kbc ioe webinar - planning successful petrochemical projects

© 2012 KBC Advanced Technologies plc. All Rights Reserved.

Planning Successful Petrochemical Projects

Steven Kantorowicz, Principal Consultant Matthew Kuhl, Senior Consultant

26 September 2012

Agenda

• Introduction • Global Petrochemical Trends • Investment Considerations • Alternative Feedstock Processes • Process Simulation • Independent Consulting • Conclusions

26 September 2012 2 PROPRIETARY INFORMATION

Introduction to Petrochemical Project Evaluation

• Feedstock alternatives • Process route selection • Technology comparison • Grassroots vs brownfield considerations • Forecast supply/demand/prices for feeds/products • Configuration

– Available feedstock choices – Process modeling – Integration with existing units – Steam/Power study

26 September 2012 PROPRIETARY INFORMATION 3

Global Energy Perspectives – Petrochemicals


Perspective Comment Petrochemical Industry profitability to remain robust

• Industry consensus is the next cycle peak will be 2015 • PetChem returns are higher than refining over the cycle

Petrochemical demand will remain intimately tied to GDP growth

• Troughs in Asia will not be as low as in other regions • Mature regions will remain under import/ margin pressure

Asian Petrochemicals demand and growth drives everything

• Cooled periodically due to “seasonality” – weather; holidays; • Yet to see the full impact of Chinese monetary policy tightening

Capacity rationalisation will continue • No Region is immune – Old, small & inefficient plants

Geopolitical factors influence investments and hence price levels

• Could be stable today … issues arise essentially overnight! • Who’s next in line for turmoil and production disruption?

Middle East cost structures will move closer to those of other regions

• The industry so far is absorbing new Middle East additions, Asian profitability has remained healthy

Average global olefins feedstock slate will become heavier

• Refinery Petrochemical Integration improves margins • Grassroots crackers & revamps will enable feed flexibility

Russia may finally develop large complexes with export capability

• Advantaged ethane feed for PE production • Access to Eastern European and Chinese Markets

Biomass & coal conversion to PetroChems are local opportunities

• Being studied in China and SE Asia where feeds are abundant • Have not yet made significant penetration

Investment Considerations in Petrochemicals


Potential Investment Opportunities • Worldwide “Greenfield” petrochemical complexes Feedstock and/ or market advantage LPG-based in the right circumstances Capitalising on economies of scale Ethane-based projects in Middle East and US

• Major “Debottlenecking” projects worldwide • Petrochemical assets that could be combined or integrated for efficiency • Refinery / Petrochemical Integration projects • Gas processing and LNG facilities (Liquefaction & Regasification Terminals) • More speculative investments are being considered Coal-to-liquids – although quickly becoming mainstream Gas-to-liquids – not fully mature; Pearl GTL in Qatar will answer many questions Biomass to wide range of intermediates and products

Innovations are essential for current and future ethylene producers Avoid being a “laggard” relative to players with strong feedstock advantages

Investment Considerations in Petrochemicals


Major Risks to Project Developers • Another global financial meltdown - will history repeat itself? • Slowdown in Chinese growth and/or demand • Political and military instability in pivotal regions • Potential increases in Middle East natural gas and ethane prices • Uncertainty of US natural gas prices (e.g., proposed EPA regulation of gas

reservoir fracturing could increase cost) Will ethane supply from shale be monetised – USA; China?

• Further world-wide or regional greenhouse gas (GHG) legislation • Ever-tighter environmental compliance requirements on fuels products • Cost and schedule over-runs impact plans of downstream plants Cannot start production without consistent feed stock availability

Risks Must be Considered and Mitigated by Smart Planning Avoid being a “laggard” relative to players who did their homework

Overview – What’s in Focus


Process Design

• Very Large, High Efficiency Designs • Configured for feedstock and product flexibility; including ultra heavy feeds • Can be easily expanded for debottleneck projects • Maximum on-stream time (start-up; ease of operation; maintenance; training; etc)

Energy Reduction

• Focus on Energy Reduction Opportunities • Maximum heat recovery from the cracker hot fractionation section • Minimum compression in the cryogenic section • Process “pinch” during Engineering

Integration

• Process and Utility Integration Concept • Olefins with adjacent refineries, aromatics plants, central utility facilities and downstream

derivative units • Maximum upgrade of every molecule leaving the complex

Environment

Investment

• Investment Issues • Economy of scale – up to limitations of towers & major rotating equipment • Lower complexity – piece count optimised versus energy consumption • Integration with downstream Derivative Units – how far down the chain?

