kazakhstan national opinion poll - iri may 19 survey of... · conducted: april 3-13, 2010 1...

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Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization with funding from the United States Agency for International Development IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Page 1: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

Kazakhstan National Opinion PollConducted: April 3-13, 2010

1

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization

with funding from the United States Agency for

International Development

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY• This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the

International Republican Institute. Field work was carried out by the Institute for Comparative Social Research-Kazakhstan.

• The national representative survey was carried out from April 3 - 13, 2010. The eligibility criteria was based on age(18 years and older). A sample of 1,527 Kazakh participants were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.

• The sample design was a multi-stage probability sample.– Stage one: the sample was stratified into 16 regions.– Stage two: the sample was further stratified into rural, urban and metropolitan sampling units.– Stage three: Primary Sampling Units (PSU) were described.

2

– Stage three: Primary Sampling Units (PSU) were described.

• The closest birthday rule was used for the selection of the respondent. The households were selected using randomroute method.

• The sample was distributed at the regional level, in rural and urban areas, in all 16 regions of Kazakhstan.

• The response rate was 61 percent.

• The margin of error for the survey results does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent with the confidence level of 95percent.

• One hundred and thirty-two interviewers worked on the study, on average completing 8-13 interviews in one PSU.The interviews were done in Russian, Kazakh and Uzbek languages.

• Due to rounding, charts may not add up to 100 percent.

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Survey DemographicsSurvey Demographics

Male 47% Female 53%

Urban 60% Rural 40%

Age18 to 29 31% 30-49 41%50+ 28%

Monthly Household IncomeUp to 25,000 tenge 23%25,001 - 40,000 tenge 18%40,001- 60,000 tenge 16%More than 60,000 tenge 25%No answer 18%

EthnicityKazakh 56%

3

EducationPrimary 2%Secondary unfinished 3%Secondary 29%Vocational 31%Higher unfinished 9%University, higher 27%

Kazakh 56%Russian 30%Uzbek 4%Ukrainian 2%Tartar 3%Other 3%

Language of InterviewRussian 80%Kazakh 17%Uzbek 3%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Astana city4% Almaty city

9% Almaty 10%

Akmola5%Mangystau

Pavlodar5%

North Kazakhstan

5%

South Kazakhstan

13%

Region

4

5%

Aktyubinsk4%

Atyrau3%

East Kazakstan10%Zhambyl

6%

West Kazakhstan4%Karaganda

9%

Kyzylorda4%

Kostanai6%

Mangystau2%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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SOCIALSOCIAL INDICATORS INDEXINDICATORS INDEX

5IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

SOCIALSOCIAL INDICATORS INDEXINDICATORS INDEX

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Generally speaking, would you say that things in Generally speaking, would you say that things in Kazakhstan are going in the right direction or wrong Kazakhstan are going in the right direction or wrong

direction?direction?

77%79%

90%

67%

72% 76% 74%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

6IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

11% 10%

12%5%

18%14% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jul-04 Sep-05 Aug-08 Feb-09 May-09 Oct-09 Apr-10

Right direction Wrong direction

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In the past year, has your personal financial situation In the past year, has your personal financial situation gotten better, worse or stayed the same?gotten better, worse or stayed the same?

26%31% 33%

38%

43% 43%39%

50% 47%

30%

40%

50%

60%

7IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

3%

26%

24%21%

20%23%

25%31% 33%

24%

1%3% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Aug-08 Feb-09 May-09 Oct-09 Apr-10

Better Worse Stayed the same DK/NR

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In the next year, do you expect the economic situation in In the next year, do you expect the economic situation in Kazakhstan to get better, worse or stay the same?Kazakhstan to get better, worse or stay the same?

50%

54%

46%

33%

44%

33%26%

30%32%

27%30%

40%

50%

60%

8IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

7%10%

14%23%17%

26%32%27%

11%11%

10%12%12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Aug-08 Feb-09 May-09 Oct-09 Apr-10Better Worse Same DK/NR

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ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEXISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX

9

ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEXISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Some argue that Kazakhstan is now experiencing a serious Some argue that Kazakhstan is now experiencing a serious financial crisis. Do you agree or disagree with this idea?financial crisis. Do you agree or disagree with this idea?

