kelompok 3 rek lalu lintas
TRANSCRIPT
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CALIFORNIA PATH PROGRAM
INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY
Traffic Management System
Using Regression Analysis
David Levinson, Wei Chen
University of Minnesota
California PATH Working Paper
UCB-ITS-PWP-2006-3
This work was performed as part of the California PATH Program ofthe University of California, in cooperation with the State of California
Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency, Department of Trans-
portation, and the United States Department Transportation, Federal
Highway Administration.
The contents of this report reflect the responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data
presented herein.
The contents do not necessarily reflect the State of California. This report does not constit
standard, spec-
ification, or regulation.
Report for Task Order 4132
March 2006
ISSN 1055-1417
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CALIFORNIA PARTNERS FOR ADVANCED TRANSIT AND HIGHWAYS
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Traffic Management System Performance
Using Regression Analysis
A case stud !" M#$DOT%s T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t Sste)s
Da*'d Le*'#s!#+ We' Ce#
-
De.a&t)e#t !" C'*'/ E#('#ee&'#(
U#'*e&s't !" M'##es!ta
011 P'//s2u& D&'*e SEM'##ea.!/'s, MN 00300
/e*'#14+5u)#6edu
V7 8+-98-098403F7 8+-98-89::01
+6 Ass!c'ate P&!"ess!&, -6 Resea&c Ass'sta#t
Abstract
T's stud ca# 2e *'e;ed as a .&e/')'#a& e<./!&at'!# !" us'#( &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's t! e*a/uate /!#(9&u# t&a""'c
)a#a(e)e#t sste) .e&"!&)a#ce6 F!u& )a'# t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea 999
Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s =VMS>, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c
Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste) ;e&e e*a/uated 2ased !# )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/s6 L'#? s.eed a#d '#c'de#t &ate
;e&e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e se.a&ate/6 C!#se@ue#t/, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca# 2e a s')./e a#d
e""ect'*e &esea&c )et!d "!& test'#( te )ac&!sc!.'c ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t a#d t&a""'c
sste) .e&"!&)a#ce !;e*e&, add't'!#a/ &esea&c 's st'// #ecessa& t! !2ta'# a# !*e&a// e*a/uat'!# !" eac !"
te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s6 Fu&te&)!&e, ').&!*e)e#ts c!u/d 2e )ade t&!u( )!de/ ').&!*e)e#t,
add'#( &e/e*a#t .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es, a#d dec&eas'#( data9/')'tat'!#s6
Key Words7 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's T&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) T&a""'c sste) .e&"!&)a#ce
Be"!&e9a#d9a"te& stud Res.!#se *a&'a2/es P&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es Mu/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/S.eed I#c'de#t Rate Ra). Mete&'#( Sste) Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s =VMS> H'(;a
He/.e& P&!(&a) H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste)6
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
1. INTROU!TION
Te M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# =M#$DOT> T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t Ce#te& =TMC>
sta&ted '# +:- t! ce#t&a// c!#t&!/ te "ⅇa sste) '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6 Te TMC
a')s t! .&!*'de )!t!&'sts ;'t a "aste&, sa"e& t&'. !# )et&! a&ea "ⅇas 2 !.t')''#( te use
!" a*a'/a2/e "ⅇa ca.ac't, e""'c'e#t/ )a#a('#( '#c'de#ts a#d s.ec'a/ e*e#ts, .&!*'d'#(
t&a*e/e& '#"!&)at'!#, a#d .&!*'d'#( '#ce#t'*es "!& &'de sa&'#(6 Te TMC &ea/'es 'ts (!a/
t&!u( t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s =TMS>, '#c/ud'#( Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e
Messa(e S'(#s =VMS>, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste),
L!!. Detect!& Sste), C/!sed C'&cu't TV =CCTV> ca)e&as, a#d T&a*e/e& I#"!&)at'!# P&!(&a)6
W'/e te TMC as a /!#( 'st!& !" !.e&at'!#, te e""ect'*e#ess !" s!)e !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s
a*e 2ee# &ece#t/ @uest'!#ed999d! te &ea// e/. &ea/'e te !2ect'*es !" te TMC, !& &ate&, d! te )a?e
t&a""'c c!#d't'!#s e*e# ;!&se T's stud '#te#ds t! e*a/uate te sste)9;'de .e&"!&)a#ce !" "!u& )a'# t&a""'c
)a#a(e)e#t sste)s '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea 999 Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s,
H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste) us'#( &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's6 Te
t&ad't'!#a/ 2e"!&e9a#d9a"te& stud a#d te &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's )et!d ;e&e c!).a&ed, te !ut/'#e !" te
&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ;as .&ese#ted a#d 'ts /')'tat'!#s ;e&e stated6 I# te t;! case stud'es, /'#? s.eed a#d
'#c'de#t &ate ;e&e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e se.a&ate/6 Fⅇa /!!. detect!& data a#d '#c'de#t
&ec!&d 2 TMC "ⅇa ca)e&as ;e&e used "!& t's stud6
". Main Traffic Management Systems
T's stud e*a/uated te sste)9;'de .e&"!&)a#ce !" "!u& )a'# t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s '# te
T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea 999 Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s, H'(;a He/.e&
P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste)6 Te !2ect'*e, 'st!&, sc!.e a#d
!.e&at'!# st&ate( !" eac sste) a&e su))a&'ed as "!//!;s++, +-
7
I. Ram# Metering System
Ob$ecti%e& Ra). )ete&s '# te T;'# C't'es a&e '#te#ded t! &educe de/a a#d
c!#(est'!#, &educe acc'de#t &ates, a#d s)!!t "/!; at !#9&a). u#ct'!#s 2
e/.'#( )e&(e t&a""'c !#t! "ⅇas a#d )a#a(e te "/!; !" t&a""'c t&!u(
2!tt/e#ec?s6
'istory& Te M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# =M#$DOT> "'&st tested
&a). )ete&s '# +86 Te&e ;e&e a..&!<')ate/ 3-: &a). )ete&s /!cated (ig)re 1 & Ram# meter
+
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
t&!u(!ut te )et&! a&ea "ⅇa sste) ;'t 3+8 !" te) ce#t&a// c!#t&!//ed =!#9/'#e>, a#d
++ 's!/ated =sta#d9a/!#e$.&e9t')ed> )ete&s 2 u/ -1116 Te #u)2e& !" &a). )ete&s '# eac
ea& 's s!;# '# (&a. +6
(ig)re * & +ariable message signs
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Sco#e& Cu&&e#t/, &a). )ete&s )a#a(e access t! a..&!<')ate/ -+1 )'/es !" "ⅇas '# te
T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6 It c!*e&s a// te "ⅇas ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e a#d )!st !" te
"ⅇas !# a#d !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e6
O#eration strategy& Ra). Mete&'#( Sste) !.e&ates du&'#( .ea? t&a""'c .e&'!ds !& ;e#
t&a""'c !& ;eate& c!#d't'!#s ;a&&a#t te'& use6 Te !&'('#a/ )ete&'#( st&ate('es =2e"!&e Oct!2e&
+8, -111> ;e&e u. t! "!u& !u&s '# te )!&#'#( a#d u. t! "'*e !u&s '# te a"te&#!!#6 Sta&t a#d
e#d t')es ;e&e dete&)'#ed 2 c!&&'d!& t&a""'c c!#d't'!#s6
Ra). Mete&s
Ram# Meters ,Nos.-
811
011
311
411
-11
+11
1
1 - :3 :8 1 - 3 8 1 - 3 8 1: : : 1
+ + 1
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + - ear
(ig)re " & N)mber of Ram# Meters in Minnesota
II. +ariable Message Signs
Ob$ecti%e7 Va&'a2/e )essa(e s'(#s a&e de*'ces
'#sta//ed a/!#( te &!ads'de t! d's./a
)essa(es !" s.ec'a/ e*e#ts ;a&#'#( suc as
c!#(est'!#, '#c'de#t, &!ad;!&? !#e !& s.eed
/')'t !# a s.ec'"'c '(;a se()e#t6 Tese
)essa(es a/e&t t&a*e/e&s t! t&a""'c .&!2/e)s
aead a#d e/. .&e*e#t sec!#da& c&ases6
'istory7 Te&e ;e&e 8- VMSs '# !.e&at'!#
'#c/ud'#( 2!t a)2e& LED a#d &!ta& d's./a t.e
s'(#s 2 a#ua& -11+6 Te sta&t9u. dates !"
VMSs (e#e&a// c!'#c'ded ;'t te sta&t9u. dates !" te !#9/'#e )ete&'#( '# tat sa)e "ⅇa se()e#t6
Sco#e& A2!ut 01 !" te 8- VMSs a&e /!cated ;'t'# =a#d !#> te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e6
O#eration strategy7 I#sta#t )essa(es a&e .&!*'ded t! a/e&t t&a*e/e&s t! t&a""'c .&!2/e)s aead6
-
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
III. 'ig/0ay 'el#er Program
Ob$ecti%e& H'(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '#te#ds t! )'#')'e c!#(est'!# t&!u( te @u'c? &e)!*a/
!" sta//ed *e'c/es "&!) te "ⅇa, &educe te #u)2e& !" sec!#da& acc'de#ts, ass'st
st&a#ded )!t!&'sts a#d a'd te State Pat&!/ ;'t '#c'de#t )a#a(e)e#t6 It ./as a )a!& &!/e '#
'#c'de#t )a#a(e)e#t '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6
'istory& H'(;a He/.e& .&!(&a) ;as '#'t'ated '# Dece)2e& +:, a#d add't'!#a/ )'/es ;e&e
added '# Se.te)2e&, +86 Cu&&e#t/ te&e a&e '(;a e/.e& &!utes6
Sco#e& H'(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/s e'(t &!utes =+:1 )'/es> '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6
O#eration strategy& F&!) 0711 AM t! :741 PM M!#da t&!u( F&'da, /')'ted !u&s !# ;ee?e#ds6
I+. 'ig/ Occ)#ancy +e/icle ,'O+- System
Ob$ecti%e& Te .u&.!se !" te HOV Sste) 's t! )!*e )!&e .e!./e '# "e;e& *e'c/es a#d .&!*'de
a @u'c?e&, )!&e &e/'a2/e t&'. "!& t!se ;! &'desa&e !& ta?e te 2us6 A HOV 's a *e'c/e ;'t t;! !&
)!&e .e!./e '# 't6 Va#.!!/s, ca&9.!!/s, 2uses a#d )!t!&cc/es a&e c/ass'"'ed as HOVs6
Sco#e& Te&e a&e + )'/es !" HOV /a#es 999++ )'/es !# I943 HOV La#es a#d : )'/es !# I9
40W HOV La#es 999'# te )et&! a&ea6 Te&e a&e t;! t.es !" HOV /a#es999 C!#cu&&e#t HOV
/a#es a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV /a#e6
(ig)re & I2*3 'O+ 4anes and I2*5W 'O+ 4anes (ig)re 5 & 'O+ 4ane on I2*3
4
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
Table 1& 'istory and O#eration strategy&
'O+ lane 'istory O#eration strategy
I943 East2!u#d7 "&!) 8711 a6)6 t! +711 .6)6 "!& east !" H; +11, a#d
"&!) 8711 a6)6 t! 711 a6)6 "!& ;est !" H; +11 Ge#e&a/9.u&.!seI943Sta&t u. s'#ce
t&a""'c 's #e*e& a//!;ed '# te 2a&&'e&9se.a&ated /a#es6=Wee?das a#d;ee?e#ds du&'#( Oct!2e& +- I943 West2!u#d7 "&!) 4711 .6)6 t! 8711 .6)6 "!& ;est !" H; +11,s.ec'a/ e*e#ts6> a#d "&!) -711 .6)6 t! )'d#'(t "!& east !" H; +11 Ge#e&a/9.u&.!se
t&a""'c 's #e*e& a//!;ed '# te 2a&&'e&9se.a&ated /a#es6
I940W Sta&t u. s'#ceB!t d'&ect'!#s !.e&ate as HOV /a#es "&!) 8711 a6)6 t! 711 a6)6 a#d"&!) 4711 .6)6 t! 8711 .6)6 !# ;ee?das A// t&a""'c )a use te /a#es
=Wee?das !#/> N!*e)2e& +3at !te& t')es6
*. Regression Analysis
*.1 Abo)t t/e before2and2after st)dy
JBe"!&e a#d a"te&% stud'es !& J;'t a#d ;'t!ut% stud'es a&e .e&a.s te )!st (e#e&a// used )et!ds t!
e*a/uate sste) .e&"!&)a#ce6 But t's )et!d ;'// )eet d'""'cu/t'es ;e# te !2ect !" stud 's a /!#( e<'st'#(
t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)6 F'&st/, 't 's usua// ').!ss'2/e t! 's!/ate te e""ects !" t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t "&!) te
e""ects !" e<te&#a/ *a&'at'!#s+
6 Be"!&e a#d a"te& stud 's .e&suas'*e "!& e*a/uat'!# !" s!&t9&u# ').act u#de&
te c!#d't'!# tat te&e 's #! s'(#'"'ca#t *a&'at'!# '# e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces, !;e*e&, te e*!/ut'!# !" t&a""'c
)a#a(e)e#t "&!) '#'t'a/'at'!# t! "u// !.e&at'!# usua// c!*e&s decades6 Te e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces )ust
a*e e<.e&'e#ced (&eat ca#(es a#d 't 's ').!ss'2/e t! se.a&ate "&!) !te& ca#(es a/s! a""ect'#( te
sste)6 Sec!#d/, 't 's @u'te d'""'cu/t t! se.a&ate te e""ects !" !#e )a#a(e)e#t sste) "&!) te e""ects !"
