kansas · 2018. 10. 5. · home to many businesses – small and large – that continue to grow...

2018

Kansas Economic

Report

This report is funded by the Workforce Information Grant from the U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration

Table of Contents Page i

Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................... vMessage from the Secretary.............................................................................................................. viExecutive Summary .......................................................................................................................... viiPopulation ............................................................................................................................................ 1Statewide Summary ............................................................................................................................ 3

Nonfarm Jobs............................................................................................................................ 3Location Quotients .................................................................................................................... 5

Labor Force ..........................................................................................................................................7Civilian Labor Force & Labor Force Participation Rate ............................................................. 7Unemployment Rate ................................................................................................................. 8Unemployment Insurance Claims ........................................................................................... 10

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) .............................................................................................11Kansas City Area .................................................................................................................... 12Lawrence MSA ........................................................................................................................ 13Manhattan MSA ...................................................................................................................... 15Topeka MSA ............................................................................................................................ 16Wichita MSA ............................................................................................................................ 17

Local Workforce Investment Areas.................................................................................................. 18Local Area I (Western Kansas) ............................................................................................... 19Local Area II (Northeast Kansas) ............................................................................................ 20Local Area III (Kansas City Area) ............................................................................................ 21Local Area IV (South Central Kansas) .................................................................................... 22Local Area V (Southeast Kansas) ........................................................................................... 23

Kansas Counties ............................................................................................................................... 25Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................................... 25Labor Force............................................................................................................................. 26Jobs…… ................................................................................................................................. 27Average Weekly Wage ............................................................................................................ 28

Job Vacancies .................................................................................................................................... 29Short-Term Projections ..................................................................................................................... 31Long-Term Projections ..................................................................................................................... 34High Demand Occupations ............................................................................................................... 37Inflation and Wages ........................................................................................................................... 39

Consumer Price Index ............................................................................................................ 39Real Wages ............................................................................................................................ 40

Personal Income ................................................................................................................................ 41Productivity ........................................................................................................................................ 43Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ....................................................................................................... 45Kansas Exports ................................................................................................................................. 48Economist Note - Labor Force Participation .................................................................................. 52Economist Note Sources .................................................................................................................. 59Sources...............................................................................................................................................60

Table of Contents

Table of Contents - Charts Page ii

Chart 1 – Kansas Population by Age ..................................................................................................... 2Chart 2 – Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs.......................................................................................... 3Chart 3 – Kansas Private Sector Jobs by Industry ................................................................................ 4Chart 4 – U.S. Private Sector Jobs by Industry ..................................................................................... 4Chart 5 – Jobs by Industry Type in Kansas ........................................................................................... 4Chart 6 – Percent Change in Labor Force............................................................................................. 7Chart 7 – Labor Force Participation Rate, 2007-2017 ........................................................................... 8Chart 8 – Annual Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................ 9Chart 9 – Initial and Continued Unemployment Insurance Claims ...................................................... 10Chart 10 – Kansas City Area Unemployment Rate ............................................................................. 12Chart 11 – Lawrence MSA Unemployment Rate ................................................................................. 14Chart 12 – Manhattan MSA Unemployment Rate .............................................................................. 15Chart 13 – Topeka MSA Unemployment Rate ..................................................................................... 16Chart 14 – Wichita MSA Unemployment Rate..................................................................................... 17Chart 15 – Local Area I Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................... 19Chart 16 – Local Area II Unemployment Rate ..................................................................................... 20Chart 17 – Local Area III Unemployment Rate .................................................................................... 21Chart 18 – Local Area IV Unemployment Rate.................................................................................... 22Chart 19 – Local Area V Unemployment Rate..................................................................................... 23Chart 20 – Most Vacant Occupations .................................................................................................. 29Chart 21 – Job Vacancies by Educational Requirement ..................................................................... 30Chart 22 – Percent Change in Consumer Price Index ........................................................................ 39Chart 23 – Percent Change in Real Average Weekly Wages .............................................................. 40Chart 24 – Percent Change in Nominal Personal Income ................................................................... 41Chart 25 – Per Capita Personal Income .............................................................................................. 42Chart 26 – Percent Change in Real GDP ............................................................................................ 45Chart 27 – Percent Change in Nominal GDP ...................................................................................... 45Chart 28 – Real GDP Per Capita ......................................................................................................... 46Chart 29 – Kansas Export Sales ......................................................................................................... 48Chart 30 – Top Kansas Exporting Industries ....................................................................................... 49Chart 31 – Top Kansas Exported Products ......................................................................................... 49Chart 32 – Export Sales for Top Exporting Industries .......................................................................... 50Chart 33 – Labor Force Participation Rate, 1997-2017 ....................................................................... 52Chart 34 – Labor Force Participation Rate by Age .............................................................................. 53Chart 35 – Not in Labor Force Due to Being in School, Age 16-19 ..................................................... 54Chart 36 – Labor Force Participation Rate by Educational Attainment ............................................... 55Chart 37 – Reasons for Not Being in the Labor Force, Age 25-54 ...................................................... 56Chart 38 – Not in Labor Force Due to Retirement, Age 55+ ............................................................... 57

Charts

Table of Contents - Tables Page iii

Table 1 – Total Population ..................................................................................................................... 1Table 2 – Top 10 Counties by Population & Population Growth ............................................................ 1Table 3 – Nonfarm Jobs......................................................................................................................... 3Table 4 – Location Quotients by Industry Sector ................................................................................... 5Table 5 – Top 20 Industry Subsectors by Location Quotient ................................................................. 6Table 6 – Kansas Labor Force Statistics ............................................................................................... 7Table 7 – Kansas MSA Labor Force Statistics..................................................................................... 12Table 8 – Kansas MSA Jobs Statistics ................................................................................................ 12Table 9 – Kansas City Area Nonfarm Jobs .......................................................................................... 13Table 10 – Lawrence MSA Nonfarm Jobs ........................................................................................... 14Table 11 – Manhattan MSA Nonfarm Jobs .......................................................................................... 15Table 12 – Topeka MSA Nonfarm Jobs ............................................................................................... 16Table 13 – Wichita MSA Nonfarm Jobs ............................................................................................... 17Table 14 – Local Workforce Investment Area Labor Force Statistics .................................................. 19Table 15 – Local Workforce Investment Area Jobs Statistics .............................................................. 19Table 16 – Local Area I Jobs ............................................................................................................... 20Table 17 – Local Area II Jobs .............................................................................................................. 21Table 18 – Local Area III Jobs ............................................................................................................. 22Table 19 – Local Area IV Jobs ............................................................................................................. 23Table 20 – Local Area V Jobs .............................................................................................................. 24Table 21 – Top 10 Industries by Numerical Job Change, 2017 - 2019 ................................................ 31Table 22 – Top 10 Occupations by Numerical Job Change, 2017 - 2019 ............................................ 32Table 23 – Projections by Educational Requirement, 2017 - 2019 ...................................................... 32Table 24 – Projections by Region, 2017 - 2019 ................................................................................... 33Table 25 – Top 10 Industries by Numerical Job Change, 2016 - 2026 ................................................ 35Table 26 – Top 10 Occupations by Numerical Job Change, 2016 - 2026 ............................................ 36Table 27 – Projections by Educational Requirement, 2016 – 2026 ..................................................... 36Table 28 – High Demand Occupations ................................................................................................ 37Table 29 – High Demand Occupations by Education, Experience or Training .................................... 38Table 30 – Percent Change in Consumer Price Index by Category .................................................... 39Table 31 – Real Average Weekly Wages ............................................................................................. 40Table 32 – Productivity per Worker ...................................................................................................... 44Table 33 – Labor Productivity Index ....................................................................................................44Table 34 – Nominal GDP by Industry .................................................................................................. 47Table 35 – Top Export Countries ......................................................................................................... 51

Tables

Table of Contents - Maps Page iv

Map 1 – Kansas MSAs & Kansas City Area ........................................................................................ 11Map 2 – Local Workforce Investment Areas Kansas Local Areas ....................................................... 18Map 3 – Unemployment Rate by County............................................................................................. 25Map 4 – Labor Force by County .......................................................................................................... 26Map 5 – Jobs by County ...................................................................................................................... 27Map 6 – Average Weekly Wage by County ......................................................................................... 28Map 7 – Projection Regions ................................................................................................................ 33

Maps

Acknowledgments Page v

Lana Gordon, SecretaryKansas Department of Labor

Justin McFarland, DirectorLabor Market Information Services

ContributorsLindsay Allen

Emilie DoerksenMason Jackson

Lori StaufferTyler Tenbrink

Claudette SandsAudri Smith

Barbara Hersh

The Economic Report is an annual publication produced by the Kansas Department of Labor (KDOL), Labor Market Information Services (LMIS) division. The assembly and analysis of the data included in this report would not have been possible without the dedication and hard work of several members of the LMIS team. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to the KDOL Communications team for their work in creating this document.

Acknowledgments

Greetings – thank you for your interest in the Kansas economy. I am pleased to present this year’s Kansas Economic Report that I believe shows the diversity of Kansas’ economy and the opportunities we have. The Labor Market Information Services (LMIS) division produces this report taking a detailed look into the Kansas economy.

Our state has always valued hard work and that is shown through one of the hardest working labor forces in the country. Kansas is also home to many businesses – small and large – that continue to grow and create jobs. There were 1,147,400 private sector jobs in Kansas in 2017, just 600 fewer than the series high reached in 2016. The number of unemployed people decreased to 53,367, the lowest number of unemployed people in the state in 17 years.

The Kansas labor force participation rate remains among the highest in the nation in 2017 at 66.6 percent. This is well above the national rate of 62.9 percent.

The average unemployment rate for 2017 was 3.6 percent, which is even lower than the unemployment rate prior to the Great Recession. There are employment opportunities in the state. Estimates from the Spring 2018 Kansas Job Vacancy Survey show there were 49,640 open positions during the second quarter. This is a 1.5 percent increase from 2017.

I encourage you to take a look at the many different economic factors discussed in this report and remember to take all of them into consideration when making an assessment of our state’s economy. Thank you for your efforts to strengthen the Kansas economy and make our state the best place to work and live.

Lana Gordon, Kansas Secretary of Labor

Secretary’s Message Page vi

Secretary’s Message

The Kansas economy failed to show any significant growth in 2017 with a major factor being the continuing struggles in the agriculture sector. There were some positive economic indicators in 2017 while data from the first half of 2018 suggests the economy is growing again. Unemployment remained low in Kansas as the annual unemployment rate decreased for the seventh consecutive year to 3.6 percent, the lowest rate recorded since 2000. Unemployment rates in each of Kansas’ Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and local workforce areas showed similar trends. The number of unemployed people and the number of unemployment insurance claims also continued to decrease. However, the total number of people in the labor force declined for the third consecutive year and the labor force participation rate fell for the eighth consecutive year.

Job numbers gave mixed signals in 2017 with nonfarm job estimates showing a decrease of 500 jobs over the year but jobs covered by unemployment insurance increasing by approximately 900. With both sources showing less than 0.1 percent change over the year, job growth was virtually nonexistent in 2017. Four industries gained jobs in 2017 with notable gains in manufacturing and leisure and hospitality while five industries lost jobs with financial activities, construction and information losing a notable number of jobs. Job growth was also uneven by region as the Kansas City Area gained 5,300 jobs and the Manhattan MSA gained 300 jobs, but the rest of the MSAs lost jobs.

On a positive note, both wages and personal income grew in Kansas during 2017. Average weekly wages grew in Kansas from $849 in 2016 to $868 in 2017. Since inflation in the Midwest remained at a relatively low 1.7 percent, inflation-adjusted wages also grew representing an increase in purchasing power for Kansans. Personal income grew 1.0 percent with further growth inhibited by a 45.7 percent decrease in farm income. This represented the fourth worst state personal income growth rate in the U.S.

