key data turning tide

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KEY DATA

Rating BUY Sector relative Outperformer Price (INR) 3,423 12 month price target (INR) 4,500 Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 825/11.1 Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 49.4/16.0

What’s Changed Target Price

Rating/Risk Rating ⚊

QUICK TAKE

Turning tide

Britannia Industries’ (Britannia) Q1FY22 revenue (down 0.5% YoY) surpassed our estimate, whereas EBITDA (down 23% YoY) came in line. Volume inched up 1% YoY (base 21%) as mix included more value products compared to the base quarter.

We had highlighted the likely underperformance in Britannia’s stock

about six months back given Parle’s aggression, high base of H1FY21 and margin pressure. But now as base turns favourable in H2FY22, Britannia and Parle continue to gain market share from smaller players and margin should recover with gradual price hikes in addition to a good monsoon. Hence, we expect better performance. Retain ‘BUY’ with revised TP of INR4,500 and bring it among our top picks.

FINANCIALS (INR mn)

Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Revenue 1,31,361 1,39,363 1,53,193 1,68,209

EBITDA 25,093 23,703 27,416 30,754

Adjusted profit 18,512 17,514 20,417 23,020

Diluted EPS (INR) 77.0 72.8 84.9 95.7

EPS growth (%) 31.1 (5.4) 16.6 12.8

RoAE (%) 46.6 43.0 39.2 35.3

P/E (x) 44.5 47.0 40.3 35.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 33.1 34.7 29.6 26.0

Dividend yield (%) 2.2 0.9 1.0 1.1

PRICE PERFORMANCE

Sales surprise positively; margin under pressure

What we liked: Sales growth was flattish on a high base, 8.4% ahead of our estimate.

The company posted healthy two year sales growth of 26% despite second wave

disruptions. Pantry loading wasn’t significant this time around. The company

relaunched ‘GoodDay Chocochips’ and launched 50-50 Potazos in the North East.

What we did not like: Gross margin fell 328bps YoY (Nestle, also a food company,

though raw material not strictly comparable, saw gross margin expansion by 67bps

YoY). In our view, this difference is due to down trading in biscuits and resurgence of

Parle. EBITDA margin was plunged 469bps YoY.

In terms of adjacency businesses, in-home categories did well, but on-the-go

categories were impacted. ICD at INR4.7bn is lower than March 2021 level of

INR7.9bn. It is good development considering this is an important investor concern

however we will have to wait to see how the year end number shapes up.

Q1FY22 conference call: Key takeaways

Nepal continued to grow in double digits. Revenue was stable in July. The company

didn’t cut back on Milk Bikis’ advertisement. Milk Bikis has seen very good growth,

ahead of the company average. Inflation was about 7-8%.

Explore:

Outlook and valuations: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’

A robust product pipeline and deepening reach will help Britannia sustain

outperformance. A key monitorable is Parle gaining share from other players and

narrowing the share gap. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with revised TP of INR4,500 (from

INR4,195) as we roll forward to Dec-2022E. The stock is trading at 40.3x FY23E EPS.

Financials Year to March Q1FY22 Q1FY21 % Change Q4FY21 % Change

Net Revenue 34,035 34,207 (0.5) 31,308 8.7

EBITDA 5,538 7,169 (22.8) 5,054 9.6

Adjusted Profit 3,870 5,428 (28.7) 3,601 7.5

Diluted EPS (INR) 16.1 22.6 (28.7) 15.0 7.5

Above In line Below

Profit

Margins

Revenue Growth

Overall

36,000

39,600

43,200

46,800

50,400

54,000

3,325

3,450

3,575

3,700

3,825

3,950

Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

BRIT IN Equity Sensex

India Equity Research Consumer Staples August 2, 2021

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES RESULT UPDATE

Abneesh Roy Tushar Sundrani +91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 6620 3004

[email protected] [email protected]

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Video

https://www.edelweissresearch.com/Research/Company?Id=4396

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BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Securities Limited

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Financial Statements

Income Statement (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Total operating income 1,31,361 1,39,363 1,53,193 1,68,209

