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Key FindingsMay 2021

EMBARGOEDFINDINGS NOT FOR RELEASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MAY 26

Introduction

George FontasFounder & CEOFontas Advisors

Adam RosenblattPresident,Core Decision Analytics Pulse of the Primary is a three-part polling series examining

the 2021 Democratic primary for NYC mayor. Sponsored by Fontas Advisors, these polls are independent and not affiliated with any candidate campaign nor any independent expenditure effort for or against a particular candidate.

2021 NYC Mayoral Race: Timeline of key dates

January February March April May JuneF S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

PULSE of the PRIMARY(May 15-19)

Election Day(June 22)

PULSE of the PRIMARY(March 15-18)

PULSE of the PRIMARY(January 20-25)

CFB filing deadline (Jan 15)

First televised debate(May 13)

Certification deadline (April 26)

CFB filing deadline (May 21)

We are here

New York Post endorses Adams

(May 10)

Jean KimStringer

allegations

Lindsey Boylan Cuomo

allegations

Jan 6

PresidentialInauguration

Yang campaign

launch

Start of Early Voting

(June 12)

First TV ads airedfor Donovan & McGuire

(Feb 9)

SEIU 1199 endorses Wiley

(Feb 19)

Petitioningstarts

(March 2)

Petitioningends

(March 29)

New York Times endorses Garcia

(May 10)

NY Daily Newsendorses Garcia

(May 16)

Matching fundsdisbursement

(April 15)

CFB filing deadline &matching funds disbursed

(March 15)

New Yorkers age 16+eligible for vaccine

(April 6)

MethodologyOn behalf of Fontas Advisors, Core Decision Analytics (CODA) conducted N=800 live telephone interviews (landline & cell) fromSaturday May 15 – Wednesday May 19, 2021 among NYC Democratic Primary election likely voters.

Interviews were sampled from the NYC voter file and all likely voters interviewed had to say they are registered to vote as aDemocrat in one of the five boroughs and that they will “definitely” or “probably” vote in the June primary.

The overall margin of error is +/-3.46% at the 95% confidence interval and higher for subgroups.

Volunteered responses indicated by “(Vol.)”.

Some percentages may add to more or less than 100% due to rounding.

Full poll results available at PulseOfThePrimary.com

Where relevant, tracked findings reflect the following previous Fontas/CODA Pulse of the Primary studies:

• March 15-18: N=800 live telephone interviews among NYC Democratic Primary likely voters

• January 20-25: N=842 online interviews among NYC Democratic Primary likely voters

CANDIDATE AWARENESSInsights On

All eight major candidates have +50% name ID

89%

77% 75%

65% 62%57% 55%

51%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100% I would like to read you the names of some of the people who will be on the ballot in the June Democratic primary for mayor. Please tell me if this is someone you have heard of, or not.

Andrew Scott Eric Shaun Ray Maya Kathryn Dianne

Yang Stringer Adams Donovan McGuire Wiley Garcia Morales

% H

eard

of

Several candidates have experienced dramatic rise in “Name ID”: Garcia (+26), McGuire & Morales (+24), Donovan (+21)

84%

66%

60%

33%

25%

33% 33%

25%

85%

64% 62%

44%38%

42%

29% 27%

89%

77% 75%

65%62%

57% 55%51%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

MARJAN

January March

Andrew Scott Eric Shaun Ray Maya Kathryn Dianne

Yang Stringer Adams Donovan McGuire Wiley Garcia Morales

% H

eard

of

May

MAY

+15 +26 +24

+13 +13

+21+24

THE STATE OF THE RACEInsights On

Entering the final stretch, here’s the state of the race:(Direct comparison of March May)

March

8%

13%

5%4%

2% 2%

8%7%

1%50%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%May

Andrew Eric Maya Scott Ray Shaun Kathryn Dianne Someone UndecidedYang Adams Wiley Stringer McGuire Donovan Garcia Morales else

16%

10%

6%5%

4%

2% 2% 2%1%

50%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Andrew Eric Maya Scott Ray Shaun Kathryn Dianne Someone UndecidedYang Adams Wiley Stringer McGuire Donovan Garcia Morales else

QUESTION TEXT: Please tell me which of these would you vote for as your first choice if the election were held today, or are you undecided? NOTE: Some percentages may add to more or less than 100% due to rounding.