• Reduce Environmental Impacts • Minimise solid, liquid, vapor emissions • Decrease carbon footprint – impact of “emissions trading” • Reduce NOx & CO – advanced burners; catalytic methods (SCR) Environment

Process Selection & Optimisation – Methodology

• Keep up with Licensor and Vendor Offerings Reactor, Heat Removal & Recovery Sections Feed Flexibility & Debottleneck Opportunities Synergistic Technologies Alternative Processes for Same/ New Products Downstream Derivative Units Strategic Energy Reduction Opportunities Develop Cost of Production Models

• Evaluate Projects Based On: Process technology comparison Structured ranking Project implementation issues

• Tools – Rigorous simulation of any configuration

• Experience – Refinery, Cracker and Petrochemicals

• Objectivity – Independent From Licensors

• Organisation – Human Performance Improvement


Cost Estimation – Needs sufficient Project Definition Economic Modeling – Financing; JV Selection and Negotiations Optimise Configuration – Marketing Strategy; LP Modeling Licensor Comparison – Selection and Negotiation

Available Alternative Olefin Processes • Steam Cracking dominate light olefins production

• all hydrocarbon feeds possible • Alternative routes to steam cracker feedstock: Heavy Feeds – Including direct Crude Oil Cracking Fischer-Tropsch liquids as feeds

• Alternative routes directly to petrochemicals: Refinery Off-gas Recovery – Extensive integration with adjacent plants On-purpose Petrochemicals from FCC (higher severity, selective catalysts,

and installation of propylene recovery) Bio-based Petrochemicals – will become mainstream over time Catalytic ethane dehydrogenation Catalytic ethane partial oxidation Direct (oxidative) coupling of methane Methanol to Olefins; Methanol to Propylene Coal to “X” – Syngas; Liquids; Chemicals


1. Undertake Base Market Study – Petroleum Based Products


2. Conduct Alternative Market Study – Bio-Based Products


Example: Propylene Glycol Production • Standard Route – hydration of

propylene oxide • Alternative Route – from bio-based

glycerol A sugar-derived building block Is a by-product of bio-diesel from rape seed Not commercialised

– Undertake an in-depth comparison of this new technology versus traditional routes; produce more than PG?


Bio-Based Building Blocks 1,4 diacids - succinic, fumaric, malic

2,5 furan dicarboxylic acid

3-hydroxybutyrolactone

3 hydroxy propionic acid

Aspartic acid

Glucaric acid

Glutamic acid

Glycerol

Itaconic acid

Levulinic acid

Sorbitol

Xylitol / Arabinitol

Use Rigorous Process Simulation Tools • Flow Sheet Modelling Understand process impacts Gain confidence that predicted results will

match the plant operations Estimate potential economic benefit of

process and operational changes Rigorous models of conventional or step

out processes


• Steam System Modelling • Pinch Analysis

Integrate New Technology at an Existing Site

• Build rigorous simulation of existing complex

• Maintain key integrations such as hydrogen

• Ensure energy efficiency is enhanced Use most appropriate technology

• Manage environmental impact carefully Fresh water consumption Air, water, solid emissions


Consultant's Role in Project Development • Identify viable alternative production technologies

Maintain rigorous tools enabling comparison with conventional routes • Bring Capital Project Excellence and Operational Excellence to

Owners Methodology - keep up with licensors and vendors offerings Tools – rigorous simulation of any configuration Experience – familiarity based on diverse industry experience Objectivity – independent from licensors

• Conduct preliminary economic screening

• Assist owners with project evaluation/ execution based on Process technology comparison Ranking based on detailed methodology – technical and commercial Implementation issues – Planning; FEED; PMC services


Product Current Market

Size

Estimated Raw Material Cost From New Feed/ Process

Estimated Raw Material Cost for

Commercial Material

Comparative Commercial

Product SWOT & Barriers Opportunity

Ranking

Conclusions and Ingredients for Success


Key Factors Contributing to Successful Innovation

Team Skills Mix

Strong Management Involvement

Company Vision

Continual Plant Presence

Operational Flexibility

Simulation Tools

Management of Change

Continuous Enhancement

Culture that Fosters Creativity

Effective Communications

A Question and Quick Survey

> Was this topic valuable? – Yes – No

> Was the presentation clear? – Yes – No

> Would you be interested in future webinars? – Yes – No


> How do you rate the webinar overall? – Excellent – Good – Fair – Poor

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Closing > Questions? > Future webinar topics:

– Market conditions – Asset optimisation – Investment support – Sustainable workforce development

> We welcome suggestions for future topics – please email [email protected]

> Next webinar information will go out shortly. > Thank you for joining us!


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