kenyan's take on icc ocampo list of 6

8/8/2019 Kenyan's Take on ICC Ocampo List of 6

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Infotrak Harris PollKenyans take on the ICC and the Ocampo list

of 6

Prepared by

Infotrak Research & Consulting

A member of Harris Interactive Global NetworkDecember 2010



The Methodology



The Methodology

A sample of 1500 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adultpopulation of 19,000,000 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2.5 at 95% level of

confidence. The survey was conducted in all regions of Kenya

The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size. Thesample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age andgender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was

further split into both urban and rural

Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was doneso as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given anequal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention wasgiven to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya

Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews

The survey was conducted between 15th - 16th December, 2010



Sample Distribution

Province Region Sampling points

Nairobi Nairobi All constituencies

Coast

S. W. CoastMvita, Likoni

Matuga, Changamwe

North CoastTana river

Garsen

Malindi , and bura

Eastern

Central EasternManyatta, runyenjes, Mwingi North

N. Imenti, central imenti, South Imenti

Lower EasternKitui Central, Mwala,Yatta

Machakos Town, Kathiani, Kangundo

Central

NyeriNyeri Town, kieni, Mathira

Kirinyaga Central, Othaya, MukuruweiniThikaMurangaKiambu

Kiambaa, kabete , githunguri,gatanga, juja

Kangema, kangema,mathioya,

Rift Valley

North RiftEldoret North and south and east

Tinderet, emgwen, aldai, Turkana North & Central

South RiftBureti

Narok North, ainamoi, chepalungu

Central RiftNakuru Town, Rongai, Molo & Subukia

Baringo Central

Western

KakamegaLurambi

Butere, saboti

Bungomalugari

Funyula, bumula, kanduyi,kimilili,webuye

Lugari Kanduyi

Nyanza

Nyanza CentralKisumu Town East west, Nyando,ksm rural

Rangwe,Bonchari

South Nyanzakuria

Nyaribari Chache, masaba

kuria, ndhiwa, South Mugirango

North Eastern Garrissa Ijaara Dujis, Lagdera and Fafi



The Key Findings



Awareness on the names of the

Hague 6.

Are you aware of the names that the ICC prosecutor, Louis MorenoOcampo has recently released of persons who bear the greatest

responsibility for the post election violence?



87% of Kenyans reported awareness of the names that ICC prosecutor Louis MorenoOcampo mentioned as bearing the greatest responsibility for post election violence

Are you aware of the names that ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo has just released as people who bear the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence?

More urban based (92%) than rural based(81%) population mentioned awareness of

the ICC list

Males (89%) seem to be more aware of the names in the ICC list than their femalecounterparts (84%)

Base 1500

92%81%

89%84%

4% 7% 5% 5%5%13%

6% 11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Urban Rural Male Female

LOCATION GENDER

Yes No Not sure

Yes, 87%

No, 5%

Not sure,8%



Awareness of the names mentioned by ICC prosecutor Louis MorenoOcampo (By Region)


The regions that recorded high awareness of the names that ICC prosecutor LouisMoreno Ocampo released were:

Nairobi (97%), Western (95%), Nyanza (93%) , R. Valley (92%) & Central (90%)

North eastern recorded the lowest awareness levels at 33% whilst Coast and Eastern hadan awareness noting of 75% and 80% respectively

Base 1500

97%

75%

33%

80%

90% 92%95% 93%

2%7%

17%

7% 7%2% 3% 3%1%

18%

50%

13%

3%6%

3% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Nairobi Coast N. Eastern Eastern Central R. Valley Western Nyanza

Yes No Not sure



The Youth seem to be very keen and are keeping tabs on the ICC process.Majority of those aware were under 35 years of age


Awareness levels of the names on the ICC list decreases as you move across theage groups, with those between the age group 18 – 24 years recording thehighest awareness level at 89%, while those in 55 + years age group recording the lowest awareness level of the names on the ICC list at 80%

Base 1500

89%88% 86% 82% 80%

5% 5% 4% 3%

11%7% 7%

10%15%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18-24 Yrs 25-34 Yrs 35 - 44 Yrs 45 - 54 Yrs 55+ Yrs

Yes No Not sure



Mention of the names of the

Hague 6.