25

24

48

43

13

20

7

6

1

1

6

6

Oct-09

Apr-10

26% disagree67% agree

73% agree 20% disagree

10

36

25

42

48

13

13

5

7

1

1

3

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

May-09

Oct-09

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagreeStrongly disagree No response Don't know

18% disagree78% agree

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Do you think the government is doing a very good, good, bad Do you think the government is doing a very good, good, bad or very bad job handling the problems of the world financial or very bad job handling the problems of the world financial

crisis?crisis?

4 51 25 4 2 14Apr-10

56% Good job 24% Poor job

55% Good job 29% Poor job

11

5 51 22 2 4 16

0 20 40 60 80 100

Oct-09

Very good Good Bad Very bad No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

56% Good job 24% Poor job

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Which one of the following issues is of the greatest concern to you?(Responses 2% or greater)

2

3

25

2325

23

18

7

6

21

35

24

32

4

4

20

4

6

22

29

Low standard of living and low income

Inflation and price increase

Unemployment and threat of losing a job

Corruption

Low quality and high prices of health servicesFeb-09May-09

12

2

3

2

3

2

3

3

6

5

4

4

2

2

3

2

1

3

3

3

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Low quality and high prices of health services

Increase in level of crime

Solution of housing problems

Quality and accessibility of education

Not a sufficient level of support to small businesses

Don't know /No answer

May-09Oct-09Apr-10

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Now I am going to read you a list of things that may be a problem in Now I am going to read you a list of things that may be a problem in the country. Please tell me if you think it is a very big problem, a the country. Please tell me if you think it is a very big problem, a moderately big problem, a small problem or not a problem at all?moderately big problem, a small problem or not a problem at all?

67

64

49

20

24

35

7

6

10

1

1

3

5

5

3

The spread of HIV/AIDS orother infectious diseases

Illegal drugs

Pollution

13

49

49

48

35

29

30

10

9

13

3

2

5

3

11

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Pollution

Corrupt governmentofficials

Increases in the price ofutilities

Very big problem Moderately big problem Small problem Not a problem at all Don't know /No answer

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Now I am going to read you a list of things that may be a problem in Now I am going to read you a list of things that may be a problem in the country. Please tell me if you think it is a very big problem, a the country. Please tell me if you think it is a very big problem, a moderately big problem, a small problem or not a problem at all?moderately big problem, a small problem or not a problem at all?

44

33

29

29

31

34

14

18

20

5

10

9

8

8

8

Human rights violations

People leaving Kazakhstanfor jobs in other countries

People from othercountries coming to

14

29

28

27

34

25

32

20

21

24

9

15

10

8

11

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

countries coming toKazakhstan looking for jobs

Conflicts between ethnic ornationality groups

A lack of quality publictransportation

Very big problem Moderately big problem Small problem Not a problem at all Don't know /No answer

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Thinking about this past winter, how would you rate the Thinking about this past winter, how would you rate the service of your basic utilities heat, gas and electricity service of your basic utilities heat, gas and electricity ––

very good, good, bad or very bad?very good, good, bad or very bad?

11 60 18 5 2 4

71% Good 23% Poor

15

11 60 18 5 2 4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Very good Good Bad Very bad No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Thinking about this past winter, how would you rate the service of your Thinking about this past winter, how would you rate the service of your basic utilities heat, gas and electricity basic utilities heat, gas and electricity -- very good, good, bad or very bad? very good, good, bad or very bad?

(Breakdown by region)

18

66

189

29

6 4 3 312

60

80

100

No response/Don't know

16

76

30

7989

59

0

20

40

South East North West Center

Don't know

Bad

Good

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, October 2009

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Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts to fight corruption?to fight corruption?

6 36 26 18 3 11Apr-10

53% Satisfied 26% Unsatisfied

42% Satisfied 44% Unsatisfied

17

10 43 17 9 4 17

0 20 40 60 80 100

Oct-09

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfiedVery unsatisfied No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

53% Satisfied 26% Unsatisfied

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Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts to reduce unemployment?to reduce unemployment?

