THE ONES THAT GOT AWAY

Kathy Booth, WestEdRP Conference | April 11, 2014

Low completion rates

Negligible wage gains

Declining enrollments

High cost program

The tale of two auto

tech programs

Conventional certificate program: strong completion, positive wage gain, steady enrollments

Apprenticeship program: low enrollments, anecdotal evidence of job attainment and wage gain

Skills update program: no completion, no wage gain, declining enrollments due to repeatability—but job retention

Community education program: no completions or wage gain

Session Outcomes

• Build awareness of factors shaping our current conversation on CTE success

• Understand research on outcomes for CTE students

• Develop engagement strategies for raising these issues on your campus

What constitutes success?

• What comes to your mind?• Which variables are your

colleges looking at?• What other variables is your

campus discussing?

Why doesn’t CTE fit standard success frameworks?

• Basic skills: prepares student in three subjects for one outcome (success in college-level course)

• Transfer/Associate’s degree: teaches competencies that can be accomplished within a fixed number of units for two outcomes (secure community college credential and acceptance at a four-year institution)

Why doesn’t CTE fit standard success frameworks?

• Variable credits: 6 units (early childhood education) or 110 units (aviation)

• Variable skills: advanced math (radiology tech) or basic quantitative reasoning (cosmetology)

• Variable credentials: short-term certificate (petroleum tech), long-term certificate (sign language), degree (accounting), or external credential (real estate)

• Variable employment outcomes: new job (computer science) or keeping a job (public & protective services)

The way we think about college drives what counts as success

• Many courses • Several years• Credential• Good for life• Opens door to

employment

The evolving world of work

• Most jobs require mastery of quickly-evolving technology, requiring retraining

• Workers are moving from jobs that no longer exist to jobs that may not have existed when they started their studies

• Employers expect workers to come to the job fully trained

• Sectors have bypassed academic credentials and are establishing their own

The new reality for workforce education is short-term certificates

Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce:

• Certificates accounted for 22 percent of postsecondary awards in 2010, up from 8% in 1980

• Certificates are now the second most common postsecondary award, ahead of associate’s degrees and master’s degrees

• 54% of these certificates are short-term (1 year or less)

The new reality for workforce education is short-term certificates

Institute for Higher Education Policy (iHELP):

• 2/3 of California community college CTE certificate programs lead to short-term certificates

• Official 40% completion rate for short-term certificates likely understated, because many colleges don’t report non-approved credentials

The crux of the problem

While individual college programs are being developed that address the new world of work, our conversations about success are still assuming a conventional definition of the college experience

… so we need a new way to talk about alternative college pathways.

Completion-Likely38%

Completion-Unlikely28%

CTE3%

Skills-Builder30%

Noncredit1%

First-Time Student Types, Based on Head Count

Bahr’s Analysis of California Community College Course-taking (2010)

How many skills-builders are there (and what are they anyway)?

• Bahr (2010): 30% of first-time students (average one course a year for two years)

• Bahr (2012): 14% of first-time students (no more than 4 semesters, 6 or fewer credits, no completion)—of which 58% were in CTE

• Greaney (2013): 36% of CTE Outcomes Survey respondents (non-completers, average 32 units, included returning students)

• Van Ommeren & Fuller (2013): 4% of 2010 enrollments (college goal of “advance in current job/career”)

Short-term skills-builders get significant earnings gains

Water and Wastewater Technology

Administration of Justice

Electronics and Electric Technology

Manufacturing and Industrial Tech

Fire Technology

Computer Infrastructure and Support

Civil and Construction Management Tech

General Information Technology

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%6 credits9 credits12 credits Increase in Quarterly Earnings

Bahr (2013) documented wage gains in 16 of 24 CTE fields after taking only a couple of courses, for first-time students

Leavers have a smaller percentage increase, but overall higher wages

KC Greaney, CTE Outcomes Survey, 2013

No Transfer: Skills Builder

No Transfer: Completer

Transfer:Skill Builder

Transfer: Completer

Hourly Wage PRE $21.19 $19.03 $14.45 $15.53

Hourly Wage POST $25.87 $24.78 $19.01 $20.81

Increase in Wage $4.68 $5.75 $4.56 $5.28

Percent Change 22.1% 30.2% 31.5% 34.0%

Most short-term skills-builders make more than completers

Ryan Fuller & Alice van Ommeren, Chancellor’s Office, 2014

20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

LeaversCompleters

Median Wages for Completers vs Leavers with 1-10 Units

Older leavers make more than completers

Ryan Fuller & Alice van Ommeren, Chancellor’s Office, 2014

20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

LeaversCompleters

Completers vs Leavers Median Wages by Age

The value of completion varies by discipline

Ryan Fuller & Alice van Ommeren, Chancellor’s Office, 2014

1-10 Units 11-20 Units 21-30 Units 31-40 units 41-50 Units$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

