ken cureton june 2014 cureton@usc

Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:Systems Architecting and the Political ProcessWhats Next for Manned Space Programs?

University of Southern CaliforniaViterbi School of EngineeringSystems Architecture & Engineering (SAE)Ken CuretonFebruary 2015

[email protected]

SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPTPAGE *Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: Whats Next for Manned Space Programs?

WHATS NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE?LOSS OF CHALLENGER IN 1987 GREATLY INFLUENCED THE PROGRAMS FUTUREGRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT SHUTTLE DESIGN WAS AGINGMORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND LAUNCH THAN EVERLOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED THE SEARCH FOR COST SAVINGSMANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED, FUNDED, AND THEN CANCELLED

SAE 550 CLASS 05PAGE *SAE 550 LECTURE #5LAUNCH SYSTEMS (Shuttle, ALS, NLS)

MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM:CONSTELLATION: NASA AUTHORIZATION ACT OF 2010 BROUGHT PROGRAM TO AN END ON OCTOBER 11, 2010CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY THE U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICYFINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT: JULY 8, 2011RELIANT ON RUSSIANS THEREAFTER


RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY MEANS USED BY ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATIONBAIKONUR IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR MANNED MISSIONS TO THE ISSMAY 2014: RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE SUPPORT TO ISS AFTER 2020NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIESDEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF RESTORING US TRANSPORT TO ISS BY 2017


RUSSIAN SOYUZ MANNED LAUNCH SYSTEM


SOYUZ-TM EXTERIORCREW CAPACITY: THREECREW RETURN MODULE


SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR


CHINA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT PLANFIRST MANNED SPACE VEHICLE: 10/15/2003SPACE LABORATORY: 2015 20 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3SPACE STATION: 2018+

INDIA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE


COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE?NASAS $30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM 2 COMPANIES: BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION SPACE SYSTEMS & SPACEXPOTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS FROM UNITED STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISSAPRIL 2014: SPACEX COMMERCIAL DRAGON RESUPPLY SHIP DOCKS WITH ISS



X-38(B-52 DROP TOPARAFOILLANDING)


NASA X-51A "WAVERIDERMAY 27 2010: ~ 200 seconds, up to ~ Mach 5 and ~ 70,000 feet MAY 3 2013: 240 seconds, Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet


EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) ARIANE 5 LAUNCH VEHICLEUNMANNED-- BUT COULD BE EXPANDED


RUSSIAN PROTON LAUNCH VEHICLE


NEW ANGARA RUSSIAN MANNED LAUNCH VEHICLESANNOUNCED BY VLADIMIR PUTIN JULY OF 2013SCHEDULED FOR 2018-2020


CHINESE LONG MARCH 2F VEHICLESHENZHOU CAPSULE LAUCHERCHINESE LONG MARCH 7 VEHICLE IN DEVELOPMENT


INDIAN POLAR SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE PSLVUNMANNED-- BUT PROTOTYPE FOR FUTURE MANNED BOOSTERS


PREDICTION FOR THE FUTUREIN YOUR PRESENTERS HUMBLE (AND EVER SO UNBIASED!) OPINIONU.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM):CONTINUE IN UNMANNED SPACE, BUT WITH INCREASING FOREIGN COMPETITIONCONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR UNMANNED SYSTEMS, WITH SOME COMMERCIALIZATION OF MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT FUNDINGCUT-OFF USE of RUSSIAN LAUNCHERS BUT SPECTER OF COMPETITION FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE RESURGENCE OF NATIONAL PRIDESOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020


PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)FACT OF LIFE #3: A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIALU.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY WHEN STIMULATED BY FEAR OF FOREIGN DOMINATIONOFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIES OUT OF FEARINCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO PERCEIVED THREAT OF RUSSIANS AND CHINESE AFTER 2020AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ NO LONGER A HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY


PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)FACT OF LIFE #5: BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION OFTEN NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTIONPOLITICAL VALUE OF MANNED SPACE WILL CHANGE BASED ON TWO FACTORS:PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATIONNEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBSNASA FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AERONAUTICS AND UNMANNED SPACE EXPLORATIONSOME MANNED SPACE FOR SPACE STATION SUPPORTDOD (AIR FORCE) TO ADD CAPABILITY FOR MANNED SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONSDISPOSABLE SPACE PLANE ON TOP OF AN EXISTING MILITARY BOOSTERALSO CONTINUING EFFORT IN SATELLITES

**Dragon is launched by a Space X launcher that has had 10 successful unmanned trips and returns from ISF (was SSF) US wants to keep ISF until 2024, Russia will stop using ISF in 2020. 11/30/2014*X 38 is a wingless crew return vehicle that jettisoned it engine on the return trip. Its first test flight was in 1999. The program was cancelled in Feb, 2014. A steerable parachute was to aid the landing, which used landing skids rather than wheels. NASA Dryden Research Center. 11302014**Waverider in size is more like a large tactical missile than a crewed air vehicle*Proposed*For thirteen years, between August 1996 and August 2009, 75 consecutive successful launches were conducted. There were several failures during that time too. On October 15 2003 a Long March launched Chinas first astronaut into space. On September 24 2007 a member of the Long March family launched a Chinese lunar orbiting space craft. Source Wikipedia, 11302014.

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ken cureton june 2014 cureton@usc

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