8 42 27 15 2 8

50% Satisfied 42% Unsatisfied

18

8 42 27 15 2 8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfiedVery unsatisfied No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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There are reports that the government is considering a plan to lease a There are reports that the government is considering a plan to lease a large area of Kazakhstani land to China for agricultural use. Would you large area of Kazakhstani land to China for agricultural use. Would you support or oppose the government leasing Kazakhstani land to China?support or oppose the government leasing Kazakhstani land to China?

I would support a decision to lease the land to China

I would oppose a decision to lease

19

the land to China5%

decision to lease the land to China

81%

No response2%

Don't know12%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Are people in Kazakhstan afraid to openly Are people in Kazakhstan afraid to openly express their political views?express their political views?

24

24

19

14

32

29

20

19

26

31

15

19

12

11

24

27

6

5

22

21

Feb-09

May-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

20

14

8

29

24

27

25

29

32

35

40

26

26

16

21

11

12

8

5

5

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jul-04

Sep-05

Aug-08

Feb-09

Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid Don't know /No answer

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Why do you think people are afraid to openly express their political views?(Respondents who think that people are afraid, N=788)

17

11

5

4

2

They don't want complications in the future

They are afraid to lose their job

They are afraid of punishment from leadership

They are threatened with punishment

They do not trust the government

21

2

2

2

1

2

35

19

They do not trust the government

They worry about themselves and their families

Nobody listens

They are not interested in politics

Other

Don't know

No response

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise of Islamic How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise of Islamic extremism in Kazakhstan these days? Are you very concerned, extremism in Kazakhstan these days? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned?somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned?

23 39 11 12 2 13

22

23 39 11 12 2 13

0 20 40 60 80 100

Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concernedNot at all concerned No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Do you believe democracy is the right form of Do you believe democracy is the right form of government for Kazakhstan or not?government for Kazakhstan or not?

47 34 6 3 10Apr-10

23

41 41 6 9 3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Feb-09

Yes Maybe No No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Since Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) was banned in 2005, its successor Alga (DCK) has been unable to obtain registration with the

Ministry of Justice. Do you believe that it is wrong for the government to deny legal status to a major opposition party?

34

35

22

21

8

9

36

35

May-09

Apr-10

24

39

36

34

22

19

22

5

10

8

34

35

36

0 20 40 60 80 100

Aug-08

Feb-09

May-09

Wrong Right No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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INSTITUTIONAL RATINGSINSTITUTIONAL RATINGS

25

INSTITUTIONAL RATINGSINSTITUTIONAL RATINGS

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Rate the national Rate the national government’s government’s performance on issues on a ladder performance on issues on a ladder scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very

good performance. good performance.

45

44

42

39

39

37

35

33

32

34

33

35

30

27

35

35

16

17

20

20

22

30

23

26

6

4

5

7

4

5

5

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

5

Fighting corruption

Poverty reduction

Employment

Fighting crime

Housing

Development of roads and highways

Inflation control

Preserving the environment

26

32

31

21

20

15

13

13

26

35

23

33

19

22

21

35

29

52

37

62

53

55

5

3

9

3

9

9

2

2

1

2

1

3

3

3

0 20 40 60 80 100

Democratic reforms

Healthcare

Water quality and availability

Improving educational system

Availability of electricity

Foreign policy

National security

Poor Neither poor, nor good Good No answer Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Rate the national government’s performance on issues on a ladder Rate the national government’s performance on issues on a ladder scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very

good performance. good performance. October 2009October 2009

24

28

28

30

35

35

36

43

28

37

36

37

34

33

34

30

40

29

29

25

25

22

25

19

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

6

5

6

6

5

8

4

5

1

Development of roads and highways

Healthcare

Fighting crime

Inflation control

Housing

Fighting corruption

Employment

Poverty reduction

27

10

11

12

14

19

21

22

21

20

23

33

36

23

34

54

63

54

34

36

51

33

3

2

2

2

1

2

12

4

9

16

7

4

8

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Foreign policy

Availability of electricity

National security

Democratic reforms

Improving educational system

Water quality and availability

Preserving the environment

Poor Neither poor, nor good Good No answer Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, October 2009

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Rate the national government’s performance on issues on a ladder scale from one Rate the national government’s performance on issues on a ladder scale from one to five, where one means very poor and five means very good performance. to five, where one means very poor and five means very good performance.

