june 7, 2004 prepared for: san diego county regional airport authority san diego international...

June 7, 2004

Prepared for:

San Diego County Regional Airport Authority

San Diego International AirportAVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Board Presentation

2

Background

San Diego is the Only Major U.S. Airport that Operates With a Single Runway

Current Flight Volume Can Be Accommodated With Existing Runway Capacity, but the Ability to Handle Future Growth is Limited

SH&E Was Asked to Prepare Aviation Demand Forecasts to Estimate When San Diego International Airport (SDIA) Will Reach Its Runway Capacity Limits

3

The SDIA Activity Forecasts Have Been Subject to an Extensive Process of Internal and External Review

San Diego CountyRegional Airport Authority

Federal Aviation Administration

San Diego Air Traffic Control Tower

Southern California TRACON

Western Pacific Region(Richard Dykas)

Office of Operations Planning Performance Analysis

(Don Guffey)

Office of Aviation Policy & Plans(Roger Schaufele)SANDAG

Planning

Airside Operations

Airport Noise

Facilities Development

Site Selection Study Team

Population & Economic Forecasts(Regional Demographers)

4

Passenger Airlines Represent the Primary Source of Demandfor Runway Capacity at SDIA

Large Passenger Airlines

71%

Military1%Civil

8%All-Cargo

3%

Regional Airlines18%

2003 Aircraft Operations

Source: SDIA Airport Operations Department, Monthly Activity Report, December 2003

Scheduled Passenger Airlines

89%

Scheduled Passenger Airlines

89%

Future Growth in Passenger Traffic and Airline Operations Will Represent the Driving Factor in Determining SDIA’s Ability to Accommodate Future Demand

5

Agenda

Aviation Activity Forecasts

– Passenger Traffic

– Airline Operations

– Cargo Operations

– General Aviation Operations

– Military Operations

Runway Capacity and Delay Analysis

Forecast Conclusions

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Passenger Traffic

7

The Passenger Traffic Forecast Reflects 4 Key Elements

Market Characteristics

Past GrowthPerformance

Growth Drivers

Forecast Assumptions

Passenger Traffic

Forecast

Passenger Traffic

Forecast

8

Understanding the Characteristics of San Diego PassengersWill Influence the Forecast of Future Demand

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Source: US DOT, O&D Passenger Survey, YE 3Q 2002; San Diego 1998 Customer Satisfaction Survey; San Diego 1998 Total Airport Experience Survey

Resident (45%)

Business (44%)

Visitor (55%)

Non-Business (56%)

Connecting

International

Passenger Mix at SDIA

Local (96%)

Domestic (98%)

9

Since 1980, San Diego Passenger Traffic Has Tripled

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Inte rnational

Dom estic

Annual Passengers at SDIAAnnual Passengers at SDIAAnnual

Passengers(In Millions)

* US growth based on preliminary 2003 traffic statistics from Air Transport Association

Source: San Diego Unified Port District Statistics, SAN Master Plan Update, and SH&E Analysis

* US growth based on preliminary 2003 traffic statistics from Air Transport Association

Source: San Diego Unified Port District Statistics, SAN Master Plan Update, and SH&E Analysis

Avg. Annual Growth1980–2003

SDIA 4.9%U.S. * 3.4%

5.1 M

200015.8 M 2003

15.3 M

10

However, San Diego Passenger Growth Rates Have Been Tapering Downward

Passenger Growth Rates Over Consecutive 10-Year Periods

1980-2003

Passenger Growth Rates Over Consecutive 10-Year Periods

1980-2003

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority

SDIA Passengers

Begin End

1980 - 1990 5.2 11.2 8.0%1981 - 1991 5.0 11.5 8.6%1982 - 1992 5.6 12.1 8.0%1983 - 1993 6.6 11.9 6.2%1984 - 1994 7.2 13.0 6.1%1985 - 1995 8.0 13.4 5.2%

1986 - 1996 9.2 13.9 4.2%1987 - 1997 10.1 14.4 3.6%1988 - 1998 10.8 14.9 3.3%1989 - 1999 11.2 15.3 3.2%1990 - 2000 11.2 15.8 3.5%

1991 - 2001 11.5 15.2 2.8%1992 - 2002 12.1 14.9 2.1%1993 - 2003 11.9 15.3 2.5%

(millions) AverageYear Annual Growth

11

Slowing Growth in SDIA Passenger Traffic Can Be Traced to the Performance of the Economy

Average Annual Growth in Personal Income

1980-2000

Average Annual Growth in Personal Income

1980-2000

3.8%

2.6%3.1% 3.1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1980-1990 1990-2000

San Diego U.S.

