26 Sept. 2018

KERALA – Flood and after.

P. Abraham Paul. FIE, FIETE.

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KERALA – Flood and after

KERALA – Flood and after.

NATURAL CALAMITIES DO HAPPEN; DISASTERS

ABOVE CERTAIN MAGNITUDE ARE BEYOND

HUMAN CONTROL.

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Nevertheless, Living in miseries in the PRESENT, doing same mistakes of the PAST,

without seeking solutions for the FUTURE, is meaningless.

1.1. Hats off to the People of Kerala by and large, firstly the Millions of Victims of the Flood, who bravely faced it in typical Kerala style. Thanks from everyone in the State are due to :- The General public by and large, from all walks of life without any discretion,

rendered help and assistance in many ways.

The brave and kind heartened and adventurous Fisher folks from coastal areas came in large number with over 600 of their boats and flung into action challenging many odds in high flood situation.

The Social Media, many of them opened big call centers round the clock, send their reporters everywhere to collect and pass information on real time basis facing tedious efforts and harsh environment.

All those in Central Defense and Disaster Management Services, Associations, Institutions and Organizations,

Members of all political parties, Law and Order personnel, Last but not the least those in Government top to bottom especially the Hon Chief Minister of Kerala handled it boldly, diligently and decisively on 24/7 basis.

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The State of Kerala had experienced huge crisis during this Monsoon. Obviously reasons said to be are: - • Unusually Abnormal and Prolonged Monsoon Rain Falls, in a

Century.

• Absence of spare capacity in Reservoirs to let in Monsoon Rain water from catchment areas.

• Absence of more advance ‘Official’ Weather forecast.

• Absence of a Standard Operating Procedure. !!

• Difficulty in striking a balance between the conflicting interests about the Prime object of Dams and its Purposes.

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INTRODUCTION. 1. KERALA – Flood and after. An introspection.

1.2. Naturally, the focus of everyone now shall be on Rescue, Recovery, Reliefs, Restoration and Rebuilding / Reconstruction; Not of comments about the past, whatever be. Nonetheless, while all these call for exhaustive all-round, Coordinated and Continuous Efforts at Huge Cost, Time, Great Political Will and Cooperation of every one, from Authorities and the People. Natural calamities do happen; Disasters above certain magnitude are beyond Human Control. But then, that is no reason not to attempt whatever are possible to reduce the impact of various Calamities and Disasters caused by it and look for precautions. It is therefore, the urgent need to Introspect & Analyze the issues at hand, and Act pragmatically without bias whatsoever, and Of course - Blaming none; Thinkng about ‘WHAT NEXT’; by Government, the Agencies involved and all others concerned.

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2. ABOUT THE GEOLOGY, TOPOGRAHY & ECOLOGY of KERALA. Being Sloppy Terrain with Western Ghats in the East, down to its full border Sea coast in the West, Very many Rivers and large Lakes in between, Gateway of Clock like Monsoon Rains gifting good Monsoons, and equally good Sunshine round the year, make KERALA the GOD’s OWN COUNTRY. However the Typical ECOLOGY and Topography of the Western Gats with the Sandy Clay Soiled Hills make it ‘Ecologically Sensitive Zone (ESZ).’

It is therefore, the presence of too many Dams and its wide spread Catchment areas and Reservoirs there, are of great concern. This has much relevance in the present context of a devastating Monsoon and the disastrous Flood, especially at the Tail end of an unusually prolonged monsoon, needing a closer look at things at hand, and its factual introspection, more than ever before. 9/20/2018 7

3. Rivers and Dams in Kerala.

RIVERS.

Kerala has 27 major rivers (44 with its many tributaries altogether), of which 26 of them flow from East to West. In addition to it, Kerala has many lift irrigation projects of Canals to carry water to far-away farm lands with less loss of water, en-route.

DAMs.

There are 42 Main DAMs (80 in all, adding the big and small ones) in the State of Kerala.

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3.1. Prime object of Dams. Prime Object of DAM is to collect Rain water in its Catchment areas in the Hills and keep it stored in its Reservoirs. The Purposes met by the Prime Object of Dams are:- • To store and keep the excess Rain water in its Reservoirs

during Monsoon days to Prevent Flood in the Main land. • To Rejuvenate Rivers to maintain Subsoil Water in the Main

Lands; and for Irrigation of Farm Lands, in the lean days using Rain water collected, saved and stored in its Reservoirs.

• To Prevent Droughts during the lean days by letting out water

stored in it’s reservoirs.

How? By ensuring Regulated, Monitored, Controlled and Continuous Water flow from Reservoirs into Rivers during dry seasons.

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3.2. Incidental object of Dams.

Electric Power generation with Hydro-Electric Systems, using

Rain Water collected in the Catchment areas and stored in its

Reservoirs has later became an incidental Object of Dams.

However, the Sandy Clay soiled hill tops in Western Ghats being

Eco Sensitive Zones (ESZs); Hydro Electric Power Generation

as an Incidental Object of Dams could become problematic,

unless well managed.

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3.3. In order to realize the above said Prime Objective of Dams and its Purposes:- 1. Reservoirs of DAMs shall be maintained with enough capacity in it to ensure Regulated, Monitored and Continuous Water flow to prevent Rivers getting dried up, during lean seasons, causing Droughts. 2. Reservoirs of DAMs shall be maintained with enough spare capacity to allow inflow of Monsoon Rain Water from its Catchment areas, with sufficient Margin of Safety to prevent over filling of Dams, and letting it out aggravating Flood situation in the Main Lands.