(Only those responding that the government’s performance is poor)(Only those responding that the government’s performance is poor)

October 2009 April 2010 % Change from Oct-09 to Apr-10

Poverty reduction 43% 44% +1%

Employment 36% 43% +7%

Fighting Corruption 35% 45% +10%

Housing 35% 39% +4%

Inflation Control 30% 35% +5%

Fighting crime 28% 39% +11%

28

Fighting crime 28% 39% +11%

Healthcare 24% 31% +7%

Development of roads and highways

24% 37% +13%

Preserving the environment 22% 33% +11%

Water quality and availability 21% 21%

Improving the educational system

19% 20% +1%

Democratic reforms 14% 32% +18%

National Security 12% 13% +1%

Availability of electricity 11% 15% +4%

Foreign policy 10% 13% +3%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Please tell Please tell how how much corruption you think there is much corruption you think there is in each of the in each of the following institutions. Do following institutions. Do you think there is none, not very much, a you think there is none, not very much, a

fair amount or a great deal?fair amount or a great deal?

41

31

26

23

18

16

28

31

29

37

26

33

12

16

19

18

19

21

3

4

6

4

8

5

18

20

18

29

25

16Road police

Customs service

Universities

The courts

Office of the Prosecutor General

Kazakhstani companies

29

13

11

11

10

10

8

31

30

22

22

22

20

26

26

23

21

21

21

8

10

8

10

12

16

22

23

36

37

35

36

0 20 40 60 80 100

Army

Banks

Foreign companies

Political parties

Parliament

Office of the President

Great deal of corruption Fair amount Not much No corruption Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Please tell how much corruption you think there is in each of the Please tell how much corruption you think there is in each of the following institutions. Do you think there is none, not very much, a following institutions. Do you think there is none, not very much, a

fair amount or a great deal?fair amount or a great deal?October 2009October 2009

37

28

26

21

17

12

34

35

34

36

29

34

11

15

18

19

17

20

3

5

4

5

7

9

17

18

19

30

25

15Road police

Customs service

Universities

The courts

Office of the Prosecutor General

Banks

30

12

12

10

10

8

8

31

29

24

25

21

22

21

25

19

19

19

21

6

10

10

11

15

12

29

24

37

35

37

37

0 20 40 60 80 100

Kazakhstani companies

Army

Political parties

Parliament

Office of the President

Foreign companies

Great deal of corruption Fair amount Not much No corruption Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Have you or someone you know had to pay a bribe or offer a gift Have you or someone you know had to pay a bribe or offer a gift to a government employee or official in the following situations?to a government employee or official in the following situations?

19

21

70

68

11

11

To a local official for a license,permit or service

To a government official for a jobconsideration

31

22

35

38

68

67

54

52

11

11

11

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

consideration

To a teacher or school administratorto pass exams

To a police officer for a trafficviolation

For health services in a public clinicor hospital

Yes No Don't know/ No response

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Do you have confidence in the fairness of the judicial system Do you have confidence in the fairness of the judicial system and courts in the country?and courts in the country?

