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Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis The Impacts of Inventory Additions within the Kansas City Marketplace December 18, 2018

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Page 1: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis

The Impacts of Inventory Additions within the Kansas City Marketplace

December 18, 2018

Page 2: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Objectives & Agenda

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Determine Impact of Inventory Additions

Compare & Contrast the Marketplace

Project Sales & Funding

Implications

Section 3 –MARKET ASSUMPTIONS & MODELING

Section 2 –COMPARABLE & COMPETITIVE MARKETS

Section 1 –IMPACT OF SUPPLY GROWTH

Page 3: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Process

• Analyzed STR reports

• Tracked added inventory

• Surveyed Market Mix

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Research and Outreach

Analysis and Projections

Comparison and

Assessments

• Compared results to other like destinations and national trends

• Reviewed health of Kansas City economy

• Present findings and opportunities

• Reviewed sales reports & impacts

• Prepared outlook & projections

• Developed future sales goals• Established associated

budget scenarios based on collections from Convention and Tourism Tax District

Page 4: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Section 1:Historic Impact of Kansas City Supply Growth

Page 5: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Lodging Supply & Performance

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD AnnualAvg

ADR $96.09 $98.27 $90.93 $91.69 $93.13 $97.00 $97.98 $101.34 $106.19 $108.87 $113.38 $116.64 $100.96

RevPAR $57.85 $58.87 $50.82 $53.49 $54.24 $57.59 $58.62 $64.96 $70.28 $69.96 $76.23 $77.36 $62.52

Occupancy 60.2% 59.9% 55.9% 58.3% 58.2% 59.4% 59.8% 64.1% 66.2% 64.3% 67.2% 66.3% 61.7%

New Rooms 152 72 0 343 0 232 132 0 0 227 232 357

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Kansas City Convention & Tourism District Lodging Performance

ADR RevPAR Occupancy New Rooms

72% Occupancy for “healthy”

lodging market

Source: Smith Travel Research, JLL

Page 6: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Future Room Inventory

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Year Number of Hotels

Cumulative Potential &

Added Inventory

Added Rooms(construction) Announced Potential Rooms

2017 83 13,121 N/A -

2018 91 13,946 825 -

2019 96 14,895 514 435 (4 properties)

2020 98 16,169 1,121 153 (1 property)

2021 98+ 16,411 - 242 (1 property)

2022 98+ 16,931 - 520 (3 properties)

Convention & Tourism Tax District

Source: Visit KC, STR, JLL

Page 7: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Tota

l Num

ber o

f Roo

ms

Occ

upan

cy R

ate

Convention & Tourism Tax District Occupancy with Added Supply

Full service Select service Occupancy at 67.2% Occupancy Projected Occupancy - No New Demand

72% Occupancy for “healthy”

lodging market

Impact of New Inventory on Occupancy

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: STR, JLL

Projected decrease in occupancy rate with no

change in demand

Stabilization line for 67% occupancy rate*

The path of doing nothing

Stability requires production of 483,938 new room nights in 2020

7

* “Stabilization occupancy” derived from taking the average occupancy for 2016, 2017, and 2018, with 2018 occupancy projected to be 66.5%.

Page 8: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Tota

l Num

ber o

f Roo

ms

Aver

age

Daily

Rat

e &

RevP

AR

Convention & Tourism Tax District Performance with Added Supply

full service select service RevPar ADRRevPAR

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact on ADR & RevPAR

Source: STR, JLL

Temptation point for lowering ADR2.8% actual CAGR in ADR

from 2009 through 2017

1.15% projected CAGR in ADR from 2017 through 2023

Projected RevPAR drops by 9.2% between 2017 and 2020

Page 9: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Section 2:Comparable & Competitive Markets

Page 10: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Baltimore Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus

Denver Indianapolis Kansas City Louisville

Memphis Milwaukee Minneapolis Nashville

Pittsburgh St Louis

Comparative/Competitive Set

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 11: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Hotel Inventory Comparison (Metro)

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: Smith Travel Research, JLL

