1

Placer County Water AgencyPlacer County Water AgencyMiddle Fork American River ProjectMiddle Fork American River Project

AQ 4 –AQ 4 – Temperature ModelingTemperature Modeling(Status Report)(Status Report)

June 29, 2009June 29, 2009

2

OutlineOutline

Modeling Progress:Modeling Progress: Middle Fork Below RalstonMiddle Fork Below Ralston Rubicon RiverRubicon River Revisit Ralston ReservoirRevisit Ralston Reservoir

ScheduleSchedule

3

Middle Fork American River Middle Fork American River (MFAR) below Ralston: Geometry(MFAR) below Ralston: Geometry

Profile (25 meter node spacing)Plan (UTM Coordinates)

4294000

4299000

4304000

4309000

4314000

4319000

4324000

4329000

665000 670000 675000 680000 685000 690000 695000 700000

NFAR confluence

Ralston Res.

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

025050075010001250150017502000

Node No.

NFAR confluence

Ralston Res.

4

MFAR below Ralston: Flow Mass MFAR below Ralston: Flow Mass BalanceBalance

Foresthill R11 gage (855:857) 15 min converted to hourly ≈ 849:855 daily converted to hourly + 855 daily accretions converted to hourly+ 847:855 Oxbow Powerhouse hourly (not greater than 980 cfs)+ 845:855 daily converted to hourly

Note: Operation Hydrology Model Mass Balance was left unbalanced if gage flow was greater or smaller than upstream inflows. In the case where the gage was higher than the upstream inflows and operational records show that Ralston Afterbay was spilling, then the inflow to the Foresthill gage was balanced with a commensurate amount of spill over Ralston Afterbay; otherwise, Mass Balance was left unbalanced.

5

MFAR below Ralston: HabitatMFAR below Ralston: Habitat

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200Wetted Area, ft^2

Stag

e, ft

POOL

RUN

LGR

HGR

Habitat % Habitat BreakHGR 3.7%LGR 9.3%RUN 29.4%

POOL 55.9%CAS* 1.7%

* Cascades were assumed as HGR.

6

MFAR Below Ralston Dam MF5-RM24.6MFAR Below Ralston Dam MF5-RM24.6

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

0.10 0.10 0.09 0.090.19 0.10 0.09 0.100.22 0.10 0.10 0.122929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 4Meas_MF5(RM24.6)Sim. Q

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 4Meas_MF5(RM24.6)Sim. Q

7

MFAR below Oxbow PH MF6-RM24.3MFAR below Oxbow PH MF6-RM24.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 1889Meas_MF6(RM24.3)Sim. Q

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.06 0.01 0.01 0.020.08 0.01 0.03 0.032929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 1889Meas_MF6(RM24.3)Sim. Q

8

MFAR MF7-RM23.1MFAR MF7-RM23.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 101Meas_MF7(RM23.1)Sim. Q

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

-0.05 -0.05 -0.23 0.210.36 0.13 0.23 0.530.47 0.22 0.38 0.632929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, oC

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 101Meas_MF7(RM23.1)Sim. Q

9

MFAR MF14-RM19.6MFAR MF14-RM19.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 330Meas_MF14(RM19.6)Sim. Q

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

-0.33 -0.33 -1.01 0.150.73 0.40 1.03 0.460.88 0.55 1.13 0.572929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, oC

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 330Meas_MF14(RM19.6)Sim. Q

10

MFAR MF15-RM14.3 (above Otter Cr)MFAR MF15-RM14.3 (above Otter Cr)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 670Meas_MF15(RM14.3)Sim. Q

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

0.15 0.15 0.28 0.750.87 0.45 0.46 0.991.07 0.51 0.53 1.16

2929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, oC

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 670Meas_MF15(RM14.3)Sim. Q

11

MFAR MF16-RM11.0 (above Canyon Cr)MFAR MF16-RM11.0 (above Canyon Cr)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 888Meas_MF16(RM11.0)Sim. Q

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

-0.10 -0.11 0.19 0.110.81 0.46 0.42 0.771.02 0.60 0.52 0.94

2929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 888Meas_MF16(RM11.0)Sim. Q