24 58 4 14Apr-10

32

27 47 4 22

0 20 40 60 80 100

Oct-09

Yes, I have confidence No, I am not confident No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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How would you rate each of the following institutions? (Favorable responses only)

72 70 68

5754

49

40 43

33

75

6762 63

46

84

71

57 60

51 50 50 50

8780 79

71 70

5753 53

45

73 73

59

4847

67

92

5248

515452

7980

94

4853

697880

52

7873

56

4451

91

47

5965

47 45

74

56

33

Pres

iden

t

Parl

iam

ent

Kaz

akhs

tan'

s med

ia

The

gov

ernm

ent

The

arm

y

Loc

al A

kim

at

Mas

likha

ts

Rel

igio

us a

ssoc

iatio

ns

Polit

ical

par

ties

The

cou

rts

The

pol

ice

Non

gove

rnm

enta

l org

aniz

atio

ns (N

GO

s)/

publ

ic a

ssoc

iatio

ns The

opp

ositi

on

Aug-08 Feb-09 May-09 Oct-09 Apr-10

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 34: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

Would you describe your household’s current standard of Would you describe your household’s current standard of living as very good, good, bad or very bad?living as very good, good, bad or very bad?

5 62 20 2 3 9

34

5 62 20 2 3 9

0 20 40 60 80 100

Very good Good Bad Very Bad No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 35: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

How would you evaluate the income of your household?How would you evaluate the income of your household?

3232

34 35 35

17 1417 18 17

2 2 3 3 356543

60

80

100Don't know, No answer

We can afford almost whateverwe want

We are able to buy some moreexpensive goods, but should

35

12 12 11 9 10

33 3630 29 30

34 35 35

0

20

40

Aug-08 Feb-09 May-09 Oct-09 Apr-10

expensive goods, but shouldsave on other things

We are able to buy what isnecessary, but we cannot affordmore expensive goods

We are able to buy only basicproducts

We do not have enough moneyfor the basic needs

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 36: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

ELECTION INDEXELECTION INDEX

36

ELECTION INDEXELECTION INDEX

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 37: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

To what extent are you interested in politics?To what extent are you interested in politics?

Very interested11%Not very interested

31%

Not at all interested13%

No response1%

Don't know1%

37

Somewhat interested43%

31%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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In the past year, have you been an active member of any In the past year, have you been an active member of any group that tries to influence public policy or government?group that tries to influence public policy or government?

Yes8%

38

No87%

No response2%

Don't know3%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 39: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

If parliamentary elections were held next week, how likely is it If parliamentary elections were held next week, how likely is it that you would vote?that you would vote?

33

31

12

12

10

15

9

8

44

37

34

May-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

13% Likely not to vote82% Likely to vote

22% Likely not to vote70% Likely to vote

65% Likely to vote 27% Likely not to vote

39

37

40

38

9

10

7

4

6

5

5

47

41

44

3 4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Aug-08

Feb-09

May-09

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not vote at all Don't know/No response

84% Likely to vote 12% Likely not to vote

81% Likely to vote 14% Likely not to vote

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 40: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

Why wouldn’t you vote in parliamentary elections if they were held next Why wouldn’t you vote in parliamentary elections if they were held next week? week?

((If not very likely to vote or not at all, N=408)If not very likely to vote or not at all, N=408)

26

24

14

I don't believe elections will be fair

My vote doesn't change anything

I don't have enough information about parties andcandidates

40

13

9

8

1

3

1

I am not interested in politics

I don't have time to go to the polls

I don't like any party or candidate

For health reasons

Don't know

No response

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 41: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

Which political parties working in your region do you know? Which political parties working in your region do you know? (Open ended, all mentioned)(Open ended, all mentioned)

7

2

4

1

0.7

0.7

9

3

3

2

2

62

0.7

66

0.9

1

2

Nur Otan

Ak Zhol

Auyl

Alga

Communist Party of Kazakhstan

Azat

Rukhaniyat Party

Zhas Otan

AssarOct-09

41

0.7

1

0.7

0.5

0.7

9

0.6

0.4

0.4

6

26

1

0.2

0.9

0.6

26

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Assar

Adilet

Party of Patriots

Communist Peoples party

Social Democratic party

Atameken

Other

No political parties

Don't know

No response

Apr-10

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 42: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSINTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

42

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSINTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 43: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

How serious of a threat is al Qaeda to Kazakhstan? Is it a How serious of a threat is al Qaeda to Kazakhstan? Is it a very serious threat, a somewhat serious threat, a minor threat very serious threat, a somewhat serious threat, a minor threat

or not a threat at all?or not a threat at all?