If you are aware of the names of the Hague 6, could you kindly mention them?



Majority of Kenyans are aware of the names mentioned by the ICC prosecutor asbearing the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence

• Eighty six percent of Kenyans indicated

that they are aware of the names in thelist released by the ICC prosecutor LouisMoreno Ocampo

• Interestingly, approximately two in tenKenyans were either aware of only onename or none at all

Yes, 86%

No, 5% Not sure, 9%

Correct mentions of those in the listIncidence level

%

Mentioned all 41

Mentioned 4-5 names 26


Mentioned only 1 name 13

Mentioned none correctly 3

Are you aware of the names that ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo has just released as people who bear the

greatest responsibility for the post-election violence

Base 1500

Base 1425



Correctly mentioned names by region

Region

Correctly mentioned names

Mentioned none

correctly

Mentioned only 1

name

Mentioned 2-3

names

Mentioned 4-5

namesMentioned all

Coast 3% 40% 16% 19% 22%

Western 11% 5% 31% 18% 35%

North Eastern 17% 6% 38% 32% 8%

Eastern 2% 13% 20% 26% 38%

Central 1% 8% 18% 27% 45%

Rift Valley 3% 9% 22% 24% 42%

Nyanza 5% 2% 9% 46% 38%

Nairobi 8% 10% 2% 10% 70%

Aggregate 5% 13% 15% 26% 41%

Are you aware of the names that ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo has just released as people who bear the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence

Base 1425



Level of Satisfaction with names

mentioned in the Hague 6 list

Would you say you are satisfied with the just released list by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo as the people who bear the greatest

responsibility for the post-election violence?



Slightly more than half of Kenyans reported their satisfaction with the ICClist

Would you say you are satisfied with the just released list by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo as the people who bear the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence?

More rural based population (55%)

reported satisfaction with the ICC list ascompared to their urban basedcounterparts (47%)

47%55%

51% 51%

39%32%

36% 34%

14% 14% 13% 14%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


LOCATION GENDER

Yes No Not sure

Base 1500

Yes, 51%No, 35%

Not sure,14%



Kenyans Satisfaction levels of on the just released list by Ocampoby Region

Would you say you are satisfied with the just released list by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo as the people who bear the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence?

Highest Satisfaction was noted in : Eastern (66%), Western (57%), Nyanza (56%) & Central 55% The high noting in Central and Eastern is contrary to belief from certain quarters that people

are not satisfied with the list

Lowest Satisfaction levels were noted in : R. Valley (40%) and North Eastern 29%

48% 47%

29%

66%

55%

40%

57% 56%

45%

31%

48%

10%

32%

52%

34%

27%

7%

22% 23% 24%

12%8% 10%

17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Nairobi Coast N.Eastern Eastern Central R.Valley Western Nyanza

Yes No Not sure

Base 1500



Reasons for satisfaction

It will bring to book the main perpetrators of violence and not

the protesters

It is better than nothing

Lack of faith in a local tribunal

Independent investigations were carried out

Absence of the two principals which otherwise would havedestabilized the country ( fear of another violence)

Naming of political leaders will deter incitement in future

It holds responsible both parties which were contesting forpower



Reasons for dissatisfaction

The list is not exhaustive i.e. The six were not the only people involved in thepost election violence

The hatchet men should also be brought to book

The process was not transparent i.e. witch hunting

Biased investigations

It is a deliberate effort to scuttle 2012 political equation especially the politicalalliances

The list is not regionally balanced

It left out the two principals

The list has dwindled systemically from the original number to only six



Are you surprised with the

names on the list?

Did you expect those listed below to be on the list just released by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo?



Majority of Kenyans expected only 2 to 3 names of the 6 persons mentioned in theICC list

• Approximately seven in ten Kenyans expected only 2 to 3 names of

those mentioned by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo asbearing the greatest responsibility for post election violence

• Interestingly, nearly one in ten of the Kenyans surveyed did notexpect any of the persons mentioned to make the ICC list

Correct mentions of those in the list %

Mentioned all 1



Mentioned only 1 name 17

Mentioned none correctly 9


Base 1425



Expectation of names by region

Region

Expected Names

Mentioned allMentioned 4-5

names

Mentioned 2-3

names

Mentioned only 1

name

Mentioned none

correctly

Nairobi 2% 4% 83% 7% 3%

North Eastern 0% 1% 53% 25% 21%

Coast 0% 16% 67% 6% 11%

Eastern 1% 10% 64% 17% 8%

Central 0% 3% 80% 14% 3%

Rift Valley 1% 2% 74% 19% 3%

Western 1% 2% 69% 24% 4%

Nyanza 1% 3% 68% 23% 6%

Aggregate 1% 4% 71% 16% 8%

Did you expect those mentioned to be on the list just released by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo?

