Land Use Technical Advisory CommitteeJune 26, 2018

Today’s ObjectivesMeeting goals

• Continue discussion on supporting VISION 2050 land use inputs• Recap feedback from May/June review• Dig into how we evaluate our model outputs (checklist)

• Discuss draft VISION 2050 growth scenario evaluation metrics

• Introduce the LODES employment dataset

Land Use Modeling for V20503

Recap from May’s MeetingComments received

• Subjects of May/June Review• No Action Methodology• Modeling inputs: FLU assumptions + MPDs

• What we heard• New MPDs• Limited input on FLU assumptions + methods• Understanding “no action” methodology• Additional details on methodology assumptions

• Next steps from review:• Add and double check MPDs• Prepare for additional growth scenario development

Evaluating Model Output + FunctionToday’s focus

• So far: we’ve reviewed the no action methodology and allocation• Methodology• FAZ level output• No Action vs. LUV2

• Additional growth scenarios will build from the methodology with other inputs/policy direction

• Build shared understanding that the model is working well allocating growth

Model Output ChecklistAssessing results

• How do we know the model is working?

Output matches jurisdictional controls Major planned developments are built as programmed Growth generally follows capacity within cities Mixed use res/non-res splits look reasonable The effects of the boosts in Regional Growth Centers are evident

• How do we know the model is working?

Output matches jurisdictional controls Major planned developments are built as programmed Growth generally follows capacity within cities Mixed use res/non-res splits look reasonable The effects of the boosts in Regional Growth Centers are evident

Model Output ChecklistAssessing results

Focus for today

• Land capacity• Future Year Land Use Layer (FLU)• Represent development densities (DU

per Acre, FAR)

• Existing Land Use & Developable parcels• Vacant or Redevelopable / Underutilized

parcels

• UrbanSim Developer Model generates set of proposals on each developable parcel

• Set of largest ‘move on to regional competition.’

• Mixed Use parcels get residential, non-residential, and split use type proposals.

How Does UrbanSim Assign Growth?UrbanSim Basics – Determining land development possibilities

• Is there demand for new buildings?• Assess via vacancy rates & growth in

HHs, Jobs• By building type (MF, Office, etc.)

• Choose proposals from pool• Price weighted chance of being chosen• Built if there is demand for that building

type• Continue until all demand is met

How Does UrbanSim Assign Growth?UrbanSim Basics – Evaluating proposals and adding buildings

• Same developer model process, but demand, proposal evaluation & selection takes place for each jurisdiction

• In-between Allocation Mode years, model operates at the regional level

How Does UrbanSim Assign Growth?UrbanSim Basics – Allocation Mode operates every 5 years

Capacity Shapes DevelopmentBasic Checks: How is capacity being utilized?

• In Allocation Mode, growth by jurisdiction is an input.

• Within jurisdictions, is growth then being placed consistent with comp plans?

• What is the distribution of growth by zoned density?

• How is Mixed Use being developed?

Growth Follows CapacityGenerally residential growth follows allowable DU/Acre

Grouping DU/Acre

Low 0-20

Med 20-120

High 120+

• Includes both Residential-Only Land and Mixed Use• Categorize into 3 tiers for comparison

Growth Follows CapacityGenerally residential growth follows allowable DU/Acre

• Includes both Residential-Only Land and Mixed Use• Categorize into 3 tiers for comparison

Grouping DU/Acre

Low 0-20

Med 20-120

High 120+

Growth Follows CapacityNon-residential capacity and growth also correspond well

• Includes Mixed Use with Non-Residential Only• 3 tiers defined by FAR and measured in SQFT

Grouping FAR

Low 0-1

Med 1-3

High 3+

Growth Follows CapacityNon-residential capacity and growth also correspond well

• Includes Mixed Use with Non-Residential Only• 3 tiers defined by FAR and measured in SQFT

Grouping FAR

Low 0-1

Med 1-3

High 3+

Mixed Use Splits Look ReasonableHow is Mixed Use being developed 2014-50?

• Mixed Use = FLU area that allows all residential, all non-residential, or split use developments• Measured by SQFT• Metro and Core Cities (about 70% of Capacity and 75% of Growth in regional Mixed Use land)

Mixed Use Splits Look ReasonableMixed use areas

• [Click map to open PDF]

Mixed Use Splits Look ReasonableResidential share of MU development, 2014-50

• [Click map to open PDF]

Center Boosts Are EvidentMore significant share of growth in Regional Growth Centers

• General policy goal focusing growth in centers

Share in Centers 2014

2050 - NO boosts

2050 - Center

RGC Growth No Boost

RGC Growth w/ Boost

Population 4.8% 11.1% 13.3% 453,137 583,168Employment 29.2% 30.0% 34.0% 407,621 551,022

Sheet1

Share in Centers 20142050 - NO boosts2050 - Center boostsRGC Growth No BoostRGC Growth w/ Boost

Population4.8%11.1%13.3%453,137583,168

Employment29.2%30.0%34.0%407,621551,022

Summing upCreating RGS No Action + Alternatives

• How do we know the model is working?

Output matches jurisdictional controls Major planned developments are built as programmed Growth generally follows capacity within cities Mixed use res/non-res splits look reasonable The effects of the boosts in Regional Growth Centers are evident

• Next Steps• Update inputs from comments• Continue working on land use inputs

VISION2050 Draft Evaluation Metrics21

Evaluation MetricsComparing RGS alternatives

• Evaluation metrics are the key measures to compare growth concepts

• before SEPA analysis, to help assess growth concepts

• List of metrics (handout)

LODES23

LODESUnsuppressed employment in our LU/travel models

• Opportunity to introduce LODES as primary employment input

• Initial testing with allocation mode and SoundCast has produced results comparable to QCEW

• More details at July LUTAC

(Local Employment Household Dynamics) Origin – Destination Employment Statisticshttps://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/

https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/

Thank you.

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