Katya Petropavlova (adapted from Mark Jaccard’s public talk

presentations)

School of Resource and Environmental Management

Simon Fraser University

July 4, 2012

Responding to Climate Change: Difficulties and

Opportunities

EMRG

Energy and Materials Research Group Simon Fraser University

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Outline

1. The climate change threat and our motives for action

2. The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, and impacts

3. Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions

4. Reasons for the failure to act on climate change

5. Opportunities and strategies for effective climate action

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Outline

1. The climate change threat and our motives for action

2. The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, and impacts

3. Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions

4. Reasons for the failure to act on climate change

5. Opportunities and strategies for effective climate action

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emrgemrgenergy and materials research group

emrgemrgenergy and materials research group

Today

Tipping point?

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1. Self-interest – catastrophic impacts on us and our offspring

2. Responsibility for the biosphere – mass extinctions due to climate change

3. Responsibility for other humans – rich countries developed by burning fossil fuels but initial impacts are in poor countries

Motives for actionEMRG

Feb/2012 6

Responsibility by country in cumulative carbon

emissions

Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis, EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.

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Climate-related mortality per million people by

2000

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Prescription vs. prediction

Values are “prescriptions” for how humans ought to act

Need to recognize human tendencies to:

• Hold beliefs that favor one’s interests (self-interest bias)• Overlook inconvenient logical connections (cognitive dissonance)• Think uncritically (susceptibility to misinformation)• Have institutions incapable of long-term collective pursuits

Need to exercise in “prediction,” not wishful thinking

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Outline

1. The climate change threat and our motives for action

2. The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, and impacts

3. Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions

4. Reasons for the failure to act on climate change

5. Opportunities and strategies for effective climate action

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Details: emissions, concentrations,

temperatures, impacts to 2100 +

Level CO2 (ppm) CO2 e (ppm) Likely tempΔ

Pre-1750 280 ? 0 C

2010 level 390 460 2.2 C (1.2 in 2010)

critical level 350 450 2 C

Stern target 450 550 -> 3 C?

Realistically? 550 650 -> 3 C + ?

Sources: IPCC, Energy Modeling Forum, Anderson & Bows, 2009

Source of confusionCO2 e = CO2 + methane + nitrous oxide + others

current path ≈650-770 ≈750-850 4 – 6 C

Scientists contemplate 4C beyond 2100

www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees

350.org

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Past sea level vs. temperature: long-term

response lags

Source: Archer

Long-term effect

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Uncertainty of exact temperature change,

but not of temperature change

Source: Ronald Prinn, MIT

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Outline

1. The climate change threat and our motives for action

2. The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, and impacts

3. Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions

4. Reasons for the failure to act on climate change

5. Opportunities and strategies for effective climate action

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Political promises & implications

Promises:• 2°C increase (max 450 CO2e) – Copenhagen, 2009• 80% GHG reductions by 2050 - most rich countries (65% in Canada)

Implications:• 550 CO2e (with only 50% chance of not exceeding 2°C limit) global emissions must fall 60% by 2050 (Stern)• Emissions of poor countries must also fall by 20% relative to 2010 levels• But inertia in the global energy system

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CO2–free energy share to stabilize at 550 CO2e

by 2100

Source: Nakicenovic

15% in 201050% in 2030 80% in 2050

CO2-free energy share = biomass + other renewables + nuclear + fossil fuels with CCS

Only possible if all energy investment is CO2-free

from today

60% reduction from growing system requires 80% CO2-free globally

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CO2-free share by sector to stabilize at 550 ppm CO2e

by 2100

Electricity generation - 90% CO2-free by 2050(renewables, fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, nuclear)

Buildings - 85% CO2-free by 2050(heat pumps, passive solar, biofuels, photovoltaics, solar hot water)

Vehicles - 80% CO2-free by 2050(electric, biofuel, hydrogen)

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Truth-testing our politicians:

the case of Canada

• Canada does not pursue the CO2-free technology at the rate to meet its goals• Canadian government promotes tar sands expansion

Question: Is government’s action consistent with 2050 promises of 65% reduction (or even just 50% reduction) and global promise of 2°C?