Gross profit 55,100 57,357 63,654 70,264

Employee costs 5,274 5,495 5,889 6,474

Other expenses 13,397 15,110 16,307 17,763

EBITDA 25,093 23,703 27,416 30,754

Depreciation 1,979 2,212 2,395 2,701

Less: Interest expense 1,109 1,256 1,120 1,040

Add: Other income 3,129 3,209 3,430 3,803

Profit before tax 25,142 23,447 27,332 30,817

Prov for tax 6,630 5,932 6,915 7,796

Less: Other adj 0 0 0 0

Reported profit 18,512 17,514 20,417 23,020

Less: Excp.item (net) 0 0 0 0

Adjusted profit 18,512 17,514 20,417 23,020

Diluted shares o/s 240 240 240 240

Adjusted diluted EPS 77.0 72.8 84.9 95.7

DPS (INR) 74.5 29.1 34.0 38.3

Tax rate (%) 26.4 25.3 25.3 25.3

Important Ratios (%) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Gross margin (%) 41.9 41.2 41.6 41.8

A&P (% of rev) 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2

Other exp (% of rev) 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.3

EBITDA margin (%) 19.1 17.0 17.9 18.3

Net profit margin (%) 14.1 12.6 13.3 13.7

Revenue growth (% YoY) 12.6 6.6 9.9 9.9

EBITDA growth (% YoY) 36.1 (5.5) 15.7 12.2

Adj. profit growth (%) 31.2 (5.4) 16.6 12.8

Assumptions (%) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

GDP (YoY %) (8.0) 9.0 7.0 7.0

Repo rate (%) 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.3

USD/INR (average) 75.0 73.0 72.0 71.0

Biscuits 11.5 6.5 10.0 10.0

Bread 15.5 7.5 8.5 8.5

Cake and rusk 15.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

Dairy 5.0 10.0 15.0 15.0

Int business 10.0 10.0 15.0 15.0

COGS % of sales 59.2 59.7 59.3 59.0

Valuation Metrics Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Diluted P/E (x) 44.5 47.0 40.3 35.8

Price/BV (x) 23.2 17.9 14.1 11.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 33.1 34.7 29.6 26.0

Dividend yield (%) 2.2 0.9 1.0 1.1

Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates

Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Share capital 241 241 241 241

Reserves 35,236 45,744 57,994 71,806

Shareholders funds 35,477 45,985 58,235 72,047

Minority interest 363 361 359 357

Borrowings 20,872 15,000 13,000 13,000

Trade payables 13,148 13,031 14,228 15,564

Other liabs & prov 9,688 9,688 9,688 9,688

Total liabilities 80,088 84,606 96,051 1,11,197

Net block 16,571 22,063 24,168 25,966

Intangible assets 1,359 1,359 1,359 1,359

Capital WIP 1,165 500 500 500

Total fixed assets 19,095 23,922 26,027 27,825

Non current inv 13,874 13,874 13,874 13,874

Cash/cash equivalent 16,046 17,148 25,352 37,435

Sundry debtors 2,573 3,763 4,137 4,548

Loans & advances 12,291 12,291 12,291 12,291

Other assets 16,209 13,607 14,371 15,223

Total assets 80,088 84,606 96,051 1,11,197

Free Cash Flow (INR mn) Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

Reported profit 25,128 17,512 20,415 23,018

Add: Depreciation 1,979 2,212 2,395 2,701

Interest (net of tax) (2,347) (1,954) (2,310) (2,763)

Others 0 0 0 0

Less: Changes in WC (562) (1,295) (60) (72)

Operating cash flow 18,511 19,066 20,560 23,029

Less: Capex 4,000 4,500 4,500 4,500

Free cash flow 14,511 14,566 16,060 18,529

Key Ratios Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

RoE (%) 46.6 43.0 39.2 35.3

RoCE (%) 45.2 41.8 42.8 40.6

Inventory days 44 43 35 35

Receivable days 8 8 9 9

Payable days 58 58 56 56

Working cap (% sales) 18.8 17.5 21.3 26.6

Gross debt/equity (x) 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2

Net debt/equity (x) 0.1 0 (0.2) (0.3)

Interest coverage (x) 20.8 17.1 22.3 27.0

Valuation Drivers Year to March FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E