12

MFAR MF9-RM8.9MFAR MF9-RM8.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 1025Meas_MF9(RM8.9)Sim. Q

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

-0.65 -0.65 -0.70 0.010.95 0.71 0.75 0.821.17 0.95 0.89 1.02

2929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, oC

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 1025Meas_MF9(RM8.9)Sim. Q

13

MFAR MF8-RM0.1MFAR MF8-RM0.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Tem

pera

ture

, C

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 1608Meas_MF8(RM0.1)Sim. Q

Hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max

-1.50 -1.50 -1.23 -2.251.71 1.52 1.26 2.292.08 1.74 1.42 2.55

2929 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/4/07 8/7/07 8/10/07 8/13/07 8/16/07 8/19/07 8/22/07

Tem

pera

ture

, oC

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

Flo

w, c

fs

Sim_Node 1608Meas_MF8(RM0.1)Sim. Q

14

MFAR Below Ralston: SummaryMFAR Below Ralston: Summary

SummarySummary Effective representation of flow conditions in Effective representation of flow conditions in

peaking reach (i.e., water balance)peaking reach (i.e., water balance) Most locations simulated temperature are Most locations simulated temperature are

representative, additional calibration requiredrepresentative, additional calibration required

In ProgressIn Progress Extending Grid: extend geometry into Folsom Extending Grid: extend geometry into Folsom

ReservoirReservoir Refine travel timeRefine travel time Refine temperature calibration with focus on Refine temperature calibration with focus on

lower riverlower river

15

OutlineOutline

Modeling Progress:Modeling Progress: Middle Fork Below RalstonMiddle Fork Below Ralston Rubicon RiverRubicon River Revisit Ralston ReservoirRevisit Ralston Reservoir

ScheduleSchedule

16

Water temperature Rubicon River mile Water temperature Rubicon River mile 28.828.8

Upstream boundaryUpstream boundary

0

5

10

15

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wat

er te

mpe

ratu

re (

oC)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Obs RR 28.8

Flow rate

0

5

10

15

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wat

er te

mpe

ratu

re (

oC)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Obs RR 28.8

Flow rate

17

Water temperature Rubicon River mile 25.3Water temperature Rubicon River mile 25.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 228

Obs - RR 25.3

Flow rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 228

Obs - RR 25.3

Flow rate

RR 25.3 hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max-0.30 -0.30 -1.02 0.160.79 0.42 1.15 0.541.47 0.58 1.40 0.672927 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

18

Water temperature Rubicon River mile 22.7Water temperature Rubicon River mile 22.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 397

Obs - RR 22.7

Flow rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 397

Obs - RR 22.7

Flow rate

RR 22.7 hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max-0.10 -0.10 0.39 -0.330.74 0.40 0.62 0.441.35 0.51 1.08 0.582927 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

19

Water temperature Rubicon River mile 22.5Water temperature Rubicon River mile 22.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 410

Obs - RR 22.5

Flow rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wat

er te

mpe

ratu

re (o

C)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate (

cfs)

Sim - Node 410

Obs - RR 22.5

Flow rate

RR 22.5 hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max0.01 0.01 0.51 -0.340.60 0.33 0.64 0.381.00 0.42 1.09 0.492927 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

20

Water temperature Rubicon River mile 14.3Water temperature Rubicon River mile 14.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 942Obs - RR 14.3Flow rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 942Obs - RR 14.3Flow rate

RR 14.3 hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max0.95 0.95 1.67 0.101.39 1.06 1.72 0.621.81 1.19 2.08 0.812927 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

21

Water temperature Rubicon River mile 5.3Water temperature Rubicon River mile 5.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 1525

Obs - RR 5.3

Flow rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 1525

Obs - RR 5.3

Flow rate

RR 5.3 hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max-0.18 -0.18 -0.32 0.070.65 0.54 0.69 0.601.33 0.71 1.47 0.752927 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

22

Water temperature Rubicon River mile 3.7Water temperature Rubicon River mile 3.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 1629