Baltimore Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Denver Indianapolis Kansas City Louisville Memphis Milwaukee Minneapolis Nashville Pittsburgh St. Louis

Total 2017 Metro Room Inventory 34.477 29.200 24.141 28.084 47.327 32.062 32.224 21.332 23.256 17.486 42.358 41.629 29.031 38.894

% Under construction or planned 5.34 9.94 5.88 10.17 16.96 10.90 15.63 8.50 10.84 6.35 9.39 27.61 5.92 7.82

CAGR 2007-2017 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.8 2.2 2.7 3.6 1.6

Occupancy 2017 67.1% 64.3% 59.6% 65.7% 73.3% 65.1% 65.8% 63.1% 65.2% 62.0% 66.9% 74.0% 60.3% 65.2%

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

% o

f roo

ms

in p

ipel

ine

Num

ber o

f hot

el ro

oms

in th

ousa

nds

2017 Room Supply and Pipeline

Total 2017 Metro Room Inventory % Under construction or planned CAGR 2007-2017 Occupancy 2017

Page 12: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Room Inventory Additions (C/T Tax District)

3.5%

10.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Active Planning or Under Construction for Future Opening

1.5%

4.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Slated to Open by YE 2018

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: STR, JLL

Page 13: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

300+ Room Properties Under Construction

JW Marriott Nashville 533 RoomsOpened 7/2018No tax incentivesNo room block agreement

Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 RoomsProjected Opening 12/2018$81 million in tax incentivesAurora, CO – Outside of Denver

Loews Kansas City Convention Center 800 RoomsProjected Opening 3/2020$42 million in tax incentives + TIFRoom block agreement

Embassy Suites Kansas City Convention Center 321 RoomsProjected Opening 2020$40 million in tax credits + TIFNo room block agreement

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: JLL

Page 14: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

300+ Room Properties in Planning Stage

Property Room Count

Projected Opening

Development Stage Incentives

The Joseph A Luxury Collection Hotel Nashville 300 02/05/2021 Final Planning

Embassy Suites Nashville Downtown Convention Center 506 10/26/2019 Final Planning

Hyatt Regency Nashville Lifeway 591 10/01/2020 Final Planning

Drury Inn & Suites Plaza Nashville 390 11/12/2019 Final Planning

McGavock Street Hotel Nashville 470 07/31/2019 Planning

Hilton luxury brand property Indianapolis 814 2022 Planning TIF

Hilton brand property Indianapolis 600 2022 Planning TIF

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: STR, IndyStar.com, JLL

Page 15: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

<300 Room Properties Under Development

Metro Area Number of Properties Total Rooms Average Rooms

per Property% of Current Total

Inventory

Baltimore 30 3,359 112 10%

Cincinnati 41 4,403 107 15%

Cleveland 21 2,109 100 9%

Columbus 44 4,353 99 15%

Denver 85 9,163 108 19%

Indianapolis 42 4,690 112 14%

Kansas City 56 (#3) 4,915 (#3) 88 15%

Louisville 34 3,000 88 13%

Memphis 38 3,738 72 16%

Milwaukee 20 2,323 116 13%

Minneapolis 46 4,721 102 11%

Nashville 136 13,607 100 32%

Pittsburgh 40 3,484 87 12%

St. Louis 36 3,783 105 10%

Source: STR, JLL

Page 16: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Supply Growth vs. Performance (Metro)

9

R² = 0.003

0.01

0.51

1.01

1.51

2.01

2.51

3.01

3.51

4.01

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

RevP

AR G

row

th C

AGR

(201

3-20

22)

Supply Growth CAGR (2013-2022)

RevPAR Growth vs. Supply Growth in Comp Markets

Source: STR, JLL

High RevPAR Growth High Supply Growth

Low RevPAR GrowthHigh Supply Growth

High RevPAR Growth Low Supply Growth

Low RevPAR Growth Low Supply Growth

Kansas City

Denver

Nashville

BaltimoreSt Louis

Cleveland

MilwaukeeColumbus

Memphis

Cincinnati

MinneapolisLouisville

Pittsburgh

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 17: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Section 3:Kansas City Market Assumptions & Modeling