Agriculture also contributed to Kansas’ real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreasing for the first time since the Great Recession, with Kansas being one of three states to record a decrease in 2017. Agriculture suffered the largest decline in GDP of any industry sector in 2017, with a decrease of $409 million. Agricultural GDP has decreased by 40.7 percent since 2013. A large decline in GDP was also recorded in the information sector.

Export sales grew in 2017 for the first time since 2013, increasing 10.7 percent to $11.2 billion. This is mostly due to large increases in exports of transportation equipment and food products. The increase in transportation equipment export sales was mostly due to a $731.1 million increase in civilian aircraft, engines and parts sales. The only Kansas major exporting industry to record a decline in sales was the agriculture sector. A notable exception to the decline in agricultural exports was a $161.8 million increase in soybean export sales.

Executive Summary Page vii

Executive Summary

Data from the first half of 2018 suggests that the economy is back on track after slowing down in 2017. In the first six months of 2018, Kansas has averaged 1,415,300 total nonfarm jobs, an increase of 17,900 jobs from the same time period in 2017. Also during the first six months of 2018, the unemployment rate has decreased further, averaging 3.4 percent. The number of job vacancies in Kansas increased during the spring of 2018 and the number of unemployed people per job vacancy is also near one meaning there are jobs for every Kansan in the labor force.

Note: Due to revisions and benchmarking processes, some data may have been updated since last year’s Economic Report was published. The data included in the 2018 Economic Report is current as of July 20, 2018. For more information on data found in this report, see Sources on page 60.

Executive Summary Page viii

Export sales grew in 2017 for the first time since 2013, increasing 10.7 percent to $11.2 billion.

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Population is an important statistic to review for economic purposes for two reasons, both of which benefit businesses. A growing population leads to a larger market for businesses and may lead to more jobs as demand for goods and services increase. A growing population also potentially increases the size and quality of the labor force which provides more labor supply for businesses to fill jobs.

Table 1 right, shows a historical perspective of the Kansas and U.S. populations since 2006. The Kansas population was estimated at 2,913,123 in 2017, ranking 35th out of the 50 states. This represents a gain of 5,392 people or 0.2 percent. According to Census Bureau estimates, there were approximately 38,000 people born in Kansas during 2017, while there were about 25,000 deaths and net migration in and out of Kansas resulted in a population loss of approximately 8,000. This is the fourth consecutive year of growth at or below 0.2 percent in Kansas and well below the post-World War II historical average of 0.7 percent. The U.S. population is also growing at historically low levels, recording 0.7 percent growth to 325.7 million in 2017. This marks the 17th consecutive year that the growth rate in the U.S. has been one percent or lower, the longest recorded time period with this low of population growth.

Table 2 left, shows the largest counties by population in Kansas and the fastest growing counties in 2017. Johnson County is the largest county in Kansas with 591,178 residents. Douglas, Sedgwick, Shawnee and Wyandotte counties are the other four counties in Kansas with at least 100,000 residents. For some perspective:• 20.3% of Kansans live in Johnson County• 37.9% of Kansans live in either Johnson or Sedgwick County• 53.9% of Kansans live in one of the top 5 counties listed in Table 2 left.

There were 36 counties that gained population in 2017, led by Sheridan County with 1.8 percent growth. Leavenworth and Johnson counties were the only counties that were in the top 10 in both total population and population growth.

Population Page 1

Population

Chart 1 left, displays the Kansas Population by Age group and gender in what is called a population pyramid. It is known as a pyramid since population by age group generally decreases with age creating a pyramid shape. However, the pyramid for Kansas shows that there are two major peaks in the population, one centering on the 20-24 age group representing the Millennial generation and the 55-59 age group representing the younger members of the Baby Boomer generation. The 20-24 age group has largest population in Kansas making up 7.4 percent of the total population.

For economic purposes, the two main age groups that are studied are the 16 and over population and the 25-54 population. The 16 and over population includes everyone who is eligible to be in the labor force, while 25-54 year olds are considered prime age workers. The 16 and over population for Kansas in 2017 was 2,280,929, an increase of 8,563, or 0.4 percent. The 25-54 year old population was 1,081,109 in 2017, a decrease of 4,357, or 0.4 percent. However, a major portion of the decrease was in the 50-54 age group indicating that a lot of the decline may be due to people aging out of the 25-54 group. On the other hand, future labor force growth may be in jeopardy since the population under 25 also decreased by 5,091, or 0.5 percent.

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Percent of Total Population

Age

Chart 1Kansas Population by Age

2017

Male Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Population Page 2

Johnson County is the largest county in Kansas with 591,178 residents.

The change in nonfarm jobs is one of the most current indicators of the economy’s health. Job growth indicates increased demand for businesses’ products and services. This puts money in the hands of those previously unemployed also further increasing the demand for consumer goods and services. Additional jobs also lead to increased output, signifying economic growth.

In 2017, Kansas lost 600 private sector jobs and 500 total nonfarm jobs. This was the first year with job losses since 2010. Nationally, private sector jobs increased in 2017 by 2.2 million, or 1.8 percent, and nonfarm jobs increased in 2017 by 2.3 million, or 1.6 percent. This was the seventh straight year of job growth for the U.S. Chart 2 below, shows the annual percent change in nonfarm jobs for Kansas and the U.S. since 2007. Table 3 below, displays nonfarm job totals in the U.S. and Kansas.

Job growth was recorded in four of the 11 major industries in Kansas during 2017. Manufacturing and leisure and hospitality added the most jobs of any industry, with each industry growing by 1,300 jobs. All the growth in manufacturing occurred in the non-durable goods sector while the growth in leisure and hospitality was recorded in the accommodation and food services sector. Education and health services and government were the other two industries to gain jobs in 2017. Education and health services added 700 jobs, mostly in health care and social assistance. Government grew by 300 jobs with small gains recorded at all levels.

Statewide Summary Page 3

Statewide Summary Nonfarm Jobs

Five of the major industries lost jobs over the year. Financial activities lost 1,200 jobs, with the losses occurring in the finance and insurance sector. Construction declined by 1,100 jobs with losses recorded throughout the industry. Information also declined by 1,100 jobs. The other two industries to record job decreases were professional and business services and trade, transportation and utilities. Jobs in mining and logging and other services were unchanged from 2016 to 2017. Charts 3 and 4 below right, display the number of jobs by private sector industry in 2017 for Kansas and the U.S. In the U.S., all 11 major industries gained jobs with the largest gains occurring in education and health services.

Chart 5 below right, displays the number of jobs by industry type in Kansas over the past 11 years. Goods producing industries include mining and logging, construction and manufacturing while the remaining industries are in private service providing industries except for government which is its own industry type. In 2017, private service providing industries lost 800 jobs while government gained 300 jobs and goods producing industries remained unchanged.

These changes are different from recent employment trends. Throughout the current period of economic expansion, private service providing industries have increased the most, adding an average of approximately 12,000 jobs each year from 2010 through 2016. The decline in 2017 was the first time private service providing industries have decreased since 2010. The slight increase in government jobs is also in contrast with recent trends, with the number of government jobs decreasing by about 1,000 each year from 2010 to 2016. 2017 also marked the first time since 2014 that goods producing industries did not lose jobs over the year.


Location quotients compare the concentration of private sector employment by industry for two or more areas. Through the use of location quotients the industry sectors that contribute the most to the Kansas economy can be identified. If the location quotient is higher than one, Kansas has a higher concentration of employment in that industry compared to the rest of the country. This means Kansas has an advantage in that industry and is likely to generate more income from that industry from sources outside of Kansas. The opposite is true if the location quotient is less than one.

Table 4 below, lists the location quotients by industry sector for Kansas. Fifteen out of the 19 industry location quotients are between 0.75 and 1.25, indicating that Kansas has a fairly similar employment by industry distribution to the U.S. There are eight industry sectors where Kansas recorded a location quotient greater than one and therefore has an advantage. The manufacturing industry recorded the highest location quotient in 2017 at 1.37. This is due to eight of the top 20 industry subsector location quotients, as displayed in Table 5 next page, occurring in subsectors of the manufacturing industry, led by transportation equipment (location quotient of 2.37), food (2.22) and petroleum and coal products (2.15). Location quotients higher than two indicate Kansas has more than twice the concentration of jobs in those sectors compared to the rest of the country.

Utilities; management of companies and enterprises; and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction also had location quotients higher than 1.10. Utilities has a high concentration of jobs in natural gas distribution and electric power generation. Management of companies and enterprises has a higher location quotient due to the location of several corporate and regional headquarters in Kansas. Oil and gas extraction has a relatively high location quotient bringing up the total for mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction.

Location Quotients


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Rectangle

The highest location quotient for an individual industry subsector is animal production and aquaculture at 2.86 but the overall agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting location quotient is only 1.02 due to the lack of forestry, logging and commercial fishing, hunting and trapping activities in Kansas. There are 11 industries with a location quotient less than one, with the lowest being educational services at 0.54 due to the lack of private educational institutions in Kansas.


Fifteen out of the 19 industry location quotients are between 0.75 and 1.25, indicating that Kansas has a fairly similar employment by industry distribution to the U.S.

The civilian labor force is a measure of the number of people over the age of 16 that are available for work. This includes individuals who are employed as well as those who are unemployed but actively seeking work. A growing labor force is favorable as it increases the number of workers available for employers and shows there is increasing confidence of finding a job in a given area.

As indicated in Table 6 below, there were 1,478,783 people in the labor force in 2017, a 0.4 percent decrease. This is the third consecutive year the labor force has contracted in Kansas. The decline was mostly due to the reduction of the number of unemployed people. There were 1,425,216 Kansans working in 2017, a decrease of 197 people. The number of unemployed people decreased

by 6,356 people, or 10.6 percent, to 53,567, which is the lowest number of unemployed people since 2000.

Prime age workers are those workers who are between 25 and 54 years old. The labor force of this group decreased by approximately 19,000 in 2017 to 899,000 people. The number of employed prime age workers declined by 19,000 while the number of unemployed prime age workers remained

unchanged. This corresponded with a 15,000 decrease in the population of prime age workers in Kansas.

The U.S. civilian labor force increased for the sixth consecutive year, recording an expansion of 0.7 percent to 160.3 million. There were 153.3 million people in the U.S. working in 2017, a 1.3 percent increase. The number of unemployed people decreased by 769 thousand, or 9.9 percent, to 7.0

million in 2017. Chart 6 left, shows the percent change in the civilian labor force for Kansas and the U.S.

Labor Force Page 7

Labor Force Civilian Labor Force and Labor Force Participation Rate

The labor force participation rate is the percentage of all individuals above the age of 16, non-institutionalized and civilian, who participate in the labor force. Kansas’ labor force participation rate remained among the highest in the nation in 2017. As shown in Chart 7 below, the rate was 66.6 percent in Kansas, which is the 12th highest rate for states, and above the national rate of 62.9 percent. The Kansas rate represents a decrease of 0.6 percentage points. This is the eighth consecutive year the labor force participation rate has declined and the lowest recorded since 1983 while the national rate increased for the second consecutive year. The main reason for the decline in the labor force participation rate in Kansas was a decrease in the labor force participation rate

among 35 to 64 year olds. This contributed to the prime age worker labor force participation rate declining from 85.2 percent in 2016 to 84.5 percent in 2017. The labor force participation rate among 16 to 19 year olds also decreased over the year by two percentage points.

The unemployment rate is a frequently cited economic statistic because it shows how many people want a job and cannot find one. The unemployment rate shows the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and currently looking for a job. If the rate is high, there is a large number of people who want a job but are having difficulty finding one due to a lack of demand for employees.