!te& sste)s s'#ce a/)!st a// !" te )a'# "ⅇas a&e u#de& te c!)2'#ed )a#a(e)e#t !" tese sste)s6
T'&d/, te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) 'tse/" 's c!#t'#u!us/ '# *a&'at'!#999 #e; "ac'/'t'es a&e (&adua// added '#
a#d s!)e !/d "ac'/'t'es a&e (&adua// &e)!*ed, acc!).a#'#( te ca#(es !" !.e&at'!# st&ate('es6 E*e# '" ;e
ca# "'#d s!)e "ⅇa se()e#t ;'c as sta2/e 2e"!&e a#d a"te& .ases, te /')'ted a#a/s's ;!#%t 2e
&e.&ese#tat'*e "!& te ;!/e sste)6
A "a)!us e<a)./e !" e*a/uat'#( t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) .e&"!&)a#ce us'#( 2e"!&e a#d a"te& stud 's
te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea &a). )ete&'#( sut9d!;# stud-
6 Du&'#( te e'(t ;ee?s% &a). )ete&'#(
sste) sut9d!;#, a// !te& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s ;e&e '# "u// !.e&at'!#6 Te&e"!&e, te
e""ect'*e#ess !" te &a). )ete&'#( sste) c!u/d 2e e*a/uated 2 c!).a&'#( te sste) .e&"!&)a#ce
2e"!&e a#d du&'#( sut9d!;#6 But suc .e&"ect data ca##!t !"te# 2e !2ta'#ed due t! "'#a#c'a/
c!#s'de&at'!# !& .&act'ca/ c!#ce&#s6 F!& e<a)./e, '# !&de& t! e*a/uate te HOV sste) ').acts !# t&a""'c
"/!; a#d sa"et, M#$DOT ./a##ed t! !.e# te HOV /a#es !# I943 t! (e#e&a/9.u&.!se t&a""'c "!& /')'ted
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
.e&'!d '# -11+ "!& te 2e"!&e a#d a"te& data c!//ect'!#6 H!;e*e&, t's ./a# ;as 2a&&ed 2
FHWA due t! .!/'c c!#s'de&at'!#s6
Te .e&"!&)a#ce e*a/uat'!# !" t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) ca# .&!*'de ').!&ta#t '#"!&)at'!# "!&
./a##'#( a#d "!& te &at'!#a/'at'!# !" !.e&at'#( 2ud(et a//!cat'!#s6 We !.e t! e<./!&e a s')./e
a#d e""ect'*e a..&!ac "!& t's tas?6 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's 's .&!)'s'#(6 C!).a&'#( ;'t 2e"!&e a#d
a"te& stud, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's d!es#%t t& t! des'(# te sta2/e e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces a#d 's!/ate
te e""ects !" te !2ect '# stud "&!) te e""ects !" c!)2'#'#( "act!&s6 I# "act, 't 's !"te# @u'te d'""'cu/t
!& e*e# ').!ss'2/e t! des'(# !& see? te Jsta2/e% e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces '# a d#a)'c t&a""'c sste)6
F!& e<a)./e, ;e# ;e e*a/uate e""ects !" t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s !# '#c'de#t &ate, ;e #eed t!
use se*e&a/ ea&s% data t! (et /a&(e e#!u( sa)./e, '# t's case, 't 's )ea#'#(/ess t! assu)e
u#*a&'ed e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces+
6 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's 's d'""e&e#t "&!) 2e"!&e a#d a"te& stud '#
tat 't t&'es t! sea&c !ut a// te .!te#t'a/ e/e)e#ts ='#c/ud'#( t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t> tat e""ect sste)
.e&"!&)a#ce, &ec!&d te'& *a&'at'!# a#d use tese e/e)e#ts as te &e(&ess'!# .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es t!
test te ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# t&a""'c sste) .e&"!&)a#ce a#d t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t6
*." efine t/e res#onse %ariable of t/e regression model
Pe&"!&)a#ce )easu&e)e#t .&!ceeds 2 'de#t'"'#( a#d @ua#t'"'#( s!)e "eatu&e !" te .e&"!&)a#ce !"
te t&a""'c sste) =suc as t&a*e/ t')e !& acc'de#t &ate> a#d us'#( t's t! '#"e& te .e&"!&)a#ce !" s!)e
.a&t !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)+
6 I# &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's, te )easu&e !" t&a""'c sste)
.e&"!&)a#ce ;'// 2e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e, te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s ;'// 2e
'#c/uded '# te .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es, a#d te'& .e&"!&)a#ce ;'// 2e '#"e&&ed 2 te'& ass!c'at'!#s ;'t te
&es.!#se *a&'a2/e a#d 2 c!).a&'s!# ;'t te c!e""'c'e#ts !" &e/ated .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es6
Te&e ca# 2e )a# .e&"!&)a#ce )easu&es !" te t&a""'c sste)+1
6 H!;e*e&, a )easu&e
ca# 2e used as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e !#/ '" 't 's s'(#'"'ca#t/ ass!c'ated ;'t te !.e&at'!#
!2ect'*es !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s "u&te&)!&e, 't s!u/d 2e st&a'(t"!&;a&d t!
'de#t'" te &e/e*a#t .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es6
S.eed a#d '#c'de#t &ate )eet tese c&'te&'a a#d ;'// 2e used as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/es '# te
"!//!;'#( &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's6 Te &eas!# "!& us'#( s.eed '#stead !" t&a*e/ t')e 's tat te
&e(&ess'!# )!de/ ;'// '#c/ude !2se&*at'!#s "&!) d'""e&e#t c!&&'d!& se()e#ts, t&a*e/ t')e ;'//
.&ese#t #! )!&e '#"!&)at'!# ta# s.eed, 2ut 't ;'// 2e '#"/ue#ced 2 te d'""e&e#ces '# /e#(t !"
te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts6 Actua//, s!)e &e/ated )easu&es, suc as t&a*e/ t')e, de/as, a#d
t&a*e/ t')e &e/'a2'/'t, c!u/d 2e de&'*ed d'&ect/ "&!) s.eed6 S!)e !te& )easu&es, '#c/ud'#(
e#*'&!#)e#ta/ ').acts a#d "ue/ c!#su).t'!#, c!u/d a/s! 2e de&'*ed "&!) s.eed 2 c!)2'#'#(
;'t !te& "act!&s suc as *!/u)e, *e'c/e t.es, a#d (as!/'#e @ua/'t6
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
*.* T/e frame0or6 of an ideal regression model
A# 'dea/ &e(&ess'!# )!de/ 's a )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/ ;'c e)./!s a// te &e/e*a#t
e/e)e#ts a""ect'#( sste) .e&"!&)a#ce as 'ts e<./a#at!& *a&'a2/es6 Te &e/e*a#t e/e)e#ts ca#
2e c/ass'"'ed '#t! te "!//!;'#( "!u& cate(!&'es7
1. Infrastr)ct)re c/aracteristics, ;'c '#c/ude ca.ac't, (e!)et&'c st&uctu&e, .a*e)e#t @ua/'t a#d
c!#d't'!#s, (e!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs a#d c!#st&uct'!# act'*'t ').act6 Ca.ac't as s'(#'"'ca#t e""ects !#
s.eed, 2ut deta'/ed '#"!&)at'!# !" ca.ac't 's d'""'cu/t t! !2ta'# "!& eac "ⅇa se()e#t6 I# t's case, te
#u)2e& !" /a#es !" te "ⅇa se()e#t c!u/d 2e used as te '#d'cat'!# !" ca.ac't '" te c!&&'d!&s '# stud a&e
'# te sa)e (&ade9/e*e/, e6(6, a// a&e '#te&state "ⅇas6 Ge!)et&'c st&uctu&e '#c/udes te e/e)e#ts !"
!&'!#ta/ a#d *e&t'ca/ cu&*atu&e, s'(t d'sta#ce a#d te d'sta#ce 2et;ee# e#t&a#ce a#d e<'t '# te sa)e
se()e#t. Pa*e)e#t @ua/'t ca# 2e (!!d, #!&)a/, a#d .!!& .a*e)e#t c!#d't'!#s ca# 2e d&, ;et,
!& s#!; c!*e&ed -6 Te (e!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs !" "ⅇas '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea
ca# 2e c/ass'"'ed '#t! "!u& (&!u.s7 te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e "ⅇa, '#te&c't c!##ect!&, &ad'a/
"ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e, a#d &ad'a/ "ⅇa !uts'de te 2e/t/'#e-
6
". Traffic c/aracteristics7 ;'c '#c/ude t&a""'c *!/u)e, de#s't, *e'c/e "/eet c!).!s't'!#, a#d
/e*e/ !" se&*'ce6 Ve'c/e "/eet c!).!s't'!# '#c/udes .asse#(e& ca& a#d "&e'(t t&uc?, ea*
t&uc? "/eet as s'(#'"'ca#t ').act !# "ⅇa ca.ac't a#d s.eed6
*. Traffic Management Strategies, ;'c '#c/ude Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e
S'(#s, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste), a#d s!)e !te&
t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t st&ate('es suc as T&a*e/e& I#"!&)at'!# P&!(&a)6
. Ot/er factors, ;'c '#c/ude t&a""'c '#c'de#t ').act a#d ;eate& ').act6
(ig)re 8 s!;s te "&a)e;!&? !" te 'dea/ &e(&ess'!# )!de/6
*. 4imitations of Regression analysis
We# 2e"!&e a#d a"te& 's ').!ss'2/e !& t!! c!st/, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca# 2e a (!!d su2st'tute6 But
&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca#%t !2ta'# a// te '#"!&)at'!# ;e #eed t! ?#!; a2!ut te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)6 F!&
e<a)./e, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ust te//s us te ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d sste) )a'#/'#e s.eed,
't ca#%t te// us ;ete& te t&a*e/ t')e sa*'#( caused 2 &a). )ete&'#( sste) ='" a#> !# te )a'#/'#e c!u/d
!""set &a). de/a6 It a/s! ca#%t te// us ;ete& te .e&s!#9!u&s '#c&ease !# (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es ='" a#>
c!u/d 2e !""set 2 te .e&s!#9!u&s dec&ease !# HOV /a#es6 C!#se@ue#t/, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca# 2e a
s')./e a#d e""ect'*e &esea&c )et!d "!& test'#( te )ac&!sc!.'c ass!c'at'!# !& t&e#d 2et;ee# t&a""'c
)a#a(e)e#t a#d t&a""'c sste) .e&"!&)a#ce !;e*e&, t! !2ta'# a# !*e&a// e*a/uat'!# !" eac !" te t&a""'c
)a#a(e)e#t sste)s, add't'!#a/ &esea&c 's st'// #ecessa&6
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
(ig)re 8 & T/e frame0or6 of an ideal regression model
Res#onse+ariable
Predictor +ariables
S.eed
!&
I#c'de#t Rate
I#"&ast&uctu&e
Ca&acte&'st'c
T&a""'c
Ca&acte&'st'c
T&a""'c
Ma#a(e)e#tSt&ate('es
Ote&
"act!&s
Ca.ac't
Ge!)et&'c st&uctu&e
Pa*e)e#t @ua/'t c!#d't'!#s
Ge!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs
C!#st&uct'!# act'*'t ').act
T&a""'c *!/u)e !& de#s't
Ve'c/e "/eet c!).!s't'!#
Le*e/ !" se&*'ce
Ra). Mete&'#( Sste)
Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s
H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)
H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e Sste)
Ote& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t
T&a""'c I#c'de#t I).act=We# us'#( s.eed as &es.!#se *a&'a2/e>
Weate& Va&'at'!#s
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
. !ase st)dy I & Using lin6 s#eed as res#onse %ariable
.1 Regression Model
1. Predictor %ariables&
It s!u/d 2e )e#t'!#ed "'&st/ tat due t! te /')'tat'!# !" data, ;e a&e #!t a2/e t! test a// te .!te#t'a/
.&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es desc&'2ed '# te 'dea/ &e(&ess'!# )!de/, t's 's a de"'c'e#c !" t's case stud6
F!& '#"&ast&uctu&e ca&acte&'st'cs, ;e used ca.ac't =#u)2e& !" /a#es> "!& t&a""'c
ca&acte&'st'cs, ;e used de#s't "!& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t st&ate('es, ;e tested Ra). Mete&'#(
Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e
=HOV> Sste) a#d "!& !te& "act!&s, ;e used t&a""'c '#c'de#t ').act6We a/s! added -- c!&&'d!& du))'es, ;'c c/ass'"'ed te !2se&*at'!#s '#t! -- c!&&'d!& (&!u.s6 Eac (&!u. as
'ts d'st'#ct'*e t&a""'c, '#"&ast&uctu&e, a#d s.at'a/ ca&acte&'st'cs6 Te c!&&'d!& du)) ass'(#ed t! eac
!2se&*at'!# ca# 2e *'e;ed as !#e Jatt&'2ute% ust /'?e te J#u)2e& !" /a#es%6 As a# e<a)./e, c!).a&'#( ;'t I9
33 NB SB 2e/t/'#e c!&&'d!&s ;'c ca&& t&a""'c "&!) su2u&2 t! su2u&2, I93 '#te&c't c!##ect!&s c&!ss )a!&
c!))e&c'a/ !#es a#d te a*e '(e& '#te§'!# de#s't =!& e#t&a#ce e<'t de#s't>6 G'*e# te sa)e
)a'#/'#e de#s't, I93 '#te&c't c!##ect!&s s!u/d 2e s/!;e& ta# I933 NB SB 2e/t/'#e "ⅇas due t! )!&e
e#te&'#( a#d e<'t'#( d'stu&2a#ce6 As a#!te& e<a)./e, I940W c!&&'d!&s =s!ut !" I933> a*e '(e& .e&ce#ta(e
!" ea* c!))e&c'a/ t&a""'c ta# I940E c!&&'d!&s =#!&t !" I93>6 S'#ce ea* c!))e&c'a/ "/!;s a*e s'(#'"'ca#t').acts !# "ⅇa ca.ac't, !/d'#( !te& c!#d't'!#s "'<ed, ;e ;!u/d e<.ect I940W c!&&'d!&s t! s/!;e& ta# I9
40E c!&&'d!&s6
F'#a//, ;e d!#%t &u/e !ut te .!ss'2'/'t tat te add't'!# !" !te& .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es ;'//
ca#(e te &esu/ts6
". etect m)lticollinearity
S'#ce ;e "ace a )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# .&!2/e), ;e s!u/d use te c!&&e/at'!# )at&'< t! detect te .!ss'2/e
)u/t'c!//'#ea&'t6 Mu/t'c!//'#ea&'t 's /'?e/ t! e<'st 2et;ee# de#s't a#d te TMS du))'es6 It 's assu)ed tat
)u/t'c!//'#ea&'t ;'// 2e d'a(#!sed t! 2e .&ese#t '" te a2s!/ute *a/ue !" te c!&&e/at'!# 2et;ee# t;! .&ed'ct!&
*a&'a2/es 's /a&(e& ta# 168, !te&;'se #! )u/t'c!//'#ea&'t6 F&!) te c!&&e/at'!# )at&'<es
=A..e#d'< 4> ;e (et t! ?#!; tat eac c!&&e/at'!# 's /ess ta# 168, te&e"!&e, #! )u/t'c!//'#ea&'t e<'sts 2et;ee#
de#s't a#d te TMS du))'es6 Wat s!u/d 2e #!ted 's te /!; c!&&e/at'!# 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d
)a'#/'#e de#s't6 I# .&act'ce, .e!./e te#d t! '#"/ate te c!&&e/at'!# 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d )a'#/'#e de#s't6
It 's !"te# t!u(t t! 2e t&ue tat a se()e#t c!#t&!//ed 2 &a). )ete&'#( ;'// a*e
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
&e/at'*e/ /!;e& de#s't ta# a se()e#t ;'t!ut )ete&'#(6 But actua// !2*'!us /'#ea&
&e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d )a'#/'#e de#s't ca#%t 2e "!u#d "&!) !u& data6 Te
&eas!# s!u/d 2e tat de#s't 's suc a c!)./e< )easu&e)e#t ;'c 's ass!c'ated ;'t )a#
"act!&s, a#d &a). )ete&'#( 's ust !#e !" te)6
O# te !te& a#d, &a). )ete&'#( a""ects )a'#/'#e s.eed t&!u( #!t !#/ )a'#/'#e de#s't 2ut a/s!
