December 2019

KEY STATISTICS ON RWANDA

Rwanda in the heart of Africa

National Boundary

Province Boundary

District Boundary

National Park

Key facts

Capital Kigali

Population 12.4 million (2019)1

Nominal GDP FRW 8,189 billion (2018, approx. US$ 9.5 billion)2

GDP Growth 8.6 % (2018)3

Literacy Rate 73%4

External Debt (% of GDP)43.0% (End 2019)

5

Time to Start a Business 6 hours6

Credit Rating B+ (stable); B (Positive)7

Currency Rwandan Franc (892.27 FRW) = 1 US$ (07th

May 2019)8

1. National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR)

2. NISR; NBR for exchange

3. NISR

4. NISR – EICV5 FY2016/17 (% of people ages 15 and above)

5. MINECOFIN (End June 2019)

6. World Bank Doing Business Report 2019

7. Fitch March 2019; Standard & Poor’s February 2019

8. BNR

Rwanda at a Glance

2

More than 1,000,000 million lives lost in the genocide against Tutsi;

Stagnating economy shrank by 50% (average growth of 2.2% between 1985 and

1993);

64% of inflation;

Poverty rate of 78% with rapid population growth rate of 3.4% (between 1985 –

1990);

Entire socio-economic fabric destroyed and dilapidated infrastructure;

Large number of displaced persons;

More than 140,000 genocide suspects in prisons;

Capacity gaps and inexistent institutional framework - 96% civil servants with no

higher education qualification;

Complete restart was required

1994 Genocide Against Tutsi

3

A series of Development Strategies Implementing the Vision 2020 have been developed

PRSP 1 (2002 – 2006)

• Recovery from post conflict situation;

• Major gains in social sectors e.g. health and education;

• Poverty reduced by 3% points (60% to 57%).

EDPRS 1 (2008 – 2012)

• Preparation for take off;

• High poverty reduction (12% points);

• Reduced inequality;

• High growth (average 8.2%);

• Strong contribution to achievement of MDGs.

EDPRS 2 (2013 – 2018)

• Rapid growth 11.5%;

• Fast poverty reduction (15% points) to less than 30%;

• Closing trade balance with rapid growth of exports (28%);

• Increased private sector investment.

1. Key Achievements over the last two decades

Rwanda’s Development Hat TrickGDP Per Per Capita (US$)

Sustained economic growth has lifted more than

1 million people out of poverty

Rapid economic growth and macroeconomic

stability: resilient to shocks;

Important poverty reduction;

Reduced inequality and increased access to

services: health, education, financial inclusion;

Rwanda’s development hat trick over last two

decades

5

374

146225

579

774 787

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990 1994 2000 2010 2017 2018

Agriculture29%

Industry16%

Services48%

Taxes less Subsidies

7%

Agriculture37%

Industry13%

Services43%

Taxes less Subsidies

7%

2005

2018

Economic Transformation

60.4

57

44.939.1 38.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

GDP Growth (left) Poverty rate (right)

Linear (Poverty rate (right))

Self-financing and Financing of our Development

Increasing proportion of the budget

financed from domestic resources

and loans as opposed to grants.

30%

55.7%

86%

70%

44.3%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 2005 2019/20

Domestic Resources & loans (% of total Budget)

External Ressources (% of total budget)

Total Budget (in billion Frw)

With prudent borrowing for investment, sustainable debt

levels have been maintained since Rwanda accessed debt

relief from IMF/WB and other creditors in 2006;

At end 2018, Rwanda’s total PPG debt was

estimated at US$ 4.9 billion, representing

53.6%of GDP, of with:

38.5% of GDP is external debt and mostly

concessional at 79% of total debt;

10.9% of GDP is domestic debt.

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of Rwanda

indicates that Rwanda has a low risk of debt distress.