Source: SANDAG; National Planning Associates

12

Slower Growth in Air Visitors Has Also Contributed to Reduced Passenger Growth at SDIA

Average Annual Growth in SDIA Domestic O&D PassengersAverage Annual Growth in SDIA Domestic O&D Passengers

4.5%

0.3%

2.5%

0.5%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

1997-2002

1990-1997

Resident

Visitor

Source: US DOT, O&D Survey

13

Rapid Expansion of Low-Fare Carriers Has Stimulated Traffic Growth at SDIA – In 1990, Five Markets Had Low-Fare Carrier Service from San Diego

August 1990

WN = Southwest

HP = America West

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes

WN WN

WN HP

WN HP

WN

14

May 2004

Source: OAG Schedule Tapes

Currently, SDIA Receives Low-Fare Carrier Service to 17 Markets, Including New East Coast Destinations

SanJose

Sacramento

Oakland

Reno

Phoenix

Albuquerque Nashville

New Orleans

Denver

Austin

El Paso

SAN

Minneapolis

KansasCity

ChicagoMDW

Baltimore

New York JFK

Las VegasWNWN

WN

SY

WN HP

WN HP

WN

F9

WN

WN

WN WN

WN

WN

WN

B6

WN = Southwest

HP = America West

SY = Sun Country

F9 = Frontier

B6 = jetBlueWN

15

In 2003, Low-Fare Airlines Carried 45% of SDIA Domestic Passengers

2003 Domestic Passenger Share at SDIA

Low-Fare Carriers

Low-Fare Carriers

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority

16

San Diego has a Higher Proportion of Low Fare Service than the U.S. as a Whole, but Low-Fare Carriers are Rapidly Gaining Share in the U.S. Market

24%

31% 32%

38%

44%41%

43% 42% 43% 42% 41% 40%43%

46%48%

28%26%

24%23%22%21%19%18%18%16%

14%12%

10%10%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Aug90

Aug91

Aug92

Aug93

Aug94

Aug95

Aug96

Aug97

Aug98

Aug99

Aug00

Aug01

Aug02

Aug03

May04

San Diego Total US

Share of Non-Stop Seats by Low Fare Carriers

1990 - 2004

Share of Non-Stop Seats by Low Fare Carriers

1990 - 2004

Source: OAG Schedule TapesSource: OAG Schedule Tapes

Pct of Non-Stop Seats

17

SDIA’s High and Low Forecasts Reflect Differing Views of the Future

Assumption High Low

Real Personal Income Growth

+ 2.4% per year(SANDAG 2003 Forecast plus 10%)

+ 2.2% per year(SANDAG 2003 Forecast)

Change in Real Average Fare

-0.3% per year(Half the U.S. Rate)

-0.3% per year(Half the U.S. Rate)

Post-9/11 Recovery

Partial Recovery from 2004 to 2006 No Recovery from 2004 to 2006

Business Travel Substitution, e.g., Videoconferencing

No Increase in Business Travel Substitution

Substitutes Capture 15% of Business Passengers by 2014

International Route Development

Aggressive – Service to 3 European Hubs and 1 Asian Gateway by 2015

Moderate – Service to 2 European Hubs by 2015

High and Low Forecast AssumptionsHigh and Low Forecast Assumptions

18

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

Historic

SH&E High

SH&E Low

M aster Plan / AEA

SH&E Forecasts Unconstrained Passengers to Grow from 15.3M in 2003 to Between 27M and 33M by 2030

Average Annual Growth(Base 2002 – 2030)

SH&E High 2.8%

SH&E Low 2.2%

Total San Diego Passengers

Sources: SH&E AnalysisSan Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB

Airport Economic Analysis (AEA), HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001

AnnualPassengers

32.7 M

27.1 M

2003 Actual15.3 M

19

Translating the Passenger Forecast into Aircraft Operations Requires an Assessment of Two Key Factors

Passenger Traffic Forecast

AircraftOperations

Future AircraftFleet Mix –

Average SeatsPer Aircraft

LoadFactors –Percent of

Seats Occupied

20

Narrowbody Jets are the Predominate Aircraft Type in the Current Passenger Airline Fleet Mix at SDIA