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3.4. Therefore, there is an urgent need to look into the effects of Dams and its Catchment areas in the ECO SENSITIVE ZONES (ESZs) in the Western Ghats. Viz., - The number of Dams, its Size, Spans, Depth and Capacity and spread of its Reservoirs and Catchment areas that are rendered exclusively for that purpose and its influence on Sandy Clay like Spongy Soil Hill tops and the Landscape around there. Hope the Governments will consider to have a proper Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) with a Clause;

The Water level in a Dam at the onset Monsoon shall be maintained as:- (Maximum permissible level of the Dam) minus (Mean of past 10 year’s Increase in Water level during that Monsoon.)

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3.5. It was strange to know about non-existence of a Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) on Water Management in Dams. It has been worrisome to come to know in a Media discussion during the Flood, that the makers, operator and one of the prime beneficiaries of Dams in Kerala, neither have a SOP nor follow one on Dam Management. Also it was said that they do not take any actions based on Weather reports of Private agencies. What they do is, issue Alerts and let out water from Dams, based on ‘Official’ only‘ Official’ advice from concerned Government Authority; and that too only when Water in approach the Danger level, endangering Dams. (Watching it prompted me to write this. Incidentally, I had been associated with preparation of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) in the form Engineering Instructions, on QA, QC & Preventive Maintenance, in the DOT India in the 60s & 70s, and also later made such Procedures and Practices for GSM systems and Networks in India, in the 90’s.)

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4. It is worthy to ponder whether all Rivers and Dams in Kerala serve the above objects or just the opposite? Irony is, most Rivers in Kerala remain dry in most part of the year. Whatever little Water trickle down also will not remain in the Rivers as unscientifically managed Sand mining, either too much or too little, leaving Rivers not even left with a narrow ‘water channel’ in it during the Summer days. • No water flowing in Rivers stopped bringing down the much needed fertilizing

Muddy soil (EKKAL) from Catchment areas, that help to fertilize the farm fields. Currently the Mud & Silt from vast catchment areas flow into the reservoirs and settle there, reducing its depth and storage capacity, making Dams less useful.

• No water flowing down in Rivers stopped bringing down the River Sand, making

scarcity of River Sand, one of the main ingredients Construction works, for many years now.

• Even many of the lift irrigation Canals are not being charged continuously and

therefore, remain dysfunctional, rendering most of these becoming useless by filling trash in it, everywhere.

The main reason of encroachment of River Banks and nearby low lying areas is because of the Rivers perennially remaining dry. Continued

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Rivers are probably the most dynamic of all waterscapes on this living planet. Running like arteries, they connect diverse ecosystems in a range of altitudes; and connect lives and livelihoods in an unending cycle of energy transfer and flow. The course of a river is determined by the valleys and mountains it gushes through, their slope and gradient, and soil structure. A river is often born as hill streams, flows down the gradient carrying sand, silt, minerals and nutrient rich detritus of biota, and as the river slows down, it leaves behind sediments. If too much sediment is shed, then it speeds up again and the sequence is repeated. This process of balancing energy, discharge, sediment load/ deposition and gradient operates all along the river’s course until the sea. It is this process that shapes a river’s profile and behavior, forming valleys, fertile alluvial plains, wetlands and deltas, and causing eroding bans, floods and siltation. The ever shifting beds and banks along with the ground water below are integral to the river. Plant communities soak up rain and it seeps into underground aquifers, from where it continues to flow further downstream. Aquifers are suppliers of wells and in effect feed the rivers. The nature of streams and rivers along with these complex processes determines characteristics of a watershed or river basin. In that sense, every river originating from the Western Ghats of Kerala is unique, with certain underlying characteristics.

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4.2. There are many advance systems available now. 4.2.1. Satellite based Weather Observation Centers. It shall be the responsibility of the Government and other agencies to set up Satellite Weather observation Centers and its Sub units, in the Hills and all over the State. Supported with full fledged Computer controlled systems in place will help to take to take advance actions based on Standard Operation Procedures (SOP).

To ensure: i) Continuous, regulated & monitored water flow to rejuvenate Rivers to maintain

Subsoil water and Irrigation of Agricultural Lands throughout the year.

ii) Prevention of flood due to letting out huge quantity of water from Dams reservoirs in the Hills in a spurt to Midlands and Low lands.

iii) Prevention of Landslides due to hoarding and holding Water at Soft Soiled Hill Tops.

iv) Prevention of Droughts in Mainland during dry days.

v) To assist Water Transport in Rivers with Water Gates to enhance Tourism to Highlands.

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4.2.2. ADVANCE COLLECTION AND DISTRIBUTION OF WEATHER REPORTS.

There shall be better systems and methods to have advance Satellite based weather forecasts, and coordinated action plans in advance by all agencies concerned down to Panchayat Level. Along with it, Government shall also think of providing Satellite Connectivity to every Panchayat office as general Phone services are the first thing to fail in disaster situations. Every Panchayat office shall have a have a Loud Hooter to warn the people sufficiently in advance about the possibility of a Calamity in that area. Also there shall be Vertical Granite Stone Pedestals inscribed with Bench marks such as “Height above Mean Sea Level, High Flood Level, Type of Soil and areas ear marked as ESZs.