!te& t&a""'c "act!&s suc as d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 We# &a). ca&s t& t! )e&(e '#t! te )a'#/'#e,
)a'#/'#e d&'*e&s usua// a*e t! s/!; d!;# !& e*e# tu&# as'de t! /et te) '#6 Tat 's, &a). ca&s ;'//
L+ L4
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a*e ').acts t! )a'#/'#e d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s e*e# '" te'& )e&('#( d!es#%t cause s'(#'"'ca#t '#c&ease
'# )a'#/'#e de#s't6 =T! (et a# '#tu't'*e u#de&sta#d'#( a2!ut t's ust t'#? tat e*e# ;e# te )'dd/e
/a#e as te sa)e de#s't as te &'(t /a#e, te )'dd/e /a#e 's t.'ca// "aste& ta# &'(t /a#e
2ecause te &'(t /a#e as t! susta'# te ').acts !" )e&('#(=a#d e<'t'#(> ca&s>6 U#de& &a).
)ete&'#( c!#t&!/, &a). ca&s e#te& te "ⅇa '# a s.aced a#d c!#t&!//ed )a##e&6 E*e# '# te case
tat &a). )ete&'#( d!es#%t s'(#'"'ca#t/ dec&ease )a'#/'#e de#s't, 'ts e""ects '# c!#t&!//'#( )e&('#(
d's&u.t'!# t! )a'#/'#e t&a""'c ;'// /ead t! )a'#/'#e s.eed '#c&ease6
*. Model e9#ression
Model 1. Incident2free case
H!u&/ a*e&a(e s.eed 1 D⋅ De#s't TMT+⋅ Ra). Mete& =+,1> TMT-⋅ VMS =+,1>
TMT4⋅ C!#cu&&e#t HOV =+,1> TMT3⋅ Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV =+,1> L+⋅ T;!9La#e =+,1> L-⋅
T&ee9La#e =+,1> L4⋅ F!u&9La#e =+,1> C+C-- C!&&'d!& du))'es ε
We&e,ß D '#d'cates te c!e""'c'e#t !" !u&/ a*e&a(e de#s't
ß TMT+ TMT3 '#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" Ra). Mete& Du)), VMS Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV Du)),
a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV Du)) '#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" te #u)2e& !" /a#es99 t;!9La#e, t&ee9La#e, a#d "!u&9La#e
C+C--'#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" te -- c!&&'d!&s ;e se/ected "!& t's stud =&e"e& t! 364 C!&&'d!&
se/ect'!# a#d stud .e&'!ds>6
Model ". Incident case
H!u&/ a*e&a(e s.eed 1 D De#s't TMT+ Ra). Mete& =+,1> TMT- VMS =+,1>
TMT4 H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) =+,1> TMT3 C!#cu&&e#t HOV =+,1> TMT0 Ba&&'e&9
se.a&ated HOV =+,1> L+T;!9La#e =+,1> L- T&ee9La#e =+,1> L4 F!u&9La#e =+,1>
I+I0 I#c'de#tQ C+C-- C!&&'d!& du))'es ε
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
We&e,
I+I0 '#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" te "'*e '#c'de#t (&!u.s I#c'de#tQ '#d'cates te "!//!;'#( "'*e
(&!u.s7 I#c'de#t+ 99te '#c'de#t !ccu&&ed ;'t'# te stud'ed se()e#t
I#c'de#t- 99te '#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te "'&st se()e#t u.st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t I#c'de#t4
99te '#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te sec!#d se()e#t u.st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t I#c'de#t3 99te
'#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te "'&st se()e#t d!;#st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t I#c'de#t0 99te
'#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te sec!#d se()e#t d!;#st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t
N!tes7
+6 H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) 's #!t '#c/uded '# te '#c'de#t9"&ee case 2ecause ;e# te stud'ed
se()e#ts a&e '#c'de#t9"&ee, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) as #! e""ects t! te se()e#ts
-6Ra). Mete&'#( Du)), H'(;a He/.e& Du)), VMS Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV
Du)), a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV Du)) a&e de"'#ed as "!//!;s7
Ra). Mete&+ '" te se()e#t 's u#de& &a). )ete&'#( c!#t&!/ !te&;'se, Ra). Mete&16
VMS+ '" te se()e#t 's ;'t'# te ').act'#( &a#(e !" VMS !te&;'se, VMS16
H'(;a He/.e& + '" te se()e#t 's ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/ a&ea !te&;'se,
H'(;a He/.e& 16
HOV+ '" te c!&&'d!& as HOV /a#e=s> '# !.e&at'!# !te&;'se, HOV16
." Meas)re s#eed and density )sing loo# detector data
1. Meas)ring s#eed in one /o)r:s inter%al
L!!. detect!&s .&!*'de "ⅇa *!/u)e a#d !ccu.a#c '#"!&)at'!# '# 419sec!#d '#te&*a/s6 Te
data9e<t&act'#( .&!(&a) DataE<t&act'!# TMC, ;'c 's de*e/!.ed 2 MN$DOT TMC, ;as used
"!& e<t&act'#( a#d "!&)att'#( "ⅇa /!!. detect!&s data6 V!/u)e Qi a#d !ccu.a#c K i '# 09
)'#ute '#te&*a/s ;e&e e<t&acted us'#( t's .&!(&a)6
Te )et!d !" )easu&'#( /'#? s.eed 2ased !# *!/u)e Qi a#d !ccu.a#c K i 's e<./a'#ed as "!//!;s7
A Detect!& B
Le
Te detect!& sta&ts t! 2e &ead as J!ccu.'ed% !#ce te "&!#t ;ee/s !" a *e'c/e &eac .!'#t A a#d te
J!ccu.'ed% status e#ds ;e# te 2ac? ;ee/ !" te *e'c/e &eaces .!'#t B6 Du&'#( t's J!ccu.'ed% .e&'!d,
te *e'c/e actua// .asses a d'sta#ce !" l e, ;'c 's usua// ca//ed te e""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t6 Te
a*e&a(e e""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t 's ta?e# as -- "t '# t's stud6 I# a 09)'#ute '#te&*a/, Qi *e'c/es .ass te
+1
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
detect!&, te&e"!&e, te t!ta/ d'sta#ce d&'*e# 2 tese Qi *e'c/es s!u/d 2e Qi ⋅ l e$0-1 =)'/e>6
Fu&te&)!&e, te detect!& 's !ccu.'ed "!& K i => .e&ce#t !" 0 )'#utes% t')e, tat )ea#s te t!ta/
t')e actua// used "!& t&a*e/'#( '# a 09)'#ute '#te&*a/ s!u/d 2e 411⋅K i $+11 =sec>6 Te&e"!&e ;e
ca# !2ta'# te s.ace )ea# s.eed us du&'#( a 09)'#ute '#te&*a/ as "!//!;s0
7
s = total distance = 3600 100 Qi le (mile / hr ) (1)u
total time 5280 300 K i
We&e7
S.ace )ea# s.eed !" !#e detect!& '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s =)'/e$&>us
l e E""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t ="t>
Qi a#d K i V!/u)e a#d !ccu.a#c !" !#e detect!& '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s
us 's te s.ace )ea# s.eed "!& !#e /a#e '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s6 Fⅇa se()e#ts a*e - t! 0 /a#es6
S.ace )ea# s.eed "!& !#e se()e#t 's est')ated us'#( te ;e'(ted )ea# s.eed =;e'(ted 2*!/u)e> !" a// /a#es6 Te s.ace )ea# s.eed "!& a t&ee9/a#e se()e#t 's as "!//!;s7
= Q 1us , Q 1 +
Q 2 u s , Q 2
+
Q 3 us, Q 3 (2)
us,Q
Q1 + Q2 + Q3
S.ace )ea# s.eed "!& !#e se()e#t '# !#e !u&%s '#te&*a/ 's te a&'t)et'c )ea# !" te t;e/*e
09)'#ute s.eeds !" t's se()e#t '# !#e !u&6
It s!u/d 2e #!ted tat ;e# te /!!. detect!&s &ead t! 2e J1% "!& !ccu.a#c, te ca/cu/ated s.eed
;'// a*e '#*a/'d #u)2e& a#d te !2se&*at'!# ;'// 2e &e)!*ed6 L!!. detect!&s &ead J1% "!& !ccu.a#c
'# t;! c!#d't'!#s7 +6 L!!. detect!&s )a/"u#ct'!# -6 It a..e#s t! a*e #! *e'c/es .ass'#( 2
du&'#( te c!u#t'#( .e&'!d6 U#de& c!#d't'!# +, te !ccu.a#c ;'// c!#t'#ue t! 2e 1 "!& se*e&a/ !u&s
!& e*e# das u#de& c!#d't'!# -, te !ccu.a#c ;'// 2e 1 "!& at /east 0 )'#utes =2ecause te *!/u)e
a#d !ccu.a#c data ;e&e e<t&acted '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s '# t's stud6>6 We# c!#d't'!# - a..e#s,
te !2se&*at'!#s ;'t &e/at'*e/ /!; a*e&a(e !u&/ s.eeds a&e &e)!*ed6 T's )'(t /ead t! s!)e
2'as '# te &e(&ess'!# &esu/t6 But s'#ce te "!u& !u&s '# stud =:711AM711AM, 711AM
711AM, 3711PM0711PM a#d 0711PM8711PM> a&e a// .ea? !u&s, c!#d't'!# - a..e#s ;'t
@u'te /!; .&!2a2'/'t, a#d 'ts '#"/ue#ce !# te "'#a/ &esu/t ;'// 2e s/'(t6
". Meas)ring density in one /o)r:s inter%al
Te e@uat'!# + ca# 2e &e;&'tte# as "!//!;s7
Q le q le
100 Q le 300 5280 5280 (3)
us = 5280 300 occupancy = occupancy =occupancy (mile / s)
100 100
++
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
te#, de#s't ca# 2e ca/cu/ated as "!//!;s7
occupancy
k =
q
=
q
=
100 (4)
(veh / mile)s
le
leu q
5280 5280
occupancy
100
E""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t l e 's assu)ed t! 2e -- "eet, a#d te de#s't k ;'// 2e e@ua/ t!7
occupancy
k =
100
=
5280
occupancy = 2.4 occupancy(veh / mile)()
22 100 22
5280
Te de#s't k est')ated us'#( e@uat'!# 0 's te a*e&a(e de#s't "!& !#e /a#e '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s6 Te a*e&a(e
de#s't !" !#e se()e#t 's te a&'t)et'c )ea# !" te de#s't'es !" a// /a#es6 Fu&te&)!&e, te a*e&a(e de#s't !"
!#e se()e#t '# !#e !u&%s '#te&*a/ 's te a&'t)et'c )ea# !" te t;e/*e 09)'#ute de#s't'es !" t's se()e#t '#
!#e !u&6 Te u#'t !" se()e#t de#s't 's *e'c/es .e& )'/e, .e& /a#e6
.* !orridor selection and st)dy #eriods
1. !orridor selection
T!ta// -- c!&&'d!&s ;e&e se/ected "!& t's stud 2ased !# te "!//!;'#( t;! &u/es7
I6 Te se/ected c!&&'d!&s s!u/d "!&) a (e!(&a.'ca// &e.&ese#tat'*e sa)./e !" te e#t'&e sste)6
Based !# te (e!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs, te "ⅇa c!&&'d!&s ;'t'# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea
ca# 2e c/ass'"'ed '#t! te "!//!;'#( "!u& t.es7 te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e "ⅇa, '#te&c't c!##ect!&,
&ad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e, a#d &ad'a/ "ⅇa !uts'de te 2e/t/'#e
-6 Te -- se/ected c!&&'d!&s c!*e&ed tese "!u& t.es =&e"e& t! A..e#d'< + a#d - >6
II6 Te se/ected c!&&'d!&s s!u/d '#c/ude se()e#ts ;'t a#d ;'t!ut &a). )ete&s, ;'t a#d
;'t!ut VMS, ;'t a#d ;'t!ut '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a), a#d ;'t a#d ;'t!ut HOV /a#es
=&e"e& t! Ta2/e ->6
".St)dy #eriods
Stud .e&'!ds &a#(e "&!) + t! -111, ;'c '#c/udes te .e&'!ds 2e"!&e &a). )ete& sta&t9u., &a). )ete&
'# "u// !.e&at'!#, a#d &a). )ete& e'(t ;ee?s% sut9d!;# '# -111 2e"!&e VMS sta&t9u. a#d VMS '# "u//
!.e&at'!# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '# "u// !.e&at'!# a#d HOV sste) '# "u// !.e&at'!#6
It 's #!ted tat #! J2e"!&e% data a&e '#c/uded "!& '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) a#d HOV sste)6 Te &eas!# 's tat
te sta&t9u. dates !" I43 HOV /a#es a#d I940W HOV /a#es a&e '# +- a#d +3 &es.ect'*e/, 2ut #! /!!.
detect!& data a&e a*a'/a2/e 2e"!&e +36 As t! te '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a), te '#'t'a/ .at&!/
+-
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
&!utes sta&ted '# Dece)2e& +:, a#d add't'!#a/ &!utes ;e&e added "&!) Se.te)2e&, +8, te
J2e"!&e% data c!u/d 2e !2ta'#ed "!& te add't'!#a/ &!utes6 H!;e*e&, a/t!u( /!!. detect!& data
;e&e a*a'/a2/e "&!) +3, te ;e&e '#su""'c'e#t 2e"!&e +86 Fu&te&)!&e, t&ee ea&s a/&ead
"!&) a /!#( stud .e&'!d6 Te /!#(e& te .e&'!d, te )!&e *a&'at'!#s a#d "/uctuat'!#s
e<.e&'e#ced '# te #et;!&?, ;'c ;'// s'(#'"'ca#t/ a""ect te &e(&ess'!# &esu/t6 C!#se@ue#t/,
;e d'd#%t '#c/ude te 2e"!&e data !" te add't'!#a/ &!utes !" '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '# te
data2ase6 Te stud .e&'!ds a#d c!&&'d!& se/ect'!# a&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e -7
Table " & !orridor selection and st)dy #eriods
Ram# Meter +MS 'ig/0ay 'el#er #rogram 'O+ lanes
C!&&'d!&s ;'t Ra). C!&&'d!&s ;'t C!&&'d!&s ;'t H'(;a C!&&'d!&s ;'t
!orridor HOV /a#es
Mete&s =RM+> VMS =VMS+> He/.e& =H'(;a He/.e&+> =HOV+>
Selection C!&&'d!&s ;'t!ut C!&&'d!&s ;'t!ut C!&&'d!&s ;'t!ut H'(;a C!&&'d!&s
Ra). Mete&s =RM1> VMS =VMS1> He/.e& =H'(;a He/.e&1> ;'t!ut HOV /a#es=HOV1>
Be"!&e RM sta&t9u.