EPS growth (%) 31.1 (5.4) 16.6 12.8

RoE (%) 46.6 43.0 39.2 35.3

EBITDA growth (%) 36.1 (5.5) 15.7 12.2

Payout ratio (%) 96.8 40.0 40.0 40.0



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Trends at a glance

Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22

Domestic volume growth (% YoY) 3.0 3.0 0.1 21.5 9.0 4.0 8.0 1.0

Consolidated sales growth (% YoY) 6.2 3.8 2.5 26.7 12.1 6.1 9.2 (0.5)

Standalone sales growth (% YoY) 7.1 3.1 0.9 24.8 11.4 5.7 9.7 0.5

Consolidated EBITDA margin (%) 16.1 16.8 15.8 21.0 19.8 19.3 16.1 16.3

Standalone EBITDA margin (%) 16.2 17.1 15.9 20.9 19.2 19.2 16.5 16.2

Consolidated Gross margin (%) 39.7 39.9 38.4 41.0 41.4 42.0 38.7 37.8

Standalone Gross margin (%) 39.4 39.9 38.3 40.2 40.5 41.6 39.4 37.2

Source: Company

Innovations during the quarter

Source: Company

Q1FY22 conference call takeaways

Overall

Rural segment saw strong negative impact due covid 2nd wave.

Company relaunched Goodday Chocochips with a surprise campaign and

launched 50-50 Potazos in the North East.

As on June 2021 end company had direct reach of 20.8 mn outlets.

The number of rural preferred dealers as on June 2021 end was 23000.

Focus states saw 1.33x growth compared to rest of the country.

Growth across channels was at 1.12x of FY20 levels.

Company continued to gain market share in the quarter.

Distribution and marketing ground operations saw some impact due to second

covid wave.

On air marketing campaigns were on track.

The company reduced inventory at distributors by 25% with better inventory

management system.

July month has seen some resurgence in sales as people move towards more

trusted brands.




No major cutback on Milkbikis ad campaigns, company continues to be focused

on this brand including Milkbikis Atta.

Operation on ground are coming back on track gradually.

Supply chain and factories continued to perform normally.

Some of the upcoming products include Wafer sticks, Milkbikis classic (already

rolled out now) and variants in Nutrichoice. These products are mostly in

premium range.

The Ranjangaon plant has 8 lines fully operational, company is putting up few

more lines. 110 percent of investment here is available for tax benefit.

Dairy facility will be added to the Ranjangaon, it will be ready by Q2FY23.

The Ranjangaon plant took an investment of INR6.5bn and produces revenue of

INR12bn, once all lines are fully utilized around 15-16bn turnover.

Company has planned a new plant in Tamil Nadu and in Uttar Pradesh, apart

from Ranjangaon expansion, totalling to about INR1.3bn capex.

The company saw an overall volume growth of 1% YoY.

Company aims to increase ecommerce contribution to 5% from present 2% level.

Company has applied for incentive under PLI, it is difficult to estimate extent of

benefit now.

Company has commercialized partnership in Egypt and Uganda who will start

manufacturing soon.

Modern trade should gradually return to normal levels.

ICDs were at INR4.7bn down from INR7.9bn.

The adjacencies business is about INR25bn, Dairy business is about 5% of overall

revenue.

International business

Lack of container availability impacted export growth.

Company has revamped its distribution system in Middle East.

Company saw around 25%YoY revenue growth in Nepal despite covid impact.

Adjacency business

In-home category did well, but on-the-go category was impacted.

Flat wafers and rolls plant will be operational in Q2FY22.

Milk collection has been ramped up to 2x of last year to gear up for backend.

Raw material and margins

Flour and sugar saw a 5% and 2% deflation respectively.

Milk and RPO saw 13% and 49% inflation respectively.

Overall basket of commodities saw steep inflation of around 7-8%.

Company has started to take calibrated price increase.




Company has been aggressive on cost efficiencies.

Crude and palm oil prices saw continued inflation.

The price hikes taken have already been negated by inflation presently.

Outlook and valuation: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’

Britannia is the value leader in the biscuit category (ahead of Parle) and has

sustained market share gains. We believe the company’s growth will continue to

outstrip the industry in FY22. In the long term as well, Britannia’s deepening

distribution network, particularly in rural, with focus on driving growth in states it

has a weak standing in—Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan—

will hold it in good stead. The company’s aggregate growth has improved with the

rise in its market share.