Regional Jets0.4%

Turboprop20.3%

Jet Over 2502.4%

Jet 151-25011.8%

Passenger Airline Operations by Aircraft Class

Base Year 2002

Source: US DOT, T100 Database

Jet 100-150 Seats

65.2%

Jet 100-150 Seats

65.2%

21

Factors that Will Influence the Future Fleet at SDIA

Aircraft Size for Southwest Airlines, the Leading Carrier at SDIA,Will Not Increase

– All aircraft orders are for the 137-Seat Boeing 737-700

jetBlue Is Expected to Increase Its Presence at SDIA

– Currently serves SDIA with 160-seat A-320’s, the only large jet aircraft in its current fleet

– Potential for future growth with 100-seat EMB-190 regional jets (deliveries starting 2005)

Regional Jets (RJ) Are Expected to Replace Turboprops on the SAN-LAX Route

Significant RJ Expansion in Other Markets Will Be Limited by the Presence of Low-Cost Carriers

Orders of Other Major SDIA Carriers Are Focused on Narrowbody Jets

22

Aircraft Size at SDIA is Projected to Increase Slowly Over the Forecast Period

106

124 120 125 128 130

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 2000 Base Year2002

2010 2020 2030

Average Seats per Aircraft

Source: US DOT, T100 and SH&E

23

San Diego Load Factors Are Among the Highest in the Nation

Average Domestic Load Factors at U.S. Large Hub Airports

2003

Average Domestic Load Factors at U.S. Large Hub Airports

2003

Source: US DOT T100 DatabankSource: US DOT T100 Databank

L.F. L.F. Rank Airport Rank Airport

1 Las Vegas 76.7% 16 Miam i 69.9%2 Orlando 76.5% 17 Salt Lake City 69.5%3 Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood 74.6% 18 Dallas/Fort W orth 69.4%4 San Diego 74.4% 19 New York Newark 68.9%5 Atlanta 73.4% 20 W ashington Dulles 68.4%6 Denver 73.1% 21 Minneapolis 67.6%7 Phoenix 73.1% 22 Detroit 67.0%8 New York J F Kennedy 72.9% 23 Boston 66.7%9 Houston Intercontinental 72.6% 24 Chicago Midway 66.5%

10 Tam pa 72.5% 25 Cincinnati 66.5%11 Seattle/Tacom a 72.1% 26 Charlotte 66.0%12 Chicago O 'Hare 72.1% 27 New York La Guardia 66.0%13 Los Angeles 72.0% 28 Philadelphia 65.0%14 Baltim ore 71.1% 29 St. Louis 64.5%15 San Francisco 70.4% 30 Pittsburgh 61.2%

All Large Hubs 70.4%

LoadFactor

LoadFactor

24

Load Factors Are Projected to Increase Nationally, But High Current Load Factors Will Limit Future Increases at SDIA

Load Factor Assumptions

63.3%

72.9% 74.4% 75.7% 76.8% 76.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1990 Base Year2002

2003 * 2010 2020 2030

Source: US DOT, T100 Database; SH&E

* 2003 load factor is for domestic flights only.

25

SH&E Forecasts Airline Operations to Grow by 1.6% to 2.3% Annually, Moderately Below the Growth in Passenger Traffic

Forecast SDIA Passenger Airline Operations

Actual and Forecast

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

High Low


Low High

Psgr AirlineOperations 1.6% 2.3%

PassengerTraffic 2.2% 2.8%

327,000

273,000

Actual 2003172,520

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Cargo, General Aviation and Military Operations

27

Continued Strong Growth in Cargo Tonnage is Forecast in Both the High and Low Forecast Scenarios

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Historic

High Forecast

Low Forecast

Average Annual Growth

Historic: 1980-1990 9.5%1990-2003 6.5%

High LowForecast: Base 2002 - 2030 4.8% 3.9%

San Diego Cargo Tons (Enplaned + Deplaned)

Sources: SH&E Analysis

622,100

487,100

Actual 2003154,600

28

Cargo Operations are Projected to Grow Slower than Cargo Tonnage Due to Increasing Aircraft Capacity

Forecast All-Cargo Operations at SDIA

5,100

8,800

11,500

4,700

6,700

9,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2002 2003 2010 2020 2030

Low High

Average Annual Growth(2002 – 2030)