A deeper-dive under the hood to understand the horserace

9%5% 5% 3% 4% 3% 1% 1%

26%4%

3% 3%2% 2% 1%

1% 1%

23%

5%

5%

5%

5%

3%

3%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

18%

13%11%

9% 9%7%

4% 4%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

% V

ote

Do you think you would DEFINITELY or PROBABLY vote for [X] as your first choice?

EricAdams

AndrewYang

KathrynGarcia

MayaWiley

DianneMorales

ScottStringer

Ray

McGuireShaun

DonovanSomeone

else Undecided

DefinitelyProbably

FOLLOWUP IF UNDECIDED

FOLLOWUP IF DECIDED

Please tell me which of these would you vote for as your first choice if the election were held today, or are you undecided?

I know you said you are undecided for first choice, though which candidate – if any – do you lean towards?

NOTE: Some percentages may add to more or less than 100% due to rounding.

“Leaners”

A deeper-dive under the hood to understand the horserace

9%

5% 5%3% 4% 3%

1% 1%

26%

4%

3% 3%

2%2%

1%

1% 1%

5%

5%3%

4% 2%

2%

2% 1%

18%

13%11%

9%9%

7%4%

4%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

% V

ote

I know you said you are undecided for first choice, though which candidate – if any – do you lean towards?

Do you think you would DEFINITELY or PROBABLY vote for [X] as your first choice?

EricAdams

AndrewYang

KathrynGarcia

MayaWiley

DianneMorales

ScottStringer

Ray

McGuireShaun

DonovanSomeone

elseTrue

Undecided

DefinitelyProbably

FOLLOWUP IF UNDECIDED

FOLLOWUP IF DECIDED

Please tell me which of these would you vote for as your first choice if the election were held today, or are you undecided?


Entering the final stretch, here’s the state of the race:

26%

18%

13%11%

9% 9%7%

4% 4%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

% V

ote

EricAdams

AndrewYang

KathrynGarcia

MayaWiley

DianneMorales

ScottStringer

Ray

McGuireShaun

DonovanSomeone

elseTrue

Undecided

Please tell me which of these would you vote for as your first choice if the election were held today, or are you undecided? [INCLUDING FOLLOWUP: I know you said you are undecided for first choice, though which candidate – if any – do you lean towards?]


The leading contenders each have noticeable advantages across key demographics: gender, age, race, and boro

All NYC Dem Primary Likely Voters (%)

Gender Age Race Boro

M F 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ WHT BLK HSP ASN OTH BRNX BRKLYN MNHTN QNS STNISL

Eric Adams 18 18 18 10 17 23 20 7 32 17 12 16 17 26 8 19 14

Andrew Yang 13 13 13 16 12 13 13 12 9 18 21 24 13 11 13 16 18

Kathryn Garcia 11 12 10 12 11 11 8 21 2 7 15 3 6 9 17 9 10

Maya Wiley 9 9 10 8 12 10 7 8 13 7 9 3 10 11 8 9 4

Dianne Morales 9 10 8 27 6 2 2 13 1 12 18 7 6 14 6 6 0

Scott Stringer 7 7 6 3 4 7 12 11 4 6 0 2 6 1 13 6 15

Ray McGuire 4 5 3 2 3 6 5 2 6 6 0 0 8 2 5 3 8

Shaun Donovan 4 4 3 1 4 3 7 4 4 4 0 7 5 3 2 5 5

Someone else 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 2

True Undecided 26 21 29 21 31 25 26 22 30 23 23 38 28 23 27 27 23

Please tell me which of these would you vote for as your first choice if the election were held today, or are you undecided? [INCLUDING FOLLOWUP: I know you said you are undecided for first choice, though which candidate – if any – do you lean towards?]