Obs - RR 3.7Flow rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 1629

Obs - RR 3.7Flow rate

RR 3.7 hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max-0.51 -0.51 -0.71 -0.220.70 0.61 0.94 0.621.29 0.79 1.58 0.782927 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

23

Water temperature Rubicon River mile 0.7Water temperature Rubicon River mile 0.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

6/1/07 6/21/07 7/11/07 7/31/07 8/20/07 9/9/07 9/29/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 1823Obs - RR 0.7Flow rate

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8/1/07 8/6/07 8/11/07 8/16/07 8/21/07

Date - Time

Wate

r te

mpera

ture

(oC

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Flo

w r

ate

(cfs

)

Sim - Node 1823Obs - RR 0.7Flow rate

RR 0.7 hrly Dly avg Dly min Dly max0.21 0.22 -0.07 0.360.88 0.77 0.94 0.862.33 2.13 2.51 2.272927 122 122 122

Mean BiasMean absolute error (MAE)

Root mean squared error (RMSE)COUNT

24

Rubicon River: SummaryRubicon River: Summary

SummarySummary Effective representation of flow conditionsEffective representation of flow conditions Most locations simulated temperature are Most locations simulated temperature are

representativerepresentative

In ProgressIn Progress Refine travel time based on recent dataRefine travel time based on recent data Refine temperature calibration accordinglyRefine temperature calibration accordingly

25

OutlineOutline

Modeling Progress:Modeling Progress: Middle Fork Below RalstonMiddle Fork Below Ralston Rubicon RiverRubicon River Revisit Ralston ReservoirRevisit Ralston Reservoir

ScheduleSchedule

26

Ralston ReservoirRalston Reservoir

1

Oxbow PH

Ralston Afterbay

Middle Fork American River

Rubicon River

Ralston PH

1 Temperature Profile Location

27

RalstonRalston

28

Ralston water levels, 2006Ralston water levels, 2006

Ralston Reservoir observed and simulated water surface elevation, 2006

1150

1160

1170

1180

6/1

6/1

5

6/2

9

7/1

3

7/2

7

8/1

0

8/2

4

9/7

9/2

1

10

/5

Date

Wa

ter

su

rfa

ce

ele

va

tio

n (

ft)

Observed

Simulated

29

Ralston water levels, 2007Ralston water levels, 2007

Ralston Reservoir observed and simulated water surface elevations, 2007

1165

1167

1169

1171

1173

1175

1177

1179

6/1

6/1

5

6/2

9

7/1

3

7/2

7

8/1

0

8/2

4

9/7

9/2

1

Date

Wa

ter

surf

ace

ele

vatio

n (

ft)

Observed

Simulated

30

Ralston water temperature, Ralston water temperature, 20062006

Water temperature (oC)Water temperature (oC)Water temperature (oC)

Ele

vatio

n (f

t)

Ele

vatio

n (f

t)

Ele

vatio

n (f

t)

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

July 06 Aug 08 Sep 30

Tunnel Elevation

Stream Maintenance

Low Level

31

Ralston water temperature, Ralston water temperature, 20072007

Ele

vatio

n (f

t)

Ele

vatio

n (f

t)

Ele

vatio

n (f

t)

Ele

vatio

n (m

)

Ele

vatio

n (f

t)

Water temperature (oC) Water temperature (oC)Water temperature (oC)Water temperature (oC)Water temperature (oC)

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

1181

1164

1148

1132

1115

June 07 July 11 July 31 Sep 06 Sep 25

Low Level

Tunnel Elevation

Stream Maintenance

32

Estimated ScheduleEstimated Schedule

Draft calibration for all system elements Draft calibration for all system elements (Target: July 1)(Target: July 1)

System-wide calibration and draft model System-wide calibration and draft model documentation (Target: August 1)documentation (Target: August 1)

System-wide calibration approach System-wide calibration approach (revisited)(revisited)

33

Model Simulation:Approach

2

4

10

1

3

11

8

6

7

9

5

Reservoir: CE-QUAL-W2

River: RMA-2 and RMA-11

Tunnel: Tunnel Model

34

Questions?Questions?