Low High

Cargo Operations 2.4% 3.3%

Cargo Tonnage 3.9% 4.8%

4,6004,900

29

Only 2% of the Region’s General Aviation Operations Occur at SDIA

Montgomery25%

Carlsbad20%

Gillespie19%

Brown13%

Ramona11%

SDIA2%

Other2%

Oceanside8%

San Diego County GA Operations by Airport Facility

2002

Source: FAA, Terminal Area Forecast, 2003Source: FAA, Terminal Area Forecast, 2003

30

GA Traffic at SDIA is Forecast to Grow at Less than 2% Annually

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

High Forecast

Low Forecast

Historic GA

Historic and Forecast GA Operations

1990-2030

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&ESource: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&E

Year

Annual Operations

ForecastHistoric 25,000

19,600

Actual 2003

14,500

31

Military Operations Represent 1% of Current SDIA Flight Activity and Were Held Constant Over the Forecast Period

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Historic and Forecast Military Operations

1970-2030

Source: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&ESource: San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Records; SH&E

Year

ForecastHistoric

Annual Operations

1,100

32

Unconstrained Aircraft Operations Are Forecast to Grow from Approximately 200,000 to Between 303,000 and 365,000 in 2030

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Total Unconstrained Aircraft Operations Forecast for SDIA

Source: SH&E Analysis

Aircraft Operations

High Low

303,000

365,000


SH&E High 2.3%

SH&E Low 1.6%

SH&E Performed a Capacity Analysis to Identify When SDIA’s Single Runway Will No Longer Be Able to Accommodate Growth in Demand

RUNWAY CAPACITY ANALYSIS

34

Rwy 09 or

09/27 IFR

3.5% Rwy 27 IFR

25.5%

Rwy 27 VFR

71.0%

Runway Capacity Analysis Indicates San Diego Can Handle 55 Operations per Hour Under VFR Weather Conditions

3640

49

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Rwy 27VFR

Rwy 27IFR

Rwy 09IFR

Rwy09/27IFR

Hourly Runway Capacity

2030

Hourly Runway Capacity

2030

VFR = Visual Flight Rules

IFR = Instrument Flight Rules

Note: Hourly Balanced Flow Capacity for Future SDIA Fleet Mix

Rwy 09 or 09/27 IFR

3.5%

Percentage of Time Configuration UsedPercentage of Time Configuration Used

Runway 27 VFR 1,200 feet 3 miles

Runway 27 IFR 700 feet 2 miles

Runway 09 or 09/27 IFR 400 feet 1 mile

Configuration Ceiling Visibility

Approach Minima

35

San Diego Currently Experiences Minimal Delays as Demand is Well Below Capacity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Hour

Average Weekday Flights vs. Capacity

2003 Conditions


2003 Conditions

Rwy 27 VFR Capacity – 55

Rwy 27 IFR Capacity – 49

Hourly Flights

36

In 2010, San Diego Will Still Have Sufficient Runway Capacity to Accommodate Flight Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23


2010 High Growth Scenario


2010 High Growth ScenarioHourly Flights



Hour

2010

2003

37

By 2020, SDIA Will Experience Severe Capacity Pressures Under the High Growth Scenario


2020 High Growth Scenario(Unconstrained)



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Hourly Flights



Hour

2020

2010

2003

38

Forecast Flight Demand in 2030 is Well Above the Capacity of SDIA’s Single Runway





0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Hourly Flights



Hour

2030

2020

2010

2003

FORECAST CONCLUSIONS

40

At Approximately 260,000 Annual Operations, Runway Congestion and Delays Will Begin to Constrain Growth in Flight Activity at SDIA

SH&E Forecasts that SDIA Will Reach 260,000 Aircraft Operations Between 2015 (High) and 2022 (Low)

At 300,000 Annual Operations, Severe Runway Congestion Will Eliminate Further Growth (Between 2021 and 2030)

Investments in the SDIA Gate and Taxiway Systems Will be Required to Reach These Levels

41

There Are No Simple Remedies to Address a Significant Capacity Shortfall

Hypothetical Solution

Adjust Schedule Timing to “Smooth” Hourly Demand Pattern

Increase Load Factors

Substitute Larger Aircraft

Forecast SDIA Load Factor (approx. 77%) is Higher Than Almost All Large Hubs Today and is Approaching Natural Limits