Total Public Debt (in % of GDP)National budget - Sources of Financing

13.1 10.9

87.5

58.4

16.315.8

38.5

100.6

92.8

68.0

24.9 24.5

53.6

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Domestic Debt External Debt Total Debt

Social Progress

Under 5 mortality per 1,000 : 50 (MDG Target:50.1)

Maternity Mortality per 100,000 : 210 (MDG target: 268)

Life expectancy : from 49 years in 2000 to 66 years by 2017;

Literacy rates (aged 15 to 24) : from 48% in 2000 to 86.5% in 2017;

Financial inclusion : from 48% in 2008 to 89% in 2016;

Mobile phones owners : from 6% in 2006 to 79.2% in 2016;

Pupils – qualified teacher ratio in Secondary : 28-1 in 2016;

Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population): 87.3% in 2017;

Access to clean water (% of population) :88.5% in 2016;

A hub for rapidly integrating East Africa : located centrally bordering 3 countries in East

Africa, part of EAC Common Market and Customers Union with market potential of over 125 million

people

Market of over 12 million people with a rapidly growing middle class.

Social progress has accompanied economic progress

Social progress has been possible due to good governance

Kigali representative of this progress:

Clean and green city, with the lowest crime of any capital city in the region;

Winner of UN Habitat Award (2008) the highest award for an urban area;

Safe for women to walk alone (2nd Globally – Gallup report).

8

Rwanda on International Scene

Rwanda

3nd Country in Cyber Security

in Africa

2nd Easiest Place to do Business in

Sub-Saharan Africa

2nd most competitive in

Africa

1st safest place in Africa

9th Best Place to be a Woman

Globally

7th Global Most efficient Government

WB Report 2019

World Travel Guide

2018

Global Cyber Security

Index 2018

Gallup Global Report 2019

World Economic Forum

2015

Global

Competitiveness

report 2018/19

WEF:Global Gender

Gap Index 2020

2. The Vision

Vision 2050 Ambitions and Growth Requirements

10

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

2017 Baseline 2020

Vision 2020

2024 NST1 2035 Upper Middle Income 2050 High Income

GD

P p

er

cap

ita (

in c

urr

en

t U

SD

)

Avg. growth of 12%

over 2025-2035

Avg. growth of >9%

over 2036-2050

Avg. growth of

9.1%

over NST1

NST1- Working Towards Building the Production Capacity of the Economy

• Needs to orient the economy towards:

– Higher Value added activities Growth in labor inputs, improvement in education,

Technology/Innovation

– More production of tradeable efforts in boosting private investment - savings – capital inflows),

scale, strengthened regional and global trade linkages etc.

1011

1589

3232

1923

2576

4348

-772-1117

-1588

1153

1791

3780

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2017 2020 2024

X goods

M goods

Current Account

Gross official reserves

14.4%17.6%

21.2%

8.3%

8.6%

9.9%22.6%

26.1%

31.1%

2017 2020 2024

Public investment

Private Investment incl inventories

Total investment

12.1%

16.6%

23.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2017 2020 2024

Domestic savings

NST1- Working Towards Building the Production Capacity of the Economy

(Ctd.)

• Structural Transformation Expected:

•Drivers: The services (exports of services - tourism, MICE) and Industry sector

(large improvement in mining production, infrastructure, industrial parks operational

boosting exports) accompanied by robust performance in the agriculture

sector (gains in land and agricultural efficiency labor movement towards higher

value sectors).

30.8 29.0% 28.0% 27.0% 26.0% 24.9% 24.0% 22.9%

15.8 16.2 18.2% 19.0% 19.7% 20.5% 21.1% 21.8%

46.4 47.8 47.4% 47.6% 47.7% 47.8% 48.0% 48.3%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Agriculture Industry Services

Key Prerequisites and drivers for future Growth in Rwanda

High Growth

Highly-developed

Humancapital Competitive

Private Sector

Well-managed

UrbanizationEfficient and Accountable institutions

Modern Agriculture/Food sector

Trade and regional

integration

Key Objectives/Targets of NST 1

Create 1,500,000 jobs (over

214,000 annually)