In 2017, Kansas continued to have a low unemployment rate, recording an average annual unemployment rate of 3.6 percent. This represents a decrease of 0.4 percentage points and is the first time the annual unemployment rate has been below four percent since 2000. The unemployment rate is 1.1 percentage points lower than the historical average (1976-present) annual unemployment rate for Kansas which is 4.7 percent. The 2017 annual rate is also tied for the fifth lowest annual unemployment rate since 1976.

Unemployment Rate

Labor Force Page 8

Labor Force Page 9

Kansas’ rate continues to be lower than the national unemployment rate, which fell to 4.4 percent in 2017, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 2016. The U.S. unemployment rate has finally reached pre-Great Recession levels and is also the lowest annual unemployment rate recorded since 2000. Chart 8 left, compares the unemployment rates for Kansas and the U.S. from 2007 to 2017, along with the projected rates for 2018 and 2019. The projected rate for Kansas is expected to remain below four percent while the U.S. rate is projected to continue to decrease.

The unemployment rate shows the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and currently looking for a job.

Unemployment Insurance Claims

Analyzing trends in unemployment insurance claims is another way to assess unemployment and the labor market. An initial claim is the first claim filed by a claimant to request a determination of eligibility for unemployment benefits. A continued claim is a claim filed by a claimant for a weekly payment of unemployment benefits; this is typically done every week until the claimant finds a job, exhausts benefits or leaves the labor force. Initial claims are an indicator of emerging unemployment, and continued claims indicate the level of difficulty the unemployed are having at finding a new job. Note that the number of claims is not a representation of total unemployment as not all Kansans are covered under unemployment insurance laws or may choose not to file for unemployment benefits. As shown in Chart 9 below the number of initial claims filed in 2017 decreased by 9.2 percent to 113,186 claims. This marks the fourth consecutive year initial claims have declined and is the first time the number of initial claims have been under 115,000 since 1999. Continued claims declined by 16.7 percent in 2017, to 582,960 claims. This marks the fifth consecutive year that continued claims have decreased by more than ten percent. It was also the third lowest number of continued claims filed since 1970 when records begin.

While the improving economy is mostly to credit for this decrease, recent law changes have also played a role. Starting in 2014, the maximum number of weeks of unemployment benefits a claimant can file for has been based on the unemployment rate. This has caused the maximum number of weeks to decline from 26 weeks prior to the law change to 20 weeks for most of 2014 and finally to 16 weeks for most of 2015 and all of 2016 to present. Since this change went into effect, continued claims have decreased by 53.4 percent.

Unemployment Insurance Claims Page 10

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are major urban areas including the surrounding counties with a high number of commuters. KDOL releases data for the four MSAs completely in Kansas: Lawrence, Manhattan, Topeka and Wichita, along with the Kansas counties of the Kansas City MSA, which is referred to as the Kansas City Area. Map 1 below, shows the locations of the MSAs within Kansas. Table 7 next page, displays the labor force statistics for the MSAs while Table 8 next page, shows the jobs statistics. MSAs are important because of their concentrated population and subsequent employment. Information pertaining to these areas can give insight into the overall economic well-being of the state.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas Page 11

Metropolitan Statistical Areas


The Kansas City Area is comprised of five counties: Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and Wyandotte. The Kansas City Area population grew by 8,910, or 1.0 percent, to 880,748 in 2017. The labor force grew by 5,095, or 1.1 percent, to 467,048 in 2017. The number of people working grew by 6,248, or 1.4 percent to 450,733. The number of people in the labor force and working are record

highs for the Kansas City Area and the most of any MSA. The Kansas City Area also had the highest growth rate in both the labor force and people working of any MSA. The unemployment rate in 2017 was 3.5 percent, a 0.3 percentage point reduction and tied for the second lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for the Kansas City Area. MSA labor force and unemployment rate records go back to 1990. Chart 10 left, shows the annual unemployment rate for the Kansas City Area since 2007.

Kansas City Area

In 2017, the Kansas City Area added 5,300 nonfarm jobs, or 1.1 percent. This increase included a gain of 4,700 private sector jobs, or 1.1 percent. This is the highest number of jobs added in any MSA. Seven of the 10 published industries grew in the Kansas City Area from 2016 to 2017. Trade, transportation and utilities added 2,900 jobs with large gains recorded in transportation, warehousing and utilities, which added 2,600 jobs, and wholesale trade, which added 1,000 jobs. Professional and business services increased by 1,100 jobs with gains recorded throughout the industry. Education and health services added 1,000 jobs, all in health care and social assistance.

Three industries lost jobs over the year. Information lost 600 jobs since 2016. Manufacturing declined by 300 jobs with losses in durable goods manufacturing exceeding the job gains in non-durable goods manufacturing. Financial activities decreased by 100 jobs, with the losses recorded in finance and insurance. Table 9 below, displays employment by industry for the Kansas City Area in 2016 and 2017.

The average weekly hours worked increased for the Kansas City Area from 34.3 hours in 2016 to 34.7 hours in 2017. Average hourly earnings also increased from $26.08 in 2016 to $27.15 in 2017. This resulted in a $47.57 increase in average weekly earnings in 2017 to $942.11. The Kansas City Area recorded the highest hourly and weekly earnings of any Kansas MSA.

The Lawrence MSA includes only Douglas County; however its population and job concentration make it a major urban center for the state. The Lawrence MSA population grew by 1,301 people to 120,793 in 2017. The 1.1 percent growth rate made it the fastest growing MSA in 2017. The labor force decreased slightly in 2017 by 75 people to 65,199 while the number of people employed increased by 171 to 63,138 people. The number of people working was a new record high for the Lawrence MSA. The unemployment rate in 2017 was 3.2 percent, a 0.3 percentage point reduction from the previous year. The 2017 unemployment rate tied for the second lowest rate ever for the Lawrence MSA. Chart 11 next page, displays the unemployment rate for the Lawrence MSA since 2007.


Lawrence MSA

In 2017, the Lawrence MSA lost 100 jobs, or 0.2 percent, due to a decrease of 100 private sector jobs, or 0.3 percent. Table 10 below left, shows that two of the seven published industries in the Lawrence MSA added jobs in 2017. Goods producing industries and leisure and hospitality both added 300 jobs each. Goods producing industries is a combination of mining and logging, construction and manufacturing. Other service providing industries, a combination of financial activities, information and other services, lost 400 jobs while professional and business services declined by 300 jobs. The three other industries recorded the same number of jobs in 2017 as in 2016.

The average weekly hours worked in the Lawrence MSA decreased by 0.2 hours from 2016 to 2017 to 27.8 hours, the shortest average work week in any Kansas MSA. Average hourly earnings increased from

$19.24 to $20.42, but were still the lowest of any Kansas MSA despite being the largest increase of any Kansas MSA. The increase in hourly earnings resulted in average weekly earnings increasing from $538.72 in 2016 to $567.68 in 2017. This was also the lowest weekly earnings recorded in any Kansas MSA.


The Manhattan MSA is comprised of Pottawatomie and Riley counties. The Manhattan MSA population recorded a small decrease of 61 people, or 0.1 percent, to 98,080 in 2017. The Manhattan MSA was the only MSA to lose population from 2016 to 2017. The labor force grew by 152, or 0.3 percent, to 47,192 and the number of people working increased by 335, or 0.7 percent, to 45,770. The unemployment rate in 2017 was 3.0 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points. This was

also the second lowest annual unemployment rate ever for the Manhattan MSA and the lowest unemployment rate of any of the Kansas MSAs. Chart 12 left, displays the unemployment rate for the Manhattan MSA since 2007.

In 2017, the number of total nonfarm jobs in the Manhattan MSA increased by 300 jobs, or 0.7 percent, including private sector job growth of 100 jobs,

or 0.4 percent. The Manhattan MSA was the only Kansas MSA other than the Kansas City Area to gain jobs in 2017. As seen in Table 11 below, which shows the employment by industry for the Manhattan MSA, only 3 industries are published due to the small size of the MSA. Private service providing industries and government both added 200 jobs while goods producing industries lost 100 jobs.

The average weekly hours worked in the Manhattan MSA increased by 2.1 hours in 2017 to 33.8 hours. This was the largest growth in hours worked of any Kansas MSA. The average hourly earnings were basically unchanged from 2016 to 2017, growing by two cents from $21.14 to $21.16. These increases led to a $45.07 increase in average weekly earnings to $715.21. The 6.7 percent growth rate in average weekly earnings was the highest growth rate of any Kansas MSA in 2017.


Manhattan MSA

The Topeka MSA is comprised of Jackson, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee and Wabaunsee counties. The Topeka MSA population increased by 201 people from 2016 to 2017 to 233,149. The Topeka MSA labor force contracted by 1,134 people to 119,797 in 2017. There were 115,452 people working in 2017, a decrease of 667, or 0.6 percent. The unemployment rate in 2017 was 3.6 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points. This was the second lowest annual unemployment rate ever recorded for the Topeka MSA. Chart 13 below, displays the unemployment rate for the Topeka MSA since 2007.

In 2017, the Topeka MSA lost 800 nonfarm jobs, or 0.7 percent as seen in Table 12 below. Most of the job losses occurred in the private sector which decreased by 600 jobs, or 0.7 percent. Two of the 10 published industries experienced job growth in 2017. Leisure and hospitality added 300 jobs, with most of the growth occurring in accommodation and food services, while manufacturing increased by 200 jobs with all the growth recorded in non-durable goods manufacturing.

The mining, logging and construction industry along with the professional and business services industry both lost the most jobs from 2016 to 2017 with decreases of 400 jobs in each industry. Trade, transportation and utilities and government also lost jobs over the year. Four industries recorded no change in job levels from 2016 to 2017.

Average weekly hours worked increased by 0.4 hours in the Topeka MSA in 2017 to 32.8 hours. Average hourly earnings increased from $21.79 in 2016 to $22.53 in 2017. These increases caused average weekly earnings to grow from $706.00 in 2016 to $738.98 in 2017.


Topeka MSA

The Wichita MSA contains Butler, Harvey, Kingman, Sedgwick and Sumner counties. Population in the Wichita MSA grew by 948 from 2016 to 2017 to 645,628. The labor force decreased by 3,452, or 1.1 percent, to 307,708 and the number of people working declined by 2,027, or 0.7 percent, to 294,953. These were the largest declines of any Kansas MSA. The unemployment rate in 2017 was 4.1 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 2016. As seen in Chart 14 below, the Wichita MSA continues to have the highest unemployment rate of any Kansas MSA.

In 2017, the Wichita MSA lost 2,500 nonfarm jobs, or 0.8 percent. The Wichita MSA lost 2,700 private sector jobs, or 1.1 percent. Three of the 10 industries in the Wichita MSA experienced job growth in 2017. Leisure and hospitality added 400 jobs throughout the industry. The other two industries to record job gains in 2017 were other services, adding 200 jobs, and government, which added 100 jobs.

Six industries lost jobs from 2016 to 2017. Trade, transportation and utilities lost 1,400 jobs with losses occurring in all sectors, led by retail trade, which lost 900 jobs. Education and health services decreased by 700 jobs, with most of the losses occurring in health care and social assistance. Professional and business services lost 400 jobs, with most of the decline recorded in administrative and support and waste management and remediation services. Financial activities job levels were unchanged over the year. Table 13 below, shows the jobs by industry in 2016 and 2017 for the Wichita MSA.

Average weekly hours worked increased from 2016 to 2017 by 0.5 hours in the Wichita MSA to 34.8 hours, the longest work week of any Kansas MSA. Average hourly earnings increased from $21.45 in 2016 to $21.78 in 2017. Average weekly earnings also increased from $735.74 in 2016 to $757.94 in 2017.