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4.2.3. Advance weather Monitoring and Mapping systems.

Satellite support for collection of meteorological Data. The INSAT series of satellites carrying Very High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR) have been providing data for generating cloud motion vectors, cloud top temperature, Water vapor content, etc., facilitating rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, genesis of cyclones and their track prediction. These satellites have also carried Data Relay Transponders (DRT) to facilitate reception and dissemination of meteorological data from in-situ instruments located across vast and inaccessible areas. ISRO has also designed and developed ground based observation systems such as, Automatic Weather Station (AWS), Agro-meteorological (AGROMET) Tower and Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) as well as Vertical Atmospheric Observations System such as GPS Sonde and Boundary Layer LIDAR (BLL). These ground based system would augment the space based observations and validating the outcomes pertaining to various earth system processes.

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4.4. Water Resources Information System (WRIS) & Central Water Commission (CWC) There are elaborate documentation on information on advance Weather Forecast, Ensuring Water Security, Command area development, Enhancing Irrigation efficiency, Capacity Estimation of Reservoirs, Water resource assessment at Basin level, Ground water Information and Water Resource Information being used by Web enabled Water Resources information System (WRIS) in coordination with Central water Commission (CWC) for this purpose. True, this year’s Monsoon was unusually heavy and prolonged. That is all the more reason then, for the Government to have proper Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) with enough margin of safety, and kept it revised from time to time as needed, also anticipating and take into account the deviations due to rare occurrences such as in this year, and act on Pre-Monsoon precautionary measures etc., in advance as a routine procedure.

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5. PREVENTION IS BETTER THAN CURE. Of course, whatever said and done, Calamities do happen; disasters beyond certain magnitude are beyond Human Control. There is no meaning in telling , we had big flood in 1924 and so this too shall pass like that. It is therefore, we should look at what all could be done on Priority basis to Prevent Flood Disasters. Create Fresh Water bodies wherever possible, across the State as part of Kerala rebuilding plan. i. What need to be done to prevent such disasters because of exceptionally heavy rain falls, as a top priority is to prevent huge volume of Water stored in Catchment areas and Reservoirs of Dams in Hill tops, by allowing it to flow down in a continuous and regulated way through the year and store it by retaining / converting all unused farm fields and other such in low lying areas and elsewhere, as Fresh Water Lakes to store local rain water, and water flowing down from Dams through Rivers without allowing its Occupation by filling it for various constructions in such places with least concern of the Building rules and Topography, Surface Geology, Type and Nature of Soil, Known High Flood Level etc., ignoring the need of enough Water bodies to store and retain Rain water preventing floods and disasters. ii. Along with this, the Rivers, Lakes, Canals and other water bodies in the State should be deepened in Summer days by removing Mud and Sand to enhance its storage capacity, and using the mud and sand removed from there to restore areas in the Sea coasts that are badly affected due Sea Erosion. iii. The area and capacity of such fresh water Lakes and other Water bodies made available shall be equal to; if not more, than that of all Catchment areas and Reservoirs in the Hill tops, put together. This will ensure draining of Catchment areas and Reservoirs to allow monsoon water to flow into these, while water is let out in a continuous process of regulated and monitored water outflow from Dams though Rivers and Canals down to these fresh water lakes and other water bodies, making those available for Irrigation, growing Fish, Water transport, Tourism Etc,.

5.1. About the big Flood in 1924 and now in 2018. A Media Report on 1924 Deluge in this Monsoon, 2018. Kerala’s once-in-a-lifetime rainfall in 2018 was 2,378 mm over 88 days, four times more than normal, but 30% less and spread over 61 days more than the deluge of 1924 lasted only 27 days, the most intense flood in the state’s recorded history, submerging as it did almost the entire coastline. So why was the flood of 2018 as devastating as the 3,368 mm rainfall that Kerala received 94 years ago (locally called the “Deluge of 99”, since it occurred in the year 1099 of the Malayalam calendar)? It appears to be because Kerala has reduced its capacity to deal with such extreme floods by allowing to encroach & Occupy too much of the Ecologically Sensitive Zones (ESZs) in its Soft & Spongy Sandy Clay Hill tops, and many permanent Multi storied Bricks & Concrete Constructions on the slopes of Hills, illegal stone quarrying, cutting down forests and grasslands, changing drainage patterns and sand mining on River beds. “Rampant stone quarrying and digging of pits is the reason behind the landslides and landslips, which worsened the situation in the Kerala floods,” Said Sri Madhav Gadgil, ecologist and founder of the Centre for Ecological Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru.” (#Due credits.)

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5.2. Though most of the civilization began on River banks, People by and large in those days were also wise enough not to have their dwellings in low lands that are affected by floods that happened every year. Water transport was the only way to travel in those days. Most house holds had own Country boat, (Vallom) ready to use during the flood situations. People by and large then were happy with Floods. In fact people in those days were unhappy and worried if there lack of enough rains and the usual flooding of Rivers, Canals and Water bodies and farm lands. Things would have been much better now as Civilizations everywhere have made a quantum leap in the past half Century more than ever before. There is no meaning in telling we had big flood in 1924 and so this too shall pass like that without looking where we have gone wrong. Of course, whatever said and done, Calamities do happen; disasters beyond certain magnitude are beyond Human Control.

