kem c. gardner policy institute i · 6 current affairs kem c. gardner policy institute utah...
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Kem C. Gardner Policy InstituteD A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S I U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
In Partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber
KEM C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE
We are an honest broker of
INFORMED RESEARCH
that guides
INFORMED DISCUSSIONS
and leads to
INFORMED DECISIONS™
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S 1
Utah spent most of the past 12 months at the top of the U.S. economic leaderboard. Strong job growth, low unemployment, rising wages, and net in-migration fuel an economy that just keeps on going. Informed observers will recognize Utah’s prosperity,
but also see the nuance, intrigue, challenge, and even wonder in Utah’s economic script.
Utah Informed takes readers behind the curtains and shares fascinating details about Utah and the nation. For example…
n How did South Dakota surpass Utah’s fertility rate? A precipitous rise in teen pregnancies.
n Why aren’t Utah sales tax revenues keeping pace with economic growth? An aging population that spends a greater share of their income on health care.
n Why is Utah’s per capita water consumption so high? We are the second driest state with low water rates.
n Who has the most engaged NBA fans? Utah, of course.
In addition to sharing compelling trends and ideas, in this fourth edition of Utah Informed we give a nod on the cover to our Institute’s home, the Thomas S. Monson Center. The beautiful neoclassical mansion on South Temple Street was home to Enos A. Wall, the first entrepreneur to mine copper in Utah’s Bingham Canyon (today mined by Rio Tinto). Copper, which is known for its conductivity, provides a useful metaphor for the way Utah Informed transmits light to those who study it.
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™. We hope this edition of Utah Informed will help you make wise decisions in 2019.
January 2019
Natalie GochnourDirector, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Taylor RandallDean, David Eccles School of Business
Derek MillerPresident & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber
Thanks for your interest,
2 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
ContentsCurrent Affairs
Words and phrases to know in 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Discoveries in 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Top Google searches in the United States in 2018 . . . . . 7Voter turnout rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Political affiliations of U.S. Congress and
Utah Legislature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Recession Watch Duration of United States economic expansions . . . . . 10Federal budget balance as a percent of GDP . . . . . . . . . 11A history of yield curve inversion as a
recession warning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Extra yield on long over short-dated treasuries . . . . . . 13Animal Spirits Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Utah CEOutlook Confidence Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Utah Economy Industry-adjusted state-to-U.S. employment
growth ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Unemployment and other measures of labor
underutilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Hachman Index of economic diversity, 2017 . . . . . . . . . 18 Average annual employment growth in the
life sciences industry, 2012 to 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Annual employment growth and decline in
Utah’s counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Construction jobs as a percent of all Utah jobs . . . . . . . 21Percent of Utah families with income below poverty
status by educational attainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22The nation’s largest commuting zones with most
intergenerational mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Utah System of Higher Education graduation
rates, 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Female share of the workforce in STEM and
other occupations, Fall 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Public elementary and secondary schools
pupil-teacher ratios, FY 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Utah public elementary and secondary school
pupil-teacher ratios, Fall 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Total miles driven per driving-age population . . . . . . . 28Utah Jazz player salaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S 3
Economic Development Qualified opportunity zones in the West . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Qualified opportunity zones in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31High-growth company density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Startup density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Where the state can help rural Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Economic Development Logic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Utah Jazz 3-point shots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Public Finance Vicious tax cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Utah sales tax base as a percent of
personal income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Composition of state funds for higher education
in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Number of services, by category, subject to
state sales and use taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Sales tax rates and total tax burden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41State government employment per 1,000
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42State of Utah budget stress test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Energy and Environment Mountain states’ average annual precipitation,
2013–2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Frequency of floods and flash floods in Utah . . . . . . . . . 45Residential water bill for 30,000 gallons of
water across the state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Mountain states’ domestic water consumption . . . . . . 47Energy industry employment as a percent of
total employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48Utah energy production and consumption . . . . . . . . . . 49Renewable energy electricity generation in Utah . . . . 50Salt Lake County average days per week in each
air quality category . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Health Health ranking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Life expectancy at birth by Utah small area,
2012–2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53County uninsured rates, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54Average annual growth in Utah’s family income
and health insurance costs, 2006-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . 55Percent of adult Utahns in fair or poor health
by income, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Percent of kindergarteners with an exemption
from one or more vaccines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
4 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
ContentsReal Estate and Construction
States with most growth in detached single-family home permits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Ratio of the median value of owner-occupied housing units to median household income, 2017 . . . . . . . . . 59
Composition of building permits for residential units by housing type, 2000–2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Wasatch Front commerical real estate under construction by property type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Utah median monthly mortgage payment and 30-year mortgage rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Mortgage debt balance per capita, 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Growth in mortgage debt balance per capita,
2016-2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Travel and Tourism Visitor spending as a percent of state GDP, 2017 . . . . . 65Private leisure and hospitality sector jobs in
Utah’s counties, 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66County Transient Room Tax revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67International visitor spending by country,
2016-2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68Utah national park and monument indicators . . . . . . . 69Utah skier/snowboarder place of origin and stats . . . . 70
Utah Demographics Utah population components of change . . . . . . . . . . . . 71Total fertility rate, 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Birth rates by age of mother, 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73Utah’s foreign born population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Salt Lake City population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Median age in Utah and the United States . . . . . . . . . . . 76Cumulative change in Utah persons per
household since 1920 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Cities with the most- and least-engaged NBA fans . . . 78Utah Jazz Facebook followers by country . . . . . . . . . . . 79
The whole point . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Editor-in-chief: Juliette Tennert
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Current Affairs 5
Words and phrases to know in 2019
n 2.12 – Utah’s current total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children who would be born per woman based on the current schedule of age-specific fertility rates: At 2.12, Utah’s TFR is at an all-time low and approaching the replacement rate.
n CA·VU – ceiling and visibility unlimited, a military term indicating an obstruction-free sky, coined by President George H. Bush to mean a clear and visible future where people can “easily identify the objectives and threats” in their paths: Seeking CAVU.
n con· sum· able ser· vice – service for which the identification of the place of consumption is straightforward: The State of Utah does not currently tax many consumable services.
n em· pa· thy – the ability to identify, understand, and share the feelings and perspectives of others: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella believes that empathy is essential for innovation.
n fourth in· dus· tri· al rev· o· lu· tion – mobile internet, Internet of Things, additive manufacturing, and other innovations that will change our lives: The 4th Industrial Revolution will require policy innovations.
n in· land port – crossroads of the west fulfilled: Utah’s inland port will provide custom clearance for Chinese goods.
n juu·l ing – a slang term for the recreational use of a leading brand of electronic cigarettes in the U.S., JUUL: The American Academy of Pediatricians warns that juuling is on the rise, with devastating consequences.
nmis· in· for· ma· tion – incorrect or misleading information: The distribution of misinformation—and its close cousin, deliberate disinformation—jeopardizes our ability to make informed decisions. Russian troll farms and others propagate falsehoods on Facebook, Twitter, other social media, and by other means. These untruths imperil our ability to prosper.
n strike team – a mission-driven, multi-disciplinary, and well-resourced enterprise: The the Utah Coal Country Strike Team will raise incomes in Carbon and Emery counties.
n YIM·BY – yes in my backyard, a movement that lays the groundwork for more housing construction for people of all income levels: Can YIMBY overcome NIMBY?
