key changes in migration trends since 1951...top 10 immigration countries* share of foreign-born...

March 16, 2011Rainer Münz

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Key Changes in Migration Trends since 1951Rainer MünzErste Group

International Organization for Migration (IOM)Inter-Agency Seminar

Geneva, March 16, 2011


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Global migration


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120 years ago


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Northern and Southern

America, The Caribbean

Central Asia/Siberia

Australia, New Zealand

Palestine/IsraelAlgeria

South Africa

Migration from Europe to less developed peripheriesEurope’s answer to rapid population growth70 mn Europeans migrated to overseas’ destinations

European expansion: From settlement to labour migration


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Indian South-South Emigration 1870-1940

The Caribbean

Mauritius

Malaysia, Singapore

FijiEast Africa

South Africa

“Reshuffling” of East Indian labor within the British EmpireWhere did Mahatma Gandhi start his political career?

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page 6 March 16, 2011R. Münz

USA, Canada

South East Asia

Large scale export/import of Chinese labor

Chinese South-South and North Emigration 1850-1920


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60 years ago

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China/Taiwan

Palestine/ Israel

India/ Pakistan

Germany/Austria, Poland/Ukraine, etc.

More migrants in the global South than in the North

World migration, 1945-1950

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Today

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From where do people come?

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This is where people come from…Proportional map: Stocks of international migrants by country of origin

http://www.worldmapper.org/images/largepng/18.png

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Top 10 emigration countries*Absolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010

Number of emigrants, in millions

Source: World Bank, UNPD.

11.4

11.1

8.3

6.6

5.4

4.7

4.7

4.3

4.3

11.9

0 4 8 12

Mexico

India

Russian Federation

China

Ukraine

Bangladesh

Pakistan

United Kingdom

Philippines

Turkey

* Only countries with more than 1 million residents

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Top 10 emigration countries*Share of emigrants, in % of resident population, 2010


Share of emigrants, in % of resident population

38.9%

36.1%

28.2%

26.7%

25.1%

23.6%

21.9%

21.5%

20.8%

45.4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Albania

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Jamaica

Armenia

Trinidad and Tobago

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Macedonia

Moldova

Portugal


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Where do people go?

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… and this is where they go toProportional map: Stocks of international migrants by country of destination

http://www.worldmapper.org/images/largepng/17.png

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Top 10 immigration countries*Number of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010

Foreign-born population, in millions


42.8

12.3

10.8

7.3

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.7

5.5

5.4

0 15 30 45

United States

Russian Federation

Germany

Saudi Arabia

Canada

United Kingdom

Spain

France

Australia

India


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Top 10 immigration countries*Share of foreign-born population in % of resident population, 2010

Share of foreign-born population, in % of resident population


86.5%

70.0%

68.8%

45.9%

40.7%

40.4%

28.4%

27.8%

23.2%

22.4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Quatar

United Arab Emirates

Kuwait

Jordan

Singapore

Israel

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Switzerland

New Zealand


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BUT: 214 million migrants are only 3% of the global

US, EU27/EEA/CH, Russia, the Gulf + Australia are home or host to 60% of the world’s migrant population

Magnet societies

population


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European migration


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From emigration to immigration:The main direction changed only recently

Immigration minus emigration (= net migration), 1960-2008

Source: Eurostat.

-1,000,000

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

400 years of net emigration 25 years of net immigration


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Net migration in Europe 1950-1960Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 inhabitants

.

-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%

Source: Eurostat, UNDP.


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Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin


.

-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%



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.

-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%



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.

-2% to 0%0 to +2+2% to +5%

below -5%-5% to -2%

above +5%



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Source: UNDP.

Share of immigrants in EuropeForeign-born population as % of total population, 2010


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Today


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Europe’s mobility space (Schengen)


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.

über -2 bis 0über 0 bis +2über +2 bis +5

EU 2 citizens

free access for EU 10 and partly for EU 2

EU 10 citizens

transitional regime with exceptions

liberalized regime EEA+CH

European migration regime by citizenship / country of origin and destination country

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page 31 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010Rainer Muenz

13 old + 10 new EU member

states

territory

residency

labor market

citizenship

UK, Ireland

Bulgaria, Romania

Non-EU Schengen/EEA/

EFTA states (+CH)

European mobility and migration

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page 32 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010Rainer Muenz

Theme park: EU mobility and citizenship

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Contribution of migration and mobility to Europe’s population

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Natural change in EU-27Births minus deaths, annual average rate, 2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)

Source: Eurostat 2010.