LeaversCompleters

Completers vs Leavers Median Wages in Administration of Justice

The value of completion varies by discipline

Ryan Fuller & Alice van Ommeren, Chancellor’s Office, 2014

Completers vs Leavers Median Wages in Nursing

1-10 Units 11-20 Units

21-30 Units

31-40 units 41-50 Units

50+ units$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

LeaversCompleters

The value of completion varies within a discipline

Ryan Fuller & Alice van Ommeren, Chancellor’s Office, 2013

Even though completers make more in health, some health-related fields showed significant—and significantly different—wage gains for low-unit skills-builders with a college goal of “advance in current job/career”:

•Respiratory Care/Therapy - $27,462 increase•Dental Laboratory Technician - $44,887 increase

CTE credentials are valuable at both low and high credit thresholds

• The earnings gains associated with CTE credentials are overwhelmingly positive and oftentimes strong.

• In contrast to claims that short-term certificates have no labor market value…

…earnings gains hold nearly as well for short-term awards as they do for long-term awards.

• Even some of the low-credit awards (< 6 units) show positive earnings gains. Peter Bahr, University of Michigan, 2014

CTE credentials are valuable at both low and high credit thresholds

Peter Bahr, University of Michigan, 2014

Field of Study

Low-CreditAward

< 6 units

Short-TermCertificate6-29 units

Long-TermCertificate30+ units

Assoc Degree

60+ units

Health +8% +11% +39% +106%

Business & Management +12% +9% N/S +6%

Public & Protective Services +13% +32% +27% +11%

Engineering & Industrial Tech N/S +11% +11% +12%

Family & Consumer Sciences N/S +9% +6% +3%

Commercial Services ---------- -6% -16% -14%

Information Technology ---------- +9% N/S +12%

But in many fields, the value comes from content rather than the credential

• The earnings gains associated with CTE credentials that are independent of course-taking pathways generally are much smaller or, more often, zero.

• Does this mean that CTE credentials have little or no value?

No, it means that the value of the credentials is driven by the human capital (the skills and knowledge) that students acquire. Peter Bahr, University of Michigan, 2014

But in many fields, the value comes from content rather than the credential

Peter Bahr, University of Michigan, 2014

Field of Study

Low-CreditAward

< 6 units

ShortCertificate6-29 units

LongCertificate30+ units

Assoc Degree

60+ units

Health +6% +10% +26% +99%

Business & Management +10% +5% N/S N/S

Public & Protective Services N/S +13% +10% N/S

Engineering & Industrial Tech N/S N/S N/S +7%

Family & Consumer Sciences N/S +5% N/S N/S

Commercial Services ---------- 9% N/S N/S

Information Technology ---------- N/S N/S N/S

What we don’t know: the value of third-party certification

• CTE Outcomes Survey: 41% of leavers reported earning a third-party credential

• Census Bureau Survey of Income and Program Participation: third-party credentials boost the income of those with “some college” by 13% and those with an associate’s degree by 18%

Key questions raised by the research

• What successes should we measure? Should external certifications and wage gains get counted in places like the accreditation reporting or the Scorecard?

• What gets to count? Should it count even if attaining that credential or salary bump meant that students combined work experience with short-term academic training? Should we be the sole providers of the skills in which students demonstrate mastery?

• What should we prioritize? Is it appropriate for community colleges to provide short-term skills-gap training? What will happen if we don’t provide it?

From concept to reality: mapping various pathways

http://www.calbiotechcareers.org/wp-content/themes/biotech/CBC_Table.pdf

Ideas for engaging your colleagues

• Understand and document the diversity of pathways within your CTE programs

• Help your colleagues understand the changing workplace, what it means for education, and how we are responding

• Quantify the success of various educational routeso Community college credentialso External credentialso Wage gain and job retention

Find out more

• Read more about Bahr’s research and download inquiry guides: www.wested.org/project/quantifying-non-completion-pathways-to-success

• Contact Kathy Booth to discuss your thoughts about how this research can be shared and how we can gather better information on skills-builder students (kbooth@wested.org)

• Watch for a brief in the summer that describes skills-builder research and examines skills-builder pathways in ten California community colleges