Answer: No (Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford, EMF 22)

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• Modeled Canada’s tar sands under global 40% CO2e reduction policy • Emissions are higher 550 CO2e

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World oil prices:40% CO2e reduction by

2050

Source: Chan et al, MIT 2010

World oil prices stay at today’s levels with global

climate policy

World oil prices rise under business-as-usual

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Hand-picked advisory body confirms MIT – models

Harper 65%

Source: National Roundtable on Environment & Economy, 2009

Canadian government targets

Emissions must fall today to reach targets

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Conclusions from independent and

government advisory studies

• World is not on the path to stabilize by 2100 at 450 CO2e or 550 CO2e

• Canada is not on a path to reduce emissions by 65% (or even 50%) by 2050 (tar sands + pipelines = government not acting truthfully)

• Canada / world are locking on to path to ≈800 CO2e by 2100 (+ 4-6 °C increase)

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Outline

1. The climate change threat and our motives for action

2. The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, and impacts

3. Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions

4. Reasons for the failure to act on climate change

5. Opportunities and strategies for effective climate action

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Understanding the failure to act

Past “successes” with acid emissions, smog creating emissions, ozone-depleting emissions, lead emissions

Yet climate policy failure now approaching three decades

Question: Do climate-altering emissions present a more difficult problem?

Answer: Yes

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1.Global public good - individual initiatives of little value; need compliance enforcement mechanism

2. High starting costs – total transformation costs small, but high initial costs and risks to begin shift to CO2-free sources

3. Invisible benefits / uncertainty about “specific” impacts - but major outcome is virtually certain

4. Delayed effects – must act now to prevent future impacts, but human decision-making often myopic

5. Who pays - perceptions of equity aligned with self-interest (polluter pays vs. equal payment per capita or GDP vs. historical responsibility)

Specific challenges of climate issue

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Self-serving bias and efforts to discredit

climate science & policy“It is difficult to get a man to understand something

when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair

1.Anti-science bias – easy to convince people to disbelieve science when it conflicts with their self-interest

2.Greenwashing campaigns – alternative images of fossil fuels, i.e. “clean coal,” “ethical oil,” “transitional natural gas”

3.Anti-establishment bias – IPCC is portrayed as a conspiracy-like establishment

4.Anti-government bias – climate policy is portrayed as excessive regulation, higher taxes, and “social engineering”

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Outline

1. The climate change threat and our motives for action

2. The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, and impacts

3. Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions

4. Reasons for the failure to act on climate change

5. Opportunities and strategies for effective climate action

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If we don’t take these biases into account, we will FAIL to motivate effective individual and political action on climate change

Strategy 1: being realistic about humans and self-

delusion

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Strategy 2: communicating science and risk

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Strategy 3: confronting the “what about the Chinese”

argument

Question for high school students: “Figure out how the international community achieves collective action on a public good when:”

• Some countries are much richer than others• The rich countries have much higher cumulative

emissions• The rich countries can use subsidies and trade

threats to get global compliance

Each year different students, but always the same answer:

• Rich countries go first with cutting their emissions thus lowering the costs of CO2-free technologies and fuels

• To ensure universal compliance with global effort, they can provide subsidies and apply trade measures

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Strategy 4: confronting the “our emissions are

small” argument

Canada is responsible for 2% of global CO2 emissions

In World War II, Canada was responsible for less than 2% of the Allied effort that defeated Germany and Japan

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Strategy 5: confronting the “we need the economic growth

& jobs” argument

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Question for elementary school students: “What happens when your job creation strategy destroys the planet?”

Economic growth has been used often to justify harm“Low carbon growth will

be more energy-secure, cleaner, safer, quieter and more bio-diverse. Low-carbon growth is the future growth story. High-carbon growth, on the other hand, will destroy itself.”