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5.3. Governments need to cultivate awareness, in the first place. A Typical example how we caused damage to the Eco system, is to just look at what had happened to the farm fields in the low lying areas all across the City of Trivandrum, a wonderful place I happened to see from the 40's in erstwhile Maharaja’s time. Of course, there have been high rise in population and hence scarcity of land, but then the City should have been expanded long back into its beautiful suburbs on its all three sides. That is what every other States do. (Incidentally, I had been the Telecom Division Engineer in-charge of these areas in the 90's, and before that I was looking after planning & implementation of new Telephone exchanges in many towns, all over the Country and seen its transformation during past 3 to 4 decades. I always wondered why the Governments here in Kerala not thinking on those lines, instead crowding everything within the old Cities and Towns.) However, these are part of the perils of Democracy and we have to live with it. Hope this experience of Flood & after will bring some awareness in the Governments.

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5.4. The above mentioned issues need to be looked in on top priority to know whether Dams in Kerala are serving its objects.

DAMS ALONE ARE OF NO HELP. It is necessary to identify and plan to use existing unused farm lands in low lying areas, that are likely to get dried up during summer days converting into Fresh water Lakes, fully or partially, as required, if necessary by laying its floors with locally mass produced Katcha Bricks, to retain required water level through out the seasons. Such fresh water lakes can be used for growing fish, boating and for water transport by linking these with 'Water Gates' like in Netherlands, in between where necessary, from South end of the State, all the way to North. A Typical Example how we caused damage to the Eco system, is to just look at what had happened to the farm fields in the low lying areas all across the City of in Trivandrum, a wonderful place I happened to have seen from the 40's during erstwhile Maharaja’s time. Of course, there have been high rise in population and hence scarcity of land, but then the City should have been expanded long back into its beautiful suburbs on its all three sides. That is what every other States do.

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6. It is high time to introspect whether Kerala need these many Dams? i) Dams have limited Life Span. Dams in itself have limited life span and likely to fail one day, causing great disaster beyond imagination. It may be seen that average life span of Dams in United States, where probably the usage of best materials and construction practice are followed, is said to be 50 - 100 years. (Refer Wikipedia) Imagine what would happen if an old Dam like the ‘MULLAPERIYAR' commissioned in 1895 made even with the best technology then, collapse due to overage, overloading or due to an Earth quake (God forbid), by chance.

ii) Seismic activity in the DAM region: Credits to www.asc.india.org (E&OE)

Seismic activity in the recent past has occurred in clusters (3) along the border with Tamil Nadu, primarily in the districts of Idukki and Palakad. A number of faults have been identified in Kerala out of which a few, like the Periyar Fault are active. However, it must be stated that proximity to faults does not necessarily translate into a higher hazardas compared to areas located further away, as damage from earthquakes depends on numerous factors such as subsurface geology as well as adherence to the building codes.

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However, it must be stated that proximity to faults does not necessarily translate into a higher hazard as compared to areas located further away, as damage from earthquakes depends on numerous factors such as subsurface geology as well as adherence to the building codes. Due credits to www.asc.india.org (E&OE)

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Seismic activity in the DAM region:

iii. The Topography of Kerala in itself has the ability to reduce flooding in its Mainland. Entire Kerala being a sloppy terrain with Hills in the East, Sea in the West and Plain fields, Farm lands, Vast Lakes, other Water bodies, Rivers and Canals in the middle, there is no reason for such big havoc due to big flood anywhere in Kerala. The 1924 flood was due to exceptionally high rain falls, but the effect of its disaster was not as big as what is seen now. There were no dams (except Mullaperiyar which was commissioned in 1895) then. Most of the rain fall then was spread all over entire land space, got stored and absorbed in the Rivers, Lakes and vast Paddy fields and in mostly uninhabited low lands, all across provinces, and things became normal in few days as rains stopped. In fact, some amount of flooding during Monsoon were welcome in those days then as it cleaned out land, rivers and farm fields and brought in much needed fertilizing muddy soil (EKKAL) enriching farmlands, rejuvenated Rivers and Subsoil water and prevented severe droughts, and enabled water transport from hinder-lands between villages and to Towns for Villager’s commercial activities.

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Iv) The irony is, closing down of Dams is almost impossible. Dams have limited life span, is a fact. (Refer Wikipedia) Notwithstanding anything said above, having made the Dams, that also too many of them, shutting down of those is almost impossible, in spite of the fact that those have limited life span and surely can become problematic some time in the future, which is definitely worrisome. Therefore, the way out available as of now is to live with it and do whatever possible such as to allow continuous regulated and monitored outflow from all Dams in summer and also all throughout the year, and stored in existing Rivers and Lakes, deepened to contain more water and creating more fresh water lakes wherever possible by converting unused paddy fields and other low lying areas across the State, so that water in the dams are kept as low as possible during most part of the year, especially before onset of Monsoons, allowing enough space in it to take in the full water inflow which will still be at a comfortable level safeguarding the Dams. Considering the above, one of the priorities in "Rebuilding Kerala" shall be deepening existing ones and creating more and more fresh water Lakes and where necessary, by paving its floor laid with mass produced Kachha Country Bricks, to retain desired water level during summer. In addition, plan restoration of low lying areas for holding water during monsoons shifting out and relocated in colonies with modern amenities as part of 'Kerala-reconstruction' ideas.

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Conclusion: 1. In the final analysis, though the adverse effects was due to this year’s excessive and prolonged monsoon rains; the calamities could have been reduced to some extent with better Dam management.