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Net migration in EU-27Immigration minus emigration, annual average rate, 2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)


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Total population increase in EU-27Natural change plus net migration, annual average rate, 2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)


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Population increase in EU-27 is mainly due to net migrationContribution of net migration and natural change to total population increase, EU-27, 2008


Natural increase~ 27,4%

Net migration~ 72,6%

Population increase

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Net migration

contributes over 70% to total population

increase in EU-27

in m

illio

ns

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Immigration brings in a much younger population into EUAge structure of population and immigrants in EU-27


Median EU-27: 40.6 years

Median immigrants: 28.4 years


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Contribution of migration to global development and

wealth


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Remittances


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Remittances amount to over 400 billion US$ globally Remittances to emerging markets and total

Remittances 1990-2010e (2011f - 2012f), in billions

-

100

200

300

400

500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

e20

11f

2012

f

Emerging markets World



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Source: IFAD.

To emerging markets over 300 billion US$ are sent every yearRemittances to emerging markets, 2010


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Remittances are important contributions to origin countries …Top 10 remittance-receiving countries, 2009

55.051.0

22.6 21.3

15.911.6 11.1 10.4 10.2 10.0

India

ChinaMex

icoPhilip

pines

France

German

yBanglad

eshBelgium

SpainNigeri

a

Top 10 recipients of migrant remittances, in % of GDP, 2009

Top 10 recipients of migrant remittances, in US$ billions, 2010e


35%

28%

25%23% 23% 22% 22%

19%17% 16%

Tajikistan

TongaLes

otho

Moldova

NepalLeb

anon

Samoa

HondurasGuya

naEl S

alvad

or


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… and a considerable economic factor in host countriesTop 10 remittance-sending countries, 2009

48,3

26,0

19,6 18,615,9

13,0 12,610,6 9,9 8,1

United S

tates

Saudi A

rabia

Switzerla

nd

Russian Fed

eration

German

y

Italy

SpainLuxe

mbourgKuwait

Netherlan

ds


20%

17%

10%9%

8%7% 7%

5% 5%4%

LuxembourgLeb

anon

OmanMald

ivesKuwaitBahrai

nSau

di Ara

biaGuinea

-Bissa

uGuya

na

Tongo

Top 10 senders of migrant remittances, in US$ billions, 2009

Top 10 senders of migrant remittances, in % of GDP, 2009


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40% of global remittances come from Western and Central EuropeRemittances from W. and C. Europe, in US$ millions, 2006-2008

18,954

14,976

14,656

12,718

10,922

8,431

5,048

4,776

4,541

3,826

3,689

16,273

13,689

15,183

11,287

9,280

7,830

5,048

3,642

4,380

2,625

3,161

14,377

12,454

11,326

8,437

7,561

6,831

4,560

2,620

4,217

2,030

2,698

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Switzerland*

Germany

Spain

Italy

Luxembourg*

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Norway

France

Czech Republic

Belgium

200820072006

Source: IOM, World Migration Report 2010. * Some remittances are related to border residents working in one country during the day but living in a neighbouring country. These workers are not, strictly speaking, considered to be migrants.

in US$ millions


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Education


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Regional differences in tertiary enrolment rates are wideningGross enrolment ratio in tertiary education, 1999-2008

Source: OECD.


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Why do highly skilled consider to work abroad?

Source: Manpower.


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Share of tertiary educated people having migrated into a or another OECD-country

<2%<5%<10%<20%>20%

Source: OECD.