=RM1> Be"!&e VMS sta&t9
St)dy RM '# "u// !.e&at'!# H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) '# HOV /a#es '# "u//
u. =VMS1>=RM+> "u// !.e&at'!# =H'(;a !.e&at'!#
#eriods VMS '# "u// RM e'(t ;ee?s% He/.e&+> =HOV+>
!.e&at'!# =VMS+>sut9d!;# '# -111
=RM1>
I# add't'!#, te "!//!;'#( c&'te&'a a&e a../'ed "!& data c!//ect'!#7
+6 Sa)./es a&e (ate&ed !# t.'ca/ ;!&?das =Tuesda, Wed#esda, a#d Tu&sda>6
M!#da a#d F&'da a&e a*!'ded
-6 H!/'das a&e a*!'ded
46 A (a. 2et;ee# te 2e"!&e9a"te& .e&'!ds 's ta?e# t! .e&)'t te .u2/'c t! 2ec!)e accust!)ed t!
te #e; ').&!*e)e#t 2e"!&e a cec? !# 'ts e""ect 's 2e(u#
6 Te /e#(t !" (a.s &a#(e
"&!) 41 t! 1 das '# +6 Due t! te /')'ted #!&)a/ /!!. detect!& data, te /e#(t !"
(a.s '# + &a#(e "&!) +1 t! -1 das6
.Res)lts and analysis&
Te stat'st'ca/ s!"t;a&e STATA ;as used "!& te stud6 Resu/ts ;e&e !2ta'#ed "!& "!u& .ea?
!u&s 99 :711AM711AM, 711AM711AM, 3711PM0711PM, a#d 0711PM8711PM u#de&
2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases6 A// te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s a&e '# !.e&at'!# '#
tese "!u& !u&s6 Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts a&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e 46 N!te7 deta'/ed &e(&ess'!#
&esu/ts !" case stud I a&e '# A..e#d'< 89+46
+4
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
Table * & S)mmary of regression res)lts
I#c'de#t9"&ee
:711AM 711AM 3711PM 0711PM
711AM 711AM 0711PM 8711PM
Nu)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s 141 4:
R9s@ua&ed 16384 16383 16018 1681-8
Adusted R9s@ua&ed 1638-4 1638: 160:4 1681+3
F *a/ueF= -:, 81> F= -:, 11-> F= -:, 1> F= -:, 81>
-:6+4 -36 3086:4 3:603
P&!2 F 161111 161111 161111 161111
I#c'de#t:711AM 711AM 3711PM 0711PM
711AM 711AM 0711PM 8711PM
Nu)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s 480 4:1 4: 3-8
R9s@ua&ed 16:4+0 16:00: 16:00 16811
Adusted R9s@ua&ed 16:10: 16:444 16:44 16884
F *a/ueF= 4-, 44-> F= 4+, 44> F= 4-, 403> F= 44, 4->
-6-: 446:- 436-0 -8633
P&!2 F 161111 161111 161111 161111
Te R9s@ua&ed *a/ues su((est tat s.eed 's a c!)./e< .e#!)e#!# !" ;'c ;e !#/ e<./a'#
a2!ut a/" "!& te '#c'de#t9 "&ee case a#d a2!ut se*e#t .e&ce#t "!& te '#c'de#t case6 But te
a#a/s's 's 2ased !# t&ee ea&s% sste);'de data a#d te #u)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s "!&
'#c'de#t9"&ee case 's tat u(e, ;e a*e t! sa tat te &esu/ts a&e &ea// #!t 2ad6 Te
&e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" de#s't a#d te TMSs a&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e 37Table & T/e regression res)lts of density and t/e TMSs.
I#c'de#t9"&ee
:711AM711AM 711AM711AM 3711PM0711PM 0711PM8711PM
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
t D t D t D t D
De#s't 96-0-101: 16111 =S> 96-01:33 16111=S> 96-8+:48: 16111=S> 9641+-00 16111=S>
RM 36-+ 16111=S> -64-01+ 16111=S> 464+:8 16111=S> 361-- 16111=S>
VMS 9-6:1480- 16111=S> 9-6:80-+ 16111=S> 946++040 16111=S> 9464-+1: 16111=S>
C!#6 HOV 9-6188+ 16111=S> 9+363::: 16111=S> 9--613:30 16111=S> 968-+-33 16111=S>
Ba&6 HOV 9486-:0: 16111=S> 9+:6+:4 16111=S> 9-:6438: 16111=S> 9+:603113 16111=S>
I#c'de#t
:711AM711AM 711AM711AM 3711PM0711PM 0711PM8711PM
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue
t D t D t D t D
De#s't 96:0+44: 16111 =S> 960+813 16111 =S> 9601-883: 16111 =S> 96388- 16111 =S>
H'(;a He/.e& ++634+0 161+0 =S> 6-03+ 161: =S> 630430 1641 =NS> 9+6084 16++ =NS>
RM -643+ 16+0-=NS> 9641883- 163 =NS> 36+1+8-- 16103 =S> 86031+3 161+1 =S>
VMS 9-6+-3: 161-=S> 946-338+- 161++=S> 9064801 16111 =S> 946:0-34 161+1 =S>
+3
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
!ote" S###Significant$ !S###!onsignificant% T&e le'el of significance is %1 in t&is st*y%
De#s't 's a# ').!&ta#t &e"e&e#t ;'c e/.s us u#de&sta#d te e<te#t !" e""ects !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t
sste)s !# s.eed, "!& e<a)./e, '# te '#c'de#t9"&ee case, c!).a&'#( te c!e""'c'e#t !" &a). )ete& du))
=:711AM711AM> ;'t te c!e""'c'e#t !" de#s't =:711AM711AM> ('*es us a# 'dea tat te e""ect !" !#e
&a). )ete& !# )a'#/'#e s.eed 's a..&!<')ate/ e@ua/ t! dec&eas'#( 81 *e'c/es .e& )'/e !# a t&ee9/a#e
"ⅇa se()e#t6 Te est')ate "!& D 's #e(at'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t "!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases,
'#d'cat'#( a #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# s.eed a#d de#s't, e6(6, ;e# D 's est')ated t! 2e 916-0
=:711AM711AM, '#c'de#t9"&ee>, te de#s't '#c&eases 2 !#e u#'t =*e$)'/e, /a#e> ;'// /ead t!
te /'#? s.eed dec&ease 2 16-0 )'/e$&, assu)'#( tat te !te& te&)s a&e e/d "'<ed6
Te "!//!;'#( a#a/es te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" te TMSs "!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases6
I. Ram# Metering System&
F!& '#c'de#t9"&ee case, te est')ates "!& &a). )ete& du)) a&e .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t '# a// te "!u&
!u&s, '#d'cat'#( tat te !.e&at'!# !" &a). )ete&'#( sste) '#c&eases )a'#/'#e s.eed6 T's &esu/t
acc!&ds ;'t .&e*'!us stud'es6 Te -11+ T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea Ra). Mete& Stud =2 Ca)2&'d(e
Sste)at'cs>-
s!;ed tat !# a*e&a(e, '# te a2se#ce !" )ete&'#(, "ⅇa s.eeds dec&eased 2
a..&!<')ate/ : )'/es .e& !u& '# te .ea? .e&'!d a#d 2 + )'/es .e& !u& du&'#( te .ea? !u&6 T's
&esu/t 's 2ased !# te e'(t ;ee?s% &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;# data, ;'/e !u& stud 's 2ased !#
t&ee ea&s% data ='#c/ud'#( .&e*'!us t! &a). )ete& sta&t9u. .e&'!d, &a). )ete& '# "u// !.e&at'!# .e&'!d,
a#d &a). )ete& e'(t ;ee?s% sut9d!;# .e&'!d>, s! te /!#( &u# t&e#d ;as est')ated6
Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/t ca# 2e e<./a'#ed as 2e/!;7 '" ;e a*e t;! c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t a//
ca&acte&'st'cs te sa)e, e<ce.t tat !#e as &a). )ete&'#( a#d te !te& d!es#%t, ;e ;!u/d
e<.ect te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t &a). )ete&'#( t! 2e 36 )'/e$& =:711AM711AM> "aste&
ta# te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#(6
It s!u/d 2e #!ted tat te *a/ue !" te &a). )ete&'#( du)) c!e""'c'e#t 's a Jc!#se&*at'*e% est')ate, tat 's,
t's *a/ue s!u/d 2e /ess ta# te "u// e""ects !" &a). )ete&'#( !# )a'#/'#e s.eed6 As ;e d'scussed '# 36+6-,
&a). )ete&'#( a""ects )a'#/'#e s.eed t&!u( 2!t )a'#/'#e de#s't a#d d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 Te .a&t !" &a).
)ete&'#(%s e""ects !# c!#t&!//'#( )a'#/'#e de#s't ;as #!t e<./a'#ed 2 te &a). )ete&'#( du))6 Te actua//
e""ects !" &a). )ete&'#( s!u/d 2e e*e# 2'((e&6
F!& '#c'de#t case, - !" te 3 est')ates !" &a). )ete& du)) a&e '#s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c '#d'cates
tat !/d'#( te !te& te&)s "'<ed, c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t &a). )ete&'#( a&e #!t #ecessa&'/
"aste& =!& s/!;e&> ta# c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#( '# !te& ;!&ds, te e""ects !"
te &a). )ete&'#( '# '#c&eas'#( )a'#/'#e s.eed ;!#%t a/;as !""set te '#c'de#t '#"/ue#ces6
+0
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
II. +ariable message signs&
It s!u/d 2e )e#t'!#ed "'&st/ tat d'""e&e#t "&!) Ra). Mete&'#( sste) a#d HOV sste), ;'c
2!t a*e &e/at'*e/ "'<ed !.e&at'!#a/ !u&s, VMS 's act'*e !#/ ;e# Js.ec'a/ e*e#ts% a..e#6 But 't
's ').!ss'2/e "!& us t! !2ta'# te deta'/ed sta&t'#( t')e a#d du&at'!# !" tese VMS )essa(es6
Te&e"!&e, ;e ad t! de"'#e te VMS du)) as J+% '" te stud'ed c!&&'d!& se()e#t 's ;'t'# te
').act'#( &a#(e !" VMS6 Te ').act'#( &a#(e !" VMS 's de"'#ed as te se()e#ts tat ca# Jsee% te
VMS )essa(es a#d te - t! 4 se()e#ts d!;#st&ea) te VMS6 Te&e"!&e, ;at ;e est')ate e&e
's actua// te ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# s.eed a#d VMS ').act'#( &a#(e6
F!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee case a#d '#c'de#t case, te est')ates "!& VMS du)) a&e #e(at'*e a#d
s'(#'"'ca#t '# a// te "!u& !u&s6 Te #e(at'*e ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# s.eed a#d VMS ').act'#(
&a#(e ca# 2e e<./a'#ed as "!//!;s7
+6 VMSs a*e ').acts !# d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 VMSs a&e de*'ces '#sta//ed a/!#( te &!ads'de t!
d's./a )essa(es !" s.ec'a/ e*e#ts ;a&#'#( suc as c!#(est'!#, '#c'de#t, &!ad;!&? !#e !&
s.eed /')'t t! a/e&t t&a*e/e&s !" t&a""'c .&!2/e)s aead6 Te )essa(es d's./aed 2 VMSs
a*e ').acts !# d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 D&'*e&s t.'ca// s/!; d!;# t! *'e; te )essa(e a#d t!
./a# a/te&#at'*e &!utes, a#d s!)e !" te) )a d'*e&t t! !te& &!ad;as6
-6 Te d'st&'2ut'!# ca&acte&'st'cs !" VMSs c!#t&'2ute t! te #e(at'*e ass!c'at'!#6 M!st !" te VMSs '#
te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea a&e /!cated at te "ⅇa se()e#ts ;'t '( AADT6 Tese se()e#ts a&e
t.'ca// )!&e c!#(ested a#d a*e /!;e& )a'#/'#e s.eed6 Te #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'.
2et;ee# s.eed a#d *a&'a2/e )essa(e s'(#s 's .a&t/ due t! te d'st&'2ut'!#
ca&acte&'st'cs !" te VMSs6
Te#, s!u/d ;e st!. us'#( VMS s'#ce VMS ').act'#( &a#(e 's ass!c'ated ;'t /!;e&
)a'#/'#e s.eed P&!2a2/ #!t6 Because te s.eed dec&ease at !#e c!&&'d!& =VMS ').act'#(
&a#(e> )a .&e*e#t te&&'2/e c!#(est'!# at s!)e !te& c!&&'d!&s6 Fu&te& stud s!u/d 2e d!#e
t! ('*e a )!&e c!).&ee#s'*e e*a/uat'!# !" VMS6
III. 'ig/0ay 'el#er #rogram&
H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) 's #!t '#c/uded '# te '#c'de#t9"&ee case 2ecause ;e# te stud'ed
se()e#ts a&e '#c'de#t9"&ee, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) 's #!t act'*e6
I# te '#c'de#t case, t;! !" te "!u& est')ates a&e .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t =:711AM9711AM a#d
711AM9711AM>, a#d t;! a&e '#s'(#'"'ca#t =3711PM90711PM a#d 0711PM98711PM>6 Te .!s't'*e
a#d s'(#'"'ca#t ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# s.eed a#d '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '#d'cates tat '# '#c'de#t
case, te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .at&!/ a&eas ;'// 2e "aste& ta# te c!&&'d!&
se()e#ts !ut !" te a&eas ;'/e te '#s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ca# 2e due t! t;! &eas!#s7
+6 te sa)./e s'e 's '#su""'c'e#t t! detect te a/te&#at'*e '# t's s'tuat'!#+4
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-6 It 's .a&t/ due t! te "act tat te '#c'de#t ').act !# s.eed 's #!t '# !#e d'&ect'!#6 A/t!u( te
s.eed !# c!&&'d!&s c!*e&ed 2 '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ca# 2e '#c&eased ='" a#>, te s.eed !#
c!&&'d!&s !ut !" '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ;!#%t #ecessa&'/ dec&ease6 Actua//, '#c'de#ts
d!;#st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t t.'ca// dec&ease 'ts s.eed, ;'/e '#c'de#ts
u.st&ea) te se()e#t )'(t cause '#c&ease '# 'ts s.eed6
I+. 'O+ system&
I# te a#a/s's !" te t;! ?'#ds !" HOV sste)s, te s.eed 's "!& te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6 Tat%s
2ecause ;e a*e #! '#te&est t! test te HOV /a#es% ass!c'at'!# ;'t s.eed =te ;'// a*e .!s't'*e
&e/at'!#s'.> ;at ;e ;a#t t! est')ate 's te ').act !" te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es t! te (e#e&a/9
.u&.!se /a#es6 Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts '# '#c'de#t9"&ee case s!; tat a// te est')ates ="!& 2!t
C!#cu&&e#t HOV du)) a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV du))> a&e #e(at'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c
'#d'cates tat te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es 's ass!c'ated ;'t /!;e& s.eed !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se
/a#es6 F!& '#c'de#t case, 't 's d'""'cu/t t! ('*e te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts a &eas!#a2/e e<./a#at'!# due t!
