june july 2019 - iri · • in addition to the above described pps sample, less populous states...

Public Opinion Survey: Myanmar

June – July 2019

Detailed Methodology

• Data was collected between June 19 and July 14, 2019 by Myanmar Survey Research (MSR) under the

supervision of the International Republican Institute.

• A multi-stage sampling approach was designed to yield a nationally representative sample of the

population aged 18 and older, with the following stages of sampling:

• Stratification of 18+ population into states and regions according to PPS (probability

proportionate to size) design;

• Stratification of urban and rural in each state and region according to PPS design;

• PPS selections of townships and random selection of wards and villages within each stratum to

constitute sampling points;

• Random selection of households within each selected sampling point via random walk;

• Random selection of respondents within each selected household via KISH grid.

• In addition to the above described PPS sample, less populous states were allocated booster samples to

allow for analysis by state level. Each state had a minimum of n=200 interviews. Any oversamples were

weighted back down to their national proportion for national level analysis. The total sample size was

n=4,030.

• Multiple townships in Rakhine, Shan and Kachin states were excluded from the sample due to ongoing

conflict. The excluded population totals 1.04 million.

• The margin of error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for national level analysis.

• The overall response rate for this study is 63%.

• Charts and tables may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• Data and bases cited in this presentation are weighted for State/Region, Urban/Rural, Gender, Age and

Education. 2

https://www.iri.org/

State/Region Level, Unweighted Sample Size, and Margin of Error

3

State/Region Sample Size: “n”Margin of Error

(denoted as +/- percentage

points)

Kachin 200 6.9

Kayah 200 6.9

Kayin 200 6.9

Chin 200 6.9

Shan 280 5.9

Sagaing 330 5.4

Bago 300 5.7

Magway 250 6.2

Mandalay 400 4.9

Nay Pyi Taw 200 6.9

Rakhine 200 6.9

Yangon 490 4.4

Mon 200 6.9

Ayeyarwaddy 380 5.0

Tanintharyi 200 6.9

Conflict-Affected Areas Excluded from the Sample

4

Frequently Cited Bases (Weighted)

5

Base “n”

Gender Male 1,893

Female 2,137

Age Group

18-35 1,719

36-55 1,584

56+ 727

Education

Illiterate/No schooling/

Monastic schooling/

Incomplete primary

937

Primary 1,557

Middle 897

High school or higher 638

Outlook

In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

7

88%

75% 77%

6%

17% 19%

7% 8% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb 2014 Apr 2017 Jul 2019

In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer

In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

8

77%

89%

88%

87%

86%

85%

84%

83%

80%

77%

76%

72%

72%

69%

65%

65%

Total

Magway

Ayeyarwaddy

Chin

Kayin

Kayah

Mon

Bago

Sagaing

Tanintharyi

Kachin

Nay Pyi Taw

Shan

Yangon

Mandalay

Rakhine

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percentage of respondents stating “in the right direction.”

In general, why do you think that things are heading in the right direction?

9

50%

18%15% 14%

7%5% 5% 5%

14%

8%

Roads arebeing pavedand bridgesare being

built

Improvedeconomicconditions

Improvededucation

system

Increasedaccess toelectricity

More jobs People canspeak theirminds about

politics

Improvedagriculture

sector

Improvedhealthcare

Other Don't know/Refused to

answer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Only responses named by at least 5% of respondents are displayed. Among n=3,096 respondents who think things are heading in the right direction, spontaneous reply, multiple responses accepted.

In general, why do you think that things are heading in the wrong direction?

10

27%

25%

17%

15%

10%

7%6% 6%

21%

2%

Pooreconomicconditions

Higherprices

Crime isworse

Fewer jobs Ethnicviolence

Securityhas

declined

Politicalproblems

Drug useand trade

Other Don'tknow/

Refused toanswer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Only responses named by at least 5% of respondents are displayed.

Among n=747 respondents who think things are heading in the wrong direction, spontaneous reply, multiple responses

accepted.

How would you describe the current economic situation in the country?

11

85%

64%61%

12%

30%34%

3% 3%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb 2014 Apr 2017 Jul 2019

Somewhat or very good Somewhat or very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

How would you describe the current economic situation in the country?

12

10%

19%

18%

17%

14%

13%

13%

13%

10%

10%

9%

9%

9%

7%

5%

5%

51%

55%

53%

50%

61%

45%

47%

44%

65%

64%

59%

42%

51%

31%

60%

45%

25%

13%

23%

20%

20%

25%

12%

28%

18%

21%

21%

28%

27%

35%

25%

32%

9%

6%

5%

10%

2%

6%

26%

10%

5%

4%

6%

11%

9%

21%

10%

13%

5%

6%

1%

4%

4%

10%

2%

6%

2%

1%

4%

9%

5%

5%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total

Chin

Mon

Tanintharyi

Kayin

Shan

Rakhine

Nay Pyi Taw

Magway

Ayeyarwaddy

Sagaing

Mandalay

Bago

Kachin

Kayah

Yangon

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

13

3%

67%

22%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad

How would you describe the current economic situation of your household?