No Evidence of Higher Load Factors at HeavilyDelayed Airports

Expected Impact

Limited Benefit Given Relatively Flat Current Pattern. There Are No Low Delay Periods During Normal Operating Day (of High Activity Scenarios)

Curfew and Passenger Preferences PrecludeExtending Operating Day

Larger Aircraft Size Observed at Highly Delayed Airports

Some Benefit, but Limited by Composition of Carrier Fleets

42

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

The SH&E Forecast Extends the Time Frame in Which Key Activity Thresholds Will be Reached by 7 to 14 Years

Comparison of Operations Forecasts for SDIA

Note: Operating Thresholds Based on SH&E Capacity/Delay Analysis and FAA GuidelinesSources: SH&E Analysis San Diego International Airport Master Plan Final Report – June 2001, HNTB, (Analysis base year: 1996)

Airport Economic Analysis, HR&A with Landrum and Brown, January 2001, (Analysis base year: 1998)

260,000 Operations

2003

Severe Congestion

Actual Master Plan

Aircraft Operations

300,000 Operations

43

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030



260,000 Operations

2003

2008

Severe Congestion

Actual Master Plan

Airport EconomicAnalysis

Aircraft Operations

300,000 Operations



44

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030



260,000 Operations

2003

2008

2015

Severe Congestion

Actual Master Plan


SH&E High

Aircraft Operations

300,000 Operations



45

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030



260,000 Operations

2003

2008

2015

2022

Severe Congestion

Actual Master Plan


SH&E High

SH&E Low

Aircraft Operations

300,000 Operations



46

Limited Runway Capacity Will Cause an Estimated Loss of Between 1.0 Million and 4.4 Million Passengers in 2030

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

UnconstrainedConstrained

Passenger loss is approximately ~1.0M (or 3.8%) in 2030

Cumulative passenger loss of 5.0M (2022-2030)

Low Growth Scenario

27.1 m

26.1 m

Divergence in 2022 at 23M Psgrs

Low Growth ScenarioForecast SDIA Passengers (millions)

Low Growth ScenarioForecast SDIA Passengers (millions)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

UnconstrainedConstrained

Year

High Growth Scenario

32.7 m

28.2 m

Divergence in 2015 at 23M Psgrs

Passenger loss is approximately ~4.4M (or 13.6%) in 2030

Cumulative passenger loss of 31.3M (2015-2030)

High Growth ScenarioForecast SDIA Passengers (millions)

High Growth ScenarioForecast SDIA Passengers (millions)

47

Findings and Conclusions

Passenger Airlines are the Principal Driver of Total Aircraft Operations at SDIA

Passenger Traffic at SDIA is Forecast to Grow from 15.3 Million Passengers in 2003 to Between 27 and 33 Million in 2030

Historically, Increases in Aircraft Size and Load Factors at SDIA Permitted Strong Passenger Growth Without a Commensurate Increase in the Number of Aircraft Operations

However, High Current Load Factors and Aircraft Fleet Trends Indicate that, Over the Forecast Period, SDIA Aircraft Operations Will Grow at Rates that Approach the Underlying Rate of Passenger Growth

As a Result, SDIA Aircraft Operations are Forecast to Increase From Approximately 200,000 Flights in 2003 up to Between 303,000 and 365,000 Flights in 2030 (Unconstrained)

48

Findings and Conclusions cont’d.

While SDIA Can Accommodate Current Flight Activity, the Single Runway Has Insufficient Capacity to Handle the Forecast Growth in Aircraft Operations

Runway Capacity will Begin to Constrain Growth at 260,000 Operations—Approximately 30% Above Current Levels—Occurring Between 2015 and 2022

At 300,000 Annual Operations—Occurring Between 2021 and 2030—Runway Congestion will Eliminate Further Growth

Investments in the SDIA Gate and Taxiway Systems (Additional Gates and Taxiway Improvements) Will be Required to Reach these Levels

If Additional Runway Capacity is Not Provided, San Diego Will Experience a Cumulative Loss of At Least 5 Million Passengers (Low Growth Scenario) and As Many As 31 Million Passengers (High Growth Scenario) Over the Forecast Period

june 7, 2004 prepared for: san diego county regional airport authority san diego international...

Documents

san diego passenger

sdia passenger traffic

background san diego

reduced passenger growth

future growth

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sdia average annual

stimulated traffic growth