te /!; data9@ua/'t6 I#c'de#t /!( d'd#%t &ec!&d !# ;'c /a#e te '#c'de#ts actua// a..e#ed999HOV
/a#es !& (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6 S! ;e d'd#%t /'st te HOV &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts "!& '#c'de#t case6
5. !ase st)dy II & Using incident rate as res#onse %ariable
5.1 ata collection
TMC "ⅇa '#c'de#t &ec!&d "!& T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea sta&ted "&!) ++, 2ut ;e !#/ usedte data !" Fa// -111 "!& t's stud6 Te ea&/'e& ea&s% '#c'de#t data ca#%t 2e used "!& t's
sste);'de a#a/s's due t! te "!//!;'#( &eas!#s7
+> Te '#c'de#t &ec!&d sta&ted at d'""e&e#t ea&s "!& d'""e&e#t c!&&'d!&s 999 s!)e c!&&'d!&s
"&!) ++, ;'/e s!)e !te&s e*e# as /ate as +
-> Based !# te '#c'de#t &ec!&d, te '#c'de#ts '#c&eased t&e)e#d!us/ '# te .ast te# ea&s6 But t's
'#c&ease ;as .a&t/ caused 2 te add't'!# !" #e; ca)e&as, te u.(&ade !" e@u'.)e#t, a#d te
').&!*ed )!#'t!&'#( )et!ds6
We c!//ected te '#c'de#t data "!& t;! .e&'!ds '# Fa// -111 999 4: ;!&?das ="&!) Au(6 -- t! Oct6+4>2e"!&e &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;# =Re"e& t! -11+ T;'# C't'es Met&! A&ea Ra). Mete& Stud
F'#a/ &e.!&t-
> a#d 4: ;!&?das = "&!) Oct6 +8 t! Dec6 1:> du&'#( &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;#6
I#c'de#t &ec!&ds du&'#( tese t;! .e&'!ds a*e )uc '(e& @ua/'t ta# 2e"!&e 2ecause du&'#( tese
t;! .e&'!ds te ca)e&a )!#'t!&'#( sste) c!*e&ed te ;!/e #et;!&? a#d ;as !.e&ated u#de& te
sa)e )!#'t!&'#( st&ate('es a#d e@u'.)e#t c!#d't'!#s6 I# add't'!#, '#c'de#t data ;as c!u#ted 2et;ee#
:711AM t!+711 PM, ;'c ;e&e te !.e&at'!#a/ !u&s !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)6
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+
F'(u&e :6 I#te§'!#s !# C!&&'d!& +
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As t! '#c'de#t t.es, s'#ce ;at ;e ;a#t t! test 's te ass!c'at'!# !" '#c'de#t &ate a#d te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t
sste), ;e &e)!*ed te '#c'de#ts caused 2 *e'c/e )eca#'ca/ )a/"u#ct'!#s suc as sta//s a#d *e'c/e "'&es
a#d te '#c'de#ts caused 2 de2&'s !# &!ad6 F'#a// t&ee ?'#ds !" '#c'de#ts ;e&e '#c/uded999 c&as, &!//!*e& a#d
s.'#!ut, ;e&e, c&as '#c'de#ts c!u#ted "!& )!&e ta# : !" a// '#c'de#ts6
5." !orridor selection
I# t!ta/, -8 c!&&'d!&s ;e&e se/ected "!& t's stud ;'c #ea&/ c!*e& te ;!/e T;'# C't'es )et&!
a&ea "ⅇa #et;!&? =&e"e& t! A..e#d'< 3>6 Te u#se/ected c!&&'d!&s ;e&e t!se !uts'de !" TMC
ca)e&a )!#'t!&'#(6 Te "ac'/'t status !" eac c!&&'d!& ;as su))a&'ed '# A..e#d'< 06
5.* Regression model
It s!u/d 2e #!ted tat ;'t te s!&t '#c'de#t c!u#t'#( .e&'!ds =4: ;!&?das 2e"!&e a#d du&'#( &a). )ete&'#(
sut9d!;# &es.ect'*e/> ;e ca# (ua&a#tee te @ua/'t !" '#c'de#t data !;e*e&, 't 's a/s! due t! te s!&t
'#c'de#t c!u#t'#( .e&'!ds ;e a*e t! se/ect /!#( c!&&'d!&s t! e#su&e a #!#9e&! #u)2e& !" '#c'de#ts6 We# te
c!&&'d!&s a&e /!#(, 't 's ').!ss'2/e t! '#c/ude s!)e t&a""'c !& '#"&ast&uctu&e ca&acte&'st'cs as .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es
a/t!u( tese ca&acte&'st'cs )a 2e &e/e*a#t t! te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e6 F!& e<a)./e, s!)e t&a""'c st&ea)
ca&acte&'st'cs 9suc as /'#? s.eed, "/!; !& de#s't 9 s!u/d 2e te .!te#t'a/ .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es !" '#c'de#t
&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's, 2ut "!& a /!#( c!&&'d!& =;'c as se*e&a/ se()e#ts>, te s.eed, "/!; !& de#s't !" te
se()e#ts *a& (&eat/ a#d #!#e !" te) c!u/d 2e &e.&ese#ted 2 a s'#(/e *a/ue6 A/s! te (e!)et&'c
ca&acte&'st'cs ca#%t 2e &e.&ese#ted 2 a
u#'"!&) "!&)at "!& a// te se()e#ts !" a /!#( c!&&'d!&6 F'#a// ;e '#c/uded
/')'ted .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '# te &e(&ess'!# )!de/6
Te )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/ ca# 2e &e.&ese#ted as 2e/!;7
I#c'de#t Rate 1 + ⋅ I#te§'!# De#s't R ⋅ Ra). Mete& =+,1> , ⋅
VMS De#s't - ⋅ H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) =+,1> . 40 ⋅ C!#cu&&e#t HOV
'# I940W =+,1> . 43 ⋅ C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 =+,1> / 43 ⋅ Ba&&'e&9
se.a&ated HOV '# I943 =+,1>
ε We&e,te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e 's I#c'de#t Rate, ;'c 's te #u)2e& !" '#c'de#ts .e& )'/e6
Eac c!&&'d!& as t;! d'&ect'!#s, a#d eac d'&ect'!# ;'// a*e t;! !2se&*at'!#s999
I#c'de#t Rate 2e"!&e sut9d!;# a#d I#c'de#t Rate du&'#( sut9d!;#6
Te .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '#c/ude I#te§'!# De#s't, Ra). Mete&'#( Du)),
VMS De#s't, H'(;a He/.e& Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 Du)) a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 Du))6
Te '#te§'!# de#s't 's te #u)2e& !" '#te§'!#s .e& )'/e6 F!& e<a)./e, F'(u&e : s!;s
tat c!&&'d!& + !# I933 as 8 '#te§'!#s6 S'#ce 't 's ').!ss'2/e t! '#c/ude deta'/ed t&a""'c !&
'#"&ast&uctu&e ca&acte&'st'cs as .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '# t's )!de/, ;e use '#te§'!# de#s't
as a su2st'tute6 JBus% c!&&'d!&s te#d t! a*e '(e& '#te§'!# de#s't, a#d '# *'e; !"
(e!)et&'c st&uctu&e '#te§'!# 's )!&e Jda#(e&!us% ta# st&a'(t /'#e '# te )et&! a&ea,
te&e"!&e, te '#te§'!# de#s't !" a c!&&'d!& s!u/d 2e st&!#(/ &e/ated t! 'ts '#c'de#t &ate6
Ra). Mete&'#( Du)), H'(;a He/.e& Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W Du)),
C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 Du)) a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 Du)) a&e de"'#ed as7
Ra). Mete&+ '" te c!&&'d!& 's u#de& &a). )ete&'#( c!#t&!/ !te&;'se, Ra). Mete&16
H'(;a He/.e& + '" te c!&&'d!& 's ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/ a&ea !te&;'se,
H'(;a He/.e& 16
HOV+ '" te c!&&'d!& as HOV /a#e=s> '# !.e&at'!# !te&;'se, HOV16
As t! VMS, VMS de#s't 's a )!&e &eas!#a2/e )easu&e ta# VMS ').act'#( &a#(e "!& /!#( c!&&'d!&s6 VMS
de#s't 's te #u)2e& !" VMSs .e& )'/e ;'c 's c!u#ted "!& 2!t d'&ect'!#s !" eac c!&&'d!&6
5. Regression Res)lt Analysis&
Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts ;e&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e 06 Te R9s@ua&ed *a/ue s!;s tat te &e(&ess'!# )!de/
!#/ e<./a'#s a2!ut t'&t .e&ce#t !" te !2se&*at'!#s6 Tat 's 2ecause ;e '#c/uded /')'ted .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '#
t's )!de/, 2ut actua// '#c'de#t 's suc a# '&&e(u/a& a#d c!)./e< .e#!)e#a, *a&'!us &eas!#s99suc as d&'*e&
"act!&s, *e'c/e "act!&s, t&a""'c st&ea) "act!&s, a#d (e!)et&'c st&uctu&e !& .a*e)e#t @ua/'t "act!&s99)a
c!#t&'2ute t! 'ts !ccu&&e#ce6 Ta2/e 8 su))a&'es te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" eac !" te '#de.e#de#t *a&'a2/es6
N!te7 deta'/ed &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" case stud II a&e '# A..e#d'< +36
Table 5 & S)mmary of regression res)lts
Nu)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s
R9s@ua&ed 164:83
Adusted R9s@ua&ed 164-:
F *a/ue :6:8P&!2 F 161111
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
Table 8 & Regression res)lts of t/e inde#endent %ariables
I#de.e#de#tC!e""'c'e#t P9*a/ue
S'(#'"'ca#t !& Sta#da&dt9*a/ue
Va&'a2/es #!t s'(#'"'ca#t e&&!&
I#te§'!#+641-3+3 161+4 S 60+3414- -604-
De#s't
Ra). Mete&'#( 9+61:+43 1611+ S 64-38+1- 946411
VMS De#s't 36+:-4 16140 S +60+043 -6+4
H'(;a He/.e& +633034 16114 S 6380+00 4610
C!#cu&&e#t HOV6-4+001- 16: NS 6083:43 16-:1
'# I940W
C!#cu&&e#t HOV963130: 16-1 NS 6804:1- 9+61:
'# I943Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated
-63818 1611 S 61+-:14 -6:41HOV '# I943
!ote" S###Significant$ !S###!onsignificant% T&e le'el of significance is %1 in t&is st*y%
I#te§'!# De#s't as .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ;'t '#c'de#t &ate, ;'c '#d'cates tat
te )!&e '#te§'!#s te '(e& '#c'de#t &ate6 T's &esu/t acc!&ds ;'t !u& e<.ectat'!#6 H!;e*e&,
't s!u/d a/s! 2e #!ted tat )!&e ta# a/" !" te su&*e'//a#ce ca)e&as a&e /!cated at !& #ea& te
'#te§'!#s, Jte )!&e '#te§'!#s te '(e& '#c'de#t &ate% )a 2e .a&t/ due t! te "act tat Jte
)!&e '#te§'!#s te )!&e ca)e&as%, a#d te )!&e ca)e&as, te )!&e '#c'de#ts &e.!&ted6
Ra). Mete&'#( as #e(at'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ;'t '#c'de#t &ate, ;'c '#d'cates
tat &a). )ete&'#( 's *e& e""ect'*e '# &educ'#( '#c'de#ts6 T's &esu/t acc!&ds ;'t te T;'#
C't'es Met&! A&ea Ra). Mete& Stud-
, ;'c s!;ed &a). )ete&'#( &esu/ts '# a##ua/
sa*'#(s !" +,13+ c&ases ="!u& c&ases .e& da>6
Te .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# VMS De#s't a#d '#c'de#t &ate '#d'cates tat
c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& VMS de#s't a&e t.'ca// te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& '#c'de#t &ate6
H'(;a He/.e& 's .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c '#d'cates tat te c!&&'d!&s u#de&
H'(;a He/.e& .at&!/ a&e te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& '#c'de#t &ate
C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W a#d C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 a&e 2!t '#s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c '#d'cates
tat te !.e&at'!# !" C!#cu&&e#t HOV as #! e""ects !# te t!ta/ '#c'de#t &ate !" (e#e&a/
.u&.!se /a#es a#d HOV /a#e6
It s!u/d 2e #!t'ced tat a/t!u( C!#cu&&e#t HOV d'd#%t '#c&ease te t!ta/ '#c'de#t &ate, 't
d!es#%t &u/e !ut te .!ss'2'/'t tat te '#c&ease !" te '#c'de#t &ate !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se
/a#es ;as !""set 2 te dec&ease !" te '#c'de#t &ate !# te HOV /a#e6 Te &eas!# "!& )a?'#(
t's .!tes's 's tat HOV /a#e t.'ca// ca&&'es )uc /ess t&a""'c ta# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se
/a#e6 H!;e*e&, te '#c'de#t /!( d'd#%t &ec!&d !# ;'c /a#es te '#c'de#ts actua// a..e#ed999
HOV /a#es !& (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es, te&e"!&e, ;e ca#%t test te .!tes's6
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Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 's .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t =as '( as -63>, ;'c '#d'cates tat te
!.e&at'!# !" Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 's st&!#(/ ass!c'ated ;'t te '#c&ease '# te t!ta/ '#c'de#t &ate !"
(e#e&a/ .u&.!se /a#es a#d HOV /a#es6 T's &esu/t acc!&ds ;'t .u2/'c d'ssat's"act'!# a2!ut HOV 9999
caus'#( '#c'de#t '#c&ease6
8. !oncl)sion&
T's stud used te )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/ t! e*a/uate te /!#(9&u# .e&"!&)a#ce !" "!u& t&a""'c
)a#a(e)e#t sste)s 999 Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s =VMS>, H'(;a He/.e&
P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste) '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6 L'#? s.eed a#d
'#c'de#t &ate ;e&e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e se.a&ate/ "!& case stud I a#d case stud II6
I# case stud I, a u(e data2ase !" a2!ut 31,111 !2se&*at'!#s c!*e&'#( t&ee ea&s% data ;as esta2/'sed6
Te /!#(9&u# a#d sste);'de .e&"!&)a#ces !" te "!u& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s ;e&e est')ated "!& 2!t
'#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases6 Te ?e "'#d'#(s a&e su))a&'ed as "!//!;s7
F!& '#c'de#t9"&ee case, &a). )ete&'#( 's e""ect'*e '# '#c&eas'#( )a'#/'#e s.eed6 F!& e<a)./e, "&!)