Thinking now about your personal economic situation, compared to a year ago, has it improved, stayed the same or worsened?

14

39%

48%

47%

45%

42%

40%

38%

38%

38%

38%

37%

37%

37%

35%

33%

25%

36%

30%

31%

42%

35%

37%

39%

43%

43%

33%

36%

36%

31%

41%

43%

36%

24%

21%

22%

13%

23%

23%

22%

19%

19%

29%

27%

27%

32%

23%

24%

40%

1%

1%

<1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total

Ayeyarwaddy

Sagaing

Chin

Mon

Kayin

Shan

Nay Pyi Taw

Magway

Mandalay

Rakhine

Bago

Tanintharyi

Yangon

Kayah

Kachin

Improved Stayed the same Worsened Don't know/Refused to answer

15

20%

14%17%

54%

57%54%

20%20%

18%

8% 9%11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Feb 2014 Apr 2017 Jul 2019

Living comfortably on present income Getting by on present income

Finding it difficult on present income Finding it very difficult on present income

Which one of these phrases comes closest to your own feelings about your household’s income these days?

Corruption

17

13%

5%

8%

73%

It has had a lot of negative impact It has had some negative impact

It has had little negative impact It has not had any negative impact

To what extent, if any, has corruption had a negative impact on you?

18

1%

4%

95%

Monthly Less frequently Not at all

In the past 12 months, how often, if at all, have you had to do a favor, give a gift or pay a bribe?

Priority Policy Issues and Government Performance

What is the most important problem facing our country today?

20

26%

16%

15%

11%

11%

10%

9%

6%

Economy (Cost of Living, High Prices)

Economy (Unemployment)

Internal Conflicts

Economy (Other/General)

Crime/Public Safety

Ethnic Conflict

No Problem

Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Only problems named by at least 10% of respondents are displayed. 13% did not know or refused to answer this question. Spontaneous reply, combined top three mentions.

What is the most important problem facing our country today?

21

24%

18%

17%

13%

12%

Economy (Cost of Living/High Prices)

Internal Conflicts


Ethnic Conflict


0% 10% 20% 30%

28%

15%

12%

11%

9%

Economy (Cost of Living/High Prices)


Crime/Public Safety

Internal Conflicts


0% 10% 20% 30%

Spontaneous reply, top five problems named by each gender.

On each of these issues, would you say that they are a serious problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem at all?

22

86%

69%

62%

58%

58%

55%

55%

53%

52%

49%

46%

44%

44%

44%

41%

34%

Illicit drug use

Crime

Corruption

Unemployment

Environmental issues

Price increases

Land grabbing

Insufficient healthcare

Ethnic conflict

Low income

Education quality

Insufficient housing

Lack of infrastructure

Sectarian conflict

Insufficient support to farmers

Insufficient democratic reforms

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Environmental issues: illegal logging, domestic trash, etc. Lack of infrastructure: water and sanitation, electricity, roads, etc.

Percentage of respondents stating, “serious problem.”

23

Problem 1 Problem 2 Problem 3

Kachin Illicit drug use (91%) Crime (73%) Corruption (66%)

Kayah Illicit drug use (91%) Crime (76%) Land grabbing (76%)

Kayin Illicit drug use (86%) Crime (63%) Land grabbing (59%)

Chin Illicit drug use (77%) Lack of infrastructure (68%) Unemployment (68%)

Sagaing Illicit drug use (89%) Crime (64%) Corruption (62%)

Tanintharyi Illicit drug use (84%) Land grabbing (58%) Crime (58%)

Bago Illicit drug use (85%) Crime (69%) Unemployment (59%)

Magway Illicit drug use (81%) Crime (61%) Corruption (58%)

Mandalay Illicit drug use (96%) Crime (84%) Corruption (79%)

Mon Illicit drug use (86%) Corruption (67%) Crime (65%)

Rakhine Illicit drug use (91%) Ethnic conflict (73%) Crime (72%)

Yangon Illicit drug use (88%) Crime (78%) Corruption (71%)

Shan Illicit drug use (79%) Land grabbing (56%) Crime (54%)

Ayeyarwaddy Illicit drug use (80%) Crime (69%) Environmental issues (56%)

Nay Pyi Taw Illicit drug use (93%) Crime (74%) Corruption (67%)

On each of these issues, would you say that they are a serious problem,

somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem at all?