However, intentions shall be not blaming anyone but to find out facts and to seek solutions.

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2. True, this year’s Monsoon was unusually heavy and prolonged. That is all the more reason then, for the Government to have proper Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) with enough margin of safety, anticipating also and taking into account the deviations due to rare occurrences such as in this year, and device Pre-Monsoon precautionary measures etc., as a routine in advance and kept revised from time to time as needed. Fortunately there are much better and early forecasts these days to enable these, making use of it is Government's responsibility. Hereafter there shall be proper Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) revised from time to time according weather forecasts. For Example:- The Water level in a Dam at the onset Monsoon shall

be maintained as:- (Maximum permissible level of the Dam) minus (Mean of past 10 year’s Increase in Water level during that Monsoon)

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Government shall also think of alternate source of Power generation from Wind, Solar, Thermal, Nuclear etc.

More Captive units of Hydro electric Power generation systems located in the down streams of in the Canals that carry water left out from the Dams on BOT Basis is an option. There are enough reasons move away from dependency on Dams that have limited lifespan and also against laws of Nature and hence problem prone, the sooner the better. Continued: KERALA – Flood and after. Recovery, Relief, Restoration, Rebuilding: PRIORITY 1 To 3 and PART.II - FUNDS NEEDED AND HOW TO GO ABOUT IT.

3. NEED TO LOOK FOR ALTERNATE SORCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION.

KERALA - Flood and after

CONTINUED:

PRIORITY ACTIONS 1, 2 & 3

AND ABOUT FUNDINGS.

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PRIORITY WISE ACTIONS TO RECOVER & REBUILD KERALA.

PRIORITY 1. RESTORATION OF ECO SYSTEM WITH LESS DEPENDENCY ON DAMS BY DEVELOPING EXIXTING WATER BODIES AND CREATING MORE.

The No.1 Priority is to make available enough WATER BODIES in the State by:- a) Developing, refurbishing and deepening all existing Fresh Water

Bodies in the State on a war footing basis. b) Creating additional Water Bodies by:- Converting all suitable but unused fields wherever available, in Lowlands, Midlands and Highlands throughout the State, into Fresh Water Lakes; as part of a State wide Rain Water Harnessing plan; and also to store excess water flowing down through Rivers and Canals.

MOTO: Calamities do happen, Disasters beyond certain magnitude are beyond Human Control. To Live in Miseries in the PRESENT, Doing same Mistakes of the PAST, Unwilling to Introspect, Learn Lessons and Seek solutions for the FUTURE, is MEANINGLESS.

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PRIORITY WISE ACTIONS TO RECOVER & REBUILD KERALA.

PRIORITY 1. (CONTINUED 1)

c) To reduce dependency on huge volume of Rain Water Collected

and Stored perennially in Catchment areas of very many DAMs in

the Sandy Clay Soil Hill Tops that are ECO Sensitive Zones,

disturbing the ECOLOLGY of the Region;

For the Sole Purpose of Electricity Generation using Hydro Electric

Plants;

d) By allowing the Rain water falling spread over in the Hill tops,

coming down in natural Streams and Canals and store in these

Fresh Water Lakes in Highlands, Midlands and Lowlands across the

State.

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The area and capacity of such fresh water Lakes and other Water bodies made available shall be equal to or more than that of the Catchment areas and a major part of the Reservoirs of the Dams in the Hill tops, put together. This will ensure draining of Catchment areas and Reservoirs to allow monsoon water to flow into it, as water from Dams is let out in a continuous process of regulated and monitored water outflow though Rivers and Canals down to these fresh water lakes and other water bodies, Making those available for Irrigation, growing Fish, Water transport, Tourism Etc,.

PRIORITY WISE ACTIONS TO RECOVER & REBUILD KERALA.

PRIORITY 1. CONTINUED: 2

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Along with the above, the Rivers, Lakes, Canals and other water bodies in the State should be deepened in Summer days by removing Mud and Sand to enhance its storage capacity, - And using the mud and sand removed from there to restore areas in the Sea coasts that are badly affected due Sea Erosion. Stop occupation shallow Water bodies and low lying area and in and Mangroves and other Eco sensitive landscapes for any sort of Buildings and other Constructions; - With least concern of the rules like Topography, Surface Geology, Type and Nature of Soil, Known High Flood Level etc.

PRIORITY 1. CONTINUED - 2

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SEGMENTATAION AND SEGREGATION OF KERALA LANDSCAPE AND WATERBODIES

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The above processes shall be done on top priority on a war footing basis. To start with, identify and plan to use existing unused vacant areas in Eco Sensitive Zones (ESZs) and unused Farm lands in low lying areas, that are likely to get dried up during summer days, converting into Fresh water Lakes, fully or partially, as required. Wherever necessary by laying the floors of these Fresh Water Lakes with locally mass produced katcha country Bricks, to retain required water level through out the seasons.

PRIORITY 1. CONTINUED - 3

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Such fresh water lakes can be used for growing fish, Boating and Tourism, and for Water transport; By linking these with 'Water Gates' from South end of the State, all the way to North, like in Netherlands. Taking expertise and assistance from Netherlands will be useful development process of Water Bodies. Especially in Development of Landscapes across the State by segregation of Water bodies at different altitudes by construction of Dykes, Watergates in Rivers and Canals linking between the Land segments at different altitudes.