Wichita MSA


Local Workforce Investment Areas

Local Workforce Investment Areas Page 18

In order to more efficiently administer workforce development programs in the state of Kansas, the state is divided into five local workforce areas. Map 2 below, displays the five local areas. This report will detail the economic conditions of each of the local areas. Table 14 next page, shows the labor force statistics for each local area and Table 15 next page, displays the jobs statistics.

While statewide and Metropolitan Statistical Area job estimates come from nonfarm job totals as provided by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, job totals for the local areas and counties come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. The biggest difference between the two is that QCEW is a count of all jobs subject to state and federal unemployment insurance. Jobs in QCEW may be reclassified between industries between years, which can result in large changes in the data.


Local Area I - Western KansasLocal Area I includes 62 counties in western and north central Kansas. In 2017, the total population of Local Area I was 573,331, a decrease of 3,463 or 0.6 percent from the previous year. The largest cities in this local area are Salina, Hutchinson, Dodge City, Garden City and Hays. The 2017 labor force for Local Area I was 298,707, a decrease from 2016 of 3,720, or 1.2 percent. This was the largest numerical decrease in the labor force in any of the local areas. The decline was due to a decrease of 2,174 in employed people and a decrease of 1,546 in unemployed people. The Local Area I unemployment rate improved by 0.5 percentage points in 2017 to 3.1 percent. Local Area I

recorded the lowest unemployment rate of any of the local areas. Chart 15 left, displays the unemployment rate in Local Area I since 2007.


Local Area II - Northeast Kansas

As seen in Table 16 right, Local Area I lost 555 total jobs in 2017, or 0.2 percent, and 225 private sector jobs, or 0.1 percent. Three of the 11 major industries gained jobs with manufacturing leading the way with a 1,073 job increase, or 2.8 percent. Most of the gain was in food manufacturing. The other industries that added jobs during 2017 were education and health services, which increased by 219 jobs, and natural resources and mining, which grew by 99 jobs.

Four industries lost 200 or more jobs from 2016 to 2017. Construction decreased by 807 jobs, or 7.7 percent, with losses throughout the industry. Government declined by 330 jobs, with losses recorded at all levels of government. Trade, transportation and utilities lost 277 jobs with most of the decreases occurring in retail trade. Information declined by 200 jobs. The average weekly wage in Local Area I was $707 in 2017, an increase of $22, or 3.2 percent, from 2016.

Local Area II includes 17 counties in northeast Kansas. In 2017, the population of Local Area II was 578,616, a decrease of 12 people. The largest cities in this local area are Topeka, Lawrence, Manhattan and Junction City. In 2017, the labor force decreased by 2,198, or 0.7 percent, to 292,395 people. The number of people employed and unemployed decreased with 962 fewer people

employed and 1,236 fewer people unemployed. The unemployment rate, as shown in Chart 16 left, decreased by 0.4 percentage points in 2017 to 3.5 percent.

Local Area II lost 1,562 jobs, or 0.6 percent, from 2016 to 2017 as displayed in Table 17 next page. Private sector jobs decreased by 1,352, or 0.7 percent. Five of the 11 industries gained jobs with education and health services adding the most jobs with 302 jobs, or 0.9 percent. Most of this increase


Local Area III - Kansas City Area

was in health care and social assistance. The other two industries to add at least 200 jobs were leisure and hospitality, which grew by 270 jobs, and financial activities, which increased by 265 jobs.

Trade, transportation and utilities lost the most jobs of any industry in 2017, with a decrease of 1,228 jobs, or 2.9 percent. Most of the losses occurred in wholesale and retail trade. Other notable losses occurred in professional and business services and construction. Professional and business services declined by 497 jobs, or 1.9 percent, with most of the decrease recorded in the administrative and support and waste management and remediation services sector. Construction

lost 397 jobs with declines recorded throughout the industry. The 2017 average weekly wage for Local Area II was $768, an increase from 2016 of $14, or 1.9 percent.

Local Area III consists of Johnson, Leavenworth and Wyandotte counties-the three largest counties on the Kansas side of the Kansas City Metropolitan Statistical Area. The population of Local Area III was 837,561 in 2017, an increase of 8,312 or 1.0 percent from 2016. This makes Local Area III the most populous and fastest growing local area. The 2017 labor force for Local Area III was 445,518,

a gain from 2016 of 4,929, or 1.1 percent. There was an increase of 5,993 in the number of people working and a decrease of 1,064 in the number of unemployed people. Local Area III was the only local area to record a growth in the labor force and the number of people working. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points from 2016 to 2017 to 3.5 percent, as seen in Chart 17 left.


Local Area IV - South Central Kansas

Local Area III gained 5,326 jobs, or 1.2 percent, from 2016 to 2017, making it the only local area to record a job increase over the year. Table 18 below, also shows private sector jobs increased by 5,314, or 1.3 percent. Seven of the 11 industries gained jobs over the year. A majority of the job growth occurred in the trade, transportation and utilities industry, which increased by 3,526 jobs. The increase was due to large gains in transportation and warehousing, which added 3,532 jobs,

and wholesale trade, which grew by 1,135 jobs. Another large job increase was recorded in education and health services, which increased by 1,255 jobs. Almost all the growth in this industry occurred in health care and social assistance. Professional and business services was the other industry to gain at least 500 jobs, adding 688 jobs or 0.7 percent.

Four industries lost jobs between 2016 and 2017, with two of them decreasing by more than 400 jobs. Information declined by 481 jobs, or 6.2 percent, with most of the losses in telecommunications. Financial activities

decreased by 450 jobs, or 1.3 percent, with the decline occurring in finance and insurance. The average weekly wage in 2017 for Local Area III was $1,037, the highest average weekly wage of any of the local areas. This represents an increase of $19 from 2016 or 1.9 percent.

Local Area IV consists of Butler, Cowley, Harper, Kingman, Sedgwick and Sumner counties. This local area includes most of the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area. The 2017 population of Local Area IV was 652,035, an increase from 2016 of 828, or 0.1 percent. This makes Local Area IV the second largest by population and population growth. The labor force in 2017 had 310,291 individuals, a decrease from 2016 of 3,454, or 1.1 percent. The number of employed people decreased by 1,961 and the number of unemployed decreased by 1,493 people. Chart 18 left, shows that the

unemployment rate in 2017 was 4.1 percent, 0.5 percentage points lower than 2016.

Local Area IV lost 2,062 jobs, or 0.7 percent, in 2017 while private sector jobs decreased by 2,412, or 1.0 percent. As seen in Table 19 next page, five of the 11 industries added jobs. Financial activities increased by the most jobs, adding 487 jobs, or 4.4 percent, with all the growth occurring in finance and insurance. Government added 348 jobs,


Local Area V - Southeast Kansas

or 0.9 percent, with gains recorded at all levels of government. The other two industries that added at least 200 jobs were leisure and hospitality and other services, which increased by 218 jobs and 202 jobs respectively.

Three industries lost more than 500 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities decreased by 1,215 jobs, or 2.3 percent, with losses occurring throughout the industry. Professional and business services declined by 863 jobs, or 2.6 percent, with most of the decrease being in the administrative and support and waste management and remediation services

sector. Education and health services lost 546 jobs, or 1.3 percent, with the losses occurring in health care and social assistance. The Local Area IV 2017 average weekly wage was $863, an increase of $14 or 1.6 percent.

Local Area V includes 17 counties in southeast Kansas. In 2017, the population of Local Area V was 271,580, a decrease from 2016 of 273, or 0.1 percent. The two largest cities in Local Area V are Emporia and Pittsburg. The 2017 labor force for Local Area V was 131,880, a decrease from 2016 of 2,116 or 1.6 percent. Local Area V has the smallest population and labor force of any local area. The change in labor force is due to a decrease of 1,098 in employed people and 1,018 in unemployed

people. The unemployment rate in 2017, displayed in Chart 19 left, was 4.4 percent, a 0.7 percentage point improvement from 2016 but still the highest unemployment rate of any local area.


The two largest cities in Local Area V are Emporia and Pittsburg. The 2017 labor force for Local Area V was 131,880, a decrease from 2016 of 2,116 or 1.6 percent.

As seen in Table 20 below, Local Area V lost 1,038 total jobs, or 1.0 percent, from 2016 to 2017. Local Area V lost 1,254 private sector jobs, or 1.6 percent in the same time period. Three of the 11 industries gained jobs during 2017 with leisure and hospitality and government being the two industries to gain more than 200 jobs. They added 216 jobs each. Most of the increase in leisure and hospitality occurred in accommodation and food services while most of the increase in government was at the local government level.

Of the eight industries that lost jobs, three of the industries lost over 300 jobs. Education and health services decreased by 476 jobs, or 3.3 percent, with the decline occurring in health care and social assistance. Trade, transportation and utilities lost 410 jobs, or 2.2 percent, with most of the losses in retail trade. Professional and business services declined by 392 jobs, or 6.4 percent, with losses recorded throughout the industry. The average weekly wage for Local Area V was $685, an increase of $18 from 2016 to 2017, or 2.7 percent.

Kansas Counties

Kansas Counties Page 25

Unemployment Rate

Kansas has 105 counties, each important to the economic welfare of the state. Economic trends and insight can be more easily observed by studying county level statistics.

In 98 counties, the unemployment rate decreased from 2016 to 2017. Neosho County recorded the best improvement in the unemployment rate, decreasing by 2.0 percentage points. Atchison, Wilson and Woodson counties also recorded decreases of one percentage point or greater. The rates for Edwards, Pawnee and Republic counties were unchanged while the rates for Cloud, Harper, Lane and Wichita counties increased.

Thirty-six counties recorded an unemployment rate below three percent in 2017 and 84 counties had a rate below four percent. Greeley County had the lowest unemployment rate of any county at 1.8 percent, the only county with a rate below two percent. Linn County experienced the highest unemployment rate in 2017 at 5.9 percent. Six counties had an unemployment rate above five percent. See Map 3 below, to view the unemployment rates and the change in the unemployment rate from 2016 to 2017 by county.


Labor ForceThe labor force increased in 19 counties from 2016 to 2017. There were nine counties that had labor force growth of one percent or greater. Brown County recorded the largest percent increase, with the labor force expanding by 3.1 percent while Johnson County experienced the largest total increase by adding 3,842 people to the labor force in 2017. Morton County recorded the largest percent decrease in the labor force at 9.8 percent while Sedgwick County lost the most individuals out of the labor force at 2,637 people.

Johnson County had the largest labor force in 2017 with 332,197, accounting for 22.5 percent of the total labor force in Kansas. Sedgwick County was the only other county with a labor force greater than 100,000 at 244,662, accounting for 16.5 percent of the Kansas labor force. Lane County had the smallest labor force at 797 people, one of six counties with a labor force of fewer than 1,000 people. See Map 4 below, to view the labor force and the change in the labor force from 2016 to 2017 by county.