6 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Discoveries in 2018
n Plague – The sample of the oldest-known strain of the pneumonic plague, perhaps the world’s first major pandemic, was found in remains in a 5,000-year-old tomb in Sweden.
n Christmas Salamander – A newly-discovered aquatic salamander has Christmas-tree-shaped growths from its head, which it uses to breathe underwater.
n Saw Wasp – A species of wasp with a saw along its back was discovered. Scientists speculate it uses it to cut its way out of whatever other creature its parents laid its egg in.
n Hunchback Shrimp – A round-back and shell-less shrimp discovered in the Antarctic was named Epimeria quasimodo after the title character of “The Hunchback of Notre Dame.”
n Extraterrestrial Communications – Repeating radio burst deep in space flashes sporadically, making some researchers wonder if it’s a black hole or an advanced civilization.
n Ancient Wealth – An excavation in where Tenea, Greece once thrived revealed pottery, coins, and marble-clad homes, showing ancient Teneans were far wealthier than previously thought.
n The Thunderclap – A fossil of the world’s largest-known animal were uncovered. The “Ledumahadi mafube” or “giant thunderclap at dawn” weighed about 26,000 pounds and lived in Argentina 200 million years ago.
n Ancient Art – A 73,000-year-old drawing was found in a stone in South Africa. The unintelligible but deliberate lines are now called the earliest drawing ever found.
n Shellless Turtle – A 228 million-year-old fossil revealed turtles once lived without a shell; scientists are now studying how they evolved.
n Alzheimers – San Francisco scientists discovered a gene that causes people with it to be far more susceptible to Alzheimer’s.
n Blindness Cure – Using a patch of stem cells over the eye, scientists returned the sight of two blind patients.
nMartian Photos – NASA’s InSight, a newly landed Mars explorer, sent back clear images of Mars’ landscape, perhaps the next step in unlocking the Red Planet’s past.
n Exomoon – Astronomers discovered what may be the first known exomoon (moon outside the solar system).
n Gene Editing – A Chinese scientist claimed to have produced “gene-edited babies,” which would be the world’s first.
n Uterus Donor Success – A successful birth resulted from a uterus donated by a deceased woman for the first time.
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Current Affairs 7
Signs of our times
Top Google searches in the United States in 2018
Source: Google
All Searches1) World Cup2) Hurricane Florence3) Mac Miller4) Kate Spade5) Anthony Bourdain6) Black Panther7) Mega Millions Results8) Stan Lee9) Demi Lovato10) Election Results
News1) World Cup2) Hurricane Florence3) Mega Millions4) Election Results5) Hurricane Michael6) Kavanaugh Confirmation7) Florida Shooting8) Royal Wedding9) Olympic Medal Count10) Government Shutdown
People1) Demi Lovato2) Meghan Markle3) Brett Kavanaugh4) Logan Paul5) Khloé Kardashian6) Eminem7) Urban Meyer8) Ariana Grande9) Rick Ross10) Cardi B
What is...?1) What is Bitcoin?2) What is racketeering?3) What is DACA?4) What is a government shutdown?5) What is Good Friday?6) What is Prince Harry’s last name?7) What is Fortnite?8) What is a duck boat?9) What is a Yanny Laurel?10) What is a nationalist?
8 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
A new high! Utah voter turnout exceeds US in 2018 midterm elections
Voter turnout ratesCounted ballots as a percent of total voting-eligible population
Source: United States Elections Project
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Utah United States
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Current Affairs 9
*Party division totals are based on November Election Day results. The actual party division of a particular Congress often changes due to the death or resignation of a Member, contested elections, or changes in Member party affiliations.Sources: House.gov; Senate.gov Source: le.utah.gov
Midterm outcomes
Political affiliations of incoming U.S. Congress and Utah Legislature
116th United States Congress 63rd Utah Legislature
100 29435 75
Senate• 53 Republicans
Up from 51 in 115th Congress
• 45 Democrats Down from 47 in 115th Congress
• 2 Independents
House• 199 Republicans
Down from 241 in 115th Congress
• 235 Democrats Up from 194 in 115th Congress
1 Disputed North Carolina 9th district
Senate• 23 Republicans
Down from 24 in 62nd Legislature
• 6 Democrats Up from 5 in 62nd Legislature
House• 59 Republicans
Down from 62 in 62nd Legislature
• 16 Democrats Up from 13 in 62nd Legislature
10 Recession Watch Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Slated for the longest expansion on record
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Economic Research and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data
Duration of United States economic expansionsLengh of expansion and average annual job growth
113 months (1.5%)
73 months (0.9%)
120 months (2.0%)
92 months (2.8%)
58 months (3.5%)
36 months (3.4%)
106 months (3.2%)
24 months (3.6%)
39 months (2.5%)
45 months (4.3%)
37 months (5.1%)
July 2009
November 2001
March 1991
December 1982
March 1975
November 1970
February 1961
April 1958
May 1954
October 1949
October 1945
Expa
nsio
n St
art
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Recession Watch 11
Economy expands, federal budget deteriorates
Federal budget balance as a percent of GDP
Note: Balance is the 4-quarter moving sum; Q4 2018 and beyond are forecast.Source: Wells Fargo Securities
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000Year
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Periods of Recession
12 Recession Watch Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Yielding the yield
A history of yield curve inversion as a recession warningSince pre-recession peak in 2005
Note: Inversion date is when the 3-month Treasury yield rises above the 10-year yield.Source: Refinitiv, as published in the Wall Street Journal, December 6, 2018
- 9.3%
24.3%
- 15.3%
7.7%
0.9%
12.2%
37.1%
13.2%
False Alarm
False Alarm
12
18
11
14
30
22
January 12, 1966
September 8, 1966
December 19, 1968
February 12, 1973
July 4, 1978
September 1, 1980
May 29, 1989
September 10, 1998
February 20, 2006
- 21.6% 9
Date of inversion
S&P 500 performance over next 12 months
Months torecession
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Recession Watch 13
Inversion season
Extra yield on long over short-dated treasuries
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun
76
Jun
78
Jun
80
Jun
82
Jun
84
Jun
86
Jun
88
Jun
90
Jun
92
Jun
94
Jun
96
Jun
98
Jun
00
Jun
02
Jun
04
Jun
06
Jun
08
Jun
10
Jun
12
Jun
14
Jun
16
Jun
18
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
14 Recession Watch Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Do you believe in spirits?
Animal Spirits Index
Note: Index includes S&P 500 index, Conference Board consumer confidence index, yield spread, VIX index, and economic policy uncertainty index; the Animal Spirits Index seeks to “shed light on economic agents’ expectations about the near-term economic outlook.”Source: Wells Fargo Securities
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997Year
2003 2009 2015
Periods of Recession
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Recession Watch 15
Utah CEOs less optimistic
Utah CEOutlook Confidence IndexWhat is your expectation for the economy six months from now?