PRIORITY 1. CONTINUED - 4

KERALA - Flood and after

CONTINUED:

PRIORITY 2.

AND LATER ABOUT Priority 3 and FUNDINGS.

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PRIORITY 2. The actions in Priority no. 2 is to go hand in hand with Priority 1 in Kerala Rebuild plans and programs:-

(a) Short term. (Immediate) (b) Long term. To be taken up in phases, initially in 4 years and continued in next 4 years. Total 8 years. a. Short term plans (Immediate) Provision of Temporary make shift Housing and Infrastructure :- i) For accommodating all those displaced from Flood prone low lying areas. ii) For immediate relocation of people from Eco Sensitive areas. Long term plans of Kerala Re-building hand in hand with developing existing and newly created Water Bodies as Priority no 1.

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b) Long term plans of Kerala Re-building need to start with and go hand in hand with actions of developing existing and newly created Water Bodies under Priority no 1. i) Re organization and Re building of Landscape of Farm Lands. ii) Re organization and restructuring of Eco friendly Infra structure, Roads and Transportation in Cities, Towns and Villages. iii) Permanent Housing and Accommodation, Waste disposal and drainage. In order to overcome Kerala's typical problems of being a highly populated State, large number of well planned and modern big colonies are to be created in the outskirts of Cities and Towns in its suburbs to provide permanent accommodation for people displaced from flood prone and the water clogging areas.

PARIORITY 2. CONTINUED -1.

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PRIORITY 2. Continued - 2 iv) Accommodate the relocated. Provide temporary housing now and permanent Accommodation later for all those relocated from Landslide / Flood prone and from encroachments in river beds and low lying areas.

v). Tourism Development. Provide Helipads and Huts in Tourist Locations. Provide Helipads. Provide Huts ECO friendly Huts for Tourists. Create Tourist attracting Gardens of Spices and Ayurvedic shrubs in the Hills and Highlands. Leave the Hills and Streams in the ESZs undisturbed, Create infrastructure and facilities to Enhance Tourism in the Water bodies.

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Creation of Infrastructure, Services and facilities, for

immediate needs, mostly done on BOT basis.

All these in Priority no 2. also need be done hand in

hand with the Development and expansion of Water

bodies under Priority no.1.

THE KEY WORDS ARE THEREFORE:

MORE FRESH WATER BODIES, LESS DEPENDENCY ON

DAMs, MORE HOUSES FOR THE DISPLACED, AND RELOCATED

FROM ESZs, UNDER PRIORITY 1 & 2.

PRIORITY 2. CONTINUED. 3.

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PRIORITY No. 3.

1. LOOK FOR OTHER FORMS ELECTRICITY.

The total Hydro Electric Power generated now with attentive

risks Kerala is about 2.16 GW.

WIND TURBINEs.

At Kerala Sea Coast ,

And Hills and wherever

wind available

in most part of the year.

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WIND TURBINES. Kerala has 583 KM Sea coast in its entire West side. With 10 Wind turbines every Kilometer in the Sea near on the Coast, can have over 5000 Wind Turbines. 5000 Wind Turbines of 3.5 MW Capacity, even at an average of 40% to 50% deliverable can generate about 8 to 10GW of Power. (Total Hydro-Electric Power being generated by KSEB now is only 2.16 GW.) More Wind Turbines can be added in Sea side, at Hills and High lands, instead of fully depending on Hydro Electric Sources, making disasters such as this waiting to happen.

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Priority 3. Continued.

2. Other sources of Power Generation. It doesn’t mean that entire Water in Dams is to be wasted by letting it go to Sea. i. Hydro Electric Power using Captive Power generation units. Hydro Electric Power generation using Captive Hydroelectric Power Units can be provided at various steps down stream, using Water flowing down from Dams to Rivers down below. ii. Electric Power with Solar systems & Feed back grids. Government should encourage and support more Solar Systems, Without need of Battery by taking in the into Feed Back Grids. iii. KSEB shall install Solar Panel units in every roof top of the buildings of willing people at KSEB’s Cost and collect Energy Generated into Feed back Grids.

KERALA - Flood and after

FUNDING OF REBUILDING KERALA

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Funds needed for proper Recovery & Rebuilding of Kerala is huge. But first thing to be done is some sort of estimation. Looking closely about the impact of disaster, it appears that so many things are to be done right from the scratch and not only the Goal posts are shifting; but also there are many invisible Goal posts. Situation being such, how can a proper and estimation done in any well planned manner. Therefore, I have used a Thump rule of Sampling and Averaging Method with the Targets explained about what all to be done in Priority 1 to 3. Continued >>>

1. THE SIZE OF MONEY REQUIRED IS ENORMOUS.

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To execute the PROGRAMS and PROJECTS as detailed above in this paper in a proper way would need huge amount of Money. Estimation of it in near to accurate basis at this point is difficult. Hence, I have used a Thump rule of Sampling & Averaging Method by segmenting the entire State for Estimation of Cost for Type of Different Projects at hand as mentioned in Priority 1 & 2, in sample area of 10 KM Square of different Topography and Geological Characteristics at different Altitudes, and worked the expenditure involved. And took the mean of it and worked out per KM Sq. on annual basis, its even distribution spread over and extended over few years, as one year is too short as the type of projects are multifold, many not Simultaneous, but Continuous and mutually dependent. Continued >>>

2.Estimation of funds required using a Thump Rule of Sampling Method.