Page 18: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Projected Changes to Market MixRoom Nights

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Purpose of Overnight Trip to Kansas City C/T Tax District

CurrentMarket Mix(From hotel

survey)

Projected Opportunity

Future Market Mix

Convention & Sports Bids (Visit KC)

13% 15%

Hotel Group (In-house) 27% 27%

Marketable Leisure 21% 23%

Business Transient 26% 22%

Other (Misc. Overnight Leisure & VFR)

13% 13%

TOTAL 100% 100%

Page 19: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Market Mix Changes to Maintain OccupancyStabilized Room Night Progression

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Purpose of Overnight Trip to Kansas City C/T Tax District

2017Market Mix(Hotel survey)

2017 Room Nights

Booked (67% occ.)

2019 Room Night

Booking Goal

Future Projected

Market Mix

Future Projected

Room Night Bookings (67% occ.)

% Change from 2017 to

Future Projected

Convention & Sports Bids (Visit KC) 13% 418,381 451,687 15% 621,071 48%

Hotel Group (In-house) 27% 868,946 27% 1,117,929 29%

Marketable Leisure 21% 675,847 23% 952,309 41%

Business Transient 26% 836,763 22% 910,905 9%

Other (Misc. Overnight & VFR) 13% 418,381 13% 538,262 29%

TOTAL 100% 3,218,318 100% 4,140,476 29%

Page 20: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Market Mix Changes to Grow OccupancyHealthy Room Night Progression

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Purpose of Overnight Trip to Kansas City C/T Tax District

Future Projected

Market Mix

Future Projected

Room Nights (67% occ.)

Future Projected

Room Nights (72% occ.)

% Change from 2017 to

Healthy Future

Projected

Convention & Sports Bids (Visit KC) 15% 621,071 667,420 60%

Hotel Group (In-house) 27% 1,117,929 1,201,356 38%

Marketable Leisure 23% 952,309 1,023,377 51%

Business Transient 22% 910,905 978,883 17%

Other (Misc. Overnight & VFR) 13% 538,262 578,431 38%

TOTAL 100% 4,140,476 4,449,467 38%

Page 21: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Increased investments will need to be made to maintain a stable hotel/destination economy given expected new inventory.

Strategies for combatting the destabilization include:• Increased resources for Visit KC• Re-focused Visit KC sales and marketing strategy• Re-focused overall destination development strategy

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact

Increased inventory will have a destabilizing effect on the Kansas City destination market…

Page 22: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

CONVENTION & SPORTS BIDS• Additional sales staffing• Planner awareness programming• Business development fund• Additional venue development &

enhancements

MARKETABLE LEISURE• New market development• Airport marketing• Experiential development• New event development• New demand driver development

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Considerations for Increased Resources

Competitive options for applied resource investment

Page 23: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Funding Comparatives

Page 24: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Impact of TIF Funded Properties on Visit KC Budget

$7,549,256 $7,826,265 $8,342,794

$7,730,951 $7,814,379 $8,034,511

$9,488,059 $9,910,366

$10,207,677 $9,903,907

$10,219,325 $10,544,204

2,169 2,383

1,917

2,717 2,717 2,717

$-

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

2017 2018 Est 2019 Est 2020 Est 2021 Est 2022 Est

C/T Revenue By Year Net TIF C/T Revenue By Year TIF Participating Room Nights Per Year

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: Visit KC, JLL

Final year of Marriott TIF

First Year of Loews TIF

Gap represents tax payments to Visit KC subsequently paid to TIF financed properties

Page 25: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Actual DMO Operational Budget (in Millions)

DMO Budgets

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

DMOs that have passed or are developing new funding optionsDMOs that are exploring new funding options

Source: Destinations International, JLL

Page 26: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Destination Development

Page 27: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Demand Driver Additions