RANKED CHOICEInsights On

With less than a month until the election, the majority of NYC voters are now aware of ranked choice voting

12%

15%

27%

29%

23%

30%

24%

19%

15%

34%

41%

26%

2%

1%

The upcoming Democratic primary for mayor will use a new system called “ranked choice voting.” How much have you heard, read, or seen recently about “ranked choice voting”?

JAN

MAR

“A lot” “Some”Just a little Nothing at all DK

(Vol.)MAY

72% have heard, read, or seen “a lot” or “some” or “just a little” recently about RCV

Nearly 1 in 3 say they plan only pick a “first choice”

57%

14%

30%

Don’t know / Not sure (Vol.)

As you may know, ranked choice voting means you can rank candidates. This means you can vote not only for your first choice candidate, but also pick a second choice, up to five.

Thinking about the race for mayor, do you plan to rank a second candidate, or do you plan to only vote for your first choice candidate?

Yes, will pick a second

No, will only vote for first choice

Younger, white, Manhattanites much more likely to say they plan to rank more than one candidate for mayor




Gender Age Race BoroM F 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Wht Blk Hsp Bx Bk Mh Qns

Yes, will pick a second 57 60 54 71 55 57 45 74 46 50 47 57 70 48

No, will only vote for first choice 30 27 31 20 32 31 35 16 36 41 38 28 20 35

Don’t know / not sure (Vol.) 14 13 14 9 13 12 20 10 18 10 15 15 10 17

57% 60%54%

71%

55% 57%

45%

74%

46%50% 47%

57%

70%

48%

30% 27%31%

20%

32% 31%35%

16%

36%41% 38%

28%20%

35%

14% 13% 14%9% 13% 12%

20%

10%18%

10%15% 15%

10%17%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%Thinking about the race for mayor, do you plan to rank a second

candidate, or do you plan to only vote for your first choice candidate?

Significant disparities noticeable among who plans to rank versus those who say they might only vote for a first choice

Don’t know / Not sure (Vol.)



Among the 18% who say








Adams Yang Garcia Wiley Morales Stringer McGuire Donovan1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice

Yes, will pick a second 57 48 50 87 72 74 69 56 40

No, will only vote for first choice 30 43 43 10 13 21 23 41 44

Don’t know / not sure (Vol.) 14 9 7 3 15 5 9 3 16



57%48% 50%

87%

72% 74%69%

56%

40%

30%

43% 43%

10% 13%21% 23%

41% 44%

14%9% 7% 3%

15%5% 9% 3%

16%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%Thinking about the race for mayor, do you plan to rank a second

candidate, or do you plan to only vote for your first choice candidate?

George Fontas Adam RosenblattFounder & CEO, Fontas [email protected]

President, Core Decision [email protected]

Subscribe to receive future poll results and analysis at

PulseOfThePrimary.com

Concluding Thoughts & Discussion

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Appendix

Ranked choice analyses inconclusive, especially given how many uncertain are about 1st choice – let alone 2nd choice

AMONG THOSE WHO SAY THEY WOULD RANK SECOND CHOICE

CANDIDATE







Adams Yang Garcia Wiley Morales Stringer1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice 1st choice

48% say they 50% say they 87% say they 72% say they 74% say they 69% say theyhave a 2nd choice have a 2nd choice have a 2nd choice have a 2nd choice have a 2nd choice have a 2nd choice

Eric Adams N/A 31 17 18 2 6

Andrew Yang 19 N/A 7 12 0 22

Kathryn Garcia 10 10 N/A 13 25 29

Maya Wiley 8 11 22 N/A 54 13

Dianne Morales 2 2 14 17 N/A 5

Scott Stringer 25 8 11 9 3 N/A

Ray McGuire 13 5 10 16 3 0

Shaun Donovan 8 12 2 2 0 10

Undecided / don't know (Vol.) 14 21 17 14 13 16

AMONG THOSE WHO PLAN TO RANK A SECOND CANDIDATE: Who is your second choice candidate for mayor?~8% of all voters ~7% of all voters ~10% of all voters ~6% of all voters ~7% of all voters ~5% of all voters

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