Britannia is also plugging gaps in its portfolio. It is evolving into a total foods

company with the launch of wafer biscuits, croissants, salty snacks, etc. Meanwhile,

the company is focusing on expanding and deepening its product offerings and

tapping into adjacent categories such as cake, rusk and bread. Going ahead, watch

out for a strong innovation pipeline in these categories. It also has big plans in the

dairy business, poised for a leg-up once the new plant comes on stream. We remain

optimistic on Britannia’s execution capabilities and potential to scale up its dairy

portfolio.

Britannia’s cost-saving initiatives (targeting ~2.1% of revenue per year) continue to

be robust, helping it sustain margin expansion. A gradual improvement in the

product mix will also aid gross and EBITDA margins. A key monitorable is Parle

gaining market share from other players and narrowing the market share gap. We

maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with revised TP of INR4,500 (from INR4,195) as we roll forward

to Dec-2022. The stock is trading at 40.3x FY23E EPS.

One year forward P/E

Source: Edelweiss Research

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Au

g-1

7

Feb

-18

Au

g-1

8

Feb

-19

Au

g-1

9

Feb

-20

Au

g-2

0

Feb

-21

Au

g-2

1

(IN

R)

40x45x

50x

3

55x

60x

35x

30x




Consolidated sales growth

Source: Company

Standalone sales growth

Source: Company

Gross margin

Source: Company

-5.0

2.0

9.0

16.0

23.0

30.0

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

(%)

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

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FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

(%)

30.0

33.0

36.0

39.0

42.0

45.0

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

(%)




EBITDA margin

Source: Company

Volume growth

Source: Company

Commodity watch

Source: Company

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

(%)

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

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1

Q1

FY2

2

(%)




Market share movement

Source: Company




Financial snapshot (INR mn)

Year to march Q1FY22 Q1FY21 % change Q4FY21 % change FY21 FY22E FY23E

Net sales 33,519 33,845 (1.0) 30,381 10.3 1,28,830 1,37,363 1,50,993

Other operating Income 515 362 42.3 926 (44.4) 2,531 2,000 2,200

Total Income 34,035 34,207 (0.5) 31,308 8.7 1,31,361 1,39,363 1,53,193

Cost of materials 20,865 19,959 4.5 18,636 12.0 76,261 82,006 89,539

Employee cost 1,393 1,370 1.7 1,242 12.2 5,274 5,495 5,889

Other Expenditure 6,239 5,709 9.3 6,375 (2.1) 14,041 15,797 17,213

Total Expenditure 28,497 27,037 5.4 26,254 8.5 1,06,269 1,15,660 1,25,777

EBITDA 5,538 7,169 (22.8) 5,054 9.6 25,093 23,703 27,416

Depreciation 491 480 2.3 528 (7.1) 1,979 2,212 2,395

EBIT 5,047 6,690 (24.6) 4,526 11.5 23,114 21,491 25,021

Other inc 605 937 (35.5) 632 (4.3) 3,129 3,209 3,430

Interest net 342 256 33.6 237 44.4 1,109 1,256 1,120

Profit Before Tax 5,310 7,370 (28.0) 4,921 7.9 25,134 23,445 27,330

Provision for Tax 1,442 1,944 (25.8) 1,326 8.7 6,630 5,932 6,915

Exceptional Items (Net of Tax) - (1) - -6 0 0

Reported Profit 3,870 5,427 (28.7) 3,601 7.5 18,506 17,514 20,417

Adjusted Profit 3,870 5,428 (28.7) 3,601 7.5 18,510 17,514 20,417

No. of Shares outstanding (mn) 240 240 - 240 - 240.5 240.5 240.5

Adjusted Diluted EPS 16.1 22.6 (28.7) 15.0 7.5 77.0 72.8 84.9

As % of net revenues

Cost of materials 62.2 59.0 328 61.3 91 59.2 59.7 59.3

Employee cost 4.1 4.0 9 4.0 13 4.0 3.9 3.8

Other Expenditure 18.3 16.7 164 20.4 (203) 10.7 11.3 11.2

EBITDA 16.3 21.0 (469) 16.1 13 19.1 17.0 17.9

Net profit 11.4 15.9 (450) 11.5 (13) 14.1 12.6 13.3

Tax Rate 27.2 26.4 78 26.9 21 26.4 25.3 25.3

Source: Edelweiss Research, Company




Company Description

Britannia is the value leader in the biscuit category and one of the oldest brands in

India. Britannia has a presence in the biscuit, bread, cakes, rusk and dairy segment.