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

KC Metro Demand Drivers

Full service Select service Full service % change Select service % change

1995Briarcliff

Development

1995Union Station Restoration

Town Center PlazaGARMIN Headquarters

1997Sprint World HeadquartersGreat Mall of Great Plains

1999Speedway, Legends area construction beginsGARMIN Headquarters expansion

2001KC Speedway NASCAR Opens

2003Legends Outlet, NFM, Cabela's, GWL, Tbones

2004 Zona Rosa

2006H&R Block Downtown InvestmentLiberty Memorial Reopens

2007KCP&L District DowntownSprint Center ArenaCrossroads area development

2016GARMIN Headquarters

expansionCerner Innovations

campusBannister Mall

redevelopment

2013Cerner Legends campus

2019Construction

begins on new KCI

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 28: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Discussion & Conclusions

Page 29: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Priorities & Direction

• Pursue options to grow funding for Visit KC.

• Re-focus Visit KC sales and marketing programming.

• Strategically plan for future resource investments.

• Encourage new destination demand drivers for future & sustainable growth.

• Discontinue tax increment financing program for future hotel renovations or new construction until demand is sufficient and the market is “healthy”.

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 30: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Questions & Comments

Page 31: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Appendix

Page 32: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Additional Comparatives

Page 33: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Convention Center Space

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Exhibition Space (Sq. Ft.)

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: JLL

Page 34: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Convention Center Hotel Characteristics

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Hotels within 1/2 mile from the convention center

Existing Pipeline

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Hotel Rooms within 1/2 mile fromthe convention center

Existing Pipeline

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: Smith Travel Research, JLL

Page 35: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Hotel Meeting Space Characteristics

Hotel meeting space per room within ½ mile of the Kansas City Convention Center is currently high; however, the total amount of meeting space is below most of the comp set.

13

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Sq. Ft.

Hotel Meeting Space within ½ mile of the convention center

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sq. Ft.

Hotel Meeting Space/Room within ½ mile of the convention center

Kansas City moves to 6th with the addition of the Loews

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: STR, JLL

Page 36: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Kansas City Economy

Page 37: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Gross Market Product Comparison

Kansas City ranks 11th for GMP and GMP per capita among competitive and comparative destinations

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

GMP (in Millions) GMP per Capita

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: Oxford Economics, JLL

Page 38: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Overall Economic Growth

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Real GDP Real Personal Income Employment Unemployment Rate* Population Real GDP Per Capita Real Personal Income PerCapita

Historical Growth of Key Economic Indicators (5-Year CAGR, 2012-2017)

Kansas City United States

Growth in the Kansas City metropolitan area (MSA) among key indicators mirrors that of the U.S. in terms of employment and population; unemployment in the MSA is not as high as the national average.

GDP and personal income is lower than the national average.

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: Oxford Economics, JLL

Page 39: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Overall Economic Growth

Source: 2018 Kansas City Economic Forecast, Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce, October 26, 2017

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 40: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Kansas City Metropolitan Area:Tourism & Lodging Performance

Page 41: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Select Service Growth

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Kansas City All Tracts - Growth in Select Service Supply

Select service Select service % change

99 - Hawthorn Suites by

Wyndham Overland Park

215 rooms

99 - Hampton Inn Suites Kansas City Country Club Plaza

203 rooms

15 - Stoney Creek Independence

167 rooms01 - Hilton Garden Inn

Independence200 rooms 07 - Residence

Inn Kansas City Airport

152 rooms

09 - aloft Hotel Leawood Overland Park

156 rooms

00 - Courtyard Overland Park

Convention Center

168 rooms

16 - Courtyard Kansas City Downtown

Convention Center153 rooms

New properties with 150 rooms or more are noted in boxes

1,409 rooms to be added between 2018-2020

The number of select service rooms in the market more than tripled between 1991 and 2017

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 42: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Kansas City Metro - Growth in Full Service Supply

Full service Full service % change

Full Service Growth

New properties (Shaded are in Convention & Tourism Tax District)

