just growth: inclusion and prosperity in america ’ s metropolitan regions
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Just Growth: Inclusion and Prosperity in America ’ s Metropolitan Regions. By Chris Benner, Associate Professor UC Davis July 26, 2012. Thanks to: Ford Foundation, Manuel Pastor and entire PERE/USC staff, Rosa Ramirez and Mateusz Filipski. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Just Growth: Inclusion and Prosperity in America’s Metropolitan Regions
By Chris Benner, Associate ProfessorUC Davis
July 26, 2012
Thanks to: Ford Foundation, Manuel Pastor and entire PERE/USC staff, Rosa Ramirez and Mateusz Filipski
Outline
Background: links between social equity and economic growth in regions
Conclusions: Implications for planning
Just Growth project: studying why and how equity is linked with growth at regional scale
Equity and efficiency trade-offs? Conventional wisdom in economics
Need for large-scale investmentShift from low to high productivity Incentives and motivation
New equity and growth synergies?Keynesian economicsCountries in the Global southRegions in the U.S.
Equity Matters at Regional Scale City-Suburb income gaps associated with stagnation in regional
income and jobs (Savitch et al. 1993)
Per capita income growth faster where poverty gaps and segregation lower (Pastor et al. 2000)
Income inequality associated with lower savings rates (linked with financial and social distress, including bankruptcies, high commute times, divorce) (Frank et al. 2010)
Racial inclusion and equality strongest predictor of four different measures of regional growth (Austrian et al. 2007)
Relationship between equity and growth is stronger in ‘weak-market’ regions than fast growth regions (Pastor and Benner 2008)
Fund for our Economic Future
Source: Fund for our Economic Future, North East Ohiohttp://www.futurefundneo.org/en/~/media/Files/Research/2007%20Dashboard%20of%20Economic%20Indicators.ashx
136 Metro areas, 4 growth measures, 9 broad indicators with 38 different variables
Just Growth key questions
Why is equity linked with growth? How are ‘just growth’ regions able to link
growth with equity? Steps in the analysis
Identify just growth regionsQuantitative analysis of factors predicting just
growth In-depth case studies
Identifying just growth regions…
Quadrant analysis: total of 72 national, and 72 in each of four census divisions, with little consistency
Index of growth and equity 1980-2000
Index of growth and equity 1980-2000
Testing for characteristics associated with Just Growth Multiple variables:
Employment/industrial composition (9)Geographic and distributional dimensions (8)Workforce demographics and housing (7) Interest in regional growth and/or justice (2)
Multiple modelsSimple correlations Multivariate regressionsLogit models
Top
Thir
d
16 19 29 Top
Thir
d
16 19 29
Mid
dle
Thir
d
16 22 26
Mid
dle
Thir
d
16 22 26
Bott
om
Thir
d
32 23 9
Bott
om
Thir
d
32 23 9
BottomThird
Middle Third
TopThird
BottomThird
Middle Third
TopThird
Justice Index--->
Grow
th In
dex
--->
Response Variable for the Just Growth Logit
Grow
th In
dex
--->
Justice Index--->
Response Variable for the Just Growth Multinomial Logit
Just GrowthRegions
Non-Just Growth
High Just Growth Regions
ModerateJust Growth Regions
Non-Just GrowthRegions
Just Growth Factors…1
Diversified economy State capital
Nashville, Columbus, Denver, Sacramento Public sector employment
Jacksonville, Sacramento Construction
Denver—link with public investment Manufacturing negatively correlated
Regional government/governanceJacksonville, Nashville City/County MergersKansas City MARC
Ratio of Principal City Employment to Suburban Employment
1980, 1990, 2000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
200019901980
Cleveland
Top 192 Metro Average
Nashville
Jacksonville
Just Growth Factors…2
Small portions of poorly educated population Better predictor of just growth than high portions of
highly educated population Minority Middle Class
Nashville
Building diverse epistemic communities
Like-minded networks of professionals whose authoritative claim to consensual knowledge provides them with unique source of power in decision-making processes. Processes of interaction (interpretation, knowledge generation, action) often institutionalized when there’s a need for repeated interactions over extended periods of time
In short: What you know and who you know it with Exemplary diverse examples
Jurisdictional ties Leadership Nashville Jacksonville Community Council Inc.
Founded in 1976, mostly volunteer, 1 staff Annual cohort chosen from applicants and nominations to
represent full diversity of the region $200 to participate, and scholarships available
Monthly day-long discussions focused on issues in Nashville
Government & Media Education Business & Labor Diversity
Quality of Life Criminal Justice Arts & entertainment
More than 200 alumni involved in hosting, planning, sponsoring, participating in events
No positions! Safe, sustained, deliberative dialogue
Founded in 1975 Multi-faceted community/participatory “think-tan
k” One of the earliest annual indicator projects
Annual studies on particular topics Volunteer citizen task force, facilitated by staff Broad consultative process Consensus based recommendations for action
Broadly shared priorities and sense of common destiny
Conclusions
Steady, ‘unspectacular’, collaborative regions producing long-term success
No silver bullet, but also diversity of opportunities—key is ties that help shape common destiny
Clear correlations between equity and growth within regions