Jobs

Cherokee-2.1%5,816

Graham-6.6%818

Brown5.6%5,149

Ottawa-5.8%1,269

Riley1.1%

29,077

Seward-2.7%10,802

Hodgeman-1.6%550

Stanton-0.1%807

Osborne0.6%1,445

Ford-0.5%17,574

Sheridan-3.8%921

Logan0.6%1,257

Jackson-1.5%4,124

Grant-7.3%2,994

Ellis0.4%

15,104

Anderson0.1%2,068

Scott2.7%2,285

Chautauqua-3.0%739

Barton2.2%

12,352

Gray5.5%3,269

Edwards-11.2%

954

Rice5.0%4,023

Hamilton3.2%1,373

Leavenworth1.3%

21,130

Reno0.9%

26,647

Elk2.4%601

Bourbon-0.4%6,295

Clark-3.9%724

Stafford-3.6%1,228

Barber1.3%1,666

Decatur1.2%957

Lane-2.2%631

Shawnee-0.7%96,634

Labette-2.6%9,053

Norton-0.7%2,426

McPherson0.8%

14,488Pawnee-4.7%2,859

Atchison0.1%5,545

Greeley-1.9%674

Smith-0.5%1,262

Morris0.7%1,492

Lincoln-1.4%926

Douglas0.0%

49,216

Haskell-0.3%1,852

Clay-0.9%2,987

Neosho1.9%6,132

Kiowa-5.4%1,184

Chase5.9%894

Wabaunsee0.6%1,347

Marshall-0.5%4,473

Sherman-0.3%2,430

Pratt-1.2%4,461

Rooks-6.2%1,739

Franklin-0.8%9,453

Jewell1.6%755

Gove-0.7%1,217

Johnson1.4%

342,433

Wichita-0.1%764

Wyandotte0.5%

90,994

Sedgwick-0.7%

247,087

Geary-6.1%12,829

Russell-0.7%2,595

Linn0.7%2,157

Morton-13.7%

833

Meade24.8%2,096

Nemaha-5.1%5,200

Mitchell-4.7%3,090

Sumner-0.9%7,025

Woodson3.2%711

Pottawatomie1.4%9,514

Marion8.5%3,801

Phillips-0.4%2,450

Allen0.3%5,494

Washington-1.4%2,017

Butler-0.8%18,570

Finney-0.3%18,843

Jefferson-3.2%3,559

Trego-3.9%1,243

Crawford1.7%

17,259

Wallace2.3%545

Cloud-5.4%3,133

Comanche-3.6%645

Greenwood-2.5%1,649

Doniphan-7.5%2,194

Saline0.2%

30,216

Stevens-5.9%1,805

Osage-0.1%2,820Lyon

-0.4%15,125

Dickinson2.2%6,409

Kingman-1.5%2,356

Thomas-2.6%3,917

Cowley0.4%

14,201

Kearny2.8%1,329

Ness-1.3%1,101

Republic-2.3%1,955

Rawlins-2.3%908

Rush-5.6%1,051

Ellsworth-2.4%2,243

Miami0.4%8,387

Harvey-2.0%13,899

Montgomery-4.8%14,261

Wilson-1.9%3,619

Coffey-6.3%3,665

Cheyenne0.0%904

Harper-8.8%2,130

Percent Change in Jobs

Decrea

se

No Cha

nge

Increa

se

Source: Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Servicesin conjunction with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

StatewideJobs (Percent Change): 0.1%Jobs (Number of Jobs): 1,371,529

Map 5 Jobs by County

The number of jobs increased in 39 counties during 2017. Johnson County added the most total jobs with 4,602 more jobs. The Johnson County total job growth exceeded the number of jobs added in the other 38 counties with growth combined. Morton County experienced the largest percent decrease in jobs at 13.7 percent while Sedgwick County lost the most total jobs, recording 1,671 fewer jobs in 2017.

There were 342,433 jobs in Johnson County in 2017, the most of any county, followed by Sedgwick County with 247,087 jobs and Shawnee County with 96,634 jobs. Wallace County recorded the fewest number of jobs with 545, one of 21 counties with fewer than 1,000 jobs. See Map 5 below, to view jobs and the change in jobs from 2016 to 2017 by county.

Average Weekly WageAverage weekly wage increased in 90 counties in 2017. With the Midwest experiencing inflation of 1.7 percent in 2017, 64 counties experienced growth in inflation adjusted average weekly wages giving Kansans in those counties more money to spend on additional goods and services. Marion County experienced the most growth in wages, with average weekly wages increasing from $567 in 2016 to $699 in 2017, a 23.2 percent increase. Atchison, Brown, Rice, Trego and Wilson counties also recorded wage growth of at least ten percent. Edwards County recorded the largest decrease in average weekly wages, with a decline of $70, or 9.4 percent. Kingman County was the only other county with a decrease of five percent or greater, declining 5.2 percent.

Coffey County recorded the highest 2017 average weekly wage in Kansas at $1,117. Johnson County was the only other county with an average weekly wage over $1,000 at $1,060. Elk County experienced the lowest average weekly wage at $446, one of eight counties with an average weekly wage less than $550. See Map 6 below, to view average weekly wage and the change in average weekly wage from 2016 to 2017 by county.


Job Vacancies Page 29

The number of job vacancies and the ratio of the number of unemployed individuals to the number of vacant jobs can be used to measure the demand for labor in a given area, which helps provide insight to the health of the labor market. KDOL conducts the semiannual Job Vacancy Survey (JVS) in order to measure labor demand by area, industry and occupation. The most recent survey was conducted during the second quarter of 2018. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also releases monthly data on job openings in the U.S. and the Midwest region through their Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

There were 49,640 job vacancies in Kansas during the second quarter of 2018, a 1.5 percent increase from second quarter of 2017. This represents the second most vacancies recorded since the Kansas JVS started in 2004. The statewide vacancy rate was 3.5 percent, indicating that for every 100 positions in Kansas, 3.5 were vacant and 96.5 were filled. This is lower than the 4.3 percent job vacancy rate for the U.S. and the 4.8 percent rate for the Midwest recorded for May 2018.

There were 1.0 unemployed people for every vacancy in Kansas, an improvement of 0.1 from one year ago and the lowest ratio recorded in the history of the JVS. This is the ninth consecutive year that the number of unemployed people per vacancy has decreased in Kansas. In May 2018, there were 0.9 unemployed people per vacancy in the U.S while in the Midwest there were 0.7 unemployed people per vacancy.

Since the number of unemployed people and the number of vacancies are essentially even, this indicates that there are jobs available for almost everyone in the Kansas labor force. However, there may be a skills or location mismatch between unemployed people and the available positions leading to continued difficulty finding and filling jobs. One benefit of the tightening labor market is it may eventually lead to an increase in wages as the supply of workers for available positions continues to decrease.

The top 10 occupations with the most vacancies in Kansas are shown in Chart 20 left. Also shown is the average lowest hourly wage offered for vacancies in each of those occupations. These ten occupations reflect a combination of occupations with high turnover, increased demand, and a continuing shortage of qualified workers.

Job Vacancies

2,3101,580

1,5501,457

1,2211,161

1,1141,063

1,0241,002

$8.22 $8.93 $9.07

$21.84 $14.34

$10.36 $18.26

$9.86 $7.70

$9.77

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

Cashiers

Retail Salespersons

Registered Nurses

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Nursing Assistants

Heavy and Tractor Trailer Truck Drivers

Customer Service Representatives

Waiters and Waitresses

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

Average Hourly Lowest Wage Offer

Vacancies

Occ

up

atio

nal

Tit

le

Chart 20Most Vacant Occupations

KansasSecond Quarter 2018

Vacancies (Top Scale) Average Hourly Lowest Wage Offer (Bottom Scale)

Source: KDOL Labor Market Information Services, Spring 2018 Kansas Job Vacancy Survey

Job Vacancies Page 30

Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food was the occupation with the most openings in Kansas with 2,310 job vacancies. Most of the occupations in the top ten are low paying occupations with high turnover rates leading to a greater number of job vacancies. There are four occupations in the top 10 that pay more than $10 per hour. These occupations are normally found in two industries that have been expanding in recent years, health care and social assistance and transportation and warehousing. Registered nurses were the highest paying occupation in the top 10 with nursing assistants being the other health care related occupation in the list. In transportation and warehouse related jobs, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers were the second highest paying occupation in the top 10 with laborers and freight, stock, and material movers hand, being the third highest paying. The top 10 most vacant occupations accounted for 27.2 percent of the job vacancies in Kansas.

Chart 21 below, shows the percentage of job vacancies by educational requirement as well as the average lowest hourly wage offered by educational requirement. As expected, the average starting pay increases with the amount of education required. Openings with no educational requirements had the lowest average lowest hourly wage offered at $10.71, while vacancies requiring a doctoral or professional degree had the highest at $34.42. The average lowest wage offer for all vacancies was $13.20 per hour. The majority of vacancies, 66.9 percent, required a high school diploma or GED or had no educational requirements at all. About 30 percent of openings required a post-secondary vocational certificate, an associate degree, or a bachelor's degree while only a small percentage of vacancies required a postgraduate degree.

$10.71 $12.37

$14.32

$20.87 $22.41

$28.50

$34.42

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

NoRequirement

HighSchool

Diploma/GED

VocationalCertificate

AssociateDegree

Bachelor'sDegree

MastersDegree

Doctoral orProfessional

Degree

Aver

age

Low

est H

ourly

Wag

e O

ffer

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al J

ob V

acan

cies

Educational Requirement

Chart 21Job Vacancies by Educational Requirement

KansasSecond Quarter 2018

% of Vacancies (Left Scale)Average Hourly Minimum Wage Offer (Right Scale)

Source: KDOL Labor Market Information Services, Spring 2018 Kansas Job Vacancy Survey

Short-term Projections

Short-term Projections Page 31

Short-term projections are approximations of near-future job levels. This is estimated using a combination of methods considering trends in past job levels and looking at the relationships between job levels and hours worked, consumer expectations, interest rates, money supply and price indices. Observed trends and relationships are held constant, but no assumptions are made about any other variable including the business cycle. Short-term projections reflect changes in cyclical, structural and frictional factors.

Projections inform researchers and other interested parties about the future direction of the labor market and its implications for the economy. Projections also play an important role in making career choices. While general interest in certain careers may impact occupational choices, information about future trends in employment or demand for labor helps identify practical options to ensure future job security.

Projections use the most comprehensive measure of jobs. This measure includes jobs covered by unemployment insurance as well as non-covered jobs. Data on self-employed workers are calculated by applying national staffing patterns to state employment data. LMIS conducts school and church surveys that provide information about jobs that are not covered by unemployment insurance. Data on railroad workers are sourced from the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB).

Note that the current round of projections were calculated using the new separations methodology. The previous methodology only captured workers who took a once-traditional career path by staying in the same industry or occupation until retirement, and reflected primarily retirement and death as a reason for exiting the workforce. But the workforce is constantly evolving, and workers leave an occupation for reasons other than retirement or death, such as changing careers, being promoted to management or completing a retraining program. The separations methodology accounts for different types of job changes.

Table 21 left, shows short-term projections by industry for the first quarter 2019 from the first quarter 2017. The top 10 industries by numerical change are shown. Total jobs are expected to increase by 0.8 percent, to 1,484,483, over the two-year period. The annual average growth rate is 0.4 percent. The private sector – combined with public schools and hospitals – is expected to add 11,797 jobs, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5 percent. The government sector - excluding schools

and hospitals - is expected to decrease by 436 jobs to 98,679, an average annual decline of 0.2 percent. For the projections program, public schools are included in the educational services industry, and public hospitals are in the health care and social assistance industry. The sectors expected to add the most jobs over the next two years are health care and social assistance, transportation and warehousing, and accommodation and food services.


Table 22 above, shows the top 10 growing occupational groups by numerical change. Over the projection period, transportation and material moving occupations are expected to add 2,059 jobs. The other occupational groups projected to grow by more than 1,000 jobs are food preparation and serving related, healthcare practitioners and technical, personal care and service, and business and financial operations.

The personal care and service occupations and transportation and moving occupations tied for the highest annual average growth rate at 1.1 percent. It is expected that there will be 333,241 openings over the projection period, or an average of 166,621 per year from new and replacement jobs. Approximately 96.4 percent or 160,681 openings will be replacement openings.

