbeanysignificantdeviationfromthecurrentfiscalstrategy,but suggested forthcoming measures to make more use of the public sector’s balance sheet to encourage private investment in housing and infrastructure.

• Allinall,thisisastepupinthecrisisresponse.But crucially, the government will continue to stick to its fiscal plans and the “tight fiscal, loose monetary policy” mantra that has defined the present government’s response to the crisis is being maintained.

• Comingup:Greek general election and French legislative elections (Jun 17); Eurogroup meeting (Jun 21); Independent audit reports on Spanish banks (by Jun 21); Merkel, Hollande, Monti, Rajoy meeting (Jun 22).

Asia Pacific• MarketperformanceinAsiawasmixed as the

Greek election grew near.

• Japan,Indonesia, and Thailand all kept their benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.1%, 5.75%, and 3.0%, respectively.

• The Indonesian central bank forecast 2012 GDP at 6.3%-6.7%, driven by domestic demand. The inflation outlook is now more benign. However, the bank noted downsideriskstoIndonesiangrowth due to weak global demand and lower commodity prices, which are a significant portion of Indonesian exports.

• The Bank of Thailand made similar comments. Indeed, following the People’s Bank of China’s 25 basis point cut in rates as well as 75 basis points of easing in recent months from the Reserve Bank of Australia, itisclearthependulumhasswunginAsiafrominflationaryconcernstogrowthconcerns. This is a positive change of direction for equity investors.

• ChineseeconomicdatainMayhasalsoshowedsomemodestsignsofstabilization from weaker-than-expected figures in April. China’s money supply growth improved in May while new loan growth among the banks was above forecasts.

• Additionally, Chineseinflationdeclinedto3.0%inMay from 3.4% in April, providing further scope for accommodative monetary policy. Inflation is likely to drop below 3% in coming months.

Exhibit 3: European 10-year Government Bond Yield Spreads versus Germany (in basis points)

Spanish and Italian Spreads Have Widened Meaningfully

Source: RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 6/15/12

539

444

110

18

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12

SpainItalyFranceUnited Kingdom

Page 5: June 15, 2012 RBC Wealth Management Global Insight Weekly...Spanish banks hold outsized positions in Spanish sovereign debt. It represents 8% of banks’ assets. When sovereigns sell

5 gLoBAL InSIgHT weeKLy – JUne 15, 2012

Important DisclosuresAnalyst Certification All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. no part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.

Important DisclosuresRBC wealth Management is a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, which is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada.

Mark Allen, Adrian Brown, and Jay Roberts, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc.; and Frederique Carrier, an employee of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication. These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FInRA”) and, since he is not an associated person of RBC wealth Management, he may not be subject to nASD Rule 2711 and Incorporated nySe Rule 472 governing communications with subject companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in accounts held by research analysts.

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and the guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10). RBC Capital Markets recommended lists include the Strategy Focus List and the Fundamental equity weightings (Few) portfolios. The abbreviation ‘RL on’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation ‘RL off’ means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List.

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Rating Count % Count %Buy (TP/O) 783 52.30 230 29.37Hold (SP) 648 43.29 162 25.00Sell (U) 66 4.41 2 3.03

Investment Banking Serv ices Prov ided During Past 12 Months

Risk Qualifiers:

Average Risk (Avg): Volatility and risk expected to be comparable to sector; average revenue and earnings predictability; no significant cash flow/financing concerns over coming 12-24 months; and/or fairly liquid.

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Speculative (Spec): Risk consistent with venture capital; low public float; potential balance sheet concerns; and/or risk of being delisted.

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Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months.

Page 6: June 15, 2012 RBC Wealth Management Global Insight Weekly...Spanish banks hold outsized positions in Spanish sovereign debt. It represents 8% of banks’ assets. When sovereigns sell

6 gLoBAL InSIgHT weeKLy – JUne 15, 2012

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firm’s Investment Advisors / Financial Advisors who are engaged in assembling portfolios incorporating individual marketable securities. The Committee leverages the broad market outlook as developed by the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, providing additional tactical and thematic support utilizing research from the RBC Investment Strategy Committee, RBC Capital Markets, and third party resources.

DisclaimerThe information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC wealth Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Wealth Management, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC wealth Management’s judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. every province in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients, including clients who are affiliates of Royal Bank of Canada, and does not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who may read it. The investments or services contained in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or services. To the full extent permitted by law neither Royal Bank of Canada nor any of its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. no matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of Royal Bank of Canada. Additional information is available upon request.

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