Grow exports (“Made in

Rwanda”) by 17% annually

and develop local industries

Double tourism revenues to

USD 800 million by 2024 from

USD 404 million in 2016

Ensure digital literacy for all

youth (16 to 30 years) and

60% of adults by 2024

Increase long term savings

and 100% financial inclusion

(from 89% in 2017)

Double agriculture productivity

on key crops (range from 30 to

100%)

Increase irrigation from 48,508

ha (2017) to 102,284 ha in

202414

Economic Transformation Social Transformation Transformational Governance

Promoting Kinyarwanda as a

language, values and culture

Promoting unity and

reconciliation

Promoting home grown

solutions

Safety and Security of

citizens and property

Contributing to peace and

security in Africa and globally

Fight corruption in all its

forms

Fight against genocide

ideology in Rwanda and

anywhere in the world

Increase districts revenue

capacity to finance their

development needs by

promoting local economic

development

Eradication of extreme poverty

100% access to water,

electricity and broadband

Universal access to Quality

health (health facilities 100%

access to basic infrastructure)

Reproductive health and family

planning to increase

contraceptive prevalence from

48% (2013/14) to 60% in 2024

Universal access to Quality

education (education facilities

100% access to basic

infrastructure)

100% access to basic

sanitation and hygiene

Promoting affordable housing

2. Recent Economic Developments and Projections

16

Growth has accelerated since 2018, supported by services and industry sectors with the

recovery of the construction sector and a broad-based growth in services.

Over the MT, Real GDP growth is projected to average 8%. Full implementation of our

structural reform agenda will further boost growth potential (Agriculture sector is expected to

perform well in food and export crops due to continuing investments to improve seeds and to

scale irrigation; current investment to establish a smelting plant to add value to our minerals will

boost the mining sector and revenues, completion of the Bugesera Airport to support further the

tourism sector etc.)

GDP Growth projections 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

GDP 6.2% 8.9% 6.0% 6.1% 8.6% 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%

AGRICULTURE 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.4% 5.2%

Food crops 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0% 4.3% 3.6% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%

INDUSTRY 3.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 10.0% 11.8% 11.9% 11.0% 12.3%

Mining & quarrying 25.0% -5.0% 10.0% 21.0% 2.0% 10.4% 14.9% 15.2% 18.4%

Manufacturing -13.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 11.0% 9.3% 7.2% 9.1% 8.8%

Construction 10.0% 15.0% 5.0% -3.0% 14.1% 15.1% 14.8% 11.0% 13.0%

SERVICES 7.0% 10.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 8.8% 8.3% 8.1% 7.7%

Real Sector

External Sector

Exports increased over the past years and more recently with the made in Rwanda policy;

Tourism receipts have experienced a very strong annual growth of 9.0% on average between 2009 and

2019. A continued focus on MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences & Events) is expected to boost tourism

receipts in the future, aided by the construction of a new international airport.

Remittances recorded a 22.1% increase between 2017 and 2018, following a 24.1% increase between

2016 and 2017. Remittances tripled since 2009.

The current account deficit is projected to rise to 10.6 % of GDP in 2019 (from 7.9% in 2018) and decline

thereafter(7.3% in 2023), reflecting frontloaded public investment spending to meet some of the NST 1

priority investments.

Foreign inflows have been increasing steadily (in million USD)Current account balance improvement to continue over the

Medium Term

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Perc

ent

of

GD

P

Valu

e in m

ln U

SD

Years

Export goods and services Import goods and services

Current account % GDP

-

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

-

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

Valu

e in m

ln U

SD

Valu

e

Years

Reserves (Right) Remittances(Credit)

Tourism(credit) Foreign Direct Investment

Exports receipts(credit)

Fiscal Policy

Domestic revenue mobilization, careful spending containment and strong debt

management have rendered fiscal and debt positions sustainable, while still allowing

for a growth-enhancing scaling up of public investment and social spending in the

Medium term.

Tax collections have consistently increased in recent years from less than 12% of GDP in

early 2010s to 16.5% of GDP in 2018/19, reflecting an improving level of efficiency in

revenue collection. The ratio is projected at 16.8% in 2021/22.

