june 2013 irmac slides
TRANSCRIPT
SOLVEforINTERESTINGOTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL.
BIG DATAAND THE QUANTIFIED SOCIETYIRMAC 2013 ANNUAL LUNCH
Breadcrumb trail
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Large amountsof information
Publicand private
Easily linkedand collected
Stored just because we can
Analyzed by humans and
machinesIn near real time
Applied to business
Usable by everyone
Fed backinto the system
A force for good.
Ward off disease.Pinpoint disasters.Reveal corruption.Make cities smarter.Improve how we teach.
“…nobody notices offers they do not get. And if these absent opportunities start following certain social patterns (for example not offering them to certain races, genders or sexual preferences) they can have a deep civil rights effect.”
Anders Sandberg, Oxford University
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/
Big nanny state
“It has never been spread out, yet,” said Mein Herr. “The farmers objected: they said it would cover the whole country, and shut out the sunlight! So we now use the country itself, as its own map, and I assure you it does nearly as well.”
Lewis Carroll’s Sylvie and Bruno Concluded (1893)
Lewis Carroll’s Sylvie and Bruno Concluded (1893)
Broken windows
http://www.flickr.com/photos/shoes_on_wires/3348377521/sizes/l/
Leaded gasoline
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Winter tires
http://www.flickr.com/photos/highwaysagency/6256644401/sizes/l/
Ice cream and drowning
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wtlphotos/1086968783
“A subjective degree of belief should rationally change to
account for evidence.”
(AKA Bayes’ Theorem.)
Sun temple
http://www.flickr.com/photos/30787002@N02/3298693694/sizes/l/
We’re bad at this
Mistake correlation for causalitySeek truthiness rather than factFind patterns where they don’t existEasily swayed by toneSide with our tribesDig in and ignore new evidence
“Where’s a good sushi restaurant?”
Nearby
That friends like
Within price range
Novel Known
Within diet restrictions
No allergies
Location
Socialgraph
Personalfinances
Personality
Weight,activity
Medicalhistory
“Excuse me, but OMG best sushi
joint!”
Nearby
That friends like
Within price range
Novel Known
Within diet restrictions
No allergies
Location
Socialgraph
Personalfinances
Personality
Weight,activity
Medicalhistory
525,000 state & local officersUnder 25 officers per precinct130 million incident reports200,000 uses of force31% keep computer files
A better prediction of the future means a lower risk at
the present.
This fundamentally changes the net present value of
investments.
“The right information in the right place just changes your life.”
- Stewart Brand
“Design is the human capacity to plan and produce desired outcomes.”
- Bruce Mau
Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844
SOLVEforINTERESTINGOTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL.
Alistair [email protected]@solveforinteresting.comTHANKS!
Live prototypesPlanned for 1024x768 minimum resolution and 32 MB memory
Last compiled in 1998: Works with Explorer 4.0 and Netscape 4.5
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thisisbossi/3361608344/