Source: Salt Lake Chamber CEOutlook composite score
66.07
59.21
61.67
58.75
61.36 61.43
55.47
50.0050
55
60
65
70
17-Q1 17-Q2 17-Q3 17-Q4 18-Q1 18-Q2 18-Q3 18-Q4
Index
16 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Holding on to #1 for job growth in current expansion
TX1.49
CA1.46
MT0.70
NM0.23
AZ1.15
NV1.14
CO1.32
WY0.51
OR1.03
UT1.57
MN0.72ID
1.07
KS0.53
NE0.65
SD0.70
ND1.21
OK0.53
MO0.53
WA1.26
GA1.23
IL0.64
IA0.45
WI0.55
AR0.65
AL0.66
NC1.15
MS0.67
NY1.01
LA0.58
PA0.65
MI0.69
OH0.60
KY0.69
VA0.84
IN0.68
ME0.41
SC1.27
FL 1.44
TN1.02
WV0.00
AK0.34
HI 0.91
< 0.50
0.50 - 0.79
0.80 - 0.99
1.00 - 1.29
1.30 +
DE 0.93
RI 0.71
VT 0.54NH 0.65MA 1.16
NJ 0.75MD 0.83
C T 0.50
Note: Ratio of actual employment growth to the employment growth the state would have experienced if its industries grew at the same rate as those of the rest of the nation. Numbers above 1 indicate outperforming the nation.Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Industry-adjusted state-to-U.S. employment growth ratiosGrowth since end of recession, 2009-2017
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 17
2.6%3.2%
4.6%4.0%
0.5%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%1.9%
2.4%
2.8%
2.9%
5.0%
6.2%
8.3%
7.8%
Q4 2007 Q3 2018 Q4 2007 Q3 2018
Involuntary Part-time Rate
Discouraged/Marginally Attached Worker Unemployment Rate
Headline Unemployment Rate
Utah United States
Unemployment limbo
Unemployment and other measures of labor underutilization Current and previous economic peak
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics data
18 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Strength in diversity
Hachman Index of Economic Diversity, 2017
Note: Value of 100 would mean that state’s economic activity is distributed exactly like the nation’s; more diverse economies have a higher index score.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP data
TX76.3
CA93.1
MT80.1
NM62.5
AZ95.7
NV64.7
CO93.6
WY25.1
OR89.1
FL 92.0
UT96.9
MN94.6ID
79.2
KS90.3
NE69.5
SD65.2
ND51.1
OK57.7
MO96.8
WA87.7
IN76.0
GA95.2
IL95.6
IA74.8
WI92.3
AR88.6
AL91.1
NC92.5
MS86.8
NY79.9
LA85.6
PA95.5
MI92.2
OH93.9
KY90.4
VA89.1
ME91.1
SC90.9
TN91.9
WV54.2
AK31.9
HI 71.8
< 65.0
65.0 - 79.9
80.0 - 89.9
90.0 - 94.9
95.0 +
DE 53.5
RI 87.3
VT 90.9NH 95.0MA 90.0
NJ 93.4MD 87.4
C T 91.9
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 19
Life sciences boom (bloom?) in Utah
Average annual employment change in the life sciences industry, 2012 to 201720 states with most life sciences jobs
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data
TX2.4%
CA1.9%
AZ2.2%
CO3.0%
UT5.0%
MN2.0%
WA2.2%
GA4.4%
IL1.0%
WI1.0%
NC1.9%
NY0.3%
PA0.1%
MI1.6%
OH0.9%
FL 2.2%
TN1.3%
IN-0.2%
decline0.0% - 1.4%1.5% - 2.9%3.0% +Not a top 20 state
MA 2.4%
NJ -0.7%
20 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Job Tetris, growth and decline in Utah’s counties
Annual employment growth and decline in Utah’s counties
Note: 2018 through second quarter.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data
BeaverBox Elder
CacheCarbon
DaggettDavis
DuchesneEmery
GarfieldGrand
IronJuabKane
MillardMorgan
PiuteRich
Salt LakeSan JuanSanpete
SevierSummit
TooeleUintah
UtahWasatch
WashingtonWayneWeber
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Growth Decline
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 21
Construction employment back to pre-bubble levels
Construction jobs as a percent of all Utah jobs
Note: e = estimateSource: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey data
8.3%
5.4%
6.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
e
20-year average = 6.5%
22 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
The importance of educational attainment, a family perspective
Percent of Utah families with income below poverty status by educational attainment of householder
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 5-year 2013-2017 American Community Survey data
4.9%
15.0%
6.7%4.9%
2.8%
All families Less than high school graduate
High school graduate(includes equivalency)
Some college,Associates degree
Bachelor's degree or higher
All families Less than high school graduate
High school graduate(includes equivalency)
Some college,Associates degree
Bachelor's degree or higher
25.5%
46.6%
29.9%
24.2%
10.4%12.5%
22.4%
12.1% 11.6%6.9%
Female householder, no spouse present
Married-couple families
Male householder, no spouse present
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 23
Families rising
The nation’s largest commuting zones with most intergenerational mobilityAverage income percentile at age 30 of those whose parent’s income was in the 25th percentile
Source: Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, and Emmanuel Saez “Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States”
40.841.1
41.341.3
41.542.0
42.242.3
42.442.7
42.843.243.2
43.443.4
43.844.1
44.244.2
44.344.4
44.644.7
45.246.2
Philadelphia
San Antonio
Fresno
PortlandMiami
Bu�alo
Denver
Fort Worth
Bridgeport
Sacramento
Houston
Washington DC
Seattle
Los Angeles
Providence
New York
Newark
Manchester
Minneapolis
San Diego
San FranciscoBoston
San Jose
Pittsburgh
Salt Lake City
24 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Women finish what they start (and improve higher education graduation rates)
Utah System of Higher Education (USHE) graduation rates, 2017
Note: Graduation rates are measured by the percentage of first-time, full-time students who graduate within 150% of the published time for the program (six years for a four-year baccalaureate degree and three years for an associate degree). Source: Utah System of Higher Education
42%
67%
50%
33%
47% 48%
34%30%
22%
All USHESchools
Universityof Utah
Utah StateUniversity
Weber StateUniversity
SouthernUtah
University
SnowCollege
Dixie StateUniversity
Utah ValleyUniversity
Salt LakeCommunity
College
All USHESchools
Universityof Utah
Utah StateUniversity
Weber StateUniversity
SouthernUtah
University
SnowCollege
Dixie StateUniversity
Utah ValleyUniversity
Salt LakeCommunity
College
All Students
Female
46%
68%
53%
40%
51%58%
38%34%
25%
36%
67%
44%
25%
39% 36%28% 25%
19%
Male
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 25
The STEM gap
Female share of the workforce in STEM and other occupations, 2017
Note: STEM = science, technology, engineering, and mathematicsSource: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data
20.6%
29.3%
46.0%48.2%
Utah United States
STEM Occupations Other Occupations
26 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Larger classroom sizes in the West
Utah public elementary and secondary school pupil-teacher ratios, Fall 2015United States = 16.0
Note: The pupil-teacher ratio includes teachers for students with disabilities and other special teachers, while these teachers are generally excluded from class size calculations; ratios reflect totals reported by states and differ from totals reported for schools or school districts; data are most recent available for national comparisons.Source: U.S. Department of Education National Center for Education Statistics Common Core of Data
TX15.3
CA23.9
MT14.0
NM15.5
AZ23.1
NV20.6
CO17.4
WY12.4
OR20.9
UT22.9
MN15.4ID
18.7
KS12.4
NE13.6
SD13.9
ND11.8
OK16.3
MO13.6
WA18.8
GA15.5
IL15.7
IA14.2
WI14.9
AR13.7
AL18.2
NC15.5
MS15.1
NY13.2
LA12.3
PA14.2
MI18.2
OH16.9
KY16.4
VA14.2
IN18.1
SC15.2
FL 15.3
TN15.1
ME12.2
WV14.1
AK16.9
HI 15.5
< 13.0
13.0 - 14.9
15.0 - 16.9
17.0 - 19.9
20.0 +
DC 12.4 DE 15.0
RI 13.4
VT 10.5NH 12.4MA 13.4
NJ 12.3MD 14.8
C T 12.3
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 27
23.023.0
23.123.223.3
23.624.0
24.624.8
25.2
Jordan
Box Elder
Nebo
Juab
Uintah
Cache
Davis
Alpine
Morgan
Provo
Districts with highest ratios
10.210.2
12.413.9
14.2
15.915.9
16.617.2
17.6
Daggett
Piute
Tintic
Wayne
Rich
Gar�eld
Grand
Park City
San Juan
Kane
Districts with lowest ratios
Utah public elementary and secondary school pupil-teacher ratios, FY 2017Utah average = 21.8
Note: District average = 19.8; Charter school average = 22.1Source: Utah State Board of Education
Provo has the highest student to teacher ratio in the state
QAMOA W A R D W I N N E R
Why student-teacher ratios matter
Higher amounts of engagement and retention
More individualized attention
Accommodation of different learning styles
Submitted by David Eccles School of Business QAMO (Quantitative Analysis of Markets & Organiztions) students Jessie Rabe and
Jonathan White.