BLS assigns the level of education typically needed to enter each occupation. There are eight categories shown in Table 23 below. The greatest numerical change in jobs is projected for those that do not require any formal education credential, adding 3,468 jobs. There are 3,465 additional jobs projected that require a bachelor’s degree, and 2,902 additional jobs over the two-year projection period that require a high school diploma or equivalent. The fastest growing group is occupations that require a master’s degree, which are growing at a rate of 1.5 percent.


Total jobs are also estimated by projection region. Almost three-quarters of the projected job growth over the next two years, 72.9 percent, is projected to occur in the Kansas City Region. The South Central and Northeast regions are also projected to add at least 1,000 jobs over the projection period. Table 24 below, shows the short-term projections by region. Map 7 below, shows the projection regions.

Long-term Projections Page 34

Long-term Projections

Every two years, each of the 50 states completes long-term projections in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Labor. The base year used in these projections is 2016 and the projection year is 2026. Statewide projections are released in even numbered years, while regional projections are published during odd numbered years.

Kansas total jobs in all industries are expected to grow by 63,723 to 1,545,629 jobs in 2026, an increase of 4.3 percent over the 10-year period. This averages out to 6,372 jobs per year, a 0.4 percent average annual growth. Goods-producing industries are projected to decline at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent from 2016 to 2026. Service providing industries are projected to grow at 0.6 percent annually over that period.

The primary objective of the long-term projections process is to approximate the level of jobs 10 years out from the base period. This level is projected using a variety of projection methods including those that consider historical trends and those that factor in outside variables. One important assumption is used in formulating long-term projections. It is assumed the Kansas labor market will be in full employment in the projected year. This means the labor market will be in equilibrium and labor supply will meet labor demand. In this way, the projections do not predict changes in the business cycle, and instead project the trend in long-term growth.

Long-term projections play an important role for students and others making career choices. Information about future trends in job growth and demand for labor is vital to making these life decisions.

Long-term projections use the most comprehensive measure of jobs. This includes jobs covered by unemployment insurance and those not covered by unemployment insurance. Data measuring jobs not covered by unemployment insurance is collected using a variety of sources. Data on self-employed workers is calculated by applying national staffing patterns to state employment data. LMIS conducts school and church surveys that provide information about jobs which are not covered by unemployment insurance. Data on railroad workers is sourced from the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB).

Table 25 next page, shows long-term projections for the projected year 2026 from the base year 2016. The top 10 industries by numerical change are shown. The number of jobs in all industries is projected to grow at the rate of 0.4 percent per year. This is in line with the growth rate experienced in the 10 years from 2006 to 2016 (+0.3 percent annually). The rate of job growth in Kansas has slowed since 2000. From 1990 to 2000, job growth averaged 2.1 percent annually. One reason for the strong growth rate in Kansas during the 1990’s was the nation had a long period of economic expansion from March 1991 to March 2001. During this time period worker productivity rose in part due to the technological advancement brought on by widespread internet use, but this growth ended when the dot.com bubble burst.


The goods producing industries (construction, manufacturing, and natural resources and mining) are projected to decline by 498 jobs per year, an annual rate of decline of 0.2 percent. The remaining industries fall under the service providing sector which is projected to have a positive growth rate of 0.6 percent, adding 6,575 jobs annually.

The health care and social assistance industry is projected to gain the largest number of jobs over the 10 year period with an additional 20,753 jobs. This major industry consists of four underlying industries: ambulatory health care services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities and social assistance. The fastest rate of growth of these underlying industries is projected to be in social assistance gaining 2.5 percent annually.

Of the major industries, management of companies and enterprises is projected to grow at the fastest rate, 1.9 percent annually. Employers in management of companies and enterprises administer, oversee and manage establishments involved in organizational planning for the company or are establishments that hold the securities of enterprises for the purpose of owning a controlling interest or influencing management decisions of that enterprise.

Table 26 next page, shows the top 10 occupational groups projected to gain the largest number of jobs over the projection period. Personal care and service occupations is projected to gain 9,114 jobs during the 10 year period. This is an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. The personal care and service group of occupations is made up of eight sub groups, supervisors of personal care and service workers; animal care and service workers; entertainment attendants and related workers; funeral service workers; personal appearance workers; baggage porters, bellhops and concierges; tour and travel guides; and other personal care and service workers. The largest of these eight categories in Kansas is other personal care and service workers with 38,730 workers in 2016. Over 75 percent of this group is made up by two occupations, personal care aides and childcare workers.

The occupational group projected to grow at the fastest rate over the projection period is also personal care and service occupations. This occupational group is projected to grow by 1.5 percent on average annually.


BLS assigns the level of education typically needed to enter each detailed occupation. Each occupation falls under one of eight education levels. As shown in Table 27 below, the largest increase in jobs is projected to be in those occupations classified as bachelor’s degree gaining 25,431 jobs over the projection period. These occupations made up 20 percent of all occupations in 2016. This is the first round of projections showing Bachelor’s degree as the top educational classification in numerical growth. In prior rounds, high school diploma has been projected to add the most jobs over the projection period.

The educational categories projected to grow the fastest are master’s degree and bachelor’s degree. These are projected to grow at a rate of 10.2 percent and 8.6 percent over the 10 year period.

Occupational classification by years of work experience typically need to enter the occupation is also available. This can be more than 5 years, less than 5 years or none. A third classification is available that organizes occupations by typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency. This can be long-term on-the-job training (more than one year), moderate-term on-the-job training (one month to one year), short-term on-the-job training (less than one month), internship/residency, or none. This information is available on the KDOL, Labor Market Information Services (LMIS) website.

High Demand Occupations

High Demand Occupations Page 37

High demand occupations are jobs in greatest demand by employers in Kansas. The list of these occupations is provided to assist students, educators, administrators and others in making informed decisions regarding career paths. High demand occupations have higher than average combined current and projected (short-term and long-term) demand in the state. It combines occupational projection data with education, training and wage information to give a complete picture of each occupation.

The list is compiled by measuring the number of actual and projected job openings in each occupation. These openings can be the result of growth or replacement. Openings resulting from growth occur when an industry expands requiring more workers. Openings from replacement occur when a worker decides to leave an occupation and move to another occupation, or decides to stop working.

Each occupation receives a score based on the current number of openings, determined by the JVS, the projected number of openings in two years as indicated in the Short-Term Projections program and the projected number of openings in 10 years, calculated by the Long-Term Projections program. Each of these scores are added together to get a total score. A cumulative score of 30 indicates the highest demand occupations, while a score of zero shows an average or below average demand relative to all occupations.

Table 28 below, displays the top high demand occupations. These 13 occupations received the maximum score of 30. These occupations currently have the most openings and are projected to have the most openings in 2019 and 2026.

High Demand Occupations Page 38

Ten of the 13 occupations in Table 28 page 37, require only a high school diploma or have no educational requirements, as noted in the education column. These occupations are attainable for workers with little to no education or training. Occupations requiring little training or education tend to have lower wages. Those ten occupations in this list average $23,331 per year in median wage. Because of the low wages and the fact that many of these occupations are part-time, employers are able to hire more workers. This partly explains the high demand score.

One other explanation is that there is a high level of turnover in these occupations. Many of the openings in these occupations are the result of people leaving the occupation to move to another occupation and not the result of industry growth. Furthermore, many of the occupations with the highest replacement rate are those that require only a high school education or less and little or no training.

Table 29 below, highlights the top 10 in-demand occupations that typically require one or more of the following: a post-secondary certificate or degree, at least one year on the job training, an internship, an apprenticeship, or 5 years of work experience. Included in this table are the educational or training paths that lead to these occupations.

The average median wage for the 224 high demand occupations meeting these education or training qualifications is $58,143. The average median wage for all 441 high demand occupations is $46,149. This means that the occupations that require higher levels of education or training earn more on average than the occupations that require less education and training.

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Inflation and Real Wages Page 39

Inflation and Real Wages

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Kansas City 2.3% 3.4% -0.1% 2.2% 4.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% -0.2% 0.8% 1.9%U.S. 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1%Midwest 2.7% 3.7% -0.6% 2.0% 3.2% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% -0.5% 0.8% 1.7%

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Chart 22Percent Change in Consumer Price Index

Midwest, Kansas City and U.S.2007 - 2017

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is a measure of the prices paid by consumers for a representative market basket. The market basket is based on goods and services commonly purchased by families. The most general measure of the CPI is the CPI-U, which is the CPI of all urban consumers. CPI-U is the most commonly used measure of inflation.

Chart 22 left, indicates the percent change in the CPI-U of three different areas – the U.S., the Midwest region, which Kansas and 11 other states are located in, and the Kansas City MSA. As seen in the chart, since 2007 inflation in all three areas has generally followed the same trend. In 2017, the Midwest recorded 1.7 percent inflation, the Kansas City MSA experienced 1.9 percent inflation and the U.S. recorded 2.1 percent inflation.

As shown in Table 30 left, the largest contributor to inflation in the Kansas City MSA and the U.S. and a significant contributor in the Midwest was a rise in transportation prices which is mostly due to increases in the cost of gasoline. The other category that increased by at least two percent in all three geographies was housing due to increases in rent/mortgage payments as well as utility costs. Health care prices also increased by at least two percent in the Midwest and the U.S. and 1.9 percent in the Kansas City MSA.

Wages and salaries accounted for 49.0 percent of the total personal income in Kansas in 2017, and help determine the health of the economy. Since inflation can erode customer purchasing power, real

wages provide a better estimate of economic health. Table 31 left, lists the real average weekly wages for Kansas and the U.S. in 2017 dollars while Chart 23 below, displays the over the year percent change in real average weekly wages. The real average weekly wage in Kansas increased over the year by $5, or 0.6 percent, to $868 in 2017. The U.S. recorded a real average weekly wage of $1,065, which is an increase of $12, or 1.1 percent. Since 2007, Kansas and the U.S. have experienced similar wage growth, with Kansas real wages increasing by 5.1 percent and U.S. real wages increasing by 5.3 percent.

Real Wages

Inflation and Real Wages Page 40

Personal Income

Personal Income Page 41

Personal income is an important measure of economic health and well-being. Personal income includes earnings, property income and transfer payments.

In 2017, Kansas’ total personal income increased by 1.0 percent to $138.7 billion. Nationally, personal income increased 3.1 percent to $16.4 trillion. Chart 24 below, displays personal income growth in Kansas and the U.S. since 2007. In Kansas, approximately half of the personal income growth since 2016 was due to a $720 million increase, or 2.7 percent, in dividends, interest and rent income. The two other components of personal income also increased. Net work earnings increased by 0.3 percent with growth in wages and salaries and nonfarm proprietor income being held back by a 45.7 percent reduction in farm proprietor income. Income from personal current transfer receipts grew by 1.9 percent. Personal current transfer receipts primarily consist of government payments to individuals and nonprofit institutions, i.e. government benefit payments and grants, along with business liability payments and donations to nonprofit institutions.

Kansas ranked 47th in 2017 among the 50 states in percent change of personal income. The Plains region as a whole had the worst growth rate of any Bureau of Economic Analysis region in 2017 at 1.7 percent. The Plains region is defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Total personal income in Kansas has accounted for a steady proportion of the nationwide total. In 2017, Kansas’ total personal income was 0.8 percent of total personal income in the U.S., a 0.1 percentage point decrease from 2016.

Also measured is per capita personal income which shows the average share of personal income for each individual in an area. Per capita personal income is calculated by dividing total personal income by the population for an area. It measures the wealth of the population and provides a common measure for evaluating and comparing countries, states or areas.

Personal Income Page 42

Chart 25 below, illustrates the per capita personal income in Kansas and the U.S. In 2017, Kansas recorded a Per Capita Personal Income of $47,603, while the U.S. recorded a per capita personal income of $50,392. This means Kansas per capita personal income is 94.5 percent of the U.S. value, the fourth straight year the percentage has decreased. Kansas ranks 24th out of the 50 states in terms of per capita personal income. From 2016 to 2017, Kansas’ per capita income increased 0.8 percent, and the nation’s increased 2.4 percent. The Plains region recorded an increase of 1.2 percent, the lowest growth rate of any region.

