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2012 (not the movie):A Practical Guide to Disaster Risk and Preparedness


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Outline

A Physical and Human Geography Recalling Disasters in the Philippine Context Two Different Conceptual Frameworks Measuring Disaster Risk at the Manila

Observatory

The Practical Guide to Preparedness

A Physical and Human Geography


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150 years of Tracks up to Sept 2006-Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC, NASA

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Map_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_NoGIA_Adjust.png


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Seismicity of the Philippines

1990-2006

The Philippines is amongthe top ten countries ofthe world with a largeportion of their populationoccupying the lowelevation coastal zone orLECZ

More than 15 millionFilipinos live in LECZs

LECZ is defined as a

coastal zone < 10 meters

of elevation.


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Philippine Poverty Incidence in 2003, 2006, 2009 (NSCB)

Recalling Disasters in the Philippine Context


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Flood Map of Eastern Metro-Manila and Rizal


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AP Photo Philippine Coast Guard AP Photo

Ben Serrano

Nueva Ecija NLEX

Calumpit,Bulacan

Pedring

Two Different Conceptual Frameworks


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Hazard-based Conceptual Framework

A disaster is a situation or event which overwhelms localcapacity, necessitating a request to a national or

international level for external assistance; an unforeseenand sudden event that causes great damage destruction

and human suffering (CRED)

At least on criteria fulfilled:10 or more reported killed; 100more reported affected; declaration of state of

emergency; declaration of a state of emergency; call forinternational assistance

Source: Disaster Category Classification and Peril Terminology forOperational Purposes: Common Accord

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

Munich Reinsurance

Working Paper 264, October 2009

Vulnerabaility-based Conceptual Framework

Disaster Risk The potential losses in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets

and services , which could occur to a particular

community or a society over some specified future time

Source: http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology


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Disasters and Development Trends

Floods and storms cause the most Economic damage is increasingrapidly

the most economic damage, followed (18 times more since 1970)

by forest fires.

Jerry Velazquez,

Philippines experience more storms than The number of disaster events is

other hazards and they cause the highest increasing but the total number

number of deaths of deaths are decreasing

Jerry Velasquez, UNISDR

(2011)


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Vulnerability-based Disaster Risk: WorldRiskIndex

Jorn Birkman of U.N. University-Institute for Environmentaland Human Security defines disasters as :

the result of a complex interaction between a potentially damaging

physical event (e.g. floods, droughts, fire, earthquakes and storms ) andthe vulnerability of a society, its infrastructure, economy and

environment, which are determined by human behaviour .

Unlike current approaches which focus strongly on the analysis of thevarious natural hazards, the WorldRiskIndex, in addition to exposureanalysis focuses on the vulnerability of the population , i.e. itssusceptibility, its capacities to cope with and adapt to natural events aswell as consequences of climate change. Disaster risk is seen as a

function of exposure and vulnerability.

Vulnerability = susceptibility + lack of coping capacity +lack of adaptive capacity

Susceptibility - dependent on public infrastructure,

nutrition, income and the general economic framework

Lack of coping capacity - dependent on

governance , medical care and material security

Lack of adaptive capacity - related to future events

and climate change

Birkmans definition of Disaster Risk places the burden ofrisk on human decisions. These become developmentissues because choices are involved in deciding whereand when human lives, natural resources. properties andinfrastructure will be saved or lost.


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Data:Source UNU-EHS, based on the PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platforms , CReSIS , CIESIN and global databases , detailed information at www.WeltRisikoBericht.de

Measuring Disaster Risk at theManila Observatory


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Disaster Risk

Three factors are needed for a disaster to occur- Hazards(H), Exposure (E) and Vulnerability (V)

Vulnerability may be physical, environmental, functional orsocio-economic. These can exist in interdependent ways.