21 29 14 12 3 21

43

21 29 14 12 3 21

0 20 40 60 80 100

Very serious threat Somewhat serious threat Minor threatNot a threat at all No response Don't know

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 44: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

SOURCES OF INFORMATIONSOURCES OF INFORMATION

44

SOURCES OF INFORMATIONSOURCES OF INFORMATION

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 45: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

What are the main sources of political information for you?

87

64

5752

46

84

61

61

85

58

86

47

52

86

Kazakhstan's TVstations

Russian TV stations

Kazakhstan'snewspapers

Aug-08Feb-09

45

29

27

17

22

21

21

22

45

23

23

22

21

24

21

15

47

21

newspapers

Relatives, friends

Internet

Kazakhstan's radiostations

Feb-09May-09Oct-09Apr-10

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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What are the main sources of political information for you?

21

27

13

8

9

6

8

12

12

12

16

13

12

3

14

8

10

12Russian radio stations

Russian newspapers

Magazines

Other foreign TVAug-08Feb-09

46

3

1

1

2

1

1

2

11

4

2

1

1

2

3

1

33

2

stations

Other foreign radiostations

Other foreignnewspapers

Don't know

No response

Feb-09May-09Oct-09Apr-10

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 47: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

How do you rate the credibility of these information sources on a fiveHow do you rate the credibility of these information sources on a five--point scale where one means very unreliable and five means very point scale where one means very unreliable and five means very

credible?credible?(Credible responses only)(Credible responses only)

62

43 4340

7068

60

52

4548 49

4044

47

38

65

57

42 42

35 36

63

4745

38

61

56

45

3741

55

61

67

37

52

35

67

52

41

Aug-08

47

27

16

34

29

24 24

19

35 36

2730

26

2122

37

2022

37

30

20

34

171821

35

20

Kaz

akhs

tan'

s TV

stat

ions

Rus

sian

TV

stat

ions

Kaz

akhs

tan'

sne

wsp

aper

s

Kaz

akhs

tan'

s rad

iost

atio

ns

Rel

ativ

es, f

rien

ds

Rus

sian

radi

ost

atio

ns

Rus

sian

new

spap

ers

Inte

rnet

Mag

azin

es

Oth

er fo

reig

n T

Vst

atio

ns

Oth

er fo

reig

n ra

dio

stat

ions

Oth

er fo

reig

nne

wsp

aper

s

Aug-08Feb-09May-09Oct-09Apr-10

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 48: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

On average, how often do you use Internet?On average, how often do you use Internet?

3 3

6356

60

80

100

No response/Don't know

Never

Less often

48

9 149

125

65

46

5

0

20

40

Oct-09 Apr-10

Once a month

Once a week

A few times per week

Everyday

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 49: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

What do you use the Internet for mostly?Users of Internet, N=638Users of Internet, N=638

(All mentioned)(All mentioned)

54

44

42

40

16

Research

Email

Chat

Work

Games

49

14

13

7

3

3

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Listen to music

Watch videos

Blog

Shop

Don't know

No response

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Where do you most regularly access the Internet? Where do you most regularly access the Internet?

42

22

9

9

44

30

9

8

Home

Work

Relative's or friend's home

Internet café Oct-09 N=566

50

5

1

7

5

8

5

1

2

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Internet café

Cell phone or mobile connection

School, university

Don't know

No response

Oct-09 N=566Apr-10 N=638

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

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Does your home have satellite or cable TV?Does your home have satellite or cable TV?

Neither32%

Both5%

No response1%

Don't know1%

51

Cable33%

Satellite28%

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, April 2010

Page 52: Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll - IRI May 19 Survey of... · Conducted: April 3-13, 2010 1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization ... on

Does your home have satellite or cable TV?Does your home have satellite or cable TV?(Breakdown by population density)

1720

65

7

4

28 2328

41

332 2

60

80

100

No response/Don't knowNeither

52

48 5041

12

1720

42

4

0

20

40

Astana, Almaty Regionalcenters

Towns Villages, auls

NeitherBothSatelliteCable

IRI, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization KAZAKHSTAN NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY, October 2009