Per capita personal income is calculated by dividing total personal income by the population for an area.

Productivity

Productivity Page 43

Productivity is the amount of output produced by one unit of input, so labor productivity is the output produced by a unit of labor. This can be measured either as productivity per worker or productivity per hour worked. This section reviews productivity per person employed in the Kansas economy, which is calculated by dividing the total output by the total number of people employed in a given year. Output is measured using real gross domestic product (GDP) in chained 2009 dollars. The number of individuals employed is estimated through the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Labor productivity improves when real GDP grows at a faster rate than employment.

Labor productivity is important because it impacts profits, labor demand and labor compensation. Holding all else constant, when labor productivity improves, companies’ profits increase because they are able to increase outputs while still using the same amount of labor.

Labor demand is impacted by the scale and substitution effects associated with labor productivity. If wages are held constant, then the increase in productivity will lower the unit cost of labor and cause demand for labor to increase in the short run; this is the scale effect. Capital is used along with labor in the production of goods and services. Capital includes the buildings, equipment, and machinery used in the production process. In the short run it is assumed that capital is fixed, but in the long run firms can shift to using more labor and less capital; this is the substitution effect. If growth in wages is less than the growth in labor productivity, then higher labor demand will occur because labor inputs are cheaper relative to capital.

Labor compensation is impacted by labor productivity. Higher productivity is rewarded with higher compensation – wages and fringe benefits. Higher compensation leads to a higher standard of living if compensation growth exceeds the rate of inflation.

Holding all else constant, when labor productivity improves, companies’ profits increase because they are able to increase outputs while still using the same amount of labor.

Productivity Page 44

Table 32 below, shows productivity for Kansas and the US from 2006 to 2017. On average, a worker in Kansas produced $85,861 of goods or services in 2006, and produced $96,957 in 2017. Over this time frame, productivity in Kansas increased at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent, while productivity for the U.S. increased at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent. In 2006, productivity per worker was $15,123 lower in Kansas than the U.S., but that gap narrowed to $12,094 by 2017.

Changes in labor productivity can occur because of changes in: human capital, capital-labor ratio, technology, economies of scale and management practices. Table 33 below, shows an index of labor productivity with 2006 as the base year. The index reflects the percentage change in labor productivity since 2006. An index above 100 is a percentage increase compared to the 2006 level. In Kansas, labor productivity decreased slightly from 2016 to 2017 but overall the trend has been upward. Since 2006, labor productivity in Kansas increased by a total of 12.9 percent while U.S. productivity has increased by 8.0 percent.

Gross Domestic Product

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Chart 26Percent Change in Real GDP

Kansas and U.S.2007 - 2017

Kansas Real U.S. Real

Note: Real GDP is in chained 2009 dollars. GDP in Kansas excludes the compensation of federal civilian and military personnel stationed abroad and government consumption of fixed capital for military structures located abroad and for military equipment, exept office equipment. GDP in the U.S. includes these items.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Chart 27Percent Change in Nominal GDP

Kansas and U.S.2007 - 2017

Kansas Nominal U.S. Nominal

Note: GDP in Kansas excludes the compensation of federal civilian and military personnel stationed abroad and government consumption of fixed capital for military structures located abroad and for military equipment, exept office equipment. Nominal and real GDP in the U.S. includes these items.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Gross Domestic Product Page 45

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total economic output of an area. It is commonly used as one of the primary measures of economic performance and health of an area. There are two types of GDP discussed in this report: nominal GDP, which is measured in current dollars, and real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation. Real GDP allows better year-to-year comparisons by removing the influence inflation has on nominal GDP. In this report, real GDP is fixed to 2009 dollars.

According to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP in Kansas decreased by 0.1 percent in 2017 to $138.2 billion, the first time it has decreased since 2009. This is due to GDP growth not keeping up with inflation. Chart 26 below, displays percent change in the Kansas and U.S. real GDP since 2007. Kansas was one of three states to record a decline in real GDP during 2017. The Plains region also struggled with GDP growth in 2017 as real GDP grew by 1.0 percent, the lowest growth of any region. From 2016 to 2017, the U.S. real GDP increased by 2.1 percent to $16.7 trillion.

As displayed in Chart 27 left, Kansas’ nominal GDP in 2017 was $157.8 billion, a 1.9 percent increase. Kansas ranks 49th out of the 50 states in percent growth in nominal GDP. The Plains region nominal GDP grew by 2.8 percent in 2017. That was the lowest growth rate of any region. In 2017, the U.S. nominal GDP increased by 4.1 percent to $19.3 trillion.


To compare areas with different population levels, GDP per capita is calculated by dividing GDP by the population of an area. A historical look at the real GDP per capita in Kansas and the U.S. is shown in Chart 28 below. Kansas recorded a real GDP per capita of $47,435 in 2017, a 0.2 percent decrease from 2016. Kansas ranks 27th out of the 50 states in real GDP per capita and was one of six states to record a decline in GDP per capita. The Plains region struggled in this category too, recording only 0.5 percent growth in 2017, the worst of any region. The U.S. real GDP per capita rose 1.3 percent to $51,337 from 2016 to 2017.

In Kansas, eight of the 11 major industries increased their contribution to nominal GDP from 2016 to 2017. This is shown in Table 34 next page. The trade, transportation and utilities industry recorded the largest increase in GDP, increasing by $843 million. GDP growth was throughout the industry with most of the increase occurring in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing. The other two industries that experienced GDP growth of at least $500 million were financial activities and manufacturing. Most of the growth in financial activities occurred in real estate and rental and leasing while manufacturing gains were almost all in nondurable goods manufacturing. Education and health services experienced the largest percent growth in GDP of any major industry with an increase of 3.5 percent and was fifth in numerical growth at $432 million. Most of the growth was in health care and social assistance.


The largest decline in GDP was recorded in natural resources and mining. The industry decreased by $264 million, or 4.2 percent, due to a large decline in agriculture GDP. However, mining GDP, which is mostly made up of oil and gas in Kansas, did increase for the first time since 2013. Since 2013, natural resources and mining GDP has decreased 45.3 percent. This is due to agriculture GDP decreasing by 40.7 percent and mining GDP decreasing by 59.1 percent in that time frame. The largest percent decrease in GDP was recorded in information, which experienced a 5.4 percent decline or $242 million. Construction was the other industry to record a GDP decrease, declining by $98 million, or 1.6 percent.

Real GDP allows better year-to-year comparisons by removing the influence inflation has on nominal GDP. In this report, real GDP is fixed to 2009 dollars.

Kansas Exports

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Chart 29Kansas Export Sales

2007 - 2017

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration

Kansas Exports Page 48

Kansas businesses compete in a global marketplace, where economic growth contributes to the rising demand for Kansas products. Exports data shows how competitive Kansas is in the global economy. When the global economy is in good shape, demand for products in which Kansas has a competitive advantage rises. The value of the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies also has an effect on exports. If the U.S. dollar increases in value, then demand for exports may go down while the opposite is true when the value of the U.S. dollar decreases. From 2016 to 2017, the value of the U.S. dollar remained relatively the same as compared to most other major world currencies.

Kansas export sales totaled $11.2 billion in 2017, as seen in Chart 29 below. This represents a $1.1 billion increase in export sales since 2016, or 10.7 percent. This is the first time export sales have increased since 2013. The majority of the increase occurred in the transportation equipment and food manufacturing sectors. This is the seventh consecutive year that Kansas export sales have exceeded $10 billion while export sales are 9.4 percent higher than 10 years ago.


As seen in Chart 30 below, the transportation equipment manufacturing sector was the sector with the highest export sales in 2017, accounting for 26.6 percent of Kansas exports. This sector includes industries that produce aerospace parts and products, motor vehicle parts and assembly, and other transportation equipment manufacturing. Export sales for this sector totaled nearly $3 billion, an increase of $574.7 million, or 23.8 percent, from 2016. This was the largest over the year increase in exports of any sector. Civilian aircraft, engines and parts accounted for $2.6 billion of the sales in transportation equipment manufacturing. This represents the highest total for any individual product produced in Kansas, as displayed in Chart 31 below. In fact, civilian aircraft, engines and parts make up 22.9 percent of Kansas export sales. Kansas companies exported $1.1 billion worth of transportation equipment to Canada, the most of any country. Mexico and Germany were the second and third largest importers of Kansas transportation equipment.


The food manufacturing sector transforms livestock and agricultural products into products for intermediate or final consumption. This sector recorded the second most export sales in 2017, with $2.3 billion in sales. This is an increase from 2016 of $268.8 million, or 13.6 percent. The growth in exports in this sector can be mostly attributed to a $194.1 million increase in boneless beef sales. In 2017, boneless fresh or chilled beef had the third highest export sales of any product and boneless frozen beef was sixth. Japan was the largest importer of Kansas food products in 2017, followed by Mexico and Canada.

Agricultural products were third in export sales in 2017 but was the only one of the top six exporting industries to record a decline in sales. $1.6 billion in export sales were recorded in this sector, a decrease of $13.9 million, or 0.9 percent. Agricultural export sales are down 39.7 percent from the record high recorded in 2013. The main contributors to the decline in 2017 was an $87.3 million decrease in corn export sales and a $52.3 million decline in grain sorghum sales. Wheat remained the second most exported product by sales in 2017, with $832.5 million in sales, a decrease of $17.4 million. Soybeans recorded the fourth highest amount of export sales of any product and were a bright spot in the agriculture sector, with export sales increasing $161.8 million. Corn was the other agricultural product in the top 10 in export sales, recording $217.7 million in sales. Almost half of agricultural export sales, 46.7 percent, were to Mexico while Nigeria and China also imported over $100 million worth of agricultural products.

The machinery manufacturing sector was fourth in export sales in 2017 at $996.6 million, an increase of $47.1 million from 2016. The chemical manufacturing sector was fifth in export sales in 2017 at $860.2 million, a growth of $64.8 million from 2016. Computer and electronic product manufacturing was sixth in export sales in 2017 at $703.0 million, a $29.6 million increase. The six industries detailed in this report are responsible for 83.4 percent of export sales in Kansas and have been the top six exporting industries every year data is available. Chart 32 below, details the export sales in those six industries from 2007 through 2017.

Table 35 below, shows the countries that imported the largest dollar amount of goods and services from Kansas. Canada was the state’s largest trading partner in 2017, importing approximately $2.5 billion in goods and services. This amounts to a 40.6 percent increase from 2016 to 2017. Most of the increase is due to a $595.5 increase in transportation equipment sales. About two-thirds of export sales are in one of three sectors: transportation equipment manufacturing, machinery manufacturing and food manufacturing.

Mexico imported the second largest amount of Kansas products in 2017 with approximately $1.9 billion in sales. Export sales to Mexico increased by $17.2 million, or 0.9 percent, in 2017. Export sales to Canada and Mexico make up 39.1 percent of total Kansas exports. Approximately 60 percent of export sales to Mexico in 2017 were agricultural or food manufacturing products, with the transportation equipment manufacturing and chemical manufacturing sectors also recording notable export sales.

Japan was the third largest importer of Kansas products in 2017, with $980.3 million in sales. This represents a $174.6 million increase in exports, or 21.7 percent. Food manufacturing products make up $720.8 million, or 73.5 percent, of the export sales. China was the other country to import at least $500 million of Kansas products in 2017. Export sales to China totaled $705.8 million, a decline of $39.3 million from 2016. About half of the export sales to China were in one of three sectors: food manufacturing, special classification provisions and agricultural products. Special classification provisions include repaired/refurbished items, shipping containers, charitable contributions and military equipment.