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According to the Sampling & Averaging, Expenditure to be incurred on an average for the Types and Nature of the Projects involved to Recover and Rebuild KERALA in a fairly moderate vision, is taken as nominal amount of Rs.25 Lakhs per annum for every One Kilometer Square. Accordingly, Funds required for Recovery and Rebuilding of Kerala, having an area of 38863 KM Squares, at a average expenditure of Rupees 25 Lakhs per KM square, will be around Rs.10,000 Cr per annum and 40,000 Cr. in the first 4 years. Continued on the same pace for next 4 years it with a Total expenditure outlay of Rs.80,000 Cr. in 8 years. (This is based on a minimum vision, not to scare anyone. Actually Kerala has great potential to develop and grow needing about Rs.2Trillion in next 10 to 12 Years.)

Estimation of funds required. Continued: 1

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Forecast of Funds based on Sampling & Averaging method. Area of Kerala State: 38863 KM SQ Rounded off to 36800 KM SQ. SAMPLE Area: 1 KM SQ Segmented based on Topography. Anticipated Average Annual Expenditure in SAMPLE Area: Rs.25 Lakhs* Note: Taking into account the Projects included in Priority 1 to 3, and presuming High Cost Intensive projects will be done on BOT Basis. • Annual Expenditure in I KM SQ according to Sampling: Rs.25 Lakhs • Annual Expenditure for the State: 38863 x 25 = 10,000 Cr. (Rounded off) • Expenditure Forecast for first 4 Years: = 40,000 Cr. • Continued another 4 Years at same pace. = 40,000 Cr. • Total Forecast for 8 years: = 80,000 Cr. • To be done on BOT others (About 60%) = 48,000 Cr. (In 8 years.) • Expenditure Government Funding = 32,000 Cr. • Annual Government spend over 8 years: = 4,000 Cr. (Per annum.) Hope an Annual expenditure of Rs.4000 Crores can be managed by the Government provided high cost intensive projects are done on BOT BASIS* Note: *Based on hypothetical assumptions of Reconstruction Projects for explanatory purpose only. Actuals will be on the higher side and Tapering during the plan period.

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The Funds needed to Recover, and almost wholesome Rebuild/Reconstruction of Kerala would need at a very moderate Estimate is huge. Such an enormous amount cannot be fully amassed by any normal methods. Highly Cost Intensive projects amounts 60 to 70 % and these to be done on BOT basis. Remaining 30 to 40 % are to be amassed by other means such as:- a) Donations of sorts from Members & Groups within the State & India. From the NRI Members and Groups abroad.

b) Long terms bonds and Low interest Loans from UN and others.

c) Legally allowed Aids from Local & Global Organizations,

d) #Crowdfunding from Keralites and Others in the State, across India and

abroad, in the next 8 to 10 years.

e) Through special Budget allocation by State and Central Governments.

f) Through State Lotteries, Government Chit funds etc.

g) Special cess on Entertainment programs and Tourism. Continued >>

3. How to meet such enormous Expenditure.

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All the above said and other possible sources put together, may cover only about 30 to 40% of the need. Then what about the remaining Funds?

Cost intensive Projects for new Constructions and Infrastructure requiring 60% to 70% are to done in Build, Operate & Transfer (BOT) Mode. Supply of Lakhs of Temporary Container/Trailer type make shift accommodation, Synthetic Toilet units, Drinking Water Plants, and other infrastructure for immediate rehabilitation of flood affected people in Eco safe regions. Construction of permanent accommodation in big clusters and its infrastructure, Health and Education Centers, Roads, Power & Water supplies, and other Infrastructure for shifting out Homes and People currently residing in ECO Sensitive area.

3.1. FUNDS Needed and How to go about? Contd: 1. All High Cost Intensive Projects shall be done on BOT basis.

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3.2. FUNDS Needed and How to go about? Contd. 2

Construction of Protection walls, Deepening of Rivers, Canals and Lakes, and creation of new ones in Lowlands, Midlands and Highlands and linking of these with Canals and WATER GATES in between across the state as shown in the schematic Picture. Wind Turbines for Power Generation in the Coastal line of Kerala. Construction Wind Turbines and Solar panels in the Hills of Western Ghats. Overhead Roads and Highways Bridges and Fly overs Metros, Mini and Mono Rails systems of transport. Drinking Water distribution, Canals, Drainage systems.

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Construction of small islands in shallow seas in every district for waste processing like done in Singapore. Construction of Tourists huts in tourism attraction areas every where including the Hill tops in Western Ghats and Helipads to drop and pick up tourists. Construction of Autonomous Parking Lots and Shopping Centers above wide roads as necessary at various locations where space is problem. Building of new International Airport hubs in Kochi, Kozhikode Thiruvananthapuram and Canannore in the Sea costs with runways extended in the Sea.

3.3. FUNDS Needed and How to go about? Contd. 3

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As KSEB Becoming INTERNET SRVICE PROVIDER as a Business diversification plan, KSEB shall ALSO provide solar panel at their cost on roof tops of willing building owner and provide feedback grid. KSEB also move over to provide service on Pre-paid basis, and provision TV, Phone, Internet access as all in one Service. KSEB Using leaky cable transmission methods over OF taken on its posts, with mini/micro sites on every other posts, and on the Cable KSEB can provide outdoor Wifi Service everywhere and plan for many revenue earning services. Think of developing Twin Cities in Kerala and moving out that will be easier and cheaper than rebuilding existing ones. With these and more, the Investment , Expenditure and its Funding can grow to Rupees Two Lakh Cr. (Two Trillion) in next 10 years initially for realizing the Recovery and Rebuilding Plans; and subsequently the STATE can go on with own income, a good part of it from Tourism based.

