June 16, 2009

Michael W. Howard, Ph.D.Sr. Vice President, R&D Group

Renewable Resources

and

Operational Challenges

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The Electric Power Research Institute

• Independent, unbiased, tax-exempt collaborative research organization

• Full spectrum industry coverage

– Nuclear

– Generation

– Environment

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• 460 participants in over 40 countries

• Major offices in Palo Alto, CA; Charlotte, NC and Knoxville, TN

RD&D Consortium for the Electricity Industry

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Renewable Technology Development

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Renewable Technologies

Variability and Predictability

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Challenge - Balancing Generation and Load

LoadGeneration

ObjectiveLess Variability - More Predictability

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Wind – Variable and Predictable?

Tehachapi Wind Generation

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0

1000

2000

3000

250 750 1250

kW

(b)

Solar - Variable and Predictable?

Minutes

Source: Jay Apt CMU, 4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona)

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What’s The Solution?

System Visibility

Generation Balancing Resources

Energy Storage

Transmission Integration

Demand Response

Meteorological Prediction

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750 +282j

250 +84j

100 +62j

20 + 8j

276 + 120j

130 + 8j

300 + 100j

750 + 262j 440

+ 200j

120 + 11j

350 + 150j

227 + 420j 704 + 308j

2

3

4

5

7

6

1

8

9

1011

12 13

14

15

1617

176 +88j

High Speed Scan Rates

More Frequent Analysis of System Condition

Enhanced Grid Visibility

System Visibility

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Generation Balancing Resource0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

0

10

20

30

40

Time (hours)

Po

we

r L

eve

ls (

MW

)

Wind + CT Operating Parameters

Ideal Fill PowerWind PowerActual Fill Power

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5-20

-10

0

10

20

Time (hours)

Ra

mp

Ra

te (

MW

/min

)

Ramp Rates

Acknowledgment: Research Conducted by Warren Katzenstein and Jay Apt, CMU

Ramp Rate and Duty Cycle for CT Balancing Wind

Time (Hours)

Ram

p R

ate

(MW

/min

)

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Energy Storage

Ho

urs

Dis

char

ge

Tim

e

Power

Sec

on

ds

Min

ute

s

100s kW 10s MW 100s MW10s kW

Ultracapacitors

SMES

Lead-Acid and

Nickel Cadmium Batteries

High Energy Flywheels

Metal-Air Batteries

Low Energy Flywheels

Advanced Batteries

Compressed Air

Flow Batteries Pump Storage

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1 mile

Thermal Energy Storage

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Requires Transmission to Major Load Centers

Transmission Integration

Wind Resource Map

Demand Centers

High Wind Availability

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Transmission Integration

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NGCC ($6-8/MMBtu)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0 10 20 30 40 50

Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh

Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton

IGCC

PC

Wind (32.5% Capacity Factor)

Comparative Costs of Electricity – 2015

All costs are in December 2007 $

Rev. October 2008

Biomass

95% confidence level values based on EPRI Report 1018329

Renewables “out of the money” without incentives or mandates

Nuclear

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Summary - Renewable Resources

29 States and DC have Renewable Portfolio Standards – 5 States have Renewable Goals

Several renewable generation technologies – viability depends on location and costs

Tradeoff - Variability and Predictability

Several technical solutions exist to integrate renewable resources