– Nicholas Stern

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Strategy 6: confronting the self-interest bias of fossil

fuel regions

burning fossil fuels

No use of fossil fuels

extremely difficult/

impossible?

fossil fuels with CCS

difficult

CCS = carbon capture & storage

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Strategy 7: confronting the “we don’t need climate

policy” argumentCorporate social responsibility as solution – but businesses compete on the basis of bottom-line and fossil fuels are cheap

Green consumerism as solution – but virtually all human expenditures of income involve energy use at some stage

Energy efficiency is cheap as solution – but usually it is more expensive and inconvenient than simply burning fossil fuels

Carbon neutrality as solution – “false sense of progress”

Peak oil and high energy prices as solution – but the earth’s crust has a scary plentitude of fossil fuels and humans keep innovating to find and extract more

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A scary plentitude of fossil fuels: Global Energy

Assessment

Historical production through 2009

Production 2009

Reserves Resources Additional occurrences

[EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] Conventional oil 6 647 166.7 4 900 – 7 610 4 170 – 6 150 n.a. Unconventional oil 607 23.1 3 750 – 5 600 11 280 – 14 800 > 40 000 Conventional gas 3 467 112.7 5 000 – 7 100 7 200 – 8 900 n.a. Unconventional gas 158 12.0 20 100 – 67 100 40 200 – 121 900 > 1 000 000 Coal 7 269 152.7 17 300 – 21 000 291 000 – 435 000 n.a.

Conventional uraniumb 1 333 25.6 2 339 7 420 n.a. Unconventional uranium

n.a. 4 100 2 600 000

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Strategy 8: confronting the “climate policy can’t work”

argument

Information and subsidies do not work – 20 years of evidence

Emissions pricing (carbon tax and/or cap-and-trade) – economically efficient but difficult politically

Regulations - successfully phased-out acid rain, smog, lead, ozone-depleting emissions

Design regulations (and pricing) to be efficient – e.g., BC’s carbon tax and BC’s zero-emission electricity policy

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Strategy 9: if government won’t act

(and perhaps is lying)

What is your moral duty as a citizen if independent evidence shows your government is not telling the truth and that the implications are disastrous?

• Public relations / social networking campaigns / boycotts – focus on popular culture, Hollywood • Legal action – 100 US coal plants delayed or postponed in past 5 years• Non-violent civil actions (350.org, Greenpeace, VTACC)

“Hope is not the conviction that action will turn out well, but the certainty that action makes sense, regardless how it turns out.”

Vaclav Havel

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Thanks for your attention!

Comments/ Questions?

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Extra slides

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Climate change economics

Abatement Costs

GDP in 2050 is 75% greater instead of 80%

Energy costs in 2050 perhaps 30% higher than otherwise.

Energy costs in typical household budget increase from 6% today to 8% by 2050.

Do Nothing Costs

Character of impactsBiodiversity loss with higher temp.Extreme weather events (drought, hurricane, heat wave)Ocean acidificationDisease surprisesGreater floods and coastal instability related to rising oceans

Timing, magnitude and GDP costHighly uncertain, but evidence we underestimate risks of extreme outcomesIn 2050 – 20% of GDP lost? 50%?In 2100 – catastrophic?

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Actions and policies for greenhouse gas

reductionActions by households and firms

Energy efficiency (if using fossil fuels) Fuel switching (away from fossil fuels) Emissions capture and storage “The rest” (industrial processes, landfill

management, agriculture, forestry)

--------------------------------------------------------------------Policies by government to drive actions

Information Subsidies Regulations (command-and-control) Regulations (market-oriented, e.g. cap and trade) Emissions charges (carbon tax)

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Mar/2012 41 41Jaccard-Simon Fraser University 41

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EcoENERGY

Canada’s climate policy failure:targets, policies, emissions

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Energy consumption and new devices (US data)

Steve Groves, SFU – 2009

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15 energy using devices

45 energy using devices

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Fossil fuelsEMRG