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Destinations of highly educated migrants from Central and Eastern Europe

RussiaLatvia

MoldovaUkraine

HungaryPoland

RomaniaBelarusCroatia

Czech RepublicLithuania

AlbaniaSlovenia

EstoniaBosnia and Herzegovi

BulgariaSlovakia

Serbia and MontenegrMacedonia

0 20 40 60 80 100

Red: N America Green: EU 15 Blue: other Europe Yellow: Other

in %


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Low

MiddleHigh

Low Middle High

Europe America0

5

10

15Non-OECDOECD origin

Source: OECD.

mill

ion

Europe attracts much fewer highly educated migrants than the US


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Brain drain – brain gainShare of US-immigrants with and without tertiary education, by origin countries

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mexico

Jamaica

Cuba

Bahamas

Canada

China

Iran

Nigeria

India

with tertiary graduation without tertiary graduation


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Outlook


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Why do developed societies need

migrants?


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Labour migration as answer to labour force shortages?


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238

214

17035%

52%

84%

120

180

240

300

2008 2025 20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Labor force Age group 65+/labor force

Development of labour force and support ratio – without migrationZero migration, constant labour force participation rate

Source: Own calculations based on Europop 2008.


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238229

207

35%

49%

72%

120

180

240

300

2008 2025 20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Labor force Age group 65+/labor force

Development of labour force and support ratio – + 50mn migrantsMigration, constant labour force participation rate

Source: Own calculations based on Europop 2008


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Guest worker programs in 1960s and 1970s were a first try


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Permanent immigrants do not help to solve the ageing problem …


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AgingPopulation by age groups, 1950, 2000 and 2050

Source: UN Population Division, The 2008 Revision Population Database.


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… but migration can mitigate a mismatch between supply and demand for labour


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Agriculture, especially harvesting


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Health care, nursing

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http://www.cnatrainingclasses.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/nurse141106_330x450.jpg

http://www.eduinreview.com/blog/2010/02/the-top-10-nursing-schools-in-the-us/

http://www.eduinreview.com/Education-Finder/Nursing-Link-Education/

http://www.google.at/imgres?imgurl=http://www.aaci.org.il/upimages/health(1).jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.aaci.org.il/articlenav.php%3Fid%3D132&h=532&w=800&sz=494&tbnid=R9_9wcNiQuk6lM:&tbnh=95&tbnw=143&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dhealth%2Bpicture&zoom=1&q=health+picture&hl=de&usg=__eiGqHM74JmpxVZH4chPVlVnTMyA=&sa=X&ei=5LdsTcfmN832sgaYxaG3BQ&ved=0CCcQ9QEwAg


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Tourism, hospitality, catering

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Construction

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Highly skilled

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This could partly be achieved by a higher

labour force participation rate


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Compared to US and JP, EU has a low labour force participation rateLabour force participation rate, 1975-2007


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Only few countries show labour force participation rates of above 65%Labour force participation rate of age group 15-64, in %, 2007

Source: Eurostat, National Statistical Offices.

under 50

50 to 55

55 to 60

60 to 65

65 and more

no data


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Notably youth, women and elderly have low participation ratesLabour force participation rate by age and sex, 2009


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an

The elderly is employed in CH and some Scandinavian countries mostEmployment rate(1) of the elderly (55-64), 2008

Source: Eurostat 2008.(1) … Employment rates represent employed persons as a percentage of the same age population.

(2) … Targets set by the European Council in Lisbon (2000) and Stockholm (2001), to be achieved by 2010.


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Modern alternative: Temporary and

circular migration


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Temporary and circular migration should be of benefit for all parties

Source country

Labour migrants

Host country

Remittances

No brain drain

New ideas

Knowledge Skills New businesses

Flexibility

Additional labour force

Vacancies’ fill

http://www.google.at/imgres?imgurl=http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mUOmMlGoiJ4/TPoUCCIGl_I/AAAAAAAAAqc/UIVdUUbqltM/s1600/remittances.jpg&imgrefurl=http://citadeladvantage.blogspot.com/2010/12/western-union-remittances-now.html&h=416&w=554&sz=154&tbnid=jIcdcOgn3-enNM:&tbnh=100&tbnw=133&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dremittances%2Bpicture&zoom=1&q=remittances+picture&usg=__MF5oODjw7SArBwltnNycRO-znYs=&sa=X&ei=Yr9sTdnvB8fusgbO96XjBg&ved=0CCAQ9QEwAw

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However: Europe’s ageing societies cannot fix their problems just by

recruiting temporary migrants


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Thank you for your attention

[email protected]

key changes in migration trends since 1951...top 10 immigration countries* share of foreign-born...

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