12 - Autograph Collection Ambassador Hotel Kansas City

43 rooms

91 - Sheraton Suites

Country Club Plaza

257 rooms

98- Drury Inn & Suites Kansas City Airport122 rooms

99 - Ramada Platte City KCI

Airport71 rooms

00 - Drury Inn & Suites

Overland Park169 rooms

00 Holiday Inn & Suites Overland Park Convention Center

119 rooms

96 - Harrah's North Kansas

City Casino392 rooms

96 - Ameristar Casino Hotel Kansas City184 rooms

02 - Sheraton Hotel Overland Park &

Conference Center412 rooms

03 - Great Wolf Lodge Kansas City281 rooms

11 - Drury Inn & Suites Independence

Kansas City180 rooms

06 Holiday Inn Kansas City Airport

141 rooms

18 - 21c Museum Hotel Kansas City

120 rooms

15 - Embassy Suites Kansas City Olathe

200 rooms

19 - Autograph Collection Ambassador Hotel Kansas City

48 rooms

19 - Embassy Suites Kansas City Downtown

321 rooms

20 - Loews Kansas City Convention

Center Hotel800 rooms

20 - Holiday Inn Independence

120 rooms

20 - Holiday Inn Kansas City120 rooms

The number of full service rooms grew by more than 130% between 1991 and 2017

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 43: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Visitor Growth

Source: 2016 Economic Impact & Visitor Profile, Visit KC

21.2% Growth since 2009

• Overall visitation is on a growth trend that is out-pacing other sectors of the economy.• 2016 was the highest visitation level since the 2008-2009 recession.• Regional hotel occupancy has remained between 55-66% throughout this period of visitation growth

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Page 44: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Lodging Supply & Performance

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTDADR $84.77 $86.42 $80.62 $81.63 $81.92 $85.15 $87.14 $90.53 $94.32 $99.08 $103.76 $102.27RevPAR $49.93 $49.64 $42.16 $44.73 $46.64 $48.62 $51.03 $56.94 $61.60 $64.44 $68.19 $63.56Occupancy 58.9% 57.4% 52.3% 54.8% 56.9% 57.1% 58.6% 62.9% 65.3% 65.0% 65.7% 62.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Kansas City Metro Lodging Performance

ADR RevPAR Occupancy

Since the 2008-2010 recession, Kansas City Metro occupancy has steadily grown but the overall rate has not gone higher than 66%.

71% Occupancy for “healthy” lodging

market

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: Smith Travel Research, JLL

Page 45: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Pittsburgh Cleveland Minneapolis Milwaukee Louisville Denver Baltimore St. Louis Columbus Memphis Nashville Cincinnati Kansas City

Historic and Projected Changes in Occupancy Rates

CAGR 2013-2017 CAGR 2017-2022

Occupancy Rate Performance (Metro)

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: CBRE

CAGR of 2.9% between 2013 and 2017

Projected CAGR in occupancy of -1.2% from 2017 to 2022

Projections are from CBRE’s Hotel Horizons® research. CBRE forecasts are based on econometric estimations of future hotel market activity and financial performance statistics measuring the historical relationships between the region’s economy and hotel market variables. CBRE also applies a subjective review of the modeled outputs and adjusts accordingly.

Page 46: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Pittsburgh Baltimore Cleveland Minneapolis Milwaukee Columbus St. Louis Louisville Cincinnati Memphis Kansas City Denver Nashville

Historic and Projected Changes in Average Daily Rate

CAGR 2013-2017 CAGR 2017-2022

Average Daily Rate Performance (Metro)

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: CBRE

CAGR in ADR of 4.8% between 2013 and 2017

Projected CAGR in ADR of 1.2% from 2017 to 2022

Projections are from CBRE’s Hotel Horizons® research. CBRE forecasts are based on econometric estimations of future hotel market activity and financial performance statistics measuring the historical relationships between the region’s economy and hotel market variables. CBRE also applies a subjective review of the modeled outputs and adjusts accordingly.