:711AM t! 711AM, te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t &a). )ete&'#( 's est')ated t! 2e 36 )'/e$& "aste& ta#
te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#( a#d te e""ect !" !#e &a). )ete& !# )a'#/'#e s.eed 's
a..&!<')ate/ e@ua/ t! dec&eas'#( 81 *e'c/es .e& )'/e !# a t&ee9/a#e "ⅇa se()e#t6 F!& '#c'de#t
case !;e*e&, c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t &a). )ete&'#( a&e #!t #ecessa&'/ "aste& !& s/!;e& ta# c!&&'d!&
se()e#ts ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#(, ;'c '#d'cates te e""ects !" te &a). )ete&'#( '# '#c&eas'#(
)a'#/'#e s.eed ;!#%t a/;as !""set te '#c'de#t '#"/ue#ces6
F!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t case, te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t'# VMS ').act'#(
&a#(e ;'// 2e /!;e& ta# te c!&&'d!& se()e#t !uts'de6 Te #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'. s!u/d
2e due t! t;! &eas!#s7 +6 VMS )essa(es% ').acts !# d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s -6 te
(e!(&a.'c d'st&'2ut'!# ca&acte&'st'cs !" te VMSs 6
H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) ;as e*a/uated !#/ '# te '#c'de#t case6 Te H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)
du)) c!e""'c'e#t "!& :711AM9711AM a#d 711AM9711AM a&e .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c
'#d'cates tat '# t's case, te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .at&!/ a&eas ;'// 2e "aste& ta#
te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts !ut !" te a&eas6 H!;e*e&, te H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) du)) c!e""'c'e#t "!&
3711PM90711PM a#d 0711PM98711PM a&e '#s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c )a 2e due t! te sa)./e s'e .&!2/e)
!& )a 2e due t! te "act tat te '#c'de#t ').act !# s.eed 's #!t '# !#e d'&ect'!# 999a/t!u( te
s.eed !# c!&&'d!&s c!*e&ed 2 '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ca# 2e '#c&eased ='" a#>, te s.eed !#
c!&&'d!&s !ut !" '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ;!#%t #ecessa&'/ dec&ease6
I# '#c'de#t9"&ee case, te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es 's ass!c'ated ;'t /!;e& s.eed !#
te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6
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I# case stud II, '#c'de#t &ate a#a/s's ;as 2ased !# te '#c'de#t data c!//ected "!& t;!
.e&'!ds '# Fa// -111 999 2e"!&e &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;# a#d du&'#( &a). )ete&'#(
sste) sut9d!;#6 Te ?e "'#d'#(s a&e su))a&'ed as 2e/!;7
Ra). Mete&'#( sste) 's ass!c'ated ;'t a /!;e& '#c'de#t &ate 2ecause ;e tested te
sa)e sect'!#s ;'t a#d ;'t!ut )ete&s, ;e 2e/'e*e t's 's a causa/ e""ect
B!t te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& VMS de#s't a#d te c!&&'d!&s u#de& H'(;a He/.e&
.at&!/ a&e t.'ca// te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& '#c'de#t &ate
Te !.e&at'!# !" C!#cu&&e#t HOV d!es#%t a*e a s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ;'t '#c'de#t
&ate ca#(e !;e*e&, ;e ca# #!t &u/e !ut te .!ss'2'/'t tat te '#c&ease !" te '#c'de#t
&ate !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es ;as !""set 2 te dec&ease !" te '#c'de#t &ate !# te
HOV /a#e =!& *'ce *e&sa>
Te !.e&at'!# !" Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 's ass!c'ated ;'t te '#c&ease !" te t!ta/
'#c'de#t &ate !" (e#e&a/ .u&.!se /a#es a#d HOV /a#es
I# "utu&e ;!&?, ').&!*e)e#t c!u/d 2e )ade t&!u( te "!//!;'#( as.ects7
F!& &a). )ete&'#( e*a/uat'!#, te cu&&e#t s.eed &e(&ess'!# )!de/ .&!*'ded a Jc!#se&*at'*e%
est')ate, ;'c s!u/d 2e /ess ta# te "u// e""ects !" &a). )ete&'#( !# )a'#/'#e s.eed6 A#
').&!*ed )!de/ s!u/d 2e a2/e t! est')ate te .a&t !" &a). )ete&'#(%s e""ects !# c!#t&!//'#(
)a'#/'#e de#s't ;'c ;as #!t e<./a'#ed 2 te &a). )ete&'#( du))6
Ou& stud "!u#d te #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# VMS ').act'#( &a#(e a#d )a'#/'#e s.eed6
But ;e d'd#%t% a#s;e& te @uest'!# ;ete& te s.eed dec&ease at !#e c!&&'d!& =VMS
').act'#( &a#(e> &ea// e/. .&e*e#t )!&e se&'!us c!#(est'!# at s!)e !te& c!&&'d!&s6 M!&e
deta'/ed stud s!u/d 2e d!#e t! ('*e a c!).&ee#s'*e e*a/uat'!# !" VMS6
F!& HOV sste), ;e (!t te c!#c/us'!# tat te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es 's ass!c'ated
;'t /!;e& s.eed !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6 H!;e*e&, s'#ce te .u&.!se !" HOV
sste) 's t! &educe sste) PHT =.e&s!# !u&s t&a*e/ed>, "u&te& stud )ust 2e d!#e t!
dete&)'#e ;ete& te .e&s!#9!u&s '#c&ease !# (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es ='" a#> c!u/d
2e !""set 2 te .e&s!#9!u&s dec&ease !# HOV /a#es =!& *'ce *e&sa>6
Dec&eas'#( data9/')'tat'!#s6 A )a!& 'ssue '# &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's 's te @ua/'t !" data2ase6
Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's .&!*'des '#"!&)at'!# !# &e/at'!#s'.s 2et;ee# a &es.!#se *a&'a2/e a#d
.&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es 2ut !#/ t! te de(&ee tat suc '#"!&)at'!# 's c!#ta'#ed '# te data2ase8
6
Due t! data @ua/'t, te a#a/s's !" HOV sste) ca#%t 2e c!#ducted '# '#c'de#t case6 A/s!, te
e*a/uat'!# !" VMS 's /')'ted 2 te /ac? !" deta'/ed act'*'t /!(6 I# add't'!#, &est&'cted 2 te ea&/'e&
ea&s% '#c'de#t data @ua/'t, ;e ust used te '#c'de#t data '# Fa// -111 "!& '#c'de#t &ate
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&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's6 Te /')'ted stud .e&'!ds /ead t! te se/ect'!# !" /!#( c!&&'d!&s,
;'c .&e*e#ted us "&!) e)./!'#( deta'/ed /'#? t&a""'c a#d '#"&ast&uctu&e
ca&acte&'st'cs as .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es6
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References&
+6 Ba#?s, a)es H6 Ke//, G&e(!& =+:>6 T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t Sste)s Pe&"!&)a#ce
Measu&e)e#t F'#a/ Re.!&t6 Ca/'"!&#'a PATH Resea&c Re.!&t =UCB9ITS9PRR9:904>6
-6 Ca)2&'d(e Sste)at'cs, I#c =-11+>6 T;'# C't'es Met&! A&ea Ra). Mete& Stud6 F'#a/
&e.!&t .&e.a&ed "!& M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!#6
tt.7$$;;;6d!t6state6)#6us$&a).)ete&stud$&e.!&ts6t)/ 6
46 Ca)2&'d(e Sste)at'cs, I#c =-11->6 T;'# C't'es HOV Stud6 F'#a/ &e.!&t .&e.a&ed "!&
M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!#6 tt.7$$;;;6d!t6state6)#6us$'#"!&)at'!#$!*$6
36 C!!?, R6 De##'s6 A../'ed &e(&ess'!# '#c/ud'#( c!).ut'#( a#d (&a.'cs6 Pu2/'sed
2 !# W'/e S!#s, I#c6 +6
06 DeG&!!t, M!&&'s H6 P&!2a2'/'t a#d stat'st'cs, -#d ed6 Pu2/'sed 2 Add's!#9Wes/e
Pu26 C!6, c+86
86 Gu#st, R'ca&d F6 Mas!#, R!2e&t L6 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's a#d 'ts a../'cat'!#7 a data9
!&'e#ted a..&!ac6 Pu2/'sed 2 M6 De??e&, c+1, Ne; Y!&?6
:6 Ha//, F&ed L6 T&a""'c F/!; Te!&7 A State !" te A&t Re.!&t, Ca.te& -7 T&a""'c St&ea)
Ca&acte&'st'cs6 S.!#s!&ed 2 te T&a#s.!&tat'!# Resea&c B!a&dXs C!))'ttee !#
Te!& !" T&a""'c F/!; =A4A++>, "u#ded 2 Fede&a/ H'(;a Ad)'#'st&at'!# =FHWA> '#
u#e +-6 tt.7$$;;;9cta6!&#/6(!*$cta$&esea&c$t&2$t"t6t)/
6 I#st'tute !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# E#('#ee&s =ITE>6 Ma#ua/ !" T&a""'c E#('#ee&'#( Stud'es,
4&d ed6 Was'#(t!#, +836
6 Le*'#s!#, Da*'d a#(, Le' Das, Sa#ta#u Se'?, At'" =-11-> Ra). Mete&s !# T&'a/7
E*'de#ce "&!) te T;'# C't'es Ra). Mete&s Sut9!""6 P&ese#ted at +st T&a#s.!&tat'!#
Resea&c B!a&d C!#"e&e#ce, Was'#(t!# DC -11- =TRB91-9-+8:>6
+16 Le*'#s!#, Da*'d =-11->6 Pe&s.ect'*es !# E""'c'e#c '# T&a#s.!&tat'!#6 P&ese#ted at te +st
T&a#s.!&tat'!# Resea&c B!a&d C!#"e&e#ce, Was'#(t!# DC -11- =TRB91-9-1+0>6
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++6 M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# =-111 a#d -11+>6 Fⅇa T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t
P&!(&a) Status Re.!&t6 tt.7$$de.ts6;as'#(t!#6edu$t&2a4a1$status$a#-11+$M'##es!ta6.d" 6
tt.7$$de.ts6;as'#(t!#6edu$t&2a4a1$status$u#-111$)'##es!ta6.d" 6
+-6 M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t
Ce#te&6 tt.7$$;;;6d!t6state6)#6us$t)c$6
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A##endi9 1. !ase st)dy I& !orridor selection
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A##endi9 ". !ase st)dy I& !orridor selection
!orridor ;eogra#/ic c/aracteristics (rom To
I23N< Be/t/'#e "ⅇa CR 8 I93
I23S< Be/t/'#e "ⅇa Bass La?e Rd CR 8
I23W< Be/t/'#e "ⅇa I940W TH +8
I23=< Be/t/'#e "ⅇa TH +8 I940W
I283W< Be/t/'#e "ⅇa I940W TH -0-
I283=< Be/t/'#e "ⅇa TH -0- I940W
I23W< I#te&c't c!##ect!& I940E TH -1
I23=< I#te&c't c!##ect!& TH -1 I940E
I23N< Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e B&!ad;a Hu)2!/dt
I23S< Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e Hu)2!/dt TH 00
I2*3W< Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e I93 TH +11
I2*3=< Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e TH +11 I93
I2*5= N< ,Nort/ of I23- Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e I93 TH 48
I2*5= S< ,Nort/ of I23- Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e TH 48 I93
I2*5= N< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e I933 ST6 C/a'&
I2*5= S< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "ⅇa ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e 0TH Ke//!(( I933
I2*5W N< Rad'a/ "ⅇa !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e M'ss'ss'..' R'*e& 8TH
I2*5W S< Rad'a/ "ⅇa !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e 8TH ++4TH ST6
I2*5= N< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "ⅇa !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e CR ++ D'""/e RD6
I2*5= S< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "ⅇa !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/ '#e D'""/e RD6 TH9::
T'2>> N< Rad'a/ "ⅇa !uts 'de te I933$I983 2e/t/ '#e +-:TH O/d
Sa?!.ee
T'2>> S< Rad'a/ "ⅇa !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e O/d Sa?!.ee I940E
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A##endi9 *. !ase st)dy I& T/e correlation matri9es of #redictor %ariables
I. Incident2free&
>&??AM2 @&??AM2
@&??AM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+ 3&??AM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+
=NSIT +611 16+ 916+4 161 1618 =NSIT +611 16+ 9161 16+0 161:
RM 16+ +611 161+ 91614 91614 RM 16+ +611 161- 91614 91614
+MS 916+4 161+ +611 91610 91610 +MS 9161 161- +611 91613 91610
!on'O+ 161 91614 91610 +611 91610 !on'O+ 16+0 91614 91613 +611 91610
<ar'O+ 1618 91614 91610 91610 +611 <ar'O+ 161: 91614 91610 91610 +611
&??PM2 5&??PM25&??PM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+ 8&??PM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+
=NSIT +611 161 161: 16+0 161 =NSIT +611 161: 161: 16+- 16+4
RM 161 +611 161+ 91614 91614 RM 161: +611 161+ 9161- 91614
+MS 161: 161+ +611 91610 91613 +MS 161: 161+ +611 91610 91613
!on'O+ 16+0 91614 91610 +611 91610 !on'O+ 16+- 9161- 91610 +611 91610
<ar'O+ 161 91614 91613 91610 +611 <ar'O+ 16+4 91614 91613 91610 +611
II. Incident&
??AM2=NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+ <ar'O+
@&??AM2=NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+??AM 3&??AM
NSIT +611 916++ 9164- 91614 1610 161- =NSIT +611 16+1 916+3 16-- 161+
RM 916++ +611 16+8 16- 916+- 9161 RM 16+1 +611 1610 16- 9161:
+MS 9164- 16+8 +611 16-0 916+1 91613 +MS 916+3 1610 +611 16+: 916+3
=4P=R 91614 16- 16-0 +611 161 16+1 ''=4P=R 16-- 16- 16+: +611 1613
n'O+ 1610 916+- 916+1 161 +611 91610 !on'O+ 161+ 9161: 916+3 1613 +611
r'O+ 161- 9161 91613 16+1 91610 +611 <ar'O+ 9161- 9161: 91614 16+4 91613
??PM2 5&??PM2??PM =NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+ <ar'O+ 8&??PM =NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+