In the case of the Philippines, vulnerability is present beforethe hazard occurs

We are studying how climate change and other hazardswill affect poverty, food supply, shelter, sustainable watersupply and renewable energy

Understanding the nature and dynamics of humanvulnerability is the first step integrated risk analysis, coping

and building adapting capacity

Integrated risk analysis requires interdisciplinarycollaboration. This is the basis of our response

Principal Rules of DRR(Adapted from Mechanism of Natural Disaster Reduction, ADRC, 2005)

H

E V

R

Mitigate the Hazard

Minimize Exposure Decrease Vulnerability

RISKHAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY (UNDP 2004 and UNDRO 1979)


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HAZARDS

Climate/ Weather-Related

TyphoonRainfall

Temperature/ DroughtEl Nio/ La Nia

Sea Level Rise/ Storm Surge

Geophysical

EarthquakeEQ-Induced Landslide

Rainfall-Induced Landslide

Volcanic EruptionTsunamiFlooding

Human Induced-Ecological

DeforestationMining

Climate Change

Pollution

EXPOSURE

Population Density

Health and Nutrition

Education

Land Use/ Cover

River Basins, Water Resources

Regions and CriticalWatersheds

Types of Natural Habitat

Integrated Marine andTerrestrial Priorities

Critical Infrastructure

VULNERABILITY

Human Development Index

Poverty Indices

Women and Children

Elderly and Disabled

Hierarchy of Urban Centers

Socio-Economic Pressures

Regional Gross Value-Addedby Sector

Agri-Industrial Centers andGrowth Network Corridors

Priority Tourism Development

and Investment Areas

Mines and Protected Areas

Theoretical Framework for Risk Analysis

RISK SCORE HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY (UNDP,UNDRO)

Climate ChangeAdaptation:

Reduce vulnerability to:

Disaster RiskManagement

Reduce vulnerability to:

Gradual changes inclimatic parameters

Extreme weather eventswith increased

frequency and severity

Rising mean

temperature

Changes in

precipitationpatterns

Sea levelrise

Climate- andweather-

related hazards

Geophys-ical

hazards

Ecologicalhazards

Direct connection

Potential

connections

Exploit connections

using co-benefitstrategies

Conceptual Linkages of Climate Change Adaptationand Disaster Risk Management (CCA-DRM)

Top-down / Natlgovt policies.

Bottom-up /Community-based

(SOURCE:Cas-llo,Charlo3eKendraG,2007)


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Temperature Change 1961-1970

Data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia




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Minimum Temperature Change 1961-1970



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A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficienttechnology

A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology (IPCC 2000)


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DEC. 23, 1972 NOV. 26, 2001

Ma. Flordeliza P. Del Castillo

Typhoon track andaccumulated rainfall (mm)

09/24/2011 8PM PHTto

09/28/2011 8AM PHT

Typhoon tracks: JTWCcoordinatesAccumulated rainfall: TRMM

3B42RT


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2) San Roque, Bulacan

1) MO, Quezon City

3

3) Olongapo City,Zambales

2

1

09/26

09/27

09/28

*Ave Sept monthlyrainfall ~ 330mm

acquired September 26 - October 2, 2011


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PEDRING surpassesONDOY at P14.9B

Citizens Disaster Response

Center,,10/10/11

Courtesy of JAXAProvided by ISRO



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Tiwi and Malinao


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Practical Guide

Every event has a big picture. Disasters aredynamic combination of hazards, exposure andvulnerability.

Climate change changes everything. Find the weakest link. Vulnerability is the most

critical factor in disasters. Preparedness depends

on knowing why, where and how you are

vulnerable

Make a plan. Keep an eye on vulnerabilitywhich may affect interdependent systems.

Learn to ask for help and work with others.Understanding disaster risk requires

interdisciplinary work.


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Build a case for intervention. Evidence-baseddecision support systems are needed for critical

sectors, e.g. land-use management

Everyone needs a Plan B. Invest in infrastructurelinking science and innovation to evidence-

based policy. Redundancy , like relief, will solve

some problems but sustainability needs science.

Set targets. Clear baselines and thresholds foraccountability and transparency are needed in

risk governance.

Communicate risk in the voice of your audience. Be strategic. Invest in long-term change.

Restore the reaching of human and physicalgeography in basic and secondary education.Our children need to know the differencebetween lat and long.

Share.


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Acknowledgements

Manila Observatory Ateneo de Manila University University of the Philippines

National Institute of Geological Sciences

Marine Science Institute

Christian Aid UK for the use of Post-Ondoy Slides Sentinel Asia for the use of Pedring flood images courtesy of

JAXA, provided by ISRO

Chevron Geothermal, Inc. for the use of Tiwi and Malinao Slides Luis A. Yulo Foundation for Sustainable Development for the use

of Lungsod Iskwater Slides and the kind assistance of Ms.

Deborah Tolentino and Ms. Celina Loyzaga

Photo by Neal Oshima


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Thank You

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