Jessie Rabe Jonathan White
28 Utah Economy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Utahns behind the wheel
Total miles driven per driving-age population
Note: Driving age population aged 15 and above.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Federal Highway Administration and U.S. Census Bureau data
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
United States Utah
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Economy 29
Jazzonomics
Utah Jazz player salariesAnnual and cumulative since 1985
Source: Utah Jazz
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
85‐8
686
‐87
87‐8
888
‐89
89‐9
090
‐91
91‐9
292
‐93
93‐9
494
‐95
95‐9
696
‐97
97‐9
898
‐99
99‐0
000
‐01
01‐0
202
‐03
03‐0
404
‐05
05‐0
606
‐07
07‐0
808
‐09
09‐1
010
‐11
11‐1
212
‐13
13‐1
414
‐15
15‐1
616
‐17
17‐1
8
BillionsMill
ions
Historical Player Salaries
Annual Player Salaries Cumulative Player Salary
30 Economic Development Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Opportunity Zones (format as c hec klis t bullet points )P art of the T ax C uts and J obs A c t of 2017E c onomic ally-dis tres s ed c ommunities des ignated by the G overnor of each s tate for preferential tax treatment to s pur new inves tmentInves tors can defer c apital gains until s ale or exc hange, through 202610% exc lus ion of deferred gains for inves tments held longer than 5 years 15% exc lus ion of deferred gains for inves tments held longer than 7 years100% exc lus ion of deferred gains for inves tments held longer than 10 years
Land of opportunity
Qualified opportunity zones in the West
Source: U.S. Department of Treasury Community Development Financial Institutions Fund Opportunity Zones Resources and Internal Revenue Service Opportunity Zones Frequently Asked Questions
Opportunity Zones
Part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
Economically-distressed communities designated by the governor of each state for preferential tax treatment to spur new investment. Investors can defer capital gains until sale or exchange, through 2026
10% exclusion of deferred gains for investments held longer than 5 years
15% exclusion of deferred gains for investments held longer than 7 years
100% exclusion of deferred gains for investments held longer than 10 years
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Economic Development 31
TOOELE
SAN JUAN
MILLARD
KANE
JUAB
IRON
EMERY
BOX ELDER
UINTAH
GARFIELD
GRAND
UTAH
WAYNEBEAVER
DUCHESNE
SEVIER
RICH
SUMMIT
SANPETE
WASHINGTON
CARBON
CACHE
PIUTE
WASATCH
DAVIS
WEBER
DAGGETT
SALT LAKE
MORGAN
Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, USGS, Intermap, INCREMENT P,NRCan, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri Korea,
UTAH
TOOELE
DAVIS
SALT LAKE
WEBER
MORGAN
How will Utah leverage opportunity zones?
Qualified opportunity zones in Utah
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics data
32 Economic Development Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Look at us grow!
Source: Kauffman Foundation 2017 Kauffman Index of Growth Entrepreneurship State Trends
TX82.8
CA88.9
MT26.2
NM16.2
NV45.3
CO96.9
WY12.9
OR70.0
AZ101.6
MN73.7ID
38.3
KS61.9
NE42.6
SD42.0
ND39.9
OK30.7
MO47.4
WA87.9
UT174.8
IL76.6
IA32.7
WI39.9
AR17.9
AL66.0
NC69.9
MS19.7
NY67.1
LA40.9
GA124.5
PA64.2
MI57.3
OH85.1IN
55.1
SC67.7
TN71.2
KY30.8
ME28.7
VA208.3
WV31.7
AK7.3
HI 26.8FL 77.0
< 50.0
50.0 - 74.9
75.0 - 99.9
100.0 +
DE 76.2
RI 19.2
VT 12.6NH 67.2MA 100.0
NJ 73.4MD 102.8
C T 37.9
High-growth company densityNumber of private businesses with at least $2 million in annual revenue reaching three years of 20 percent annual revenue
growth, normalized by total business population
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Economic Development 33
Start me up
Startup densityStartups per 1,000 firm population
Note: Startup businesses here are defined as firms less than one-year-old employing at least one person besides the owner.Source: Kauffman Foundation 2017 Kauffman Index of Startup Activity State Trends
TX90.9
CA89.6
MT68.5
NM65.2
AZ85.8
CO88.2
WY70.9
OR77.0
NV108.4 UT
91.0
MN64.2ID
80.2
KS64.8
NE61.7
SD62.6
ND84.7
OK72.9
MO95.5
WA81.5
GA82.4
IL69.1
IA54.7
WI59.1
AR66.6
AL63.4
NC74.7
MS64.1
NY83.3
LA64.8
PA60.6
MI64.4
OH57.4IN
61.6
SC73.3
TN69.3
KY76.3
VA73.7
ME62.8
WV51.1
AK69.9
HI 62.7FL 98.7
< 70.070.0 - 79.980.0 - 89.990.0 +
DE 77.0
RI 60.0
VT 58.0NH 58.3MA 66.9
NJ 76.1MD 68.6
C T 58.9
34 Economic Development Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Rural economic development incentives - time for an update?
Where the state can help rural UtahItems identified in rural county economic development plans
Incentive Update
18
Infrastructure
11
Economic Development
Capacity Building
8
Transportation
7
Higher Education Funding & Alligning
6
Workforce Development
6
Housing Quality/
Affordability
3
State Job Relocation
3
Energy/ Natural
Resources
2
Recruitment/ Investment
7
Regulation/ Policy
7
Inter-Government & Business
Relationships
7
Note: Circle size and number identify count of plans mentioning each item.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of rural county economic development plans submitted to the Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Development
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Economic Development 35
Some considerations...
Economic Development Logic Model
Intial/Baseline Conditions Inputs
Outcomes
Outputs(Program Activities)
Capacity Outcomes(Shorter-term)
Realized Outcomes(Longer-term)
Economic Conditions/
Business Cycle (regional,
national, global)
Industry/Cluster Conditions,
Competitiveness & Levels of Definition/
Development
Existing Regional Networks & Innovation Ecosystems
Existing Workforce Skills
& Knowledge
Portfolio of Programs
Facilities & Equipment
Product, Production Processes, & Business
Capacities
Regional-Level:
• Establishment Growth/Survival
• Job Growth
• Earnings/Wage Growth
• Revenue/Sales Growth
• Opportunities/Equity
• Increased Share of Cluster Activity
EDA FundingEvents,
Networking & Referrals
Markets & Business Networks
Other FundingR&D &
Commercialization Support
Innovation, Technology Transfer, & Commercialization
Client/Participant Resources
Financing Support
Financing & Investment
Mentoring, Coaching, & Training
Human Capital & Workforce
Planning & Institutional
Development
Organizational Capacity
Source: U.S. Economic Development Administration
36 Economic Development Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take
Utah Jazz 3-point shotsAttempts and makes
Source: Basketballreference.com
185
2,425
59
887
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
AttemptsMakes Quin Synder
Coach
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Public Finance 37
Can the cycle be broken?
Vicious tax cycle
Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
Tax Base GetsNarrower and
Narrower
Pressure to Increase Taxes
Insu�cient Tax Revenue
IncreasedPressure for
Exemptions and Deductions
38 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Utah’s narrowing sales tax base
Utah sales tax base as a percent of personal income
Note: 2018 and beyond are forecasted.Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
67%
42%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Public Finance 39
No more fiscal wiggle room...