Debt Sustainability Indicators

Indicators 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Threshold

PV Debt/GDP 29.0 31.9 34.2 35.8 38.2 55

PV Debt/Exports 135.2 150.6 160.0 161.9 171.3 240

PV Debt service/

Exports 4.0 9.0 11.1 14.1 9.8 21

PV Debt service /

Revenues4.3 10.5 13.2 17.1 11.9 23

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy has kept inflation low while supporting macroeconomic stability and maintaining

broad exchange rate stability;

Inflation: In 2019, inflation increased on average by 2.0 (end November) and it is projected to

increase to 5% by end 2020 and to remain the same over the medium term.

Credit to private sector grew by 12.5% in November 2019 from 10.8% in 2018.

The Rwandan franc depreciated by 4.94% against the USD in 2019, while in 2018 it had

depreciated by 4.0%.

The medium term objective: maintain a low level of inflation and support credit to the

private sector growth.

EAC countries inflation rates

Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19

Uganda 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.0

Kenya 4.7 4.0 4.4 6.6 5.5 5.7 6.3 5.0 3.8 5.0 5.6

Tanzania 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.8

Rwanda 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.9 2.3 3.1 4.4 6.9

Burundi -3.8 -4.1 -2.9 -2.2 -2.4 -4.0 -2.6 -0.6 2.0 4.0 NA

3. The Development Impact

21

Poverty and Extreme poverty reduced

Poverty and Extreme Poverty has reduced considerably from 2000 to 2017.

78%

60.4%

44.9%

39.1% 38.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1994 2000 2011 2015 2017

Poverty

40%

24.1%

16.3% 16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2000 2011 2015 2017

Extreme Poverty

Source: EICV 5

22

Health has improved: Life expectancy increased

2.9%

2.4%2.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2000 2012 Vision 2020

Population Growth Rate (%)

46.4

29.1

51.2

64.5 66.6

1978 1991 2002 2012 2017

Life Expectancy

A national-wide rollout of healthcare, including health insurance coverage for over 80% of the

population contributed to the increase in life expectancy.

23

Health has improved for all- Mothers

6.1

4.6

4.2

4.9

3.4 3.6

6.3

4.8

4.3

2005 2010 2014/15

Fertility trends

Rwanda Urban Rural

1071

750

476

210

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

RDHS 2000 RDHS 2005 RDHS 2010 RDHS 2014-15

Maternal Mortality per 100,000

27% 28%

45%

69%

91%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RDHS 2000 RDHS 2005 RDHS 2007-08

RDHS 2010 RDHS 2014-15

Percentage of delivery in a Heath facility

Source: Demographic and Health Survey 2014-15

24

Health has improved for all-Children

107

196

86

152

62

103

50

76

32

50

IMR U5MR

Infant and Under Five Mortality:Number of deaths per 1000 live births

RDHS 2000 RDHS 2005 RDHS 2007/8 RDHS 2010 RDHS 2014/15

MDG 2015 target: 35

MDG 2015 target: 50.1

25

Increased Education

1,845

2,909

941,012

2,503,705

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2016 2018

Primary Schools Students Primary

150

1,728

20,533

658,285

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2016 2018Secondary Schools Students Secondary

Secondary Education Primary Education

Primary pupils in 2018 have increased more than

2.7 times and secondary students 32 times;

Tertiary institutions in 2018 have increased more

than 5.7 the number in 1995;

The number of students have increased 31.6 times

in the same period.7

40

2,821

89,160

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2016 2018

Tertiary Schools Student Tertiary

Tertiary Education

26

Jobs created & better access to financial services

48%

89% 90%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2016 Vision 2020

% of Adult Population Accessing Financial Services

Non Farm81%

Farm based19%

Total Jobs: 206,190

Non Farm Jobs: 166,058

Farm Jobs: 40,132

Source: Labor force surveys 2017 - 2018

Net Jobs Created between 2017 and 2018

27

Increasing Access to Basic Infrastructure

59%

73.2%

85%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000 2015 Vision 2020Target

% of Roads in Good Condition

58.5%

74.5%

84.8%87.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2006 2011 2015 2017

Improved Water Source

70.3%74.2%

85.0%87.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2006 2011 2015 2017

Improved Sanitation

Source: EICV 5

4. Country “Wealth” versus “GDP”

Wealth versus GDP

GDP is a measure of income, not wealth.