NSIT +611 161- 16+1 16+- 1614 161- =NSIT +611 916+- 16+0 161 16+0
RM 161- +611 91614 164- 916-: 916++ RM 916+- +611 91614 1648 9164:
+MS 16+1 91614 +611 9161: 9161- 916+: +MS 16+0 91614 +611 16+1 161:
=4P=R 16+- 164- 9161: +611 1610 161 ''=4P=R 161 1648 16+1 +611 1618
n'O+ 1614 916-: 9161- 1610 +611 9161: !on'O+ 16+0 9164: 161: 1618 +611
r'O+ 161- 916++ 916+: 161 9161: +611 <ar'O+ 9161- 91610 916+4 16+4 91610
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A##endi9 . !ase st)dy II& !orridor selection
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A##endi9 5. !ase st)dy II& (acility stat)s for t/e "8 corridors
Ra). Z !" Va&'a2/eH'(;a
C!#cu&&e#t C!#cu&&e#tHe/.e& Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated
C!&&'d!& D'&ect'!# Mete& Messa(e HOV '# I940W HOV '# I943P&!(&a) HOV '# I943=+, 1>
=+, 1> S'(#s =+, 1> =+, 1>=+, 1>
+ +N + + + 1 1 1+S + + + 1 1 1
--N + + + 1 1 1
-S + + + 1 1 1
44W + + + 1 1 +
4E + + + 1 1 +
33W + + + 1 + 1
3E + 4 + 1 + 1
00N + + + + 1 1
0S + 1 + + 1 1
88N + + + 1 1 1
8S + + + 1 1 1
::N + + + 1 1 1
:S + - + 1 1 1
N + - + 1 1 1
S + + + 1 1 1
N + 1 1 1 1 1
S + + 1 1 1 1
+1+1W + + + 1 1 1
+1E + - + 1 1 1
++++W + + 1 1 1 1
++E 1 1 1 1 1 1
+-+-W + + + 1 1 1
+-E + 1 + 1 1 1
+4+4N + + + 1 1 1
+4S + + + 1 1 1
+3+3W + 4 + 1 1 1
+3E + - + 1 1 1
+0+0N + + + 1 1 1
+0S + + + 1 1 1+8
+8N + + + 1 1 1
+8S + + + 1 1 1
+:+:W + + + 1 1 1
+:E + + + 1 1 1
++N + + + 1 1 1
+S + + + 1 1 1
++N + + 1 1 1 1
+S + + 1 1 1 1
-1-1N + + + 1 1 1
-1S + - + 1 1 1
-+-+W + + + 1 1 1
-+E + + + 1 1 1
----N + 1 + 1 1 1
--S + + + 1 1 1
-4 -4N + + + 1 1 1-4S 1 1 + 1 1 1
-3-3N + + 1 1 1 1
-3S 1 + 1 1 1 1
-0-0W + - + 1 1 1
-0E + - + 1 1 1
-8 -8S + + 1 1 1 1
N!te7Ra). Mete&+ '" te c!&&'d!& 's u#de& &a). )ete&'#( c!#t&!/ !te&;'se, Ra). Mete&1
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)+ '" te c!&&'d!& 's ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/ a&ea
!te&;'se, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)1
HOV+ '" te c!&&'d!& as HOV /a#e=s> '# !.e&at'!# !te&;'se, HOV1F!& VMS, te #u)2e& !" VMSs .e& c!&&'d!& .e& d'&ect'!# 's c!u#ted6
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A##endices 821*& !ase st)dy I regression res)lts&
A..e#d'< 87
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee :711 AM 711 AM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s F= -:, 81> -:6+4
M!de/ 8:86+1 -: -0+164114 P&!2 F 161111Res'dua/ :0:0-6303 81 :680083 R9s@ua&ed 16384
Ad R9s@ua&ed 1638-4T!ta/ +3808-1608 : +8461---
R!!t MSE 64838
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 96-0-101: 6110--80 936--8 16111 96-8--0 96-3+108
Ra). Mete& 36-+ 6-888: +:6:3 16111 3641--88 064000:+
VMS 9-6:1480- 6-8811 9+16+83 16111 946--01 9-6+--+4
C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9-6188+ +61+4-:8 9-60+0 16111 94+6-8 9-:6-148
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9486-:0: 61-- 948684+ 16111 946-+:+ 9436443:0
T;!9La#e :604080 +61:4+0 :61-- 16111 0634-4- 68481-
T&ee9La#e 86+41+: +61+-4+ 86108 16111 36+30+- 6++308-
F!u&9La#e 9-6:4+0 6833:3 936-48 16111 9468+4 9+638:08
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9-6+:03 64:+33 944680: 16111 9-6+83 9-860433
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9-6+10 60-4 94-64- 16111 9416:381- 9-:6-481:
I943WB 6-108 64081- +16010 16111 :6318- ++688
I943EB d&!..ed
I940W NB -6810: 63-4: -6:3 16118 6:3:1-+0 36383000
I940W SB d&!..ed
I93WB 9+6844 +6+-:1- 9+860-8 16111 9-163+3 9+863-:83
I93EB 9+363:+:0 +6+8814- 9+-63++ 16111 9+86:0:33 9+-6+818
I93NB 9+-64:- +6+0:: 9+16+1 16111 9+06-8+0 9+168+--
I93SB 9+61:+ +6+::8- 9+06434 16111 9-1641:: 9+06:841-
I933NB 94-6:3+13 6080 946++8 16111 94363-30 94+610:-4
I933SB 94:683+ 68084: 9346:3+ 16111 9460810 9486+8:-8
I983WB 94+63-0 613+1:- 940644: 16111 9446:-10+ 9416+:0
I983EB 9-6+4 6313- 94+6+4 16111 94+6:8-: 9-61:0:4
I933WB 94:6133+- 61-83 9386+01 16111 9468+:0 94063:188
I933EB 94-6:1:4 6:1-403 93+641 16111 9436-08: 94+6+0
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> d&!..ed
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 9-3614:3 6:+:00 9-:643+ 16111 9-06:81: 9--64+3+
TH9:: NB 9-:60+00 63:::0: 94-60- 16111 9-60+44 9-86+:+
TH9:: SB 9-3601--: 6--43- 9-6:3 16111 9-86++340 9--61+
I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 9-+6:+440 60-14 9-06-:+ 16111 9-464:0 9-161-++
I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 9-46-:-- 610- 9-0604 16111 9-0618--3 9-+638+
C!#sta#t 06:8 +64843338-6-: 16111 46+-3-3 63808
4-
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A..e#d'< :7
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee 711 AM 711 AM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 141F= -:, 11-> -36
M!de/ 8:110:6+8 -: -3+8644- P&!2 F 161111
Res'dua/ :0:44-63-+ 11- 36+-40+3 R9s@ua&ed 16383 Ad R9s@ua&ed 1638:
T!ta/ +3-:468- 1- +06133:R!!t MSE 6+:--
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 96-01:33 611343 90+6-3+ 16111 96-81448- 96-3++0+
Ra). Mete& -64-01+ 643104 86-: 16111 +680:3:8 -6-034
VMS 9-6:80-+ 6-0+13 9++633 16111 9463303 9-63833
C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9+363::: +6+-4 9+-630 16111 9+:6+:0 9+-60+88
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9+:6+:4 6:+8+0 9+:604 16111 9+6++8+3 9+06-+4+
T;!9La#e 46000: +6101:8 46:4 16111 +6-0+4 8613041+
T&ee9La#e -633:+0 614-+ -63:+ 161+4 6010-80 364384
F!u&9La#e 9-61:40- 68-:-1+ 9363:0 16111 93614883 9+60:::3+
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 96030 +61---++ 96483 16111 9+16004:- 986038+0
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9++68-13 +61:0-18 9+16+0 16111 9+46:408 960-14
I943WB 644: 6404++ 6+: 16111 860184:0 +16+:4--
I943EB d&!..ed
I940W NB -683:+ 6-3:344 461 1611- +610-1+- 368::3-:
I940W SB d&!..ed
I93WB 906+11-3 6:+048+ 9:6+41 16111 98601-0- 9468::8
I93EB96:34-0+ 6:418:10 9+61+: 1641 9-6+:0088 6804
I93NB d&!..ed
I93SB 9461:-8 6844-- 93683 16111 9364-+++ 9+648:+
I933NB 9+86:31- +61:+88 9+068+8 16111 9+63+0 9+3684
I933SB 9-+64180 +613-1 9-16338 16111 9-46438 9+6-83--
I983WB 9+86+-88 608 9+861+ 16111 9+61108 9+36-304:
I983EB 9+06813 604:+4 9+86:33 16111 9+:6400 9+36103
I933WB 9+6308 +6114:0 9+63+4 16111 9-+6304- 9+:60++
I933EB 9+363:84 +61-+ 9+36+: 16111 9+86011:8 9+-6333
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +:6-+-03 +6+81 +36-8 16111 +3648:- +6348
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 631484-0 +61:13 164:+ 16:+1 9+6:-:- -6043083
TH9:: NB 9868-4 +613:: 98688 16111 96131+ 9364-4:8
TH9:: SB 963040 +61433+ 96+40 16111 9++63-+- 9:63-01:3
I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 986-44-34 +61:4-0 9061 16111 9644:10 936+-3-
I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 96+-833 +6+4-0 96:0- 16111 9+-6+4-: 9:68-0+
C!#sta#t :-6:- 6:3-++3:6-+8 16111 :+6344++ :3643-03
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A..e#d'< 7
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee 3711 PM 0711 PM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 4:F= -:, 1> 3086:4
M!de/ +1-0+4+630 -: 4:8:64+4 P&!2 F 161111
Res'dua/ :3181+6- 1 46+-848+ R9s@ua&ed 16018 Ad R9s@ua&ed 160:4
T!ta/ +:80:4464: 48 +:60::4:R!!t MSE 6++:0
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 96-8+:48: 6113833 904618 16111 96-:+-:-+ 96-0--1+3
Ra). Mete& 464+:8 6-840+1: +36-+ 16111 463+0--8 36334+
VMS 946++040 6-084080 9+-6+04 16111 9468+:14 9-68+-8:
C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9--613:30 +6+84 9+644 16111 9-364:+: 9+68::3
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9-:6438: 6:804 9-6-3 16111 9-6:1: 9-0684
T;!9La#e 46-8:04 +61018- 46++1 1611- +6-11+0 064-:+:+
T&ee9La#e +63-81+ 63810 +633 16+3 9601313-0 4640818-
F!u&9La#e 9364+40: 68-04: 986- 16111 906031484 94618:4
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9+064+3 +61-4: 9+06081 16111 9+:64 9+46-3:
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9-16341- +61::8+: 9+688 16111 9--60013 9+64-083
I943WB :6+:131 64-+14+ :684 16111 06434-:+ 6:033
I943EB d&!..ed
I940W NB 06041440 6+0:3: 8614 16111 46:40-0 :64-03+-
I940W SB d&!..ed
I93WB 986-1-4 6:-3840 9600 16111 9:68--3- 936:+48
I93EB 9+-6--33 6:30-: 9+:6-10 16111 9+36-440 9++648+0-
I93NB d&!..ed
I93SB 9+-6-+1+- 688431+ 9+6314 16111 9+460+18 9+16103
I933NB 9-46-188 +6+130 9-+6113 16111 9-064:384 9-+613-8
I933SB 9-:64830 +6100-84 9-0640 16111 9-634:1+ 9-06-
I983WB 9+631:+ 60083+ 9+6-8+ 16111 9-16-13 9+86044
I983EB 9--63+810 60803 9-464:0 16111 9-36-03 9-16048-8
I933WB 9-6-4 +611++- 9-6-1: 16111 9416-1+33 9-86-:808
I933EB 94+6+48 +61-4+0+ 94+613 16111 9446+-+ 9-61:
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +6+44-3 +6+0:3:3 +614+ 16414 9+61:00- 4638--3
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 9+60++1-: +611+0- 9+648 16+88 94683::: 68-0--4
TH9:: NB 9+-64+14+ +6108+- 9++68- 16111 9+364034 9+16-40+
TH9:: SB 986:3+- +61+0+ 98683 16111 96:4++0 936:0+3+
I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 9+36:4484 +610-:3 9+460:8
16111
9+868+1- 9+-6818-0I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 96433 +6+130+8 9:60+ 16111 9+16038 986-+43
C!#sta#t +6-4+: 6:4+03 +++613+16111
:6::8 -6880:+
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A..e#d'< 7
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee 0711 PM 8711 PM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s F= -:, 81> 3:603
M!de/ +-4-83:6++ -: 30804608 P&!2 F 161111
Res'dua/ +-:8688 81 +6:01 R9s@ua&ed 1681-8
Ad R9s@ua&ed 1681+3T!ta/ -1308-46:: : -416++0R!!t MSE 60:
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 9641+-00 61101++ 9816131 16111 964+++--+ 96-+33
Ra). Mete& 361-- 6-::-4 +:64-3 16111 36-03:8 064384-
VMS 9464-+1: 6-:131:0 9+-6-- 16111 9460++3 9-6:+1-0
C!#cu&&e#t HOV 968-+-33 +6-3+0:- 9:6:3 16111 9+-61001+ 9:6+:3:0
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9+:603113 6:03-4 9+:604 16111 9+63030 9+06038-
T;!9La#e +6+:0-1: +6+1:1 +618- 16- 9633+ 46430400
T&ee9La#e 968-: +614803 916883 1601: 9-6:-1+88 +643408
F!u&9La#e 906+1-48 680:013 9:6:40 16111 98648- 94618:4
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9463-+3- +61-4-4 9464331611+
9063-:-18 9+63+0843
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9604488- +61+-1 96:4: 16111 9++68:-8 9:64383+
I943WB 46+-4 6-810 46+: 1611+ +6+:-80 06101043
I943EB d&!..ed
I940W NB 6834:0 60834:+ 6134 16111 86::304: +160-3-+
I940W SB d&!..ed
I93WB 361:1080 68:-0+1 86104 16111 -6:0-- 0643-
I93EB 9-60++34 68++++ 94683 16111 946311+ 9+6+:38
I93NB ++6414: 688-0: +86-40 16111 64+3 +-688:
I93SB d&!..ed
I933NB 9610+3 +6+30108 9:610 16111 9++6-83- 9861:-:4
I933SB 9+36-0-1 +613:83 9+46813 16111 9+86410:+ 9+-6+3:
I983WB 906141: 63:8133 986-- 16111 9:6:81814 936130000
I983EB 9+16003 6401+0 9++6810 16111 9+-6844 961-0+0+
I933WB 9+36+4+40 +61+::8 9+463 16111 9+86+-83: 9+-6+48-3
I933EB 9+63-030 +61888 9+6+:: 16111 9-+60-143 9+:644108
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +46:+:+ +6-+4- ++630 16111 ++60+00 +8648+
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> ++60-+43 +6++-08+ +16408 16111 643138- +46:1---
TH9:: NB 63++1-8 +61014-0 164+ 1688 9+683:: -638:4
TH9:: SB 06:3080 +61-004 06818 16111 46:4+0 :6:030
I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 9+60+14+3 +61+-+ 9+644 16+8: 946801:44 6841+13:
I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 060+8+80 +6+-:130 363 16111 464188 :6:-0343
C!#sta#t :+6433 68338:+ ++1688:16111
:1611- :-681::
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A..e#d'< +17
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t :711 AM 711 AM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 480F= 4-, 44-> -6-:
