keep calm and carry on? policy, psychology and the effects of 'economic war

Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy, Psychology and the Effects of ‘Economic War’ !!British Library!!Monday April 30th, 2012!

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Professor Mel Bartley, UCL Professor Peter Taylor-Gooby, University of Kent Professor Edgar Jones, King’s College London James Lloyd, The Strategic Society Centre

An ESRC Research Centre

1

…...bridging social and biological sciences

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls


Unemployment and health in the life course

•  Long history of concern with health impact of unemployment

•  In the 1930s, attempts were made to deny any effect

•  Charles Webster “Healthy or Hungry Thirties” found that it depended on region


Effect on health of recessions

•  Even in a deep recession, most working age men remain employed

•  20% unemployment rate is very high (this is what they have at present in Spain)

•  What happens to those who remain in work?


Working through a recession

•  Those who remain in work may become more anxious and insecure about their jobs

•  In order to keep working after redundancy, people tend to have to accept jobs with lower pay, less job security and often more work hazards

•  But prices often fall as well, so money buys more (e.g. at present mortgage interest is low)


Does recession influence health?

•  Not a clear question. Could mean: – Do recessions damage population health? – Does unemployment damage health of

individuals •  Mental health •  Physical health •  Life expectancy


Employment and unemployment rates, UK 2007-9

Working age employment rateJanuary 2007 to July 2009

72

73

73

74

74

75

75

76

Jan-Mar2007

May-Jul2007

Sep-Nov2007

Jan-Mar2008

May-Jul2008

Sep-Nov2008

Jan-Mar2009

May-Jul2009

Quarter

Rate (%)

Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey

Working age unemployment rateJanuary 2007 to July 2009

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-Mar2007

May-Jul2007

Sep-Nov2007

Jan-Mar2008

May-Jul2008

Sep-Nov2008

Jan-Mar2009

May-Jul2009

Quarter

Rate (%)


Trajectories of unemployment in present and previous recessions

from “Jobs Crisis”, John P martin, OECD Observer No 274, October 2009

2007---- 1973---- 1979---- 1990---- 2000----


Unemployment and economic inactivity: diverging trends 1980-2008

Men 16-64 1980 to 2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

%

Unemployment Inactivity

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload2.asp 23 Feb 2009


Changes in employment status and mental health

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0.2

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Employed T1 Unemployed T1

Size

of e

ffect

Employed T2 Unemployed T2

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Better mental health

Summary of longitudinal studies on unemployment and mental health

Source: Paul & Moser J Voc Behavior 2009


Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Men

Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012


Relationship between labour market status and GHQ-12 “caseness”. Women

Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

11

Source: Ellen Flint unpublished PhD thesis 2012


Suicide and suspected suicide mortality in England and Wales 1971-2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1971 1981 1991 2001 2003 Dec-08

DSR/million

Men

Women


Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: Men aged 50-59

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 13 Source: Akinwale et al JECH 2011


Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed 1971-2001: women aged 50-59

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 14


Is unemployment bad for health?

•  Mental health effects always accepted •  Mortality figures very controversial •  But have now been replicated 3 times •  Which is more than many studies of e.g.

drug effectiveness •  Has anyone costed the economic gains?

www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 15

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