Base 1425

M l h f l d l f h d i h



More males than females expected at least two of those named in the

ICC list

6%

12%

76%

5%

1%

11%

21%

65%

2% 1%

9%17%

71%

4% 1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

None One Two - Three people Four - Five people All six

Male Female Aggregate


Base 1425

l h lf f d h h d h d b i



Nearly half of Kenyans reported that they expected those named to be inthe ICC list


William Ruto, Uhuru

Kenyatta & Hussein Ali were the ones that mostKenyans expected to bein the ICC list at 84%,67% & 55% respectively

Joshua Arap Sang’ is theone person that majority of Kenyans (64%) didnot expect to be in theICC list84%

67%

55%

33%

24%

14%

12%

22%

25%

29%

25%

22%

4%

12%

20%

38%

51%

64%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

William Ruto

Uhuru Kenyatta

Hussein Ali

Henry Kosgey

Ambassador Francis Muthaura

Joshua Arap Sang’

NO

SOMEWHAT

YES

Base 1425

YES, 46%

SOMEWHA T, 23%

NO, 31%



Levels of surprise with regard to the naming of the Hague 6

Category Very Surprised Somewhat surprised Not at all surprised

Overall Incidence Overall Incidence Overall Incidence

Region withHighestnoting

Nairobi 57% Central 28% Western 56%

Noting by

Age55+ yrs 37% 35 - 44 yrs 24% 25 - 34 yrs 48%

The youth were not surprised with the list, neither were those from Western.

Highest levels of surprise were noted among those 55yrs and above andthose in Nairobi



Confidence that those mentioned

will be brought to book?

Do you believe that those mentioned by ICC prosecutor Louis MorenoOcampo will be brought to book by the ICC?

M j it f K b li th t th ti d i th ICC li t ill b



Majority of Kenyans believe that those mentioned in the ICC list will bebrought to book by the ICC

Do you believe that those mentioned by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo will be brought to

book by the ICC?

61% 59% 61% 60%

15%21% 17% 17%

24%21% 21% 24%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


LOCATION GENDER

Yes No Not sure

Base 1500

More males (61%) than females (60%) believethose mentioned in the ICC list will be brought

to book by the ICC

Most Urban based Kenyans (61%) believe thatthose mentioned in the ICC list will be broughtto book by the ICC as compared to their ruralcounter parts (59%)

Yes, 61%No, 17%

Not sure,22%

M j it f K b li th t th ti d i th ICC li t ill b



Majority of Kenyans believe that those mentioned in the ICC list will bebrought to book by the ICC

Do you believe that those mentioned by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo will be brought to book by the ICC?

57%

62%

48%

63% 64%

57%

70%

60%

18%

12%

42%

6%

22% 25%

10% 10%

26% 26%

10%

31%

14%18%

20%

30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Nairobi Coast N Eastern Eastern Central R Valley Western Nyanza

Yes No Not sure

The believe that those mentioned in the ICC list will be brought to book by the ICC is more than 60% in all regions except in North Eastern (48%), Rift Valley (57%) and Nairobi (57%)

Base 1500

M j i f K d h i d b h ICC d d



Majority of Kenyans surveyed want those mentioned by the ICC prosecutor and dohold public offices to either quit their offices or be relieved of their duties

More females (84%) than males(82%) feel that those mentioned by the ICC prosecutor and hold publicoffices should either quit theiroffices or be relieved of their duties

17% 18% 18% 16%

38% 37% 37% 37%45% 45% 45% 47%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Location Gender

Stay in office Be relieved of their duties Quit office

Stay inoffice, 18%

Be relievedof their

duties, 37%

Quit office,45%

Do you feel that those mentioned by the ICC prosecutor and hold public offices should…