M!de/ 088-61040 4- +83634+: P&!2 F 161111
Res'dua/ -+364:08 44- 80638+38 R9s@ua&ed 16:4+0
Ad R9s@ua&ed 16:10:T!ta/ +00863-+ 483 --36108+-3
R!!t MSE 6+-1
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 916:0+43 1614-0- 9--61+ 16111 916+8+8 916880-
Ra). Mete& -643+ -613840 +6348 16+0- 9+618 8680-
VMS 9-6+-0 +648318 9-6+- 161- 9068:8 9164183
H'(;a He/.e& ++634+0 368+- -633 161+0 -6-+03-3 -1688-:
C!#cu&&e#t HOV +36083-0 68--414 +68 161- 9-648 4+60-03
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV -63+443 631:48 16-: 16::3 9+36+-0+ +60+:8
T;!9La#e 36-+-3-8 06104+ 1644 16310 906:-4 +36+03+0
T&ee9La#e 9+684 36::830 916434 16:4- 9++6131- :6:83-10
F!u&9La#e 9+6-:1++ 4608::3+ 916408 16:-- 96-43 06:3++8
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> -168+- 868-880 46+-- 1611- :6800:03 446:-8-
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> ++601-4 860:-43 +6:33 161- 9+63:3:- -36310
I943WB 6133 3611+: -61- 16133 16-+1:8 +068
I943EB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I940W NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I940W SB 9--6+8:- 06+-+4 9364- 16111 94-6-3-8 9+-61+
I93WB 36:433-- 608308 16004 160+ 9+-6++4 -+60-80
I93EB 460-: 6:0-:+ 16333 1680: 9+4644- -+6+1448
I93NB 9861:4- 6-38-0 91680: 160+- 9-36-8+ +-6++03
I93SB 0681110 6+4::+4 168+4 1603 9+-64:3- -460:81-
I933NB 93600:8 680800 9160+3 1681: 9-+6: +-61+
I933SB 1630:3 63+8:+ 16103 160: 9+861 +:61+3:
I983WB -6::+8 6+314 16433 16:4+ 9+46-+30 +6++3
I983EB 361400 684-: 16310 1680 9+06000 -46848
I933WB +6343 6--33 16-48 16+4 9+36-40- +6+--+8
I933EB 46-083- :6:0310 163 1684- 9++684+ +60+343
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +06-+- 6:884 +608- 16++ 9468148 43603--
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> +0683:- 614-3 +63 1610- 916+033 4+633
TH9:: NB +3618:3 :6313 +6- 1618+ 91684:: -64--0
TH9:: SB 9:634-4 68-+33 9168 1648 9-36334 63::-0
I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
Sec!#d U.st&ea) 46+3+ 463+0180 +6+38 16-04 9-614: +1684+
F'&st U.st&ea) 86080+: 46341- +60 1618 916-83 +463+8::
W't'# -6043 460+4:0- 16:4 1638+ 9364+03 60100+4
F'&st d!;#st&ea) 363-1:4 4634443 +6- 16+ 9-6444- ++6+:388
Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) 060-:+:: 4641-8 +684+ 16+13 9+6+40 +-6+40
C!#sta#t 06+-1- 634::+0 :611:16111
3-60--1 :06:+44
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A..e#d'< ++7
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t 711 AM 711 AM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 4:1F= 4+, 44> 446:-
M!de/ 8810361: 4+ -+416:::40 P&!2 F 161111
Res'dua/ -+4006+4 44 846++1+:4 R9s@ua&ed 16:00: Ad R9s@ua&ed 16:444
T!ta/ :316-+ 48 -486+0-- R!!t MSE :638
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 9160+8+ 161-0-+ 9--60-0 16111 91684-3 916041-
Ra). Mete& 9164188 -6-08+0 916+43 163 936--+ 36-118
VMS 946-338+ +6-8:03+ 9-608 161++ 906:4: 916:0+40
H'(;a He/.e& 6-03+ 0648+0 +6:+ 161: 9+64313- +63
C!#cu&&e#t HOV 963-3+ 6+-38:0 9+6+8 16-3: 9-063100 8600:+18
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9360:+0 :63:438 9168+3 1603 9+6-:0 +16++4-
T;!9La#e 6-004 0601-4 +603: 16+-4 9-60+80 -+61-0
T&ee9La#e 061410 06:-0+4 16: 164 986-4104 +86---0
F!u&9La#e 46:814: 36-3 16:: 16348 906:4134 +46-0++
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> +46383-3 06104: -6883 1611 460-43-- -463101:
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 644:4 06+3-++ +6:+ 161: 9+6-10 +6303
I943WB 63:03 -68-40 463:8 1611+ 364+3-- +060:1
I943EB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I940W NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I940W SB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I93WB 9-68184 :64--- 91643- 16:4- 9+618: +-6:-03
I93EB 16-:3+ 61:034 16143 16:4 9+068- +86+8:3
I93NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I93SB 6+:-:: 68++- +610: 16-+ 9:6133- -86-38
I933NB 96:030 :6881: 9+6+3: 16-0- 9-46034 86-4480
I933SB 9+16++4 :63:-40 9+638 16+30 9-068+13 46::0+
I983WB 986+-4:3 :634-48- 916-3 163++ 9-16:344 630::4
I983EB 96:384 :63318 9+6+-3 16-8- 9-368 86:41:03
I933WB 964-- :64+1-0: 9+6+4 16-08 9--6:1-4 86108438
I933EB 9460- :6++08- 91608 160:8 9+:63 +161+14
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> 4-6344:: 6040:38 46 16111 +06834 36--483
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 0610:0:8 :6-:43 1680 163 96-81+3 +64:0-
TH9:: NB 0603++- 86:18+ 16+: 163+3 9:6181- +61--3
TH9:: SB 96:4-: 6+8 9+6180 16-: 9-3608+ :64100
I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> -630: :6:4:4: 1648 16:+4 9+-64:0- +61:41
I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
Sec!#d U.st&ea) 9-6+4+-4 +6:81: 9+6+: 16-48 906883+0 +631+84
F'&st U.st&ea) 16+44::3 +6:++: 161:0 163+ 94640- 4680:1:-
W't'# 93648:30 -614+8 9-61+ 1614: 963:0+ 916-0:-
F'&st d!;#st&ea) 1684+:4 +6+13: 1643 16:-: 9-6-3: 36+-38
Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) +6880108 +640-10 161: 16480 9+633+ 06-:3+
C!#sta#t 846+:4 :60+31+ 6440 16111 36-:0-8 :6+118
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A..e#d'< +-7
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t 3711 PM 0711 PM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 4:
M!de/ 3416430 4- -843688:+3F= 4-, 403> 436-0
P&!2 F 161111
Res'dua/ -:-4-6118- 403 :86-80:+- R9s@ua&ed 16:00
Ad R9s@ua&ed 16:44T!ta/ +++03+6400 48 -68:-3 R!!t MSE 6::1
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 91601-88 161-3+ 9-16++3 16111 91600++ 9163040-
Ra). Mete& 36+1+8-- -6++: +640 16103 91618:00 6-:1:
VMS 906480+ +63--:4 936+:4 16111 96:430 946+43-
H'(;a He/.e& 630430 6-:8880 +61-+ 1641 9:6-3+4 -36:4++
C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9+06:- 8603:1- 9-63++ 161+8 9-68:13 9-61:
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9+-6003- 068:18 9-6+13 16148 9-36-8 916+
T;!9La#e :680:48 86+:-0:+ +6-:3 16-14 936-:4: -16110-8
T&ee9La#e 3681: 06+00 163+ 1631+ 98603:: +86431+8
F!u&9La#e 1648+::+ 36:1+8-8 161:: 164 9638 68131-
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 986-:3+ 6-+1- 916:0 1633 9--681- +1614343
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9-61808: 86:4- 916-8 16:8: 9+06:4 ++688+8
I943WB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I943EB 9-633: 46-4000: 916: 164 96-14 460+400
I940W NB ++6888+ 36881+ -64 161+: -61084- -+6-::-4
I940W SB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I93WB 9161838 36:--+0 9161+0 16 964:140 6-4+34+
I93EB 964+4:0 36038:43 9+6- 1618 9+:6-00 168--84
I93NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I93SB 90640144 364-1- 9+610 16-: 9+06101+ 36433-
I933NB 9+36+++ 8603:4 9-6+00 1614- 9-860 9+6-40-+I933SB 9+:680+ 641018 9-6+0+ 1614- 9436+8 9+604+88
I983WB 96::4+ 064813 9+638 16+34 9-1603 -61-4
I983EB 9+864330 0634- 9-6:0 16114 9-:6+34 90604::
I933WB 9-16+:++ 0603:1: 946848 16111 94+6113 96-8+:
I933EB 9+:68+0 060-43: 946+8- 1611- 9-68: 98684++
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> 8601+80 06:0 +61 16-:4 906-1:0 +64-:
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> +6++33: 8613014 16+3 1603 9+16::34 +46114-:
TH9:: NB 9+6-8- :6+1+3- 916-0: 16:: 9+06:43 +-6+314
TH9:: SB 168-8- 86+--100 16+1- 16+ 9++63+4 +-688830
I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> +161:1: 613338 +6++4 16-88 9:6:+:: -:604
Sec!#d U.st&ea) 9461384 +680+ 9-6148 16134 9:631- 916+-
F'&st U.st&ea) 946-8-4 +610:10 9-6+:3 1614 9:63::3 9164:3:
W't'# 936830 +644+4 9-68-0 1611 9684 9+6-30
F'&st d!;#st&ea) 9+6:31: +6:1018- 9+61-+ 1641 90613++ +68+-03
Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) 916-1:+ +6:14- 916++8 161 946:--+ 464+4-
C!#sta#t :+6---: 64083-8 :68+- 16111 0-6-+8+ 68-40
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A..e#d'< +47
Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t 0711 PM 8711 PM
S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 3-8F= 44, 4-> -8633
M!de/ 03:46+1+ 44 -01613-- P&!2 F 161111
Res'dua/ 44864+ 4- :6304 R9s@ua&ed 16811 Ad R9s@ua&ed 16884
T!ta/ +-4863+ 3-0 -+630:8-8R!!t MSE 6:
Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed
P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
De#s't 9163884 161-48: 9+6:+ 16111 9160+43 9163-14
Ra). Mete& 86031+3 -60-4343 -60- 161+ +60:- ++601+4
VMS 946:0-3 +633480 9-60 161+ 98601- 916+3+0
H'(;a He/.e& 9+608 +36-438 916++- 16++ 9-608+ -864848
C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9+61+:40 +8640:1: 91618- 160 9446+:0 4+6+3+-+
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9861103 +06108 91630- 1680- 948631- --61+-
T;!9La#e +861+ 864--:- -6034 161++ 4683-1 -604+3+
T&ee9La#e ++638-4 8613:3- +68 1610 9163-+-- -4640:8
F!u&9La#e 860+1-8+ 368381++ +631+ 16+8- 9-68-40 +068333
I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9861:043 368:4080 9+64 16+3 9+06-84: 46++410
I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 96:: 06++1+8 9+604 1610- 9-161-83 1618:10+
I943WB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I943EB 9+633:88 4604+ 916313 1688 963-+8 06084-
I940W NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
I940W SB 96:3803 6--88-4 9+6+0 16-4: 9-06-13 863-:-4
I93WB 16318- +063++1- 16180 163 9-64130 4+6--88
I93EB 946-+404 +0633++ 916-1 1640 944600 -:6+0:
I93NB 4468-848 +061308 -6++3 16140 -640:308 8360-:
I93SB 0684848 +06048 16404 16:-3 9-06:- 4:611+:+
I933NB 963:+4 +06401+ 9168+: 1604 94688:8 -16:-013
I933SB 9+46 +0604 9163 164:- 933634 +86881-
I983WB 9-63+1 +0601+4 916+08 16:8 94-618 -61:43
I983EB 963++3 +061:34 91600 160:: 9461:4 -+6-0+
I933WB 9+36088 +36-+4 916: 164- 9346443 +36:31-
I933EB 9+46+88: +36+ 9163 164:: 93-634:- +86+14:
I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> 916+0:+3 +06-+: 9161+ 16- 9416--+0 -61:+
I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 464-18: +06-38 16--- 16-0 9-8603 4464843
TH9:: NB 9+6-++8 +:640 91618 1638 9486-4 446811-
TH9:: SB 86414-0 +061-8 163+ 168:8 9-4648 406:848I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 93613:8+ +16-8 9164:3 16:1 9-06444 +:6-484
I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA
Sec!#d U.st&ea) 9+6:8-3 -6008+-8 9168- 163 986:48: 46-0:++
F'&st U.st&ea) 9461- -63883 9+6033 16+-4 9680- +6131-+
W't'# 9063 -608014 9-64 161-- 9+163+ 91600
F'&st d!;#st&ea) 9-630+4- -648140 9+61-4 1641: 9:6+8-1+ -6-0484
Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) 916-141: -601::+- 9161+ 1640 906+444- 36:-:+:-
C!#sta#t 8-6040 :600+4 611-16111
3:63+3 :641+
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Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis
A##endi9 1& !ase st)dy II regression res)lts&
S!u&ce SS d" MS
M!de/ +46344 : +63::10Res'dua/ -416-33414 1 -600-:114
T!ta/ 486+-88 : 4618++1-:
Nu)2e& !" !2s
F= :, 1> :6:8P&!2 F 161111R9s@ua&ed 164:83
Ad R9s@ua&ed 164-:
R!!t MSE +600
Res#onse +ariable & Incident Rate
Predictor +ariable C!e""'c'e#t Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/
I#te§'!# De#s't +641-3+3 60+3414- -604- 161+4 6-188++ -64-3+8:
Ra). Mete& 9+61:+43 64-38+1- 946411 1611+ 9+6:+8-40 963-8330+
VMS De#s't 36+:-4 +60+043 -6+4 16140 6-0::8: 6131+
H'(;a He/.e& +633034 6380+00 4610 16114 60+0:8 -64+4+
C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W 6-4+001- 6083:43 16-:1 16: 9+6383 +64413
C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 963130: 6804:1- 9+61: 16-1 9-680888 6:::0+
Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 -63818 61+-:14 -6:41 1611 68:14- 36-0+4
C!#sta#t 9+6-44: 6::+-1- 9+6811 16++4 9-6:88+04 6-3+-0
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