Percentage of respondents stating “serious problem.” Only the three most frequently named serious problems per state displayed.

24

97%

94%

93%

93%

93%

92%

90%

87%

87%

86%

86%

86%

86%

84%

81%

79%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Development of roads, highways and bridges

Improving education

Delivering quality healthcare

Gender equality

Access to water, electricity and housing

The peace process

Democratic reforms

Land rights

Preserving the environment

Ending sectarian conflict

Employment

Ending ethnic conflict

Poverty reduction

Fighting crime

Fighting corruption

Controlling inflation

Now I am going to read [from a list of] various issues. Please rate the national government’s performance on each one.

Percentage of respondents rating performance as “somewhat” or “very” good.

Democracy and Political Parties

26

76%

16%

4% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Yes, it is the bestpossible form of

government for ourcountry

No, there are otherforms of governmentthat could be equallygood for our country

No, there are otherforms of governmentthat are better than

democracy

Don't know

Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for our country or not?

27

51%

48%

26%

19%

16%

32%

38%

26%

24%

22%

7%

5%

16%

19%

24%

5%

5%

23%

30%

32%

4%

5%

9%

8%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Democracy is the best form of government

Democracy may have problems, but it is betterthan any other form of government

Democracies are indecisive and have too muchsquabbling

Democracies aren't any good at maintaining lawand order

In a democracy, the economic system runs badly

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer

Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of these statements?

28

62%

31%

3%1% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Very important Somewhatimportant

Somewhatunimportant

Very unimportant Don't know/Refused to answer

How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country’s adult population—including women, youth, minorities, and people with disabilities—are included in political decision-

making?

29

40%

36%

27%

23%

16%

12%

20%

25%

22%

38%

45%

51%

35%

37%

48%

37%

35%

33%

5%

2%

3%

2%

4%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Candidate is from the party in power

Candidate is 35 years old or younger

Candidate is female

Candidate has a different ethnic background

Candidate has never held office before

Candidate is from an opposition party

More Less Doesn't matter Don't know/Refused to answer

For each attribute, please tell me if it would make you more likely or less likely to vote for the candidate, or if it does not

matter.

Are you a supporter of any political party?

30

51%47%

2%

Yes

No

Don't know/Refused toanswer


31

51%

58%

44%

54%

50%

44%

Total

Male

Female

Age 18-35

Age 36-55

Age 56+

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Percentage of respondents stating “yes” by gender and age.


32

51%

42%

50%

58%

54%

Total

Illiterate/No schooling/Monastic schooling/Incomplete

primary

Primary

Middle

High school or higher

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Percentage of respondents stating “yes” by education level.

Constitutional and Federal Issues

As of now, in order to amend the Constitution it would require the support of more than 75% of Parliament. Do you support or oppose

making it easier to amend the Constitution by changing this requirement?

34

43%

37%

4%

5%

11%Strongly support

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose


Would you support or oppose States/Regions having more control over their natural resources?

35

28%

23%15%

27%

6%

Strongly support

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose


Would you support or oppose States/Regions having more control over their natural resources?

36

52%

81%

79%

70%

70%

67%

61%

60%

59%

59%

57%

46%

45%

41%

38%

34%

41%

13%

20%

25%

26%

26%

35%

24%

32%

39%

36%

48%

55%

52%

53%

57%

6%

6%

1%

5%

4%

7%

4%

16%

9%

3%

7%

7%

6%

9%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total

Chin

Rakhine

Kayah

Tanintharyi

Kayin

Mon

Shan

Sagaing

Magway

Kachin

Yangon

Ayeyarwaddy

Mandalay

Bago

Nay Pyi Taw

Somewhat or strongly support Somewhat or strongly oppose Don't know/Refused to answer

Do you support giving the States/Regions more autonomy and power so that they can make decisions for themselves, or do you

think that all power and decisions should be centralized and made by the Union Government?

37

70%

22%

8%

Support centralized powerand decisions made by theUnion Government

Support more autonomyand power for states andregions


Do you support giving the States/Regions more autonomy and power so that they can make decisions for themselves, or do you

think that all power and decisions should be centralized and made by the Union Government?

38

70%

83%

82%

81%

80%

73%

73%

69%

67%

65%

64%

63%

53%

52%

51%

42%

22%

16%

14%

9%

18%

15%

17%

26%

22%

30%

31%

25%

36%

45%

34%

45%

8%

4%

10%

2%

12%

10%

5%

11%

5%

6%

12%

10%

4%

15%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total

Ayeyarwaddy

Nay Pyi Taw

Bago

Magway

Sagaing

Mandalay

Mon

Yangon

Kayah

Kachin

Tanintharyi

Kayin

Rakhine

Shan

Chin

Support centralized power and decisions made by the Union Government

Support more autonomy and power for States/Regions

Don't know/Refused to answer

<1%

Would you prefer that States/Regions elect their own Chief Minister, or would you prefer they be appointed by the Union Government?