Composition of state funds for higher education in UtahEducation Fund and General Fund contributions
Note: Fiscal years; 2019 and 2020 figures are based on Governor Herbert’s budget recommendations.Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
94%
93%
66%
65%
53%
72%
97%
86%
65%
66%
34%
9% 61%
60%
69%
65%
42%
46%
38%
23%
32%
27%
4% 3%
6% 7%
34%
35%
47%
28%
3%
14%
35%
34%
66%
91%
39%
40%
31%
35%
58% 54
%
62%
77%
68%
73%
96%
97%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Education Fund General Fund
40 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Considerations for broadening the base
Number of services, by category, subject to state sales and use taxesMaximum, median, and Utah counts
Note: Total services equal to maximum taxed in all categories but Admissions/Amusements (15 services) and Other Services (47 services); the most recent counts for AZ, LA, MD, MA, NM, and OK are from 2007; all other counts are from 2017.Source: Federation of Tax Administrators Sales Taxation of Services Survey; Medians calculated by Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
HI, WANM, AR
16
HI, WANM, DE
20
HI, WANM, DE
9
DE19
WA44
HI, DE34
Utah7
Utah8 Utah
6
Utah0 Utah
5
Utah11
Utah0
Utah15
Utah12
Util
ities
Pers
onal
Serv
ices
Busi
ness
Serv
ices
Com
pute
rSe
rvic
es
Onl
ine
Serv
ices
Adm
issi
ons/
Am
usem
ents
Prof
essi
onal
Serv
ices
Fabr
icat
ion,
Repa
ir &
Inst
alla
tion
Oth
erSe
rvic
es
HI, WA, NM, SD, TX
8
WA, DE,SD, CT,TX, OH,
PA8
HI, NM,WI14
10
57
1
4
10
0
68
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Public Finance 41
It’s all relative
Sales tax rates and total tax burden
Note: Tax rates are as of 2018 and tax burden estimates as of 2015, the most recent comparable data available; severance tax collections are excluded from tax burden analysis.Source: Tax Foundation and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Survey of State and Local Finances data and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data
Combined State & Local Sales Tax Rates
All State and Local Taxes as a Percent of Personal Income
CA8.6%
MTno sales tax
NM7.8%
AZ8.4%
NV8.1%
CO7.5%
WY5.4%
ORno sales tax
UT6.8%
ID6.0%
WA9.2%
CA11.1%
MT9.1%
NM9.8%
AZ9.0%
NV9.8%
CO9.0%
WY8.7%
OR10.2%
UT9.3%
ID9.1%
WA9.2%
Combined State and Local Sales Tax Rates
All State and Local Taxes as a Percent of Personal Income
42 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Gaining efficiencies in state government
State government employment per 1,000 population
Note: Excludes higher education.Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
8.9
6.6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
State of Utah budget stress test
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Public Finance 43
State of Utah budget stress test
State budget could withstand stagflation and moderate recessions; another Great Recession would be more challengingHypothetical budget gaps vs. reserve availability as a percent of state fund appropriations
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst data
Year 1: 3.0% Year 1: 5.6%
Year 1: - 0.2%
Year 2: 10.2%
Year 2: 14.5%
Year 3: 10.6%
Year 3: 14.7%Year 4: 9.4%
Year 4: 13.1%
Year 5: 6.2%
Year 5: 9.3%
4.1%
17.1%
19.0%
8.0%
2.7%
Total: 39.4%
Total: 57.3%
Year 2: 5.9%
Year 3: 6.7%
Year 4: 3.0%
Year 5: - 3.0%
Total: 12.5%
Total: 50.9%
Value at Risk, Adverse Scenario
Value at Risk,Severely Adverse
ScenarioValue at Risk,
Stag�ation Scenario
Reserves
Very Di�cult Di�cult Somewhat Di�cult Moderately Easy Easy
Reserves Accessibility
cumulative: 48.2%
cumulative: 40.2%
cumulative: 21.2%
44 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Pray for rain...
Mountain states’ average annual precipitation, 2013–2017Inches per year
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
10.2
11.9
13.8
14.8
17.4
19.1
19.4
24.1
Nevada
Arizona
Utah
New Mexico
Wyoming
Colorado
Montana
Idaho
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Energy and Environment 45
...but not all at once
Frequency of floods and flash floods in Utah
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Flash Floods
Floods
46 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Variation in water pricing
Residential water bill for 30,000 gallons of water across the state
Note: Base rates plus the incremental costs for each 1,000 gallons. Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
Rank City/District $ Rank City/District $ Rank City/District $ Rank City/District $1 Park City $347.68 31 Wendover $84.32 61 Clinton $63.00 91 Panguitch $46.09 2 Cedar Hills $172.76 32 Gunnison $82.40 62 West Point $62.35 92 Murray $46.05 3 Washington Terrace $151.30 33 Sandy $80.94 63 St. George $61.52 93 Perry $44.50 4 Pleasant Grove $143.46 34 West Bountiful $80.16 64 Logan $61.50 94 Eagle Mountain $44.00 5 American Fork $139.80 35 West Jordan $79.37 65 Taylorsville-Bennion ID $61.41 95 Clearfield $43.29 6 Coalville $130.00 36 Midvale Area 3 $78.91 66 La Verkin $61.30 96 Delta $42.10 7 Kane County $121.25 37 Roosevelt $78.00 67 Vineyard $60.84 97 Provo - Winter $41.39 8 Draper $119.50 38 Lindon $77.47 68 Spanish Fork $59.20 98 Springville $41.25 9 Riverton $119.05 39 South Salt Lake $77.25 69 Sunset $58.50 99 Brigham City $40.96 10 Morgan $119.00 40 Elwood $77.00 70 Provo - Summer $58.49 100 Huntington $40.80 11 Toquerville $116.21 41 Magna $76.87 71 Salt Lake City $58.11 101 Orem $40.46 12 North Ogden $115.85 42 Ivins $76.55 72 Mona $58.00 102 Beaver $40.20 13 Saratoga Springs $115.60 43 Herriman $76.19 73 Cedar City $56.20 103 Castle Dale $40.00 14 Wellington $110.33 44 Monticello $76.10 74 Blanding $56.10 104 Layton $39.07 15 Pleasant View $108.25 45 Manila $75.25 75 Payson $55.14 105 Nibley $39.00 16 Fruit Heights $105.10 46 Richmond $75.00 76 Kanab $55.00 106 Tooele $37.50 17 Kaysville $100.05 47 South Ogden $74.87 77 Heber City $54.61 107 Wellsville $36.50 18 Salem $98.50 48 Aurora $72.80 78 North Logan $54.21 108 Hyde Park $36.00 19 Alpine $97.00 49 Midvale Area 2 $72.55 79 Bona Vista Water $54.17 109 Moab $36.00 20 Kearns ID $96.55 50 Fairview $72.50 80 Smithfield $53.40 110 Riverdale $33.85 21 Ogden $94.55 51 Hurricane $70.00 81 Orangeville $51.35 111 Richfield $33.50 22 Bluffdale $93.00 52 Bountiful $68.60 82 Tremonton $51.25 112 Nephi $33.00 23 Farmington $89.55 53 Mount Pleasant $67.50 83 Highland $49.86 113 Grantsville $31.10 24 South Jordan $88.50 54 Centerville $67.00 84 Lehi $48.95 114 Lewiston $30.94 25 Elk Ridge $88.25 55 Santaquin $66.38 85 Fillmore $48.50 115 Randolph $30.00 26 South Weber $87.10 56 Granger-Hunter ID $66.01 86 Francis $47.50 116 Enoch $29.00 27 Syracuse $87.00 57 North Salt Lake $64.70 87 Roy $47.05 117 Oakley $29.00 28 Vernal $85.90 58 Woods Cross $63.60 88 Milford $47.00 118 Manti $28.50 29 Mapleton $85.50 59 Washington $63.17 89 Ephraim $46.62 119 Hyrum $25.60 30 Price $84.42 60 Midvale Area 1 $63.13 90 Ferron $46.25
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Energy and Environment 47
Dry but thirsty
Mountain states’ domestic water consumptionGallons per capita per day
Source: USGS Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015
81
106
123
126
145
156
169
184
New Mexico
Montana
Colorado
Nevada
Arizona
Wyoming
Utah
Idaho
48 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Top 20 for energy industry jobs
Energy industry employment as a percent of total employment, 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
TX6.62%
CA4.43%
MT5.22%
ID
CO4.79%
OR3.85%
WY14.38%
NM5.56%
KS4.81%
AZ
NVNE
SD
MN
ND8.86%
WA
UT4.22%
GA
IA
FL
AR
AL4.19%
OK6.57%
MOKY
MS
TN
LA6.92%
IL
WI
VA
IN
NC
SC3.88%
NY
PA
MI4.23%
OH
ME