Base 1500

M j it f K d t th ti d b th ICC t d d



Majority of Kenyans surveyed want those mentioned by the ICC prosecutor and dohold public offices to either quit their offices or be relieved of their duties

• Nyanza (65%) and Eastern regions (54%) recorded the highest

incidence level of the feeling that those mentioned by the ICCprosecutor and do hold public offices to quit their offices

Do you feel that those mentioned by the ICC prosecutor and hold public offices should…

22%

3%

37%

9%12%

35%

6% 7%

30%

49% 50%

36%40%

38%

45%

28%

48% 48%

13%

54%

47%

27%

50%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Stay in office Be relieved of their duties Quit office

Base 1500



Intention to Vote for those mentioned in

the Hague 6 List should they wish to hold

public office

Would you vote for an aspiring candidate for any public office who has beenmentioned in the list released by the ICC prosecutor Moreno Ocampo?

M j it f K i di t d th t th ld t t f th h



Majority of Kenyans indicated that they would not vote for those whoaspire to hold public offices and have been mention in the Hague 6 list

• More rural based (68%) than urban based

population (66%) mentioned they would not vote for those who aspire to hold publicoffices and have been mention in the Hague 6list

Yes, 20%

No, 67%

Not sure,13%

22% 19% 21% 18%

66% 68% 67% 67%

13% 14% 12%15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


LOCATION Gender

Yes No Not sure

Would you vote for an aspiring candidate for any public office who has been mentioned in the list released by ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo?

Base 1500

M j it f K i di t d th t th ld t t f th i t



Majority of Kenyans indicated that they would not vote for those aspire tohold public offices and have been mention in the Hague 6 list

• Western, Coast and Eastern regions recorded the highest incidencelevels of those who mentioned they would not vote for those whoaspire to hold public offices and have been mention in the Hague 6 listat 84%, 82% & 82% respectively

Would you vote for an aspiring candidate for any public office who has been mentioned in the list released by the ICC prosecutor Moreno Ocampo?

19%

8%

34%

7%

17%

40%

8%13%

69%

82%

36%

82%

70%

47%

84%

72%

12% 10%

31%

11% 14% 13%8%

15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Yes No Not sure

Base 1500



Effect of the Hague 6 on 2012 politics

Do you think the results of the investigations would affect the 2012 politics?

At least three in four Kenyans feel that the ICC process will affect the 2012



At least three in four Kenyans feel that the ICC process will affect the 2012politics

• Across all the regions those who feel thatthe results of the investigations will affect

the 2012 politics have an incidence levelof less than half except in Nyanza whichrecorded the highest level at 58%

Do you think the results of the investigations would affect the 2012 politics?

47%

20%

41%

45%

39%

45%

39%

58%

30%

46%

36%32%

29%35% 34%

31%

23%

34%

23% 23%

32%

20%

28%

12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


YES SOMEWHAT NO

Base 1500

YES, 45%

SOMEWHA T, 33%

NO, 23%

Expectation from the ICC/ICC prosecutor from Kenyans now that the



Expectation from the ICC/ICC prosecutor from Kenyans now that the

list of six have been mentioned

Base 1500 What do you expect from the ICC/ ICC prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo now that the list of thosementioned as bearing the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence has been released?

31%

26%

16%

16%

8%

6%

2%

1%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Ensure swift prosecution

Carry out a fair trial and ensure justice for both victims andsuspects

Conduct independent investigations

Issue summons/warrants of arrest immediately

Speed up the ICC processes in time for the 2012 elections

Continue with the ICC process without fear or favour

Bring more suspects to book

Refer them to a local tribunal

Forgive them



DEMOGRAPHICS

Gender



Gender

Male, 50%

Female, 50%

Base 1500

Age



Age

26%

41%

20%

9%

5%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18-24 Yrs 25-34 Yrs 35 - 44 Yrs 45 - 54 Yrs 55+ Yrs

Base 1500

L ti



Location

Urban, 32%

Rural, 68%

Base 1500

L l Of Ed ti



Level Of Education

14%

36% 35%

12%

2% 1%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Primary Secondary College University Post graduate None

Marital Status



Marital Status

37%

57%

3% 3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Single Married Divorced/ Separated Widowed

kenyan's take on icc ocampo list of 6

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