3.4. FUNDS Needed and How to go about? Contd. 4

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3.5. To propagate Tourism and also for cheap Water Transport with less pollution, Build and organise Water Bodies segmenting, segregating and linking with Lakes in the State as shown in my schematic drawing, availing help from Netherlands. (I have been there with Phillips Holland and seen the Dyke across River Rhine and Canals Water Gates segregating water at different levels.) Think of hundreds of HOUSE BOATS carrying Tourists go up to and around the panoramic Highlands, and Forests through Kerala’s Fresh Water Rivers, segregated but linked each other with Water Gates in between, Round the year. Think of the Revenue and millions of new job opportunities, Income to people in Tourist areas all over thee State. Huge amount getting expended /invested in projects in the State can generate millions of Job opportunities in the next 10 years in the State. Plan and Build Twin cities and shift out Government Offices etc., to newly built areas. Develop Eco friendly villages without losing its serenity. Keep up quality in everything done related Kerala Rebuild is important. Make Roads properly with good quality materials and best construction practices. Never use Red soil (said to be for buffering effect) beneath the granite bed of roads, a practice seen only in Kerala; which give away during rains making pot holes in no time.

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3.6. Can Create enough Jobs for all to keep People Villages. • Adapt every Village, recruiting every un-employed person, provide training

in various skills, open manufacturing units with whatever resources available there and provide employment and supporting ancillary units..

• Make Airports in every major Cities and International Hubs in

Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi, Canannore with its Runways extended into the Sea, like those in many other small countries.

• Make enough number of Waste processing systems in small artificial

islands created in shallow Seas in every sea cost Districts. Ban non-environment friendly products. Encourage waste disposal methods at its origin itself.

• Revamp education system for inculcating awareness of environment,

Hygiene & cleanliness in schooling and parenting right in the young days. • Make Water purifying and distribution systems to make available drinking

water for people in water logged areas surrounded with water like Kuttanad.

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To go through and complete the Kerala Rebuild plan in proper way would need exorbitant amount of money like Rs.2 Trillion if not more in next 10 years. As mentioned earlier, this can be done by all high cost intensive PROJECTS and Infrastructure done by on BOT, basis by good companies.

Need to do what we can, using the experience of 'THE FLOOD and AFTER' as

an opportunity, in a war footing basis, applying corrections of the mistakes

of the PAST, lest those in the FUTURE will not forgive us in the PRESENT.

'KERALA CAN‘ - without doing anything against NATURE, but going with it

and retaining the serenity of Villages.

4. KERALA CAN.

Create Waste processing units in small Islands created near to Sea Coasts. Create other sources for Electricity; Wind, Solar, Thermal etc., quickly, again on BOT Basis.

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4.1. KERALA CAN. CONTINUED 3. KSEB’s Business diversification plan to become Internet Service Provider (ISP). As KSEB becoming ISP, it can give Digital connectivity everywhere with Optical Fiber Cables fitted on Electric Posts. With Mini/Micro cells on every other Electric pole and using 'Leaky cable system‘, KSEB can provide INTERNET, Digital TV and Phone services, direct or with WiFi Modems and IOT and AI services in the future. With in- house Digital Connectivity, KSEB can also move over to Pre-paid mode of charging. Thus Government can generate enough revenue to offset revenue loss due to closing of Hydro Electric Power units during lean seasons. The ideas mentioned above are fairly simple: Don't perennially hoard and hold Rain water up in the Hill tops; Allow it to come down, Store it in Fresh Water Lakes, in High lands, Mid lands and Low lands, in Rivers, Canals and other Water Bodies. Refurbish by de-silting and deepening existing water bodies and create new ones on top priority, sufficiently enough to store water in the Monsoons, normal and excessive and prolonged without causing flood, any more anywhere in the State.

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CREDITS: Acknowledgements with Thanks: 1. Sri Madhav Gadgil report. 2. Sri. Kasturi Rangan Report. 3. 'State of India's Rivers,2016' by Dr. A. Lalitha & Dr. Manju Vasudevan. 4. ISRO for Modern Weather forecast facilities. 5. (i) ASC.India.org (ii) www.mapsofindia.com and other sites for pictures. 6. KSEB for their herculean tasks during the flood situation. 7. Print and Visual Media for detailed reports24/7 during and after flood. 8. Other Expert Committee reports, referred. P. Abraham Paul.

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Thank you

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P. ABRAHAM PAUL. FIE, FIETE. Freelance Consultant ICT/ICN

Ex:-

- Owner & CEO FCOMNET Futuregroups, India & UAE.

- Vice President Technical Sales, SPCNL SIEMENS ICN Germany.

- Director Trg, SC & TS, SIEMENS ICN RHQ, Dubai.

- General Manager & Member Telecom Business Group,. BPL India.

- Head of System Implementation, O&M, SP & QA, BPL Mobile India.

- Telecom Engineering Service (A), DOT India.

Blog: papaulsblog.wordpress.com Tweet @pa_paul Mail: fcomnet@gmail.com