WV6.32%
AK6.74%
HI
14.5% 3.5%
DC DE 4.19%
RI
VT 5.56%NH MA 4.31%
NJ MD
C T
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Energy and Environment 49
Energy is one of our state’s many exports
Utah energy production and consumptionGigawatt hours
Note: e = estimateSource: Utah Geological Survey
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
e
Net generation
Consumption
50 Energy and Environment Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Solar gains momentum
Renewable energy electricity generation in Utah, 2017Percent of total electricity generation
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
United States, Renewable Sources
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%Other
Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic
Wind
Geothermal
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Energy and Environment 51
Best air quality is in the fall
Salt Lake County average days per week in each air quality categoryNovember 2013 to October 2018
Note: Unhealthy air days are characterized by high ozone levels in the summer and high levels of particulate matter in the winter. “Unhealthy” category includes the less severe “unhealthy for sensitive groups” category. Index is based on ozone, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide content.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data
3.9 3.9
1.4
5.1
2.1
3.0
4.2
1.80.7
0.031.4
0.1
Winter(Dec-Feb)
Spring(Mar-May)
Summer(Jun-Aug)
Fall(Sep-Nov)
Unhealthy Moderate Good
52 Health Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Utah 4th healthiest in the nation
Health ranking
Source: United Health Foundation 2017 America’s Health Rankings Annual Report
TX34
CA17
MT22
NM36
AZ31
NV37
CO7
WY26
OR20
UT4
MN6ID
14
KS25
NE13
SD24
ND18
OK43
MO40
WA9
GA41
IL27
IA15
WI21
AR48
AL47
NC33
MS50
NY10
LA49
PA28
MI35
OH39IN
38
SC44
FL 32
TN45
KY42
VA19
ME23
WV46
AK29
HI 2
41-5031-4021-3011-201-10
DE 30
RI 11
VT 3NH 8MA 1
NJ 12MD 16
C T 5
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Health 53
Another way to look at quality of life
Life expectancy at birth by Utah small area, 2012–2016
Note: Life expectancy can be used to gauge the overall health of a community.Source: Utah Department of Health, Center for Health Data and Informatics
Summit County81.5
Logan 81.8
Tooele County77.8
San Juan County
79.1
Juab, Millard & Sanpete Counties
79.1
Grand County
79.2
Sevier, Piute & Wayne Counties77.8
Beaver, Gar�eld, Kane & Iron Counties
(except Cedar City)77.3
Daggett, Duchesne & Uintah Counties
77.5
Box Elder County (except Brigham City) - 80.5
Cedar City78.5
Rich & Cache Counties (except Logan) - 80.7
Washington County (except St George) - 81.0
St George81.4
Brigham City75.4
73.2 to 76.0 (Shortest Life)
76.8 to 78.6
79.1 to 81.2
81.3 to 84.5 (Longest Life)
County Boundary
Red Bottom 4 areas with the shortest life expectancy
Green Top 4 areas with the longest life expectancy
Carbon & Emery
Counties74.7
Farmington/
Avenues
SLC - Glendale
84.1
Ogden - Downtown
Centerville
Foothill/
84.5
South Salt Lake
73.2
74.4
74.8
83.1
Provo-North/
BYU82.7
UofU
N
54 Health Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Variation in Utah’s uninsured rates pre-Medicaid expansion
County uninsured rates, 2016Percent of population aged 65 and younger without health insurance
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Health Insurance Estimates
Tooele8.1
Millard13.1
San Juan17.1
Kane8.6
Iron11.9
Juab10.2
Box Elder8.4
Emery8.7
Uintah12.9
Gar �eld14.7
Grand13.9
Utah7.9
Beaver12 Wayne
13.6
Duchesne13.7
Sevier10.6
Rich10.2
Carbon9.4
Washington11.6
Cache9.3
Sanpete12.7
Piute12.8
Salt Lake10.9
6.5 - 8.1
8.4 - 9.7
10.2 - 11.6
11.9 - 13.9
14.7 - 17.1
Davis 6.7
Weber 9.6Morgan
6.5
Wasatch9.5
Summit 20.5 Daggett 9.7
State Rate: 9.7
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Health 55
Harder to keep up
Average annual growth in Utah’s family income and health insurance costs, 2006-2016
Note: Income is median family income; premiums and deductibles represent average employee contributions and deductibles for private-sector employees enrolled in single and family coverage; data are inflation-adjusted (2016).Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey data
0% 2%1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Prem
ium
s
1.7%
2.4%
Ded
uctib
les
6.4%
Family Income
Family Plan
Individual Plan
Family Plan
Individual Plan
3.9%
0.4%
56 Health Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Income and health, a strong correlation
Percent of adult Utahns in fair or poor health by income, 2016
Note: Each square represents three percent of the adult population (age 18+) with fair of poor general health; data is age-adjusted.Source: Utah Department of Health Office of Public Health Assessment Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
27.7% <$25,000
Percent of population Income
14.2% $25,000 - $49,999
7.2% $50,000 - $74,999
7.0% $75,000 +
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Health 57
Vaccination worries
Percent of kindergarteners with an exemption from one or more vaccines 2016–17 school year
Note: Non-medical exemptions in Utah rose from 3.6 percent in 2009–2010 to 4.9 percent in 2016–2017. Medical exemptions have remained stable at 0.2 percent. Sample designs vary by state. Medical and non-medical exemptions may not be mutually exclusive, and some children may have both exemptions.Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases
0.1%
5.1%
6.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
MS
WV AL
LA IN NY
CA DC KY DE RI VA MA TN AR
MD IA KS NC TX NJ
OK NE SC SD CT N
M PA OH FL GA HI
NH
ND M
IM
T VT NV
WA
ME
AZ UT WI
ID OR
AK
58 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Utah leads single-family housing recovery
States with most growth in detached single-family home permitsSince pre-recession peak in 2005
Note: Most recent data is for 2017.Source: U.S. Census Bureau
34%
35%
37%
40%
44%
44%
49%
56%
57%
61%
68%
72%
Nevada
Arizona
California
Florida
Georgia
Oregon
US
Washington
Idaho
Colorado
Texas
Utah
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Real Estate and Construction 59
Growth in Utah home values far outpacing income growth
Ratio of the median value of owner-occupied housing units to median household income, 2017United States = 3.5
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 1-year American Community Survey data
TX2.9
CA7.1
MT4.3
AZ3.9
NV4.5
NM3.7
CO5.0
OR5.3
WY3.5
UT4.0
ID4.0
KS2.7
NE2.6
SD3.0
MN3.3
OK2.7
ND3.1
WA4.8
MO2.9
GA3.1
IL3.1
IA2.5
WI3.0
FL 4.1
AR2.8
AL2.9
NC3.2
NY4.8
MS2.8
LA3.5
PA3.1
MI2.8
KY2.9
OH2.7
VA3.8
IN2.6
ME3.4
SC3.2
TN3.3
WV2.8
AK3.7
HI 7.9
< 2.9
2.9 - 3.4
3.5 - 3.8
3.9 - 4.6
4.7 +
DC 7.4DE 4.0
RI 4.0
VT 3.9NH 3.6MA 5.0
NJ 4.2MD 3.9
C T 3.7
60 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Apartment boom in Salt Lake City
Composition of building permits for residential units by housing type, 2000–2017Share of residential building permits
Balance of Wasatch Front = Davis, Utah, and Weber counties; Ring counties = Juab, Morgan, Tooele, and Summit countiesNote: Other includes group quarters, mobile homes, manufactured homes, cabins, accessory dwelling units, and any other dwelling unit type not covered by apartments, condominiums, townhomes, duplexes, or detached single-family homes; regions are mutually exclusive.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Ivory-Boyer Construction Database data
75%
21%14%
6% 9%
11%
59% 71% 74%
69%
14%19%
15%8%
13%
0% 1% 1% 2%
9%
Salt Lake City Balance of Salt LakeCounty
Balance of WasatchFront
Ring Counties Balance of the State