Page 47: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Pittsburgh Cleveland Baltimore Minneapolis Milwaukee Louisville Columbus St. Louis Memphis Cincinnati Denver Kansas City Nashville

Historic and Projected Changes in RevPAR

CAGR 2013-2017 CAGR 2017-2022

RevPAR Performance (Metro)

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

Source: CBRE

CAGR in RevPAR of 7.8% between 2013 to 2017

Projected CAGR in RevPAR of -0.1% from 2017 to 2022

Projections are from CBRE’s Hotel Horizons® research. CBRE forecasts are based on econometric estimations of future hotel market activity and financial performance statistics measuring the historical relationships between the region’s economy and hotel market variables. CBRE also applies a subjective review of the modeled outputs and adjusts accordingly.

Page 48: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Additional Kansas City Convention & Tourism Tax District Findings

Page 49: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Historic Bookings Ramp

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

100%

89%

65%

46%

33%11%

24%

19%

13%

33%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Booked In Year/ForYear

Booked 1 Year Out Booked 2 Years Out Booked 3 Years Out Booked 4 or More YearsOut

% o

f Boo

king

s

% o

f Goa

l

Cumulative Room Nights Towards Goal % of Bookings

Historically, 33% of Visit KC convention and sports bookings occur four years or more out from the event date. Booking pattern trends then proceed from 13% at three years out, 19% at two years out and 24% one year prior to the event. The remaining 11% of the booking fall within the same year. This ramp is important to understanding urgency related to key advanced booking periods.

Source: Visit KC

Page 50: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

Overall Loews Projected Volume

Source: Projections from Loews Hotels

Market Mix Percentage

Room Nights Produced

New City Wide Convention Business 19% 36,000

New In-house Group 28% 52,000

Impact on Market 53% 98,000

TOTAL 100% 186,000

800 rooms projecting 64% occupancy for 186,000 occupied room nights

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

The 800-room Loews Hotel Kansas City is slated to open in 2020. The pre-opening market mix is projected to provide 36,000 new room nights in convention center bookings and another 52,000 new room nights from in-house bookings. The remaining 98,000 room nights of business will be pulled from other Kansas City properties, if no significant changes to demand drivers occur.

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Convention Lodging Characteristics

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50

Numb

er of

Hote

l Roo

ms

Distance from the Kansas City Convention Center (Miles)

Proximity of Hotel Rooms to the Kansas City Convention Center

Roughly 32% of the hotel rooms in Kansas City, MO are located within ½ mile of the Kansas City Convention Center.

The Kansas City Convention & Tourism Tax District contains 33 hotels offering 17,218 hotel rooms. Within this figure, nine hotels provide 2,400 hotel rooms within ½ mile of the Kansas City Convention Center.There is approximately 145,184 square feet of hotel meeting space is located in hotels within ½ mile of the Kansas City Convention Center.

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50

Numb

er of

Hote

ls

Distance from the Kansas City Convention Center (Miles)

Proximity of Hotels to the Kansas City Convention Center

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50

Hotel

Mee

ting

Spac

e (Sq

. Ft.)

Distance from the Kansas City Convention Center (Miles)

Proximity of Hotel Meeting Space to the Kansas City Convention Center

1978 rooms within ¼ a mile

2400 rooms within ½ a mile

5 properties within ¼ a mile

9 properties within ½ a mile

122,411 sq. ft. of meeting space properties within ¼ a mile

234,406 sq. ft. of meeting space just over 1 mile from the Center

Source: STR, JLL

Page 52: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

© 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

$586

$524$572

$648

$756

$841 $823 $872

$981

$818

$815 $920

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In T

hous

ands

Convention & Tourism Tax District Collections by Month

2015 C/T Tax Collections 2016 C/T Tax Collections2017 C/T Tax Collections 2018 C/T Tax CollectionAverage

Source: Visit KC, JLL

Convention & Tourism Tax District Collections

Page 53: Kansas City Lodging Market Analysis...JW Marriott Nashville 533 Rooms Opened 7/2018 No tax incentives No room block agreement Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center 1501 Rooms

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to JLL and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of JLL and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorized only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of JLL. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.

Contacts

David HolderVice President - Tourism(315) [email protected]

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL)Hotels & Hospitality200 East Randolph DriveSuite 4700Chicago, IL 60601

Dan FentonExecutive Vice President(831) [email protected]

Tina ValdecanasAnalyst(984) [email protected]