39

53%39%

8%

Prefer Chief Minister beappointed by the uniongovernment

Prefer States/Regionselected their own ChiefMinister


Would you prefer that States/Regions elect their own Chief Minister, or would you prefer they be appointed by the Union

Government?

40

53%

64%

63%

57%

56%

54%

53%

52%

50%

48%

43%

42%

40%

39%

38%

36%

39%

33%

26%

35%

41%

45%

38%

37%

43%

43%

41%

50%

55%

48%

56%

61%

8%

3%

11%

8%

3%

1%

9%

10%

8%

9%

16%

8%

5%

13%

6%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Total

Magway

Bago

Mandalay

Mon

Ayeyarwaddy

Yangon

Sagaing

Nay Pyi Taw

Kayin

Shan

Kachin

Kayah

Chin

Tanintharyi

Rakhine

Prefer Chief Minister be appointed by the Union GovernmentPrefer States/Regions elected their own Chief MinisterDon't know/Refused to answer

Media Usage

How often do you use Facebook?

42

18%

5%

1% 1%

75%

31%

11%

2% 2%

54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Almost every day At least once a week At least once a month Rarely, if ever Never

Apr-17 Jul-19

When it comes to the content you see on Facebook, to what extent do you think it is true?

43

5%

55%

29%

3%

8%

2%

45% 46%

4% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

I think almost all ofit is true

I think most of it istrue

I think most of it isfalse

I think almost all ofit is false

Don't know/Refused to answer

Apr 2017 (n=745) Jul 2019 (n=1,834)

Among Facebook users.

Where do you most frequently get your news and information from?

44

32%

28%

17%

12%

4%

1% 1% 1% 1%

4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

TV Facebook Relatives,friends

Radio Newspapers Village head,community

leader

Internet Websites Other Don'tknow/Refused

to answer

Information sources named by less than 1% not displayed.


45

33%

29%

13%12%

7%

1%

3%

23%

36%

12%

20%

2%

4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Facebook TV Radio Relatives, friends Newspapers Other Don't know/Refused to answer

Male Female



46

45%

25%

14%

6%

4%2%

19%

37%

20%

14%

3% 4%6%

41%

15%

22%

6%

2%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Facebook TV Relatives, friends Radio Newspapers Other Don't know/Refused to answer

18 - 35 years old 36 - 55 years old 56+ years old


47

25%

30% 32%

8% 8%

4%

34%

16%

12%

0%

17%

28%

25%

19%

17%

2%1%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Feb 2014 Apr 2017 Jul 2019

TV Newspapers Radio Facebook Relatives, friends Internet


Demographics

Demographics

49

Gender

Male 47%Female 53%

Age

18-25 years 22%

26-40 years 35%

41-55 years 26%

More than 55 years 18%

ReligionBuddhism 92%

Christianity 6%

Islam/Muslim 2%

Hinduism 0%

Ethnicity

Bamar 70%

Kachin 1%

Kayin 6%

Kayah 0%

Shan 11%

Chin 3%

Mon 1%

Rakhine 5%

Myanmar Chinese 0%

Myanmar Indian

(Indian/Pakistani/

Bangladeshi/Nepali)2%

Other 2%

State/ Region

Ayeyarwaddy Region 12%

Bago 10%

Chin 1%

Kachin 3%

Kayah 1%

Kayin 3%

Magway 8%

Mandalay 13%

Mon 4%

Nay Pyi Taw 2%

Rakhine 4%

Sagaine 11%

Shan 11%

Thanintharyi 3%

Yangon 16%

Education Level

Illiterate 3%

No schooling - literate 2%

Monastic schooling 4%

Some Primary school 15%

Primary attainment

(Completed grade 5) 39%

Middle attainment


High school attainment


Vocational college/diploma 1%

Completed undergraduate degree or

higher 7%

Monthly Household Income

1 - 50,000 Kyat 4%

50,001 - 100,000 Kyat 12%

100,001 - 500,000 Kyat 70%

500,001 - 1,000,000 Kyat 10%

1,000,001 and above 3%

Don't know 1%

Location

Urban 32%

Rural 68% Ethnicity

Bamar 70%

Non-Bamar 30%

www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls

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202.408.9450 | [email protected]

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june july 2019 - iri · • in addition to the above described pps sample, less populous states...

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