Apartments Single-Family Detached Condo/Townhome/Duplex Other
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Real Estate and Construction 61
Retail dives, apartments soar
Wasatch Front commerical real estate under construction by property typePercent of total stock
Note: 2018 as of the third quarter.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Insitute analysis of CoStar Group Inc. data
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Apartment O�ce Industrial Retail
62 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Double whammy of rising interest rates and home prices
Utah median monthly mortgage payment and 30-year mortgage rates
Note: Median monthly payment is based on median sales price for single-family homes.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com, Freddie Mac, and Mortgage Bankers Association data
$1,2
25
$1,1
22
$1,0
81
$1,0
09
$1,0
34
$1,1
50
$1,4
25
$1,6
02
$1,5
39
$1,3
16
$1,1
91
$1,0
58
$1,0
14
$1,2
15
$1,2
72
$1,3
12
$1,3
73
$1,5
69
$1,9
29
8.14%
5.85% 5.79%
6.39%
6.04%
3.66%3.59%
4.86%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Monthly Payment 30-year Mortgage Rate
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Real Estate and Construction 63
Utah mortgage debt among highest in nation
Mortgage debt balance per capita, 2017States with highest and lowest rankings
Note: Population is ages 18 years and older with an Equifax credit file; District of Columbia mortgage debt per capita = $62,080.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2017
Top Ten Bottom Ten
$41,790
$41,580
$41,830
$45,760
$47,110
$47,370
$50,900
$50,900
$54,640
$54,680
CT
AK
UT
MA
WA
VA
CO
MD
CA
HI
$15,230
$15,240
$18,200
$19,830
$20,010
$20,820
$21,000
$21,500
$22,810
$23,130
MS
WV
AR
OK
KY
LA
AL
OH
IN
MI
64 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Utah’s growth in mortgage debt burden second in nation
Growth in mortgage debt balance per capita, 2016-2017United States = 4.3%
Note: Population is ages 18 years and older with an Equifax credit file; District of Columbia mortgage debt per capita = $62,080.Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2017
TX5.3%
CA5.3%
MT4.1%
NM1.2%
AZ6.9%
NV6.4%
CO8.2%
WY5.0%
OR5.0%
UT7.5%
MN2.5%ID
5.4%
KS3.9%
NE5.1%
SD4.3%
ND4.5%
OK5.7%
MO2.9%
WA5.5%
GA4.5%
IL1.5%
IA2.3%
WI1.3%
AR3.5%
AL3.4%
NC4.4%
MS4.5%
NY2.8%
PA2.8%OH
2.6%IN3.7%
LA4.4%
TN6.5%
MI3.6%
KY3.1%
VA3.4%
ME1.5%
SC4.8%
WV2.6%
AK1.6%
HI 4.4%FL 4.3%
< 2.0%
2.0% - 3.9%
4.0% - 4.9%
5.0% - 5.9%
6.0% +
DC 4.7%DE 3.8%
RI 3.3%
VT 1.7%NH 1.7%MA 4.2%
NJ 2.8%MD 3.7%
C T 1.3%
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Travel and Tourism 65
What happens in Vegas happens elsewhere too
Visitor spending as a percent of state GDP, 2017
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Travel Association and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data
TX4.4%
CA5.0%
MT9.6%
NM7.6%
AZ6.2%
CO5.8%
WY9.0%
OR5.4%
NV26.6% UT
5.4%
MN4.2%ID
6.5%
KS4.8%
NE4.2%
SD5.7%
ND5.7%
OK4.3%
MO4.8%
WA3.7%
GA5.3%
IL4.8%
IA4.7%
WI3.6%
AR5.8%
AL4.6%
NC4.6%
MS6.0%
NY5.0%
PA3.5%OH
3.1%IN3.3%
LA5.4%
TN5.8%
MI3.9%
KY4.7%
VA5.0%
ME6.7%
SC6.5%
WV5.6%
AK5.5%
HIFL 10.0%
28.7%
< 4.0%
4.0% - 4.9%
5.0% - 6.9%
7.0% - 9.9%
10.0% +
DE 3.0%
RI 3.6%
VT 7.9%NH 5.2%MA 4.2%
NJ 3.7%MD 4.4%
C T 4.3%
66 Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Travel and tourism drives over a third of all jobs in six counties
Private leisure and hospitality sector jobs in Utah’s counties, 2017Percent of total private employment and top ten for job growth
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Department of Workforce Services data
Growth in Private Leisure and Hospitality Employment, Top Ten Counties, 2013-2017San Juan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.7%Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6%Iron . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.0%Grand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.1%Wasatch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.7%Box Elder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4%Sanpete . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.3%Millard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1%Juab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7%Davis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.8%
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Travel and Tourism 67
Tax exporting
County Transient Room Tax revenueAnnual change and top ten collectors
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data
County Transient Room Tax Revenue, Top Ten Counties, FY 2017 ($ millions)Salt Lake . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18.3Summit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $9.5Washington . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7.1Grand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4.7Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3.4Kane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2.5Garfield . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1.9Wasatch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1.9Davis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1.6Weber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1.6
68 Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
O Canada
International visitor spending by country, 2016-2017$ millions and year-over-year change
Source: Tourism Economics
+31.5%
+10.6%
+13.2%
+11.0%
+7.8%
-5.2%
+4.0%
-0.2%
-0.5%
+9.9%
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220
Taiwan
Brazil
South Korea
Japan
Australia
United Kingdom
Germany
France
China
Canada
2016
2017
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Travel and Tourism 69
Utah’s national parks: efficiency, understaffing, or both?
Utah national park and monument indicatorsJobs and visits
Note: e = estimateSource: National Park Services and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
e
Mill
ions
of V
isito
rs
National Park Jobs
National Park & Monument VisitsNational Park Jobs
70 Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Taking advantage of the greatest snow on earth
Utah skier/snowboarder place of origin and stats
Source: RRC Associates
New York 4%
Florida 4%
Texas 5%
International 7%
California 10%
All other states33%
Utah37%
Average age: 40.3 years
Length of stay: 5.8 nights
Stay in commercial lodging: 67%
Averagelodging rate: $431/night
First time visit to Utah: 33%
New York 4%
Florida 4%
Texas 5%
International 7%
California 10%
All other states33%
Utah37%
Average age: 40.3 years
Length of stay: 5.8 nights
Stay in commercial lodging: 67%
Averagelodging rate: $431/night
First time visit to Utah: 33%
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Demographics 71
Utah natural increase continues descent
Utah population components of change
Source: Utah Population Committee (2010-2018) and Utah Population Estimates Committee (2000-2009)
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
(20,000)
(10,000)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Net MigrationTotal Change Natural Increase (births less deaths)
72 Utah Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
TX1.92
CA1.69
MT1.80
NM1.76
AZ1.79
NV1.77
CO1.63
WY1.86
OR1.56
UT2.12
MN1.87ID
2.01
KS1.93
NE2.06
SD2.23
ND2.06
OK1.90
MO1.81
WA1.71
GA1.79
IL1.73
IA1.94
WI1.79
AR1.91
AL1.82
NC1.77
MS1.85
NY1.65
LA1.88
PA1.69
MI1.76
OH1.83IN
1.87
SC1.73
FL 1.71
TN1.80
KY1.90
VA1.75
ME1.58
WV1.73 DE 1.75
RI 1.51
VT 1.52NH 1.51MA 1.51
NJ 1.75
DC1.42
MD 1.75
C T 1.59
AK2.02
HI 1.89
<1.60
1.60 - 1.73
1.74 - 1.83
1.84 - 1.94
>1.94
Oh mother, where art thou?