Economist Note Page 52

Economist Note: Labor Force Participation

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Chart 33Labor Force Participation Rate

Kansas and U.S.1997-2017Kansas U.S.

Source: Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Services and the Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey (CPS)

Labor force participation rates in Kansas and the U.S. have shown an overall decline during the past two decades. Although the participation rate did increase from 2001 to 2009 in Kansas, there has been a notable decline since 2009 for Kansas and the U.S. as seen in Chart 33 below. What are some of the underlying demographic shifts contributing to the overall decline in the labor force participation rate? Looking at the age distribution and labor force trends for different age groups can provide insight into the downward trend in labor force participation rates.

The labor force participation rate measures the percentage of the population that chooses to participate in the labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces monthly estimates of the labor force participation rate for states and the U.S. This rate is calculated by dividing the total labor force by the total population for a given geographic area. The total population includes all civilian noninstitutionalized individuals who are 16 years or older. The labor force is a subset of this population and it includes all employed individuals as well as unemployed individuals who have looked for work in the past four weeks.

The data used to calculate the labor force participation rate is collected through the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of approximately 60,000 households throughout the U.S. These survey results are used directly to calculate the national labor force participation rate. The survey sample is smaller when broken out for state level estimates, so the CPS is used as the primary input for model based estimates at the state level. The model also includes employment data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and unemployment insurance claims data collected from state workforce agencies. These official model based estimates reduce some of the volatility that can occur because of the smaller sample size for the state level monthly CPS estimates,

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Chart 34Labor Force Participation Rate by Age

Kansas and U.S.1997-2017

Kansas Age 16-24 Kansas Age 25-54 Kansas Age 55+U.S. Age 16-24 U.S. Age 25-54 U.S. Age 55+



but the model based estimates are only produced for the total labor force, thus they lack demographic detail. For the purposes of this article, all Kansas labor force estimates are based on CPS results. Annual averages are used to remove seasonal fluctuations in the data and help to mitigate some of the monthly variability for the sample based estimates.

When analyzing labor force participation rates it is important to look at demographic characteristics of the population, such as age. Understanding the age distribution of a population is essential when looking at labor force trends. In Kansas, the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older has increased by an average annual rate of 0.7 percent from 1997 to 2017, but all of that growth is due to increases in the population age 55 and older which increased by an average annual rate of 2.3 percent. The 16 to 24 year old age group and 25 to 54 age group showed relatively little change over this time period. This has important implications for the labor force because participation rates vary for different age groups. Chart 34 below, displays the labor force participation rates for Kansas and the U.S. for the 16 to 24 year old age group, 25 to 54 year old age group, and the 55 and older age group. Prime age workers, age 25 to 54, have the highest labor force participation rates, followed by the 16 to 24 age group, and lastly the 55 and older age group which has the lowest participation rates. The changing age distribution of the population in Kansas and the U.S. has put downward pressure on the overall labor force participation rate as the 55 and older age group has become a larger share of the total population.

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Chart 35Not in Labor Force Due to Being in School

Age 16-19Kansas

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In addition to the shifting age distribution, there are other factors impacting participation rates within each of these age groups. The youngest labor force group, age 16 to 24, has seen the largest decline in participation since 1997, falling from 73.2 percent in 1997 to 62.6 percent in 2017. While the civilian noninstitutional population for this group showed little change over this time period, decreases in the labor force caused the participation rate to decline. More specifically, this drop was due to fewer teenagers participating in the labor force.

The number of individuals age 16 to 19 in the labor force has decreased by an average annual rate of 2.7 percent since 1997 as seen in Chart 35 below. By 2017 the labor force participation rate for the 16 to 19 age group fell to 40.5 percent from 64.5 percent in 1997. So why are fewer teenagers participating in the labor force? Teenage survey respondents are increasingly citing school as the reason why they are not in the labor force. In 2017, 89.3 percent of teenagers not in the labor force listed In School as the reason why. National trends also show a decreasing participation rate for teenagers. In a Monthly Labor Review article published by BLS on teen labor force participation, Teresa Morisi suggests that some factors contributing to the long-term trend in teenage labor force participation include increased school enrollment, particularly during the summer; increased emphasis on preparing for college and taking more advanced courses while in high school; increased time spent participating in school activities; and labor market competition for the types of jobs that teenagers typically hold (Morisi 2017).


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Chart 36Labor Force Participation Rate by Educational Attainment

Age 25-54Kansas

1997-2017Less than HS HS grad, no college Some college or Associate degree Bachelor's degree and higher LFPR Total


Prime age workers, age 25-54, have the highest labor force participation rate. The labor force participation rate remains high for prime age workers in Kansas, but it has decreased from 87.7 percent in 1997 to 84.6 percent in 2017. A notable shift for individuals in this age group is in Labor Force Participation Rates by Educational Attainment. As shown in Chart 36 below, the participation rate has remained relatively stable for individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher and for individuals with less than a high school diploma. The bachelor’s degree or higher category is the largest group and represents 40.1 percent of the prime age population, while less than a high school diploma is the smallest category representing only 7.7 percent of the population. The labor force participation rate has been decreasing for individuals who have graduated from high school (no college) and for those who have attended some college or completed an associate degree. There was a slight increase for these groups in 2015, but the overall trend has put downward pressure on total labor force participation of prime age workers in Kansas.

Research by Didem Tüzemen suggests that this is likely due to job polarization, when employment becomes more concentrated in low- and high-skill jobs with fewer middle-skill jobs available (Tüzemen 2018). She notes that technology has played a part in this change because middle-skill jobs are typically more routine and thus prone to automation. Her research focuses on male participation rates and she finds that lower educational attainment categories tend to have a higher percentage of workers in middle-skill jobs and that workers who are displaced from middle-skill occupations are more likely to drop out of the labor force. This is likely contributing to the decline in participation rates for prime age individuals in Kansas.


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Chart 37Reasons for Not Being in the Labor Force

Age 25-54Kansas

1997-2017Disabled Ill In Retirement In School Not in Universe Something Else/Other Taking Care Of House Or Family


In contrast with the 16 to 24 age group, the reasons why prime age individuals choose not to participate in the labor force are more varied. As displayed in Chart 37 below, the most common reasons noted by prime age individuals for not participating in the labor force are taking care of house or family (48.3 percent of not in labor force) and disabled (31.6 percent).

The disabled category has shown the largest percent increase, with average annual growth of 3.0 percent since 1997. Alan Krueger has researched labor force participation in the U.S., including the health status of individuals not in the labor force. He analyzed national CPS data from 2008 to 2017 and found increased probability of not participating in the labor force for people who reported a disability, so even though the overall labor market was improving, individuals reporting a disability were not rejoining the labor force (Krueger 2017). Krueger also conducted his own survey in 2016, the Princeton Pain Survey, in which he asked prime age men who are not in the labor force about pain, their use of pain medication, and how this impacts their labor force participation. He found that 47 percent of respondents reported taking pain medication during the previous day and 40 percent reported that pain prevents them from working (Krueger 2017). Addressing the increase in prime age individuals reporting disability as the reason for staying out of the labor force has important implications for the labor force participation rate of this age group.


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Chart 38Not in Labor Force Due to Retirement

Age 55+Kansas

1997-2017


The 55 and older age group has actually seen an increase in labor force participation from 1997 to 2017, but the overall participation rate remains much lower than for prime age workers and those age 16 to 24. The 55 and older age group has increased significantly since 1997 due to the aging of the baby boomer generation. Baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964, so individuals in this generation were 53 to 71 years old in 2017. As baby boomers have aged into the 55 and over category, the age distribution has shifted, with a larger share of the 55 and over population concentrated in ages 55-64 years. Participation rates are significantly higher for individuals age 55-64, at 62.8 percent in 2017, compared to individuals 65 and over, at 23.8 percent in 2017. This shift in the age distribution has contributed to the increasing participation rates for individuals 55 and over.

With the majority of baby boomers now in the 55 and over category, participation rates have leveled off at approximately 45 percent. This means that the majority of people in this age category are not in the labor force. Looking at the reported reasons for not participating in the labor force, the most common response for the 55 and over age group is retirement, more than 80 percent of individuals not in the labor force. Chart 38 below, shows the number of individuals reporting retirement from 1997 to 2017. The number of people reporting retirement has been increasing since 2009. This corresponds with the end of the recession and the oldest baby boomers becoming eligible to begin receiving Social Security benefits.


All of these demographic shifts have impacted the labor force participation rate in Kansas. Many of these changes are part of long-term national trends and not unique to the state. Individuals age 16 to 24 have seen the biggest decrease in labor force participation. This is due to teenagers who have increasingly reported school as their reason for not participating in the labor force. Prime age workers continue to have the highest labor force participation, but have seen some declines. The most notable declines have been for the educational categories of high school degree, or some college or associate degree. This may be partially due to increased job polarization. There has also been an increase in the percentage of prime age workers who report staying out of the labor force due to disability. The most significant component impacting the labor force currently, in Kansas and the U.S., is the aging population. Changes in the 55 and older age group will likely continue to put downward pressure on labor force participation as baby boomers reach retirement age and leave the labor force.


Economist Note Sources

United States Census Bureau DataFerrett – Current Population Survey (CPS) data: https://dataferrett.census.gov/ Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor) National Labor Force Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/cps/ Teresa Morisi, “Teen labor force participation before and after the Great Recession and beyond”: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/article/teen-labor-force-participation-before-and- after-the-great-recession.htm Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Didem Tüzemen, “Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?” https://www.

kansascityfed.org/publications/research/er/articles/2018/1q18tuzemen-why-prime-age-men- vanishing

The Brookings Institution Alan Krueger, “Where have all the workers gone? An inquiry into the decline of the U.S. labor force participation rate”: https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/where-have-all-the-workers-

gone-an-inquiry-into-the-decline-of-the-u-s-labor-force-participation-rate/

Economist Note Sources Page 59

https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/er/articles/2018/1q18tuzemen-why-prime-age-men-vanishing



Sources

Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce) Home Page: https://www.bea.gov/index.htm Interactive Data: https://apps.bea.gov/itable/index.cfm

Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor) Home Page: https://www.bls.gov/ Consumer Price Index: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Current Employment Statistics (U.S. Nonfarm Jobs): https://www.bls.gov/ces/ Current Employment Statistics (State/MSA Nonfarm Jobs): https://www.bls.gov/sae/ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ Local Area Unemployment Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/lau/ National Labor Force Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/cps/ Occupational Employment Projections: https://www.bls.gov/emp/ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: https://www.bls.gov/cew/

Congressional Budget Office Home Page: https://www.cbo.gov/ The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52370

International Trade Administration (U.S. Department of Commerce) Home Page: https://www.trade.gov/ Data & Analysis: https://trade.gov/data.asp TradeStats Express: http://tse.export.gov/tse/tsehome.aspx

Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Services Home Page: https://klic.dol.ks.gov/vosnet/Default.aspx High Demand Occupations: https://klic.dol.ks.gov/gsipub/index.asp?docid=403 Job Vacancy Survey: https://klic.dol.ks.gov/jvs Short-Term & Long-Term Projections: http://klic.dol.ks.gov/gsipub/index.asp?docid=468

United States Census Bureau Home Page: https://www.census.gov/ American Community Survey: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/ American FactFinder: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml Foreign Trade Statistics: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html Population Estimates: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html

Sources Page 60

Kansas Department of LaborLabor Market Information Services

401 SW Topeka Blvd. Topeka, Kansas 66603 [email protected]

(785) 296-5000Fax: (785) 296-5286

https://klic.dol.ks.gov/

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