Kathy JacobsAssistant Director for Climate Assessments and Adaptation, OSTP

Office of Science & Technology Policy Executive Office of the President

National Climate Assessment:An Ongoing Network for

Assessment and AdaptationJune 7, 2011

Boulder, Colorado

Assignment:• Focus on cross-sector communication and

initiatives to provide climate change and assessment information to resource managers and decision makers in the Colorado River Basin

Tina Kennedy

Challenges

• There is an infinite matrix of possible intersections of climate change with things we care about

• There is an infinite number of potential players – decision makers, scientists, government officials, private businesses, individuals

• There is an infinite number of possible sources of information and very few simple ways to get scientific information that is relevant to decision contexts

Challenges

• Cultural differences, different “languages”, different values, incentives, etc

• Too “invested” in our existing agencies, missions, ideas, approaches, infrastructure, relationships

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                                    •USGCRP News •International •Science News •Agenda and Documents Posted for May 20th NCADAC Meeting•New Press Release Announces Governing Committee of NCADAC•Federal Register Notice for National Climate Assessment (May 10, 2011)•Federal Register Notice for National Climate Assessment (May 4, 2011)•Director Named for the New USGCRP National Coordination Office•New Federal Register Notice for the National Climate Assessment

RSS Feed for USGCRP News   •Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)•Global Change Research Programmes: Planet Under Pressure•Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation•ICSU Earth System Visioning Open Forum, Paris, France 22 June 2010•Request for Nominations of Experts for Consideration as Authors and/or Editors for the Fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5)

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Opportunities• “Network of networks” –

depending on existing modes of communication and engagement

• Building boundary spanning capacity

• Redefining goals as sustainability of systems rather than species or topics

Opportunities• Huge potential for incorporating adaptation

and mitigation into decision processes – but need to identify the right trigger (and it is a different trigger in every community)

IPCC AR4

Example Opportunity: The Draft USGCRP Strategic Plan

Vision: “A nation, globally engaged and guided by science, meeting the challenges of climate and global change”

Mission: “To build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs of research, education, communication and decision support

The USGCRP Strategic Plan

• “Harmonizing efforts within each region, and providing benchmark scenarios, benefits both decision makers and information providers by avoiding duplication of efforts and leveraging existing capabilities. Coordination of these efforts must be founded on a commitment to sustained engagement and collaboration with public and private sector decision- makers in a process of shared learning and joint problem-solving…” Draft language, not to be cited or quoted!

Example Opportunity: Integrated Risk-Based Framework for the 2013 NCA Report

Reframing Vulnerability for 2013• Lead with issues of concern regarding climate

impacts, not with the impacts themselves• Link vulnerability assessments to decision processes• Address adaptive capacity in a nationally coherent

and consistent mannerIntegrated Approach to Vulnerability Assessments• Link assessments through the use of common

scenarios• Build on existing climate impact and vulnerability

assessments• Progress toward a systems approach, building a

framework that links across sectors/regions

Opportunity: Regional Climate “Consortia” Initiatives of the Adaptation Task Force

Starting with 318 programs!

CEQ-OSTP Regional Coordination Effort

We asked agencies to narrow their submissions to a small set of priority programs in each region. This is what we got:

• 44 NOAA programs, including Regional Climate Services Directors, National Data Centers, Applied Research Centers, Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments, Regional Climate Centers, Coastal Services Centers

• 29 DOI programs, including Climate Science Centers, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

• 20 USDA programs including Agricultural Research Service Research Centers, USFS Research Stations, National Institute of Food and Agriculture initiatives

Proposed Solution: 8 regional hubs in a linked network, based in locations with a history of stakeholder support

• Identify key issues/vulnerabilities in the region and the utility and availability of relevant data;

• Update the 2009 GCCI Report for the region, using materials that meet the NCADAC standards for review;

• Identify and engage local networks of participants and resources that can be brought to bear on the assessment topics

• Evaluate and respond to the regional climatologies and projections provided by the NCA

• Discuss potential indicators of change for the region in the context of building a suite of National Indicators

• Identify important information needs and priority topics for subsequent assessment activities

NCA Minimum Requirements for 2013 Report - Technical Inputs from Regions

Optional additional efforts: • Conduct facilitated regional scenario planning

discussions; • New science syntheses• Special topic “nested assessments” within the

region• Provide initial inventory and/or assessment of

key regional adaptation and mitigation efforts • Report on next steps in development of regional

engagement networks and assessment activities.

NCA Optional Components for 2013 Report Technical Inputs from Regions

Why does the NCA need an engagement strategy?

• Engage existing and new users in the process of creating the next generation of the NCA

• Better support stakeholders’ needs for information

• Build capacity for future assessments• Empower stakeholders with ways to develop

responses to climate change• Advance the national conversation about

climate change

Who are the stakeholders of the NCA?Modified from NRC’s America’s Climate Choices: Informing an Effective

Response to Climate Change

ScaleType

International National Regional / State / Tribal Local

Government Intergovernmental organizations and networks of governments

Federal government, National networks of governments

State and tribal governments, Regional offices of Federal agencies, Interstate networks of governments

County and city governments

Private sector Multinational corporations, International business networks

Corporate headquarters, National business networks

Regional corporate offices, Companies and business associations

Local businesses, Chambers of commerce

Non-profit, NGO, and community-based organizations

International organizations, Networks of organizations

National-scale organizations

Regional offices of organizations

Local organizations

Academia and professional associations

International science unions and societies

National networks of academic institutions, Scientific societies

State-wide and regional networks of universities

Colleges and universities, Other schools

Private citizens International citizens networks

Voters, citizen and consumer networks

Voters, citizen networks Individuals as voters, consumers, and agents

NCA Engagement Strategy:Opportunities for participation

• Developing technical inputs, e.g., Responses to “Requests for Information”– Literature reviews, discussion

papers, and other syntheses– Case studies– Modeling results, interpretation of

data, and topical reports– Conference reports and other

technical documents

• Participating in assessment activities, e.g.,– Meetings and workshops– Supporting indicator systems– Participation on working groups and

writing teams

Communication Strategy:• Assessment newsletter• Website with comment

capacity, calendar, news updates, workshop reports, meeting notices, agendas, handouts

• Federal register notices• Network communications• Factsheets, brochures• Speakers bureau• Special outreach to

professional societies• Audience-specific materials

Evaluating participation: Effectiveness• Salience – How did the process elicit questions and issues of concern to

participants? How did the process help to shape NCA products to be more useful?• Credibility – How did the process help users understand the quality of

information?• Legitimacy – How did the process help bring forward and balance the interests of

stakeholder groups?

• Capacity building – How did the process help participants become better at participating in NCA activities? How did the process help participants become better users of information from the NCA? How did the process help participants develop a shared understanding of the issues surrounding climate change?

Vulnerability Workshop Outcomes• Need a national framework that links local assessments

(recognizing qualitative and community-based assessments)?• Adding value comes from synthesizing and integrating what

comes from the local assessments vs.• Building a national framework, with high level overarching

questions about things that need to be understood at a larger scale?

• Should NCA focus more on assessment of possible human responses and implications of those responses than support for individual decisions?

• Systems approaches, eg across federal lands, looking at migratory species implications of cc?

Vulnerability Workshop Outcomes• Importance of scenarios to VA’s : What at a

national scale helps condition the local and sectoral vulnerability?

• How to define and assess capacity to adapt? Are the barriers among scientists as well as politicians and institutions?

• Acknowledge interactions among vulnerabilities, eg community relocation, changing ecosystems and subsistence economies

Closing Thoughts