Total fertility rate, 2017Births per woman
Note: The total fertility rate is the expected number of births per woman based on the current schedule of age-specific birth rates.Source: National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System Births: Final Data for 2017
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Demographics 73
22.6
87.7
147.5
125.5
50.9
10.415.2
81.8
140.3
121.4
52.5
11.9
0.9
18.8
71.0
98.0 100.3
52.3
11.6
0.9
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49*
South Dakota Utah United States
South Dakota’s fertility rate driven, in part, by teen births
Birth rates by age of mother, 2017Births per 1,000 women
*South Dakota does not meet standards of reliability; fewer than 20 births.Source: National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System Births: Final Data for 2017
74 Utah Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
More new Utahns arriving from Asia than any other region
Utah’s foreign born populationRecent arrivals by region of birth
Note: 1990-2000 entrance from 2000 Census, through March 2000; 2000 and later entrance from 2007-2011 5-Year American Community Survey Estimates; 2010 and later entrance from 2012-2016 5-Year American Community Survey Estimates.Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census and American Community Survey 2011 and 2016 5-Year Estimates
16.5%
20.2%
44.5%
64.9%
62.9%
34.3%
10.9%
7.4%
9.5%
2.0%
4.6%
5.3%
2.9%
2.2%
3.3%
2.7%
2.7%
3.1%
Entered1990-2000
Entered after 2000
Enteredafter 2010
Asia Latin America Europe Africa Northern America Oceania
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Demographics 75
Utah’s capital city population reaches a milestone; still shrinking in proportion to county
Salt Lake City populaton
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Division Estimates
72.9%
17.7%
189,454
159,936
200,544
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Share of Salt Lake County
Salt Lake City Population
76 Utah Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Median-aged Utahns still can’t run for president, getting closer
Median age in Utah and the United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
19.2
22.9
30.1
25.1
28.1
23.1
38.1
31.0
0
40
30
20
10
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 2017
United States
Utah
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Demographics 77
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Householding Behavior Contribution Population Age Composition Contribution
From Leave it to Beaver to Modern Family
Cumulative change in Utah persons per household since 1920Persons per household was 4.5 in 1920, 3.1 at last census
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of IPUMS USA: Version 8.0 data
78 Utah Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
Cities with the most- and least-engaged NBA fans.
Most engaged fans Least engaged fans
Source: WalletHub ranking based on ticket prices, stadium accessibility, fan engagement, and NBA and NCAA team performance.
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Utah Demographics 79
It’s a small world
Rank Country Followers
1 USA 475,791
2 Philippines 475,570
3 India 193,418
4 Nigeria 57,780
5 Brazil 56,186
6 Mexico 51,362
7 Indonesia 40,491
8 Australia 30,855
9 Taiwan 30,836
10 France 30,405
11 Turkey 22,642
12 Kenya 19,133
13 Italy 17,703
14 Canada 14,944
15 Domican Republic 14,229
16 Mongolia 12,872
Rank Country Followers
17 Spain 11,582
18 Argentina 11,271
19 Greece 10,582
20 Venezuela 10,128
21 Thailand 9,208
22 Poland 8,213
23 UK 8,152
24 Colombia 8,077
25 Malaysia 8,032
26 Germany 7,437
27 Serbia 6,660
28 Chile 5,945
29 Portugal 5,872
30 Puerto Rico 5,775
31 Peru 5,713
32 New Zealand 5,209
Utah Jazz Facebook followers by country
Source: Facebook
80 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019
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K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S
Leadership Team
Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and DirectorJennifer Robinson, Associate DirectorShelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance ManagerColleen Larson, Administrative ManagerDianne Meppen, Director of Survey ResearchPamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic ResearchJuliette Tennert, Director of Economic and
Public Policy ResearchNicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow
Faculty Advisors
Matt Burbank, Faculty AdvisorAdam Meirowitz, Faculty Advisor
Senior Advisors
Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal AnalystGary Cornia, Marriott School of BusinessTheresa Foxley, EDCUtahDan Griffiths, Tanner LLCRoger Hendrix, Hendrix ConsultingJoel Kotkin, Chapman UniversityDarin Mellott, CBREChris Redgrave, Zions BankBud Scruggs, Cynosure GroupWesley Smith, Western Governors University
Staff
Samantha Ball, Research AssociateMallory Bateman, Research Analyst DJ Benway, Research AnalystMarin Christensen, Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-ResidenceJohn C. Downen, Senior Managing EconomistDejan Eskic, Senior Research AnalystEmily Harris, Demographic AnalystMichael T. Hogue, Senior Research StatisticianMike Hollingshaus, DemographerThomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Meredith King, Research Coordinator Jennifer Leaver, Research AnalystAngela J. Oh, Senior Managing Economist Levi Pace, Senior Research EconomistJoshua Spolsdoff, Research Economist Paul Springer, Senior Graphic DesignerLaura Summers, Senior Health Care AnalystNatalie Young, Research Analyst
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Thomas S. Monson Center I 411 E. South Temple Street
Salt Lake City, UT 84111 I 801-585-5618 I gardner.utah.edu
D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S U N I V E R S I T Y O F U T A H
ConvenersMichael O. LeavittMitt Romney
BoardScott Anderson, Co-ChairGail Miller, Co-ChairDoug AndersonDeborah BayleCynthia A. BergRoger BoyerWilford ClydeSophia M. DiCaroCameron DiehlLisa EcclesSpencer P. Eccles
Matt EyringKem C. GardnerChristian GardnerNatalie GochnourClark IvoryRon JibsonMike S. LeavittKimberly Gardner MartinDerek MillerAnn MillnerSterling Nielsen Cristina OrtegaJason PerryTaylor RandallJill Remington LoveBrad RencherJosh Romney
Charles W. SorensonJames Lee SorensonVicki VarelaRuth V. WatkinsTed Wilson
Ex Officio (invited)Governor Gary HerbertSpeaker Brad WilsonSenate President Stuart AdamsRepresentative Brian KingSenator Karen MayneMayor of Salt Lake CountyMayor Jackie Biskupski
Partners in the Community The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
Legacy PartnersThe Gardner CompanyIntermountain HealthcareLarry H. & Gail Miller Family FoundationMountain America Credit UnionMitt and Ann RomneySalt Lake City CorporationSalt Lake CountyUniversity of Utah HealthUtah Governor’s Office of
Economic DevelopmentZions Bank
Executive PartnersMark and Karen BouchardThe Boyer CompanyIvory HomesSalt Lake ChamberSorenson Impact CenterWCF Insurance
Sustaining PartnersClyde CompaniesDominion EnergyStaker Parson Companies
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board
Salt Lake Chamber Board of DirectorsSteve Starks, ChairLinda Wardell, Vice ChairKim AbramsMatt BaldwinLaura BoguschMarc CameronWilford ClydeJohn DahlstromSpencer P. Eccles
Theresa FoxleyVal HaleKay HallGary HoogeveenClark D. IvoryGreg M. JohnsonPat JonesFred P. LampropoulosBrent Low
Dean W. LuikartDr. Donna L. MilavetzDerek MillerScott ParsonRay D. PickupGary B. PorterCraig Wagstaff