It values a flow of goods and services,

not a stock of assets.

– Figure1: With a GDP/capita of

US$764/year, or 2 US$/day, Rwanda

is considered a low-income country.

Wealth provides information about the

long-term health of an economy. A fall in

wealth indicates that a country is

depleting its assets and may not be able

to sustain its future GDP growth.

– Figure2: Based on the principles of

NCA, the total wealth for Rwanda is

estimated to be US$21 619/capita in

2014 terms . This is nearly 30 times

higher than the GDP/capita.

Wealth Accounting complements GDP

as it reflects the state of assets that

produce GDP

Figure 1 Rwanda: GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)Source: World Bank 2019

Figure 2 Rwanda: Total wealth per capita: US$21 619/capita (2014)

Note that natural capital is sub-divided into its parts.Source: Lange et al. (2018)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

GDP Per capita

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

YR 1995 YR 2000 YR 2005 YR 2010 YR 2014

Co

nst

an

t 2

01

4 U

SD

Mill

ion

Components of Natural Resource Wealth over Time -Rwanda

Forests Prot Area Cropland Pasture Energy NR Mineral NR

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

YR 1995 YR 2000 YR 2005 YR 2010 YR 2014

Co

nsta

nt 2

01

4 U

SD

Components of Natural Resource Wealth / Capita over Time -Rwanda

Forests / cap Prot Area / cap Cropland / cap

Pasture /cap Energy NR / cap Mineral NR / cap

Most of the improvement is in Cropland

Forests and protected areas are a small component of the total

Mineral and Energy resources have quite small shares

Rwanda shows improvement even in Natural Resources Wealth

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

YR 1995 YR 2000 YR 2005 YR 2010 YR 2014

Cons

tant

201

4 U

SD M

illio

n

Changes in Levels of National Wealth over Time - Rwanda

Produced Capital Renewable Natural CapitalNon-Renewable Natural Capital Human CapitalNet Foreign Assets

Large increase evident in Human Capital

Renewable natural resources = 2nd largest positive change

Rwanda – Changes in National Wealth (relative to 1995)

6. Conclusion

33

Success Factors

Visionary Leadership

Good Governance and accountability –low corruption levels, citizen participation,

decentralization

Inclusive development model – gender equality, pro-poor policies, promoting unity and

solidarity

Home grown initiatives (e.g. Umuganda, Gacaca, Girinka etc.) and innovations built on

the positives from the Rwandan culture and identity e.g. Agaciro (dignity), Kwigira,

Ubudashyikirwa (excellence), etc.

Use of ICT

Investment in human capital – mainly capacity building

Results oriented institutional framework – performance contracts

34

Some useful links for economic data and reports

MINECOFIN

Annual Economic Reports FY: http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=124

Macroeconomic and Budget public data: http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=173

Budget Framework Paper/ Budget Speeches/ Budget Execution Reports : http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=231&L=588

This Presentation: http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=165

NISR

GDP: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/statistical-publications/subject/gross-domestic-product-%28gdp%29

EICV: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/datasource/integrated-household-living-conditions-survey-5-eicv-5

Labor Force Survey: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/datasource/labour-force-survey-0

Demographic and Health Survey: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/datasource/demographic-and-health-survey-dhs

BNR

Monetary Policy and Financial Statement: https://www.bnr.rw/news-publications/publications/monetary-policy-financial-stability-

statement/

Balance of Payments: https://www.bnr.rw/browse-in/statistics/external-sector-statistics/

THANK YOU

Contact for detailed information or for any question on the presentation: macro@minecofin.gov.rw