In biscuits the company has brands like Good Day, Crackers, Nutrichoice, Marie Gold,

Tiger, Milk Bikis, Jim Jam, Bourbon, Little Hearts, Pure Magic and Nice Time.

Britannia is focussed on driving growth through its 7 power brands – GoodDay, Tiger,

Marie, Milk Bikis, 50:50, Treat and Nutri Choice. Britannia is present in dairy with

value added products like cheese, yogurt, flavoured milk, butter etc and plans to go

for full integration of this business. Apart from this the company is also present in

cakes and rusks which remain a key focus area. On the international front Britannia

exports to many countries and has international subsidiary in Middle East.

Investment Theme

Britannia is expected to outperform the industry growth led by strong innovation

pipeline and distribution expansion. The company is focusing on reducing the gap

with Parle and is driving inroads in the market where it is weak i.e. the hinterland.

Britannia is not only launching new products but also relaunching its key brands (like

GoodDay, Milk BIkis and Tiger) which are yield good results. The company is soon

going to commission its R&D facility which will also give a boost to innovation.

Britannia is however targeting cost savings of INR2.3–2.7bn for FY20, which will

protect margins, while rising mix of premium products (versus the value segment)

will boost margins.

Key Risks

Increased competitive intensity: Rising competitive intensity (especially from players

like Patanjali) can potentially result in volume pressures. Also, it can result in

increased A&P spends and investments towards the brand resulting in margin

pressure. Maintaining market share becomes challenging in such a scenario.

Raw material prices: Rise in the raw material prices like wheat, flour, RPO, milk can

lead to pressure on the gross margins. Inability to pass on the pricing pressure to

consumers due to higher competition can result in further pressure.

Rural slowdown: Biscuit is a highly penetrated category and slowdown, particularly

in rural areas, will lead to slowing of the category growth rates.

Failure in new innovations and segments: Britannia has a strong pipeline of new

innovations and it also plans to solidify its hold in the dairy, cake, rusk and

international markets. However, failure of new launches and disappointing entry in

new segments cannot be ruled out completely.




Additional Data Management

MD Varun Berry

CFO Mr. N Venkataraman

CS Mr. T.V. Thulsidass

Non Ex Chairman Mr. Nusli N Wadia

Auditor Walker Chandiok & Co LLP

Holdings – Top 10* % Holding % Holding

LIC 6.64 Sbi Arbitrage 1.07

Arisaig Partner 1.51 Sbi Funds 1.07

Arisaig India 1.50 Nomura Holdings 0.95

Blackrock Inc 1.18 Vanguard 0.90

Icici Pru AMC 1.11 Fundrock Manage 0.74

*Latest public data

Recent Company Research Date Title Price Reco

20-May-21 ICDs ruffle investors; focus on GoAir IP; Edel Flash

3534 Buy

27-Apr-21 Volumes strong; high costs dent margin ; Result Update

3540 Buy

08-Feb-21 Growth moderates as expected; Result Update

3542 Buy

Recent Sector Research Date Name of Co./Sector Title

30-Jul-21 Marico Gross margin disappoints; H2 brighter; Result Update

29-Jul-21 Colgate-Palmolive Market share growth critical for re-rati; Result Update

28-Jul-21 Nestle India Consistent despite covid blues; Result Update

Rating Interpretation

Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research

Daily Volume

Source: Bloomberg

Rating Distribution: Edelweiss Research Coverage

Buy Hold Reduce Total

Rating Distribution* 173 54 19 247

>50bn >10bn and <50bn <10bn Total

Market Cap (INR) 215 39 5 259

*1 stocks under review

Rating Rationale

Rating Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy: >15%

Hold: >15% and <-5%

Reduce: <-5%

TP3,261

TP3,588

TP4,140

2125

2530

2935

3340

3745

4150

Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

(IN

R)

BRIT IN Equity Buy Hold Reduce0

2

4

6

8

10

Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

(Mn

)




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Aditya Narain

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